India Top Picks

equity strategy equities | 3 November 2016

India Private Wealth Research

Equities | 3 November 2016
Waiting for a trigger, global markets dictate trend
 On a YTD basis, our India Top Picks list has gained 8.8% versus a 6.9% gain by the BSE30 Sensex in the same period.
 This month we have made no changes to the India Top Picks list as we await further clarity on the earnings trajectory from the Q2 earnings
season.
 We are of the opinion that the Indian markets’ focus has shifted to earnings. Domestic events such as the 7th Pay Commission, good
monsoons and lower interest rates seem to have been partly priced in by the markets.
 We believe that any sharp global movement in capital markets would impact Indian equities as well. Global liquidity has been a significant
variable for Indian equities’ performance. As the global environment turned cautious in October 2016, foreign portfolio investors turned net
sellers (INR 43.1bn) in Indian equities after infusing INR 97.0bn on average per month for the preceding seven months.
 However, the overall domestic macro backdrop has improved considerably and we draw our comfort from strengthening consumption and lower
interest rates. We maintain our constructive outlook on Indian equities over the next 12 months.
India sector and industry group views/preferences on a 12-month horizon: OW in green, UW in red, N in orange

Financials Energy Technology Industrials Discretionary Materials Staples Healthcare Telecom Utilities

Private Oil & Gas Metals &

Construction Auto
Banks infrastructure Mining
Equipment & Food,
Public Sector Oil & Gas Auto Parts Beverage & Power
Software Logistics Pharma & Telecom
Banks Exploration Tobacco
Services Biotech Services
Consumer Cement
Housing Oil & Gas Light-
Durables,
Finance Refining & Medium
Apparels, &
Companies Marketing Engineering
Retailing Household &
Non-banking Personal Healthcare Gas
Software Heavy Media & Paints & Telecom
Finance Coal Products Equipment &
Product Engineering Entertainment Chemicals Infrastructure
Companies Services

Important disclosures can be found in the Disclosures Appendix. 1

3 November 2016 | equity strategy – India Top Picks

Contents
Waiting for a trigger, global markets dictate trend 1
India Top Picks: Key sector preferences 3
India Top Picks review 4
Consolidation continues, earnings to be an important catalyst 5
Discretionary 6
Financials 7
Energy 8
Utilities 9
India Top Picks – Performance & Valuations 10
India Top Picks – Investment Rationale 11
India Top Picks – Reserve List Investment Rationale 14
India Top Picks – Results Update 15
Technical Commentary Technical Commentary 18
Definitions 24
Important Information 25

Mitesh Dalal
Chief Investment Strategist
Ashish Mittal
Investment Strategist
Errol Crasto
Sr. Derivative Strategist

This reflects the views of the Standard Chartered Securities 2

3 November 2016 | equity strategy – India Top Picks

India Top Picks: Key sector preferences

Sector View Rationale
Discretionary OW We are Overweight on the sector through automobile, white goods and retail enterprises. Strengthening
consumption continues to augur well for the sector. Improvement in consumer confidence, higher disposable
incomes for central government employees following the implementation of the 7th Pay Commission’s
recommendations and easy credit facilities in the financial system are the sector drivers. Consistent monthly growth
numbers for consumer durables highlight the growing demand for discretionary products. Low interest rates are
likely to provide a fillip to consumption demand going ahead.

Financials OW We remain Overweight on the sector through private banks, given their aggressive investments in branch
expansion and the increasing share of retail in their overall business. Within the segment, we have seen stress
building up on the corporate loan book but believe that these banks are in a good position to absorb the stress.
We maintain our Neutral stance on public sector banks. The systemic high ratio of bad assets, no clear signs of
upgrades or write-backs and tepid growth in advances underpin our concerns about the sector.
We maintain our Neutral stance on non-bank financial companies. Positive trends have emerged among asset-
financing companies; although the NPA burden remains high, loan book growth is impressive. However, expensive
valuations prompt the Neutral rating. We are selectively positive on housing finance companies.
Energy OW We remain Overweight on the sector through oil and gas marketing companies. We believe fuel consumption
growth is likely to sustain, driven by a) growth in the number of vehicles, b) higher disposable income and
propensity to consume and c) growth in manufacturing activity. As India’s economy grows, rising income levels
could boost vehicle ownership. Oil marketing companies, with c.80-85% market share in the domestic fuel market,
continue to benefit from the trend. Moreover, improvement in gross refinery margins could aid performance.
Utilities OW We are Overweight on the sector through power generators and city gas distributors. The success of the UDAY
scheme – financial restructuring of state electricity boards – is critical for power demand growth. Moreover,
improving industrial activity and rising disposable incomes also bode well for power and gas consumption.
Improved transmission links and supply of gas have increased the reach of city gas distributors. A favourable
regulatory environment has also helped in achieving sustainable returns on invested equity for the entire sector.

This reflects the views of the Standard Chartered Securities 3

3 November 2016 | equity strategy – India Top Picks

India Top Picks review

 Our India Top Picks list’s performance continues to improve; its outperformance to the benchmark BSE30 Sensex from inception to date has
improved to 14.4% from the low of 3.2% registered in May 2016. On a YTD basis, its outperformance is now 2.1%.
 Changes to the India Top Picks portfolio over the past few months have aided the list’s performance. Over the past six months, the India Top
Picks list has delivered 15.1% returns compared with the benchmark’s 9.1% returns.
 We have refrained from any changes to the portfolio this month; although a few stocks appear on our radar (please refer to our reserve list on
page 13). We wait for better entry points as we expect India’s equity markets to continue to consolidate for some more time. We are watchful of
technical indicators that may guide us towards further additions or exits in the portfolio.
 Our top-down sector allocations are based on a separate set of selection criteria and may have little bearing on how we select stocks. While we
do monitor sector preferences, we base our stock selection primarily on a ranking system that screens the most attractive individual stocks
across our universe.
 While we are of the opinion that the portfolio should have a domestic bias, we continue to have exposure to globally exposed stocks such as Tata
Motors, HCL Technologies and Tech Mahindra. Tata Motors appears to be a growth stock, despite being exposed to a variety of global
uncertainties such as China’s currency devaluation and likely changes in cross-border trade tariffs in UK (impact of Brexit). The bottom-up
growth valuation matrix underscores our choice of stocks in the top picks’ list. IT stocks in the portfolio are bottom-up value picks from the sector.

