Statistics and Ethics: Some Advice for Young Statisticians

Author(s): Stephen B. Vardeman and Max D. Morris

Source: The American Statistician, Vol. 57, No. 1 (Feb., 2003), pp. 21-26
Published by: American Statistical Association
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/3087273
Accessed: 22/04/2009 07:58

Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use, available at
http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp. JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use provides, in part, that unless
you have obtained prior permission, you may not download an entire issue of a journal or multiple copies of articles, and you
may use content in the JSTOR archive only for your personal, non-commercial use.

Please contact the publisher regarding any further use of this work. Publisher contact information may be obtained at
http://www.jstor.org/action/showPublisher?publisherCode=astata.

Each copy of any part of a JSTOR transmission must contain the same copyright notice that appears on the screen or printed
page of such transmission.

JSTOR is a not-for-profit organization founded in 1995 to build trusted digital archives for scholarship. We work with the
scholarly community to preserve their work and the materials they rely upon, and to build a common research platform that
promotes the discovery and use of these resources. For more information about JSTOR, please contact support@jstor.org.

American Statistical Association is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to The
American Statistician.

http://www.jstor.org
 Gieneral
Statistics and Ethics: Some Advice for Young Statisticians
and Max D. MORRIS
Stephen B. VARDEMAN
We write to young statisticiansaboutthe natureof statisticsand
theirresponsibilitiesas membersof the statisticalprofession.We
observethatthe practiceof the disciplineis inherentlymoraland
that this fact has serious implicationsfor their work. In light of
this, we offer some advice about how they should resolve to
think and act.
KEY WORDS: Graduatestudy; Integrity;Principle;Profes-
sional practice;Research;Teaching.
Dear Gentle Reader:
So, you are embarkingon a careerin statistics.Good. It is a
genuinely noble pursuit,though this may be hardto see as you
wrestle with new-to-you technical issues varying from "How
do I get this SAS job to run?"to "How do I show this thing is
UMVU?"andon occasion findyourselfwondering"Whatis the
point of all this?"
This last question aboutpurposeis actuallya very important
and quite serious one. It has implications that run far beyond
your present pain (and joy) of "gettingstarted."How you an-
swer it will affect not only you, but also the profession, and
human society at large. We write to offer some advice and en-
couragement,and to say how we hope you frame your answer
to this simultaneouslypracticaland cosmic question.
What are this subject and this profession really all about?
And why are you doing what you are doing? For sure, there
are details to learn (and keep currenton throughouta career).
Thereis everythingfrom the seemingly uncountablenumberof
tricks of first year probabilitytheory,to statisticalcomputing,
to nonlinearmodels. It initially looks like "soup to nuts."You
know thatstatisticsis aboutcollecting andhandlingdata.Thatis
true,but incomplete;thereis much more thanthatat work here.
The vital point is that this discipline providestools, patterns
of thought,and habits of heartthat will allow you to deal with
data with integrity.At its core statisticsis not about cleverness
Stephen B. Vardemanis Professor, and Max D. Morris is Professor, De-
partmentof Statistics and Departmentof Industrialand ManufacturingSys-
tems Engineering,Iowa State UniversityAmes, IA 50011-1210 (E-mail:varde-
man@iastate.edu).The authorsgratefullyacknowledgethe generous inputof a
numberof colleagues. KarenKafadar,Bob Stephenson,Bill Meeker,and Dean
Isaacsonprovideddetailedcommentson a firstdraftof this article.And the input
of Ken Ryan, TammyBrown, Mike Moon, Bill Notz, Tom Dubinin,FrankPe-
ters, David Moore, Bill Duckworth,Bruce Held, Dennis Gilliland,Bobby Mee,
Doug Bonett, Dan Nettleton,and Hal Sternis also gratefullyacknowledged.
?) 2003 AmericanStatisticalAssociation DOI: 10.1198/0003130031072
and technique, but ratherabout honesty. Its real contribution
to society is primarilymoral, not technical. It is about doing
the right thing when interpretingempiricalinformation.Statis-
ticians are not the world's best computerscientists, mathemati-
cians, or scientificsubjectmatterspecialists.Weare (potentially,
at least) the best at theprincipledcollection, summarization,and
analysis of data. Our subjectprovides a frameworkfor dealing
transparentlyand consistentlywith empiricalinformationfrom
all fields; means of seeing and portrayingwhat is true;ways of
avoiding being fooled by both the ill intent (or ignorance) of
others and our own incorrectpredispositions.The mix of the-
ory and methods that you are discovering is the best available
for achieving these noble ends. The more you practicewith it,
the sharperwill become your (fundamentallymoral)judgments
aboutwhat is appropriatein handlingempiricalinformation.
