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BROKING : INDUSTRY UPDATE
ADTV Comparison
Rs bn ICICI Securities IIFL Kotak Securities Motilal Oswal
600 Angel broking 5Paisa Geojit Financial JM Financial
300
200
100
0
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19
Source: Respective company investor presentation, HDFC sec Inst Research Note: ADTV for 5Paisa capital is available only annually.
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BROKING : INDUSTRY UPDATE
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
5 Paisa derives 75%+ broking 2019. This will ensure that financials are disclosed by
revenues from its mobile app. the company, which in turn improves credibility. Source: NSE handbook, HDFC sec Inst Research
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BROKING : INDUSTRY UPDATE
Broking Yields
Broking yields for most
brokerages have taken a hit ICICI Securities Kotak Securities Motilal Oswal Securities Geojit Financial Services 5Paisa
8.0 bps
during 9MFY19. Pricing
7.2
pressure and change in 7.0
product mix has lead to steep 6.1
6.0 5.6
fall in yields. 5.4
5.1
5.0 4.5 4.8
4.0 4.0 4.2
3.9 3.5 3.3 3.8 3.7
3.0 3.5 3.2 2.7
3.4
2.2
2.0 2.7 1.8 1.7
2.4
1.7
1.7 1.1
1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7
0.2 0.2
0.0
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19
Source: : Respective company investor presentations,HDFC sec Inst Research
Note: Kotak securities and 5 paisa capital’s core broking revenues are available only annually, thus yields not calculated quarterly.
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BROKING : INDUSTRY UPDATE
7.0% ICICI Securities Kotak Securities Motilal Oswal HDFC Securities India Infoline
6.0%
Revenue market share of ISEC
fell from 6.0% in FY14 to 5.1%
5.0% 5.1%
in FY18.
4.5%
4.0% 3.9%
3.6%
3.7%
3.2%
3.0% 3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.0%
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
Source: Respective broker web-sites, Angel broking DRHP, HDFC sec Inst Research
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Source: Respective company investor presentations, HDFC sec Inst Research. ADTV for 5Paisa capital is available only annually.
Industry Cash Delivery Volumes Are Falling Industry : Rising Share Of Derivatives ADTV
Cash Turnover (in tn) Delivery (%) - RHS Futures (%) Options (%) Cash (%)
90.0 40.0% 3.9
33.8%
Industry cash delivery 7.7 6.6 6.4 6.7 5.0 2.7
32.3%
100.0
80.0 35.0%
volumes fell from 30.4% in
70.0 30.0% 80.0
FY18 to 25.9% in FYTD.
31.6%
31.8%
30.7%
60.0 30.4%
25.0%
50.0 60.0
25.9%
20.0% 75.9 77.4 78.3 76.6 79.5 84.2 88.1
40.0
15.0% 40.0
30.0
20.0 10.0%
F&O volumes now have 20.0
10.0 5.0%
32.6 32.9 51.6 49.7 60.5 83.2 72.5 16.4 16.1 15.4 16.7 15.6
around 97% share which has - 0.0% -
11.9 9.1
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FYTD19
FYTD19
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
yields for most brokerages.
Source: NSE,BSE, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: NSE,BSE, HDFC sec Inst Research
Note: FY17 onwards product mix share is on ex prop basis.
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BROKING : INDUSTRY UPDATE
Cash delivery business will become Mr Kamath highlighted that revenues and PAT for
intensely more competitive FY19E are expected to grow ~60-70%.
The bigger threat for incumbents is the possibility of View: Keeping costs low will be vital to survive if
losing higher paying clients to the likes of discount discount brokers continue to grow. We believe that
Cash delivery business is the ISEC will continue to be under pressure as just its
brokers.
highest yielding product for employee costs were ~Rs 5.5bn in and total costs
brokerages. View: We believe this is a possibility as over the next were Rs 9.4bn in FY18. Even if adjusted for
year or two as 1) Zerodha gains credibility as a institutional equities and investment banking business
corporate, 2) The likes of 5 PAISA gain market share staff costs will still be high at ~Rs 4.4bn (HDFC Sec
and 3) New players such as PayTM money enter the estimate).
space.
On the contrary, Zerodha HDFC Securities, the second largest bank owned
doesn’t charge any brokerage While Zerodha currently does not levy any charges on broker, is better placed in this respect with as its total
on cash delivery trades and the cash delivery segment we believe it can easily costs were ~Rs 2.5bn in FY18.
that has been one of its USP. charge Rs 10/trade and still enjoy large profits. On its
current trade base, Zerodha will stand to rake in Rs Discounters disrupting the distribution
10mn/day just by charging Rs 10/trade on cash
delivery transactions. This means incremental
landscape
revenue of Rs 2.5bn p.a.