Fig 1: India Top Picks performance: recovering from February 2016 lows Fig 2: Sensex P/E: re-rating over the past six months

Source: BSE, Standard Chartered Source: BSE, Standard Chartered

This reflects the views of the Standard Chartered Securities 4

3 November 2016 | equity strategy – India Top Picks

Consolidation continues, earnings to be an important catalyst

 We continue to monitor earnings, which is a potential catalyst for markets. The commodity led, Sensex consolidating in the absence of triggers
liquidity fuelled rally since March 2016 has favoured a few sectors – commodity stocks,
consumption stocks and interest rate sensitives.
 We do not expect near term domestic economic events to trigger markets to unilaterally move
upwards. We expect Indian equities to shift focus increasingly to earnings and fundamentals as
the scope for re-rating of multiples is quite limited. The sentimental impact of positive events
such as the implementation of the 7th Pay Commission’s recommendations, good monsoons,
the Goods and Services Tax related reforms and a decline in interest rates are reflected in the
current trading multiples of the Indian equities markets.
We see the rise in crude oil prices as a potential risk over the medium term –
Indian imports c.80% of its crude oil requirement. If crude oil prices (the Indian basket) breach
Source: BSE, Standard Chartered
USD 60 a barrel, budgetary calculations can come under stress. Even the CAD can get
negatively impacted. Moreover, as fuel prices have been de-regulated in India, it will not be Foreign portfolio investor flows (INR bn) turned
negative in October on global uncertainties
long before fuel inflation starts rising (a medium-term risk on the horizon for Indian equities).
Global events may prove to be a hurdle in the short term –
 We foresee a rise in volatility driven by the US Presidential elections, Italy’s referendum and a
possible US Fed rate hike. Adding to the volatility would be the continued depreciation of the
Chinese currency. Any further sharp devaluation is likely to give rise to volatility in the currency
market, in our view, and may impact Indian equity market sentiments in the near term.
Markets to edge up after consolidation –
 In case there are no significant undershoots in the Q2 FY17 earnings season, and
notwithstanding any troubling global events, we feel that the consolidation may get over and we
may see an uptick in the markets. We expect consumption to remain strong with the next leg to
be supported by improving rural demand, the full impact of the 7th Pay Commission’s
recommendations and a further fall in interest rates on easing CPI inflation. Source: NSDL, Standard Chartered

This reflects the views of the Standard Chartered Securities 5

3 November 2016 | equity strategy – India Top Picks

Discretionary
We are Overweight on the sector through automobile, white goods and retail enterprises. Strengthening Sector view
consumption continues to augur well for the sector. Improvement in consumer confidence, higher disposable
incomes for central government employees following the implementation of the 7th Pay Commission’s
recommendations and easy credit facilities in the financial system are the sector drivers. Consistent monthly
growth numbers for consumer durables highlight the growing demand for discretionary products. Low interest rates
are likely to provide a fillip to consumption demand going ahead. Overweight

Sector drivers Preferred stocks

 The roll out of the 7th Pay Commission is expected to
support consumption demand and may positively
affect discretionary demand for automobiles, white
goods and lifestyle products.
 Low interest rates, a good monsoon season and a
likely pick-up in rural income could help boost
consumer sentiment over the next 12 months.
 Maruti Suzuki – The full impact of the 7th Pay
Commission payout, new product development and
commencement of the Gujarat plant are the key
drivers, going ahead. The company posted an 18.5%
y/y increase in Q2 FY17 domestic volumes, signifying
the underlying demand for its models.
 Tata Motors – Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) sales growth
is likely to remain strong over the next couple of
quarters, as demand for JLR products has improved.
JLR registered growth of 26% y/y – driven by JLR's
recent launches: Land Rover Discovery Sport, Jaguar
XE and Jaguar F-Pace.

Industry groups Top picks stock list – Discretionary

 Automobiles – Passenger vehicle sales continue to Consensus Stock 12m Fwd 12m Fwd Div
Ticker Name Rating Price P/E P/B Yield%
grow, supported by new models and the expanded
MSIL IN Maruti Suzuki Ltd 4.2 5878.1 24.7 5.0 0.6
geographical reach of vehicle manufacturers. Medium
and heavy commercial vehicles have also kept up TTMT IN Tata Motors 4.5 530.6 9.7 1.6 0.0
their pace.
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered

This reflects the views of the Standard Chartered Securities 6

3 November 2016 | equity strategy – India Top Picks

Financials
We remain Overweight on the sector through private banks, given their aggressive investments in branch expansion Sector view
and the increasing share of retail in their overall business. Within the segment, we have seen stress building up on
the corporate loan book but believe that these banks are in a good position to absorb the stress. We maintain our
Neutral stance on public sector banks. The systemic high ratio of bad assets, no clear signs of upgrades or write-
backs and tepid growth in advances underpin our concerns about the sector. We maintain our Neutral stance on
non-bank financial companies. Positive trends have emerged among asset-financing companies; although the NPA Overweight
burden remains high, loan book growth is impressive. However, expensive valuations prompt the Neutral rating. We
are selectively positive on housing finance companies.

