MORE EXERCISES PROBABILITY

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1) If we do a survey of 100 people and 60 read the newspaper, 30 read
magazines and they are events
independent Find the probability that they do not read anything.
Answer
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A = fread the newspaperg B = fread magazinesg

60 30 60 30
P (A) = 100 P (B) = 100 P (A \ B) = P (A) P (B) = 100 100 =
1800 9
10000 = 50
A [ B = fread newspapers o read magazines or bothg
A [ B = fnot read the newspaper nor read magazines g
60 30 9 18
P (AU B) = P (A) + P (B) P (A \ B) = 100 + 100 50 = 25
Now the probability that someone does not read anything can be expressed
as
P (A [ B) = 1 P (AU B) = 1 18 7
25 = 25 = 0:28
P (A [ B) = 0:28

2) A ship has two engines. The probability that engine A works is 90%,
and of the engine B the probability that works is 70%.
Calculate the probability that no engine will work in the following cases:
a) They are independent
b) The probability of the intersection is 60%.
c) The probability of the intersection is maximum.
Answer
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a)

A = fEngine A worksg B = fEngine B worksg

P (A) = 0:9 P (B) = 0:7
A \ B = fEngine A and engine B worksg
As the events are independent then P (A \ B) = P (A) P (B)

1
P (A \ B) = 0:9 0:7 = 0:63
A [ B = fEngine A or engine B or both engines at the same time worksg
P (AU B) = P (A) + P (B) P (A \ B) = 0:9 + 0:7 0:63 = 0:97
A [ B = fneither of the two engines workg
P (A [ B) = 1 P (AU B) = 1 0:97 = 0:03(3%)
The probability that neither of the two engines works is 3%

b)

60
If P (A \ B) = 100 = 0:6 then
P (AU B) = P (A) + P (B) P (A \ B) = 0:9 + 0:7 0:6 = 1
P (A [ B) = 1 P (AU B) = 1 1 = 0
The probability that neither of the two motors works is null.
c)

An intersection of two sets is maximum when one of the sets

(the smallest) is contained within the larger set.
In this case B A =) A \ B = B =) P (A \ B) = P (B) = 0:7
P (AU B) = P (A) + P (B) P (A \ B) = P (A) + P (B) P (B) = P (A) = 0:9
10
P (A [ B) = 1 P (AU B) = 1 0:9 = 0:1 = 100 (10%)
The probability that neither of the two engines works is 10%

3) I must water a rosebush. The probability of watering it is 3/5.

The probability of it dying if I have watered it is 1/8 and the probability
that he dies if I have not watered him is 7/8. If the rose bush has died,
What is the probability that you have watered it?
Answer
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De…ne the following events:
W = fI watering the rosebushg W = fI not watering the rosebushg
D = fthe rosebush diesg D = fthe rosebush not diesg
Then P (W ) = 35 P (D=W ) = 18
P (W ) = 52 P (D=W ) = 78
We must calculate what is the probability that I have watered the rosebush

2
 since the rose died, P (W=D) we will use Bayes theorem .
3 1 3 3
P (W ) P (D=W ) 3
P (W=D) = P (W ) P (D=W )+P (W ) P (D=W )
= 3 15+82 7 = 3 40
+ 14
= 40
17 = 17 =
5 8 5 8 40 40 40
0:176
P (W=D) = 17%