The �class balance sheet� of the Obama years

While Clinton hailed the �new U.S. economy� based on �services, finance and
information technology,� Trump pointed to the stunning decline of U.S. basic
industry. Here are some numbers that tell the tale.

During the Obama years, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose from around
12,325 shortly after Obama took office in the depths of the Great Recession to
17,888 on the Friday before Trump was elected the 45th president of the United
States and the Republicans swept both houses of Congress.

If we compare the highest stock market prices, as measured by the DJIA, in October
2007, just before the Great Recession, to the prices on the eve of the 2016
election, we see a rise of about 27 percent. From the viewpoint of large
shareholders�the capitalist class�who measure the success of the economy by the
appreciation of stocks in their portfolios, the U.S. economy under Obama had not
only completely recovered from the Great Recession but went on to add another 27
percent on top of that.

Despite the fact that most large stockholders are Republicans, they couldn�t deny
that from the viewpoint of their class Obama had done a pretty good job as
president. However, if we look at the recovery in manufacturing jobs that occurred
during Obama�s eight years in the White House, we get a very different picture.
Even during its thriving days, U.S. manufacturing jobs�manufacturing in this
context refers to basic industry�were always a minority of the jobs offered by the
capitalist class to the working class.

However, basic industry historically is more likely to be unionized, and workers in

basic industry form the core of the workers� movement. Therefore, these �heavy
battalions� of labor play a decisive role in the position of the working class as a
whole relative to the capitalist class as a whole. The positions of unions outside
of basic industry, such as in services, government and education, to no small
extent depend on the strength of the heavy battalions of labor.

Compared to the pre-Great Recession peak in U.S. manufacturing�basic industry�jobs,

which occurred in March 2006, the number of workers employed was still off by 12
percent when the election was held in November 2016. So here is the balance sheet
of the Obama years: plus 27 percent for the stock market (capitalist class) and
minus 12 percent for jobs in basic industry (working class). With such a class
balance sheet, no �progressive era� was possible.

Clinton assumed that the �blue collar� vote simply had no other place to go but to
her. That is why she didn�t campaign in Wisconsin, which observers assumed would go
Democratic. She also took for granted the African-American vote, which she counted
on turning out in the same massive numbers that they did for Obama.

Clinton also expected to make large gains among upper-middle-class, college-

educated suburban white voters, who she assumed would be turned off by Trump�s
�low-brow� demagoguery. In addition, she counted on winning many votes among
traditionally Republican white female voters because she would be the first female
president.

However, these privileged, highly conservative, white, largely college-educated

voters, who form the heart of the Republican voter base, by and large voted for
Trump and then cast their ballots as usual for the �down-ballot� Republican
candidates.