Sector drivers Preferred stocks

 The loan book’s growth is primarily due to retail
assets while the corporate loan book’s growth
remains tepid. Although stress continues to build up
in the corporate loan book, private banks, owing to
adequate provisioning, are in a position to better
manage the overall quality of earnings going ahead.
 We expect that with consumption likely to improve
going ahead, private capex would also likely pick up,
alleviating the stress on corporate loans.
 HDFC Bank – Strong liability franchise and aggressive
expansion of branches in the recent past could
improve the bank’s productivity. Growth to be
supported by a healthy capital base (CAR: 15.4%) and
its stable asset quality (Net NPA: 0.3%).
 ICICI Bank – A healthy capital cushion (CAR of
c.16.2%), a healthy CASA deposit ratio (c.45%) and a
cushion build-up in terms of contingency provisions
could provide a strong base for the bank’s growth.

Industry groups Top picks stock list – Financials

 The focus of private banks is clearly balanced in Consensus Stock 12m Fwd 12m Fwd Div
Ticker Name Rating Price P/E P/B Yield%
favour of retail book growth. While the personal
banking segment has been doing well, the corporate HDFCB IN HDFC Bank 4.7 1259.6 19.2 3.5 0.8
segment is yet to experience a material turnaround. ICICIBC IN ICICI Bank 4.2 275.4 13.4 1.8 1.8
 A lower interest rate environment is likely to propel Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered
credit-based consumption on better job prospects
going ahead and an economic recovery.

This reflects the views of the Standard Chartered Securities 7

3 November 2016 | equity strategy – India Top Picks

Energy
We remain Overweight on the sector through oil and gas marketing companies (OMC). We believe fuel consumption Sector view
growth is likely to sustain, driven by a) growth in the number of vehicles, b) higher disposable income and
propensity to consume and c) growth in manufacturing activity. As India’s economy grows, rising income levels
could boost vehicle ownership. Oil marketing companies, with c.80-85% market share in the domestic fuel market,
continue benefit from the trend. Improvement in gross refinery margins to aid performance.
Overweight
Sector drivers Preferred Stock
 Fuel demand is likely to keep growing as economic  Indian Oil Corp. – Indian Oil Corp., the largest refiner
activity picks up. The rise in disposable income and and marketer in India, is likely to benefit from growth in
growing urbanisation could act as catalysts for high fuel consumption. The company plans to invest INR
energy consumption. 400bn over the next six years to increase its refinery
 Private capex, which has been on a slow burner, may capacity to 104.55mmpta (currently 80.7mmpta) to
see some pick-up moving into 2017 as consumption meet rising demand; this could drive IOCL’s long-term
demand remains strong. This may also lead to higher growth.
demand for transportation fuels.

Industry groups Top picks stock list – Energy

 Oil and gas refining and marketing – India's Consensus Stock 12m Fwd 12m Fwd Div
Ticker Name Rating Price P/E P/B Yield%
urbanisation is a key driver of sector trends,
IOCL IN Indian Oil Corp. Ltd. 4.5 325.2 10.0 1.7 2.2
accelerating the switch to modern fuels and the rise in
appliance and vehicle ownership. Additionally, the Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered
government's commitment towards pricing reforms
and a decline in global crude oil prices have made the
business environment attractive for OMCs.

This reflects the views of the Standard Chartered Securities 8

3 November 2016 | equity strategy – India Top Picks

Utilities
We are Overweight on the sector through power generators and city gas distributors. The success of the UDAY Sector view
scheme – financial restructuring of state electricity boards – is critical for power demand growth. Moreover,
improving industrial activity and rising disposable incomes also bode well for power and gas consumption.
Improved transmission links and supply of gas have increased the reach of city gas distributors. A favourable
regulatory environment has also helped in achieving sustainable returns on invested equity for the entire sector.
Overweight
Sector drivers Preferred Stock
 Improvement in domestic coal availability has directly  NTPC – The company is likely to see growth in
affected the plant availability factor for power earnings, driven by capacity addition, higher plant load
generators. An imminent improvement in power factors and assured fuel supply. Anecdotally, a fall in
demand is likely, with the implementation of the bond yields has historically aided earnings, owing to
UDAY scheme across states. the leveraged capital structure of power projects,
 The lower re-set of gas prices and improved gas which require large investments.
availability bode well for the sector. The government’s
recent efforts to curb pollution in major cities would
lead to increased gas-based vehicular activity.

Industry groups Top picks stock list – Utilities

 Power – The government’s focused approach, Consensus Stock 12m Fwd 12m Fwd Div
Ticker Name Rating Price P/E P/B Yield%
through its various schemes to improve availability of
NTPC IN NTPC Ltd 4.4 155.0 12.3 1.3 2.1
power, is a key factor driving growth in power
demand. A pick-up in economic activity would be an
additional boost for the sector’s prospects. Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered

 Gas – Lower gas prices continue to improve demand

for gas, and positively affect gas transmitters and
distributors.

This reflects the views of the Standard Chartered Securities 9

3 November 2016 | equity strategy – India Top Picks

India Top Picks – Performance & Valuations

12m 12m
Stock Consensus Fwd Fwd Div Div TR TR YTD% TR
Ticker Name Sector Price Rating P/E P/B Yield% Payout% 1M% YTD% USD ITD%
MSIL IN Maruti Suzuki Discretionary 5878.1 4.2 24.7 5.0 0.6 22.5 7.3% 28.1% 27.1% 40.6%

TTMT IN Tata Motors Discretionary 530.6 4.5 9.7 1.6 0.0 0.6 -0.8% 35.7% 34.6% 43.5%

ITC IN ITC Staples 240.0 4.3 24.6 7.1 2.4 69.0 -0.6% 12.4% 11.6% 68.6%

RIL IN Reliance Industries Energy 1051.0 4.4 11.0 1.1 1.0 11.2 -3.0% 4.7% 3.9% 49.3%

