12TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE UNDERGROUND CONSTRUCTION PRAGUE, 22.-24.

April 2013

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516!059!@8.9=1!725,-847-.25!:82<17-,!081F!25!0C18G struction time and costs and their communication
0=1F! NOP! 0@2C1! 28.=.506! 1,-./0-1,! /091! 0-! -;1! with the stakeholders has been recognized in the
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Interval estimate
Probability density
Full probabilistic estimate
Deterministic estimate
(mode)
Percentile estimate
Construction costs/time
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-406!72,-!8160-19!-2!0!45.-!615=-;!J28!45.-!C264/1M!
23!-;1!.5380,-847-481!@4-!-;1?!1S0/.51!-;1!:82@0G
@.6.-?!9.,-8.@4-.25!23!72,-!2C18845>!#5!248!2:.5.25F!
-;.,!0::8207;!.,!4,1346!328!91,78.:-.C1!0506?,.,!23!
-;1! 72//25! :807-.71F! @4-! 0! 9.817-! :82<17-.25! 23!
-;1! 328/18! 72,-! 2C18845,! 25-2! 34-481! :82<17-,!
,;2469!@1!70813466?!725,.91819>!W,,4/.5=!-;0-!-;1!
/1-;29!E.66!@1!,?,-1/0-.7066?!4,19!.5!-;1!:807-.71!
059!-;1!:807-.-.2518,!E.66!@172/1!/281!0E081!23!
-;1! 45718-0.5-.1,! .5! -;1! 1,-./0-1,F! -;1?! /.=;-!
,-08-! 1,-./0-.5=! 1C15! -;1! 91-18/.5.,-.7! 72,-,!
/281! 8106.,-.7066?>! #5! ,47;! 0! 70,1F! -;1! :81,15-!
,-49?! 23! -;1! 72,-! 2C18845,! E.66! 52-! @1! C06.9! 05?G
/281>! W99.-.25066?F! -;1! 0::6.70-.25! 23! 0! :81G
,78.@19! :82:28-.2506! 09<4,-/15-! 23! -;1! 72,-! 1,-.G
/0-1! 9.,09C05-0=1,! -;1! /281! 725,18C0-.C1!
1,-./0-28,>! W-! -;1! 159F! -;.,! 0::8207;! /.=;-! 80G
-;18! /2-.C0-1! -;1! 1,-./0-28,! -2! 1C15! 608=18! 45G
9181,-./0-.25! 23! 72,-,F! 0,! -;1?! E.66! B52E! -;0-!
-;1.8!1,-./0-1,!E.66!05?E0?!@1!.57810,19!@?!,1CG
1806! :18715->! U17259F! -;1! ,:17.3.7,! 23! .59.C.9406!
:82<17-,!J1>=>!=1262=?F!=12/1-8?!059!60?24-!23!-;1!
.5380,-847-481F! =12=80:;.706! 6270-.25M! 081! 52-!
725,.91819!.5!-;1!0506?,.,!23!I6?C@<18=!059!*'`#!
JKLLOM>! %;1! =4.90571! 610C1,! 725,.9180@61! ,:071!
328! 1S:18-! <49=1/15-! 25! ;2E! -2! .576491! -;1,1!
! N!
:82<17-!,:17.3.7,!059!-;1!@1513.-,!23!-;1!,-0-.,-.706!
0::8207;!/.=;-!-;4,!@1!8194719>!
2.3 F'1G-G%.%*:%6(>1I&.*(((
W! E166GB52E5! /2916! 328! :82@0@.6.,-.7! Y405-.3.70G
-.25!23!C08.0@.6.-?!23!-;1!-45516!725,-847-.25!:82G
71,,1,!.,!-;1!(17.,.25!W.9,!328!%455166.5=!J(W%MF!
91C162:19!.5!-;1!=824:!23!X823>!+.5,-1.5!0-!a#%>!#-!
;0,!@115!0::6.19!-2!,1C1806!:82<17-,F!05!2C18C.1E!
23!-;1/!.,!=.C15!328!1S0/:61!.5!a.5!JKLLlM>!(W%!
4,1,!a25-1!*0862!Ja*M!,./460-.25!328!:82@0@.6.,G
-.7!:819.7-.25!23!725,-847-.25!-./1F!72,-,!059!725G
,4/:-.25! 23! 81,24871,>! #-! -0B1,! .5-2! 077245-! -;1!
=12-17;5.706! 45718-0.5-.1,! 0,! E166! 0,! -;1! 45718G
-0.5-.1,!.5!-;1!725,-847-.25!:8271,,>!%;1!4:90-.5=!
