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Tropical Cyclones

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Tropical Cyclones
Andreas H. Fink, Peter Speth
Institute for Geophysics and Meteorology,
University of Cologne, Kerpener Strasse 13,
D-50923 Cologne, Germany
Correspondence to: A.H. Fink
482
Introduction
Tropical cyclones are by far the most devastating of
all natural disasters, in terms of both loss of human
life and economic damage. It is estimated that the
economic loss after Hurricane Andrew in Florida
and Louisiana in August 1992 was in the order of
U.S.$ 30 billion. In 1970 more than 200,000 persons
were killed in Bangladesh after a storm surge caused
by the Bhola cyclone, named after a small town lo-
cated in the delta of the river Ganges. From the
scientific point of view, very few atmospheric proc-
esses are as poorly understood as tropical cyclogene-
sis, i.e., the complex and interrelated dynamic and
thermodynamic processes that lead to the formation
and intensification of a tropical cyclone. This lack of
knowledge is partly related to the fact that tropical
cyclones spend most of their life time over remote
tropical ocean areas where in situ observations are
scarce or even lacking. Nonetheless, measurements
from aircraft reconnaissance and advances in com-
puter, radar, satellite, and other remote sensing
technology have lead to a constant increase in our
knowledge, especially with respect to the structure
of an archetypal tropical cyclone and the environ-
mental conditions that favor the formation of tropi-
cal storms.
This contribution summarizes selected aspects of
tropical cyclones. After introducing some basic defi-
nitions, we present a number of simple energetic ar-
guments regarding that which controls the upper
bound on intensity of tropical storms. We then de-
scribe briefly the basic circulation and geometry of a
storm. The following section reviews the necessary
preconditions and the initial disturbances that are
able to initiate tropical cyclones, followed by a cli-
matology of tropical cyclone frequency and occur-
rence for the tropical oceans. Finally, we address the
important issue of understanding and detecting the
Naturwissenschaften 85, 482–493 (1998) Q Springer-Verlag 1998
long-term variability and trends in tropical cyclone
activity. Here we present the current state of knowl-
edge with respect to changes in tropical storm fre-
quency, intensity, and geographical distribution in a
greenhouse-warmed world.
Basic Definitions
“Tropical cyclone” is the generic term for a low-
pressure system over tropical or subtropical waters
with organized convection and a definite cyclonic
surface wind circulation (counter-clockwise in the
Northern Hemisphere and clockwise in the South-
ern Hemisphere). In contrast to middle-latitude low-
pressure systems, which derive their energy from
strong horizontal temperature gradients associated
with cold or warm fronts, tropical cyclones are driv-
en by the latent heat released by the condensation
of immense amounts of water vapor within their
convective rainbands. For reasons discussed below,
tropical cyclones are characterized by a large tem-
perature excess in higher levels compared to the sur-
rounding atmosphere. Therefore they are called
“warm-core” systems. In contrast, middle-latitude
lows are “cold-core” features. Another striking dif-
ference pertains to the level of maximum winds; in
tropical storms the winds are strongest from the sur-
face up to 2–3 km (usually referred to as the lower
troposphere), while extratropical cyclones have a
distinct wind maximum at about a height of 9 km
(usually called the upper troposphere).
Tropical cyclones are classified according to their
maximum sustained wind speeds at the surface. Un-
fortunately, maximum sustained winds are defined
as 1-min averages in the Atlantic and East Pacific
and 10-min averages elsewhere, which complicates
comparison of the statistics of one basin with those
of another. Tropical lows with surface winds be-
tween 10 and 17 m/s are called “tropical depres-
sions.” Once the maximum sustained winds exceed
17 m/s, the system is assigned a namein all basins ex-
cept the northern Indian Ocean, and the system is
called a “tropical storm.” If the wind speed further
increases beyond 33 m/s, the cyclone is called a
“hurricane” in the Atlantic and East Pacific and a
“typhoon” in the western North Pacific west of
1807E. Consequently, the terms “hurricane” and “ty-
phoon” are regionally specific names for strong
tropical cyclones. These systems are called (severe)
tropical cyclones or storms in the remaining tropical
ocean basins.
