El Estado de Los tropicosbProject-Overview - Final1 PDF

Project Overview
1. Introduction
More than 2000 years ago, Aristotle described the world as being divided into three
zones – the Frigid Zone, the Temperate Zone and the Torrid Zone. He deemed the
Torrid Zone to be too hot and the Frigid Zone too cold for civilised habitation. He wrote
that it is only in the temperate zone where humans could productively live and work.
This ancient view of the world was amplified by other classical writers and thinkers.
Pliny the Elder wrote of the Torrid Zone as a place of great horrors. Fifteenth century
Indian Geographers wrote of the tropics as a place like that between the living and
the dead. Even into the 19th and early 20th centuries, the tropics were considered a
dangerous place. As a rare counterpoint to these negative views, some literally
painted the tropics as a paradise and the prevailing Iberian view was that the newly
discovered tropics of the New World represented the completion of the world,
revealing elements lost when humanity was cast out from the Garden of Eden. With
very few exceptions, the idea of the tropics as a place of pestilence has dominated
European thought and action. Indeed, the temperate world’s interpretation of the
tropics has lurched from pestilence to paradise, but rarely has the zone been taken
on in its own terms.
Since Aristotle’s simple classification, other ways of viewing the world have waxed and
waned. North/south was an early axis, a focus of attention during early European
expansion, east/west as expansion accelerated and political and economic systems
developed, first world/third world as we became aware of the economic, social and
political inequality existing in different places and, in the post-WWII environment, the
focus has been on OECD/non-OECD or developing/developed countries dichotomies.
Each of these ways of viewing the world, of viewing ourselves, has been important in
its time and place. But even as they have each enabled particular insights and
understandings, they have also papered over a fundamental Aristotelian insight.
Aristotle’s joined-up, lateral conception of the world, conceiving of the world as
comprising geographic and climatic zones, zones that might be expected to share
common issues and challenges, and feature other issues that are unique to that
zone, has been all but lost.
While others might seek to explore the Temperate Zone, and the issues of the Frigid
Zone are being examined in the work of researchers focusing on the idea of the
Frigid north, the Torrid Zone – the tropics – is ripe for attention. It is time to
understand comprehensively the Torrid Zone, to investigate the tropics on its own
terms, free from historical dystopia.
Indeed, it is long overdue. This has become a most, perhaps the most, critical zone
of the world.
The United Nations estimates that the tropics currently accounts for 40% of the
world’s population and predicts that by 2050 approximately 50% of the world’s
population will live in the region. It is the home to an estimated 80% of the world's
biodiversity, a significant proportion of which is under threat. Indeed, climate change
is likely to hit the Torrid Zone very hard as many of its species are thermal specialists
and do not tolerate changes in climate as well as species more accustomed to a
wider range of climatic conditions.
The 144 nations and territories that are either fully or partly in the Torrid Zone
produce around 20% of world GDP and many continue to experience above world
average growth in GDP.
The people of the tropics face some of the most critical issues of our time, including
the impact of climate change (rising sea levels, declining crop yields, extinction of
vulnerable species); poor health outcomes (more than one billion people suffer from
neglected tropical diseases, unacceptable levels of infant mortality and reduced life
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expectancy); extreme poverty; poor educational outcomes; environmental
degradation; and political and economic instability in some countries.
For universities and research institutions located in the tropics, this is our place, and
many would express a clear responsibility to work with and for the people of the
tropics, to bring to bear the power of our understanding, science and innovation on
the issues of the Torrid Zone, to create a brighter future for the tropics and its
people, world-wide. This is the main rationale for producing this Report.
The key objective of the Report is to enable a better understanding of the tropical
world, the key challenges of the Zone as well as the opportunities it provides. It is time
to take seriously this lateral, horizontal view of the world, to focus on the Torrid Zone,
revealing the common and uncommon issues of the tropical world, finally recognising it
as a major, geo-political region demanding the attention of world leaders.
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2. The Report – State of the Tropics
As a major contribution to this endeavour the State of the Tropics report will consider
the question: Is life in the tropics getting better?
Progress can be defined as an increase in the sustainable and equitable well-being of
a society (Hall et al 2010). In this context progress is multidimensional and typically
includes economic, social and environmental factors along with other areas that
people see as important to life (for example, culture or the quality of governance).
Given these multiple dimensions, answers to the fundamental question are likely to
be positive for some aspects and negative for others. Furthermore, people hold
different values and what is viewed as progress by some will be seen as regress by
others. That is, the concept of progress is influenced by an individual’s perspective.
The Report will also identify major challenges for the Zone, recognising that it is
important the focus is not too negative, and includes a discussion of opportunities.
The Report will be a dispassionate, statistical analysis of a range of statistical
indicators that will reveal trends and areas where progress is being made or lost.
Data will be gathered from existing collections from authoritative sources and there
will be no new data collection. An indicators data base will be developed and made
available publicly, with annual data updates.
For completeness the Report will examine issues that bind the different parts of the
Zone together. Geography is clearly one element in common, and another is climate.
Consequently, climate and climate change and its economic, social and
environmental impacts will be examined.
A five yearly State of the Tropics report will be published, and will be supplemented
by an annual State of the Tropics paper focusing on a key issue in the tropical world.
The following sections detail the recommended project outline, noting that comments
on the approach are welcome.
2.1 Regionalising the Torrid Zone
Most data are reported on a national basis, and nations will be the basis for regional
aggregations. Except for Northern Africa and Middle East region, the eight regions
follow traditional groupings.
The Torrid Zone is quite heterogeneous. To aid with analysis and reporting it makes
sense to develop groupings that ideally have some degree of commonality or internal
homogeneity. There are a number of ways that this could be undertaken, including
by climate (wet/ dry/ temperate tropics) and by national borders.
As the majority of data are reported on a nation basis it makes sense that nations
are the basis of regional aggregations. The regional groupings are:
• Central and Southern Africa;
• Northern Africa and Middle East;
• Caribbean;
• Central America;
• South America;
• Oceania;
• South East Asia (including China); and
• South Asia.
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Annex A details the countries proposed for each region. Except for Northern Africa
and Middle East the regions follow traditional groupings. Northern Africa and Middle
East is chosen as a region to capture the dry tropical zone in that part of the world.
Analysis in the Report will focus on comparisons of regions rather than countries.
Discussion of country data can be undertaken to explain regional differences if one or
two countries are identified as the drivers of regional outcomes. However, country
data will not be used for comparisons between countries.
2.2 Nations and territories to include
A two stage process is undertaken to assess which nations are to be reported – a

population-based stage and a data availability stage. For large countries that straddle
the Torrid Zone, analysis and reporting will be for sub-national provinces primarily in
the Torrid Zone. The Report will cover 109 of the 144 nations in the Torrid Zone.
In assessing which nations and territories should be included in the Report two
processes are applied. The first uses a population-based decision tool to assess
whether nations partially in the Torrid Zone should be included in the Report, and the
second reviews data availability to assess whether sufficient data are available to
warrant a nation’s inclusion in the Report.
The following sections provide more detail around these issues.
2.2.1 Population based assessment
The geographic area that is the Torrid Zone is clearly defined and is the region
between the Tropics of Cancer and Capricorn. However, national borders do not
neatly align with the Torrid Zone and there are a number of nations and territories
that straddle the zone.
The following practical approach has been applied to select nations and territories to
be included in the Report:
• Nations that are wholly within the Torrid Zone are included;
• Nations partially within the Zone are included if:
o The majority of the population (i.e. more than 50%) lives in the Torrid Zone;
or
o The proportion of the population living in the Torrid Zone is 5% or more of
the region’s population living in the Torrid Zone.
Using this decision tool 134 nations and territories are assessed as being in the
Torrid Zone. Annex A provides a breakdown of the population-based assessment for
each nation/ territory (see column E).
2.2.2 Data based assessment
As the report will be based on readily available and consistent datasets across a
broad range of indicators, data availability is a factor influencing which nations and
territories are reported.
It is recommended that, of the 134 nations and territories, 24 are excluded from the
report based on data availability. The majority are territories of larger nations for
which data are not readily reported at the territory level. In some cases territory
level data are available, but not across the broad range of indicators to be reported.
Many of the excluded nations and territories are in the Caribbean and Oceania
regions. Table 2.1 reports, by region, the nations/ territories that are excluded based
on data availability, and the proportion of the regional population that these nations/
territories represent.
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Table 2.1: Nations/ Territories Excluded Based on Data Availability
Region/ Nation/ Territory Population (‘000) % of Regional Population
Central & Southern Africa 1,050.2 0.15%
Mayotte (France) 204.1 0.03%
Reunion (France) 846.1 0.12%
Caribbean 1,527.3 3.70%
Anguilla (United Kingdom) 15.4 0.04%
Aruba (Netherlands) 107.5 0.26%
British Virgin Islands (United Kingdom) 23.2 0.06%
Cayman Islands (United Kingdom) 56.2 0.14%
Grenada 104.5 0.25%
Guadeloupe (France) 460.7 1.12%
Martinique (France) 405.8 0.98%
Montserrat (United Kingdom) 5.9 0.01%
Netherlands Antilles (Netherlands) 200.7 0.49%
Turks & Caicos Islands (United Kingdom) 38.4 0.09%
United States Virgin Islands (United States) 109.1 0.26%
Oceania 358.0 2.83%
American Samoa (United States) 68.4 0.54%
Cook Islands 20.3 0.16%
Guam (United States) 179.9 1.43%
Midway Islands (United States) 0.0 0.00%
Nauru 10.3 0.08%
Niue 1.5 0.01%
Northern Mariana Islands (United States) 60.9 0.48%
Tokelau 1.1 0.01%
Wake Island (United States) n.a. n.a.
Wallis & Futuna Islands (France) 13.6 0.11%
South America 231.2 0.08%
French Guiana (France) 231.2 0.08%
TOTAL 3,166.7
% OF TORRID ZONE POPULATION 0.11%
2.2.3 Reporting at the sub-national level
For most indicators the report will use data that are only available at the national level.
For larger nations that straddle the Torrid Zone it may be possible to obtain sub-
national, provincial data.
For nations partially in the Torrid Zone that are included in the report based on the
population decision tool it is proposed that:
• Where more than 90% of the population lives in the Torrid Zone and the nation
represents more than 5% of the regional population, the entire nation will be
reported (that is, data will not be reported at the sub-national level); and
• Where the population in the Torrid Zone is less than 90% and the nation
represents more than 5% of the regional population, attempts will be made to
source reliable and consistent sub-national data for reporting purposes.
Using this decision tool Australia, Bangladesh, Brazil, China, India, Mexico, Saudi
Arabia and the United States (Hawaii) will be reported at the sub-national level. For
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these countries, the sub-national provinces for which data will be sourced are
reported in Table A2 of Annex A.
Where sub-national data are not readily available transparent methodologies will be
developed to generate estimates, and the methodologies detailed in the metadata.
2.3 Conceptual framework for the Report
The conceptual framework underpins all analysis and reporting. The Report’s
framework is based on that of the OECD’s Societal Progress Indicators, and recognises
the ecosystem and human system, their key constituent elements and linkages
between the various components of the framework.
The Report’s conceptual framework underpins how information is presented and the
indicators which are reported. The conceptual framework also creates the logical
structure that shows how dimensions relate to each other (Hall et al 2010). The
framework proposed for the State of the Tropics report is shown at Annex B.
The conceptual framework’s structure comprises:
• Systems (the eco and human systems);
• Domains (of the eco and human systems);
• Dimensions (within the human domain); and
• Indicators.
The framework’s genesis is the OECD’s Societal Progress Indicators framework which
identifies two key systems essential to assess progress and sustainability, namely:
• The ecosystem; and
• The human system.
Relative to the OECD model the State of the Tropics framework places greater
emphasis on the ecosystem, which it recognises as providing services that underpin all
life on Earth. This is represented as the human system being a subset of the
ecosystem, and implicitly recognises that ecosystem ‘health’ is essential to sustainable
health, development and progress in the human system.
In the conceptual framework the ecosystem’s domains are:
• Atmosphere;
• Land;
• Inland Water;
• Oceans; and
• Biodiversity.
These domains have the capacity to deliver services to the human system for a broad
range of economic, social and aesthetic purposes and, inter alia, it is the state of the
ecosystem domains that deliver important economic and social benefits, while it is the
‘flows’ that will determine the rate at which the state of the ecosystem is changing.
In the conceptual framework the human system’s domains are:
• Society;
• Economy; and
• Governance.
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These domains are recognised as critical in assessing societal progress. The human
system’s domains are further defined by dimensions, and indicators are identified to
assess progress in each dimension.
The indicators allow quantitative assessment of the domains and dimensions. It is
through analysis of the indicators that the question of whether ‘life in the tropics is
getting better’ is assessed.
Changes in many of the indicators will be influenced by interactions between the eco
and human systems. The framework recognises linkages between the two systems,
and that within each linkage there can be both positive and negative impacts. A useful
way to conceptualise the linkages is to consider them as being associated with:
• Ecosystem services (to the human system) – being the net impact of:
o ‘Ecosystem assets’, representing positive ecosystem inputs to the human
system (e.g. land for growing of crops, natural resources for extraction,
marine and inland waters, atmosphere etc); and
o ‘Ecosystem liabilities’, representing negative ecosystem inputs to the human
system (e.g. earthquakes, cyclones, flood/drought etc).
• Human system impacts (on the ecosystem) – being the net impact of:
o ‘Human system pressures’, representing human-induced impacts that
typically degrade the ecosystem; and
o ‘Human system responses’, representing human activities aimed at improving
the health and wellbeing of the ecosystem.
Through these linkages the state of ecosystem services is affected by human system
activity and vice versa. For example, while the stock of land, water, atmosphere and
biodiversity is relatively constant, impacts from the human system contribute to
changing their state (e.g. reduced biodiversity or increased pollution), which can
subsequently impact on human system outcomes.
Sustainability can also be examined by assessing both stocks and flows.
2.4 Indicators to measure ‘progress’
The conceptual framework and data availability are used to guide indicator selection.
Where feasible a headline indicator will be reported. The headline indicator is a
summary indicator of the domain/ dimension being considered and should have good
directional attributes (i.e. to show progress or regress). Supplementary indicators are
used to ensure informed and balanced analysis.
Measuring the concept of “whether life is getting better” is not straight forward. In
reality, it is by considering a range of concepts and analysing proxy indicators that
we can obtain an understanding of what is happening. The concept of ‘progress’ is
key among them, and includes notions such as wellbeing, welfare, quality of life,
sustainability and happiness (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2006). It is not feasible
to provide a tight definition of what constitutes ‘life getting better’ and it is not
proposed that the State of the Tropics report provides such a definition.
An important goal of the State of the Tropics report is to provide a statistical basis to
assess whether, in the eyes of the reader, ‘life in the tropics is getting better’.
Examples of the types of questions the chosen indicators will address are reported in
Annex C.
Related to the question of whether life is getting better are questions regarding
“What are the main challenges?” and “What are the opportunities?”.
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Box 2.1: Criteria for selecting indicators
The intention is for the State of the Tropics report to be easily understood by non-
expert readers in terms of both subject matter and statistical methods. As such,
the choice of indicators needs to balance considerations of approachability,
technical precision, and the availability and quality of data.
Headline indicators
Headline indicators are chosen to assess dimensions of progress, not to explain
the underlying causes of change. The indicators are about the 'whethers' rather
than the 'whys'. A good headline indicator should:
• Be relevant to the domain or dimension of progress;
• Focus on outcomes where possible, rather than on the inputs or processes used
to produce outcomes;
• Have good directional qualities to signal progress or regress (at least when the
indicator is considered alone, with all other dimensions of progress kept equal);
• Be supported by good quality time series data;
• Have data for the majority of countries in the Torrid Zone;
• Be sensitive to changes in underlying factors captured by the measure of progress;
• Be summary in nature; and
• Be intelligible and easily interpreted by the general reader.
Supplementary indicators
Supplementary indicators are intended to provide additional information to
support the headline indicator. Much the same criteria are applied as for headline
indicators, but with less emphasis on the need to show unambiguously good and
bad directions of movement or have an outcome focus.
Based on information in Australian Bureau of Statistics’ Measures of Australia’s Progress, 2006.
These are all important questions with many aspects, and there are a range of sub-
questions that need to be considered in order to answer them. Even then, some
people will give higher priority to some aspects of progress than others.
Table 2.2 outlines the indicators to be reported. In selecting the indicators an
assessment of data availability was undertaken. It should be noted the range of
indicators may need to be modified during development of the Report.
The approach to reporting indicators is to identify, where feasible, a headline indicator
and a range of supplementary indicators for each domain and dimension. An overview
of the characteristics of good headline and supplementary indicators is in Box 2.1.
The work to date shows it is difficult to find headline indicators to adequately
describe each domain and dimension, and the linkages between the eco and human
systems. The approach to be taken will use the five ecosystem domains –
atmosphere, land, water, oceans and biodiversity – and consider the linkages
between each of them and the human system.
It is not only progress per se that is important but the sustainability of progress. This
implies that stocks as well as flows should be examined where feasible.
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Table 2.2: Proposed Indicators
System Domain Dimension Indicator Indicator Type Break-out Box Options
Ecosystem Atmosphere Carbon dioxide emissions Headline • Case studies of impacts of global warming in tropics
Energy supply from fossil fuels Supplementary • Case study reviewing developments in the source of energy
Energy use per unit of GDP Supplementary • Case study of GDP growth and demand for motor vehicles
Air pollution Nil • Tropical cities relative to other cities
• Health impacts of air pollution (indoor and outdoor)
Land Land degradation Headline • Case study
Agricultural land Supplementary • Analysis of land productivity
Inland Water Water quality (organic pollutants) Headline
Renewable water resources Supplementary • Discuss water in terms of food and human security
Oceans Fish production – wild marine catch Supplementary • Case studies of:
o Overfishing; and/or
o International Programme on the State of the Ocean
Fish production – aquaculture Supplementary
Marine protected areas Supplementary • Case study of human impacts on the Great Barrier Reef
Biodiversity Extent of primary forests Headline • Discuss extent of, and risks to, biodiversity in the Tropics
Terrestrial & marine protected areas Supplementary • Threatened mammals as a case study/ break out box
Human System Society Poverty Population below $1.25/day Headline
Undernourished population Supplementary • Distribution of income case study/ break out box
Urbanisation Urban population Headline
Slum population Supplementary
Health Life expectancy Headline
Maternal mortality Supplementary
Under-five mortality Supplementary
Notified cases of malaria (rate) Supplementary • Case study of changing geographic range of vector borne
Notified cases of dengue (rate) Supplementary diseases
Incidence of tuberculosis (rate) Supplementary

