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To: haozx@igsnrr.ac.cn
Subject: Re: =?gb2312?B?Rnc6IFRpbXMgQW5zd2Vy?=
Date: Wed Jul 1 16:17:28 2009
Cc: Luterbacher J�rg <juerg.luterbacher@giub.unibe.ch>
Dear Zhixin,
At 15:14 01/07/2009, you wrote:
Do you mean Se should be the standard error from the invidual reconstruction
series
(before I got your answer, I calculated the standard error for the 5
reconstruction
data at one time point, e.g. 1470s, it is not from the original papers given
by the
authors)?
But my question is if the author did not publish the uncertainty, how can I
deal with
the value of Se?
Well, the original purpose of constructing IPCC Fig. 6.10c was to display the
published
uncertainty estimates of each study. If no uncertainties had been estimated by
the
original authors then we wouldn't have produced the figure in the first place!
So, do you really want to produce such a figure to show the uncertainty ranges
when the
uncertainty ranges haven't been calculated before?
If you do, then you'd need to somehow estimate the uncertainty. You could do
this
yourself, perhaps, e.g. from the differences between each reconstruction and the
instrumental temperatures during some overlap (calibration, or independent
verification)
period? But this wouldn't measure any increase in uncertainty during periods
when each
reconstruction is perhaps based on less input proxy data.
Estimating the uncertainty from the spread of individual reconstruction values
in a
particular year, like you've done, is open to criticism. Do you really think
that in a
particular year when the three recons have very similar values that the
uncertainty is much
less than other nearby years? If you had a high number of
And now I understood the meaning of 5%-95% range, I will follow this, and
replot my
figures with +-1.645SE for the half scores.
Thank you very much again, hopefully I can give the uncertainty of
reconstruction
results over China region soon. After finished, may I send the manuscript to
you and
give us comments and suggestions?
Best wishes,
Zhixin
----- Original Message -----
From: "Juerg Luterbacher"
To:
Subject: Tims Answer
Sent: Wed, 1 Jul 2009 12:27:44 +0200