23! -;1! /2916! :819.7-.25,! E.-;! 2@,18C0-.25,! 382/!
-;1! 725,-847-.25! E0,! 7088.19! 24-! @?! D00,! 059!
+.5,-1.5! JKLLKM>! #5! -;1! :4@6.,;19! 0::6.70-.25,! 23!
-;1!(W%!/2916F!-;1!72133.7.15-,!23!C08.0-.25!23!-;1!
-2-06!725,-847-.25!-./1!059!72,-!081!-?:.7066?!61,,!
-;05! gP>! %;.,! 72/:4-19! 45718-0.5-?! .,! 62E18!
-;05! -;1! 251! 2@,18C19! .5! :807-.71F! 1>=>! .5!
I6?C@<18=!1-!06>!JKLLKM>!!
a281!81715-!/2916,!0662E!251!-2!.576491!@2-;!-;1!
72//25! C08.0@.6.-?! 23! -;1! 725,-847-.25! :8271,,!
059! 1S-80289.508?! 1C15-,H! #,0B,,25! JKLLKM! 059!
#,0B,,25! 059! U-.661! JKLLgM! ,4==1,-! 05! 0506?-.706!
,264-.25! 328! 0! :82@0@.6.,-.7! 1,-./0-.25! 23! -45516!
725,-847-.25! -./1! 059! 72,-! 059! 0::6?! -;1! /2916!
-2!0!70,1!,-49?!23!-;1!c804;26V!-45516!.5!UE.-V18G
6059>!%;1!/2916!725,.918,!-;1!7288160-.25,!.5!-;1!
725,-847-.25!:18328/0571!059!72,-,!0,!E166!0,!-;1!
45718-0.5! =12-17;5.706! 7259.-.25,>! c80,,2! 1-! 06>!
JKLLQM! 059! a281-! JKL""M! :81,15-! 05! 1,-./0-1! 23!
-;1!725,-847-.25!-./1!059!72,-,!4,.5=!05!1S-159G
19! C18,.25! 23! -;1! (W%! /2916>! %;1! 60--18! 0::6.1,!
-;1!/2916!-2!0!70,1!,-49?!23!0!51E!80.6!6.51!.5!X28G
-4=06>! %;1! /2916! .576491,! -;1! 7288160-.25,! .5! -;1!
725,-847-.25! :18328/0571! 059! 72,-,>! U-1.=18!
JKLLiM! ,4==1,-,! 0! /2916! 72/@.5.5=! Z0?1,.05!
51-E28B! 328! 81:81,15-0-.25! 23! =12-17;5.706! 45G
718-0.5-.1,! 059! a25-1! *0862! ,./460-.25! 328! /29G
166.5=! 23! -;1! 725,-847-.25! :8271,,>! D2E1C18F! -;1!
/2916!23!=1262=?!.,!52-!725517-19!E.-;!-;1!/2916!
23! 725,-847-.25! :8271,,! 059! 0! ,.=5.3.705-! :08-! 23!
-;1! 45718-0.5-?! .,! -;4,! 52-! 70:-4819>! [:0\B2C]!
059!U-804@!JKL"NM!,4==1,-!0!/2916!4,.5=!(?50/G
.7!Z0?1,.05!$1-E28B,!J(Z$,M>!#-!/2916,!@2-;!-;1!
72//25!C08.0@.6.-?!059!-;1!1S-80289.508?!1C15-,A!
.-! .576491,! -;1! 45718-0.5-?! .5! -;1! =12-17;5.706!
7259.-.25,!059!-;1!91:159157.1,!.5!-;1!725,-847G
-.25!:18328/0571F!E;.7;!081!941!-2!-;1!.53641571!
23! 72//25! 307-28,! J;4/05F! 28=05.V0-.2506! 059!
2-;18! 1S-18506! 307-28,M>! %;1! /2916! 06,2! 0662E,!
/281! 133.7.15-! 4:90-.5=! 23! -;1! :819.7-.25,! E.-;!
2@,18C0-.25,! /091! 948.5=! -;1! 725,-847-.25! -;05!
-;1!a*!@0,19!/2916,>!d0,-!@4-!52-!610,-F!-;1!(Z$!
.,!0!=80:;.706!-226F!E;.7;!0662E,!05!45918,-0590G
@61!72//45.70-.25!23!-;1!/2916!0,,4/:-.25!E.-;!
2-;18!1S:18-,F!E;2!081!52-!5171,,08.6?!,:17.06.,-,!
.5!:82@0@.6.,-.7!/29166.5=>!
W::6.70-.25,! 23! -;1! 0@2C1! /15-.2519! /2916,!
72//256?! 816?! 25! 1S:18-! 1,-./0-1,! 23! -;1! .5:4-!
:080/1-18,>! &16.0@.6.-?! 23! -;1,1! 1,-./0-1,! .,! 9.,G 25! 0! 608=18! 90-0,1-! .57649.5=! 0! 608=1! 54/@18! 23!
:4-0@61F!0,!E.66!@1!9.,74,,19!60-18!.5!U17-.25!N>!! -45516!:82<17-,F!0,!:81,15-19!.5!U17-.25!N>K>!