Zerodha also has a platform for Direct MF investing
Direct MF investing space is Zerodha works on tight costs and hence is named “Coin”. Current AUM size ~Rs 25bn.
getting very competitive with immensely profitable
entry of new players like ET
Zerodha began with a subscription based model for
Money and PayTM money. According to Mr. Kamath, Zerodha earned a PBT of Rs this platform- charging Rs 50/month; but this was
3.5bn and a PAT of Rs 2.5bn for FY18. later made free of cost for all customers.
Total fixed costs including employee variable Zerodha claims that Coin is the largest platform (by
expenses for FY18 were Rs 1.2bn. Other expenses AUM size) for direct MF investing in India.
were around Rs 0.8bn.
Mr Kamath highlighted that this space is getting very
Total employee strength of ~1200 (Client acquisition: competitive with entry of players such as PayTM
650, technology: 45, back office: 500). Most Money, ET Money, and 5 PAISA etc.
employees are aged around 25; hence salaries are
lower. View: While this business does not have an
Zerodha claims that Coin is independent top-line but over time the idea is to
the largest platform (by AUM Zerodha also does not provide research or trading allow customers to borrow against mutual fund units
advise to customers. Thus it does not have an active held in customers’ demat accounts and build a spread
size) for direct MF investing in
India.
research and marketing desk and is positioned as an income.
execution only platform. This helps keep costs lower.
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Revenue Split
(Rs mn) FY18
Mr. Kamath highlighted that Revenue from derivatives 2,845
revenues and PAT for FY19E Revenue from Cash Intraday 215
are expected to grow by Total broking revenues 3,060
~60%. Interest Income 990
Prop Trading 935
Others 515
Total Revenues 5,500
Note: Above numbers are HDFC sec estimates based on conversation with Mr Nithin Kamath
Operating Metrics
Particulars FY18
Total Orders per day (mn) 2.0
-F&O orders 0.6
Beginning April-19 the
-Cash delivery orders 0.8
company will also begin
-Cash intraday orders 0.6
offering MTF facility to
customers.
Estimated yield (%) 0.00320
Zerodha ADTV share (%) 9.0
Note: Above numbers are HDFC sec estimates based on conversation with Mr Nithin Kamath
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5 PAISA Financials
Income Statement
5Paisa is the discount broking (Rs mn) FY16 FY17 FY18 9MFY19
arm of IIFL group.
Revenue from operations -12 75 197 408
Expenses:
Employee benefits expenses 22 82 193 192
Other expenses 25 141 321 382
Total expenses 47 223 514 574
EBITDA -59 -149 -317 -166
Depreciation and amortization expense 0 3 7 11
EBIT -59 -151 -324 -177
Finance costs 18 13 8 43
5 Paisa now also offers direct EBT -77 -164 -332 -220
MF investing. Total tax expense -22 -47 -79 -58
PAT -55 -117 -253 -162
Note: Revenue in FY16 is negative due to loss from trading in securities. Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
Revenue Split
(Rs mn) FY16 FY17 FY18
Brokerage income 3 16 151
Fund based Activity -31 52 30
Financial Products Distribution 15 7 15
Total revenues -12 75 197
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
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Operating Metrics
Particulars FY17 FY18
5Paisa charges flat Rs 10 per Total Orders (mn) 1.6 15.1
order on all transactions. Days 246 246
Order per day (mn) 0.01 0.06
Revenue per order 10 10
Broking income 16 151
5 Paisa now have ~2% Cash
and ~1.3% F&O volume 5 Paisa ADTV (Rs bn)
market share. -Cash 0.2 1.7
-Derivatives 3.7 26.9
Total 3.9 28.6
Market ADTV (ex prop)
-Cash 199 270
Our estimates suggest that -Derivatives 2,214 3,914
the company handles close to Total 2,413 4,184
~.15mn orders a day now. Market Share (%)
-Cash 0.1 0.6
-Derivatives 0.2 0.7
Total 0.2 0.7
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Balance Sheet
(Rs mn) FY17 FY18 Sep-18
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Share Capital 127 127 127
Reserves 755 502 375
Total Shareholders Funds 882 629 502
Total Debt 0 161 891
Other Financial Liabilities & Provisions 3 2 3
TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 886 793 1,396
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Total Non-current Assets 47 347 355
Total Current Assets 1,045 971 2,122
Creditors 5 21 29
Other Current Liabilities and Provisions 202 504 1,052
Total Current Liabilities 207 686 1,080
Net Current Assets 838 284 1,041
TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS 886 631 1,396
Source: Company Annual Report, HDFC sec Inst Research
Note: Numbers for Sep-18 are of the standalone entity.
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Disclosure:
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Board: +91-22-6171-7330 www.hdfcsec.com
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