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Department Of Computer Science

T.Y.B.Sc Project Semester-V
Code:-USCSP503

Name:- Pranav Padhiyar Rollno:- 92

Project Title: - Time Series Analysis (Weather Forecasting)

Abstract :-

Any forecast can be termed as an indicator of what is likely to happen in a specified future
time frame in a particular field. Therefore, Weather forecasting is the application of science and
technology to predict the conditions of the atmosphere for a given location and time.
Weather forecasting is the attempt by meteorologists to predict the weather conditions at
some future time and the weather conditions that may be expected. The climatic condition
parameters are based on the temperature, wind, humidity, rainfall and size of data set. Here, the
parameters temperature and Humidity only are considered for experimental analysis. The data is
collected from the temperature and humidity sensor called DHT11 sensor, which helps in detecting
the temperature and humidity values of a particular region or location. The raspberry pi is used for
storing the collected data to the cloud, with the help of Ethernet shield for uploading the data
online. The data stored in cloud is generated in the form of CSV, JSON, XML files which is used
for further analysis. The correlation analysis of the parameters helps in predicting the future values.
The ARIMA model that gives better results for time-series data is used for predicting the values
for forthcoming.

Objectives :-

 To set the sales target – The primary purpose of sales forecasting is to establish sales
performance goals for the organization. To get the real and accurate picture of sales,
forecasting should be first made for small region and then for large territories.
 To maintain inventory – An accurate sales forecasting helps in estimating the amount
of raw materials required for future goals. It helps in keeping the inventory up for peak
periods.
  To regulate manpower requirement – Appropriate manpower is required for continuous
production. A good manpower policy is needed to prevent the shortage of manpower.
 To decide plant capacity – On the basis of sales forecasting the organization can plan
the plant with output of desired capacity.
 To predict expenses – It helps in predicting the expenses and planning budget. It is also
useful in preparing credit policy of the company. It is also required for uninterrupted
supply of input resources.

Preliminary Investigation

Description of system :-

Sales Forecasting is the projection of customer demand for the goods and services over a
period of time. In other words, it is the process that involves the estimation of sales in a physical
unit that a company expects within a plan period. A sales forecast predicts what a salesperson,
team, or company will sell weekly, monthly, quarterly, or annually. Managers use reps' sales
forecasts to estimate business their team will close. Directors use team forecasts to anticipate
department sales. The VP of Sales uses department forecasts to project organization sales.

Sales forecasting gives insight into how a company should manage its workforce, cash
flow, and resources. In addition to helping a company allocate its internal resources effectively,
predictive sales data is important for businesses when looking to acquire investment capital.The
purpose of sales forecasting is to provide information that you can use to make intelligent business
decisions.

For example, if your forecast indicates a 30% increase in sales of products or services you
may wish to begin searching for larger business premises and/or hire additional staff to meet the
demand. Conversely, a forecast of shortfalls in sales can allow you to mitigate the effect by taking
advance measures such as reducing expenses or reorienting your marketing efforts.

Limitations of present system:-

 Poor Sales Planning :-

When an organization doesn’t go for sales forecasting, they can’t plan their future activities.
Assuming that each of them has a quota to fill, forecasting is the tool that helps them identify the
customers to meet their objectives.
  Lower OTIF Delivery :-

With accurate sales forecasting, you can’t achieve a higher rate of on time in full, or OTIF,
delivery. The information from sales forecasts guarantees that sufficient product will be
manufactured or ordered to service customers on a timely basis, resulting in happier customers and
fewer complaints.

 Poor Inventory Controls :-

The less accurate the sales forecast, the less prepared your company will be to manage its
inventory, providing both overstock and stock-out situations. Instable inventory also means poor
management of your production.

 Poor Financial Planning :-

Anticipating sales gives you the information you need to predict revenue and profit. Having poor
forecasting information at your disposal takes away the ability to explore possibilities to increase
both revenue and net income.

 Price Instability :-

With poor forecasting, the levels of inventories that you maintain will lead to panic sales. Sales
may be managed on a thoughtful planned basis.

Proposed System and it’s Advantages: -

 The name of the proposed system is futurebullsconsultancy.com

 It helps to determine production volumes considering availability of facilities, like
equipment, capital, manpower, space etc.
 It forms a basis of sales budget, production budget natural budget etc.
 It helps in taking decision about the plant expansion and changes in production mix or
should it divert its resource for manufacturing other products.
 It helps in deciding policies.
 It facilitates in deciding the extent of advertising etc.
 The sales forecast is a commitment on the part of the sales department and it must be
achieved during the given period.
 Sales forecast helps in preparing production and purchasing schedules.
 Accurate sales forecasting is a very good aid for the purpose of decision making.
  It helps in guiding marketing, production and other business activities for achieving these
targets.

