DISTRIBUTION STANDARD REFERENCE REV SCSASABO9 0 DATE: DATE 2000 PAGE OF 16 1 REVISION DATE: DATE 2003

AUTHORIZED BY

TITLE: DISTRIBUTION STANDARD PART 1: PLANNING GUIDELINES SECTION 23: BOOK ELECTRIFICATION LOAD FORECASTING
COMPILED BY

TESCOD APPROVED FUNCTIONAL RESP. APPROVED BY

............................ I A Ferguson

.............................. H J Geldenhuys TDM

............................. P Crowdy for TESCOD

............................. M N Bailey DTM for ED (D)

Contents
Page 1 Introduction............................................................................................................................... 2 Domestic load........................................................................................................................... 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 The nature of domestic load ............................................................................................. The After Diversity Demand (ADD) .................................................................................. Peak load and ADMD ....................................................................................................... The Beta distribution ........................................................................................................ Consumption classification and load denisties ................................................................ 3 3 3 4 5 8 12 13 13 14 14 14 14 15

3 Load forecasting ADMD estimation....................................................................................... 3.1 Measurment...................................................................................................................... 3.2 Energy load factor method ............................................................................................... 3.3 Heman-Beta method......................................................................................................... 4 Load forecasting long range .................................................................................................. 4.1 Background....................................................................................................................... 4.2 Forecasting techniques .................................................................................................... Figures and Tables

Figure 1: The load profile for a low-income consumer in Durban. Source: NRS LR Project, logger UA114, Umgaga, 98/6/18. ................................................................................................................... 3 Figure 2: ADD profile vs. single consumer profile. NRS LR Project, Umgaga, 98/6/18...............
MGM/lm/as-1/Feb00

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Figure 3: Household demand at the peak vs. Peak household demand. Source: Walmer dunes, NRS LR Project 1997 ............................................................................................................................ 7 Figure 4: Distirbution of wealthy consumers at time of the peak ................................................. Figure 5: Derivation of Parameters for Beta distribution of domestic consumer loads................ Figure 6: Load Growth Curves ..................................................................................................... Table 1: Factors affecting size of a demand peak ...................................................................... Table 2: Recommended Herman-Beta parameters for various consumer-types ....................... Table 3: Consumption class ........................................................................................................ Table 4: Domestic Load Density Classifications ......................................................................... 8 9 18 6 11 13 14

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1 Introduction
This section describes the nature of residential domestic load and simple methods to estimate or forecast the anticipated load. Two main points are discussed, General background and Load forecasting A) General background & Domestic load A general discussion regarding household load is presented, followed by a definition of ADMD and load densities. B) Load Forecasting Load forecasting include methods to determine ADMD and long range ADMD growth

2 Domestic load
2.1 The nature of domestic load
2.1.1 The household load profile
A typical household load profile is shown below. The cycling of a thermostatically controlled device (probably a fridge in this case) is apparent during the night hours. There are three periods of activity, which are typical of domestic consumers: Morning, noon, evening, and the sleeping period.

Household load current [A]

15 10 5 0 0:00

6:00

12:00 Time of day

18:00

0:00

Figure 1: The load profile for a low-income consumer in Durban. Source: NRS LR Project, logger UA1-4, Umgaga, 98/6/18.

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2.1.2 Magnitude of household peaks
Magnitude of an individual household peak is a function of: a) how many appliances are in a dwelling; and

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b) the chance that any number of appliance/s will be in use at a particular time Appliance ownership is strongly related to wealth levels. Upmarket consumers tend to possess large appliances which are thermostatically controlled. The use of these appliances is not under conscious human control, and their presence impacts greatly on the household load. Load surveys have shown that consumers in low-income townships (i.e. semi-formal and informal shack-dweller) do not possess such fundamental capacity and rarely develop more than 20A of current.

2.1.3 Periodicity of household profiles

Individual domestic consumer peaks are not very repetitive. On a day-to-day basis the profiles do not repeat themselves exactly. Consequently, each consumer load profile is unique, and most times, is not guaranteed to be like that of their physical neighbour.

