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Manufacturing
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Statistics for Quarter I, 2019
Statistics for Quarter I, 2019
This report presents the observed growth on seasonal adjustments was available. Growth
rates and growth estimates of world manufac- figures have been published based on season-
turing production for the first quarter of 2019. ally adjusted index numbers since 2013. The
The figures are based on the index numbers of TRAMO/SEATS method1 in the JDemetra+
industrial production (IIP) collected by UNIDO software has been used since 2017 to make sea-
Statistics from national data sources. sonal adjustments. The purpose of seasonal ad-
IIP measures the growth of the volume of justments is to filter out any fluctuations or cal-
industrial production in real terms, free from endar effects within time series shifts.
price fluctuations. Users are advised to take In 2013, UNIDO Statistics introduced new
note that while annual industrial growth rates country groups, with economic territories being
generally refer to changes in manufacturing classified based on their stage of industrializa-
value added (MVA), i.e. output net of interme- tion. This grouping is implemented in all of
diate consumption, the quarterly indices reflect UNIDO’s statistical publications. The grouping
the growth of gross output. Given the tempo- is particularly useful for presenting aggregated
ral nature of estimates, output growth provides growth estimates by country group at different
the best approximation of value added growth, levels of industrialization. In the aftermath of
assuming that the input-output relationship is the economic crisis, the pattern of growth, par-
relatively stable during the observation period. ticularly in industrialized and developing coun-
UNIDO has been publishing quarterly re- tries, differed considerably. A comparative pic-
ports on world manufacturing since 2011. The ture of growth trends in different parts of the
data compilation and presentation methods are world has been provided to users. The full list
regularly updated. Earlier reports included in- of economies used in the country groups is avail-
dex figures for some countries which were not able in the International Yearbook of Industrial
seasonally adjusted or for which no information Statistics2 .
1
TRAMO stands for Time series Regression with ARIMA noise, Missing values and Outliers, and SEATS for Signal
Extraction in ARIMA Time Series. ARIMA is the abbreviation of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, a widely
applied statistical method for time series analyses.
2
https://www.unido.org/resources/publications/flagship-publications/international-yearbook-industrial-statistics
UNIDO Statistics 2
Statistics for Quarter I, 2019
The present report implements Revision ing weights based on the country’s contribution
4 of the International Standard for Industrial to world manufacturing value added in 2010.
Classification of All Economic Activities (ISIC The country groups are based on economic ter-
Rev 4)3 in the quarterly data. For countries ritories rather than political boundaries. This
that publish monthly/quarterly index numbers report presents the growth figures for country
based on ISIC Rev 4, national data are used groups by stage of industrial development and
in their original form. For countries that still geographic region.
produce index numbers based on ISIC Rev 3, Users can find further information on the
growth figures are estimated at the 2-digit level methodology of index numbers, estimation pro-
of Rev 4 using correspondence tables. In both cedure or compilation of the country group in-
cases, data on index numbers are derived from dices in a methodological document4 which is
national statistical sources. In case of missing available on the statistical pages of UNIDO’s
data, UNIDO conducts imputations or projec- website, together with the actual indices pub-
tions, where appropriate. These estimates are lished in UNIDO’s Quarterly IIP database,
generally replaced as soon as the officially re- available on the UNIDO’s Statistics Data Por-
ported values become available in national sta- tal5 .
tistical publications. This report presents estimates for the first
Growth rates are calculated from the na- quarter of 2019 as well as revised estimates for
tional index numbers that are aggregated to the fourth quarter of 2018.
the given country group or world region us-
3
https://unstats.un.org/unsd/publication/seriesM/seriesm 4rev4e.pdf
4
https://www.unido.org/fileadmin/user media/Publications/Research and statistics/Branch publications/Research and
Policy/Files/Reports/World Manufacturing Production Reports/Methodology of the Quarterly Report.pdf
5
https://stat.unido.org/
UNIDO Statistics 3
Statistics for Quarter I, 2019
UNIDO has already reported on the global 0.4 per cent in the first quarter of 2019, dropping
slowdown of world manufacturing production from 3.5 per cent at the end of 2017.
