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Pakistan-US Relations: Strategic Allies to Frenemies

Written by Mushahid Hussain Naqvi

Post 9/11 era in limelight- Ever since “Operation Enduring Freedom”

coercion and uncertainty revamped the dynamics of the Pak-US bilateral
ties from strategic allies to frenemies. Recent bilateral dialogue appraisal
endorsed resounding diplomatic triumph for Islamabad and its further
corroboration attributed with the accomplishment of “Afghan-led and
Afghan-owned peace process.”

In the midst of daunting regional geopolitical intrigue and last

straw of chalking out strategies for endgame in Afghanistan,
Washington again caught between two stools, perhaps counted the
cost of pitfalls and bellicose rhetoric towards Islamabad, thus
preceded rapprochement and shifted its strategically
confrontationist approach to re-engagement for a solution of
protracted Afghanistan conflict through political resolve.

Whilst Pakistan seized the occasion, came up with shrewd

responsive measures- cut the mustard as a key regional diplomatic
actor, maintaining its geostrategic relevance and exigencies of
security-cum-economic interests, decisively extended full
cooperation for peace restoration in Afghanistan by bringing
contending parties on the negotiation table. This precondition
allows stalled diplomatic relationship between two states to have a
breakthrough and Prime Minster Imran khan’s first visit
accompanied by cabinet delegate, and military leadership to the
United States furbished plausibility of converging interests and
extended cooperation.

Notably, rekindled stride further validated by an announcement

from The State Department to approve a conceivable Foreign
Military Sale (FMS) to Pakistan for Technical Security Team (TST),
in continuous support of the F-16 program for an expected cost of
$125 million.

Recent significant developments widely regarded as a linchpin to

reinstate the jeopardized architecture of regional security by the
proponents of perpetual peace and regional stability. The trip
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holds multifarious ramification to robust Imran khan’s political
stature and preservation of broader state’s interest. In terms of
domestic gains, the public diplomacy impacts to some extent
deviated the mounting pressure on government exerted by
opposition parties due to grisly wallowing economic junctures that
continue to hit a soft patch. Yet, worldwide acknowledgement
from supporters on print, social and electronic media forums and
least margin of criticism for the opposition in due course extended
public acceptance through edging considerable domestic political
mileage.

Adding further, successful diplomatic venture by historic

gathering of Pakistani diaspora at bustling capital arena boosted
the national image and also admonished policymakers in
Washington and political rivals back at home to introspect general
perception towards his leadership abilities -“His fidelity towards
good governance is undeniable however merely cricketing
expertise cannot endorse his calibre as factotum to run state
affairs.”

It is pertinent to highlight that pentagon’s interests and Pakistan’s

narrative vis-a-vis Afghanistan quagmire coincided, this timely
cohesion provided Imran khan favourable settings for desirable
negotiations whereas during President Bush and Obama era the
political leadership from Islamabad experienced intensely
perplexed situation due to divergent American interests, multiple
domestic constraints and hostile regional geopolitical
configurations.

The army chief’s meeting with United States Secretary of State

Michael Pompeo and the country’s top military leadership assisted
to revive the bilateral sustainable military coordination. It may
reopen the doors for the military to participate in the International
Military Education and Training program of the US, which
suspended after pronouncements of the US Af-Pak policy by
President Trump.

Likewise, the Probability of a resumption of coalition support

funds cannot be ruled out to facilitate Pakistan’s efforts of
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counterterrorism and improving fragile regional security
architecture. Unlike previous occasions, this time clear and
coherent narrative of civil-military leadership over how Pakistan
can capacitate the US to resolve collective regional security
challenges and recent contributions in Afghanistan peace process
subverted prior subtle policy, oriented through masses
resentments and muddling rhetoric.

In the context of India, Trump willingness to mediate in resolving

Kashmir issue with a particular assertion- “Modi had requested
him personally.” As expected, New Delhi caught off guard. An
embarrassing situation ensued whereas their foreign ministry
spokesman had to deny any request by Modi to Trump in this
regard. A quick rebuttal was interpreted as meaningful because
Trump was made to appear as a liar. It seems that even Pakistan
was not expecting a categorical response from the US President on
Kashmir which would entirely go in favour of Pakistan’s narrative.
Indian media were quick to lament. The whispers of the strategic
partnership between India and the US in diplomatic corridors
turned sour. Indian media initially downplayed Imran Khan’s
successful diplomatic and PR achievements but later on admitted
that Imran seemed confident and decisive in communicating his
point of view across Washington’s circles. Thus, another
diplomatic win for Pakistan left India red-faced and also raised
grave apprehensions for its lobbies in Washington to avert the
strategic catastrophe.