IOCL IN Indian Oil Corporation Energy 325.2 4.5 10.0 1.7 2.2 30.3 11.6% 56.3% 55.2% 42.2%

HDFCB IN HDFC Bank Financials 1259.8 4.7 19.2 23.5 0.8 18.8 -1.0% 17.4% 16.5% 5.1%

ICICIBC IN ICICI Bank Financials 275.4 4.2 13.4 1.8 1.8 28.6 9.2% 7.6% 6.8% 61.6%

CIPLA IN Cipla Healthcare 571.8 3.6 23.6 3.1 0.4 10.7 -1.4% -11.7% -12.4% 79.4%

LT IN Larsen & Toubro Industrials 1463.2 4.1 22.2 2.6 1.3 33.4 2.1% 16.1% 15.3% -2.2%

HCLT IN HCL Technologies Technology 772.9 4.2 12.6 3.1 3.1 - -2.6% -6.8% -7.5% 23.4%

TECHM IN Tech Mahindra Technology 433.6 4.2 11.4 2.2 2.8 37.2 3.3% -14.8% -15.5% 87.8%

NTPC IN NTPC Utilities 155.0 4.4 12.3 1.3 2.1 27.1 4.7% 8.5% 7.7% 12.6%
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered
As of 1 November 2016

This reflects the views of the Standard Chartered Securities 10

3 November 2016 | equity strategy – India Top Picks

India Top Picks – Investment Rationale

Company Ticker Sector Rationale
Maruti Suzuki Ltd MSIL IN Discretionary Maruti Suzuki has taken the pole position in the SUV segment because of the success of the Ciaz, Vitara, Brezza
and Baleno – a premium hatchback. The company is all set to capture a bigger share of the premium segment.
Maruti plans on increase its NEXA showroom network by 100 stores to 250 by end-FY17 and expects NEXA to
contribute 15% of sales by 2020. Its Gujarat plant is on schedule to start operations by January 2017 and could
significantly ease capacity constraints. The company aims to mitigate the currency risk by increasing exports to
Japan, paying royalties in Indian rupees (instead of Japanese Yen) and reducing the import content, bringing
down its net Yen exposure to less than 10% of sales (from 20-25%). Adverse currency movements and a rise in
raw material prices are the key near-term risks for the company’s operating margins.
Tata Motors Ltd TTMT IN Discretionary In the first eight months of 2016, Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) registered a 24% y/y rise in sales, with high growth in
volumes coming from the US and European markets. Moreover, JLR plans to invest c.GBP 3.8bn in product
development (19% higher than FY16). Tata Motors also secured orders worth INR 9bn (for over 5,000 buses) from
various state and city transport undertakings in the first five months of FY17, indicating an 80% jump in the
company’s order book compared with the last year. Management expects M&HCV volumes to increase further into
FY17 after good monsoons and a rise in pre-buying on the country-wide adoption of BS IV norms by April 2017.
ITC Ltd ITC IN Staples ITC’s cigarette volume growth has improved over the last quarter and is likely to be better than preceding years;
the other FMCG segment’s growth too has been resilient in an otherwise weak market conditions. ITC’s strategy
to reduce the length of cigarettes from 69mm to 64mm in some products, while keeping prices unchanged, has
favoured the overall segment’s performance. Adverse raw material price movements and a higher-than-expected
goods and services tax rate and cess can compress business margins and are a key risk for the stock.
Reliance RIL IN Energy RIL’s refining business sustained high profitability in a tough environment, highlighting the company’s exceptional
Industries Ltd refining assets, dynamic response to market trends and robust operations. The petrochemicals segment gained
significantly from higher volumes, integration and supportive product margins. Any delay in the commissioning of
new projects in the hydrocarbon chain is a potential concern. Reliance Jio is set to start commissioning over the
next few months in phases. Any further capital infusion in Reliance Jio is an added concern.
Indian Oil IOCL IN Energy IOCL, the largest refiner and marketer in the country, is likely to benefit from growth in fuel consumption. IOCL’s
Corporation Ltd plan to ramp-up Paradip refinery operations to 95% by end-2016 (from c.55%) could support its gross refining
margins. The company plans to invest INR 400bn over the next six years to increase its refinery capacity to
104.55mmpta (currently 80.7mmpta) to meet rising demand; this could drive IOCL’s long-term growth. Capacity
expansion delays and r rise in crude oil prices are the key risks.
Source: Standard Chartered

This reflects the views of the Standard Chartered Securities 11

3 November 2016 | equity strategy – India Top Picks

India Top Picks – Investment Rationale (cont’d)

Company Ticker Sector Rationale
HDFC Bank Ltd HDFCB IN Financials HDFC Bank, the second-largest private sector bank in the country, is the best positioned to capitalise on growth
opportunities as it leverages its expanding distribution and capital adequacy ratio of 15.4%. The bank continues to
increase its market share across the retail (especially unsecured high yield) and wholesale segments, while
maintaining spreads with stable asset quality. Aggressive branch expansions in the recent past have put the bank
in a sweet spot to grow at a brisk pace. Policy rate cuts and any deterioration in asset quality are the key risks for
the company.
ICICI Bank Ltd ICICIBC IN Financials We are comfortable with ICICI Bank’s healthy capital cushion (CAR of c.16.2%), which underlines the possibility of
no requirement to raise equity capital for the next two to three years, healthy CASA deposit ratio (c.45%), focus on
the secured retail segment and higher-rated corporates, cushion build-up in terms of contingency provisions and
efforts to improve cost efficiency. The bank raised INR 60.5bn from divestments in its insurance arm (IPRU).
However, any further deterioration of asset quality and a macro slowdown are the potential risks.
Larsen & Toubro LT IN Industrials Margin expansion, any pick-up in the execution of large specific projects and the size of the order book remain the
key catalysts. LT’s order inflow in Q1 FY17 was up 14.2% y/y, driven primarily by its hydrocarbon, water and
heavy civil verticals. Its total order book stood at a healthy INR 2,574bn (+8.4% y/y), of which 29.4% is from
international markets. Lower inflation and interest rates would help the company by improving the viability of
projects. Disinvestments of its subsidiaries in primary markets will lead to strong cash flows, which can lead to a
rise in dividends. Any slowdown in execution would be a key risk.
Cipla Ltd CIPLA IN Healthcare Cipla has stepped up launch plans in areas such as respiratory, dermatology, cardiovascular and urology, which
will help speed-up its growth in India. The company has launched four products in the US in Q1 FY17 and has a
pipeline of over 40 Abbreviated New Drug Applications (ANDA). It plans to invest USD 91m in a plant in South
Africa to manufacture biosimilars. Clearance of its Indore plant from the US FDA is a positive development.
Delays in important product launches and adverse FX movements are the key risks to watch.