Othersfrom areasrangingfrom philosophyto physics might
well object that we have claimed too much, wrappingstatistics
in a cloak of virtueto the apparentexclusionof otherdisciplines.
After all, thoughtfulscientists and humanistsfrom a varietyof
fields are engaged in the pursuitof truth.And any serious ed-
ucation has moral dimensions. Our point, however, is that the
particularrole that the profession plays in science and society
shouldnot be viewed as amoral,andthatthis fact constrainshow
we all must thinkand act as its members.
That society expects our profession to play this kind of role
can be seen in the place statisticshas as arbiterof what is suf-
ficient evidence of efficacy and safety to grant FDA approval
of a drug, or enough evidence to supportan advertiser'sclaim
for the effectiveness of a consumerproduct.And it can be seen
in the fact that many disciplines have "statisticalsignificance"
requirementsfor resultsappearingin theirjournals.
Society also recognizes that when statistical argumentsare
abused,whetherthroughmalice or incompetence,genuineharm
is done. How else could a book titled How to Lie WithStatis-
tics (Huff 1954) have ever been published and popular?The
famousline (attributedby MarkTwain(1924) to BenjaminDis-
raeli) "Therearethreekindsof lies: lies, damnedlies, and statis-
tics" witnesses effectively to society's distaste for obfuscation
or outrightdishonestycloaked in the garbof statisticaltechnol-
ogy. Society disdainshypocrisy.It hatescrookedlawyers,shady
corporateexecutives, and corruptaccountants,and it has con-
temptfor statisticiansandstatisticalworkthatlack integrity.But
young statisticianssometimes find themselves being "encour-
aged" to offer questionableinterpretationsof data. This pres-
surecan come even from well-meaningindividualswho believe
thattheironly interestis in ensuringthattheirposition is treated
"fairly."Maintainingan independentand principledpoint-of-
The American Statistician, February 2003, Vol. 57, No. 1 21
view in such contexts is critical if a statisticianhopes to avoid
becoming a partof Disraeli's third"lie."
So, you areembarkingupona noble and seriousbusiness.We
take as given that you have a basic moral sense and a strong
desire to personallydo good. We also take as self-evident that
integrityis a patternof life, not an incident. Principledpeople
consistentlydo principledwork,regardlessof whetherit serves
theirshort-termpersonalinterests.Integrityis not somethingthat
is turnedon and off at one's convenience.It cannotbe generally
lackingandyet be countedon to appearin the nick of time when
the greater good calls. This implies that what you choose to
thinkand do now, early in your career,are very good predictors
of what you will think and do throughoutthe whole of it. You
are settingpatternsthatwill endureover a professionallifetime
and substantiallyinfluencethe natureandvalue of whatyou can
hope to accomplish.
A fair amounthas been writtenabout professionalethics in
statisticsand we do not proposeto review it all or commenton
every issue thathas been raised.For example,Deming's (1986)
articleis fundamentallya discussion of ethics. Both the Amer-
ican StatisticalAssociation (1999) and the InternationalStatis-
tical Institute(1985) have official statementson ethical guide-
lines for statisticians.And in a moregeneralsetting,the National
Academyof Sciences (1995) has publisheda useful bookletthat
is primarilyaboutethics in science andhas implicationsfor sta-
tistical practice.
Our more specific goal here is to suggest some things that
a high view of the discipline means for your presentwork and
attitudes.Aiming to speak to both statistics graduatestudents
and recentgrads,we'll begin with some implicationsfor life in
graduateschool, and then move on to implicationsfor an early
careerin the discipline.