Simple Energetic Considerations
As defined above, tropical cyclones are warm-core,
circular vortices, maintained by the transfer of latent
and, much less important, sensible heat from the
ocean to the atmosphere. The energy supply from
the sea is immense, although limited by the physics
of sea-air heat exchange. The latent heat is con-
verted to sensible heat in the deep convective
clouds, and this sensible heat is continuously con-
verted into mechanical energy, i.e., the kinetic ener-
gy of the circulating air masses. In a steady-state
tropical storm there is a balance between the supply
of heat energy from the ocean and the loss of energy
through surface frictional forces and radiative cool-
ing. As a consequence, a tropical cyclone can be
considered as a Carnot heat engine that converts
heat into work [1]. The “fuel” of that heat engine is
the atmospheric water vapor. A famous theorem in
thermodynamics states that the maximum heat ener-
gy that can be converted into mechanical energy
within one cycle of a Carnot engine, i.e., its thermo-
dynamic efficiency, h, is given by:
TinPTout
hp (1)
Tin
where Tin is the temperature at which heat is added
to the engine, and Tout is the temperature at which it
is removed. For a tropical cyclone, heat is added at
the sea surface and removed through outgoing long-
wave radiation at the level where the air flows out of
the top of the storm. Tin and Tout are therefore the
sea surface temperature (typically at about 287 C)
and the temperature at the outflow level (around
–757 C); therefore h is roughly 1/3.
How much energy can there be in a hurricane? This
depends on how much sea water can be evaporated,
which in turn depends on the wind speed and the
saturation deficit of an air parcel just above the sea.
Neglecting radiational cooling, an expression for the
maximum heat input is:
Emax p Lq* (1PH) (2)
where L is the latent heat of evaporation, and H is
the relative humidity, which varies between 0 and 1,
and q* is the saturation specific humidity which in-
creases exponentially with temperature. Multiplying
Eq. 2 by Eq. 1 expresses the maximum mechanical
energy available to the engine (Eph Emax), that is:
TinPTout
Ep Lq* (1PH) (3)
Tin
Let us now neglect radiation and assume a steady-
state hurricane in which latent heat gain is balanced
483
by frictional loss. Turbulent friction occurs mainly in
the very turbulent layer adjacent to the sea. The rate
at which latent heat flows into the engine is:
CwVE (4)
where Cw is the heat transfer coefficient for water
vapor and V is a representative surface wind speed.
On the other hand, the rate of dissipation of me-
chanical energy is given by:
CdV 3 (5)
where Cd is the drag coefficient. Setting Eq. 4 equal
to Eq. 5 provides an expression for the maximum
wind speed:
Vmax p " CC
w
d
E (6)
For the lack of better knowledge, it is widely as-
sumed in climate models that the exchange coeffi-
cients of heat, water vapor, and momentum are
equal in magnitude; a typical value of the ratio Cw/
Cd is therefore 1. Given a sea-surface temperature
of 297 C, a cloud-top temperature of –757 C, and a
typical surface relative humidity of 80%, the maxi-
mum wind speed according to Eq. 6 would be
roughly 66 m/s. Indeed, tropical cyclones with sur-
face winds of this magnitude are almost exclusively
observed over such high ocean temperatures. It
should be pointed out that the maximum wind speed
obtained from Eq. 6 depends critically on the value
of the relative humidity, H, and that a tropical cy-
clone rarely attains its maximum potential intensity
estimated from such simple thermodynamic models.
This is due mainly to counteracting dynamic proc-
esses, such as the vertical variations in the magni-
tude of the wind and the upwelling of colder ocean
water to the surface by the strong surface winds.
Keep in mind that radiation was also neglected in
Eq. 2 for Emax.
Structure of a Mature Tropical Cyclone
The circulation within a mature tropical cyclone,
that is, a storm which forms an eye, is rather com-
plex. A detailed discussion is beyond the scope of
this contribution. However, there are two major cir-
culation types, an axisymmetric primary circulation
and an asymmetric secondary circulation. The pri-
mary circulation consists of the tangential or swirl-
ing winds around the axis of rotation. This is strong-
est in the vortex core and above the frictional layer
at heights of 2–3 km. In a steady-state balanced situ-
484
ation (in the absence of friction), the so-called gra-
dient wind balance, the pressure gradient force act-
ing to accelerate the rotating parcel inward, equals
the combined Coriolis and centrifugal forces, trying
to accelerate the parcel into the opposite direction.
In such a hypothetical steady state the air would ro-
tate continuously around the eye of the cyclone.
