M233 Lesson 2

ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS
Lesson 2. Probability
Topics:
1. Sample Space
2. Counting Rules Useful in Probability
3. Rules of Probability
2.1 Sample Space
If we measure the current in a thin wire, we are conducting an experiment. However, in

a day-to-day repetitions of the measurement the results can differ slightly because of small
variations in variables that are not controlled in our experiment, including changes in ambient
temperatures, slight variations in gauge and small impurities in the chemical composition of the
wire if different locations are selected, and current source drifts. These variations are always
present no matter how carefully the experiment is designed and conducted. The figure illustrates
a model that allows for variations in the output of a system.
Controlled variable
Input Output
SYSTEM
Noise Variable
Definition:
An experiment that can result in different outcomes, even though it is repeated in the
same manner, is called random experiment.
To model and analyze a random experiment, we must understand the set of possible
outcomes
Definition:
The set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment is called the sample space of
the experiment denoted by the symbol S.
Example 1:
The set of numbers that lie between 80 and 100 inclusive:
𝑆 = {80, 81, 82. ⋯ , 99, 100}
It might be convenient to define the sample space as:
𝑆 = {𝑥|𝑥 𝑖𝑠 𝑎 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑙𝑖𝑒 𝑏𝑒𝑡𝑤𝑒𝑒𝑛 80 𝑎𝑛𝑑 100}
Galvez Handout M233-Lesson 2 AY 2019-2020

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Definition:
A sample space is discrete if it consists of a finite or countable infinite set of outcomes. A
sample space is continuous if it contains an interval (either finite or infinite) of real numbers.
Example 2:l
If the objective of the analysis is to consider only whether or not a particular part
conforms to the manufacturing specifications, the sample space might be simplified to the set of
two outcomes as: 𝑆 = {𝑦𝑒𝑠, 𝑛𝑜}.
Illustration:
If the objective of the analysis is to consider only whether or not the parts conform to the
manufacturing specifications, either part may or may not conform. The sample space can be
represented by the four outcomes as follows: 𝑆 = {𝑦𝑦, 𝑦𝑛, 𝑛𝑦, 𝑛𝑛}.
Example 3:
If we are only interested in the number of conforming parts in the sample, the set
statement required is: 𝑆 = {0,1,2}.
Example 4:
In random experiment in which items are selected from a batch, we will indicate whether
or not a selected item is replaced before the next one is selected. If the batch consists of 3 items
(a, b, c) and our experiment is to select 2 items without replacement, the sample space can be
represented as: 𝑆 = {𝑎𝑏, 𝑎𝑐, 𝑏𝑎, 𝑏𝑐, 𝑐𝑎, 𝑐𝑏}.
Example 5:
If all items are replaced before the next one is selected (the sampling is referred to as with
replacement): 𝑆 = {𝑎𝑎, 𝑎𝑏, 𝑎𝑐, 𝑏𝑎, 𝑏𝑏, 𝑏𝑐, 𝑐𝑎, 𝑐𝑏, 𝑐𝑐}.
Counting outcomes using the Tree Diagram
Tree diagrams display all the possible outcomes of an event. Each branch in a tree diagram
represents a possible outcome. It can be used to find the number of possible outcomes an
calculate the probability of possible outcomes.
Example 6:
Each message in a digital communication system is classified as to whether it is received
within the time specified by the system design. If 3 messages are classified, use a tree diagram to
represent the sample space of possible outcomes:

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Event
Definition:
An event is a subset of the sample space of a random experiment.
Because events are subsets, we can use basic set operations such as unions,
intersections, and complements to form other events of interest.
1. Union – the union of two events is the event that consists of all outcomes that are
contained in either of the two events. We denote the union as,
𝐴∪𝐵
2. Intersection – the intersection of two events is the event that consists of all outcomes
that are contained in both of the two events. We denote the intersection as,
𝐴∩𝐵
3. Complement – the complement of an event in a sample space is the set of outcomes

in the sample space that are not in the event. We denote the complement of the
event A to A’. Also, the complement of a complement is, (𝐴′ ) = 𝐴
Venn Diagram
Venn diagram portray relationships between sets; also, used to describe relationships
between events.
a) b) c)

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Example 7:
Consider the sample S = {yy, yn, ny, nn}. Suppose that the set of all outcomes for which
at least one part is devoted as E1, then 𝐸1 = {𝑦𝑦, 𝑦𝑛, 𝑛𝑦};
The event in which both parts do not conform, denoted as E2, contain only the single
outcome 𝐸2 = {𝑛𝑛};
When the sample set is empty, referred to as null set, 𝐸3 = ∅;
If E4 = S, the sample space is, 𝐸4 = {𝑦𝑦, 𝑦𝑛, 𝑛𝑦, 𝑛𝑛};
If the set E5 contains the following elements, 𝐸5 = {𝑦𝑛, 𝑛𝑦, 𝑛𝑛};
then, 𝐸1 ∪ 𝐸5 = 𝐸4 = 𝑆, and 𝐸1 ∩ 𝐸5 = {𝑦𝑛, 𝑛𝑦}; also, 𝐸 ′ = {𝑛𝑛}.
Statement Rule
Measurements of the time needed to complete a chemical reaction might be modeled
with the sample space, 𝑆 = 𝑅 + , 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑒𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑠
Given, 𝐸1 = {𝑥|1 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 10)}, and 𝐸2 = {𝑥|3 < 𝑥 < 118}
then, 𝐸1 ∪ 𝐸2 = {𝑥|1 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 118}
and, 𝐸1 ∩ 𝐸2 = {𝑥|3 < 𝑥 < 10}
also, 𝐸1′ = {𝑥|𝑥 > 10}, and 𝐸1′ ∩ 𝐸2 = {𝑥|10 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 118}.
Example 8:
Samples of polycarbonate plastic are analyzed for scratch and shock resistance. The
results from 50 samples are summarized as follows:
Shock Resistance
High Low
Scratch High 40 4
Resistance Low 1 5
Let,
A denote the event that a sample has high shock resistance
B denote the event that a sample has high scratch resistance
Determine the following:

a) 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵; ℎ𝑖𝑔ℎ 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵;
b) 𝐴′ ; 𝑙𝑜𝑤 𝑠ℎ𝑜𝑐𝑘;
c) 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵
Solution:

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A
H L
H 40 4
B
L 1 5
a) 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 40
b) 𝐴′ = 4
c) 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = 45
Definition:
Two events, denoted by E1 and E2 are mutually exclusive when, 𝐸1 ∩ 𝐸2 = ∅. This
means that A and B are mutually exclusive events such that if A occurs then B is excluded or
if B occurs then A is excluded, in other words, A and B cannot occur together.
E1 E2
Mutually Exclusive Events
Distributive Law for set Operations
The distributive law for set operations implies that: (𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) ∩ 𝐶 = (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) ∪ (𝐵 ∩ 𝐶),

and (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) ∪ 𝐶 = (𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) ∩ (𝐵 ∪ 𝐶).
De Morgan’s Laws imply that: (𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)′ = 𝐴′ ∩ 𝐵′ , and (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)′ = 𝐴′ ∪ 𝐵′ also,

𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝐵 ∩ 𝐴, and 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = 𝐵 ∪ 𝐴.
Rules of Probability
Probability is used to quantify the likelihood, or chance than an outcome of a random

experiment will occur. The probability of an outcome can be interpreted as a subjective
probability, or degree of belief, that the outcome will occur. Probabilities for a random
experiment are often assigned on the basis of a reasonable model of a system under study. One
approach is to base probability assignment on the simple concept of equally likely outcomes is
assumed, the probabilities are chosen to be equal.
Definition:

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Whenever a sample space consists of N possible outcomes that are equally likely, the
probability of such outcome is 1/N.
Example 9:
Assume that 30% of the laser diodes in a batch of 100 meet the minimum power
requirements of a specific customer. If a laser diode is equally likely to be selected, our intuitive
feeling is that the probability of meeting the customer’s requirements is:
Let E denote the subset of 30 diodes that meet the customer’s requirements; E contains
30 outcomes and each outcome has probability 0.01, the Probability of E (or P(E)) = 0.3.
Definition:
For a distinct sample space, the probability of an event E, denoted P(E), equals the sum
of the probabilities of the outcome in E.
Example 10:
A random experiment can result in one of the outcomes {a, b, c, d} with probabilities
0.1, 0.3, 0.5, and 0.1, respectively. Let A denote the event {a, b}, B the event {b, c, d}, and C the
event {d}. Then,
P(A) = 0.1 + 0.3 = 0.4
P(B) = 0.3 + 0.5 + 0.1 = 0.9
P(C) = 0.5
Also,
P(A’) = 0.6; because P(a)+P(b)+P(c)+P(d) = 0.1 + 0.3 + 0.5 + 0.1 = 1.0
Similarly, P(A’) = 1 - P(A) = 1 – 0.4 = 0.6
Also, P(C’) = 1 – P(C) = 1 – 0.5 = 0.5
Furthermore, 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = {𝑎, 𝑏} ∩ {𝑏, 𝑐, 𝑑} = {𝑏} = 0.3
Also, 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = {𝑎, 𝑏} ∪ {𝑏, 𝑐, 𝑑} = {𝑎, 𝑏, 𝑐, 𝑑} = 1.0
And, 𝐴 ∩ 𝐶 = {𝑎, 𝑏} ∩ {𝑑} = ∅
Then, 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐶) = 0
Example 11:
A visual inspection of a location o wafers from a semiconductor manufacturing process
resulted in the following table:
Number of
Properties of Wafers
Contamination Particles
0 0.40
1 0.20

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2 0.15
3 0.10
4 0.05
5 or more 0.10
If one wafer is selected randomly from this process and the location is inspected, what is
the probability that it contains no particles? What is the probability that a wafer contains 3 or
more particles in the inspected location?
Solution:
(a) From the information given above, and denoting as E the event that there is no
particle in the inspected location on the wafer.
E(0) = 0.40
(b) Also, let E denotes the event that the wafer contains 3 or more particles in the
inspected location, then
E(3,4,5 or more) = 0.1 + 0.05 + 0.1 = 0.25
Additional illustrations of set operation:

Provide a reasonable description of the sample space for each of the random experiments in
Problems 1 and 2. There can be more than one acceptable interpretation of each experiment.
Describe any assumptions you make.
1. Each of 3 machined parts is classified as either above or below the target specification for the
part.
Let,
a = above the target specification for the part
b = below the target specification
then,
S = {aaa, aab, aba, abb, baa, bab, bba, bbb}
2. A scale that displays two decimal places is used to measure material fields in a chemical plant.
S = {x|x is a scale that displays 2 decimal places}
Exercise:
1. Orders of a computer are summarized by the optional features that are requested as follows:
Proportion of Orders
No optional feature 0.3
One optional feature 0.5
More than one optional feature 0.2
(a) What is the probability that an order requests at least one optional feature?
(b) What is the probability that an order does not request more than one optional feature?

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2. Suppose your vehicle is licensed in a state (USA) that issues license plates that consists of 3
digits (between 0 and 9) followed by the 3 letters (between A to Z). If a license number is
selected randomly, what is the probability that yours is the one selected?
3. Disks of polycarbonate plastics from a supplier are analyzed for scratch and shock
measurements. The results from 100 disks are summarized as follows:
Shock Resistance
High Low
Scratch High 70 9
Resistance Low 16 5
Let A denote the event that a disk has high shock resistance, and let B denote the event that a
disk has high scratch resistance. If a disk is selected at random, determine:
a) P(A) b) P(B)
c) P(A’) d) P(Intersection of A and B)
e) P(Union of A and B) f) P(Union A and B)
Axioms of Probability
The axioms do not determine probability. They enable us to easily calculate the
probabilities of some events from knowledge of the probabilities of other events. Probability is a
number that is assigned to each number of collection of events from a random experiment that
satisfies the following properties:
1) 𝑃(𝑆) = 1
This is a consequence of the fact that an outcome from the sample space occurs on every trial of
an experiment.
2) 0 ≤ 𝑃(𝐸) ≤ 1
This is equivalent to the requirement that a relative frequency must be between 0 and 1.
3) For the events E1 and E2 with 𝐸1 ∩ 𝐸2 = ∅
This implies that 𝑃(𝐸1 ∪ 𝐸2 ) = 𝑃(𝐸1 ) + 𝑃(𝐸2 ) if the events E1 and E2 have no outcomes in
common, the relative frequency of outcomes in 𝐸1 ∪ 𝐸2 is the relative frequencies of the
outcomes in E1 and E2. These axioms imply the following results: P(Ø) = 0, and for the event E
P(E’) = 1-P(E)
Exercise:
4. A sample preparation for a chemical measurement is completed correctly by 25% of the
laboratory technicians, completed with a minor error by 70% and completed with a major
error by 5%.