HIV incidence rate Supplementary
Lifestyle disease – obesity Supplementary • Discuss emerging lifestyle diseases, including obesity
Education Mean years of schooling of adults Headline • Discuss positive outcomes associated with education
Youth literacy Supplementary • Discuss children attending primary school
Adult literacy Supplementary • Tertiary education – investment in future economic growth
Work Unemployment rate Headline • Value of work to individuals and society
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System Domain Dimension Indicator Indicator Type Break-out Box Options
Economy Economic Output GDP per capita Headline • Source of growth by industry (by region)
Gross private capital formation Supplementary
International Trade & Exports of goods and services (% of GDP) Headline • Analysis of type of exports, and growth
Investment
Imports of goods and services (% of GDP) Supplementary
Foreign direct investment, net inflows Supplementary
Science & Technology Research and development (% of GDP) Headline
Scientific & technical journal articles Supplementary
Science & technology tertiary graduates Supplementary • Graduates in science, technology and engineering courses
Government Public sector debt service burden Headline
Governance Human Security Refugees Headline • Discuss ‘human security’ from economic/ environmental
perspective (e.g. Oceania, Bangladesh)
Crime & Corruption Homicide rate Headline
Corruption Headline
Gender Equality Ratio of female to male adults with at least Headline
secondary education
Women in national parliament Supplementary
Infrastructure Gross capital formation Headline
Access to improved water source Supplementary Discussion of health benefits of improved water and sanitation
Access to improved sanitation Supplementary infrastructure
Air transport passengers Supplementary

Communication Mobile phone subscriptions Headline
Fixed broadband internet subscribers Supplementary
Internet users Supplementary
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An overview of the rationale for including each indicator is detailed in Annex D.
Break-out boxes will provide options to supplement data-driven analysis and reporting,
and could cover case studies and include relevant and useful information. For example,
the International Leadership Group identified it would be desirable to identify
accessibility and affordability indicators for a range of social services and to report on
the speed and capacity of ICT services in addition to the number of connections. In the
absence of data these issues could be examined in the break-out box format.
Suggested break-out box topics are reported in Table 2.2, but the reality is that
topics will be informed by research and analysis as it is undertaken. Suggestions for
break-out box topics are welcomed.
As a general rule 20 years of data are sought. Nonetheless, for some indicators (e.g.
life expectancy) longer times series are available, while for others it will not, and/or
will not be available at annual intervals.
2.5 Data sources
Data will primarily be sourced from international data agencies, and supplemented with
nationally-sourced data as required. A data base will be created and be publicly
available.
The State of the Tropics project will rely on existing data sources. Given the multi-
national nature of the indicators key data sources will be:
• The World Bank’s World Development Indictors (WDI) data base, which covers
420 indicators from 209 countries (although the country coverage of some
indicators is not complete); and
• The United Nation Statistics Division’s Millennium Indicators (MDIs) Database,
which covers the 48 MDIs and some supplementary indicators.
Other global and national data bases will be used as necessary. As the data will be
sourced from public data bases and attributed accordingly, no copyright issues are
envisaged.
Global data bases are normally hosted by international agencies. For example, the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) has a data base on macroeconomic statistics,
United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO) has
several data bases on education statistics, United Nations Food and Agricultural
Organisation (FAO) has data bases on agriculture and land use, and United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has data bases on greenhouse
gas emissions. However, the core data sets used for the Report will be those hosted
by the World Bank and United Nations, which typically rely on data from specialist
organisations. Data bases held by organisations such as Transparency International
can also be used as required.
There are also regional data bases that might be useful for filling gaps in the global
data bases. For example, the South Pacific Community has a data base for Pacific
countries. For various reasons not all these data are included in World Bank and
United Nations data bases.
As a rule of thumb national data bases will only be used to inform decision making
for those large countries for which sub-national data are sought (see Section 2.2.3).
Where there are inconsistencies between the global and national data bases, data on
global data bases will be used to develop national estimates, but national data will be
used to allocate between sub-national provinces.
In developing the report relevant metadata will be documented. This will include the
definition of the indicator, the data source, collection methodology, information on
quality and the assumptions made in preparing the Report.
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The data base underlying the State of the Tropics report will be relatively small and
straight-forward – 𝑥 indicators by y countries by t years. A discrete and publicly
available State of the Tropics data base will be developed to complement the Report.
The data base will be compiled in preparing the Report. The supporting metadata will
be made available publicly.
The exact form of the user interface will be subject to further investigation, but it is
expected that access will be conditional on acknowledging a modest range of data
limitation conditions.
It should be recognised that not all countries will accept the validity of data sources
used in the Report. For example, some World Bank data are based on imputations
and assumptions which are not well documented. For many indicators there is no
practical alternative to using World Bank data but this weakness will be recognised in
notes associated with the publication. This issue may not be a significant concern for
the Report as the focus will be on analysing regional aggregations, rather than
reporting for individual countries.
2.6 Design of the Report
The Report’s structure will be guided by the conceptual framework. It will also
include a number of essays on specific issues of interest to nations in the Torrid
Zone.
Measures of Australia’s Progress (MAP) and Global Environment Outlook 4 (GEO4)

provide examples for presentation of the State of the Tropics report. The broad
structure of the report is proposed is as follows:
1. Objective and other introductory material.
2. Description of “What is the Torrid Zone?”, providing context for subsequent
analysis and reporting. (e.g. countries, population, economy, climate,
biodiversity, health issues etc).
3. Information about purpose, concepts, framework and other material to assist the
reader.
4. The ecosystem – land, inland water, oceans, atmosphere and biodiversity – and
interactions with the human system.
5. The human system – society, economy and governance.
6. The ecosystem and the human system – major challenges and opportunities in
the Torrid Zone.
7. Essays on specific topics (e.g. the impact of climate change on the eco and
human systems).
8. Data sources and knowledge gaps.
Within the ecosystem and human system chapters there will be analysis and
discussion based on the indicators, as well as discussion of other relevant and topical
issues.
For each domain/ dimension there will be discussion (3-6 pages) explaining why it is
important, a graphical presentation and commentary on trends and driving forces,
regional comparisons, and links to other themes, especially with the ecosystem.
A mock-up of four domains/ dimensions will be developed for review by the
International Leadership Group. It is recommended that the themes be biodiversity,
health, economic output and gender equality. It is expected that this report will be
ready for distribution in early 2012.
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The impact of climate change on the tropical region will be one essay topic. Topics for
other essays are not yet decided, and will be identified well in advance of the
Report’s production. Suggestions for possible essay topics are welcomed.
2.7 Focus of analysis
The focus of analysis will be at the regional level, not the national level.
The focus of the analysis in the Report will be on the Torrid Zone as a whole (i.e.
What are the trends in the Torrid Zone? Are there particular sustainability issues?). It
is inevitable that there will be some regional differences and these will be of interest.
These differences could be highlighted through the commentary on the indicators.
However, comparisons between countries will not be made, and individual countries
will only be mentioned where they have a significant influence on the trends in the
Torrid Zone or a region.
Consideration can also be given to reporting data in non-national terms (e.g.
wet/dry/desert tropics, small island countries, etc) where there are significant
differences for particular indicators.
Some comparisons between the Torrid Zone and other Zones might be useful and will
be considered.
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References
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02.htm
15
Annex A – Countries in the Torrid Zone
Table A1 reports the 144 nations/ territories identified in the Torrid Zone and estimates, for each nation/ territory, the population living in the
Torrid Zone (column B) and, applying the population based decision tool (see Section 2.2.1) and data availability review (see Section 2.2.2)
assesses whether the nation/ territory should be included in the Report (see columns E and F). The recommendation of the assessment is
reported in column G.
Table A1: Nations/ Territories in the Torrid Zone