However, given a constant pressure gradient force,
the surface friction slows air parcels in the frictional
layer, which causes a decrease in the Coriolis and
centrifugal forces and thus a deflection of the parcel
toward the low-pressure center. Eventually it spirals
into the core of the cyclone. Measurements have
verified that the gradient wind balance is a good ap-
proximation of the swirling winds in most parts of
the vortex. As a consequence, many features asso-
ciated with the swirling winds can persist for tens of
rotation periods, each lasting about 1 h close to the
center [2].
The surface wind component directed inward consti-
tutes the lower branch of the asymmetric secondary
circulation that maintains the primary circulation
against friction and radiative cooling by supplying
thermal energy and angular momentum. At the sur-
face, the secondary circulation causes environmental
air to converge in the eyewall region, that is, the re-
gion beneath the circular convective rainband which
surrounds the eye of the cyclone (see Fig. 1a). If a
surface air parcel undergoes a 60 hPa pressure drop
on its way into the eyewall region, it should cool by
about 57 C through adiabatic expansion. However,
in reality it maintains a nearly constant temperature
by heat gained from the ocean. In addition, it ac-
quires water vapor from the ocean, such that the re-
lative humidity in the parcel increases from about
75% to around 85%. As a consequence, the parcel
reaches the eyewall much more buoyant than the
environmental air surrounding the cyclone. If it is
displaced vertically above a certain level, called the
level of free convection (LFC), the parcel ascends
freely to heights of up to 14 km or more (see
Fig. 1a), simply because it remains warmer than the
surrounding air due to the persistent latent heat re-
lease.
During its ascent the total energy content (i.e., ki-
netic plus potential plus latent plus sensible) heat
content of the parcel is approximately conserved, al-
though in the process there are large conversions
from latent to sensible heat. The vertical wind speed
in the eyewall is on the order of 5 m/s, much less
than the 20 m/s which occurs in thunderstorm com-
plexes over the midwestern United States. The huge
overall energy release in a tropical cyclone is the re-
sult of the size of the area covered by deep organ-
ized convection. At upper levels (12–15 km, see

Fig. 1. a) Schematic presentation of the diabatically driven secondary
circulation of a mature tropical cyclone. The eyewall convection is
separated into an inner and outer eyewall, which is clearly discernible
from the radar reflectivity pattern in b). Note the spiraling “feeder
rain bands” and the embedded convective cells (black areas). (From
[14])
Fig. 1a) the air flows anticyclonically out of the vor-
tex due to a high-pressure region aloft and the stable
stratification which inhibits further ascent. The pres-
sure gradient force accelerates an air parcel radially
outward. Under the action of the Coriolis force it
curves more and more anticyclonically. The de-
scribed diabatically driven secondary circulation is
strongest near the surface and predominates over
the primary circulation away from the vortex core.
The two circulations add to the total flow in such a
way that the maximum low-level surface winds are
observed below the inner eyewall.
As mentioned above, the eyewall is a concentric ring
of strong convection surrounding the eye of the
tropical cyclone. The eye is a region of calm winds at
the axis of rotation, no precipitation, and sometimes
even clear sky. The eye has a typical diameter of
30–60 km and appears when the storm approaches
hurricane or typhoon intensity. Within the eye, air is
forced to descend to levels 1–3 km above the surface
(Fig. 1a). Adiabatic compression of the sinking air is
the cause of the great temperature excess that typi-
cally maximizes to values up to 10–157 C just above
the moist 2- to 3-km-deep surface layer. The ques-
tion now arises: What mechanisms give rise to the
formation of the eye? Surprisingly, the dynamics in-
volved are not yet understood in detail. While Gray
[3] ascribes the eye to a dynamically forced centri-
fuging of mass out of the eye into the eyewall due to
an unbalanced flow, Willoughby [2] attributes the
formation of the eye to the moist convection in the
eyewall. Sustaining the eyewall convection requires
a strong and permanent moisture supply. However,
if the storm achieves hurricane force winds, moist
air parcels advected from the environment can no
longer effectively reach the center since the air
blows more and more tangentially along lines of
constant pressure. Hence, the maximum of updrafts
and rainfall must move out of the center of the vor-
tex where the ascending motion is replaced by con-
vectively forced sinking motion. Finally, more mass
is removed from the eye via the low-level outflow
into the evolving convective ring than is replaced by
the upper-level inflow that originates from the top
of the eyewall convection (Fig. 1a).