Feasibility Study:-

 Operational feasibility-
Operational feasibility refers to the measure of solving problems with the help of a new
proposed system. The users will be required to have knowledge about the ins and outs of the sales
forecasting software. The current manual sales forecasting is proposed to be overcome by the
software, thus avoiding human errors.

 Economic Feasibility -
Generally, it means whether a business or a project feasible cost wise and logistically. This
project will provide economic feasibility by automating the process of forecasting and thus
reducing human resources.

 Technical Feasibility -
Technical feasibility study is the complete study of the project in terms of input,
processes, output, fields, programs and procedures. The end users are required to have a
hardware with general configurations.

Stakeholders:-

The major source of income by providing Sales forecasting services are:-

 Business Companies(Clients) - They share upto 40% of the annual profit made by the
providers.
 Angel Investors - Hardware, Software and other costs are covered by these angel
investors.
 State Government - The rules given by the State Government have to be followed in the
establishment of the company
 Stock Market Investors - They will invest in the company on the basis of company’s
growth

Technologies used:-
 ● Core :- The application will made in Python using modules like panda. Extra components
will be added using R.
● Database: - SQLite database will be used to store and extract data from database.
● HTML & CSS :- These technologies will be used to create and control all the layout of
all the webpages.
● AJAX :- AJAX will be used for handling asynchronous page requests in the website.
● JavaScript :- JavaScript will be used for handling the behaviour of pages.

System Analysis-1

Fact Finding Techniques :-

Companies use sales forecasting to predict business performance in the coming quarters. It is
a helpful tool for budgeting and setting expectations for the C-Suite. An accurate sales forecast
allows a company to gauge the interest in their products. Increased sales mean a higher demand
for their products.

It helps companies plan their supply to meet the increased demand. It helps CFOs to plan the
financial growth of the company. With a real sales forecast, it allows them to accurately budget
the coming months and year. Forecasting helps public companies when setting projections for the
next quarter.

Meeting the predefined goal from the start of the quarter can have a positive impact on stock
prices and investor perceptions. Inversely, failing to meet the forecasted goal can significantly hurt
stock prices. Sales forecasting helps marketers, too. If the forecast shows a coming dip in sales,
marketers can adapt by creating promotions that drive more business.

The following questions should be asked before starting business with a company:-

1. Give me a brief about your product.

2. Since how many years you are in this field?
3. Do you have data of your product’s sales of last 10 years?
4. What you expect from us?
5. What is your goals in next 5 years?
6. Tell me about your team management system.
7. In which capability you can generate your product?
8. In which state or city your product sale is high?
9. In which city do you want to market your product?
 10. Which marketing techniques do you use?
11. Do you have any investor?
12. What are your number of transactions per week, per month, per year?
13. Your motive behind product sale?
14. Which strategies have failed for you in the past?

15. Why is your organization even buying?

16. What’s the need, and how does it align to your organization’s goals?

17. What urgency is driving it now?

18. Do you have a budget established?

19. Who influences the purchasing decision? (Get names and roles.)

Prototype :-

 Align the sales process with your customer’s buying process -

The buying process is different for every organization, but what’s important is to develop an
understanding of your specific customer’s journey and ensure that your sales process mirrors that
buyer.
My main point is that unless the sales process reflects the buyer’s reality, the stages assigned to
your pipeline and forecast won’t provide consistent win/loss/no decision percentages by stage.

 Define each stage of the sales process -

Every buyer needs to go through a series of stages from prospect to customer, and those stages
must be clearly defined. we sketched out a six-stage process that began with prospect qualification
and ended with contract negotiation.

1. Details

Are we just slapping a label on those pipeline stages, or are we providing a detailed definition?
Each stage can mean different things to different people. Unless the definition is spelled out in a
way that requires you to accomplish a series of objectives before you can move the prospect to the
next stage, the data in your system and the input from your team won’t add up to a coherent and
trustworthy story. If you define each stage as a step, you’re not going deep enough; each stage
should be broken down into a series of steps or a checklist. Only after that checklist is complete
can the prospect move to the next stage. Much of the value of these steps is not in the actions you
take. Rather, it’s how they help you learn more about WHY the prospect will buy.
Many software companies start a sale with a demo of the product - WRONG. In the first phase,
you should ask as many sales qualification questions as possible before you show the product. It’s
a tricky dance because you do not want to irritate the prospect, but you have needs, too, and your
time is equally as important as the buyer’s.