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(a) If a technician is selected randomly to complete the preparation, what is the probability it
is completed without error?
(b) What is the probability that it is completed with either a minor or a major error?
Addition Rule
Joint events are generated by applying basic set operations to individual events. This
section focuses on union of events.
Example 12:
The table below lists the history of 940 wafers in a semiconductor manufacturing process.
Suppose one wafer is selected at random. Let H denote the event that the wafer contains high
levels of contamination. The table presents the wafer classification by contamination and
location.
Location by Sputtering
Contamination Center Edge Total
Low 514 68 582
High 112 246 358
Total 626 314 940
Then, the probability that the wafer contains high levels of contamination is
358
𝑃(𝐻) =
940
Let C denote the event that the wafer is in the center of a sputtering tool, then
626
𝑃(𝐶) =
940
Also, the probability that the wafer is from the center of the sputtering tool and
contains high levels of contamination is expressed as,
112
𝑃(𝐻 ∩ 𝐶) =
940
On the other, the event that the wafer is from the center of the sputtering tool, or contains high
levels of contamination (or both) is,
872
𝑃(𝐻 ∪ 𝐶) = 940 , or
𝑃(𝐻 ∪ 𝐶) = 𝑃(𝐻) + 𝑃(𝐶) − 𝑃(𝐻 ∩ 𝐶)
358 626 112 872
= 940 + 940 − 940 = 940
The preceding example illustrates that the probability of A or B is interpreted as and that
the following general addition rule applies.
Example 13:
Given, the proportion of wafers in each category (see table below). What is the probability
that a wafer was either at the edge or that it contains four or more particles?

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Number of
Contamination Center Edge Total
Particles
0 0.03 0.10 0.40
1 0.15 0.05 0.20
2 0.10 0.05 0.15
3 0.06 0.04 0.10
4 0.04 0.10 0.05
5 or more 0.07 0.03 0.10
Total 0.72 0.28 1.00
(a) What is the probability that a wafer was either at the edge or that it contains four or more
particles?
Let E1 denote the event that a wafer contains four or more particles, and let E2 denote the
event that a wafer is at the edge; the required probability is.
𝑃(𝐸1 ∪ 𝐸2 ) = 𝑃(𝐸1 ) + 𝑃(𝐸2 ) − 𝑃(𝐸1 ∩ 𝐸2 )
Since, 𝑃(𝐸1 ) = 0.15 and 𝑃(𝐸2 ) = 0.28, also 𝑃(𝐸1 ∩ 𝐸2 ) = 0.04
Then, 𝑃(𝐸1 ∪ 𝐸2 ) = 0.15 + 0.28 − 0.04 = 0.39
(b) What is the probability that a wafer was either at the edge or that it contains more than four
particles?
Let E1 denote the event that a wafer contains less than two particles, and let E2 denote
the event that a wafer is both from the edge and contains more than four particles.
Since, 𝑃(𝐸1 ) = 0.60 and 𝑃(𝐸2 ) = 0.03, also 𝑃(𝐸1 ∩ 𝐸2 ) = 0 because there no wafers in
the intersection of E1 and E2.
Then, 𝑃(𝐸1 ∪ 𝐸2 ) = 0.60 + 0.03 − 0 = 0.63
Mutually Exclusive
If A and B are mutually exclusive events, then, 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵), provided that
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = ∅.
3 or more events
More complicated probabilities such as 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ∪ 𝐶) can be determined as follows:
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ∪ 𝐶) = 𝑃[(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) ∪ 𝐶] = 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐶) − 𝑃[(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) ∩ 𝐶], this can be expanded

as:

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𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ∪ 𝐶)
= 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐶) − 𝑃[(𝐴 ∩ 𝐶) ∪ (𝐵 ∩ 𝐶)]
= 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐶) − [𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐶) + 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐶) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶)]
Finally,
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ∪ 𝐶)
= 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐶) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐶) − 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐶) + 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶).
In general, a collection of events 𝐸1 , 𝐸2 , ⋯ , 𝐸𝑘 is said to be mutually exclusive if all pairs

𝐸1 ∩ 𝐸2 = ∅. For a collection of mutually exclusive events,
𝑃(𝐸1 ∪ 𝐸2 ∪ ⋯ ∪ 𝐸𝑘 ) = 𝑃(𝐸1 ) + 𝑃(𝐸2 ) + ⋯ + 𝑃(𝐸𝑘 )
Exercise 5:
Samples of emission from 3 suppliers are classified for conformance to air-quality
specifications. The results from 100 samples are summarized as follows:
Conforms
Yes No
1 22 8
Supplier 2 25 5
3 30 10
Let A denote the event that a sample is from supplier, and let B denote the event that a sample
conforms to specification. If a sample is selected at random, determine the following probabilities:
𝑎) 𝑃(𝐴) 𝑏) 𝑃(𝐵)
𝑐) 𝑃(𝐴′ ) 𝑑) 𝑃(∩ 𝐵)
𝑒) 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) 𝑓) 𝑃(𝐴′ ∪ 𝐵′ )
Conditional Probability
Definition:
The conditional probability of an event B given an event A, denoted as 𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴) is,
𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)/𝑃(𝐴), for 𝑃(𝐴) > 0.