This causes the pressure to drop further within the
eye. It should be pointed out here that in a recent
publication Emanuel [4] gives some strong argu-
ments that convection in the eyewall cannot make
the eye warmer than the eyewall. From theoretical
and modeling considerations, he infers that the me-
chanical spin-up of the eye’s rotating winds that oc-
curs through lateral stresses at the eye-eyewall
boundary requires additional forced subsidence
warming at the center of the eye to satisfy the ther-
mal wind balance. (It is assumed that strong radial
turbulent momentum diffusion occurs when the ra-
dial gradient of the wind speed at the eye-eyewall
boundary exceeds a certain value. As a consequence
the tangential wind speed increases at the rim of the
eye.)
From the arguments above it is clear that fluctua-
tions in the eyewall convection should give rise to
corresponding pressure and surface wind fluctua-
tions. Such an oscillation of the central pressure and
maximum winds is in fact observed in intense tropi-
cal cyclones by a sequence of contracting convective
rings. From the radar reflectivity pattern in Fig. 1b it
can be seen that much of the precipitation within the
cyclone occurs in the spiraling rain bands, often
called the “feeder bands.” They eventually lead to
the formation of the concentric outer eyewall, which
can also be seen in Fig. 1b. As this outer ring ap-
485
proaches the inner eyewall, its associated subsidence
(Fig. 1a) suppresses the convection in the inner eye-
wall. This causes a rapid increase in the central pres-
sure of the storm. In contrast, as the outer eyewall
replaces the inner eyewall, the cyclone rapidly inten-
sifies. The described strong pressure oscillations,
which have a variable period between 1 h and 1 day,
are a special problem in forecasting the landfall in-
tensity of tropical cyclones.
Tropical Cyclone Formation
As discussed above, the development and mainte-
nance of tropical cyclones depends critically on the
moisture supply from the surface. From observa-
tions it is known that warm ocean waters of at least
26.57 C throughout a sufficient depth of about 60 m
are a necessary condition for tropical cyclogenesis.
Due to the enormous heat capacity of water, evapo-
rational cooling of the ocean surface is almost im-
perceptible. However, strong vertical mixing in-
duced by the strong surface winds would considera-
bly lower the temperature in the uppermost layer of
the ocean unless the mixing occurs entirely within a
warm water body of more than 26.57 C. Conversely,
the low heat capacity and limited moisture availabil-
ity of a land surface prevents tropical cyclone forma-
tion over land and causes a landfalling cyclone to
dissipate rapidly. It should be pointed out here that
the lack of energy supply, but not the increased sur-
face friction, is the primary process that kills tropical
cyclones over land.
Another commonly known prerequisite of tropical
cyclone formation is the existence of a non-negligible
Coriolis force. Near the equator the Coriolis force is
negligible, and air parcels can reach the center of a
low-pressure system in a straight-line motion that is
perpendicular to the lines of constant pressure. To
force a parcel on a spiraling motion into a near-
equatorial low-pressure system would require a pre-
existing curvature in the track of the air parcel. In
this case the centrifugal acceleration would counter-
act the pressure gradient force. However, in the real
world, pressure perturbations due to convection re-
main very small near the equator, and almost all cy-
clones form poleward of 57 latitude. North and south
of this latitude the deflection of air parcels to the
right in the Northern Hemisphere, and to the left in
the Southern Hemisphere, is sufficient to create a
rotating vortex in which a low-level air parcel must
travel along a spiraling trajectory before it reaches
the low-pressure center.
Next, a certain level of thunderstorm activity is
needed that allows the heat stored in the ocean to
486
be liberated for tropical cyclone development.
These conditions are closely bound to the location
of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).
Deep convection occurs repeatedly within the low-
pressure zone of the ITCZ due to the low-level con-
vergence of moisture-laden winds underneath a con-
ditionally unstable atmosphere. The ITCZ migrates
north and south, more or less following the sun’s
solstice, which causes a distinct seasonality in tropi-
cal cyclone occurrences in all basins. The fact that
the sea surface temperature falls below or exceeds
the threshold value of 26.57 C in the course of the
year is secondary. Finally, moist middle-tropospher-
ic levels reduce the evaporation of thunderclouds
that occurs when dry ambient air is entrained into
the cloud; they are hence a further factor facilitating
tropical cyclone formation within the ITCZ. In addi-
tion to the three fundamental preconditions dis-
cussed above, a fourth factor is of capital impor-
tance; low vertical wind shear, i.e., a slow change in
the magnitude of the wind with height. Weak shear
in the vertical (less than about 10 m/s difference in
the surface and upper-level winds at about 12.5 km)
allows the heat released by condensation to concen-
trate in a vertical column. High wind shear not only
effectively inhibits tropical cyclogenesis but also de-
stroys a mature tropical cyclone by interfering with
the organization of deep convection around the cy-
clone center.