Population Population in % of National % of Regional Treatment, Treatment, Based Inclusion
(2010) Torrid Zone Population Population in Based on on Data in Report
('000) the Torrid Zone Population Availability
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G)
Central and Southern Africa – 42 nations/territories, 36 included in the report
Algeria* 35,468.2 286.4 0.8% 0.0%  
Angola 19,081.9 19,081.9 100.0% 2.8%  
Benin 8,849.9 8,849.9 100.0% 1.3%  
Botswana* 2,006.9 1,033.1 51.5% 0.2%  
Burkina Faso 16,468.7 16,468.7 100.0% 2.4%  
Burundi 8,382.8 8,382.8 100.0% 1.2%  
Cameroon 19,598.9 19,598.9 100.0% 2.9%  
Cape Verde 496.0 496.0 100.0% 0.1%  
Central African Republic 4,401.1 4,401.1 100.0% 0.6%  
Comoros 734.8 734.8 100.0% 0.1%  
Congo, Democratic Republic of 65,965.8 65,965.8 100.0% 9.7%  
Congo, Republic 4,042.9 4,042.9 100.0% 0.6%  
Cote d'Ivoire 19,737.8 19,737.8 100.0% 2.9%  
Egypt* 81,121.1 556.3 0.7% 0.1%  
Equatorial Guinea 700.4 700.4 100.0% 0.1%  
Ethiopia 82,949.5 82,949.5 100.0% 12.2%  
Gabon 1,505.5 1,505.5 100.0% 0.2%  
Gambia 1,728.4 1,728.4 100.0% 0.3%  
Ghana 24,391.8 24,391.8 100.0% 3.6%  
16
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G)
Guinea 9,981.6 9,981.6 100.0% 1.5%  
Guinea-Bissau 1,515.2 1,515.2 100.0% 0.2%  
Kenya 40,512.7 40,512.7 100.0% 5.9%  
Liberia 3,994.1 3,994.1 100.0% 0.6%  
Libya* 6,355.1 31.7 0.5% 0.0%  
Madagascar* 20,713.8 19,019.9 91.8% 2.8%  
Malawi 14,900.8 14,900.8 100.0% 2.2%  
Mauritius 1,299.2 1,299.2 100.0% 0.2%  
Mayotte (France) 204.1 204.1 100.0% 0.0%   
Mozambique* 23,390.8 18,776.5 80.3% 2.8%  
Namibia* 2,283.3 1,832.9 80.3% 0.3%  
Nigeria 158,423.2 158,423.2 100.0% 23.3%  
Reunion (France) 846.1 846.1 100.0% 0.1%   
Rwanda 10,624.0 10,624.0 100.0% 1.6%  
Sao Tome & Principe 165.4 165.4 100.0% 0.0%  
Seychelles 86.5 86.5 100.0% 0.0%  
Sierra Leone 5,867.5 5,867.5 100.0% 0.9%  
South Africa* 50,132.8 2,078.0 4.1% 0.3%  
Tanzania 44,841.2 44,841.2 100.0% 6.6%  
Togo 6,027.8 6,027.8 100.0% 0.9%  
Uganda 33,424.7 33,424.7 100.0% 4.9%  
Zambia 13,088.6 13,088.6 100.0% 1.9%  
Zimbabwe 12,571.5 12,571.5 100.0% 1.8%  
Regional Population 858,882.4 681,025.2 100.0% 0.15%
17
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G)
Northern Africa and Middle East - 14 nations/territories, 12 included in the report
Djibouti 888.7 888.7 100.0% 0.6%  
Chad 11,227.2 11,227.2 100.0% 7.3%  
Eritrea 5,253.7 5,253.7 100.0% 3.4%  
Mali* 15,369.8 15,356.6 99.9% 10.0%  
Mauritania* 3,459.8 3,435.5 99.3% 2.2%  
Niger 15,512.0 15,512.0 100.0% 10.1%  
Oman* 2,782.4 606.0 21.8% 0.4%  
Saudi Arabia*# 27,448.1 11,339.1 41.3% 7.4%  
Senegal 12,433.7 12,433.7 100.0% 8.1%  
Somalia 9,330.9 9,330.9 100.0% 6.1%  
South Sudan 8,258.7 9,188.3 100.0% 6.0%  
Sudan 35,293.2 34,363.6 100.0% 22.4%  
United Arab Emirates* 7,511.7 365.1 4.9% 0.2%  
Yemen 24,052.5 24,052.5 100.0% 15.7%  
Regional Population 178,822.4 153,352.9 100.0%
Caribbean – 24 nations/territories, 12 included in the report
Anguilla (United Kingdom) 15.4 15.4 100.0% 0.0%   
Antigua and Barbuda 88.7 88.7 100.0% 0.2%  
Aruba (Netherlands) 107.5 107.5 100.0% 0.3%   
Bahamas* 342.9 3.5 1.0% 0.0%  
Barbados 273.3 273.3 100.0% 0.7%  
British Virgin Islands (United Kingdom) 23.2 23.2 100.0% 0.1%   
Cayman Islands (United Kingdom) 56.2 56.2 100.0% 0.1%   
Cuba 11,258.0 11,258.0 100.0% 27.3%  
Dominica 67.8 67.8 100.0% 0.2%  
Dominican Republic 9,927.3 9,927.3 100.0% 24.0%  
Grenada 104.5 104.5 100.0% 0.3%   
Guadeloupe (France) 460.7 460.7 100.0% 1.1%   
Haiti 9,993.2 9,993.2 100.0% 24.2%  
18
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G)
Jamaica 2,741.1 2,741.1 100.0% 6.6%  
Martinique (France) 405.8 405.8 100.0% 1.0%   
Montserrat (United Kingdom) 5.9 5.9 100.0% 0.0%   
Netherlands Antilles (Netherlands) 200.7 200.7 100.0% 0.5%   
Puerto Rico (United States) 3,749.0 3,749.0 100.0% 9.1%   
Saint Kitts & Nevis 52.4 52.4 100.0% 0.1%  
Saint Lucia 174.3 174.3 100.0% 0.4%  
St Vincent & the Grenadines 109.3 109.3 100.0% 0.3%  
Trinidad and Tobago 1,341.5 1,341.5 100.0% 3.2%  
Turks & Caicos Islands (United Kingdom) 38.4 38.4 100.0% 0.1%   
Unites States Virgin Islands (United States) 109.1 109.1 100.0% 0.3%   
Central America – 8 nations/territories, 8 included in the report
Belize 311.6 311.6 100.0% 0.2%  
Costa Rica 4,658.9 4,658.9 100.0% 3.6%  
El Salvador 6,193.0 6,193.0 100.0% 4.7%  
Guatemala 14,388.9 14,388.9 100.0% 11.0%  
Honduras 7,600.5 7,600.5 100.0% 5.8%  
Mexico*# 113,423.0 88,135.2 77.7% 67.5%  
Nicaragua 5,788.2 5,788.2 100.0% 4.4%  
Panama 3,516.8 3,516.8 100.0% 2.7%  
Regional Population 155,881.0 130,593.1 100.0%
19
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G)
Oceania – 25 nations/territories, 15 included in the report
American Samoa (United States) 68.4 68.4 100.0% 0.5%   
Australia*# 22,268.4 1,263.4 5.7% 10.0%  
Cook Islands 20.3 20.3 100.0% 0.2%   
Fiji 860.6 860.6 100.0% 6.8%  
French Polynesia 270.8 270.8 100.0% 2.2%   
Guam (United States) 179.9 179.9 100.0% 1.4%   
Kiribati 99.5 99.5 100.0% 0.8%  
Marshall Islands 54.0 54.0 100.0% 0.4%  
Micronesia, Federated States of 111.1 111.1 100.0% 0.9%  
Midway Islands (United States) 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0%   
Nauru 10.3 10.3 100.0% 0.1%   
New Caledonia (France) 250.9 250.9 100.0% 2.0%   
Niue 1.5 1.5 100.0% 0.0%   
Northern Mariana Islands (United States) 60.9 60.9 100.0% 0.5%   
Palau, Republic of 20.5 20.5 100.0% 0.2%  
Papua New Guinea 6,858.3 6,858.3 100.0% 54.5%  
Samoa 183.1 183.1 100.0% 1.5%  
Solomon Islands 538.1 538.1 100.0% 4.3%  
Tokelau 1.1 1.1 100.0% 0.0%   
Tonga 104.1 104.1 100.0% 0.8%  
Tuvalu 9.8 9.8 100.0% 0.1%  
Unites States (Hawaii)*# 310,383.9 1,360.3 0.4% 10.8%  
Vanuatu 239.7 239.7 100.0% 1.9%  
Wake Island (United States) n.a n.a n.a. n.a.   
Wallis & Futuna Islands (France) 13.6 13.6 100.0% 0.1%   
20
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G)
South Asia – 4 nations/territories, 4 included in the report
Bangladesh*# 148,692.1 54,463.9 36.6% 7.4%  
India*# 1,224,614.3 661,192.9 54.0% 89.7%  
Maldives 315.9 315.9 100.0% 0.0%  
Sri Lanka 20,859.9 20,859.9 100.0% 2.8%  
Regional Population 1,394,482.3 736,832.6 100.0%
South East Asia, including China – 15 nations/territories, 14 included in the report
Brunei 398.9 398.9 100.0% 0.1%  
Cambodia 14,138.3 14,138.3 100.0% 2.0%  
China*# 1,341,335.2 105,885.4 7.9% 14.9%  
China – Hong Kong SAR** 7,053.2 7,053.2 100.0% 1.0%  
China – Macau SAR ** 543.7 543.7 100.0% 0.1%  
Indonesia 239,870.9 239,870.9 100.0% 33.9%  
Laos 6,200.9 6,200.9 100.0% 0.9%  
Malaysia 28,401.0 28,401.0 100.0% 4.0%  
Myanmar* 47,963.0 43,544.2 90.8% 6.1%  
Philippines 93,260.8 93,260.8 100.0% 13.2%  
Singapore 5,086.4 5,086.4 100.0% 0.7%  
Taiwan* 23,216.2 6,105.1 26.3% 0.9%  
Thailand 69,122.2 69,122.2 100.0% 9.8%  
Timor-Leste 1,124.4 1,124.4 100.0% 0.2%  
Vietnam 87,848.4 87,848.4 100.0% 12.4%  
Regional Population 1,965,563.5 708,583.8 100.0%
21
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G)
South America – 12 nations/territories, 8 included in the report
Argentina* 40,412.4 583.8 1.4% 0.2%  
Bolivia 9,929.8 9,929.8 100.0% 3.4%  
Brazil*# 194,946.5 160,659.0 82.4% 54.9%  
Chile* 17,113.7 788.0 4.6% 0.3%  
Colombia 46,294.8 46,294.8 100.0% 15.8%  
Ecuador 14,464.7 14,464.7 100.0% 4.9%  
French Guiana (France) 231.2 231.2 100.0% 0.1%   
Guyana 754.5 754.5 100.0% 0.3%  
Paraguay* 6,454.5 388.8 6.0% 0.1%  
Peru 29,076.5 29,076.5 100.0% 9.9%  
Suriname 524.6 524.6 100.0% 0.2%  
Venezuela 28,979.9 28,979.9 100.0% 9.9%  
TOTAL - Torrid Zone 5,327,069.5 2,756,950.2 0.11%
WORLD 6,895,889.0
Torrid Zone as % of World 77.2% 40.0%
* Partially in the Torrid Zone
** Special Administrative Region
# Data to be collected/ estimated at the sub-national level
22
Table A2 reports sub-national regions to be reported for large countries (i.e.
representing more than 5% of the regional population) in the Report.
Table A2: For Large Countries, Sub-national Regions in the Torrid Zone for Reporting
Australia
Queensland Western Australia Northern Territory
• Central West • Kimberley
• Far North • Pilbara
• Fitzroy
• Mackay
• Northern
• North West
Bangladesh
Barisal Chittagong Kulna
Brazil
Acre Goias Pernambuco
Alagoas Maranhoa Rio de Janeiro
Amapa Mato Grosso Rio Grande di Norte
Amazonas Mato Grosso do Sul Rondonia
Bahia Minas Gerais Roraima
Ceara Para Sao Paulo
Distrito Federal Paraiba Sergipe
Espirito Santo Piaui Tocantins
China
Guangdong Guangxi Hainan
India
Andaman & Nicobar Islands Gujarat Mizoram
Andhra Pradesh Jharkhand Orrisa
Chhattisgarh Karnataka Pondicherry
Dadra & Nagar Haveli Kerala Tamil Nadu
Damon Lakshadweep West Bengal
Dui Madhya Pradesh
Goa Maharashtra
Mexico
Aguascalientes Jalisco Quintana Roo
Campeche Mexico San Luis Potosi
Chiapas Michoacan Tabasco
Colima Morelos Tlazcala
Federal District Nayarit Veracruz
Guanajuato Oaxaca Yucatan
Guerrero (Warrior) Puebla Zacatecas
Hidalgo (Noble) Queretaro
Saudi Arabia
Asir Jizan Najran
Baha Makkah
United States
Hawaii
23
Annex B – Conceptual Framework
Figure B1 shows the conceptual framework discussed in Section 2.3.
Figure B1: Conceptual Framework
Figure B2: Linkages Between Eco and Human Systems
24
Annex C – Questions to Consider in
Assessing ‘Progress’
The questions to be addressed in each of system are set out below. The questions
inform the range of lead and supplementary indicators to be reported, and the types
of case studies and other information to be included in the Report.
Ecosystem
Atmosphere domain
What is the trend in the level of carbon dioxide emissions?

What proportion of global CO2 emissions are generated in the tropics?
What is the number of days exceeding safe levels of harmful substances in
designated cities? What are the health impacts of air pollution?
How is climate change impacting the tropical region?
What proportion of primary energy supply is from fossil fuels? Is it changing?
Is the energy use per unit of GDP changing? What are the drivers of change?
What are the trends in the number of motor vehicles?
How is society in the tropics responding to challenges associated with air pollution
and climate change?
Land domain
What are trends in the rate of land degradation? Are there regional differences?
What are the impacts of land degradation?
Are efforts being made to address the issue of land degradation? What are they?
What are trends and land use changes?
How is the area of agricultural land changing?
Inland Water domain
What is the level of organic pollutants in water? Is it increasing or decreasing?

Is human activity contributing to changes in water pollution? How?
What efforts are being made to reduce human-related water pollution?
What proportion of water withdrawals are from renewable sources?
How sustainable are current water consumption patterns?
Oceans domain
What is the fish catch (as a proxy for the health of the oceans)? Is it changing over
time? What factors are driving the change? Are there regional differences?
What proportion of the commercial fish catch is sourced from aquaculture?
What is the significance of marine fishing to tropical nations/ communities?
Are there examples of over-fishing and the depletion of fish stocks?
25
How have nations/ communities responded to cases of fish stock depletion? How
successful have they been for both the environment and communities?
What proportion of the marine area is protected? Is it changing?
Biodiversity domain
What is the extent of primary forests? Are there regional differences?

What are the impacts of deforestation on biodiversity in the tropics? Are the impacts
relatively greater in the tropics?
What is the extent of bio-diversity in the tropical region?
How many species of mammal are threatened in the tropics? Is it changing?
How are humans responding to risks to biodiversity? How successful have efforts
been? Are there examples that could be used as case studies?
What are trends in the extent of terrestrial and marine protection areas?
Human System
Society domain
Poverty dimension
How many people live in poverty in accordance with the international definition?
What is the geographic distribution?
Is the number of people living in poverty increasing or decreasing?
What is the proportion of people living with insufficient food? Is this changing over
time? Are there regional differences?
What is the distribution of income?
Urbanisation dimension
What proportion of the population is urban? What is its rate of growth?

What is the growth rate in slum populations?
Health dimesnion
What is the life expectancy of people living in the Torrid Zone? Are there regional
differences? How is it changing over time?
Are maternal and child mortality rates changing over time? Are there major regional
differences?
Is the incidence of vector born diseases such as malaria and dengue increasing?
Is the geographic spread of vector born diseases such as malaria and dengue
increasing?
What are trends in the incidence of tuberculosis? Are there regional differences?
Are incidence rates for non-communicable diseases like diabetes changing?
What are trends in the incidence of obesity? Are there regional differences?
What is the HIV incidence rate? Are there regional differences?
26
Education dimension
What are trends in mean years of schooling?

What are literacy rates in the youth and adult populations?
What proportion of children attend primary school? How is it changing?
What is the male/ female attendance ratio in primary school?
What are the benefits of a minimum of primary level schooling?
What proportion of primary students continue on to secondary education?
Work dimension
What is the unemployment rate? Is it changing over time? Are there regional
differences?
Economy domain
Economic Growth dimension
How significant are the economies of the Torrid Zone?

What is the per capita GDP? At what rate is it changing?
Which industries are the most significant?
Which industries are driving growth? Are there regional differences?
Are there risks to future economic growth? What are they?
What is the trend in private sector capital formation? Are there regional differences?
International Trade and Investment dimension
What is the value of exports and imports of goods and services?

What are the most significant exporting products and services?
What are the most important importing products and services?
What are levels of inbound and outbound foreign investment?
Science and Technology dimension
As a percentage of GDP, what is expenditure on research and development activities?

What proportion of exports are information and communications technology?
What is the number of scientific and technical journal articles generated?
How many science, technology and engineering graduates are there each year?
Government Debt dimension
As a percentage of GDP, what is the level of central government debt? Are there
regional differences?
What is the debt service burden?
27
Governance domain
Crime and Corruption dimension
What is the homicide rate? Is it increasing or decreasing?

Is the level of corruption, as measured by Transparency International, increasing or
decreasing? Are there any regional differences?
Gender Equality dimesnion
Are there major differences in the proportion of boys and girls attending primary
school? Is this changing over time? Are there regional differences?
What is the ratio of male to female adults with at least secondary education?
Are more women participating in the labour force than previously?
What is the proportion of women in the national parliament?
Human Security dimension
How many people are classified as refugees? Over time, is the number increasing or
decreasing?
What human security issues are associated with climate change, rising sea level and
food and water security?
Infrastructure dimension
As a percentage of GDP, what is public sector capital formation?

What is the proportion of people with access to clean drinking water? Are there
regional differences? How is it changing?
What is the proportion of people with access to adequate sanitation facilities? Are
there regional differences?
What is driving changes in access to clean water and sanitation facilities? Are there
case studies that could be reported?
What are the individual and social benefits of clean drinking water and sanitation?
Is the number of air transport passengers changing?
Communication dimension
What proportion of the population subscribe to mobile telephone/ data services?