2.2 The After Diversity Demand (ADD)

The after diversity demand is the average load of a large group of consumers (defined as load per consumer). A typical ADD profile is shown below, and represents the average load of 67 consumers over this day. It has been mapped against the consumer load profile that was shown in Figure 1. As an example of how different individual consumers can be, the correlation between these profiles is only 25 % on this particular day.

14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 0:00

Load current [A/household]

6:00

12:00
Time of day

18:00

0:00

Consumer

ADD (67 consumers)

Figure 2: ADD profile vs. single consumer profile. NRS LR Project, Umgaga, 98/6/18.

The ADD profile shown represents the sum of individual load tendencies of this entire community. However, whilst the ADD profile is a fair representation of the tendencies, it does not represent individual consumer differences are at any particular time.

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2.3 Peak loads and ADMD

2.3.1 What is a peak?
The peak for a large group of consumers is called the ADMD, and may be defined as the highest demand encountered when a large group of consumers is monitored. ADMD is expressed as an average value per household. When ADMD is assessed in the field, maximum demand indicators are used, at transformer level, and the absolute value is adjusted for: a) other loads (i.e. street-lighting shops etc.); and b) number of participating consumers. In practice, the estimates so derived are only as good as the record-keeping systems surrounding these assumptions, and errors may be appreciable particularly in fast-growing areas where the true connection rate is difficult to assess.

2.3.2 ADMD definition

Refer to Part 0 of this standard for a full definition of ADMD. After diversity maximum demand (ADMD) is the simultaneous Maximum Demand of a group homogeneous customers divided by the number of customers, normally expressed in kVA. Thus the ADMD of N Customers is:-

ADMD( N ) =

MD( N ) N

This value generally decreases to an approximate constant value for 1000 or more customers and has therefore been chosen as a convenient reference value, since the Diversity Factor generally does not increase significantly beyond 1000 customers.

2.3.3 Factors which affect the size of a demand peak

Peaks in the load of groups of consumers are primarily due to two factors: a) individual house-loads tend to be higher; and b) individual house-loads tend to overlap, and hence add up (i.e. they have higher coincidence or correlation). Therefore, any factor, which affects these two items in the same direction, will tend to increase the demand load.

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Factor Wealth level

Effect Wealth is associated with appliance ownership. This raises the demand of a house. Big appliances tend to overlap between houses.

Living habits of the community

Individuals or groups in communities that tend do things at the same time tend to generate higher peak loads by correlation. Hostel dwellers tend to have breakfast at the same time. However, they tend to be poor, so the house loads are limited. Thus the value of their peak is suppressed to some extent. Local traditions, like the Cape Sunday Lunch can have a major effect upon peaks. This is a good example of behaviour which is highly correlated at a time-of-day and day-of-week. Certain very popular television programmes have similar effects in wealthy communities, although these are rather transient.

Climatic severity Bad weather causes house loads to be bigger, and more correlated. These two factors give rise to higher loads. Bad weather is worst where low temperature correlates to high rainfall. Network events (Voltage drop, DSM and power failure/restore) Voltage drop: Most appliances are thermostatically controlled. Therefore, lowered voltage would tend to increase their correlation. This is offset by reduced consumption because of lowered voltage. For all practical purposes groups of consumers act like constant current loads. They are voltage invariant. Cold-load-pickup: Cold-load-pickup following a general power failure causes very high coincidence. House loads are high, and are considerably correlated. DSM: Demand-side management is an example of intentional cold load pick up where only certain appliances are disconnected. Generally, the reconnected load is highly correlated, and its aggregate effect may be as large as the total connected load of the controlled appliance. Current-limiting Mild current-limiting (i.e. 60-80 A in a medium income area) tends to limit the upper demand that individual households can take. It does not affect correlation, and so has a very small limiting effect upon ADMD. Significant current-limiting: Will only limit demand if it is an effective constraint (i.e. 2.5 A in a rich area). Severe current limiting affects the choice of appliances that consumers would acquire, if they had a choice. In general, therefore it limits the potential household demand, but does not affect the coincidence of demands++. Table 1: Factors affecting size of a demand peak

++ Latest research has not shown currentlimiting is not statistically significant in the determination of level of ADMD.