Source: Standard Chartered

This reflects the views of the Standard Chartered Securities 12

3 November 2016 | equity strategy – India Top Picks

India Top Picks – Investment Rationale (cont’d)

Company Ticker Sector Rationale
HCL Tech HCLT IN Information HCLT entered into a 15-year partnership with a global tech major to invest USD 340m (USD 130m invested in Q1
Technology FY17) in workload automation and DevOps software; this is expected to generate revenue of USD 30m-USD 40m
in FY17, with a higher mix of Infra services and lower BFSI exposure. Management reiterated its guidance for
annual revenue growth (12.0-14.0% in FY17) and EBIT margin (to be within 19.5-20.5%), despite peers giving
cautious outlook; this is a positive sign. Key risks arise from cannibalisation of IMS revenue owing to cloud
adoption and a potential loss of clients in the financial services sector due to vendor consolidation.
Tech Mahindra TECHM IN Information The company’s business outlook has improved, with its enterprise business on a steady growth path. We expect
Technology the gradual recovery in its telecom business segment to continue going forward. The recent acquisitions of Italian
car designer Phininfarina and the UK-based digital transformation firm BIO Agency in July 2016 have begun to
contribute to quarterly revenue from Q2 FY17. TECHM expects to complete the restructuring of Lightbridge
Communications Corporation (LCC) by end-December; this should improve profitability at LCC. Key risks include
IT budget cuts following Brexit and adverse forex movements.
NTPC Ltd NTPC IN Utilities NTPC maintained its FY17 capacity addition target of 5,648MW (including 768MW of solar) and plans to
commercialise 3,667MW (including 518MW of solar) in H2 FY17. As NTPC has 11 plants in the incentive zone, its
incentive income could increase when generation picks up. NTPC’s capacity is currently at 47GW. NTPC’s ROE
could see some upside as its capacity addition would drive up its regulated equity. Success of the UDAY scheme
would likely result in higher demand for power from state electricity boards. Moreover, the government’s drive for
rural electrification is an additional trigger for power demand. Increased coal prices and slow execution of planned
capex are the key risks.
Source: Standard Chartered

This reflects the views of the Standard Chartered Securities 13

3 November 2016 | equity strategy – India Top Picks

India Top Picks – Reserve List Investment Rationale

The list below comprises stocks that we like fundamentally. While we like the businesses, we await pullback in current valuations before adding to the portfolio.

Company Ticker Sector Rationale

IndusInd Bank IIB IN Financials IIB reported robust 33.5% y/y (+7.7% q/q) growth in net interest income in Q2 FY17, driven by a 26.4% y/y
increase in its loan book; corporate loans and consumer finance grew 26.0% y/y (51.5% of loans) and 26.9% y/y,
respectively. Net interest margin inched up 3bps q/q to 4.00% owing to an uptick in the CASA ratio (+2.1ppt q/q to
36.5%). Non-interest income (39.9% of revenue) grew 23.9% y/y, driven by higher investment banking,
distribution and loan processing fees. IIB’s gross and net non-performing assets stood at 0.90% and 0.37%,
respectively, with the provisioning coverage ratio unchanged at 59%.
Hero MotoCorp HMCL IN Discretionary HMCL posted healthy top-line growth of 15.0% y/y in Q2 FY17 on 15.8% y/y volume growth to 1.82m units,
Ltd particularly in the 125cc segment, driven by strong Hero Glamour sales (+c.30% y/y). Its scooter sales surged
c.47.0% on higher uptake for the models launched in Q3 FY16 (Maestro and Duet) and an increased market
share to c.16% (from c.12% in Q2 FY16). However, its sequential market share fell on intense competition. HMCL
continues to dominate both the 125cc and the 100cc segments, with over 55.0% and 65.0% shares, respectively.
EBITDA grew 24.9% y/y and EBITDA margin expanded 1.3ppt y/y to 16.2% on lower input prices and savings
from HMCL’s cost-control programme (LEAP; INR 1.03bn savings in H1 FY17). PAT grew 27.7% y/y in Q2 FY17.
LIC Housing LICHF IN Financials LICHF’s net interest income grew 20.7% y/y (+5.0% q/q) in Q2 FY17, driven by an increase in net interest margin
Finance Ltd (NIM: +12bps y/y to 2.68%). Its weighted average cost of funds declined 35bps y/y as the share of low-cost non-
convertible debentures rose to 80.6% of its funding mix, offsetting a 20bps y/y decline in the yield on advances. Its
individual loan book (97.2% of the loan book) grew 14.7% y/y owing to 10.2% y/y growth in disbursements, while
its project loan portfolio grew 22.4% y/y. The total loan book grew 14.9% y/y. Asset quality remained strong, with
the gross and net non-performing asset (NPA) ratios at 0.57% and 0.28%, respectively. The provisioning
coverage ratio remained healthy at 124%. Gross NPA for individual loans fell 3bps q/q to 0.32%.
Source: Standard Chartered

This reflects the views of the Standard Chartered Securities 14

3 November 2016 | equity strategy – India Top Picks

India Top Picks – Results Update

Company Report date Period Results Rationale
Maruti Suzuki Ltd 27/10/2016 Q2 Beat MSIL reported 29.5% y/y net sales growth in Q2 FY17, driven by strong domestic volumes (+18.5%
y/y). Realisation was up 9.3% y/y due to higher sales of better-priced new models. EBITDA margin was
up 81bps y/y to 17.0% on lower discounts and lower fuel and advertising costs, which offset an
increase in material costs due to adverse FX movements and higher commodity prices. Net profit grew
60.2% y/y on higher other income.