3 U%W%#U%#*Wd!W$WdmU#U!'I!(W%W! 3.1 (8#%:(:%>&(

a1-;29,!328!,-0-.,-.706!0506?,.,!23!90-0!382/!-45G
516,! 725,-847-19! .5! -;1! :0,-! E181! .5-8294719! .5!
J[:0\B2C]! 1-! 06>F! KL"NM! 059! J[:0\B2C]F! KL"KM>!
D181!E1!,;28-6?!:81,15-!-;1!/0.5!3.59.5=,!059!,1G
617-19!81,46-,>!'56?!90-0!25!725,-847-.25!-./1!081!
0506?,19F!.5328/0-.25!25!725,-847-.25!72,-,!E181!
52-!0C0.60@61>!
#-! .,! :82:2,19! -2! 70-1=28.V1! -;1! :18328/0571! 23!
-;1! 1S70C0-.25! :8271,,! .5! -;811! 760,,1,H! J"M! $28G
/06! :18328/0571F! E;181! -;1! 1S70C0-.25! 82459! .,!
72//256?!3.5.,;19!E.-;.5!251!90?>!JKM!U/066!9.,G
-48@0571,! 23! -;1! :8271,,! 0,,27.0-19! E.-;! 9160?,!
.5! -;1! 28918! 23! 0! 31E! 90?,>! JNM! +S-80289.508?!
1C15-,F!72881,:259.5=!-2!70,1,!E;15!-;1!1S70C0G
-.25!,-2::19!328!625=18!-;05!"g!90?,>!
%;1! 45.-! 72,-! 059! 07-.C.-?! 9480-.25,! 28! 09C0571!
80-1,!081!72//256?!91,78.@19!4,.5=!45.328/F!-8.G
05=4608! 28! @1-0! 9.,-8.@4-.25! Ja.5F! KLLNA! C05!
(28:F! KLLgA! m05=F! KLLkA! U0.9! 1-! 06>F! KLLiM! ! G! ,11!
I.=481! K>! %8.05=4608! 059! 45.328/! 9.,-8.@4-.25,!
081! 1,:17.066?! :2:4608F! @1704,1! -;1! 1S:18-,! 3116!
=1518066?! 72/328-0@61! .5! 0,,1,,.5=! -;1! @245908?!
C0641,!81,:>!/105e/291!23!-;1!C08.0@61,>!U-49.1,!
0506?,.5=! -;1! 90-0! 382/! 725,-847-.25! :82<17-,F!
;2E1C18F! ,;2E! -;0-! 2-;18! :82@0@.6.,-.7! /2916,F!
,47;! 0,! 62=528/06! 28! `1.@466! 9.,-8.@4-.25F! 081!
/281!,4.-0@61!J`066F!"iikA!*;24F!KL""M>!!
! 500
%;1!45.-!-./1!.,!;181!913.519!0,!-;1!-./1!,:15-!25!
1S70C0-.5=! 0! ,1=/15-! E.-;! 615=-;! 23! g! /! 45918!
-;1!528/06!:18328/0571!059!,/066!9.,-48@0571,>!!
Data on the excavation progress from three tunnels
built in the *V17;! &1:4@6.7F! 9152-19! 0,! %)$"! b!
%)$NF! E181! 4,19! 328! -;1! 0506?,.,! 23! 45.-! -./1! b!
328!/281!91-0.6,!,11![:0\B2C]!1-!06>!JKL"NM>!#5!066!
-;811! -45516,F! .5,:17-.25,! 23! =12-17;5.706! 7259.G
-.25,! 0-! -;1! -45516! ;109.5=! 059! 725-826,! 23! 725G
,-847-.25 performance were made regularly. From
these records we obtained the following data:
- (0-1!23!-;1!.5,:17-.25!
- X2,.-.25!23!-;1!/0.5!-45516!;109.5=!0-!-;.,!-./1!
- *60,,.3.70-.25! 23! -;1! =12-17;5.706! 7259.-.25,! .5!
-;1!C.7.5.-?!23!-;1!-45516!;109.5=!-2!=82459!760,G
,1,>!
Only the progress of the main tunnel heading is stud-
ied because it has decisive influence on the overall
excavation performance. As an example, the excava-
tion progress in tube 2 of TUN2 is depicted in I.=G
481!N. The variability of the observed unit time!per 5
m in different locations along the tunnel is depicted
in I.=481!O.
!
700
600
time [days]