Even if all four environmental factors favor cyclo-
genesis, tropical cyclones do not form spontaneous-
ly. A pre-existing, near-surface disturbance with a
sizeable spin and weakly organized thunderstorm
activity due to convergent surface winds is required.
In the Tropics two types of disturbances are well-
known: (a) the so-called “easterly waves,” which oc-
cur in the convergence zone of the easterly trades,
and (b) disturbances associated with a “monsoon
trough.” Similar to the ITCZ, the atmospheric con-
ditions prevailing in the monsoon trough (the term
“trough” denotes a low-pressure area) are condu-
cive to thunderstorm activity. The monsoon trough
is associated with the monsoon shear line that sepa-
rates converging low-level equatorial westerlies and
the easterly trades poleward of the monsoon shear
line. If a north-south oriented paddle were thrown
into this streamflow in the Northern (Southern)
Hemisphere, it would start to rotate counterclock-
wise (clockwise) around an axis centered at the
monsoonal shear line. This weak cyclonic shear and
the location of the monsoon troughs well poleward
of 57 latitude are among the environmental factors
that favor tropical cyclone formation. In fact, about
80% of the tropical cyclones form from disturbances
within the monsoon trough and/or the ITCZ [5].
The only major exception is the North Atlantic ba-
sin. Due to the strong north-south temperature gra-
dient between the hot Sahara Desert and the cooler
Congo Basin and Gulf of Guinea region, a strong
low-level easterly jet develops over Central and
West Africa between May and October. Instabilities
in the jet sometimes grow to African easterly waves
which frequently travel across the Atlantic without
further development. However, some of them or-
ganize into Atlantic hurricanes, especially in July to
September. In fact, tropical waves in the Atlantic
trades are not only the most important tropical cy-
clogenesis mechanism in the North Atlantic basin
but are also the triggering mechanism of the most
intense Atlantic hurricanes. For example, more than
90% of intense hurricanes that made landfall along
the eastern coast of the United States since the ad-
vent of satellite monitoring in 1967 originated from
African easterly waves [6]. It has even been ob-
served that African easterly waves travel across the
Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea and develop into
hurricanes over the East Pacific after crossing Cen-
tral America. Globally about 15% of the tropical cy-
clones originate from disturbances in the easterly
trade wind flow.
It should be mentioned that tropical cyclones some-
times form at old, stagnant, subtropical frontal sys-
tems. This is an important cyclogenetic mechanism
for both early-season (June–July) and late-season
(October–November) Atlantic hurricanes, especially
over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and the
Gulf Stream off the eastern coast of the United
States. Additionally, upper-level cold vortices which
sometimes invade the Tropics from middle latitudes
can develop into tropical cyclones. In both cases a
middle-latitude type low-pressure area with an up-
per-level cold core and considerable wind shear
transforms into a true warm core tropical system
due to the latent heat released by the thunderstorm
activity in its center. The warm Gulf Stream and the
Kuroshio Current east of Japan are regions in which
such “semitropical” systems can form at a surpris-
ingly high latitude of up to 307N [5].
