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Probability is the study of whether an event will or will not occur. Using the laws of probability, we can find the likelihood
of two events occurring together, not occurring, or a large variety of other combinations.
Key Terms
Probability: A measure of how likely an event is. Complementary Event: All the other events in a
Event: Something that occurs. Can have one or more sample space.
possible outcomes. Compound Event: An event made up of two or more
Simple Event: An event that has exactly one outcome. simple events.
Sample Space: All the possible outcomes of a Dependent Events: Events whose outcomes do affect
experiment. each other.
Outcome: The result of a single experiment. Independent Events: Events whose outcomes don’t
Experiment: The process of taking a measurement or affect each other.
making an observation.
Determining Probabilities
The probability of an event can be calculated by knowing the number of ways the event can occur and the size of
the sample space.
• Probability of event A = P(A) =
• Probability of an event is always between 0 and 1: 0 = impossible, 1 = always happens
The probabilities of all possible outcomes of an event must add up to 1. This means one of the outcomes must happen.
This method of determining probabilities assumes that all the possible outcomes are equally likely to happen.
Simple Events
Example: the probability that a die will land on 3
• Experiment: rolling a single die
• Event: the die lands on 3
• This is also a simple event because the die can only land on one number (one possible outcome)
• Sample space S lists the possible outcomes: S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
• Size of sample space = six
• P(die lands on 3) =
Non-Simple Events
Example: the probability that a die will land on either 2 or 3
• Event: the die lands on 2 or 3
• Can be broken down to two simple events: the die lands on 2, the die lands on 3
• Sample space S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
• Size of sample space = six
• P(die lands on 2 or 3) =
• There are two ways for the event to happen – the die can land on 2 or the die can land on 3
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Disclaimer: this study guide was not created to replace
Complementary Events
Complement of an event A = A’ = all the events other than A in the sample space
Finding probabilities using complements:
• P(A’) = probability that A doesn’t happen
Example: Throwing a die
• Event A = observing an odd number, Event A’ = observing an even number
The Complement Rule:
• P(A) + P(A’) = 1
• can be rearranged: P(A’) = 1–P(A)
• The Complement Rule is useful when P(A’) is easier to find than P(A)
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Probability & Statistics Probability cont .
Compound Probabilities
The probability of compound events depend on the outcomes from two or more events.
Conditional Probabilities
Conditional probability: the probability of event A occurring, given event B has occurred
• Notation: P(A|B), which means “the probability of A, given B”
• P(A|B) =
Independent Events
If an event is independent, its occurrence does not change the probability of successive trials from occurring.
• For example, rolling a six on a die will not change the probability of rolling a six on the next die.
If A and B are independent events, then P(B|A) = P(B).
So P(A and B) = P(A) ∙ P(B, given A) = P(A) ∙ P(B) for independent events
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Probability cont .
• For example, 13C6 is the number of combinations of six objects that can be chosen from 13 objects.
• Combination = order does not matter
To remember that order does not matter for combinations, imagine a combo pizza where you choose whatever
toppings you want and just throw it on!
• For example, 13P6 is the number of ordered ways to arrange six objects chosen from 13 objects.
• Permutation = order does matter
• For both rules, n and r must be whole numbers, and n ≥ r.
Factorial
Factorial notation is a shorthand way to write out a common multiplication pattern in probability and statistics:
n! = n(n-1)(n-2)(n-3)...(3)(2)(1)
For example, say you flip a coin 3 times and get two heads and one tails. The proportion of getting a head seems to
be while getting a tail seems like .
However, we know that the true value of getting heads or tails should be . If you flip the coin more, the probabilities
will even out as the number of trials increase. The probabilities will get closer and closer to chance of getting heads
and chance of getting tails.
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