400
Triangular distribution 300
probability density

200
Uniform distribution 100

0
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
position [km] !
Proposed combined I.=481!N>!'@,18C19!725,-847-.25!:82=81,,! tube 2 of the
distribution tunnel TUN2 (all ground classes).
!
unit time (costs) ! 16
observed unit time T [days]

I.=481! K>! #664,-80-.25! 23! ,1617-19! :82@0@.6.,-.7! /2916,! mean: 3.28 day
328!81:81,15-0-.25!23!45.-!-./1!J72,-,M> 14 st.dev.:2.14 day
! 12
#5! 248! 0506?,.,F! 5251! 23! -;1,1! /2916,! 81:81,15-! 10
-;1!90-0!077480-16?>!#5![:0\B2C]!1-!06>!JKL"NM!E1!
-;1813281! :82:2,19! 0! 72/@.519! :82@0@.6.-?! 9.,G 8
-8.@4-.25! J,11! I.=481! KMF! E;.7;! @1--18! 70:-481,! 6
-;1! 9.331815-! :;152/150! J"! 059! KM! .5364157.5=!
-;1! 725,-847-.25! :8271,,! 059! E1! 0506?,1! -;1! 1SG 4
-80289.508?! 1C15-,! JNM! ,1:080-16?>! %;1! ,-0-.,-.7,! 2
23! 528/06! :18328/0571! J"M! 059! ,/066! 9.,-48@G
0571,! JKM! 705! @1! 0,,1,,19! 382/! -;1! 1S70C0-.25! 0
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9
:18328/0571! 2@,18C19! .5! -;811! *V17;! -45516,! position [km]
J,11! U17-.25! N>"M>! I28! 1S-80289.508?! 1C15-,! JNMF! !
I.=481!O>!'@,18C19!45.-!-./1!:18!g!/!.5!9.331815-!:2,.G
,-0-.,-.706!0506?,.,!.,!256?!/105.5=346!.3!.-!.,!@0,19! -.25,!23!-;1!-4@1!K!23!-;1!-45516!%)$K! (all ground clas-
ses).

