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Does our food security still depend on the rainfall?

Preprint · September 2018

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Bukhari M S Sillah
Islamic Development Bank
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 Does our food security still depend on the rainfall?
The food import of the Gambia has kept rising over time. From 1995 to 2016, our food import jumped
from 36% of total merchandise imports to 43%(World Development indicators, 20.09.2018). The
urbanized population of the country is increasingly being addicted to foreign food. The urban population
was only 20.61% of the total population, when the country became a Republic in 1971, it soared up to
61% in 2017(World Development indicators, 20.09.2018). Gambia urban population seldom consumes
locally produced food. Rice, which is the staple diet and the most consumed food in the country, is mainly
imported. Since independence, we have been running a deficit rice balance (see the chart below), and the
situation dramatically worsened from 2000 upwards. By 2017, the estimated rice consumption reached
222,000 metric-ton, while the domestic rice production remained below 50,000 metric-ton. The food
imports have contributed substantially to the long running current account deficit of the country.

The current account deficit has averaged 10.7% of GDP since 2011. This deficit has been financed by
tourism receipts, remittances, foreign borrowing and some foreign direct investments. The tourism
receipts accounted for 46% and 50% of the total exports in 2015 and 2016 respectively (World
Development indicators, 20.09.2018). with improving political and human conditions, the tourism receipts
are expected to rise. Similarly, the net inflows of foreign direct investments are expected to turn positive;
the net inflows were negative $1.5 million in 2016. The remittances are key financier of food imports and
current account deficit. They rose from $207 million in 2016 to $216 million in 2017; though as a ratio of
GDP, it declined from 22% to 21% over the same period (World Development indicators, 20.09.2018).

The urban population can afford to buy food, food is mainly imported, and it is largely rice. This implies
that it’s the purchasing power and not the rainfall that determines the food security particularly for the
urban population in the Gambia. Rural population does also consume the imported rice, and they depend
on rainfall to get produces that can be converted into a purchasing power. In this case, when the rainfalls
fail, food security can bite directly the rural population; and with extended family system, the urban
population can feel the effects.

Rice in the Gambia

250

200
1000 MT

150

100

50

0
1984
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982

1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018

Rice production Rice consumption

Source: https://www.indexmundi.com/agriculture, 20.09.2018

 The question to ask is can we convert some, if not all, of the rice imports into purchasing power for the
farmers and rural people of the Gambia? Is it possible? And what are possible effects?

There will be a long list of possible positive effects for converting rice imports into purchasing power for
the Gambia farmers. It will reduce the current account deficit, redistribute the money spent on food
imports to spending on capital goods imports, which will go into further production processes in the
Gambia to expand the domestic economy. It will not only reduce food insecurity for the rural people, but
it will also give them extra purchasing power to modernize their living standards. It may even increase
quality of population health. Rice imports could be GM food, saturated with chemicals, and of poor
quality, and as a result they could be blamed for high incidences of some modern diseases in the country.

Can we do it? We need five inputs to produce rice and meet the domestic rice consumption. They are
land, water, labor, capital and governance. The Gambia has 440,000 hectares of arable representing 43.5%
of the total area in 2015 (World Development indicators, 20.09.2018). The rice yield ranged between 0.79
metric-ton/hectare to 1.43 metric-ton/hectare over the period 1961 – 19761, and at the peak of Jahali -
Pacharr Smallholder Rice production in 1984 -1986, the yield was reaching 2 metric-ton/ hectare2.
Recently, it has deteriorated sharply, for the last three years, the yield averaged 0.74 metric-ton/hectare.
If I take the average yield for the last 20 years, the yield stands at 1.4 metric-ton/hectare. Now, I build
various scenarios to see what rice production level the Gambia can achieve. For simplicity, assume 50%
of the arable can be allocated to rice production and that stays at the average of 1.4 metric-ton/hectare
to 2 metric-ton/hectare, we will increase the production from its current level of 38,000 metric-ton (see
the chart above) to 308,000 metric-ton. We will exceed our rice consumption by 86,000 metric-ton, which
can be available for exports. If the yield increases to 2 metric-ton/hectare, which is possible given the
experience, the total rice production will hit 440,000 metric-ton; and we will not only meet the local
consumption demand, but we will also join the world club of rice exporters. Allocation 50% of the arable
land to rice could be too ambitious, given that fact now less to one-third of the arable is allocated to rice
production. But with irrigation, lands allocated to groundnut and millet can be converted partly or wholly
into rice lands. With one-third of the arable lands and a yield of 2 metric-ton/ hectare, we can produce
290,400 metric-ton and exceed the local consumption demand.

Over 60% of rice production comes from the wetlands, and 20% of the arable lands is wetland3. The river
water is largely fresh, and the water tables are mostly less than 30 meters deep. Thus, the country is not
water scarce, and all the arable lands can be irrigation fed. Labor is available, though the’ backway’ has
sucked out a good number of able bodied youths, the remaining labor needs capital to achieve the targets.
with good governance, funds can be harnessed from investors, donors and private sectors to build capital
for rice production in the Gambia. I think, it is now time we put our money where our mouths are, rice
rice, and rice.

1
http://ricepedia.org/the-gambia
2
http://www.accessgambia.com/information/rice.html
3
http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/countries_regions/GMB/GMB-CP_eng.pdf

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