This can be understood in a special case in which all outcomes of a random experiment are
equally likely. If there are n outcomes:
𝑃(𝐴) = (𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠)/𝑛; also,
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = (𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)/𝑛; consequently,
𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵) 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝐴∩𝐵

𝑃(𝐴)
= 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝐴

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Example 14:
The table below provides an example of 400 parts classified by surface flaws and as
(functionally) defective.
Surface Flaw
Yes No Total (D)
Yes 10 18 28
Defective No 30 342 372
Total (F) 40 360 400
The tree diagram is shown below:
a) The parts with surface flaws (40 parts) the number defective I’s 10 is,
𝑃(𝐷 ∪ 𝐹) 10⁄400 10
𝑃(𝐷⁄𝐹 ) = = = = 0.25
𝑃(𝐹) 40⁄400 40
b) The parts without surface flaws (360 parts) the number defective is 28’
𝑃(𝐷 ∪ 𝐹′) 18⁄400 18

𝑃(𝐷⁄𝐹′) = = = = 0.05
𝑃(𝐹′) 360⁄400 360
Furthermore,
40 28
𝑃(𝐹) = 400 ; 𝑃(𝐷) = 400
10
𝑃(𝐹 ⁄𝐷) = 28 ; 𝑃(𝐷⁄𝐹) = 10⁄40

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Exercise 6.
The analysis of shafts for a compressor is summarized by conformance to specification.
Roundness Conforms
Yes No
Surface Finish Yes 345 5
Conforms No 12 8
a) If we know that a shaft conforms to roundness requirements, what is the probability

that it conforms to surface finish requirements?
b) If we know that a shaft does not conform to roundness requirements, what is the
probability that it conforms to surface finish requirements?
Exercise 7.
A maintenance firm has gathered the following information regarding the failure
mechanisms for air conditioning systems:
Evidence of Leaks
Yes No
Evidence of Yes 55 17
Electrical Failure No 32 3
The units without evidence of gas leaks or electrical failure showed other types of failure. If this
is a representative sample of air conditioning failure, find the probability that:
a) Failure involves a gas leak;
b) There is evidence of electrical failure given that there was a gas leak;
c) There is evidence of gas leak given that there is evidence of electrical failure.
Multiplication and Total Probability Rules
a) Multiplication Rule
The definition of conditional probability can be rewritten to provide a general expression
for the probability of the intersection of the events. This formula is referred to as a multiplication
rule.
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴)𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐴⁄𝐵)𝑃(𝐵)
Example 15:
The probability that an automobile battery subject to a high engine compartment
temperature suffers low charging current of 0.7. The probability that a battery is subject to high
engine compartment temperature is 0.05.
Let C denote the event that a battery suffers low charging current, and let T denote the
event that a battery is subject to high engine compartment temperature. The probability that a
battery is subject to low charging current and high engine compartment temperature is:
𝑃(𝐶 ∩ 𝑇) = 𝑃(𝐶 ⁄𝑇)𝑃(𝑇) =0.7 x 0.05=0.035
b) Total Probability

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The multiplication rule is useful for determining the probability of an event that depends
on other events. The probability of the union of mutually exclusive events [𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) +
𝑃(𝐵)], and the multiplication rule [𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴)𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐴⁄𝐵)𝑃(𝐵)], the following
total probability rule is obtained:
(i) Total Probability Rule ( 2 Events)
For any events A and B
𝑃(𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐴′ ) = 𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴)𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴′)𝑃(𝐴′)
(ii) Total Probability Rule (Multiple Events)
Assume 𝐸1 , 𝐸2 , ⋯ , 𝐸𝑘 are k mutually exclusive and exhaustive sets, then
𝑃(𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐸1 ) + 𝑃𝐵 ∩ 𝐸2 ) + ⋯ + 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐸𝑘 )

= 𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐸1 )𝑃(𝐸1 ) + 𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐸2 )𝑃(𝐸2 ) + ⋯ + 𝑃(𝐵 ⁄𝐸𝑘 )𝑃(𝐸𝑘 )
Example 17: (2 events)

Let F denote the event that the product fails and let H denote the event that the chip is
exposed to high level of contamination. The requested probability is 𝑃(𝐹), and the information
provided can be represented as:
𝑃(𝐹 ⁄𝐻) = 0.10
This is the probability that a chip is subjected to high levels of contamination during
manufacturing causes a product failure;
𝑃(𝐹 ⁄𝐻′) = 0.005

This is the probability that a chi that is no subjected to high contamination levels during
manufacturing causes a product failure;
𝑃(𝐻) = 0.20
This is the production run, 20% of the chips are subject to high levels of contamination; and,
𝑃(𝐻 ′ ) = 0.80
Then,
𝑃(𝐹) = 0.10(0.20) + 0.005(0.80) = 0.0235
Which can be interpreted as just the weighted average of two probabilities of failure.
Example 18: (Multiple Events)

Continuing with the semiconductor manufacturing example, assume the following
probabilities for product failure subject to levels of contamination in manufacturing:
Probability of Failure Level of Contamination

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0.10 High
0.01 Medium
0.001 Low
In particular production run, 20% of the chips are subjected to high levels of contamination, 30%
to medium levels of contamination, and 50% to low levels of contamination. What is the
probability that a product using are of these chips fails?
Solution:
Let H denote the event that a chip is exposed to high levels of contamination, M denotes
the event that a chip is exposed to medium levels of contamination, and L denotes the event that
a chip is exposed to low levels of contamination. Then,
𝑃(𝐹) = 𝑃(𝐹 ⁄𝐻 )𝑃(𝐻) + 𝑃(𝐹 ⁄𝑀)𝑃(𝑀) + 𝑃(𝐹 ⁄𝐿)𝑃(𝐿)

= 0.1(0.20) + 0.01(0.30) + 0.001(0.5) = 0.0235
Exercise 8:
Suppose that 𝑃(𝐴⁄𝐵) = 0.2, 𝑃(𝐴⁄𝐵′) = 0.3, & 𝑃(𝐵) = 0.8. What is 𝑃(𝐴)?
Exercise 9:
The edge roughness of slit paper products increases as knife blades wear. Only 1% of
products slit with new blades have rough edges, 3% of products slit with blades of average
sharpness exhibit roughness, and 5% of products slit with worn blades exhibit roughness. If 25%
of the blades in manufacturing are new, 60% are of average sharpness, and 15% are worn, what
is the proportion of products that exhibit edge roughness?
Exercise 10:
If incoming callas to a customer service center are classified as complaints (75% of calls)
or requests for information (25% of calls). Of the complaints, 40% deal with computer equipment
that does not respond and 57% deal with incomplete software installation, and in the remaining
3% of complaints the user has improperly followed the instructions. The requests for information
are evenly divided on technical questions (50%) and requests to purchase more products (50%).
(a) What is the probability that an incoming call to the customer service center will be from a
customer who has not followed installation instructions properly? (b) Find the probability that an
incoming call is a request for purchasing more products.
Independence
In some cases, the conditional probability of 𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴) might be equal to 𝑃(𝐵). In this
special case, knowledge that the outcomes of the experiment is in event A does not affect the
probability that the outcome is in event B.
Definition:
Two events are independent if any one of the following equivalent statements is true:

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1. 𝑃(𝐴⁄𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴);
2. 𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐵);
3. 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐵).
Example 19:
Suppose a day’s production of 850 manufactured parts contains 50 parts that do not meet
customer requirements. Suppose two parts are selected from batch, but the first part is replaced
before the second part is selected; the probability that the second part is defective (denoted as
B) given that the first part is defective (denoted as A) can be determined as follows:
The probability needed can be expressed as 𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴). Since the first part is replaced prior
to selecting the second part, the batch still contains 850 parts, of which 50 are defective.
Therefore, the probability of B does not depend on whether or not the first part was defective,
that is, 𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴) = 50⁄850. Also, the probability that both parts are defective is,
50 50
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴)𝑃(𝐴) = ∙ = 0.00346.
850 850
Illustration:
The table below provides information that relate surface flaws to functionally defective
parts.
Surface Flaws
Yes (Event F) No Total
Yes (event D) 2 18 20
Defective No 38 342 380
Total 40 360 400
The information above are similar to the conditional probability illustration. It may be
recalled that for that case, 𝑃(𝐷⁄𝐹 ) = 10⁄40 = 0.25 and 𝑃(𝐷) = 28⁄400 = 0.07. Suppose that
the situation is different and the above information prevails, then
2 20
𝑃(𝐷⁄𝐹 ) = 40 = 0.05, and 𝑃(𝐷) = 40 = 0.05.
That is, the probability that the part is defective does not depend on whether it has surface
flaws. Also,
2 40
𝑃(𝐹 ⁄𝐷 ) = 20 = 0.10, and 𝑃(𝐹) = 400 = 0.10
So, the probability of the surface flaw foes not depend on whether the part is defective.
Furthermore, the definition of conditional probability implies that 𝑃(𝐹 ∩ 𝐷) = 𝑃(𝐷⁄𝐹)𝑃(𝐹), but
in the special case of this problem:
2 2 1
𝑃(𝐹 ∩ 𝐷) = 𝑃(𝐷)𝑃(𝐹) = 40 ∙ 20 = 200 .
The preceding illustrations concludes that, in the special case that 𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐵), we obtain
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴)𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐵)𝑃(𝐴).

And,
𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵) 𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐵)
𝑃(𝐴⁄𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐵)
= 𝑃(𝐵)
= 𝑃(𝐴).
Similarly,
𝑃(𝐴′ ∩ 𝐵′ ) = 𝑃(𝐴′ )𝑃(𝐵′ ).
Example 20:

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A day’s production of 850 manufactured parts contains 50 parts that do not meet
customer requirements. Two parts are selected at random, without replacement, from the batch.
Let A denote the event that the first is defective, and let B denote the event that the second part
is defective. We suspect that these two events are not independent because knowing that the
first part is defective suggests that it is less likely that the second part selected is defective. Indeed,
49
𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴) = .
849
The 𝑃(𝐵), the unconditional probability, is somewhat different because the possible values of the
first selection need to be considered, that is,
𝑃(𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴)𝑃 ∗) + 𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴′)𝑃(𝐴′)

49 50 50 800 50
= (849) (850) + (849) (850) = 850
The above illustration can be inferred as follows: Interestingly, 𝑃(𝐵) - the unconditional
probability that the second part selected is defective, without any knowledge of the first part, is
the same as the probability that the first part selected is defective. Yet, our goal is to assess
independence. Because 𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴) does not equal 𝑃(𝐵), the two events are not independent, as
we suspected.
Considering 3 or more events
Definition:
The events 𝐸1 , 𝐸2 , ⋯ , 𝐸𝑛 are independent if and only if for any subset of these events
𝐸𝑖1 , 𝐸𝑖2 , ⋯ , 𝐸𝑖𝑘 ,
𝑃(𝐸𝑖1 ∩ 𝐸𝑖2 ∩ ⋯ ∩ 𝐸𝑖𝑘 ) = 𝑃(𝐸𝑖1 )𝑥𝑃(𝐸𝑖2 )𝑥 ⋯ 𝑥𝑃(𝐸𝑖𝑘 ).
Example 21:
The following circuit operates only if there is a path of functional devices from left to
right. The probability that each device functions is show on the graph. Assume that the devices
fail independently. What is the probability that the circuit operates?
Solution:
Let T and B denote the events that the top and bottom devices operate, respectively.
There is a path of at least one device operate. The probability that the circuit operates is:
𝑃(𝑇 𝑜𝑟 𝐵) = 1 − 𝑃[𝑇 𝑜𝑟 𝐵)′]

= 1 − 𝑃(𝑇 ′ 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵′ )
Note:
OR means Addition 𝑎𝑙𝑠𝑜, 𝑃(𝑇 ∪ 𝐵);
AND means Multiplication 𝑎𝑙𝑠𝑜, 𝑃(𝑇 ∩ 𝐵)

21
A simple formula for the solution can be derived from the complements T’ and B’. From
the independence assumption;
𝑃(𝑇 ′ 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵′ ) = 𝑃(𝑇 ′ )𝑃(𝐵′ ) =
= (1 − 0.95)(1 − 0.95) = 0.052
Therefore,
𝑃(𝑇 𝑜𝑟 𝐵) = 1 − 0.052 = 0.9975
Example 22:
The following circuit operates only if there is a path of functional device from left to
right. The probability that each device functions is shown on the graph. Assume that devices fail
independently. What is the probability that the circuit operates?
Solution:
The solution can be obtained from a partition of the graph into 3 columns as shown:
LEFT MIDDLE RIGHT
=
The probability that there is a path of functional devices only through the 3 units on the left can
be determined from the independence in a manner similar to the preceding example, that is,
𝑃(𝐿𝑒𝑓𝑡) = 1 − (1 − 0.9)3 = 1 − (0.1)3 = 0.999.
Similarly, the probability that there is a path of functional devices only through the two units in
the middle is,
𝑃(𝑀𝑖𝑑𝑑𝑙𝑒) = 1 − 0.052 = 0.9975.
And, the probability that there is a path of functional devices only through the one unit on the
right is 𝑃(𝑅𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑡) = 0.99.
Therefore, with the independence assumption used again, the solution is:
𝑃(𝐿𝑒𝑓𝑡)𝑃(𝑀𝑖𝑑𝑑𝑙𝑒)𝑃(𝑅𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑡) = (0.999)(0.9975)(0.99) = 0.987.