What proportion of the population subscribes to fixed line telephone services?
What proportion of the population is covered by mobile cellular network?
What proportion of the population are internet users?
What proportion of the population subscribe to broadband services?
How is technology affecting economic and social development?
28
Annex D – Indicator Assessment
How do we define progress?
Progress is not just about GDP, although growth in GDP is usually a necessary if not
sufficient condition for progress. In fact, part of the reason for the move towards
greater interest in progress indicators is concern that life satisfaction is not
increasing at a rate commensurate with GDP growth. Progress is multidimensional
and includes environmental and social aspects, in addition to economic aspects. The
relative importance of each aspect will vary from country to country, but some issues
such as health, education and access to clean water are considered to be universally
important (Trewin et al 2010).
It is proposed that three principles are key when the concept of ‘progress’ is
considered. Firstly, in its broadest sense, it is considered to be synonymous with life
getting better. Secondly, it is multidimensional and depends on the state of the
environment, the economy and individual and societal wellbeing. As such, measures
of progress for each domain and dimension are necessary. Thirdly, any assessment
depends on the personal evaluations that readers will place on the relative
importance of progress in each domain and dimension.
Progress in each system

As progress is assumed to be synonymous with life getting better, progress in each
system is characterised as:
• For the ecosystem, a reduction of threats to the environment and improvements
in the health and sustainability while, ideally, maintaining at a minimum, a
relatively constant level of ecosystem services (though noting that consumption
of non-renewables represent a permanent loss); and
• For the human system, enhancing societal, economic and governance outcomes.
Economic progress is typically associated with increased national income and
productivity. Social and governance progress is associated with increases in the
wellbeing of the population; a reduction of threats to, and increases in, social
cohesion; and, protection and enhancement of democratic rights.
Whether progress has been achieved will depend on each reader’s assessment of the
relative importance of progress in each domain and dimension. Depending on a
reader’s perspective, progress in any one domain might be associated with progress/
regress in another. For example, economic growth may improve an individual’s well
being, provide tax revenue for government to spend on environmental protection,
and also create more greenhouse emissions. The overall assessment of whether the
economic growth in question is associated with progress will depend on the reader’s
perspective and the weightings attached to each outcome associated with economic
growth (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2004).
An overview of why each domain and dimension is considered important in assessing
progress is discussed in the following sections.
For all indicators the discussion is around preferred indicators, though the actual
indicators used will be influenced by the availability of sub-national data and/or the
capacity to develop reasonable assumptions to estimate sub-national areas.
29
Ecosystem
The ecosystem provides services that underpin all life on Earth. That is, ecosystem
health and sustainability is essential to the ongoing health, development and progress of
the human system.
In the conceptual framework this is represented as the human system being a subset
of the ecosystem, with a range of interactions between the two systems. Ecosystem
services in the framework comprise:
• Atmosphere;
• Land;
• Inland Water;
• Oceans; and
• Biodiversity.
Services from each of these domains deliver utility to the human system for a broad
range of economic, social and aesthetic purposes and, inter alia, it is the ‘richness’
and health of the ecosystem that delivers important economic and social benefits.
Importantly, the state of these services is affected by human system activity. For
example, while the stock of land, water, the atmosphere and biodiversity is relatively
constant, impacts from the human system can be associated with changes in the
stock (e.g. reduced biodiversity) or the state of the stock (e.g. increased pollution in
the atmosphere and waters).
Atmosphere
The Earth’s atmosphere is the layer of gases surrounding the planet and retained by
gravity. The atmosphere protects life on Earth by absorbing ultraviolet solar
radiation, warming the surface through heat retention (greenhouse effect), and
reducing temperature extremes between day and night.
Human activities associated with industrial production and economic growth
combined with deforestation and the burning of fossil fuels is affecting the
atmosphere’s composition and contributing to global warming. Global warming is
creating broad environmental, social and economic sustainability issues.
Carbon Dioxide Emissions (lead indicator)
Carbon dioxide enters the atmosphere as a result of natural processes (e.g. animal,
human and plant respiration) and human (anthropogenic) activities that would not
normally happen in nature, such as extraction and burning of coal or production of
plastics.
Fossil fuel burning has produced about three-quarters of the increase in carbon
dioxide emissions from human activity over the past 20 years, with the balance
caused mostly by changes in land-use, particularly deforestation (IPCC, 2001).
Question: What is the volume of carbon dioxide emissions, including per capita and
per dollar of GDP? Is it changing?
Rationale: Carbon dioxide emissions are recognised as a major contributor to
increased rates of global warming.
Source data: World Development Indicators carbon dioxide emissions – kilotons
(Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Environmental Sciences Division, Oak
Ridge National Laboratory, Tennessee, United States).
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World Development Indicators carbon dioxide emissions – metric tons per capita
(Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Environmental Sciences Division, Oak
Ridge National Laboratory, Tennessee, United States).
World Development Indicators carbon dioxide emissions – kilograms per PPP dollar of
GDP (Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Environmental Sciences Division,
Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Tennessee, United States).
Fossil Fuels as a Proportion of Total Primary Energy Supply (supplementary indicator)
The burning of fossil fuels – such as gasoline, coal, oil and natural gas – in
combustion reactions results in the production of carbon dioxide. The heavy use of
fossil fuels since the industrial revolution, combined with the destruction of forests
which use carbon dioxide, has contributed to increased levels of carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere.
Changes in the energy mix could alter the amount of new carbon dioxide emissions
entering the atmosphere. New technologies are making renewable energy sources
such as wind, solar, tidal and geothermal more affordable, and at the same time
many policy makers across the world are implementing measures to reduce carbon
dioxide emissions and encourage take-up of renewable energy technologies.
Question: How significant are fossil fuels in the energy mix? Is it changing?
Rationale: There is increasing recognition that fossil fuels are a major source of
carbon dioxide emissions, and increasing research and investment is being directed
to develop and encourage use of non-fossil energies.
Source data: International Energy Agency (http://www.iea.org/stats/index.asp). The
fossil fuels indicator includes renewable fossil fuels.
Energy Use per Dollar of GDP (supplementary indicator)
This measure provides an indication of an economy’s energy intensity or energy

efficiency. High energy intensities indicate a high price or cost of converting energy
to GDP. Factors beyond pure economic output will affect the energy intensity,
including general standards of living, weather conditions and the cost of energy.
For example, the energy efficiency of appliances and buildings, vehicle fuel economy
and the frequency, length and method of travel and transportation, and efforts by
policy makers to improve energy efficiency all affect energy intensity.
Rising household income associated with economic development also contributes to
increased household demand for energy in the form of electricity and fuel for
transport.
Another impact on energy intensity is the structure of the economy. Other things
being equal, economies with a focus on primary and secondary industries typically
consume more energy per unit of GDP compared to those with a focus on service
industries.
Question: What is the economy’s energy use intensity? Is it changing?
Rationale: Changes in energy use per dollar of GDP can reflect changes in the
composition of GDP (e.g. a move to greater output from less energy-intensive service
industries) and/ or increased efficiency in the consumption of energy.
Source data: World Development Indicators GDP per unit of energy use – PPP dollar
per kilogram of oil equivalent (International Energy Agency (IEA Statistics ©
OECD/IEA, http://www.iea.org/stats/index.asp), and World Bank PPP data.).
31
Break Out Box(es) and discussion issues
• Case study of impacts of global warming in the tropics.

• Analysis of outdoor air pollution data for selected cities. The World Bank in Air
Pollution in World Cities (PM10 Concentrations) reports 1999 particulate air
pollution for countries and for cities with a population greater than 100,000. No
time series data are available. The World Bank in 2007 World Development
Indicators reports, for selected cities, particulate matter, sulfur dioxide and
nitrogen dioxide per cubic metre. No time series data are available.
• Health impacts of outdoor air pollution in cities or near major industries, which
disproportionately kills or harms the health of poorer people.
• Health impacts of indoor air pollution from burning biomass or coal for cooking,
which particularly affects women and young children.
• Discuss changes in fuel and industrial emissions standards and the flow through
to improved levels of outdoor air pollution in some cities.
• Discuss relationship between economic development and demand for motor
vehicles and what is happening in the tropics.
• Case study discussing key drivers of change in primary energy sources.
Land
Over the past 20 years population growth and economic development have been
associated with unprecedented land-use change. Growth forecasts suggest this is
likely to continue over the next 50 years.
The most significant land use changes have been:
• Loss of forest, grassland and wetlands and their composition;
• Cropland expansion and intensification; and
• Urban expansion.
Land use change of the types listed above can be associated with land degradation,
typically in the form of chemical contamination, erosion, nutrient depletion, water
scarcity and salinity.
Beneath land degradation lies disturbance of the biological cycles – such as water
and nutrient cycles – on which life depends, as well as social and development issues
(GEO4 2007).
Land Degradation (headline indicator)
Land degradation occurs when the value of the biophysical environment is affected
by processes (often human-induced) acting on the land, and which is viewed to be
deleterious or undesirable. Land degradation can be considered in three categories:
soil erosion; soil degradation; and ecosystem decline.
Mechanisms that initiate land degradation include physical, chemical, and biological
processes. Important among physical processes are a decline in soil structure leading
to crusting, compaction, erosion, desertification, anaerobism, environmental
pollution, and unsustainable use of natural resources. Significant chemical processes
include acidification, leaching, salinisation, decrease in retention capacity, and
fertility depletion. Biological processes include reduction in total and biomass carbon,
and decline in land biodiversity. The latter comprises important concerns related to
eutrophication of surface water, contamination of groundwater, and emissions of
trace gases (CO2, CH4, N2O, NOx) from terrestrial/ aquatic ecosystems to the
atmosphere. Soil structure is the important property that affects all three
32
degradative processes. Land degradation can be considered as a biophysical process
driven by socioeconomic and political causes (Eswaran et al, 2001).
Subsistence agriculture, poverty, and illiteracy can be important contributors to land
(and environmental) degradation.
Question: What is the extent of land degradation in the Torrid Zone? What is the
major source of the land degradation? How is it changing?
Rationale: Land degradation is a significant issue because of its impact on world food
security and quality of the environment.
Source data: FAO TERRASTAT (http://www.fao.org/ag/agl/agll/terrastat/#terrastatdb)
reports land degradation severity by country. No time series data are reported.
Using long term, remotely sensed normalised difference vegetation index data Bai et
al (2008) have estimated land degradation and improvement at the national level.
The information is reported in map form in GEO4. It may be possible to source sub-
national data by contacting Bai et al.
Agricultural Land (supplementary indicator)
The need to feed increasing populations requires changes in land use to increase the
area of agricultural land and/ or increases in the productivity of existing agricultural
land.
Question: What is the area of agricultural land? Is it changing?
Rationale: Agricultural land is a supply of land (a resource) capable of producing food
for local populations and trade. As populations increase, ceterus paribus, demand for
agricultural land is expected to increase. Factors affecting the rate of change in the
supply of agricultural land include:
• Changes in land productivity;
• Changes in the level/ intensity of trade in agricultural products;
• Changes in trade (either exports or imports);
• Loss of agricultural land associated with land degradation, changed land use (e.g.
residential purposes associated with urbanisation) or other factors; and
• Additional agricultural land associated with, for example, the clearing of forest
areas.
Source data: FAO.
• Case study of water erosion (extent and measures to constrain).

• Discussion of land use change and its impacts (e.g. deforestation and urban
expansion).
• Analysis of changes in land productivity and drivers by looking at cereal yield per
hectare of harvested land is a useful output measure of productivity. Other
factors influencing productivity include the soil quality, climatic conditions and
use of machinery and/or fertilisers. Higher yields suggest that, with a given
quantity of land, there is greater capacity to feed a population (i.e. reduces the
need for deforestation).
33
Inland Water
The water environment and development are strongly interdependent. The state of
the hydrological regime, water quality and ecosystem health are major factors
contributing to human wellbeing. Drivers of change in the water environment are
largely the same as those influencing change in the atmosphere and on land. The
world’s population, consumption and poverty have continued to grow, along with
technological advances. Increased human population and consumption combined
with poverty are putting pressures on the environment, altering and intensifying
freshwater use, destroying and polluting aquatic habitats, and overexploiting aquatic
living resources, particularly fish (GEO4 2007).
Organic Water Pollution (headline indicator)
Water pollution and lack of access to safe drinking water are major global problems
and cause many deaths annually. Nonetheless, the issue of water pollution is not
confined to undeveloped and developing countries, and many developed countries
experience widespread water pollution.
Water is typically referred to as polluted when it is impaired by anthropogenic
contaminants and either does not support a human use, such as drinking water, and/
or undergoes a marked shift in its ability to support its constituent biotic communities,
such as fish. Natural phenomena such as algae blooms, storms, and earthquakes also
cause major changes in water quality and the ecological status of water.
Organic pollution occurs when an excess of organic matter enters the water. As
organic matter increases, the number of decomposers increases rapidly, requiring a
great deal of oxygen. This leads to a depletion of oxygen as decomposition occurs,
and can kill aquatic organisms. As aquatic organisms die they are broken down by
decomposers which lead to further depletion of the oxygen levels.
A type of organic pollution can occur when inorganic pollutants such as nitrogen and
phosphates accumulate in aquatic ecosystems. High levels of these nutrients cause
an overgrowth of plants and algae. As the plants and algae die, they become organic
material in the water.
Organic water pollutants include:
• Detergents;
• Disinfection by-products found in chemically disinfected drinking water, such as
chloroform;
• Food processing waste, which can include oxygen-demanding substances, fats
and grease;
• Insecticides and herbicides, a huge range of organohalides and other chemical
compounds;
• Petroleum hydrocarbons, including fuels (gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuels, and fuel
oil) and lubricants (motor oil), and fuel combustion byproducts;
• Tree and bush debris from logging operations;
• Volatile organic compounds (VOCs), such as industrial solvents, from improper
storage;
• Chlorinated solvents, which are dense non-aqueous phase liquids (DNAPLs), may
fall to the bottom of reservoirs, since they don't mix well with water and are
denser;
• Perchlorate; and
• Various chemical compounds found in personal hygiene and cosmetic products.
34
Question: What is the trend in rates of organic water pollution? Is it changing?
Rationale: Virtually all types of water pollution are harmful to the health of humans
and animals.
Source data: World Development Indicators, organic water pollutant – kilograms per
day measured with respect to biological oxygen demand of BOD. Data uses 1998
study by Hemamala Hettige, Muthukumara Mani, and David Wheeler, "Industrial
Pollution in Economic Development: Kuznets Revisited", available at
www.worldbank.org/nipr. Data were updated by the World Bank's Development
Research Group using the same methodology as the initial study.
Renewable Water Resources
Fresh water is a renewable resource, but can be difficult to purify, is expensive to

transport and impossible to substitute. Water is essential to food production, to
economic development and to life. The finite nature of renewable fresh water makes
it a critical natural resource to examine in the context of population growth.
As population grows the average amount of renewable fresh water available to each
person declines, and when certain ratios of human numbers to renewable fresh water
supplies are exceeded, water stress and outright scarcity are all but inevitable.
Since 1940, the amount of fresh water used by humanity has roughly quadrupled as
world population has doubled. Some water experts estimate the practical upper limit
of usable renewable fresh water lies between 9,000 and 14,000 cubic kilometres
yearly. That suggests a second quadrupling of world water use is unlikely.
Renewable water is that which is regularly replenished (e.g. surface water) while
non-renewable water is replenished over longer time periods (e.g. ground water).
The longer term impacts of non-sustainable use of non-renewable water sources are
largely unknown, but are likely to affect both the eco and human systems.
Water scarcity is defined as less than 1,000m3 per capita per year, water stress as
1,000 to 1,700m3 per capita per year and water vulnerability 1,700 to 2,500m3 per
capita per year.
Question: What is the volume of freshwater resources in the Torrid Zone? What
proportion is renewable? What proportion of the renewable resource is used each
year? What is the renewable resource per capita. Is this changing over time?
Rationale: Access to freshwater is essential for life and renewable water represents a
sustainable source of fresh water for environmental, social and economic uses. An
understanding of resource use is necessary for resource planning.
Source data: World Bank Indicators, renewable internal freshwater resources (billion
cubic metres) and FAO AquaStat, renewable internal freshwater withdrawals
(percentage).
• Discuss changes in freshwater withdrawals over time including per capita.

