The influence of alcohol content variation in UK packaged beers on the

uncertainty of calculations using the Widmark equation Abstract

The Widmark equation is the most commonly used calculation by a forensic scientist (1) as driving under
the influence (DUI) cases put a lot of parties in danger such as the driver who’s under the influence of
alcohol, people in the passenger seats, pedestrians, other drivers on the road and so on. Therefore, the
Widmark equation is an important tool in cases involving alcohol as it determines the blood alcohol
concentration (BAC) at a specific time. (2)
The Widmark Equation Consists of “Ct = blood alcohol (ethanol) concentration at time, v = volume of
alcoholic beverage consumed (ml), z = strength of alcohol beverage (%v/v), d = density of ethanol (g/ml),
r = the volume of distribution (Vd) of ethanol in an individual (unitless), M = mass of the subject (kg),
β=alcohol elimination rate (mg/100 ml/h), t = time the drinking began (h).” (3) As every measurement and
estimate has a level of uncertainty that arise from calculations (4) it is impossible to have certain results
therefore the uncertainty in the calculations must be reported (5).
As reports suggest beer is the most commonly consumed drink by men when “binge drinking” (6) the aim
of the study was to determine the standard deviation (SD) and percentage coefficient of variation (%CV)
of the alcohol by volume percentage (%ABV) on packaged (bottled and can) beer that was brewed in the
UK in order to provide experimentally derived %ABV data to be used in certainty calculations while using
the Widmark Equation. (3)
218 different UK brewed beers were sampled (107 ≤ 5.5% alcohol by volume (%ABV; %v/v) and> 5.5
%ABV)(3) the reason of the groupings is that a variation of ± 0.5%v/v (for beers ≤5.5%v/v) and ± 1.0%v/v
(for beers > 5.5%v/v)from the labelled content is allowed by the European Union legislation which is
enacted by UK legislation. (7)
Two 20ml aliquot were used with an Anton Parr DMA 4500M density meter which was fitted with an
Alcolyzer Beer ME module in order to measure the %ABV of the beers. Duplicates for each sample was
measured for further calculation. The analytical method that was used in the experiment was approved
by MEBAK (Central European Commission for Brewing Analysis). (3)
The root mean square error (RMSE) shows the standard deviation of the differences between the labelled
(observed) %ABV and the experimentally determined (predicted) %ABV values. The RMSE equation
consists of “n = number of predictions; P = experimentally determined %ABV (%v/v); O = labelled %ABV
(%v/v)”(3)
The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was calculated for both groups which were < 5.5%v/v and ≥5.5%v/v
and was used instead of standard deviation as it was a representation of a comparison between the
labelled (predicted) alcohol content and the experimentally determined (observed) alcohol content. The
results were that “The RMSE for beers of < 5.5%v/v was ± 0.43% v/v and for beers ≥5.5%v/v was ±
0.53%v/v. The RMSE for all beers was ± 0.48%v/v” (3)
When compared to the levels that are allowed by the legislation for beers ≤5.5%v/v the uncertainty is
higher than the allowed amount whereas it is not for beers > 5.5%v/v. The results show that when
appropriate experimental data is used in order to determine of uncertainty, more reliable results can be
obtained.
References
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applied in forensic toxicology. Forensic Science International. 2007 2007/10/02/;172(1):33-9.
2. Reid S, Maskell PD, Maskell DL. Uncertainty in Widmark calculations: ABV variation in packaged
versions of the most popular beers in the UK. Science & Justice. 2019 2019/03/01/;59(2):210-3.
3. Peter D. Maskell CH, Margaux Huismann, Struan Reid, Martin Carr, Benjamin J. Jones, Dawn L.
Maskell. The influence of alcohol content variation in UK packaged beers on the
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volume, strength and density. Science & Justice. 2017;57(5).
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measurement of blood alcohol concentration: re-evaluation of Widmark's equation. Forensic Science
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