2.3.4 Household demand at the peak vs. peak household demand

At the time of the ADMD, the community registers its highest load value (per definition). The highest peak load that a household develops (at any instant) could be called its potential to contribute to the system peak, and the value is limited by the consumers circuit breaker.

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The difference between household demand at the peak and Peak household demand is merely coincidence between households.

Figure 3: Household demand at the peak vs. Peak household demand. Source: Walmer dunes, NRS LR Project 1997.

Figure 3 illustrates an example of a poor community. The average household demand at the peak is 2.8A(0,6 kVA). The average of the peak household demands is 13.6A(3,1 kVA). The difference is a factor of 4-5 times the ADMD, typical of poorer areas. In areas where the circuit breaker limit constrains the demand, this ratio approaches a value of 2, and the ratio :- average-of-the-peak-household-demands to CB-size approaches unity. Also evident from Figure 3 is the dispersion of the consumers about the average value at the time of the peak. Most consumer loads are very small. Very few are big. No consumer takes more than 32.5 A at the time of the peak. The dispersion of consumers may be measured by their Standard deviation. A big standard deviation means the consumers are not very coincident (i.e. they are diverse). The shape of the dispersion at peak times is wealth-related. Normally poor consumers have a high standard deviation per unit of mean (i.e. greater than 1.0pu), whilst wealthy consumers are progressively lower and approach about 0.5pu. Because the dispersion of consumers at the time of the peak is an expression of coincidence/diversity, it is important to describe the shape of the distribution with reasonable accuracy. The Beta distribution is used to do this, and the Herman Beta method is used to estimate the voltage drops in a probabilistic manner. For simplicity, the Beta parameters used to describe the distribution are referred to as Herman-Beta parameters.

2.4 The Beta distribution

The Beta distribution is similar to a normal (i.e. gaussian) distribution, excepting: a) the lower limit of the distribution is fixed at zero; and

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b) the upper limit of the distribution is fixed at the circuit breaker size for the community. A typical Herman-Beta distribution for some very wealthy consumers is shown in Figure 4. The ADMD is in the region of 22A (5 kVA).
0.16 0.14 0.12 Probability [pu] 0.1 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Household current [A] Average value of consumers at this time is the ADMD (literally the line along which the curve balances)

Figure 4: Distribution of wealthy consumers at time of the peak

The shape of any Beta distribution is defined by two parameters:- a and b. The whole curve is scaled by C, the circuit breaker size.

2.4.1 Recommended Herman-Beta parameters

Table 2 gives the latest guide to the Herman-Beta parameters for various consumer classes. The recommendations contained in Table 2 were derived directly from data collected via 2 sources: a) NRS LR Project (21 township-winters); and b) ESKOM TRI Poor, rural & restricted consumer LR Project (6 township-winters).

2.4.2 Classification and modelling of major consumer groups

Statistical significance testing was used to find out what Socio-demographic factors are important for determination of ADMD. Hot water geyser penetration was found to be the single most significant factor associated with magnitude of a communitys demand. Thus two strata were identified in the collected load data: a) those consumer groups with high hot water geyser penetration; and b) consumer groups with low hot water geyser penetration were placed in both strata. Consumer groups with intermediate hot water geyser penetration were placed in both strata. Prediction models for ADMD in the two strata were then derived. From the field-research conducted to date, it appears that ADMD is more than 90% explained (i.e. correlation) by aggregate wealth and time-with-electricity of the target community (See Figure 6).

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The dispersion of consumers about the ADMD is 90% dependent upon the level of the ADMD. Figure 5: Derivation of Parameters for Beta distribution of domestic consumer loads

Wealth Time-electrified

90%

ADMD

90%

Std. deviation

CB size

Beta parameters (a,b,c)

The prediction-error (i.e. Standard error) of this model on the real field data was found to be less than 1.4A(0.32kVA) per household. Since field-data revealed such strong linkages between consumer loads and wealth/time-electrified, these two factors were used to generate estimates of demand for different distinct consumer classes, at different times after electrification, for new consumers (shown in Table 2).