• Discuss cross border water trading and/ or treaties.
• Discuss access to fresh water-related risks to food and human security.
35
Oceans
Oceans constitute 71% of the Earth's surface and contain 97.5% of the Earth’s water.
A large proportion of all life on Earth exists in the oceans, though the actual proportion
is unknown as many species are still to be discovered as large areas remain unexplored.
Ocean movements and marine life influence fundamental requirements for life. Marine
organisms are significant contributors to the oxygen cycle and ocean currents play a
major role in regulating the Earth's climate and influencing the water cycle. In addition,
marine life represents a vast resource providing food, medicine, and raw materials to
support human life and economic activities. The trend to increasing urbanisation and
tourism development is having significant impacts in many coastal ecosystems.
Wild Marine Catch (supplementary indicator)
The stock of fish would be a good indicator of the health of ocean systems but there
is no indicator for the stock of fish available at any moment in time to assess the
sustainability of existing marine fishing practices. The wild marine catch is a partial
indicator of human demand for marine stock (i.e. the ‘take’ from this natural
resource) with no reference to total available stock.
A decline in catch may reflect increasing scarcity, though it may also suggest reduced
fishing effort. If the catch remains constant while the effort has increased, this
suggests that fish stocks may have decreased. In the absence of other information,
increases in the annual wild catch over time will unambiguously increase pressure on
the sustainability of fishing practices. In some areas, notably where poverty
overshadows the importance of environmental protection, destructive fishing
practices, such as use of dynamite and cyanide, is having long term impacts on the
capacity of marine ecosystems to recover and again become productive.
Question: What is the wild marine catch of countries in the Torrid Zone? How is it
changing over time? Have changes been influenced by the introduction of more
sustainable policies and/or practices?
Rationale: Marine wild stocks represent a good source of protein and are primarily
harvested as a food source. Rapid population growth is increasing demand for
seafood and contributing to overfishing in many areas. Overfishing places a direct
strain on many marine species and may affect other species through disruptions to
the food chain or accidental catching of other fish, birds, mammals, and turtles.
Source data: FAO FIGIS dataset (http://www.fao.org/fishery/statistics/global-
capture-production/en).
Aquaculture Production (supplementary indicator)
Aquaculture is the farming of aquatic organisms such as fish, crustaceans, molluscs

and aquatic plants and involves cultivating populations under controlled conditions.
This is in contrast to the harvesting of wild fish. In 2009 aquaculture accounted for
around 45% of fish supplies, up from around 30% in 2000.
The increasing proportion of the fish production from aquaculture represents a
human response to the issue of unsustainable fishing practices.
Question: What is aquaculture production in Torrid Zone countries? What is its
proportion of total fish production? How is it changing over time?
Rationale: Increased aquaculture production is associated with a transition of more
sustainable fishing practices. Assuming continued population growth and constant
per capita demand for seafood, responsible aquaculture represents the best hope of
both meeting demand and halting the decline of wild stocks.
Source data: FAO FIGIS dataset (http://www.fao.org/fishery/statistics/global-
aquaculture-production/en).
36
Marine Protection Areas (supplementary indicator)
Marine environments in most coastal regions are impacted by a wide range of human
uses. Commercial and recreational fishing, coastal development, catchment
activities, pollution and introduced marine pests contribute to the incremental loss of
habitats such as seagrasses, mangroves and reefs, and a reduction in the numbers of
some species to such an extent that they become threatened or endangered. The
extent and persistence of impacts from these activities on marine biodiversity
(usually considered as genetic, species and ecosystem diversity) have considerably
decreased the overall ecological condition or ‘health’ of many coastal regions (Marine
Parks Authority 2008).
In recent decades, concerns over the cumulative impacts of human activities
resulting in declines in the ecological condition of marine ecosystems, and sizes and
abundances of many species, have led to the use of marine protected areas as a
management tool for conserving biodiversity in most of the world’s oceans.
Question: What is the extent of marine protected areas? Is it changing?
Rationale: Marine protected areas represent an input to biodiversity protection and
are a useful indicator of a Government’s willingness to protect biodiversity.
Nonetheless, ‘protected status’ is neither an indication of how well managed
protected areas are, or that protection measures are effectively enforced.
Source data: World Development Indicators, marine protected areas (percentage of
total surface area).
• Case study of the impacts of overfishing on the environment and local

communities.
• Discuss the work of the International Programme on the State of the Ocean.
• Case study of the impact of agricultural activity on water quality in sections of
the Great Barrier Reef and flow on impacts on marine ecosystems.
• Discussion of risks in the tropics if ocean temperatures rise.
Biodiversity
Biodiversity is the degree of variation of life forms within a given ecosystem and is
typically viewed as a measure of ecosystem health. Biodiversity is in part a function
of climate, and generally there is an increase in biodiversity from the poles to the
tropics. A biodiversity hotspot is a region with a high level of endemic species. While
hotspots are spread all over the world, the majority are forest areas, and most are
located in the tropics.
Biodiversity is commonly used to replace the more clearly defined and long
established terms of species diversity and species richness.
Human life relies on biodiversity for sustenance, health, well-being and enjoyment.
We derive all of our food and many medicines and industrial products from wild and
domesticated components of biological diversity. Biodiversity is also the basis for
much of our recreation and tourism, and includes the ecosystems which provide us
with many services such as clean water.
37
Extent of Primary Forest Indicator (lead indicator)
Primary forests are forests of native species with no clearly visible signs of past or
present human activity and ecological processes are not significantly disturbed.
Question: What is the area of primary forest? How is it changing over time? What are
some of the impacts that may be associated with the incremental loss of primary
forests?
Rationale: The greatest diversity of the world's plant and animal resources tends to
be found in primary forests in the humid tropics. Biodiversity in this biome is
relatively unexplored and is under threat due to habitat loss. Other factors
influencing biodiversity conservation in the tropics are land tenure and the lack of
data on which to base management decisions.
Other indicators that could be monitored include the area of forest with sustainable
management plans and the area designated for the conservation of biological
diversity and the protection of soil and water resources.
The extent of primary forests is considered the best headline indicator of biodiversity
risk.
Source data: FAO Global Forest Resources Assessment 2010.
Terrestrial and Marine Protected Areas Indicator (supplementary indicator)
Concerns over the cumulative impacts of human activities resulting in declines in the
ecological condition of marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and the extent and
abundance of many species have been major factors influencing the creation of
protected areas as a management tool for conserving biodiversity.
Question: What is the extent of terrestrial and marine protected areas? Is it
changing?
Rationale: Terrestrial and marine protected areas represent an input to biodiversity
protection and are a useful indicator of a Government’s willingness to protect
biodiversity. Nonetheless, ‘protected status’ is neither an indication of how well
managed protected areas are, or that protection measures are effectively enforced.
Source data: UN MDG indicators, sourced from the World Database of Protected
Areas.
• Discuss the importance of tropical biodiversity.

• Discuss the extent of threatened mammal species, including impacts of
threatening processes such as habitat destruction and degradation,
overexploitation, invasive alien species, human disturbance, pollution and climate
change (Baillie et al 2004). The number of threatened species is an indicator of
the impact of these threatening processes.
• Case study of successful efforts to reduce species at risk.
38
Human System
The human system encompasses all civil aspects that contribute to individual and
societal well-being. In the conceptual framework the human system comprises three
domains and 14 dimensions, namely:
• Society
o Poverty
o Urbanisation
o Health
o Education
o Work
• Economy
o Economic output
o International trade and investment
o Science and technology
o Government
• Governance
o Crime and corruption
o Gender equality
o Human security
o Infrastructure
o Communication
Effective political, economic and institutional frameworks are a necessary, if not
sufficient, condition for individual and social well-being.
Society
Societies are groups of people connected through persistent relations, or may be

large social groupings sharing the same geographical or virtual territory. Societies
are typically subject to the same political authority and dominant cultural
expectations.
More commonly, a society is considered as an economic, social, or industrial
infrastructure made up of collections of individuals. As societies are collaborative,
members can benefit in ways not possible on an individual basis (i.e. societies deliver
both individual and social or common benefits).
Poverty
The World Bank defines poverty as pronounced deprivation in well-being. One

approach to considering the concept of ‘well-being’ is the command over
commodities. Using this concept, people are better off if they have a greater
command over resources. Poverty is then measured by comparing an individual’s
income or consumption with some defined threshold below which they are considered
to be poor. This is the most conventional view, with poverty seen largely in monetary
terms, and is the starting point for most analyses of poverty.
39
A second approach to well-being (and hence poverty) is to assess whether people are
able to obtain a specific type of consumption good, for example food, shelter, health
care or education.
Perhaps the broadest approach to well-being is articulated by Amartya Sen, who
argues that well-being comes from a ‘capability’ to function in society. Thus poverty
arises when people lack key capabilities and so have inadequate incomes or
education, poor health, insecurity, low self confidence, a sense of powerlessness, or
the absence of rights such as freedom of speech. Viewed in this way poverty is a
multi-dimensional phenomenon, and while higher income will help reduce poverty, it
may need to be accompanied by other measures to empower the poor, insure them
against risks, or to address specific weaknesses (such as inadequate availability of
schools or a corrupt health service).
Poverty is related to but distinct from, inequality and vulnerability. Inequality focuses
on the distribution of attributes, such as income or consumption, across the whole
population, and vulnerability is defined as the risk of falling into poverty in the future.
Vulnerability is a key dimension of well-being since it affects individuals’ behaviour
(in terms of investment, production patterns, and coping strategies) and the
perceptions of their own situations (World Bank Institute 2005).
Population Below $1.25 (PPP) per day (headline indicator)

Question: What proportion and number of people in the Torrid Zone living on less
than $1.25 (PPP) per day? How is it changing over time? Are there regional
differences?
Rationale: When comparing poverty across nations it is commonly measured by
comparing an individual’s income or consumption with some defined threshold below
which they are considered to be poor.
Source data: UN MDG indicators. Sporadic time series data are available. Data can
be regionalised.
Coverage in the Oceania region is poor, but is better than an alternative MDG
indicator – ‘Population below $1 (PPP) per day’ – that could be used, and includes
developed nations such as Australia and the United States.
Undernourished Population (supplementary indicator)

Undernourishment is associated with hunger and malnutrition and generally indicates
a lack of some or all nutritional elements necessary for human health.
There are two basic types of undernourishment/ malnutrition. The first and most
important is protein energy malnutrition – the lack of enough protein (from meat and
other sources) and food that provides energy (measured in calories) which all of the
basic food groups provide. This is the type of malnutrition that is referred to when
world hunger is discussed. The second type of malnutrition, also very important, is
micronutrient (vitamin and mineral) deficiency. This is not the type of malnutrition
that is referred to when world hunger is discussed, though it is certainly very
important (World Hunger 2011).
The undernourished or food deprived are those individuals whose food intake falls
below the minimum level of dietary energy requirements.
Question: What proportion of the Torrid Zone’s population is undernourished? How is
it changing over time? Are there regional differences?
Rationale: The capacity to feed oneself and dependants is a fundamental indicator of
well being. The proportion of the population below the minimum level of dietary
energy consumption, referred to as the prevalence of undernourishment, is the
percentage of the population that is undernourished or food deprived.
40
Source data: UN MDG indicator – population undernourished. Sporadic time series
data are available. Data can be regionalised.

• The Leadership Group identified an interest in income distribution, of which the
MDG indicator of the ‘poorest quintile's share in national income or consumption
(percent)’ is a good example. The metadata for this indicator advises that
“Regional and global estimates are not available at the moment. Methods for
generating regional and global estimates are in development.” Nonetheless, we
could regionalise ourselves (as a percent or an absolute figure), and include this
as an analysis indicator in the general discussion, as a break out box discussion
issue or as a case study.
Urbanisation
Urbanisation is the increase in the number of people living in urban areas. It is

closely linked to urban growth which is defined as the increase in the physical size of
an urban area. The process of urbanisation is driven by natural increase in urban
populations and the movement of people to urban environments. Urbanisation is
closely linked to modernisation, industrialisation, and the sociological process of
rationalisation. Rapid urbanisation and high urban density can create many issues
around urban sustainability in environmental and social terms.
Rural-urban migration is especially commonplace in developing countries and is
largely attributed to employment and, to a lesser extent, social opportunities.
Urbanisation rates vary between countries. For example, the United States and
United Kingdom have a far higher urbanisation level than China, India, Swaziland or
Niger, but a far slower annual urbanisation rate, as a significantly lower proportion of
the population is currently living in rural areas.
Urbanisation is often viewed as a negative trend, but it can also be viewed as
generating economic and social benefits through reduced commuting and
transportation expenses while improving opportunities for jobs, education and
housing. Living in cities also delivers benefits from opportunities associated with
proximity and increased diversity and competition.
Urban Population (headline indicator)