22
Example 23:
Monica pulls an ace from a deck of 52 playing cards. She does not replace the card. What
is the probability of pulling out a second ace?
Solution:
4 3
1st Draw: , 2nd Draw:
52 51
Since it does not require replacement after the first draw, it can be noticed from the second draw
that there are 3 aces 51 cards left. This is an example of a dependent event – the probability of
the second draw has been affected by the first draw.
Exercise 8:
a) Simplify 𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐶)
b) Simplify 𝑃(𝐵 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐶 𝐺𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝐴)
Bayes’ Theorem
Bayes’ theorem is a deceptively simple mathematical formula used to calculate

conditional probability. It provides a way to revise existing predictions or theories (update
probabilities) given new or additional evidence.
Recalling the definition of conditional probability:
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴⁄𝐵)𝑃(𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴)𝑃(𝐴),
Now, considering the second and last term
𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴)𝑃(𝐴)
𝑃(𝐴⁄𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐵)
, 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑃(𝐵) > 0.
This is the useful result that enables us to solve for:
𝑃(𝐴⁄𝐵) 𝑖𝑛 𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑚𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴).
In most cases, you cannot just plug numbers into an equation. You have to figure out
what your “tests” and “events” are first. For two events, A and B, Bayes’ theorem allows you to
figure out 𝑃(𝐴⁄𝐵)(the probability that event A happened, given that test B was positive) from
𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴) (the probability that test B happened, given that event A happened). It can be a little
tricky to wrap your head around as technically you are working backwards; you may have to
switch your tests and events around, which can get confusing. Illustrations should clarify what I
mean by “switch the tests and events around.”
Example 24:
You might be interested in finding out a patient’s probability of having liver disease if he
is an alcoholic. “Being an alcoholic” is the test (kind of like a litmus test) for liver disease:

23
a) A could mean the event “Patient has liver disease.” Say, 10% of patients entering your
clinic have liver disease, 𝑃(𝐴) = 0.10;
b) B could mean the litmus test that “Patient is an alcoholic.” Also, 5% of the clinic’s
patients are alcoholics, 𝑃(𝐵) = 0.05;
c) You might also know that among those patients diagnosed with liver disease, 7% are
alcoholics, this is your 𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴) − the probability that a patient is alcoholic, given that
they have liver disease, is 7%.
Therefore,
0.7 𝑥 0.10
𝑃(𝐴⁄𝐵) = = 0.14
0.05
Example 25:
For instance, we might know one conditional probability but would like to calculate a
different one as in that example about the semiconductor chip contamination problem (see total
probability above). We might as the following: If the semiconductor chips in the product fails,
what is the probability that the chip was exposed to high levels of contamination? We can answer
the question posed as follows:
The probability requested can be expressed as 𝑃(𝐻⁄𝐹).
𝑃(𝐹 ⁄𝐻 )𝑃(𝐻) (0.10)(0.20)

𝑃(𝐻⁄𝐹) = = = 0.85
𝑃(𝐹) 0.0235
This answer s similar to the answer of that sample about multiplication rule.
Bayes’ theorem, therefore, can be defined as:
𝐼𝑓 𝐸1 , 𝐸2 , ⋯ , 𝐸𝑘 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑘 𝑚𝑢𝑡𝑢𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑦 𝑒𝑥𝑐𝑙𝑢𝑠𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑒𝑥ℎ𝑎𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵 𝑖𝑠 𝑎𝑛𝑦 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡;
then,
𝑃(𝐵|𝐸1 )𝑃(𝐸1 )
𝑃(𝐸1 |𝐵) = , 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑃(𝐵) > 0.
𝑃(𝐵|𝐸1 )𝑃(𝐸1 ) + 𝑃(𝐵|𝐸1 )𝑃(𝐸1 ) + ⋯ + 𝑃(𝐵|𝐸𝑘 )𝑃(𝑘)
Example 26:
A man has three identical jewelry boxes, each with two identical drawers. In the first box
both drawers contain gold watches. In the second box both drawers contain silver watches. In the
third box one drawer contains a gold watch, and the other drawer contains a silver watch. The
man wants to wear a gold watch. If he selects a box at random, opens a drawer at random, and
finds a silver watch, what is the probability that the other drawer in that box contains a gold
watch?
Solution:
Let the following represent type of metal the watches in the boxes are made of: G- Gold
and S – Silver. If the selected box contains both a silver watch and a gold watch, it must be Box 3.
Then, we need to calculate the probability that the man chose Box 3 on condition that he found
a silver watch, 𝑃(𝐵3|𝑆) , where B3 stands for Box 3 and similar notations apply for other boxes.
Box 1 Box 2 Box 3
2G 2S 1G/1S

24
We start with a tree diagram and apply conditional probabilities along the tree.
Solving the following:
𝑃(𝑆 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝑆|𝐵𝑖 )𝑃(𝐵𝑖 ), 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑖 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑏𝑜𝑥 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑖 = 1, 2, 3

And,
𝑃(𝐺 ∩ 𝐵𝑖 ) = 𝑃(𝐺|𝐵𝑖 )𝑃(𝐵𝑖 )
So we have,
Bi P(S|Bi) P(G|Bi)
1 1/3 x 0 1/3 x 1
2 1/3 x 1 1/3 x 0
3 1/3 x 1/2 1/3 x 1/2
Total 1/2 1/2
Finally,
𝑃(𝐵3 ∩ 𝑆) 1/6 1
𝑃(𝐵3 |𝑆) = = =
𝑃(𝑆) 1/2 3
1
And the probability that the other drawer contains gold watch is 3 .
Exercise 9:
A fair six-sided die is tossed twice. What is the probability that a five will occur at least
once?
a) Show your solution considering all possibilities using a tree diagram;
b) Using conditional probability;
c) Using addition rule.