ADVICE FOR STATISTICS GRADUATE STUDENTS
"Graduatestudent ethics" (or for that matter "professional
ethics")is reallyjust "plainethics"expressedin a graduatestu-
dent(or professional)world.A discussionof it reallyboils down
to considerationof circumstancesand issues that arise in a par-
ticulargraduatestudent(or professional)setting. So an obvious
place to begin is with generalstudentresponsibilities.If you are
still in graduateschool, we urgeyou to be scrupulousaboutyour
conductin the courses you take. Here are some specifics:
* Resolve to never accept credit for work that is not your
own. It should make no difference to you whetheran exam is
proctoredor unproctored.Whateverthe homeworkpolicy of the
course, make it your practice to clearly note on your papers
places whereyou have gainedfrom discussionswith classmates
or consultingold problemsets of others.It's simply rightto give
otherscreditwhere it is deservedand it's simply wrong to take
creditwhere it is undeserved.
* If course policy is that everyone is "completely on their
own,"resolve in advanceto politely refuse to discuss with peers
topics thatareoff-limits, even if othersviolate the policy. It may
seem a smallthingat the time, butyou aresettinglife trajectories
thatare bigger thanthe particularincidents.
22 General
* Determineto nevertake advantageof (or over) your peers.
If you join a group study session, be ready to make your fair
contribution,not just to benefit from the input of others.If you
have legitimateaccess to old files or notes or textbooksthatare
helpful, let others know about them so that they can benefit as
well.
What do these threepoints say? Simply thatyou shouldplay
by the rules set out and be clear and honest about all contri-
butions made to the work you turn in. Why would anyone do
otherwise?Honestly,only to gain an undeservedadvantagein a
coursegrade,or to avoid some effort.But a studentwilling to cut
corers for an A or a free weekend will have serious difficulty
not cutting corners in later professional responsibilitieswhen
the rewardis a promotionor pay raise or a free weekend.
Some additionalissues arerelatedto the notion of "doingthe
hardthing."Everyonehas thingsthatcome harderfor themthan
others. It's humannatureto want to avoid what is difficultand
to even convince ourselves thatreally, the easy thing is what is
importantand the hardthing is worthless. But that is not only
obviously silly, it has moral implications.Here is some advice
for the studentreader:
* Understandthat acquiringan advancededucationis a dif-
ficult enterprise,that there may be times when you feel like
complainingabout this, but that it doesn't really help to do so.
Whiningwastes energyandcan poison the learningatmosphere
for others.Youareengagedin a noble, if difficult,pursuit.Give it
yourbest shot withoutcomplaining.Afterall, most thingsworth
doing are hard.
* Resolve to work on your weaknesses ratherthan excuse
them.Doing good statisticalworkis important,anddemandsthe
best possible personaltool kit. The reasoning "I find methods
(theory) easier than theory (methods), so I'll just do methods
(theory)"implicitly and quite wrongly assumes that one can do
good statisticalwork with half a tool kit.
* Decide not to denigratethe strengthsof others.Give other
people credit for what they can do that you cannot. Find your
niche without minimizing the honest efforts and contributions
of others.
* Determineto takethe coursesthatwill enable you to be the
best-educatedand most effective statisticianyou can be. These
are often academically demanding, and may not form a par-
ticularlyeasy route to a high GPA. While difficulty,per se, is
not necessarily a measure of how often you will find the ma-
terial in a course useful, it is related to the mental discipline
you will develop. If you choose a course that covers material
you could easily pick up on your own or because it is taught
by a professorwho demandslittle in exchange for an A, you've
cheated yourself. The choices you make about curriculumare
moralchoices, notjust choices of convenience.You have a lim-
ited time in graduateschool ... use it wisely. How effective you
will be as a professionaldepends on it. Besides, your choices
say somethingnontrivialaboutthe personalcharacterthat you
are developing.
* Purposeto do what your thesis or dissertationadvisorsets
for you to do, as independentlyas you can. While it may seem
that some assignmentsare arbitraryor unnecessary,remember
thatyou do not haveyour advisor'sexperienceas a researcheror
educator.This personknows whatyou know,whatyourabilities
are, and the difficulty of your problem. He or she is trying to
help you to develop as a responsibleand independentmember
of the profession,one accustomedto consistentlyworkingup to
your capabilities.Focusing your energy on the challenge of the
problem and the opportunityit representswill take you much
fartherthanwasting your energy in grumblingor in negotiating
to be led throughevery detail of a solution.
It is worthaddinga furthernote relatedto this last point. The
advisor-advisee experience has the potential to be invigorat-
ing and rewarding(bothprofessionallyandpersonally)for both
parties.Thinkof the effortsyou put into it not only as a require-
ment for the degree, but as the beginning of what may be one
of your most importantand cherishedlong-termrelationships.