2.4.3 Guidelines for selection and manipulation of Herman-Beta parameters

The following steps should be followed: a) from specific knowledge of the community, assess if households are likely to be reticulated with inhouse piped water, within the planning time-window. This is an important factor; b) from specific knowledge of the community, identify the class of consumer from either the class description, a local gross-income survey or local LSM-related Market research information; c) decide upon the circuit breaker size that will be used (i.e. 20A, 60A etc.); d) select the planning window (i.e. 7 or 15 years), and look up the estimated ADMD and Std deviation; e) apply the calculation to get Beta values (i.e. a,b :See later); and f) give the result a bounds-check (See later)

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Description

RURAL SETTLEMENTS Income: Derived from pensions and subsistence farming, some work far away in the cities. Dwellings: Mainly traditional construction methods. Roads: Rather inaccessible, informal tracks. Water: Not Laid on. RURAL VILLAGES Income: Income derived from pensions & subsistence farming with some bread winners employed in near industrialised areas, with daily commuting. Dwellings: A mixture of modern building influence and traditional construction. Roads: A spectrum of formal tar to dirt road. Reasonable access. Water: Could be laid on. SQUATTER AREA Income: Derived from working formally I the city or town, with some income from informal jobs. Dwellings: Shacks Roads: Spectrum of formal to self-made. Reasonable access. Water: Not laid on. TOWNSHIP Income: Derived from working in cities and towns, pensions, informal employment. Dwellings: Old township houses. New government schemes, self-build etc. Roads: Formally laid out tar or dirt. Water: Laid per pipe into the house. URBAN SUBURB Income: Derived form working n cities & suburbs & some small business. Dwellings:Older brick houses poorly kept, with rough gardens. Servants quarters. Roads: Tarred. Water: Laid per pipe into house.

Income Range [R:1998]& LSM rating Squatter informal LSM1

Circuit Breaker size 2.5

Alpha

Beta

11.5

12.5

Squatter informal LSM 1-2

20

0.52

1.33

Squatter informal LSM 2

60

0.94

8.63

Poor LSM 3-4

60

1.15

6.78

Lower middle LSM 5-6

60

1.24

3.5

Table 2: Recommended Herman-Beta parameters for various consumer-types

Notes 1:Descriptors of the consumer classes are provided which are essentially time-invariant. Notes 2: LSM = All Media & Product Survey (i.e. AMPS) Living Standards Measure

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2.4.4 Conversion from ADMD to Herman-Beta

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The method of conversion from ADMD and Std deviation to Herman-Beta parameters is merely a pair of formulas:

(C 2 2 ) a= C 2
Where: a,b = shape parameters of the Beta distribution. C = Circuit breaker limit in use. = ADMD [A]

(C )(C 2 2 ) b= C 2

= Standard deviation consumer loads at the ADMD [A]. These formulas are very easy to implement in a spreadsheet.

2.4.5 Simple bounds-check for Herman-Beta parameters

Any beta parameters should comply with the following rule-base: a) in most normal situations, a should be less than b; and b) in situations where the circuit load is constrained by the circuit breaker limit:1) the relationship between CB limit (C), & is:

C > + 3 ; and

2) we have found a and b are nearly equal in such situations, and the ADMD tends to reach a maximum of about half of the Circuit breaker value (C).

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2.5 Consumption classification & Load densities

2.5.1 Consumption classification
An approximate indication of the link between ADMD and consumption patterns is tabled below from NRS 034. Consumers can be divided into classes according to estimated annual (or monthly) consumption as the table below indicates. The annual load factor is at township level (full diversity). CONSUMPTION APPROX. FINAL CLASS LOADING AND DESIGN ADMD Very high 6 to 9 kVA High 3 to 6 kVA Medium 1,5 to 3 kVA Low 0.5 to 1,5 kVA Very low 0.5 kVA Table 3: Consumption class
Note 1: Consumers in the very low consumption class would typically use electricity for internal lighting and entertainment. Note 2: Consumers in the low consumption class would typically use electricity for internal lighting and a limited range of appliances such as a hot plate, an iron, a kettle, and possibly a fridge and television. Note 3: Consumers in the medium consumption class would typically use electricity for a stove with an oven, limited space heating, a fridge, a television, in addition to the items mentioned in b). Note 4: Consumers in the high consumption class would typically use electricity for a hot water geyser, instant water heaters, a washing machine, space heating, in addition to those items mentioned in c). Note 5: Consumers in the very high class would for example have a second or third geyser, air conditioning, flood lighting, a Jacuzzi, etc., in addition to the items in d).