! O!
 ! -;1!-2-06!615=-;!23!1S70C0-19!-45516,F!.91066?!,1:G
%;1!:82@0@.6.,-.7!/2916!23!-;1!45.-!-./1!/4,-! .5G
76491!@2-;!-;1!528/06!:18328/0571!J"M!059!,/066!
9.,-48@0571,!JKM>!The PDF of the unit time includ-
ing both (1) and (2) is thus defined as: !
!! ! ! !" !"#$%&!!! ! ! ! !"#$%&!!! !
!" !!"##!!! ! ! ! !"#$$!!! !
E;181! ! ! !"#$%&!!! ! .,! X(I! 23! 45.-! -./1! 45918!
528/06!:18328/0571F!! ! !"#$$!!! !.,!X(I!23!45.-!
-./1! 45918! ,/066! 9.,-48@0571,! 059!
!" !"#$%&!!! !059!!" !"#$$!!! !081!:82@0@.6.-.1,!
23! 528/06! :18328/0571! 059! ,/066! 9.,-48@0571F!
81,:17-.C16?>! %;1! 613-! @245919! 62=528/06! 9.,-8.G
@4-.25! 91,78.@1,! E166! -;1! 528/06! :18328/0571F!
E;.7;! ;0,! /105! 762,1! -2! V182F! 8160-.C16?! ,/066!
C08.0571! 059! .,! ,6.=;-6?! ,B1E19>! %;1! @1-0! 9.,-8.G
@4-.25! .,! ,4.-0@61! 328! -;1! ,/066! 9.,-48@0571,F!
E;.7;! ;0C1! /47;! ;.=;18! C08.0571! 059! 32662E.5=!
-;1! 913.5.-.25! .5! 248! /2916! 380/1E28B! 081!
@245919! @1-E115! L! 059! "g! 90?,>! %;1! XI(! 328!
-45516!%)$K!059!=82459!760,,!g!.,!,;2E5!.5!I.=G
481!g>!
! %;1!:81,15-19!1,-./0-1,!,;2E!0!;4=1!,:8109!059!
0.5
Both components:
mean: 3.7 d., c.o.v.: 0.5
0.4
probability density
080-16?!328!.59.C.9406!=82459!760,,1,F!-45516!-?:1,!
1-7>!Z1704,1!30.6481,!081!8081!1C15-,F!90-0!726617-G
19! 382/! 0! 608=1! 54/@18! 23! -45516,! E2469! @1!
511919>!W!824=;!1,-./0-1!23!30.6481!80-1!@0,19!25!
=62@06!90-0!382/!?108,!"iiiGKLLO!=0-;1819!382/!
U24,0! JKL"LMF! DU+! JKLLQMF! U1.91534,,! JKLLQMF!
J"M! 059! U-066/055! JKLLgM! .,! /091! 059! 72/:0819!
E.-;!1,-./0-1,!4,.5=!90-0!382/!-;1!*V17;!&1:4@G
6.7!!382/!:0,-!7>!KL!?!108,!G!1>=>!Z08-]B!JKLLkMF!!U8@!
JKL""M! 059! [:0\B2C]! JKL"KM>! %;1! 72/:08.,25! .,!
,;2E5! .5! %0@61! ">! Z1704,1! 52! .5328/0-.25! .,!
0C0.60@61! 25! -;1! =1262=.706! 7259.-.25,! 059! 2-;18!
310-481,!23!-;1!.5764919!-45516,F!256?!-;1!45725G
9.-.2506!30.6481!80-1!705!@1!0,,1,,19>!!
!
%0@61!">!+,-./0-.25!23!30.6481!80-1>!
!
! ! ! ! ! ! %2-06!615=-;! ! $4/@18!23! I0.6481!!
! ! ! ! ! ! 23!/.519!! ! ! 30.6481,!! ! 80-1!
-45516,!! ! !
c62@06!90-0! ! gkgL!B/! ! ! QN!! ! ! ! L>L""!B/G"!
*V17;!90-0! ! QL!B/! ! ! ! "O!! ! ! ! L>KN!B/G"!
!
!
705! 256?! ,18C1! 0,! 0! @0,.,! 28.15-0-.25! 328! 78.-.706!
1S:18-! 1,-./0-.25>! #-! /4,-! @1! 348-;18! 52-19F! -;0-!
-;1!=62@06!90-0@0,1,!23!30.6481,!081!6.B16?!-2!@1!.5G
72/:61-1!059!-;0-!-;1!30.6481!80-1!1,-./0-19!382/!