Find someone to work with who you like and respect, and put
your energy into the enterprise.
Most statisticsgraduatestudentswork as graduateassistants.
Assistants should rememberfirst that an assistantshipis not a
fellowship, but rathera job. And it is axiomaticthat principled
people returnhonest effortfor theirpay.If you areworkingon a
faculty member'sgrant,thatperson must producequalitywork
in line with the interests of some outside entity. Do what you
can to help him or her. If you are a teaching assistant, there
are lectures to conscientiously prepareand deliver, papers to
carefully grade, and students to help. If you are a consultant,
people with real problemsof data analysis will appearat your
door seeking aid. They need your best effort and advice. Let us
amplify a bit:
* If you area researchassistantit is understoodthatyou have
"your own" class work and thesis or dissertationto attendto.
But some of your weekly hoursare firstcommittedto providing
the help (programming,librarywork, reportwriting,etc.) your
employer needs. There are importanteducationalbenefits that
accrueas you practiceat these duties. But the most fundamental
reasonto carrythemout conscientiouslyandcheerfullyis simply
thatit is the rightthingto do. (Andit is wrongto thinkthatcutting
corers now doesn't say anythingaboutlaterbehavior.Life will
always be hectic and there is no reason to expect your work
habits after finishing school to be betterthan the ones you are
developing now.)
* If you are a teaching assistant,purpose to make the best
of the fact that along with some conscientious, motivated,and
pleasantstudents,you will deal with some unpleasant,intention-
ally ignorant,lazy, and dishoneststudents.It simply comes with
the territory.Foryourpart,makeit a pointto model integrityand
purposefor all of them. Do yourbest to convey thatwhatyou are
teaching them really does matterand how they do it mattersas
well. Resolve that whateveryour "style"/personality(from an-
imated to reserved)your body language will convey a genuine
willingness to help. Thejob takespatience-plan on it. Resolve
to treatall of your studentswell, whetheror not their behavior
in any sense merits that. And it should go without saying that
althoughyou want to be pleasant and approachable,propriety
and impartialitydictate that you are their instructoror TA, not
theirpal.
* If your assignment is to help with statistical consulting,
you are alreadywrestling(at a "trainee"level) with some of the
seriousissues faced by one segmentof ourprofession.Carefully
consider and handle these now, as you begin to see how the
"humanelement" of statistical consulting requires thoughtful
and principleddiscipline. You're going to have to argue with
yourself in conversationslike:
- Whatlooks to me like the thingthatshouldbe done would
take two hours to explain and several more hours of my
time to implement,while this client would be happywith
somethingless appropriatethatI could explainin five min-
utes ...
- This client really wants "A"to be true,but these datalook
inconclusive ...
- This looks pretty much OK except for that oddity over
therethatthe client doesn't really want to discuss ...
GraduateStudent Reader,keep your eyes open during this
graduatestudent experience. Watch your faculty and emulate
the ones who take seriously what they do. There are some fine
role models in our university statistics departments,excellent
membersof the profession.Findthem, andlearnas muchas you
can aboutwhat they thinkand how they practicestatistics.
ADVICE FOR YOUNG PROFESSIONAL
STATISTICIANS
Many of the themes we've introducedin the context of grad-
uate study have their logical extensions to early professional
life. But there are also other mattersthat we've not yet raised.
We proceed to discuss some of the less obvious extrapolations
and furtherethical issues faced by young statisticians,organiz-
ing our advice aroundthe topics of (1) research/publication,(2)
teaching,and (3) professionalpractice.
