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Diffusion Process
1. When a new product form is first introduced to the
market, consumers go through a process in determining
whether to adopt it.
2. Some consumers adopt a new product when it is first
introduced; others wait until the innovation has been on
the market for some time.
3. These different adoption rates mean that it typically
takes time for an innovative new product form to diffuse
throughout a market.
4. The diffusion process describes the adoption of an
innovation over time.
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sales Sales
Profit Time
Loss/profit
Progression of product “life” stages (sales & time)
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Market development
Product development
Penetration
Market development Enhancement
Market Product development Status quo
development Penetration Divestiture
Retrenchment
Product Vertical integration Liquidation
development Divestiture
Related diversification Harvesting
Unrelated
diversification Unrelated
diversification
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INTRODUCTION STAGE
§ High failure rates (slow sales initially)
§ Little to no competition
GROWTH STAGE
Begins when the product begins to break even
§ sales grow at an accelerated (increasing) rate
§ Many competitors enter the market
§ Large companies may acquire small pioneering
firms
§ Profits are healthy (because of demand)
§ R & D costs have been recovered
§ sales begin to level off
§ sales volume create economies of scale
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MATURITY STAGE
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DECLINE STAGE
Signaled by a long-run drop in sales
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Diffusion of Innovations
Source: Rogers, Everett M, Diffusion of Innovations, 4th ed. (New York: Free Press, 1995)
The mainstream
market
The early
market
Diffusion
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Adopter categories
Innovators
Early adopters
Early majority
Late majority
Laggards
People who are fundamentally committed to new technology on the grounds that it is
bound to improve our lives.
VISIONARIES
True revolutionaries in business and government who want to make a break with the
past and start a new future.
PRAGMATISTS
The mainstream market
Make the bulk of all technology infrastructure purchases. Neutral about technology
and look to adopt innovations only after a proven track record.
Conservatives
Pessimistic about their ability to gain any value from technology investments. Price-
sensitive, highly skeptical, and very demanding.
Skeptics
Ever-present critics, not potential customers. Goal of high-tech marketing is not to
sell to them but to sell AROUND them,.
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