Tata Motors Ltd 26/08/2016 Q1 Miss Tata Motor’s EBITDA declined 30.8% y/y in Q1 FY17, largely affected by an INR 23.0bn impact from
adverse FX movements (post-Brexit), an INR 1.7bn loss from adverse commodity derivatives and
lower local market incentives. The company’s consolidated revenue was up 9.0% y/y, led by 13.2% y/y
growth in the standalone business (19.9% of revenue). Its commercial vehicle segment reported strong
growth, led by LCV (+11.6% y/y) and M&HCV (+7.8% y/y), while its car segment revenue was up by a
healthy 15.1% y/y, led by the newly launched Tiago (April 2016).
ITC Ltd 21/07/2016 Q1 Miss ITC’s Q2 FY17 revenue grew 8.0% y/y, mainly driven by its core FMCG business (+8.5% y/y; includes
cigarettes and other FMCG). Its cigarette sales (58.0% of segmental revenue) rose 7.1% y/y, despite a
10.0% excise duty hike and the 85% graphic health warning requirement (GHW) imposed in mid-2016.
Revenue from other FMCG grew 13.3% y/y. EBIT margins across most segments improved, with
cigarette margins growing 44bps y/y. ITC’s PAT grew 10.5% y/y to INR 25bn.
Reliance Industries Ltd 20/10/2016 Q2 Beat RIL’s robust EBIT growth of 30.1% y/y in Q2 FY17 was driven by 9.6% y/y top-line growth and higher
EBIT margin (+162bps y/y to 10.3%) due to higher volumes in refining, petrochemicals and retail. EBIT
margin in the refining and petrochemicals segments rose 91bps y/y (to 9.9%) and 337bps y/y (to
15.2%), respectively. RIL’s gross refining margin (GRM) of USD 10.1/bbl was higher than the
benchmark Singapore complex margin by USD 5.0/bbl on firm middle distillate cracks and strong fuel
oil cracks. Petrochemicals volumes rose c.10% on healthy demand for polyester and polymer products.
Indian Oil Corporation 27/10/2016 Q2 Miss IOCL’s EBITDA surged y/y (+766.4%) to c.INR 58bn in Q2 FY17, with the Petrochem segment
Ltd contributing c.37% in EBITDA (c.15% in Q1 FY17) on inventory gains, higher gross refining margins
(GRM) and lower other expenses. However, EBITDA declined 57.8% q/q as GRM fell sequentially.
EBITDA margins narrowed 7.0ppt q/q (+5.1ppt y/y) to 5.8% in the quarter. IOCL’s average GRM fell to
USD 7.15/bbl from USD 9.98/bbl in Q1 FY17, on higher crude oil prices and lower inventory gains
(-57.7% q/q) in Q2 FY17. Revenue rose 3.1% y/y on higher sales volume (+3.4% y/y).
Source: Standard Chartered

This reflects the views of the Standard Chartered Securities 15

3 November 2016 | equity strategy – India Top Picks

India Top Picks – Results Update (cont’d)

Company Report date Period Results Synopsis
HDFC Bank Ltd 25/10/2016 Q2 In line HDFCB reported 19.6% y/y (4.4% q/q) growth in net interest income (NII) in Q2 FY17. Net interest
margin declined 20bps to 4.2%, partly due to the parking of excess liquidity in short-term instruments.
Non-interest income grew 13.7% y/y amid 12.6% y/y growth in fees and commission income. PAT rose
20.4% y/y, driven by both NII and non-interest income growth. The bank’s asset quality remained
largely unchanged with gross and net non-performing asset (NPA) ratios at 1.02% and 0.30% (versus
1.04% and 0.32% in Q1 FY17) with 70.6% provision coverage.
ICICI Bank Ltd 29/07/2016 Q1 Miss Net interest income growth was muted at 0.9% y/y (-4.6% q/q), despite a 12.4% y/y (+3.3% q/q)
increase in the loan book: the retail business (46.4% of the loan book) grew 22.1% y/y. Net interest
margin contracted 38bps y/y to 3.16% (-21bps q/q). PAT declined 25.0% y/y, largely due to an
increase in provisions (+163.2% y/y). ICICI’s asset quality further weakened, with gross and net non-
performing assets at 5.28% and 3.01% (versus 5.21% and 2.67% in Q4 FY16), respectively.