If you have finished a Ph.D., you have been introducedto
the craft of researchin statisticaltheory or methods. You are
in a position to help develop the profession's supportingbody
of knowledge and to contributeto our journals. It's important
to consider the correspondingresponsibilities.These are tied
closely to a properview of the purposeof publicationin statis-
tics. Published statisticalresearchshould provide reliable and
substantialnew theoryor methodologythathas genuine poten-
tial to ultimatelyhelp statisticiansin the practice of the disci-
pline. Statisticalpublicationshould not be treatedas a game. It
is, and should be treatedas, a serious and moralbusiness. Here
are some points of advice issuing from this high view of what
the researchand publicationactivityis all about:
* Resolve thatif you choose to submitwork for publication,
it will be completeandrepresentyourbest effort.Submittingpa-
pers of little intrinsicvalue, half-donework, or work sliced into
small pieces sent to multiplevenues is an abuseof an important
communicationsystemandis not honorablescholarship.It is not
the job of editors or refereesto proofreador complete your pa-
pers, or to insist thatyou follow up on importantissues thatyou
know exist. See the "Let'sjust send it off and let the reviewers
TheAmericanStatistician,February2003, Vol.57, No. 1 23
sort it out"impulse for what it is, a temptationto off-load your giarismand is completely unacceptable.(This cautionextends,
work to someone else. And the "I'll just submitthis half-done by the way, to thesis and dissertationwork, even if thatwork is
thing to an outletthatwill printanything"strategydoes nothing never submittedto a journalfor formalpublication.)
of real value for anyone.It wastes time and effortof those in the
A note relatedto this last point: Avoiding plagiarismplaces
review system, and when "successful"it dilutes our literature.
an extraburdenon studentswhose writing skills are not strong,
This makes importantwork harderto find, and in the end calls
into questionour very reasonto exist as a profession. especially those strugglingwith English as a second language.
But it is essential to find one's own words and not simply copy
* Purposethatwhen askedto do thejob of a referee,you will or even paraphrasethose of another(even for parts of a paper
do it thoroughly,impartially,andin as timely a manneras possi- thatarebackgroundand obviously don't purportto providenew
ble. Thereis no obvious short-termpayoff to doing whatis right technicalcontent).This is a very serious integrityissue.
here. But the integrityand currencyof the scientificpublication Next, let's consider issues relevantto teaching of statistics
process dependon competentandprincipledrefereestakingthe as a professional. There are reasons to do this whether or not
job seriously.Resolve neverto do a shoddy/cursoryreviewjob, you have plans for a career at a college or university.Teach-
or worse yet to let calculationsaboutpersonalities(andpersonal ing/trainingis increasinglydone "inhouse"by corporationsand
advantage)governhow you judge a piece of work.Even though consultants,and it could be arguedthat most professionalpre-
many statisticsjournals use a "double-blind"system, the pro- sentationsareessentiallyteachingefforts.The logical extension
fession is small, and you will find it increasinglyrarethat you of the advice offeredabove to graduateteachingassistantsis, of
have no idea who authoreda paper you receive for review. So course, relevanthere. But thereis an importantextradimension
rememberthatthe spirit of the blindreview policy is honorable, to discuss, relatedto the freedom and responsibilitythat a pro-
and that you have an obligation to conduct your review in this fessional has in answeringthe question"Whatwill governwhat
spiriteven when you cannotbe completely"blind."And do what andhow I teach?"Will it be "What'seasy for me?"Or will it be
you can as an individualto help fix the widely recognizedprob- "Whatwill get the best short-termreactionfrom the students?"
lem thatthe reviewprocessin statisticsis presentlymuch slower Orwill it be "Mybest professionaljudgementas to whatthe stu-
thanin many otherdisciplines. dents need for the long termand my best understandingof how
to effectively convey thatinformation?"This is a moralchoice.
* Decide to routinelytake the advice of editors and referees
Here is some amplification:
regardingpapersthatyou submitfor publication.Occasionsare
rarewhereeditorsor refereeshaveit all wrongor purposelytreat * Determinethat you won't fall into the trap of organizing
an authorunfairly.Most often, the advice they offer is construc- all courses aroundyour technical specialty.This is an issue of
tive and when followed substantiallyimprovesan article.Until fundamentalhumilityandrecognitionthatnone of us has put all
an editor signals clearly that he or she has no furtherinterest that is needed into our personal little package (to say nothing
in a piece you have submitted,you should almost always make aboutthe matterof "truthin advertising!").But we suspectthat
good faith efforts to revise your paperin accordwith his or her you know what we are talking about, having seen people turn
advice. Serialjournal-shoppingfor a venue that will publish a every course they teach into a platformto show off their own
submissionwith essentially no revision may minimize the total work.
effort an authorexpends on a paper,but the practicewastes the * Purposenot to be governedby what is easy to do. This is
overallenergy of the professionand has a negativeeffect on the
not an entirelyseparateissue from the previousone. But we are
overall qualityof what is published.