Normal perfomance =62@06!90-0!.,!-;4,!:2,,.@6?!-22!62E>!

0.3 mean: 3.1 d., c.o.v.: 0.3 X82<17-! 9160?,! 81,46-.5=! 382/! 30.6481,! 23! -;1! -45G
Pr⁡(normal p.)=0.87 516! 725,-847-.25! :8271,,! 081! 0506?,19! @?! U24,0!
0.2
JKL"LMF! 4,.5=! 90-0! 382/! ,.S-?G3248! 30.6481,>! %;1!
Small disturbances 90-0! 059! -;1! 3.--19! ,;.3-19! 1S:2515-.06! X(I! 081!
mean: 8.1 d. ,;2E5!.5!I.=481!Q>!
0.1 !
−3
7 x 10
0
0 5 10 15 6 mean: 175 days
unit time, Ti [days]
! st.dev.: 160 days
5
probability density

I.=481!g>!X(I!23!45.-!-./1! :18! g! /! 3.--19! -2! 90-0! 382/! data

@2-;!-4@1,!23!-45516!%)$KF!=82459!760,,!g>! 4
!
%;1! 0506?,.,! ,;2E,! -;0-! -;1! ,/066! 9.,-48@0571,! fitted distribution
3
,.=5.3.705-6?! .53641571! -;1! /105! 059! C08.0571! 23!
-;1! 2@,18C19! 45.-! -./1>! W77289.5=! -2! 248! 1S:18.G 2
1571F! /2,-! 1S:18-,! E2469! 256?! 1,-./0-1! -;1! 528G
/06! :18328/0571! 059! E2469! -;4,! 459181,-./0-1! 1
-;1!45.-!-./1>!
0
150
210
270
330
390
450
510
570
630
690
750
810
30
90

3.2 C-%.2'&('-:&(-#I(I&.-/(I2&(:1(61#*:'26:%1#(
B-%.2'&*(
%;1!30.6481!80-1!! .,!913.519!0,!-;1!54/@18!23!30.6G
481,!J1S-80289.508?!1C15-,M!:18!45.-!615=-;!23!-;1!
-45516!-4@1>!+S:18-!1,-./0-.25,!23!:82@0@.6.-.1,!23!
8081! 1C15-,! 081! 72//256?! 52-! 816.0@61>! %;1?! 705!
@1! ,-825=6?! @.0,19! @?! 81715-! 1S:18.1571,! J1.-;18!
:2,.-.C1! 28! 51=0-.C1M! 23! -;1! 1S:18-! 059! @?! /05?!
2-;18! 307-28,! Jd.5! 059! Z.18F! KLLlA! c229E.5! 059!
`8.=;-F!KL"LM>!!
%2!91-18/.51!30.6481!80-1!! @0,19! 25! 90-0F! 251!
/4,-!B52E!-;1!-2-06!54/@18!23!30.6481!1C15-,!059!
delay (days)
!
I.=481!Q>!Distribution of delay caused by one failure.!
4 WXXd#*W%#'$!+nWaXd+!!
),.5=!-;1!(Z$!/2916!.5-8294719!.5![:0\B2C]!059!
U-804@!JKL"NMF!-;1!725,-847-.25!-./1!328!0!h28105!
8209! -45516! J9152-19! 0,! (26,05! WM! E.-;! 0! 615=-;!
23! Q"L! /! .,! :819.7-19! :82@0@.6.,-.7066?>! %;1! 70,1!
,-49?! E0,! 28.=.5066?! :4@6.,;19! .5! a.5! JKLLNMF!
E;181!-;1!(W%!/2916!J,11!U17-.25!K>NM!E0,!4,19!