Larsen & Toubro 29/07/2016 Q1 Miss Revenue growth was muted at 9.1% y/y on sluggish domestic growth (+5.0% y/y; 65% of revenue).
International revenue grew 18.2% y/y amid maturing execution of large projects, including the Riyadh
and Doha Metro projects. EBITDA grew 16.1% y/y on soft commodity prices. PAT growth came in at
45.6% due to the restatement of the base year PAT to INR 4.2bn (from INR 6.0bn), with the transition
to the new accounting standards (IND-AS).
Cipla Ltd 12/08/2016 Q1 Miss Cipla’s revenue declined 6.4% y/y (+10.4% q/q), dragged down by North America (-21.2% y/y; 18.3%
of revenue) because of the lapse of Nexium’s market exclusivity. Domestic sales were up 4.9% y/y
(40.3% of revenue), despite the ban on certain fixed-dose combination (FDC) drugs and price controls
via the National List of Essential Medicines (NLEM). Although its EBITDA margin declined 10.5ppt y/y
to 17.0%, it recovered 11.7ppt q/q (after contracting for two quarters; 5.3% in Q4 FY16 and 14.6% in
Q3 FY16), aided by a favourable product mix and cost-control measures in the base business.
HCL Tech 21/10/2016 Q2 In line HCL reported top-line growth of 2.8% q/q in constant currency terms (cc), mainly driven by
Infrastructure Management Services (IMS; +4.4% q/q in cc; 40.3% of revenue) and Engineering and
R&D Services (+2.3% q/q in cc; 17.8% of revenue). The Financial Services vertical (24.1% of revenue)
recovered, with robust 5.6% q/q growth led by deal wins in the fintech segment. EBIT margin fell 50bps
q/q to 20.1%, weighed by partial wage hikes and higher outsourcing costs.
Source: Standard Chartered

This reflects the views of the Standard Chartered Securities 16

3 November 2016 | equity strategy – India Top Picks

India Top Picks – Results Update (cont’d)

Company Report date Period Results Synopsis
Tech Mahindra 27/10/2016 Q2 Beat TECHM’s top-line growth of 4.0% q/q in Q2 FY17 (in USD) was led by strong growth in the
manufacturing (+10.3% q/q; 19.2% of revenue) and banking and financial services and insurance
(+5.8% q/q; 11.5% of revenue) verticals; its core communications vertical grew 2.3% q/q (48.4% of
revenue). In constant currency terms, revenue was up 5.0% y/y. EBIT margin contracted 42bps q/q to
11.5% on a one-time restructuring charge associated with improving the on-/off-site resource mix
(USD13m; c.120bps impact) and an adverse currency impact (40bps).
NTPC Ltd 28/10/2016 Q2 Beat NTPC’s revenue grew 8.1% y/y in Q2 FY17, mainly driven by an increase in the average tariff to c.INR
3.18 per unit (+7.6% y/y). Total generation increased only 0.7% y/y to 60.6bn units on the back of lower
demand amid a healthy monsoon season. NTPC’s coal plant load factor fell 2.6ppt y/y to 74.7% in Q2
FY17. EBITDA growth slowed to 4.3% y/y, weighed by lower incentive income and a rise in average
fuel costs per unit (INR 1.97 versus INR 1.92 in Q2 FY16).
Source: Standard Chartered

This reflects the views of the Standard Chartered Securities 17

3 November 2016 | equity strategy – India Top Picks

Technical Commentary Technical Commentary

Below, we present the technical views for our India Top Picks’ stocks. The stocks are given a rating of 1-5, with 1 being the most favourable
technicals and 5 being the least favourable technicals on a 1-3 month basis. This is from a pure technical standpoint and may run contrary to the
fundamental views we hold on the stocks within the portfolio, which are on a 12-month basis.
India Top Picks Technical rating
Name Ticker Sector Rating Name Ticker Sector Rating
Maruti Suzuki Ltd MSIL IN Discretionary 2 HCL Technologies Ltd HCLT IN IT 3
Tata Motors Ltd TTMT IN Discretionary 3 Tech Mahindra Ltd TECHM IN IT 2
ITC Ltd ITC IN Staples 4 NTPC Ltd NTPC IN Utilities 3
Reliance Industries RIL IN Energy 3
Indian Oil Corporation IOCL IN Energy 3
HDFC Bank Ltd HDFCB IN Financials 2
ICICI Bank ICICIBC IN Financials 2
Larsen & Toubro Ltd NTPC IN Industrials 3
Cipla Ltd CIPLA IN Healthcare 3
Source: Standard Chartered
Views as of 1 November 2016

In the following pages, we present the Technical charts for stocks that are the most favourable.

This reflects the views of the Standard Chartered Securities 18

3 November 2016 | equity strategy – India Top Picks

Technical Commentary (cont’d)

 Sensex –
 The Sensex is trading within the
downward channel bars connecting
intermediate highs and lows since
September’s peak and is consolidating
its earlier bigger up-move. The 20-day
moving average (DMA) has drifted
lower and is on the verge of piercing
below the 100DMA, which had
triggered a sell signal back in August
2015.
 Given the multiple re-test of the
27,750-27,500 range, it has gained
significance forming a crucial support.
A break of this psychological range
could trigger a knee-jerk reaction and
the Sensex could fall to 27,000. Until
we see a stronger rebound above
28,250, the trend is unlikely to
improve. Therefore, investors should
wait for further correction or a decisive
trend reversal to re-enter.

Source: Cogencis, Standard Chartered Daily chart

This reflects the views of the Standard Chartered Securities 19

3 November 2016 | equity strategy – India Top Picks

Technical Commentary (cont’d)

 Maruti Suzuki India Ltd (MSIL IN) –
 The stock is in the midst of a robust
uptrend, making a fresh life-time high,
as demonstrated by the super trend
indicator that still gives a buy signal.
The stock has cleared some important
resistances on the way up, almost
effortlessly displaying the overall
bullish sentiment for the stock.
Supports to watch, in case the broader
market corrects, are at INR 5,412, INR
4,992 and INR 4,560, while the
Fibonacci upside projected target
works out to be INR 6,780, which
seems reasonable given the stock’s
strong momentum.
 The weekly RSI indicator is hovering
close to the overbought line; however,
price action remains positive.

Weekly Chart
Source: Cogencis, Standard Chartered

This reflects the views of the Standard Chartered Securities 20

3 November 2016 | equity strategy – India Top Picks

Technical Commentary (cont’d)

 HDFC Bank Ltd (HDFCB IN) –
 The stock is in the midst of a secular
uptrend, forming a series of higher
highs and lower lows. The
intermediate uptrend remains intact
since the breakout of the multi-month
consolidation band above INR 1,120.
We expect the current pullback to be a
healthy correction while the broader
trend still remains up.
 The weekly RSI indicator remains
above 50, even after correcting from
the overbought line, which is positive.
Investors can use the current
correction to accumulate the stock for
a longer-term horizon.