Question: What is the urban population in the Torrid Zone, and what is its proportion
of total population? Are there regional differences? How is it changing over time?
Rationale: Rapid urban population growth can create significant environmental, social
and economic challenges, including the provision of basic amenities to rapidly
growing populations.
Source data: World Bank World Development Indicators urban population (percent of
total) and urban population growth (annual percent). Time series data are available.
Slum Population
Urban dwellers suffering the most from inadequate basic amenities are the urban
poor. Many of the urban poor live in slums or informal settlements which lack safe
drinking water, adequate sanitation and durable housing.
The UN defines a slum dwelling as lacking one or more of the following conditions:
• Access to improved water;
• Access to improved sanitation;
• Sufficient-living area;
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• Durability of housing; or
• Security of tenure.
Since information on secure tenure is not available for many countries with large
slum populations, only the first four indicators are used to estimate the number of
slum households and the proportion of urban populations living in slums.
Achieving significant improvement in the lives of at least 100 million slum dwellers is
a component of the United Nations Millennium Development Goal to ensure
environmental sustainability.
Question: What is the urban slum population in the Torrid Zone? Are there regional
differences in growth rates and impacts?
Rationale: Poverty is growing faster in urban areas (compared to rural areas). It is
estimated that over one billion people live in urban slums. Slums are typically
overcrowded, polluted and dangerous, and lack basic services. Most of the urban
growth that is currently occurring is in less-developed regions with fewer resources
to cope with the scale of the change.
Source data: UN MDG indicators, slum population as percentage of urban (percent).
Health
There are two key perspectives regarding the concept of health. One view focuses
mostly on the individual and emphasises the presence or absence of disease and of
medically measured risk factors. A broader and more widely accepted view includes a
wide range of social and economic risk and protective factors along with various
aspects of wellbeing. Individuals typically place a high value on good health.
It is recognised that the context in which an individual lives impacts health status
and quality of life. That is, health is maintained and improved not only through the
advancement and application of health science, but also through efforts and lifestyle
choices of the individual and society. According to the World Health Organisation, the
main determinants of health include the social and economic environment, the
physical environment, and the person's individual characteristics and behaviours
(WHO 2011).
In addition to genetics, key factors influencing health outcomes include:
• Income and social status;
• Social support networks;
• Education and literacy;
• Employment and working conditions;
• Social environments;
• Physical environments;
• Personal health practices;
• Healthy child development;
• Health care services; and
• Culture.
Life Expectancy at Birth (headline indicator)

Life expectancy is an indicator of how long a person can expect to live on average
given prevailing mortality rates. Technically, it is the average number of years of life
remaining to a person at a specified age, assuming current age-specific mortality
rates continue during the person's lifetime. In developed countries life expectancy
has increased significantly over the past century reflecting considerable falls in
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mortality rates, initially from infectious diseases and, in later years, from
cardiovascular disease.
Life expectancy focuses on the length of life rather than its quality, but it usefully
summarises the health of the population.
Question: What is the life expectancy of people living in the Torrid Zone? Are there
regional differences? How is it changing over time? Are there variations between the
male and female populations?
Rationale: Life expectancy is a common measure of population health and is often
used as a summary measure when comparing different populations.
Life expectancy at birth is one of the most widely used indicators of population
health. For example, high life expectancy indicates low infant and child mortality, an
ageing population, and a high quality of healthcare delivery. Life expectancy is also
used in public policy planning, especially as an indicator of future population ageing
in developed nations. Nonetheless, life expectancy is a measure of the length of life,
not the quality of life.
Source data: Work Bank World Development Indicators and UN Department of
Economic and Social Affairs.
Maternal Mortality (supplementary indicator)

Reproductive health care entails the provision of a comprehensive range of quality
services and information including maternal care. Poor maternal mortality outcomes
are often the consequence of neglect of women’s reproductive health, and constitute
a public health issue.
There are many reasons why women do not receive the care they need before,
during and after childbirth. Many pregnant women do not get it because there are no
services where they live, they cannot afford the services because they are too
expensive or reaching services is too costly. Some women do not use services
because they do not like how care is provided or because the health services are not
delivering high-quality care. Cultural beliefs or a woman’s low status in society can
also influence or preclude access to the necessary care.
Improving maternal health is the fifth of the United Nations' Millennium Development
Goals, with the maternal mortality ratio an indicator of progress.
Question: What are maternal mortality rates in the Torrid Zone? Are there regional
Rationale: At least 20% of the burden of disease in children below the age of five is
related to poor maternal health and nutrition, as well as quality of care at delivery
and during the newborn period. Newborns whose mother’s death is associated with
childbirth are 10 times more likely to die within two years of their mothers' death.
Access to skilled care during pregnancy, childbirth and the first month after delivery
are recognised as important to saving women's lives – and those of their children.
Maternal mortality rates are considered an indicator of the quality of care that
pregnant women receive
High incidence of maternal death is also a sign of inequity, reflecting the gap
between rich and poor.
Source data: World Development Indicators reports maternal mortality ratio
(modeled estimate, per 100,000 live births).
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Under-Five Mortality (supplementary indicator)
The mortality rate for children aged under five is a key indicator of the general health
and wellbeing of a population (AIHW, 2010). Under-five mortality rates are influenced
by factors such as access to sufficient prenatal care, maternal smoking, drug and
alcohol abuse, poor nutrition, stress, chronic illness or other medical problems.
Reducing child mortality is the fourth of the United Nations Millennium Development
Goals.
Question: What are under-five mortality rates in the Torrid Zone? Are there regional
Rationale: Changes in child mortality are a prime driver of changes in life
expectancy.
Source data: Work Bank World Development Indicators and UN Department of
Economic and Social Affairs.
Notified Cases of Malaria (supplementary indicator)

Malaria is a mosquito-borne infectious disease that is widespread in tropical and
subtropical regions including much of sub-Saharan Africa, Asia and the Americas.
Malaria is prevalent in these regions because of high rainfall, consistent high
temperatures, high humidity and the prevalence of stagnant waters in which larvae
mature.
Malaria is one of the most severe public health problems worldwide, and is a leading
cause of death and disease in many developing countries, especially among young
children and pregnant women (Centre for Disease Control 2010). The disease also
contributes greatly to anaemia among children — a major cause of poor growth and
development – and infection during pregnancy is associated with severe anaemia and
other illness which increase the risk of low birth weights, a leading risk factor for
infant mortality and sub-optimal growth and development.
In 2008 it is estimated there were up to 311 million cases of malaria, killing up to one
million people. Around 90% of malaria-related deaths occur in sub-Saharan Africa.
The disease is commonly associated with poverty, and can itself be a cause of
poverty and a major hindrance to economic development (Gollin et al, 2007).
Reducing the incidence of malaria is a component of the sixth United Nations
Millennium Development Goal.
Question: What is the incidence of malaria in the Torrid Zone? Are there regional
Rationale: Information on the incidence of malaria is required to determine the need
for preventative measures and/ or treatment interventions. Changes in disease
incidence can also be used to assess the performance of programs and identify
whether adjustments in the scale or mix of strategies is required.
Source data: Millennium Development Goals Indicator (MDGI) database prepared by
the UN. The MDG Indicators database does not report time series data, with only a
2008 data point.
Due to quality issues with reporting by some countries, the reported estimates are
based on the number of cases reported by a Ministry of Health adjusted to take into
account:
• Incompleteness in reporting systems;
• Patients seeking treatment in the private sector, self-medicating or not seeking
treatment at all; and
• Potential over-diagnosis through the lack of laboratory confirmation of cases.
44
Notified Cases of Dengue (supplementary indicator)
Dengue is a mosquito-borne infection that in recent decades has become a major
international public health concern. Dengue is found in tropical and sub-tropical
regions, predominantly in urban and semi-urban areas. Dengue viruses are
transmitted to humans through the bites of infective female Aedes mosquitoes, which
generally acquire the virus while feeding on the blood of an infected person.
Dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF), a potentially lethal complication, was first
recognised in the 1950s during dengue epidemics in the Philippines and Thailand.
Today DHF affects most Asian countries and has become a leading cause of
hospitalisation and death among children in the region.
There are four distinct, but closely related, viruses that cause dengue. Recovery from
infection by one provides lifelong immunity against that virus but confers only partial
and transient protection against subsequent infection by the other three viruses.
There is good evidence that sequential infection increases the risk of developing DHF.
The incidence of dengue has grown dramatically in recent decades and two fifths of
the world's population are considered to be at risk from dengue.
The disease is now endemic in more than 100 countries in Africa, the Americas, the
Eastern Mediterranean, South-east Asia and the Western Pacific. South-east Asia and
the Western Pacific are the most seriously affected. Before 1970 nine countries had
experienced DHF epidemics.
Not only is the number of cases increasing as the disease is spreading to new areas,
but explosive outbreaks are occurring. In 2007, Venezuela reported over 80,000
cases, including more than 6,000 cases of DHF.
The spread of dengue is attributed to expanding geographic distribution of the four
dengue viruses and their mosquito vectors, the most important of which is the
predominantly urban species Aedes aegypti. A rapid rise in urban mosquito
populations is bringing ever greater numbers of people into contact with this vector,
especially in areas that are favourable for mosquito breeding, e.g. where household
water storage is common and where solid waste disposal services are inadequate
There is no specific treatment for dengue, but appropriate medical care frequently
saves the lives of patients with the more serious DHF. The only way to prevent
dengue virus transmission is to combat the disease-carrying mosquitoes.
Question: What is the incidence of dengue in the Torrid Zone? Are there regional
Rationale: Information on the incidence of dengue is required to determine the need
for preventative measures and/ or treatment interventions and to understand how it
is spreading. Changes in disease incidence can also be used to assess the
performance of programs and identify whether adjustments in the scale or mix of
strategies is required.
Source data: World Health Organisation – DengueNet database.
Incidence of Tuberculosis (supplementary indicator)

Tuberculosis is a common and potentially lethal infectious disease caused by various
strains of mycobacteria. Tuberculosis usually attacks the lungs but can also affect
other parts of the body. It is spread through the air when people who have an active
infection cough, sneeze, or otherwise transmit their saliva through the air. Most
infections result in an asymptomatic, latent infection, with about 10% progressing
to the active disease. If left untreated the active disease kills more than 50% of its
victims.
Diagnosis relies on radiology (commonly chest X-rays), a tuberculin skin test, blood
tests, as well as microscopic examination and microbiological culture of bodily fluids.
45
Treatment is difficult and requires long courses of multiple antibiotics. Social contacts
are also screened and treated if necessary. Antibiotic resistance is a growing
problem. Prevention relies on screening programs and vaccination.
One third of the world's population is thought to be infected with tuberculosis. In
addition, more people in the developed world contract tuberculosis because their
immune systems are more likely to be compromised due to higher exposure to
immunosuppressive drugs, substance abuse, or AIDS.
Reducing the incidence of tuberculosis is a component of the sixth United Nations
Millennium Development Goal.
Question: What is the incidence of tuberculosis in the Torrid Zone? Are there regional
Rationale: Information on the incidence of tuberculosis is required to determine the
need for preventative measures and/ or treatment interventions. Changes in disease
incidence can also be used to assess the performance of programs and identify
whether adjustments in the scale or mix of strategies is required.
the UN. The MDGI reports time series data.
At the national level, estimates of tuberculosis incidence are based on “a consultative
and analytical process” led by WHO, and are derived using one or more of four
approaches, depending on the available data. Generating sub-national estimates that
are directly comparable will require a more detailed understanding of the WHO’s
methodology.
HIV Incidence Rate – 15 to 49 year olds (supplementary indicator)

Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) is a disease of the human immune
system caused by the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). This condition
progressively reduces the effectiveness of the immune system and leaves individuals
susceptible to opportunistic infection and disease.
HIV infects about 0.6% of the world's population, and in 2009 AIDS claimed an
estimated 1.8 million lives globally (down from a peak of 2.1 million in 2004).
Approximately 260,000 children died of AIDS in 2009. A disproportionate number of
AIDS deaths occur in sub-Saharan Africa, affecting economic growth and
exacerbating the burden of poverty. It is estimated that since the AIDS epidemic
began it has orphaned 14 million children in sub-Saharan Africa alone.
Treatment with antiretroviral drugs reduces both the mortality and morbidity of HIV
infection. Although antiretroviral medication is still not universally available,
expansion of antiretroviral therapy programs since 2004 has helped turn the tide of
AIDS deaths and new infections in many parts of the world. Intensified awareness
and preventive measures have also played a role. Nevertheless, an estimated 2.6
million people were newly infected in 2009.
The incidence rate is the number of new HIV infections in a population during a
certain time period. People who were infected before that time period are not
included in the total, even if they are still alive. For example in Sub-Saharan Africa
the incidence rate in 2009 was 0.4% meaning that four persons out of 1,000 got
newly infected during 2009.
Reducing the spread of HIV/ AIDS is a component of the sixth of the United Nations
Millennium Development Goals.
Question: What is the incidence of HIV in the Torrid Zone? Are there regional
Rationale: Information on the incidence of HIV is required to determine the need for
preventative measures and/ or treatment interventions and to understand its spread.
Changes in disease incidence can also be used to assess the performance of
46
programs and identify whether adjustments in the scale or mix of strategies is
required.
the UN reports the percentage of the 15 to 49 population with HIV. The MDGI reports
time series data.
Lifestyle Disease – Obesity (supplementary indicator)

Obesity is a medical condition in which excess body fat has accumulated to the
extent that it has an adverse effect on health and can contribute to reduced life
expectancy and/ or increased health problems.
Obesity increases the likelihood of various diseases, particularly heart disease, type 2
diabetes, obstructive sleep apnoea, certain types of cancer, and osteoarthritis. It is
most commonly caused by a combination of excessive food energy intake, lack of
physical activity and genetic susceptibility.
Obesity is a leading preventable cause of death worldwide, with increasing
prevalence in adults and children. As such, it is one of the most serious emerging
public health issues.
Body mass index (BMI), a measurement which compares weight and height, defines
people as overweight (pre-obese) if their BMI is between 25 and 30 kg/m2, and
obese when it is greater than 30 kg/m2.
Question: What is the incidence of obesity in the Torrid Zone? Are there regional
Rationale: Obesity is a leading preventable cause of death worldwide, especially in
developed countries, but also increasingly in many developing countries. Information
on the prevalence and distribution of obesity is useful in developing public health
programs.
Source data: World Health Organisation Global Infobase. National level data are
available for 2002, 2005 and 2010.