! g!
 328!1,-./0-1!-;1!725,-847-.25!-./1!059!72,-,>!%;1!
(Z$!/2916!.5:4-,!E181!@0,19!25!-;1!0506?,.,!23!
90-0!382/!-;1!*V17;!-45516!%)$"!J813181571!-45G
516M>! I28! /281! 91-0.6,! 25! -;1! 70,1! ,-49?! 059! 25!
probability density
-;1!(Z$!/2916!E1!81318!-2![:0\B2C]!059!U-804@!
JKL"NM>!
%;1! 81,46-.5=! X(I! 23! 725,-847-.25! -./1! E.-;24-!
725,.9180-.25!23!1S-80289.508?!1C15-,!.,!91:.7-19!
.5!I.=481!k>!%;1!81,46-!705!@1!72/:0819!E.-;!-;1!
1,-./0-1!23!a.5!JKLLNMF!E;.7;!0,,1,,19!-;1!/105!
C0641!1Y406!-2!"ig!90?,!059!,-059089!91C.0-.25!23!
N>Ni! 90?,>! %;1! ,48:8.,.5=6?! =229! 3.-! 23! -;1! /105!
C0641! 705! @1! 725,.91819! 0! 72.57.91571F! =.C15! -;1!
,.=5.3.705-! 9.33181571,! @1-E115! -;1! 813181571!
-45516!J%)$"M!059!-;1!(26,05!W!-45516>!D2E1C18F!
0! 72/:08.,25! 23! -;1! ,-059089! 91C.0-.25,! ,;2E,!
-;0-! 4-.6.V0-.25! 23! 8106! 90-0! 059! 725,.9180-.25! 23!
45718-0.5-.1,F! E;.7;! E181! 52-! 725,.91819! .5! -;1!
28.=.506!(W%!/2916F!6109,!-2!/47;!;.=;18!45718G
-0.5-?! .5! -;1! :819.7-19! 1S70C0-.25! -./1! 0,! 72/G
:0819!-2!a.5!JKLLNM>!W!81,46-.5=!,-059089!91C.0G
-.25!23!KN!90?,!,11/,!-2!/281!8106.,-.7066?!813617-!
-;1!45718-0.5-?!23!725,-847-.25!-./1!1,-./0-1,!.5!
-;1!91,.=5!:;0,1>!
#5!I.=481!lF!-;1!X(I!23!-;1!:819.7-19!-2-06!1S70C0G
-.25! -./1! 328! -;1! E;261! -45516F! .57649.5=! -;1! 1SG
-80289.508?!1C15-,F!.,!91:.7-19>!#-!,;2E,!-;1!;4=1!
.53641571! 23! 1S-80289.508?! 1C15-,! 25! -;1! :819.7G
-.25>! %;1! /105! C0641! .57810,1,! @?! 06/2,-! OL! P!
059! -;1! .57810,1! .5! ,-059089! 91C.0-.25! .,! 1C15!
/281! ,.=5.3.705->! %;1! 810,25! .,! -;0-! -;1! 30.6481!
80-1,! 725,.91819! .5! -;1! (Z$! /2916! 081! :2,,.@6?!
2C186?!725,18C0-.C1!059!,;2469!@1!81C.,19>!D2EG
1C18F!-;1!1S0/:61!921,!,;2E!-;1!,.=5.3.705-!.5364G
1571!23!-;1!1S-80289.508?!1C15-,!25!-;1!725,-847G
-.25! -./1! 1,-./0-1,! 059! .-! 91/25,-80-1,! -;1!
./:28-0571!23!05!077480-1!1,-./0-1!23!-;1!30.6481!
80-1>!!
! 0=1!09C0571!80-1,!059!45.-!72,-,!JU17-.25!K>"MF!-;1!
0.025
mean: 197.0 days
0.02 st.dev.: 22.7 days
probability density
0.015
0.01
0.005
0 516>! %;1! /1-;29! -0B1,! .5-2! 077245-! -;1! 91:159G
100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 300
time Tcum [days] ! -.25,F! -45516! =12/1-8?! 059! 2-;18! 307-28,!
I.=481!k>!X(I!23!725,-847-.25!-./1!"#!$%&!'"()*+!,!$-+.
+&(! 1S7649.5=! -;1! 1S-80289.508?! 1C15-,>! '8.=.506! 1,-.G
/0-1! 382/! a.5! JKLLNMH! /105! "ig! 90?,! 059! ,-059089!
91C.0-.25!N>Ni!90?,>!!
! 45.-! -./1F! 52-! 256?! .-,! /105>! ! W5! 05062=24,! 0:G