Over the past few years, the flaccidity of Pak-US relations

increased space to consequent strong Pak-China partnership. New
stride of constructive bilateral relationship and growing US-India
resentments raised the impetus for Pakistan to hold “strategic
Balance” between the China and US, therefore conventional
approach of shifting alliance with great powers can be appraised
through establishing independent parallel harmonious ties and to
seclude states policies mirror imaging interests of both powerful
contending actors in region.

Recent bilateral dialogue appraisal endorsed resounding

diplomatic triumph for Islamabad and its further corroboration
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attributed with the accomplishment of “Afghan-led and
Afghan-owned peace process.” Henceforth, both states must
converge interests for desirable endgame in Afghanistan to foster
corridors of sustainable bilateral cooperation, averting precedents
of uncertainty and embezzlement.

Whether Pak-US Ties Rejuvenated?

Written by Faisal Raza Khan

Pakistan-US relations were strained for more than two years but after
Pakistan’s active role in the Afghan peace process, white house invitation
to Pakistani leadership more likely be a reward than the actual realization
of Pakistan’s regional potential.

Afghanistan, yet again a point of convergence between Pakistan

and the United States, it cautiously seems that bilateral relations
return to normalcy but drum beating at this point in time, is not
justified as the US “do more” rhetoric soften a bit to achieve the
regional objective, not completely vanished.

Pak-US relations were strained for more than two years but after
Pakistan’s active role in the Afghan peace process, white house
invitation to Pakistani leadership more likely be a reward than the
actual realization of Pakistan’s regional potential. Although Prime
Minister Imran Khan’s three days “official working” trip to
Washington, signals a new beginning in bilateral relations in a
limited Trump administration’s time, a question remains that how
it would be translated in reality?

For some foreign policy experts, Pakistani leadership’s visit was at

least encouraging regarding a possible Afghan settlement,
futuristic probability of dialogues between Pakistan and India but
US President’s harsh tone on Iran could again be an unseen
debacle for Pakistan, and Pakistani leadership rightly conveyed
their concerns accordingly.

Pak-US bilateral ties: Both countries were in cold mode

especially after Donald’s Trump’s arrival in White House but after
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the announcement of US new Afghan policy in August 2017,
relations between the two got even worse. Who can ever ignore,
what Trump tweeted on January 1st, 2018 and criticized Pakistan
by labelling with “lies and deceit”, soon afterwards, the US$800
million, mostly reimbursements of coalition support fund (CSF),
was halted and never materialized.

Pakistan’s stance was that prime minister’s first-ever trip to

Washington, after assuming office, is to diminish the atmosphere
of mistrust and reset a new relationship, in which analysts believe,
Pakistan’s civil and military leadership got a marginal success but
overall, it looks more optics than reality. Two-side interaction will
help finally to settle down the dust of mistrust as both nations are
hopeful of resolving decades-long Afghan conflict while US
President’s “mediation or arbitration” offer on Jammu and
Kashmir issue, considered as an encouraging sign for a stable
region along with a boasting factor for bilateral relations.

Both promises shaping-up a joint mechanism to address social,

economic, trade, investments, defence and security-related matters,
if translates, would contribute bilaterally, especially for Pakistan,
facing severe economic meltdown. Unlike past, this time the US at
least indicates acceptance, what Pakistan is doing in most critical
regional circumstances particularly on the Afghan peace process,
against extremist groups inside the country under national action
plane (NAP), countering terrorism and policy of friendly and
peaceful neighbourhood with India and other countries.

Though, Imran-Trump meeting categorized as a considerable

success, but, Trump usual, embarrassing tactics were also an
indication of his non-seriousness towards Pakistan. When US
President said, “US was paying the US $ 1.3bn for many years,
Pakistan was not doing anything” and categorized it
as “subversive”. President Trump, again embarrassed Khan,
during his referral to Iran, when he said, “They [Iran] put [out] the
propaganda, They [Iran] put-out lies, I [Trump] don’t think
Pakistan would have been doing things like that [and, pointed
figure towards Prime Minister Imran Khan],” when PM Imran
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responds, “definitely not”. Then Trump again rectified and
said, “Pakistan never lies, but Iran does, unfortunately”.

Afghan issue: As core agenda, Pakistan and US, both had given
a tip-off that troubled Afghanistan would soon get settled, means a
ray of hope for all Afghan’s and the whole region is still alive.
During Pak-US talks, US-Afghan Taliban possible seal the deal and
Afghan Taliban’s all-inclusive Intra-Afghan dialogue for a
peaceful negotiated settlement was discussed in full-spectrum and
first-ever time, with clear vision. The US has also acknowledged,
Pakistan’s role at the highest level, as President Trump’s said
that “I really believe they [Pakistan] have a power that other
nations [including India] don’t have with respect to Afghanistan”.