• Discuss range of emerging non-communicable/ lifestyle diseases, including in the
developing world.
Education
Education is universally acknowledged to benefit individuals and promote national

development. Access, duration, and quality are all critical variables in realising
educational benefits.
Lack of education is one of the many dimensions of poverty. Achieving universal
primary education is not only a Millennium Development Goal in itself, but also a
contributing factor to achieve other development goals, such as a reduced rate of
HIV/AIDS, better resource management, lower poverty and inequality and sustained
economic growth (Bruns et al, 2003).
Education and training help people to develop knowledge and skills that may be used
to enhance their own living standards and those of the broader community. For an
individual, educational attainment can be a key factor to gaining employment and a
rewarding career. For nations as a whole, having a skilled workforce is vital to
supporting ongoing economic development and improvements in living conditions.
People can obtain knowledge and skills in many different fields, and in many different
ways (e.g. formal and informal). Schools, providers of vocational education and
training and universities offer a broad range of courses, and workplaces provide a lot
of informal on-the-job training as well as formal training.
47
Although school enrolment has increased in many nations, low completion rates are
an issue and many children drop out before finishing the fifth grade. Research
suggests that a minimum five to six years of schooling is needed for the positive
effects of schooling to be realised. Therefore, improving school retention and
transition rates, in addition to school enrolment, is important (Bruns et al, 2003).
Mean Years of Schooling of Adults (headline indicator)

The importance of human capital, particularly attained through education, to
economic progress is well recognised. Barro and Lee (2011) suggest school
enrollment ratios or literacy rates do not adequately measure the aggregate stock of
human capital available in a society, and suggest that mean years of schooling is a
better indicator of the link between education, economic output and social outcomes.
Question: What is the mean years of schooling for adults aged 25 and over in the
Torrid Zone? Are there regional differences? How is it changing over time? Are there
links to economic output and improved social outcomes?
Rationale: Mean years of schooling are an indicator of the aggregate stock of human
capital available in an economy and society.
Source data: UNDP International Human Development Indicators, mean level of
schooling of adults aged 25 and older, in years. Time series data are available.
Data are primarily sourced from: Barro, R.J and J.-W. Lee. (2010). "A New Data Set
of Educational Attainment in the World, 1950-2010." NBER Working Paper No.
15902.
Youth Literacy
United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO) define
literacy as the "ability to identify, understand, interpret, create, communicate,
compute and use printed and written materials associated with varying contexts.
Literacy involves a continuum of learning in enabling individuals to achieve their
goals, to develop their knowledge and potential, and to participate fully in their
community and wider society."
Literacy is often measured through youth literacy (age group 15-24) and through
adult literacy (age group 15 and above). Youth literacy is a measure of the success of
education policy in terms of school coverage and learning achievement, and adult
literacy is an indicator of adults as citizens and productive members of society and
the workforce (Suso 2005).
Question: What are youth literacy rates in the Torrid Zone? Are there regional
Rationale: The percentage of literate youth is an indicator of the level of education in
a country, and is also an indicator of the future need for investments in education.
Youth literacy is a proxy indicator of primary school enrolment and completion rates.
Source data: World Bank World Development Indicators national level youth literacy
rate (percent of people aged 15 -24). Time series data are available.
48
Adult Literacy
Question: What are adult literacy rates in the Torrid Zone? Are there regional
Rationale: The ability to read and write is the basis for all other education. That is,
literacy is necessary for an individual to understand information, whether written or
verbal. Without literacy skills adults will struggle to take part in the world around
them and reach their potential as parents, community members and employees.
Adults with literacy skills are also more likely to raise children with literacy skills, and
to have greater capacity to keep themselves and their family healthy.
Source data: World Bank World Development Indicators national level adult literacy
rate (percent of people ages 15 and above). Time series data are available.

• Discuss broad social benefits associated with higher levels of education.
• Discuss the importance of children attending primary school.
• Case study of benefits of vocational education and training. (UNESCO TVET).
Work
A nation’s labour force consists of employed persons and those that are unemployed
and looking for work. That is people actively employed or seeking employment.
Labour force participation is the percentage of working age population that is in the
labour force.
Labour is one of the three inputs to economic activity (the other two being land and
capital). The labour force is the supply of labour available for economic activities, and
the participation rate reports the proportion of the total labour pool that is made
available for economic activities. Reasons why people are not in the labour force
include because they are students, retired, stay-at-home parents, in prisons or
similar institutions, as well as discouraged workers.
There are a number of criticisms regarding the collection and reporting of labour
statistics, including that under-employment is not routinely reported (i.e. under
reporting under-employment) and the definition of employment excludes unpaid
employment (i.e. underreporting employment).
Unemployment Rate (headline indicator)

Unemployment as defined by the International Labour Organization (ILO) occurs
when people are without jobs and they have actively sought work within the past
four weeks. The unemployment rate is a measure of the prevalence of
unemployment and measures unemployment as a percentage of the labour force.
Unemployment represents under-utilised economic resources. At an individual and
societal level, unemployment can have adverse impacts if large sections of the
population are unemployed, and especially if it is for extended periods of time. Long-
term unemployment is recognised as an important indicator of social exclusion. (The
World Bank reports long term unemployment data, but only for a very small number
of nations in the tropics).
Question: What are employment rates in the Torrid Zone? Are there characteristics
that are prevalent in the Torrid Zone?
Rationale: Employment and unemployment are a key economic and social indicators
of an individual’s well being, providing income and self actualization benefits. The
unemployment rate is an indicator of under-utilised assets in an economy and society
and, unlike employment, is directly comparable across nations.
49
Source data: World Bank World Development Indicators, unemployment, total
(percentage of total labour force). Time series data are available.

• Discuss individual and societal benefits of employment.
• Discuss women in the labour force and changes over time.
The Economy
An economy consists of the labour, capital and land resources that produce the goods
and services a society consumes. Economies tend to be unique, and are the result of
a process that involves its technological evolution, history and social organisation,
geography, natural resource endowment, and ecological factors. These factors give
context, content, and set the conditions and parameters in which an economy
functions.
Economic growth is typically associated with employment growth and improvements
in societal well being. Nonetheless, the impacts of economic growth on
environmental sustainability are increasingly recognised.
Economic growth is conventionally measured as the percentage change in gross
domestic product (GDP) or gross national product (GNP).
Economic Output
Gross Domestic Product per Capita (headline indicator)

Economic growth is generated in two forms: an economy can grow by using more
resources (such as physical, human, or natural capital), or by using the same
amount of resources more productively. When economic growth is achieved by using
more labour, it does not result in per capita income growth. But when economic
growth is achieved through the more productive use of all resources, including
labour, it results in higher per capita income and an improvement in average living
standards. Increasing productivity (or GDP per capita) is associated with economic
development.
Question: What is the value of per capita economic activity in the Torrid Zone? Are
there regional differences? How is it changing over time?
Rationale: GDP per capita is an indicative measure of income per capita.
Source data: World Bank World Development Indicators GDP per capita, PPP
(constant 2005 international dollars). Time series data are available.
PPP GDP is gross domestic product converted to international dollars using
purchasing power parity rates. An international dollar has the same purchasing
power over GDP as the U.S. dollar has in the United States.
Gross Private Capital Formation (supplementary indicator)

Gross private capital formation is a measure of private sector investment in a broad
range of asset classes, including fixed capital (including residential dwellings), plant
and equipment and intellectual property products. For fixed capital and plant and
equipment expenditure, the net impact of acquisitions of new or existing items less
disposals is reported.
Capital formation represents the forgoing of current consumption to invest in future
economic activity. The indicator reports additions to the existing private capital stock,
not the total stock of private sector capital in an economy. Theoretically, as existing
capital is ‘consumed’, some minimum level of investment is required for capital
replacement if the status quo of net capital stock is to be maintained.
50
Question: What are rates of private sector capital formation in Torrid Zone countries?
Are there regional differences? How is it changing over time?
Rationale: Gross private capital formation is an indicator of economic confidence and
the future productive capacity of an economy.
Source data: World Bank World Development Indicators, gross fixed capital
formation, private sector (percentage of GDP). Time series data are available.

• Discuss regional variations in GDP growth drivers.
International Trade and Investment
Exports of Goods and Services (headline indicator)

In national accounts ‘exports’ consist of transactions in goods and services from
residents to non-residents. Goods exports can be final goods, or materials that are
further processed prior to final consumption.
Exchange rates play a major role in a nation’s competitiveness in global markets.
Question: What is the value of goods and services exports? What are the major
exports? Is it changing over time? Are there regional differences?
Rationale: Exports provide an indication of a nation’s integration with the global
economy. Exports are an indicator of global demand for the commodities, goods and
services created in the economy.
Source data: World Bank World Development Indicators exports of goods and
services (percent of GDP). Time series data are available.
The World Bank provides more detailed time series information on the types of
imports/ exports if greater detail is required.
Imports of Goods and Services (supplementary indicator)

In national accounts ‘imports’ consist of transactions in goods and services from non-
residents to residents. Goods imports can be final goods, or materials that are
further processed prior to final consumption.
Exchange rates play a major role in a nation’s competitiveness in global markets.
Question: What is the value of goods and services imports? What are the major
imports? Is it changing over time? Are there regional differences?
Rationale: Imports provide an indication of a nation’s integration with the global
economy, and reflect a nation’s demand for commodities, goods and services from
other countries.
Source data: World Bank World Development Indicators imports of goods and
services (percent of GDP). Time series data are available.
The World Bank provides more detailed time series information on the types of
imports/ exports if greater detail is required.
Foreign Direct Investment (supplementary indicator)

Foreign direct investment (FDI) is a measure of foreign ownership of productive
assets, such as factories, mines and land. Foreign direct investment can be for the
creation of new capital or can involve the transfer of ownership of existing capital.
Technically, foreign direct investment is the net inflows of investment to acquire a
lasting management interest (10% or more of voting stock) in an enterprise
operating in an economy other than that of the investor.
51
There is general recognition that FDI can contribute to economic growth and poverty
reduction, but questions remain about how it should be regulated. Critics of foreign
investment suggest that it leads to dependent or restricted development. Supporters
suggest that foreign investment can bring capital and technology, develop skills and
linkages and increase employment and income.
Levels and rates of foreign investment can be used as a measure of the extent of
economic globalisation.
Question: What is the value of foreign direct investment in the Torrid Zone? Is it
changing over time? Are there regional differences?
Rationale: Foreign direct investment can contribute to developing a nation’s
productive capacity, and is a measure of the extent of economic globalisation.
Source data: World Bank World Development Indicators, foreign direct investment,
net (BOP, current US$). Time series data are available.

• Analysis of major regional exports and growth drivers.
• Discuss official development assistance (ODA) and its distribution.
Science and Technology
Research and Development Expenditure (headline indicator)

Innovation is one of the cornerstones of higher productivity and increased prosperity.
A major contributor to innovation is investment in research and development (R&D)
(Harris et al 2009).
Expenditures for research and development are current and capital expenditures on
creative work undertaken systematically to increase knowledge, including knowledge
of humanity, culture, and society, and the use of knowledge for new applications.
R&D covers basic research, applied research, and experimental development.
Question: What is the level of investment in research and development activities in
the Torrid Zone? Is it changing over time? Are there regional differences?
Rationale: Basic research, applied research and research and development activities
play an important role in the innovation process which develops the technologies that
bring new products and services to market or underpin better processes. These
activities support economic growth.
Source data: World Bank World Development Indicators, research and development
expenditure (% of GDP). Data sourced from UNESCO. Time series data are available.
The dataset has poor coverage in Africa, the Caribbean and Oceania.
Scientific and Technical Journal Articles (supplementary indicator)

Scientific and technical journal articles refer to the number of scientific and
engineering articles published in the fields of physics, biology, chemistry,
mathematics, clinical medicine, biomedical research, engineering and technology,
and earth and space sciences.
Articles in scientific and technical journals represent the latest theoretical research
and experimental results in their field. As such, the number of articles published is an
output indicator of research and technology activity being undertaken in an economy.
Research activity is primarily undertaken in developed economies that over time
have developed the breadth and depth of human capital and institutions to support
research activity. Research activity represents an investment in the future, whether it
is for environmental, social or economic purposes.
52
Question: How many scientific and technical journal articles are generated in the
nations of the Torrid Zone? Is it changing over time? Are there regional differences?
Rationale: Articles in scientific and technical journals represent the latest theoretical
research and experimental results in their field. As such, the number of articles
published is an output indicator of research and technology activity being undertaken
in an economy.
Source data: World Bank World Development Indicators, scientific and technical
journal articles. Time series data are available.
Science, Technology and Engineering Tertiary Graduates (supplementary indicator)

Graduates in these fields, in a general sense, represent inputs to the research,
development and innovation process. Not all graduates will be involved in these
activities, but they provide an indication of growth in the science, knowledge and
innovation capacity of an economy.
Question: What proportion of graduates in Torrid Zone nations are in science and
technology fields? Is it changing over time? Are there regional differences?
Rationale: Graduates in these fields provide an indication of growth in the science,
knowledge and innovation capacity of an economy.
Source data: UNESCO data centre. Will require some level of calculation, and should
be reported as a percentage of total graduates

• Discuss high technology exports from Torrid Zone regions (World Bank dataset
available).
Government
Government refers to legislators, administrators, and arbitrators in the administrative

bureaucracy who control a state at a given time, and to the system of government by
which they are organised. Government is the means by which state policy is
implemented, as well as a mechanism for determining the policy of the state.
Public Sector Debt Service Burden

Government debt is money owed by a central government. By contrast, the annual
‘government deficit’ refers to the difference between government receipts and
spending in a single year (i.e. the change in the level of debt over a particular year).
As the government largely draws its income from the population, government debt is
an indirect debt of the taxpayers. Government debt can be categorised as internal debt
(owed to lenders within the country) and external debt (owed to foreign lenders).
Governments usually borrow by issuing securities, government bonds and bills.
Sustainable debt is the level of debt which allows a debtor country to meet its
current and future debt service obligations without recourse to (further) debt relief or
rescheduling, while allowing an acceptable level of economic growth.
A broader definition of government debt considers all government liabilities, including
future pension payments and payments for goods and services the government has
contracted but not yet paid.
Total debt service is the sum of principal repayments and interest actually paid in
foreign currency, goods, or services on long-term debt, interest paid on short-term
debt and repayments (repurchases and charges) to the IMF.
53
Question: As a proportion of Gross National Income, what are government debt
servicing costs in nations of the Torrid Zone? How has it been changing? Are there
regional differences?
Rationale: As for individuals and businesses, governments may enter debt contracts
to finance activities. Low levels of debt are typically considered preferable to high
levels of debt, though what is critical is how funds are used and the capacity of the
government to repay the debt.
Debt servicing costs are linked to both the level of debt and the borrower’s risk
rating. Excessive build up of debt and a deteriorating risk assessment can lead to a
rapid rise in the cost of servicing debt. As the cost to service debt increases there is
the increased of fiscal contraction and/ or debt default.
Sustainable debt is the level of debt which allows a debtor country to meet its
current and future debt service obligations in full, without recourse to further debt
relief or rescheduling, avoiding accumulation of arrears, while allowing an acceptable
level of economic growth.
Source: World Bank World Development Indicators, public and publicly guaranteed
debt service (% of GNI). Time series data are available.

• Case study of a nation developing effective governance and institutional
frameworks.
Governance
Good governance and transparency are key elements to achieving sustainable

development outcomes, including better service delivery across sectors like health,
education, better management of natural resources and revenues, and more efficient
investment in infrastructure for growth – energy, water, roads etc. Good governance
assists to deliver improved outcomes as resources allocated to investment and
service delivery are fully deployed as intended.
Transparency is recognised as a cornerstone of good governance as it allows citizens
to hold institutions and governments accountable for their policies and performance,
and thus fosters trust and helps to minimise corruption.
Human Security
Human security is an emerging concept for understanding global vulnerabilities which

challenges the traditional notion of national security, and argues the proper referent
for security should be the individual, not the state. Human security holds that a people-
centered view of security is necessary for national, regional and global stability.
The concept emerged from a multi-disciplinary understanding of security involving a
number of research fields, including development studies, international relations,
strategic studies, and human rights. The UNDP’s 1994 Human Development Report is
considered a milestone publication in the field of human security, arguing that insuring
"freedom from want" and "freedom from fear" is the best path to tackle the problem of
global insecurity.
Refugees
A refugee is a person who:
• Seeks refuge owing to a fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion,
nationality, membership of a particular social group, or political opinion;
• Has fled from war or other violence in their home country;
• Seeks refuge outside the country of their nationality; and
54
• Is unable to or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail himself of the protection
of that country
A refugee is different from an asylum seeker in that a refugee brings documentation.
Question: How many refugees are from Torrid Zone nations? How has it been
changing? What are the major factors influencing changes?
Rationale: The number of residents fleeing a country for reasons of fear or
persecution is an indicator of the standard of governance and level of violence (or
risk of violence) in the society.
Source: UNDP Human Development Report, refugees by country of origin. Time
series data are available.