! Q!
0.015
0.01
mean: 270.1 days
st.dev.: 162.5 days
0.005
0
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
time Ttot [days] !
I.=481!l>!X(I!23!725,-847-.25!-./1!"#!$%&!'"()*+!,!$-+.
+&(!.57649.5=!-;1!1S-80289.508?!1C15-,!
5 (#U*)UU#'$!W$(!*'$*d)U#'$U!!
%;181! 081! -;811! 0::8207;1,! -2! 81:81,15-! 059!
72//45.70-1! 725,-847-.25! -./1! 059! 72,-! 1,-.G
/0-1,H!!J0M!91-18/.5.,-.7!1,-./0-1,F!E;.7;!92!52-!
.576491! -;1! 45718-0.5-?F! J@M! .5-18C06e:18715-.61!
1,-./0-1,!E;.7;!-0B1!.5-2!077245-!-;1!45718-0.5-?!
@4-! 92! 52-! :82C.91! 0! 3466! :82@0@.6.-?! 9.,-8.@4-.25!
059! J7M! 3466?! :82@0@.6.,-.7! 1,-./0-1,>! W,! E0,!
,;2E5!.5!-;1!6.-180-481!059!:807-.71F!-;1!3.8,-!0:G
:8207;!.,!6.B16?!-2!6109!-2!E825=!1S:17-0-.25,!059!
917.,.25,>! D2E1C18F! 1C15! .3! -;1! :82@0@.6.,-.7! 0:G
:8207;!.,!4,19F!.-!921,!52-!15,481!0!728817-!81,46-F!
.3! -;1! .5:4-,! 23! -;1! :82@0@.6.,-.7! /2916! ,47;! 0,!
45.-!-./1!J09C0571!80-1,M!059!45.-!72,-,!!081!52-!
0,,1,,19!8106.,-.7066?>!%2!2@-0.5!,47;!8106.,-.7!1,G
-./0-1,F!.-!.,!91,.80@61!-2!0,,1,,!-;1!.5:4-,!@0,19!
25!0506?,.,!23!-;1!0C0.60@61!90-0>!`;.61!.-!.,!Y4.-1!
72//25!-2!0506?,1!-;1!90-0!-2!:82C.91!-;1!0C18G
:82@0@.6.,-.7! 1,-./0-1,! -?:.7066?! 816?! 25! 1S:18-!
0,,1,,/15-,! JU17-.25! K>NM>! ! %;1! 256?! 0506?,.,! 23!
45718-0.5-?! .5! -;1! 72,-,! 1,-./0-1,! B52E5! -2! -;1!
04-;28,! .,! :82C.919! @?! I6?C@<18=! 059! *'`#!
JKLLOM! E;2! 1S0/.51! -;1! 72,-,! 2C18845,>! `1! 08G
=41! -;0-! -;.,! 0::8207;! .,! ,4.-0@61! 328! 91,78.@.5=!
-;1!:81,15-!,-0-1!@4-!.-!/.=;-!@1!:82@61/0-.7!328!
:819.7-.C1! :48:2,1,! J,11! U17-.25! K>K! 328! 9.,74,G
,.25M>!
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-;1! 725,-847-.25! -./1! :18! 45.-! 615=-;! 23! -;1! -45G
1571! 23! -;1! 45.-! -./1! 25! -;1! =12-17;5.706! 7259.G
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1,,15-.066?!-;1!,0/1!0::8207;!0,!-;1!91-18/.5.,G
-.7!0506?,1,!23!90-0!72//256?!0::6.19!.5!:81,15-!
:807-.71,F! @4-! .-! Y405-.3.1,! -;1! C08.0@.6.-?! 23! -;1!
:8207;!705!06,2!@1!4,19!328!0506?,.,!23!45.-!72,-,>!
X82@0@.6.,-.7! /2916,! ;0C1! 52-! @115! E.916?! 07G
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-;181!E0,!52!8106!91/059!328!Y405-.-0-.C1!/2916G
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/0B18,! E181! 52-! 4,19! -2! E28B! E.-;! ,47;! .5328G
/0-.25>!W!,17259!810,25!.,!-;0-!-;1!1S.,-.5=!/29G
16,! 23-15! 9.9! 52-! :82C.91! 0! 8106.,-.7! 1,-./0-1! 23!
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