At the same time, it could be Pakistan’s delicate test because

Taliban are not solely in the hands of Pakistan, they have their
own strong will, how they will take things in the larger interests of
their own country, which is facing destruction since the ’80s.
Pakistan can only use its slight leverage, what it has and if nothing
happened according to the envisaged plan, things would have
been different, the fall-out could affect adversely.

It’s not yet clear that how, Pakistan and US will make most
complex Afghan peace possible, in a country, where beside
Afghan-Taliban, exists several groups, some under Russian and
Iranian influence, under Indian impact, pro-Pakistan and
pro-Afghan-Taliban, some likes Pakistan but not Afghan-Taliban
and some are also the independent voices. It’s another disturbing
aspect to address that how an inactive, less-equipped and
fragmented, Afghan civil and military bureaucracy willfully able
to handle, a post-withdrawal situation?

Besides Pakistan, another bitter aspect is that there is no serious

move seen from Washington to take neighbouring countries in
confidence and take them along. Singling-out neighbouring
regional countries [including Iran] would negatively impact
regional peace, particularly, it will doubt, any possible Afghan
deal as Pakistan keeps on stressing that a long-lasting peace and
sustained stability in Afghanistan is a shared responsibility.
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During joint media interaction with Pakistani premier, US
President’s arrogant remarks that, “if he [Trump] wanted to,
Afghanistan would be wiped off the face of the earth – it would be
done over, literally in 10 days” then he said, in a week’s time,
given reference of dropping on mother of all bombs (MOAB), then
again added, “don’t want to kill 10 million people”, and that, we
acted like a policeman, not soldier, also sparked doubts among
Afghans primarily Afghan-Taliban as well, that US really serious
in having peace in Afghanistan?

Afghan-Taliban’s statement, soon after Trump’s presser, termed it

as irresponsible and strongly condemned, while referred to the
bitter historical fact that Genghis Khan, British Empire and the
former Soviet Union, all were “wiped off the face of the earth but
Afghan nation proudly endured”, and called, Afghanistan,
the “Graveyard of Empires” but at the same time, encouragingly
supported the “peaceful and rational solution” to the Afghan
conflict.

Kashmir: After a long-time ever, as an encouraging sign, US has

responded at least to the core concerns in turbulent South Asia,
which is not the part of the US South Asia policy, the
long-standing dispute of Jammu and Kashmir.

Donald Trump, in his presser, at Oval Office said, “I [Trump] was

with [Indian] PM Modi two weeks ago (not clear but might be,
was referring to his meeting in Japan during G-20 summit), we
were talking about this subject [Kashmir] and he [Indian PM
Narendra Modi] actually said, [would] you [Trump] like to be a
mediator or arbitrator, I [Trump] said where? [Modi] said,
Kashmir”.

But on the contrary, Trump was ignorant of the fact that since
when Kashmir issue exists, when he said, “I [Trump] was
surprised that how long its [Kashmir conflict] going on, [PM Imran,
replied] “70 years”, then [Trump said], “they [India] like to see it
resolved, you [Pakistan] like to see it resolved, ‘if’, I [Trump] can
help, I would love to be a mediator”.
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US President has also commented on the inability of two countries
to resolve the seven decades-long Kashmir issue, which was
actually meant, to resolve it bilaterally but for many, it’s a hopeful
aspect that the US has accepted ‘Kashmir’ as the problem and
asked for “arbitration or mediation”.

India’s rejection to US mediation, denial of “Modi’s request” was

an expected response after Trump’s statement but cutting the long
debate short, a question arises, whether Trump administration
actually want peace in South Asia, intended to resolve the
outstanding issue of Kashmir? Yes, US has the influence, all the
power to mediate and resolve the issue but US President’s
perpetual cycles of U-Turns casting lots of doubts.

On the other hand, Pakistan’s own peace initiative like Kartarpur

Corridor, expected future facilitation for Hindu and Buddhist
pilgrims, possible opening of East-West Corridors, normalization
of trade, people to people interactions, could pave the way for a
viable solution of Kashmir conflict.

Keeping in view the Afghan situation and US curiosity to have a

respectful exit along with something to present before American
public during 2020 US Presidential elections, Trump
administration could exert more pressure on Pakistan but, in
return, might pressurise India as well, to enter in dialogue with
Pakistan.

Many experts believe, at least, Pak-US engagements at high level

would build upon, what conceived, discussed and elaborated
during the leadership and delegation-level engagements on July
22nd, 2019 at White House but again, questions are still haunting
and doubts are still there, what would be the ultimate future of
Pak-US relations, even (with if’s and but’s) after having a
broad-ranged possible, Afghan peace agreement?
July 31, 2019