• Discuss the concept of environmental refugees as a result of natural disasters
and the impacts of climate change.
Crime, Corruption and Transparency
Crime – Homicide
Crime is the breach of laws for which some governing authority can prescribe a
conviction. Individual societies may define crime and crimes differently, in different
localities (state, local, international).
Crime takes many forms and can have a major impact on the wellbeing of victims,
their families and friends, and the wider community. Those affected may suffer
financially, physically, psychologically and emotionally, while the fear of crime can
affect people and restrict their lives in many ways. There are other costs as well,
including the provision of law enforcement services by the police, courts and
associated legal services, and corrective services.
Question: What is the number of homicides committed in Torrid Zone countries? Is it
Rationale: The homicide rate offers a longer term view of the prevalence of crime in
a society. While representing only a small fraction of overall crime, homicide is one
offence category for which generally consistent statistics are available, and it is also
a crime that does not often go unreported.
Source data: World Bank World Development Indicators, intentional homicides,
international police sources (per 100,000 people). Time series data are available.
Corruption
Corruption is the abuse of entrusted power for private gain and occurs in both the
public and private sectors. It tends to be more prevalent where the criminal justice
system and governance are weak, where decision-making is unaccountable, access
to decision-makers is dependent on restricted social networks, where pay is low and
where management controls are weak.
Question: What is the public perception of corruption in Torrid Zone countries? Is it
Rationale: Corruption affects all levels of society, but particularly the poor,
Corruption increases the price for public services, lowers its quality and often
restricts access to water, education, health care and many other key services. It also
distorts people’s relationships with and trust for public officials, the police and people
in authority who extort bribes from them.
55
Corruption also hurts the poor indirectly as it is an impediment to economic growth,
reinforces inequality, distorts public expenditure allocation and through many other
channels is an obstacle to poverty alleviation.
Source data: Transparency International, corruption perceptions index (CPI). Time
Gender Equality
Men and women are physically different but it is the social, economic, political and
legal interpretation of these differences that lead to inequality between them. Gender
equality refers to the equal valuing of the roles of women and men in society and
aims to overcome the barriers of stereotypes and prejudices so that both sexes are
able to equally contribute to and benefit from economic, social, cultural and political
developments. Healthy and educated women benefit their families, communities and
nations.
The equality of men and women has been accepted as a fundamental principle of
human rights since the adoption of the United Nations Charter in 1945.
Ratio of Female to Male Adults with at Least Secondary Education (headline indicator)
Education is universally acknowledged to benefit individuals and promote national
development. Educating females and males produces similar increases in their
subsequent earnings and expands future opportunities and choices for both boys and
girls. However, educating girls contributes to additional socio-economic gains that
benefit entire societies including delayed marriages, reduced fertility rates, and
improved health and survival rates for infants and children (MSI, 2008).
Considerable attention (and success) has been paid to improving access to, and
quality of, primary level education though there is some indication that secondary
level education may provide higher returns, especially for girls (Lloyd, 2005). In
addition to increased economic returns, female “schooling at the secondary level is
more consistently and strongly associated with increased decision-making and
mobility for women than schooling at the primary level” (Pande et al, 2005).
Recognising and responding to increased rates of return can help drive demand for
schooling as parents and students see the benefits of additional education.
Eliminating gender disparity in education is a component of the United Nations third
Millennium Development Goal to promote gender equality and empower women.
Question: What is the ratio of male to female adults with at least secondary
education? Is it changing over time? Are there regional differences?
Rationale: There is some indication that secondary education may provide higher
returns to society, especially for girls (Lloyd, 2005). In addition to increased
economic returns, female “schooling at the secondary level is more consistently and
strongly associated with increased decision-making and mobility for women than
schooling at the primary level” (Pande et al, 2005).
Source data: UNDP Human Development Report, population with at least secondary
education, female/ male ratio. Time series data are available.
Seats Held by Women in National Parliament (supplementary indicator)

One of the principles of democratic government is that parliament should represent
and express the will of the people. Civil society is seen by many to be more effective
if parliament is widely representative of the population. Since women make up
approximately half the population, their representation in parliament is seen as
crucial in a democratic society (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2010).
Although there are no legal barriers to women voting or standing for election in most
nations, significant challenges to women’s participation persist. This is borne out by
the reality that although women comprise more than 50% of the pool of those
56
eligible to stand for election in most countries, this proportion is not reflected in the
composition of decision-making bodies. In 2008, less than 18% of all legislators in
parliaments around the world were women – a long way off parity – though up from
12% in 1997.
Question: What is the proportion of seats held by women in national parliaments? Is
it changing over time? Are there regional differences?
Rationale: Relative to their proportion of the population, women tend to be
underrepresented in national parliaments. There is the risk that this may lead to a
large proportion of the population being inadequately represented in national decision
making. To address this imbalance many nations have, or are implementing,
strategies and policies to increase women’s participation in political processes.
Source data: World Bank World Development Indicators, proportion of seats held by
women in national parliaments (percent), sourced from Inter-Parliamentary Union.
Time series data are available.

• Case study of a nation that has successfully implemented policies to encourage
the participation of women in parliamentary processes.
Infrastructure
Infrastructure is the basic physical and organisational structures needed for a society
and economy to function. Infrastructural elements tend to be interconnected, and
include transport services (road, rail, air and port), water supply, sewers, energy
networks and telecommunications. Infrastructure can be provided by both the public
and private sectors.
Viewed functionally, infrastructure facilitates the production and distribution of goods
and services and the provision of basic social services such as schools and hospitals.
The adequate supply of infrastructure is essential for the effective delivery of
economic and social outcomes.
Gross Capital Formation (headline indicator)

Gross capital formation consists of private and public sector outlays on additions to
the fixed assets of the economy plus net changes in the level of inventories. Fixed
assets include land improvements; plant, machinery, and equipment purchases; and
the construction of roads, railways, schools, offices, hospitals, private residential
dwellings, and commercial and industrial buildings. Inventories are stocks of goods
held by firms to meet temporary or unexpected fluctuations in production or sales,
and ‘work in progress’.
Gross capital formation is a component of the expenditure on GDP and reports how
much of new value added in the economy is invested rather than consumed.
Gross capital formation is called ‘gross’ because it does not make any adjustments to
deduct the consumption of fixed capital (depreciation of fixed assets) from the
investment figures.
Fluctuations in gross capital formation are an indicator of future business activity,
business confidence and the pattern of economic growth. In times of economic
uncertainty or recession business investment in fixed assets is often delayed or
reduced as it ties up additional capital for a long interval of time, with a risk that it
will not pay itself off (and fixed assets may therefore also be scrapped faster).
Conversely, in times of robust economic growth fixed investment tends to increase as
it is more likely that an investment will be profitable.
57
Question: What proportion of economic output is invested in future productive
capacity? Is it changing over time? Are there regional differences?
Rationale: Gross capital formation reports the value/ proportion of demand in an
economy that is invested rather than consumed. That is, it represents the level of
investment in future social and economic productive capacity in a society.
The indicator does not report the existing stock of capital in an economy, ongoing
underinvestment is likely to have longer term environmental, social and economic
consequences.
Source data: World Bank World Development Indicators, gross capital formation
(percent of GDP). Time series data are available.
Improved Water Source (supplementary indicator)

Access to social infrastructure such as an improved water source can have significant
impacts on a community, most notably with respect to health outcomes.
Question: What proportion of the population has access to an improved water
source? Does it vary markedly across rural and urban populations? Is it changing?
Rationale: A clean water supply, especially with regard to sewage, is considered the
single most important determinant of public health. Improved water sources
dramatically improve water’s micro-biological and physico-chemical characteristics.
Source data: World Development Indicators, improved water source – percent of
population with access (World Health Organization and United Nations Children's
Fund, Joint Measurement Program). Also reported at urban/ rural level.
Improved Sanitation Facilities (supplementary indicator)

Sanitation refers to the provision of facilities and services for the safe disposal of
human wastes, including through services such as garbage collection and wastewater
disposal. That is, sanitation promotes health through prevention of human contact
with the hazards of wastes.
Hazards can be physical, microbiological, biological or chemical agents of disease.
Wastes that can cause health problems include human and animal faeces, solid
wastes, domestic wastewater (sewage, greywater etc), industrial wastes and
agricultural wastes. Hygienic means of prevention can be via engineering solutions
(e.g. sewerage and wastewater treatment), simple technologies (e.g. latrines, septic
tanks) and personal hygiene practices.
Question: What proportion of the population has access to improved sanitation
facilities? Does it vary markedly across rural and urban populations? Is it changing?
Rationale: Inadequate sanitation is a major cause of disease. Improving sanitation is
known to have a significant beneficial impact on household and community health.
Source data: World Development Indicators, improved sanitation facilities – percent
of population with access (World Health Organization and United Nations Children's
Fund, Joint Measurement Program). Also reported at urban/ rural level.
Air Transport Passengers (supplementary indicator)

Air transport infrastructure delivers critical social and economic benefits and air
transport passengers are an indicator of a nation’s integration with the global
economy. Unlike road transport (where increases in demand may lead to congestion
rather than additional investment) increases in air passenger movements tend to be
associated with the provision of additional and/ or improved infrastructure.
Question: How many air passengers are transported in the Torrid Zone? Is it
changing?
58
Rationale: Changes in the number of air passengers is an indicator of investment in
air transport infrastructure.
Source data: World Development Indicators, air transport, passengers carried. Time

• Case study detailing benefits of improved water and sanitation infrastructure.
Information Technology and Communications
Technologies such as the internet, personal computers and wireless telephony now
make the world an increasingly interconnected network of individuals, firms and
governments interacting through a variety of channels.
Increasingly powerful, affordable and convenient information and communication
technologies (ICTs) have fundamentally changed opportunities for economic and
social development, and are accessible in many parts of the world which historically
lagged in technology adoption. This accessibility allows developing nations to achieve
significant, shared and sustained gains from the use of ICT.
For example, the penetration of mobile phone networks is significantly greater than
older fixed telephone networks and offer communications to previously unconnected
regions. Mobile communications in remote and rural areas also provides a powerful
platform for development of business, health and education applications not previously
available. ICT is seen as an enabling technology, and its innovative use contributes to
progress against a broad range of other indicators (United Nations 2011).
Mobile Phone Subscriptions (headline indicator)

Question: How many mobile phone subscriptions are there in the Torrid Zone? What
is the rate of change? Are there regional differences?
Rationale: Mobile phone subscriptions per capita are an indicator of the mobile
technology penetration. Greater penetration suggests a greater capacity to deliver
the benefits discussed above.
Source data: World Development Indicators, mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100
people). Time series data are available.
Fixed Broadband Internet Subscribers (supplementary indicator)

Broadband internet access is a high data rate connection to the internet, typically
contrasted with slow dial-up access. Dial-up services are limited in terms of download
speeds and require the dedicated use of a telephone line. Broadband technologies
supply a significantly faster rate without disrupting telephone use.
Various minimum bandwidths have been used in definitions of broadband, though the
trend is to raise the threshold as the marketplace introduces faster services. The
United States Federal Communications Commission in 2010 defines ‘basic broadband’
as data download speeds of at least four megabits per second.
Rationale: Broadband penetration is increasingly recognised as an indicator of social
and economic development.
Source data: World Development Indicators, fixed broadband internet subscribers
(per 100 people). Time series data are available.
59
Internet Users (supplementary indicator)
The ongoing convergence of mobile telephony and internet services combined with
increased competition is making the internet increasingly accessible and affordable.
Question: What is the penetration and use of internet services in the Torrid Zone?
How is it changing over time? Are there regional differences?
Rationale: Connection to the internet enables access to myriad applications and
services. Increased bandwidth and convergence benefits enable a greater range of
options for internet connection and communication and data benefits.
Source data: World Development Indicators, internet users (per 100 people). Time

• Case study detailing benefits in rural areas of access to mobile networks.
• Discuss technology convergence and implications.
60

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Project Overview

2.1 Regionalising the Torrid Zone

2.2 Nations and territories to include

A two stage process is undertaken to assess which nations are to be reported – a

2.2.1 Population based assessment

2.2.2 Data based assessment

2.2.3 Reporting at the sub-national level

2.3 Conceptual framework for the Report

2.4 Indicators to measure ‘progress’

Incidence of tuberculosis (rate) Supplementary

Air transport passengers Supplementary

2.5 Data sources

2.6 Design of the Report

Measures of Australia’s Progress (MAP) and Global Environment Outlook 4 (GEO4)

2.7 Focus of analysis

Table A1: Nations/ Territories in the Torrid Zone

Figure B1: Conceptual Framework

Figure B2: Linkages Between Eco and Human Systems

What is the trend in the level of carbon dioxide emissions?

Inland Water domain

What is the level of organic pollutants in water? Is it increasing or decreasing?

What is the extent of primary forests? Are there regional differences?

What proportion of the population is urban? What is its rate of growth?

What are trends in mean years of schooling?

Economic Growth dimension

How significant are the economies of the Torrid Zone?

International Trade and Investment dimension

What is the value of exports and imports of goods and services?

Science and Technology dimension

As a percentage of GDP, what is expenditure on research and development activities?

Government Debt dimension

Crime and Corruption dimension

What is the homicide rate? Is it increasing or decreasing?

Gender Equality dimesnion

Human Security dimension

As a percentage of GDP, what is public sector capital formation?

What proportion of the population subscribe to mobile telephone/ data services?

Progress in each system

Carbon Dioxide Emissions (lead indicator)

Fossil Fuels as a Proportion of Total Primary Energy Supply (supplementary indicator)

Energy Use per Dollar of GDP (supplementary indicator)

This measure provides an indication of an economy’s energy intensity or energy

• Case study of impacts of global warming in the tropics.

Land Degradation (headline indicator)

Agricultural Land (supplementary indicator)

Break Out Box(es) and discussion issues

• Case study of water erosion (extent and measures to constrain).

Organic Water Pollution (headline indicator)

Renewable Water Resources

Fresh water is a renewable resource, but can be difficult to purify, is expensive to

Break Out Box(es) and discussion issues

• Discuss changes in freshwater withdrawals over time including per capita.

Wild Marine Catch (supplementary indicator)

Aquaculture Production (supplementary indicator)

Aquaculture is the farming of aquatic organisms such as fish, crustaceans, molluscs

Break Out Box(es) and discussion issues

• Case study of the impacts of overfishing on the environment and local

Terrestrial and Marine Protected Areas Indicator (supplementary indicator)

Break Out Box(es) and discussion issues

• Discuss the importance of tropical biodiversity.

Societies are groups of people connected through persistent relations, or may be

The World Bank defines poverty as pronounced deprivation in well-being. One

Population Below $1.25 (PPP) per day (headline indicator)