APPROXIMATE APPROX. KWH APPROX. KWH ANNUAL LOAD PER ANNUM PER MONTH FACTOR 30% - 45% > 19 000 > 1 600 25% - 35% 7 500 to 19 000 600 to 1 600 20% - 30% 3 000 to 7 500 250 to 600 15% - 25% 1 200 to 3 000 100 to 250 10% - 20% < 1 200 < 100

More investigatory work is needed in the area of correlating the annual energy consumption of consumers, the major classification characteristics of the consumers and the expected ADMD. Consumption classification can be achieved by doing appropriate market research programmes and economic studies for each area to be electrified. This type of work is usually done by consultants with the necessary marketing and engineering background.

2.5.2 Load density classification

In determining the classification of electrification areas the average area/household should be calculated (i.e. total area to be electrified should be divided by the number of households to be supplied). For urban areas this will be directly related to the average stand size. The average number of houses per km2 is easily calculated. A range of average area load densities in kW/km2 can now be determined using estimated ranges of ADMD. For domestic urban applications, the future ADMD will generally range between 0,5 and 4,5 kVA. (Can be higher for very high-income groups). Load density (kW/km ) which is a function of ADMD and stand size is a very useful aid during technology selection and calculating voltage drop. Example: The first step is to determine the total load for the township by multiplying the final ADMD with the total number of DSPs.
2

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Township load = ADMD x DSPs (kW)

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Secondly, determine the total area to be supplied, excluding open spaces such as parks etc. (in km ) Example: ADMD = 0,6 kVA DSPs = 1500 Area = 1 km
2

Total load = 0,6 x 1500 = 900 kW Load density = 900 kW/km

2

The table below can be used to select a township domestic density classification. DOMESTIC DENSITY CLASSIFICATION STAND SIZE (m )
2

AVE LOAD DENSITY (kW/km ) ( ADMDmin = 0.5 kVA ADMDmax = 4.5 kVA ) to 30 000 to 5 000 to 1 500 to 250

URBAN: 2 High Density(HD) < 1 000 m 2 2 Med. Density(MD) 1 000 m to 4 000 m 2 2 Low Density(LD) 4 000 m to 20 000 m 2 RURAL: > 20 000 m Table 4 : Domestic Load Density Classifications

500 300 100 0.5

Using the example above and according to the above table, a medium density urban township is described.

3 Load forecasting - ADMD estimation

3.1 Measurement
The ADMD at any instance in time may be determined by measuring the maximum demand of a representative existing township over the peak month (Typically winter for Johannesburg). Non-residential loads such as schools, hospitals and small industries must be excluded from this measurement exercise to ensure homogeneity. (Only the peak time contribution of these loads must be subtracted from the overall measured ADMD to take non-residential diversity into account).
MDresidential = MDtotal MDnon _ res

Practically the following steps are required: a) measure the maximum demand of the electrification area. Determine the time of day when the peak occurs. b) estimate the contribution of non-residential loads during the peak period. For example a school will only contribute a small % of its maximum load during evening peaks since the school would be not be occupied during these periods. non-residential load Clinic School Canteen / Shop Hospital Typical peak time co incidence factor 0.05 to 0.15 0.05 to 0.10 0.50 to 1.00 0.50 to 1.00

c) subtract the sum of these peak time contributions to obtain the maximum demand associated with residential load only.