also thinkingaboutcases wherethe case is not so blatantor not
* Determine to be scrupulousabout giving credit where it tied directly to one's specialty. It's a lot of work to learn new
is due. If anotherhas contributedsubstantiallyto the content methods and softwareto include in a course, to freshen exam-
of a paper,co-authorshipis typically appropriateand should be ples, to develop new laboratoriesand assignmentsfor students,
offered. (On the otherhand,never list a colleague as co-author to replace outdatedtopics and means of presentation.And it's
of a paperuntil you have thatperson'sexplicit permissionto do sometimespossible to "getby" withoutinvestingthateffort.But
so.) And include acknowledgmentsof others deserving thanks doing so is simply wrong. We urge you not to take thatroute.
for less extensive, but real, help with an article. * Resolve to do the best for yourstudents,whetheror not they
* Resolve to acknowledgepriorityand the derivativenature appreciateyoureffortsin the shortterm.We live in a "consumer"
of your work with due humility.If after the fact of publication society.Thereis hugepressureon teachersin all contextsto make
you find that some of your resultscan be found in earlierwork, studentshappy.But statisticsis hard,andstudentsDON'T know
immediatelysend an acknowledgmentto thateffect to the jour- whatthey need. Youwill. We hope thatyou opt to do yourbest to
nal where your paper appeared.In writing your papers in the provide that, not simply what will get the best crowd reaction.
firstplace, we encourageyou to be forthrightand helpful about Lots of jokes, little in the way of course demands, and high
whatyou know is alreadypublishedon yoursubject,delineating gradescan please manyaudiences.And leave studentsignorant.
carefullywhatothershavealreadysaidandwhereyournew con- Of course we should aim to be engaging in our presentationof
tributionlies. (No one ever really "startsfrom scratch."Don't our subject. But the point of teaching is to genuinely improve
fall prey to the temptationto leave unsaid what you know is subjectmatterknowledgeandthe reasoningpowersof students.
alreadyknown,thinkingthatto do so strengthensyour own po- It is not to produce feel-good experiences for them. (In this
sition.)And neverborrowpublished/copyrightedwords,even of regard,we were recently dismayed to see an Iowa community
your own authorship,withoutacknowledgment.To do so is pla- college presidentquoted in the Des Moines Register (2001) as
24 General
proudlysaying "Wearereally a service organizationfirstandan interestedin furtheringthe cause. In eithercase, it is axiomatic
educationalinstitutionsecond."While that may in fact be true, that your professionaljudgmentis potentiallyclouded by what
it is a terriblecommentaryon the state of the institution.) you (quite naturally)want to be true. And you will be no fair
judge of the extent to which this clouding has occurred.There
Those of you beginningacademiccareerswill face enormous is real
dangerhere. There is little that is more damningto the
demandsfor early success. Most universitiesrequiresubstantial
discipline than for one of its professionals,implicitly claiming
accomplishmentsin both researchand teaching duringthe first some degreeof objectivity,to be publiclyexposed as overstating
six years of employment,and some place the bar so high that a statisticalcase in favorof his or her
employeror cause.
seemingly superhumaneffortis required.If numbersof refereed Morecommonly,statisticiansfunctionas consultantsto those
publicationsandinstructorevaluationsarethe "keysto success," who must make decisions. We do this through careful and
can you affordto have real qualityas yourprimarygoal? Is there thoughtfuldesign of data collection mechanisms and analysis
enoughtime in six shortyearsto accomplishall thatis requiredif of assembleddata.But "carefuland thoughtful"here are words
you takeouradvice seriously?These arerealandhardquestions. that acknowledgea criticalfact: Statisticalanalysis of data can
How you use yourassistantprofessorshipis criticalto yourlong- only be performedwithin the context of selected assumptions,
term professional success, and it is obvious that you must take models, and/or prior distributions.A statisticalanalysis is ac-
your institution'sexpectationsinto account. But, we urge you tually the extractionof substantiveinformationfrom data and
as you face these issues to rememberthat one who spends an assumptions.And herein lies the rub, understoodwell by Dis-
assistantprofessorshipcutting corers is at best preparedto be raeliandothersskepticalof ourwork:Forgiven data,an analysis
an associateprofessorwho knows how to cut comers ... not one can usuallybe selected which will resultin "information"more
who has learnedhow to make a difference. favorableto the owner of the analysis than is objectively war-
Turningfinally to the area of professionalpractice,we note ranted.