that has been evident since 2018 in previous
publications, including the International Year-
Figure 1: Growth of world manufacturing output
book of Industrial Statistics 20196 . This de- in % compared to the same quarter of the previous year
velopment is primarily attributed to emerging
Dev. and EIE (excl. China) Industrialized Economies
trade and tariff barriers involving the United ● China World
6
UNIDO: International Yearbook of Industrial Statistics 2019, https://www.e-elgar.com/shop/international-yearbook-
of-industrial-statistics-2019
UNIDO Statistics 4
Statistics for Quarter I, 2019
1.8 per cent following a growth rate of 2.5 per oping and emerging industrial economies (ex-
cent in the fourth quarter of 2018. cluding China) did not indicate much recovery
Data on the first quarter of 2019 indicated following the abrupt plunge in the fourth quar-
that the manufacturing sector of industrialized ter of 2018. The respective year-on-year out-
economies in East Asia performed below those put growth of 0.8 per cent in the first quarter
of Europe and North America. The respective of 2019 showed a slight tendency of stabilization
year-on-year growth rate declined for the first at a low growth rate. Several major manufac-
time in 11 consecutive quarters. More specif- turers of this country group struggled with the
ically, manufacturing output contracted by an generally difficult economic conditions.
estimated 1.1 per cent in the first quarter of Amid volatility and some turbulence in a
2019 compared to the same period of the previ- number of Latin American economies, the re-
ous year. Negative growth rates were observed gion’s estimated manufacturing output dropped
in Japan (-1.1 per cent), the Republic of Korea by 1.2 per cent. In addition to Ar-
(-1.7 per cent), Taiwan, Republic of China (-3.7 gentina’s continued recession, manufacturing
per cent) and Singapore (-0.3 per cent). output in Brazil, the region’s largest manufac-
Although further tariff increases were tem- turer, recorded another year-on-year decline of
porarily suspended during the first quarter of 1.6 per cent, after experiencing a drop of 2.7 per
2019, U.S.-China trade policy uncertainty re- cent in the fourth quarter of 2018.
mained high. The data of the previous quar- Estimates based on limited data indicate a
ters, however, already indicated some stabiliza- positive growth rate of Africa’s manufacturing
tion of Chinese manufacturing output growth at output of around 0.7 per cent.
slightly above 6.0 per cent. Compared to the Developing economies in Asia and the Pa-
same period of the previous year, the respec- cific recorded a year-on-year growth rate of 2.5
tive seasonally adjusted year-on-year growth es- per cent in the first quarter of 2019.
timates for the first quarter of 2019 indicated in- Among other developing economies,
creasing momentum. Experts attribute the 7.3 Turkey’s manufacturing output fell by 5.2 per
per cent growth, among others, to government cent in the first quarter of 2019, compared to
measures such as infrastructure investments as the same period of the previous year.
well as fiscal and monetary stimulus. At the In summary, the overall year-on-year ex-
same time, experts have warned that the expan- pansion of manufacturing production seemed to
sion in production is linked to increased stock- temporarily stabilize in the first quarter of 2019.
piling due to the possibility of escalating trade Increased risks and uncertainties may, however,
tensions, including higher tariffs. cause a further slowdown of manufacturing out-
Data on the growth performance of devel- put.
UNIDO Statistics 5
Statistics for Quarter I, 2019
Industrialized economies
The manufacturing output growth of in- quarter of 2016 was widespread. In addition to
dustrialized economies has been continuously a contraction in Taiwan ROC’s manufacturing
declining over the last quarters. According to output of 3.7 per cent, of 1.7 per cent in the
UNIDO’s most recent seasonally adjusted esti- Republic of Korea and of 0.3 per cent in Sin-
mates, the year 2019 set off with another visi- gapore, Japan, the largest manufacturer of the
ble decline in manufacturing. Compared to the region, registered a negative grow rate of 1.1 per
same period of the previous year, manufactu- cent. Compared to the same period of the pre-
ring production rose by only 0.4 per cent in the vious year, Hong Kong SAR and Malaysia was
first quarter of 2019, following a 2.5 per cent in- able to withstand this downward trend following
crease in the second, a 1.9 per cent increase in growth rates of 0.9 per cent and 4.0 per cent, re-
the third and a 0.9 per cent increase of manufac- spectively.
turing output in the fourth quarter of 2018. A
more detailed look at selected industrialized re-
gions provides further insights into the gradual Figure 2: Growth rates of manuf. output of industrialized regions,
in % compared to the same period of the previous year
overall decline (Figure 2).