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d) the total number of households or domestic supply points (DSPs) in the area is required to finally calculate the ADMD value. The ADMD is then simply:
ADMD = MDresidential DSPs

(provided that DSPs > 100 to allow for full diversity) If DSPs < 100 then adjust the ADMD as follows:
ADMD100 = ADMDDSPs DFDSPs (Refer to Section 28 clause 3.1 for more information) DF100

3.2 Energy load factor method

A further approach is where energy sales forecasts are available, or if sales need to be estimated, the ADMD can be determined by estimating a load factor at township level which is typically between 10 % and 45 %. Example: For a township the expected 20 year horizon for energy sales is estimated to be 200 units per month with sales of 120 units in seven years time. The monthly load factor for the township is estimated to be 26 % for both time horizons.
ADMD final = ADMDseven kWh 200 = = 11 kVA . LF hours 0.26 30 24 kWh 120 = = = 0.6 kVA hours 0.26 30 24 LF

3.3 Heman-Beta method

The ADMD can be calculated if the Beta parameters are available:

ADMD =

Imax 230 + 1000

if =0.8 , =6, Imax=20 then ADMD = 0.54 kVA1

4 Load forecasting long range

4.1 Background
Load forecasting impacts the whole network plan and directly impacts capital expenditure. Residential township load forecasting focuses on ADMD forecasting over a 15 to 20 year period which reflects the economic life of the plant. ADMD is used for MV/LV transformer sizing and to calculate voltage drop over the LV feeders, service cables and MV/LV transformers. The design ADMD selection refers to the future ADMD. The most critical concept is to forecast the future load profiles over peak load periods for various groupings of customers. This statistical distribution of customer demands over peak periods is influenced by the: a) affluence of the community to afford major energy intensive appliances and pay for the energy used; b) the impact of appliance marketing strategies;

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c) household and community preferences and habits in using these appliances over peak periods; d) availability and preference of alternative energies; e) how cold the winter is; and f) water heating requirements & other lifestyle issues.

The growth and changes in these patterns needs to be forecasted over the economic life of the project so the appropriate phased upgrade investment decisions can be made. The customer's peak load characteristics are normally defined in terms of:a) an After Diversity Maximum Demand (ADMD) figure for one thousand or more customers; b) a diversity or coincidence factor graph or equation to depict how the ADMD increases as the sample of customers decreases down to one customer; and c) various unbalance correction factors or statistical parameters to account for customers taking a single phase supply which is not balanced in terms of time or physical connection to the LV distributor. The choice of design ADMD determines the masterplan layout from which the phased implementation plan is built.

4.2 Forecasting techniques

4.2.1 Final vs. initial ADMD
Two ADMD figures should be determined prior to any other analysis work or technology decisions: An initial ADMD figure is required to determine the first phase of the future masterplan. The initial ADMD should be used to determine an initial transformer sizing and zoning as well as to define a phased upgrade plan. The phased upgrade should be planned for in the network layout by initially planning on the future ADMD, and then scaling back the investment to cater for the initial time horizon. A masterplan ADMD (final) for loads in 15 to 20 years time that is the major influencing parameter that determines the masterplan township layout. Implementing a project using the future ADMD, will result in unnecessary capital expenditure. Transformers will be oversized (or too numerous) and transformer iron losses will be excessive. It is thus required to use the initial ADMD value for initial implementation to cater for the anticipated loads for the first 5 to 7 years from project inception. Essential to the viability of the project over time is to use a phased upgrade plan which progresses from the initial plan towards the masterplan using the respective ADMD values

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4.2.2 S-Curve forecasting

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The load growth can be modelled on a typical S curve as depicted below.

Load Growth
Load Limit 1600 1400 1200 20 A ED 60 A ED Total kVA

Load (kVA)

1000 800 600 400 200 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Year
Figure 6: Load Growth Curves

Other loads such as schools and clinics would typically have no load growth unless expansion of the facility is expected.

4.2.3 % growth exponential

Many planners use a constant percentage to grow the load over time. This means starting for instance with 100kVA and grow it with 2 %. Further growth includes growth upon growth. Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 Load kVA increase 100.00 0.00 102.00 2.00 104.04 2.04 106.12 2.08 108.24 2.12 110.41 2.16

4.2.4 % growth flat

Some planners use a constant kVA value to grow the load over time. This means starting for instance with 100kVA and grow it with 2kVA per year: Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 Load kVA increase 100.00 0.00 102.00 2.00 104.00 2.00 106.00 2.00 108.00 2.00 110.00 2.00