Weekly Chart
Source: Cogencis, Standard Chartered

This reflects the views of the Standard Chartered Securities 21

3 November 2016 | equity strategy – India Top Picks

Technical Commentary (cont’d)

 ICICI Bank (ICICI Bank IN) –
The stock has underperformed the
broader banking index for some time.
The overall trend is positive, given the
rising expanding channel pattern
unfolding on the weekly chart. We
believe there is room for
outperformance in the short term,
given the pickup in volumes on
positive days.
 The momentum indicator is showing
positive divergence, but the stock
needs to clear INR 286 to see a pick-
up in momentum. However, any
correction to INR 260 can be used to
accumulate, given the longer-term
positive bias.

Weekly Chart

This reflects the views of the Standard Chartered Securities 22

3 November 2016 | equity strategy – India Top Picks

Source: Cogencis, Standard Chartered

Technical Commentary (cont’d)

 Tech Mahindra (Tech M IN) –
 The stock has corrected to its 2015
lows after repeatedly failing to
overcome the resistance around INR
550. The overall chart structure has
deteriorated since it failed to sustain
above INR 480, which was essential
to keeping the medium-term uptrend
intact.
 The weekly RSI indicator is oversold
and is appearing to stabilise around
current levels. Given the crucial
supports between INR 420 and INR
386, current levels offer a very good
risk/reward ratio for a recovery above
INR 480.

Weekly Chart
Source: Cogencis, Standard Chartered

This reflects the views of the Standard Chartered Securities 23

3 November 2016 | equity strategy – India Top Picks

Definitions
YTD: Year to date. EV/EBITDA: Enterprise value/Earnings Total return: Capital appreciation + dividend
ITD: Inception to date. Before Interest, Tax and Depreciation income received.
Amortisation. Short term: Time horizon of 1-4 weeks.
PT: Price Targets (SCB uses an investment
Earnings revision ratio: Net earnings Medium term: Time horizon of 3-6 months.
horizon of 12 months for its price targets).
revision (upgrades - downgrades) / Total
RSI: Relative Strength Index. earnings revision (upgrades + downgrades)
Relative Volatility index: A measure of the ROE and ROA: Return on Equity (book
standard deviation of the daily price change. value) and Return on Assets. Investment Strategy Team:
MA: Moving Average. Dividend Yield: Dividend paid/ current price. Mitesh Dalal*
Basket average performance: Basket Distribution per Unit (DPU): DPU is the Director and Chief Investment Strategist
average is the un-weighted performance of distribution/dividend per share for
the shortlisted stocks Ashish Pai*
shareholders. Normally announced and
distributed quarterly or semi-annually. Term is Associate Director & Technical Strategist
Consensus rating: A rating provided by
Bloomberg which reflects the aggregation of commonly used in REITs. Ashish Mittal*
all brokers rating for a particular stock. 1 is a Net Interest Margin (NIM): Is a measure of Sr. Investment Strategist
Sell, while 5 is a Strong Buy. difference between the net interest income
Errol Crasto*
P/E: Price/Earnings ratio. The Trailing P/E generated from lending by financial
Sr. Derivative Strategist
refers to 12m of trailing earnings, while the institutions and the amount of interest paid out
forward refers to 12m forecast earnings, to their lenders (for example deposits) Priyank Chheda*
against current price. Beta: Correlation between a stock and the Investment Strategist
P/B: Price/Book ratio. The book value refers market. Is based on two years of weekly data, Priya Iyer*
to total shareholder’s equity, while the forward but modified by the assumption that a Associate Strategist
refers to 12m forecast book value, against security's beta moves toward the market
average over time. *Research Analyst
current price.

This reflects the views of the Standard Chartered Securities 24

3 November 2016 | equity strategy – India Top Picks

Important Information
Disclosures
1.) SCSI and/or its affiliates have received compensation for the provision of investment banking, financial advisory services or other services within the past one year for the following companies:
Larsen & Toubro Ltd, HDFC Bank, Reliance Industries, NTPC Ltd
2.) SCSI and/or its affiliates was a lead manager, or has managed or co-managed a public offering for the following companies within the past 12 months, for which it received fees: NTPC Ltd
3.) SCSI and/or its affiliates expect to receive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services from the following companies in the next three months: NTPC Ltd

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Banking activities may be carried out internationally by different Standard Chartered Bank branches, subsidiaries and affiliates (collectively “SCB”) according to local
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Please refer to https://www.sc.com/en/banking-services/market-disclaimer.html for more detailed disclosures.

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3 November 2016 | equity strategy – India Top Picks

Investment Strategy Disclaimer

This document and/or trading calls are issued by Investment Strategy Team of Standard Chartered Securities (India) Limited, a registered broker regulated by the
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been taken on SCSI by any regulatory authority. For details on group companies operating in India, please visit https://www.sc.com/in/india_result.html
This document does not necessarily represent the views of every function within the Standard Chartered Bank, particularly those of the Global Research function. The
data, opinions and other information that form the basis of this document and/or the trading calls may be provided by third parties for SCSI. While all reasonable care has
been taken in preparing this document and/or the trading calls, any opinions or views of third parties expressed in this material are those of the third parties identified,
and not of SCSI.
Trading recommendations based on quantitative analysis are based on index / stock’s momentum, price movement, trading volume and other volatility parameters, as
opposed to study of macro-economic scenario and a company’s fundamentals. The trading calls and/or contents of this document are not made with regard to the
specific investment objectives, financial situation or the particular needs of any particular person. Any investments discussed may not be suitable for all investors. Past
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