East Asia Europe
North America’s manufacturing output 5.0
4.5
4.0
rose by 1.8 per cent in the first quarter of 2019 3.5
3.0
2.5
compared to the same period of the previous 2.0
1.5
1.0
year. While industrialized economies in Europe 0.5
0.0
−0.5
grew moderately on a year-on-year basis (0.3 per −1.0
17
18
18
18
8
9
01
01
20
20
20
20
I2
I2
IV
IV
III
North America
II
Q
Q
Q
5.0
4.5
ative growth rate of 0.6 per cent in the fourth 4.0
3.5
3.0
quarter of 2018), the manufacturing output of 2.5
2.0
1.5
East Asia’s industrialized economies dropped by 1.0
0.5
0.0
1.1 per cent. −0.5
−1.0
17
18
18
8
8
9
1
01
01
20
20
20
20
I2
I2
IV
III
II
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
UNIDO Statistics 6
Statistics for Quarter I, 2019
Against the backdrop of the uncertainty quarter of 2018 (-1.6 per cent and -1.3 per cent,
about the timing of the United Kingdom’s with- respectively).
drawal from the European Union (Brexit) and Other eurozone economies showed a mixed
about the nature of their future economic re- picture of growth as well. Compared to the same
lationship, disaggregated data on industrialized period of the previous year, manufacturing out-
economies in Europe revealed a comparatively put rose by 7.0 per cent in Slovakia, by 5.8 per
lower manufacturing output growth of eurozone cent in Estonia, by 5.5 per cent in Lithuania,
countries. by 4.8 per cent in Austria and by 4.1 per cent in
Belgium in the first quarter of 2019, whereas de-
Figure 3: Growth rates of manufacturing output in Europe, clining figures were registered in Malta (-3.6 per
in % compared to the same period of the previous year
cent), Portugal (-1.5 per cent) and the Nether-
All Europe Eurozone lands (-0.5 per cent).
5.0 Beyond the eurozone, the United Kingdom
4.5
observed a year-on-year growth rate of 1.2 per
4.0
3.5 cent in the first quarter of 2019. Due to the
3.0
2.5
extension of the Brexit deadline to 31 October
2.0 2019, it remains to be seen how business confi-
1.5
1.0 dence and investment decisions will affect ma-
0.5 nufacturing output in future quarters. Among
0.0
−0.5 others, especially Hungary (+6.0 per cent) and
−1.0
Denmark (+5.1 per cent) continued to success-
−1.5
7 8 8
201 I 2018 II 2018 III 201 IV 201 I 2019 fully extend their periods of stable growth.
QIV Q Q Q Q Q
UNIDO Statistics 7
Statistics for Quarter I, 2019
Consistent with previous quarterly reports, ture investments in addition to fiscal and mon-
China is presented separately from other coun- etary stimulus. Growth was widespread across
try groups due to its size and the characteristics the different industries. Basic metals (+8.9 per
of its economy, as the country’s extended high cent), computer electronics (+9.0 per cent) and
growth rate is rapidly transforming China into machinery (+9.8 per cent) strongly contributed
an industrialized economy. to China’s overall economic performance. It re-
mains to be seen whether the 6.0 per cent growth
rate of Quarters II and III in 2018 marked a
Figure 4: Growth of manufacturing output of developing cyclical turning point, as experts have warned
economies in % compared to the same quarter of the previous year
that the expansion in production is linked to in-
Dev. and EIE (incl. China) Dev. and EIE (excl. China)
China ● Emerging Industrial Economies creased stockpiling across the globe to sidestep
8 potentially rising tariffs. This would likely have
a negative effect on the level of demand in forth-
6 coming quarters.
●
●
4
● Developing and emerging industrial eco-
●
2 nomies (excl. China)
●
● After an accelerated slowdown in manufac-
0
QIV 2017 QI 2018 QII 2018 QIII 2018 QIV 2018 QI 2019
turing output in the last quarter of 2018, devel-
oping and emerging industrial economies showed
a tendency of stabilization in the first quarter of
2019, resulting in a slightly improved year-on-
year growth rate of 0.8 per cent.