that most of what has been writtenabout ethical guidelines for The only "cure"for this difficultyis statisticalpracticebased
statisticiansconcerns what is appropriatein public practice,in on assumptionsembodying an informed,balanced,and honest
lending aid to othersin the impartialandefficientcollection and representationof what is known. "Known,"not "wished for,"
analysis of their data. This is understandable,as (1) the disci- "desired,""convenient,"or even "other-than-worst-fears." This
pline's whole reasonto exist is ultimatelyto providesuch aid and has implicationsfor how statisticiansmustbe and act if they are
(2) this activity is both subtle and full of pitfalls. Both the ethi- to be both effective and ethical.
cal guidelines and public skepticismtypifiedin the "lies"quote * Statisticiansmust be knowledgeableabout the system un-
of Disraeli point to the fact that statistics can be used to form der
study. They should not presentthemselves as competentto
highly technical and even technically correctsupportfor state- analyzedatafrom systems aboutwhich they haveno substantive
ments which are in fact not true.We might hope this could hap- understanding.Real dataare not "context-free."
pen only when nonstatisticianspracticestatisticswithoutproper
technicalunderstandingof the subject.But statisticallies areby * On the other hand, statisticians must recognize and ac-
definitionimmoraluses of statisticalarguments,whethertechni- knowledgethe limitationsof their "subjectmatter"knowledge.
Data andvariationareubiquitous.Knowinghow to handlethem
cally corrector not, and stem from societal pressuresthataffect
statisticiansand nonstatisticiansalike. What then must you do can give you importantandeven uncommoninsightsin a variety
of contexts where you have limited subject mattercredentials.
in society to preservethe discipline's (and your own) integrity?
But the fact thatyou can make contributionsin league with ex-
First, recognize that a professional statistician should never in a variety of fields doesn't substitutefor credentialsin
behave like a courtroomlawyer. The practice of law is based perts
those fields. The credibilityof the statisticalprofessiondepends
on an adversarialmodel in which each lawyer representsan as-
upon its membersbeing scrupulousaboutwhat they know and
signed point of view-that which will yield the most positive what
outcome for his or her client. While the use of lies and inten- they don't know.Never forget thatyou are not the context
expert.
tionally misleading statementsis prohibitedin legal proceed-
ings, legal strategycertainly does involve the selective use of * Statisticiansmustgo out of theirway to see thattheiranaly-
evidence so as to presentthe truth(or some partof it) in the light ses allow interpretationsof the available data whichare tenable
most favorableto a particularpoint of view. But a key aspect of but not popular in the statistician'sorganization.This does not
this model of litigationis thatdecisions aremadeby an unbiased mean "be a troublemaker,"but it does mean that you should
authority(a judge or jury) based not on the case presentedby a carefullythinkthroughhow availabledatawould be interpreted
single side, but only afterargumentspresentedby all partiesare by those with all possible rationalpoints of view.
heard. * Statisticiansmustwritecompletereportsstatingthe results
Statisticiansusuallydo not operatein suchwell-controlledad- of theirentireinformedthoughtprocesses-including what they
versarialsystems. If you do work in this kind of arenayou must know,what they have assumed,what they have decided cannot
keep absolutely clear the distinctionbetween an objective ana- be assumed,and whatconclusionstenableassumptionssupport.
lyst and an advocate,and neverpurportto be (or thinkyourself) Our reportsshould contain "completeand sufficient"analyses
the firstwhen you arethe second. If you areemployedby an or- upon which any rationalpoint of view can be argued. If you
ganization(whetheron a permanentbasis or as a consultant)you come to the conclusion that one of the spectrumof sensible
are by definitionnot disinterestedin its well-being. And if you interpretationsis "best"in a particularapplication,makeit your
areworking"probono"for a cause you support,you arenot dis- goal to be absolutelytransparentaboutyour reasoning.People
TheAmericanStatistician,February2003, Vol.57, No. 1 25
shouldbe able to easily see your full set of model assumptions, is defined by the context of your work across the spectrumof
understandwhatmethodologyyou haveused to makeinferences rationalviewpoints. Youcannot do this unless you develop an
in thatmodel, andhaveaccess to diagnosticandrobustnesswork ethic of self-reliance,thoroughness,and hardwork.