25
Counting Techniques
The preceding topics concerned with the classical approach to assigning probability to
and event and involved determining the number of elements in the event and the sample space.
There are many situations in which it would be too difficult and/or too tedious to list all of the
possible outcomes in a sample space. For this matter, specific counting techniques help count the
number of elements in a sample space without actually having to identify the specific outcomes.
These are multiplication rule, permutations and combinations.
1. Multiplication Rule for Counting Technique
If an operation can be described as a sequence of k steps, and if the number of ways of

completing step 1 is n1, and if the number of ways of completing step 2 is n2 for each way of
completing step 1, and if the number of ways of completing step 3 is n3 for each way of completing
step 2, and so forth, the total number of ways of completing the operation is,
𝑛1 𝑥 𝑛2 𝑥 ⋯ 𝑥 𝑛𝑘
Example 27:
You take a multiple choice test made up of 10 questions. Each question has 4 possible
answers. How many different ways are there to answer the test (assuming “do not leave a
question blank” policy is imposed)?
Solution:
4 𝑥 4 𝑥 4 𝑥 4 𝑥 4 𝑥 4 𝑥 4 𝑥 4 𝑥 4 𝑥 4 = 1048576 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠
Example 28:
A company puts a code on each different product they sell. The code is made up of 3
numbers and 2 letters. How many different codes are possible?
Solution:
Each code has 3 numbers combines with 2 letters. The 3 numbers will be selected from 0
-9 (10 numbers) and it is possible that they are similar; the letters will be selected from a to z (26
letter) and it is also possible that they are similar, therefore,
10 𝑥 10 𝑥 10 𝑥 26 𝑥 26 = 676000 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑑𝑒𝑠
Example 29:
In the design of a casing of a gear housing, we can use four different types of fasteners,
three different bolt lengths, and 3 different bolt locations. How many different designs are
possible?
Solution:
Let n1 = 4; n2 = 3; n3 = 3
Therefore,
𝑛1 𝑥 𝑛2 𝑥 𝑛3 = 4 𝑥 3 𝑥 3 = 36 𝑑𝑖𝑓𝑓𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑑𝑒𝑠𝑖𝑔𝑛𝑠 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒

26
The Factorial Notation:
In a sequence of events, the total possible number of ways all events can performed is
the product of the possible number of ways each individual event can be performed. The product
of every whole number from 1 to n is called factorials, denoted as n!, that is
n! = n (n-1) (n-2) ... (3)(2)(1)
with special case, 0! = 1.

Permutations
Definition:
The number of permutations of n different elements is 𝑛! where,
𝑛! = 𝑛(𝑛 − 1)(𝑛 − 2) ⋯ (2)(1)
The definition of permutations show that it is an ordered sequence of the elements. In

some situations, we are interested in the number of arrangements of only some of the elements
of a set.
Definition:
The number of permutations of a subset of r elements selected from a set of n different
elements is,
𝑛!
𝑃𝑟𝑛 = nPr =
(𝑛 − 1)!
Illustration:
Suppose we go to an ice cream shop that offers 15 flavors. If we want to layer 3 scoops of
different flavors on an ice cream cone, how many arrangements are possible?
Solution:
𝑛 = 15 𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝑐𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑚
𝑟 = 3 𝑙𝑎𝑦𝑒𝑟𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑐𝑜𝑜𝑝 𝑜𝑓 𝑑𝑖𝑓𝑓𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑠
15! 15 14 13 (12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1)
𝑃315 = = = 15 𝑥 14 𝑥 13 = 2730
(15 − 3)! (12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1)
Sometimes we are interested in counting the number of ordered sequences for objects
that are not all different. In this way, the following definition of permutations will be used:
Definition:
The number of permutations of 𝑛 = 𝑛1 + 𝑛2 + ⋯ + 𝑛𝑟 objects of which 𝑛1 are of one
type, 𝑛2 are of a second type, ⋯, and 𝑛𝑟 are of a 𝑛𝑡ℎ type is,
𝑛!
𝑛1 ! 𝑛2 ! ⋯ 𝑛𝑟!
Example 30:

27
Consider a machining operations in which a piece of sheet metal needs 2 identical

diameter holes drilled and 2 identical size notches cut. We denote a drilling operation as d and a
notching operation as n. In determining a schedule for a machine shop, we might be interested in
the number of different possible sequences of the four operations. The number of possible
sequences of two drilling operations and two notching operations is,
4! 42 3 2 1
= = 2 𝑥 3 = 6 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑠𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑠
2! 2! (2 1) (2 1)
Example 31:
A part is labeled by printing with 4 thick lines and 2 thin lines. If each ordering of the 9
lines represents a different label, how many different labels can be generated by using this
scheme?
Solution:
The number of possible part labels is:
9! 9 84 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
= = 9 𝑥 4 𝑥7 = 2520
4! 3! 2! (4 3 2 1)(3 2 1)(2 1)
Combination
Another counting problem of interest is the number of subsets of r elements that can be
selected from a set of n elements; here, order is not important.
Definition:
The number of subsets of size r that can be selected from a set of n elements is denoted
as:
𝑛 𝑛!
( ) [𝑜𝑟 𝐶𝑟𝑛 𝑜𝑟 𝑛𝐶𝑟] =
𝑟 𝑟! (𝑛 − 𝑟)!
Which can be configured as,
𝑛 1 𝑛! 𝑃𝑟𝑛
( )= =
𝑟 𝑟! (𝑛 − 𝑟)! 𝑟!
Example 32:
A printed circuit board has 8 different locations in which a component can be placed. If
the identical components are to be placed on the board, how many different designs are possible?
Solution:
𝑛 8!
( )= = 8 𝑥 7 = 56
𝑟 5! (8 − 5)!
Example 33:
A bin of 50 manufactured parts contains 3 defective parts and 47 non-defective parts. A
sample of 6 parts is selected from the 50 parts. Selected parts are not replaced. That is, each part

28
can only be selected once and the sample is a subset of the 50 parts. How many different samples
are there of size 6 that contain exactly two defective parts?
Solution:
A subset containing exactly 2 defective parts can be formed by first choosing the 2
defective parts from the 3 defective parts.
Dealing with the defective parts for the first step;
3 3!
( )= = 3, 𝑡ℎ𝑖𝑠 𝑖𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑏𝑠𝑒𝑡 𝑓𝑜𝑟 2 𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑡𝑠
2 2! (3 − 2)!
Then, the second step is to select the remaining 4 parts from the 47 acceptable parts in
the bin,
47 47!
( )= = 178,365
4 4! (47 − 4)!
Therefore, the number of subsets of size 6 that contain exactly 2 defective items are:
3 x 178,365 = 535,095.
if the problem is to determine the total number of different subsets of size 6, the solution would
be
50 50!
( )= = 15,890,700
6 6! (50 − 6)!
When probability that a sample contains exactly 2 defective parts is the question:
535,095
15,890,700 = 0.034
References:
1. Montgomery, D. C. and G. C. Runger. (2003). Applied Statistics and Probability for

Engineers. USA.
2. Mendenhall, Beaver, and Beaver. (2009). Introduction to Probability and Statistics. USA.
3. Keller, G. (2014). Statistics for Management and Economics (10Ed). USA.