China
The growth performance of Asia and the
According to seasonally adjusted UNIDO Pacific region, in particular, increased by 2.5 per
estimates, China’s manufacturing output in the cent compared to the same period of the previ-
first quarter of 2019 expanded at its strongest ous year. While Indonesia continued to be a
pace since 2015, reaching a growth rate of 7.3 per key driver of this positive development with a
cent compared to the same period of the previ- growth rate of 5.1 per cent, year-on-year manu-
ous year. This improved growth figure amid an facturing output growth lost some of its momen-
uncertain global trade environment might be in- tum in India, dropping from 5.7 per cent in the
fluenced by the Chinese government’s infrastruc- third and from 2.8 per cent in the fourth quar-
UNIDO Statistics 8
Statistics for Quarter I, 2019
ter of 2018 to 1.2 per cent in the first quarter Morocco, Nigeria and Senegal, respectively, rep-
of 2019. Viet Nam, by contrast, managed to re- resented countries with expanding year-on-year
bound from its decline of 3.1 per cent in the last manufacturing production in the first quarter of
quarter of 2018. Compared to the same period 2019. The region’s most industrialized country,
of the previous year, the country’s growth rate South Africa, experienced an expansion in ma-
returned to a comparatively solid 4.1 per cent in nufacturing output as well, reaching a year-on-
the first quarter of 2019. year growth rate of 0.5 per cent. Compared
Latin America’s year-on-year growth rate to the previous quarter, however, the season-
remained negative in the first quarter of 2019. ally adjusted estimates implied a decline of 2.4
The contraction of 1.2 per cent compared to the per cent. The important automotive industry
same period of the previous year was primar- recorded one of the most dramatic plunges (-6.8
ily attributable to Argentina’s continued reces- per cent compared to the fourth quarter of
sion and Brazil’s declining manufacturing out- 2018).
put. While Argentina’s struggle with a negative The year-on-year manufacturing output in
double-digit growth rate (-10.8 per cent com- the group of developing and emerging industrial
pared to the first quarter of 2018) persisted, economies of Europe remained unchanged in the
Brazil recorded another negative year-on-year first quarter of 2019 after a drop of 2.3 per cent
growth rate of 1.6 per cent in the first quar- in the fourth quarter of 2018. Compared to the
ter of 2019 following a drop of 2.7 per cent in same period of the previous year, the majority of
the fourth quarter of 2018. Mexico as well as countries experienced rising manufacturing out-
Colombia, Chile and Peru had positive growth put. Year-on-year growth rates of 3.5 per cent
rates of 0.5 per cent, 2.6 per cent, 1.2 per cent and higher were registered, for example, in Alba-
and 0.3 per cent, respectively. nia, Poland, North Macedonia, Bulgaria, Latvia
Compared to the first quarter of the pre- and Croatia. By contrast, the manufacturing
vious year, growth estimates based on limited output of Turkey, the group’s largest manufac-
data for African countries generally indicated a turer, as well as of Serbia and Bosnia and Herze-
moderate rise in manufacturing output of 0.7 per govina declined by 5.2 per cent, 2.1 per cent and
cent. With growth rates of 6.3 per cent, 3.1 per 1.8 per cent, respectively.
cent, 0.7 per cent and 0.3 per cent, Côte d’Ivoire,
UNIDO Statistics 9
Statistics for Quarter I, 2019
●
ter alia, basic metals and non-metallic mineral
1
products. Compared to the same period of the QIV 2017 QI 2018 QII 2018 QIII 2018 QIV 2018 QI 2019
UNIDO Statistics 10
Statistics for Quarter I, 2019
Among other industries, wearing apparel as well as chemicals and chemical products and
expanded by 4.3 per cent on a year-over-year coke and refined petroleum products. Beverages
basis. Paper products as well as wood products and food products, representing essential basic
grew at a comparatively lower pace compared consumer goods, can be subsumed under this
to the same period of the previous year (0.5 per category as well. Both industries recorded the
cent and 0.2 per cent, respectively). highest growth rate in China, but the expansion
Figure 6 presents detailed growth rates for in output was also evident in developing as well
various industries by country groups. In the first as in industrialized countries.
quarter of 2019, only a few industries observed a Additional data on growth rates during the
positive year-on-year growth rate in all country first quarter of 2019 are available in the Statis-
groups, namely basic pharmaceutical products tical Tables.
Beverages
Food products
Wearing apparel
Electrical equipment
Basic metals
Textiles
−4 −2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12
UNIDO Statistics 11
Statistics for Quarter I, 2019
Table 1
Quarter I, 2019
Compared
Share Compared
to same
in world MVA to previous
period of the
(2010) quarter
previous year
UNIDO Statistics 12
Statistics for Quarter I, 2019
Table 2
Quarter I, 2019
Developing
and Emerging
Industrialized
Industrial China World
Economies
Economies
excl. China
UNIDO Statistics 13
Statistics for Quarter I, 2019
Table 3
Quarter I, 2019
Developing
and Emerging
Industrialized
Industrial China World
Economies
Economies
excl. China
UNIDO Statistics 14
Statistics for Quarter I, 2019
Table 4
Compared
Share Compared
to same
in world MVA to previous
period of the
(2010) quarter
previous year
UNIDO Statistics 15
Statistics for Quarter I, 2019
Table 5
Developing
and Emerging
Industrialized
Industrial China World
Economies
Economies
excl. China
UNIDO Statistics 16