you havedone. (This adviceis soundin general.But it is perhaps * You must understandfully what your assumptionssay and
especially relevantto explicitly Bayesian analyses.A consumer what they imply. You must not claim that the "usual assump-
of a posteriordistributionhas a moralrightto knowhow strongly
tions" are acceptable due to the robustnessof your technique
it dependsupon the prior.)Honest statisticalwork has nothing
unless you really understandthe implicationsand limits of this
to hide. It says what it says. It doesn't try to obscure points
assertionin the contextof yourapplication.And you must abso-
where alternativeconclusions are possible if otherassumptions
are made or different analysis paths are followed, and admits lutely neveruse any statisticalmethodwithoutrealizingthatyou
areimplicitly makingassumptions,and thatthe validityof your
wheremodel fits areshortof perfectionorconclusionsarehighly
resultscan neverbe greaterthanthatof the most questionableof
model-dependent. these. Youcannot do this unless you remaindedicatedto being
As a statistician,yourallegiancemustbe to findingthe conclu- thebest technicalstatisticianyou canpossibly be, understanding
sions which can be supportedby data and carefulassumptions. that this involvesknowingand understandingthe mathematical
Does this makethe businessof assumptionselection more diffi- argumentsas well as the computationaltechniquesbehindevery
cult thanit seemedin yourstatisticscoursework?Does it seem as tool you need.
thoughyou musttakethese issues morepersonallyandseriously Well there it is, more than enough advice to keep a young
thanourfavoritesemi-academicphrase"LetX1, X2,..., X, be statistician
busy for a career.We hope we don't soundtoo much
iid F ... ?"Does it soundlike yourformulationof these assump- like
myopic cranks,finding "seriousethical issues" to raise in
tions may have more to do with nonmathematicalvalues than even the most mundanecontexts.
Instead,we hope thatwe have
has been discussedin yourtextbooks?Yes, this andmoreis true.
arguedeffectively that ethical mattersare centralto our disci-
Ethical statisticalpracticerequiresthat you take responsibility
pline and providedsome insight into issues thatthis raises. We
for acquiring substantiveunderstanding,knowing all rational further
hope that you determineto take the matterof principle
points of view, and making decisions well beyond those based most seriously.
entirelyin data.
Carryon, Gentle Reader.
* You must examine yourself to see that you are not even
subconsciouslyleaning towardanalyseswhich you believe will [ReceivedApril 2002. RevisedNovember2002.]
"please the boss" or yourself, or simplify the problemunjusti-
fiably. This means that you cannot afford to think of yourself REFERENCES
as a datatechnicianor a hired gun. You must be secure enough
to simultaneouslyseparateany prior vested interest (yours or AmericanStatisticalAssociation(1999), "EthicalGuidelinesfor StatisticalPrac-
tice,"http://www.amstat.org/profession/ethicalstatistics.html
others') in the outcome from your analysis, and meld together W. E. (1986), "Principlesof ProfessionalStatisticalPractice,"in En-
Deming,
seamlesslyeverythingyou know aboutthe subjectmatterof your cyclopedia of StatisticalScience (vol. 7), eds. S. Kotz and N. Johnson,New
investigationwith the structureof yourstatisticalwork. Youcan- York:Wiley.
not do this unless you have strengthof characterand integrity. Des MoinesRegister(2001), "WesternIowaTechAmongNation'sFastestGrow-
ing Schools,"December 31, 2001, pp. B-1.
* You must not stop with the obvious or even the most likely Huff, D. (1954), How to Lie with Statistics,New York:Norton.
explanationof data, but find ways to examine them so that all InternationalStatisticalInstitute(1985), "Declarationon ProfessionalEthics,"
rationalviewpoints can be informed.This means that you will http://www.cbs.nl/isi/ethics.htm.
NationalAcademy of Sciences (1995), On Being a Scientist:ResponsibleCon-
workharderandlongerthananyonewho readsyourreportswill
duct in Research,Washington,DC: NationalAcademy Press. Also available
ever know. You will not rest until you know you understand online at http://www.nap.edu/books/0309051967/html/.
all the informationcontainedin the data, where "information" Twain,M. (1924), MarkTwain'sAutobiography,New York:Harper& Brothers.

26 General