M233 Lesson 2

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M233 Lesson 2

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ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS

2.1 Sample Space

If we measure the current in a thin wire, we are conducting an experiment. However, in

𝑆 = {80, 81, 82. ⋯ , 99, 100}

It might be convenient to define the sample space as:

𝑆 = {𝑥|𝑥 𝑖𝑠 𝑎 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑙𝑖𝑒 𝑏𝑒𝑡𝑤𝑒𝑒𝑛 80 𝑎𝑛𝑑 100}

Galvez Handout M233-Lesson 2 AY 2019-2020

Counting outcomes using the Tree Diagram

Galvez Handout M233-Lesson 2 AY 2019-2020

3. Complement – the complement of an event in a sample space is the set of outcomes

Galvez Handout M233-Lesson 2 AY 2019-2020

When the sample set is empty, referred to as null set, 𝐸3 = ∅;

If E4 = S, the sample space is, 𝐸4 = {𝑦𝑦, 𝑦𝑛, 𝑛𝑦, 𝑛𝑛};

If the set E5 contains the following elements, 𝐸5 = {𝑦𝑛, 𝑛𝑦, 𝑛𝑛};

then, 𝐸1 ∪ 𝐸5 = 𝐸4 = 𝑆, and 𝐸1 ∩ 𝐸5 = {𝑦𝑛, 𝑛𝑦}; also, 𝐸 ′ = {𝑛𝑛}.

Given, 𝐸1 = {𝑥|1 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 10)}, and 𝐸2 = {𝑥|3 < 𝑥 < 118}

then, 𝐸1 ∪ 𝐸2 = {𝑥|1 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 118}

and, 𝐸1 ∩ 𝐸2 = {𝑥|3 < 𝑥 < 10}

also, 𝐸1′ = {𝑥|𝑥 > 10}, and 𝐸1′ ∩ 𝐸2 = {𝑥|10 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 118}.

Determine the following:

Galvez Handout M233-Lesson 2 AY 2019-2020

Mutually Exclusive Events

Distributive Law for set Operations

The distributive law for set operations implies that: (𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) ∩ 𝐶 = (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) ∪ (𝐵 ∩ 𝐶),

De Morgan’s Laws imply that: (𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)′ = 𝐴′ ∩ 𝐵′ , and (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)′ = 𝐴′ ∪ 𝐵′ also,

Probability is used to quantify the likelihood, or chance than an outcome of a random

Galvez Handout M233-Lesson 2 AY 2019-2020

Furthermore, 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = {𝑎, 𝑏} ∩ {𝑏, 𝑐, 𝑑} = {𝑏} = 0.3

Also, 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = {𝑎, 𝑏} ∪ {𝑏, 𝑐, 𝑑} = {𝑎, 𝑏, 𝑐, 𝑑} = 1.0

And, 𝐴 ∩ 𝐶 = {𝑎, 𝑏} ∩ {𝑑} = ∅

Galvez Handout M233-Lesson 2 AY 2019-2020

Additional illustrations of set operation:

Galvez Handout M233-Lesson 2 AY 2019-2020

3) For the events E1 and E2 with 𝐸1 ∩ 𝐸2 = ∅

Galvez Handout M233-Lesson 2 AY 2019-2020

Galvez Handout M233-Lesson 2 AY 2019-2020

𝑃(𝐸1 ∪ 𝐸2 ) = 𝑃(𝐸1 ) + 𝑃(𝐸2 ) − 𝑃(𝐸1 ∩ 𝐸2 )

Since, 𝑃(𝐸1 ) = 0.15 and 𝑃(𝐸2 ) = 0.28, also 𝑃(𝐸1 ∩ 𝐸2 ) = 0.04

Then, 𝑃(𝐸1 ∪ 𝐸2 ) = 0.15 + 0.28 − 0.04 = 0.39

Then, 𝑃(𝐸1 ∪ 𝐸2 ) = 0.60 + 0.03 − 0 = 0.63

More complicated probabilities such as 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ∪ 𝐶) can be determined as follows:

𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ∪ 𝐶) = 𝑃[(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) ∪ 𝐶] = 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐶) − 𝑃[(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) ∩ 𝐶], this can be expanded

Galvez Handout M233-Lesson 2 AY 2019-2020

In general, a collection of events 𝐸1 , 𝐸2 , ⋯ , 𝐸𝑘 is said to be mutually exclusive if all pairs

𝑃(𝐸1 ∪ 𝐸2 ∪ ⋯ ∪ 𝐸𝑘 ) = 𝑃(𝐸1 ) + 𝑃(𝐸2 ) + ⋯ + 𝑃(𝐸𝑘 )

𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)/𝑃(𝐴), for 𝑃(𝐴) > 0.

𝑃(𝐴) = (𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠)/𝑛; also,

𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = (𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)/𝑛; consequently,

𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵) 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝐴∩𝐵

Galvez Handout M233-Lesson 2 AY 2019-2020

The tree diagram is shown below:

𝑃(𝐷 ∪ 𝐹′) 18⁄400 18

Galvez Handout M233-Lesson 2 AY 2019-2020

a) If we know that a shaft conforms to roundness requirements, what is the probability

Multiplication and Total Probability Rules

𝑃(𝐶 ∩ 𝑇) = 𝑃(𝐶 ⁄𝑇)𝑃(𝑇) =0.7 x 0.05=0.035

Galvez Handout M233-Lesson 2 AY 2019-2020

(i) Total Probability Rule ( 2 Events)

For any events A and B

𝑃(𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐴′ ) = 𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴)𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴′)𝑃(𝐴′)

(ii) Total Probability Rule (Multiple Events)

Assume 𝐸1 , 𝐸2 , ⋯ , 𝐸𝑘 are k mutually exclusive and exhaustive sets, then

𝑃(𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐸1 ) + 𝑃𝐵 ∩ 𝐸2 ) + ⋯ + 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐸𝑘 )