2. Outcomes

Every stage in our pipeline should have an outcome assigned to it, whether that means the buyer
progresses successfully to the next stage, is reinserted into an earlier stage or is removed from the
system as a “no decision.” When stages don’t culminate in a decisive outcome, buyers get stuck
in places they no longer belong, which inflates the numbers and throws off the sales forecast.

For example, if a prospect stalls, move them back to the stage where the initial questions were
likely discussed and ask them again. Remember, we are driving toward a sales forecast, so if a
prospect sits in a more advanced stage, but in reality, they should not be there, then the forecast is
inaccurate. The role of sales manager is critical here to ensure that all prospects are in their
appropriate stages.

“Once the sales team learns “gut feel” isn’t acceptable and adhering to the process earns praise
and drives results, your pipeline will course-correct and start generating credible data.”

 Train your sales team.

Defining each stage in the sales pipeline is one thing. Adhering to those stages is another. Without
discipline and accountability across the sales team, the most well-defined pipeline won’t produce
reliable sales data.

Every salesperson needs to learn the stages of the pipeline, understand their potential outcomes,
and be disciplined about checking the boxes before progressing the customer to the next phase.
Salespeople are natural optimists, and they’ll always believe the sale is imminent. But while
moving a lead from one stage to the next in the CRM may create impressive reporting numbers in
the short term, it won’t actually bring you closer to the sale.

The sales team needs to understand that unless they confirm that the prospect has checked the
boxes for that phase—setting aside budget, going through the internal approvals process and
articulating why they are buying, for example—that lead stays put. Once the sales team learns that
“gut feel” isn’t acceptable and that adhering to the process earns them praise and drives results,
your pipeline will course-correct and start generating credible data.

 Analyze the pipeline.

Now that we have a well-defined process and a well-trained sales team, we are ready to begin
forecasting by collecting and analyzing six key data points. However, forecasting with confidence
takes time. Many organizations base their forecasts on the data collected over a period of time
equivalent to the average sales cycle, but that won’t yield results with enough statistical relevance.
Planning to collect data over a period roughly 2.5 times as long as your average sales cycle.
For example, if it takes 3 months for a customer to progress from first stage to close, wait for at
least 7.5 months of pipeline data to accumulate; if it’s an 8-month sales cycle, collect the data for
20 months. That doesn’t mean you can’t run a forecast until then—of course you’ll need to start
looking ahead sooner than that—but the point is that your forecast will be more accurate when you
have been tracking it consistently for 20 months.

Once you have enough historical data, the final stage of the sales forecast process is to use these
six data points to predict your revenue:

 Win rates by stage. Calculate the percentage of buyers at each stage of the sales cycle who
ended up deciding against a purchase (“no decision”), going to a competitor (“loss”) or
becoming a customer (“win”). This enables you to look at the number of buyers in the sales
cycle and forecast the number of sales you can expect to close.
 Sales cycle. Determine the average duration from first interaction to close. This enables
you to cross-reference with the percentage of anticipated “wins” in each stage and
determine how soon you can expect to see those sales come through.
 Bookings target (annual). Look at the total number of bookings you expected to make for
the year. This enables you to compare the forecast to the goal and see whether you’re on
track to attain it.
 Average contract value (annual). Calculate the average contract value per deal. This
enables you to determine how much revenue the organization can expect to see from those
sales.
 Total closed bookings (annual). Consider the bookings you’ve closed year to date.
 Months remaining. This is a simple but critical part of the equation, because you need to
be able to see how much time you have left until year end and compare that variable to the
number of deals in the pipeline and the anticipated time-to-close on each of those deals by
stage.
Use Case Diagram :-

 LOAD Sales Data – Client will provide us the data and we will load it in our software and
wrangle, clean the data
 ADD/DELETE Product – To add or delete client provided past sales data
 GENERATE Budget – Once the analysis is done, the budget is generated accordingly
 UPDATE Budget – After discussing the facts and figures with the client, the budget is
updated accordingly
Event Table :-

Sr Event Trigger Source User Case Response Destination

No. Activity

1. Client provides Past Data Client Wrangle and - -

past sales data clean the
data
2. Client provides Seasonal Client Look for - -
seasonal sales Data data and
data update data
3. Client provides User Data Client Add new - -
user details user details
4. Client provides User Data Client Look for - -
change in user user data
details and update
data
5. Client provides Transactional Client Create new - -
transactional Data transactional
details records and
generate
forecast
6. Client provides Transactional Client Update - -
change in Data transactional
transactional record
details

ER Diagram :-
Activity Diagram :-

1.Transaction Activity
2.Sales Activity

Sales

3.Stock Activity