Table 1. Averaged annual total numbers of named tropical cyclones (i.e., peak surface winds of at least 17 m/s) and their standard deviations
(std) for all tropical basins and for the 30-year period 1968 through to 1997. In the rightmost column the global average over all basins is
displayed
Western North East Pacific Atlantic
Pacific, (~1807W) Caribbean Sea,
South China Sea Gulf of Mexico
Mean 26.9 16.6 9.3
Std 4.3 4.6 3.6
Although the above preconditions for tropical cy-
clone formation prevail over vast tropical ocean ar-
eas for weeks or even months, an annual average of
only about 87 tropical disturbances intensify to be-
come named tropical storm strength (Table 1). Since
the cyclones form over data-free or data-sparse
oceanic areas, and since reconnaissance aircraft are
not launched before a disturbance reaches a certain
degree of organization, the factors why some distur-
bances intensify to tropical storm strength while oth-
ers decay are not well understood. It is generally ac-
cepted that a certain amount of pre-existing upper-
tropospheric outflow, i.e., divergent winds, is condu-
cive for intensification. Tropical cyclone forecasters
therefore closely check whether upper-tropospheric
winds are favorable. The problem is that small er-
rors in the analyzed total wind field can cause large
errors in the divergence of the wind field. As men-
tioned above, another factor favoring tropical cy-
clone formation and intensification is the existence
of moist middle-tropospheric levels. A pre-existing
mesoscale (100–200 km) convective system may
have left such a moist layer at middle to upper tro-
pospheric levels, but a subsequent blow-up of con-
vection must occur underneath the pre-moistened
upper troposphere.
Such upper-level moisture anomalies are also diffi-
cult to analyze over the data-poor tropical oceans.
Taking these difficulties into consideration, it can
easily be understood that predicting tropical cyclone
formation is a very complicated task. Cyclone fore-
casters therefore rank the probability of tropical cy-
clone formation in a region of persistent thunder-
storm activity with a discernible low-level cyclonic
circulation as “poor,” “fair,” or “good.” However,
sometimes a tropical cyclone formation alert must
be canceled, or a cloud cluster formation ranked as
“poor” develops into a tropical cyclone within a day.
An extreme example of an explosive intensification
is Super Typhoon Forrest in September 1983; For-
rest’s central pressure fell from 976 to 876 hPa in
just under 24 h.
North Australian Region, Southwest global
Indian Ocean Southwest Pacific Indian Ocean
( 1 1007E) (~1007E)
5.5 16.2 12.1 86.7
2.2 3.9 3.2 7.9
487
Observed Tropical Cyclone Occurrence
Figure 2 plots the tracks of all tropical cyclones
which in 1988–1990 reached at least named tropical
cyclone strength (i.e., winds exceeding 17 m/s). For a
better graphical representation, the Tropics are div-
ided into the Eastern (Fig. 2a) and Western Hemis-
pheres (Fig. 2b). It can be seen from Fig. 2 that
about twice as many tropical cyclones occur in the
Eastern as in the Western Hemisphere. Moreover,
two-thirds are observed in the Northern Hemis-
phere, due mainly to the absence of cyclones over
the Southeast Pacific and South Atlantic. As a con-
sequence of the intense cold ocean currents at the
eastern rims of both basins in the Southern Hemis-
phere the most southerly positions of the respective
ITCZs are located at the equator or even in the
Northern Hemisphere. Over the South Atlantic,
strong vertical wind shear also unfavors tropical cy-
clone formation. Note that the average number of
named tropical cyclones given below for each indi-
vidual basin refer to the 30-year base period
1968–1997, and are reproduced in Table 1.
Figure 2 also demonstrates that the most active cy-
clone basin is the western North Pacific including the
South China Sea. During the period 1968–1997 al-
most 27 disturbances reached named tropical storm
intensity in an average year. Roughly two-thirds of
these became typhoons. Although the typhoon sea-
son peaks in August, the western North Pacific is
the only region where tropical cyclogenesis has been
observed in all months of the year. This basin is also
known for its very large and intense storms. About
four typhoons each year reach Super Typhoon in-
tensity (i.e., winds exceeding 67 m/s), and Super Ty-
phoon Tip was measured to have a central pressure
of 870 hPa on 12 October 1979. Factors that pro-
mote the frequent genesis of typhoons include the
Fig. 2. The tracks of all named tropical cyclones (i.e., maximum sus-
very large and deep warm water body with tempera-
tained winds exceeding 17 m/s) for the 3-year period 1988–1990
tures of 29–307 C in the northern summer, an active
monsoon trough, and persistent upper-level diver-
gence. Typhoons in this region frequently make
landfall at the coasts of Vietnam, mainland China, storm per year propagates as far as the central Pa-
Taiwan, Korea, and Japan and cause much damage cific. In August–September 1994 Hurricane John
and many fatalities each year. With nine tropical traveled all the way from the eastern to the western
system per year (average for 1968–1997), the Philip- Pacific, and with a life span of 31 days John is the
pines is the country that is most frequently affected longest lasting tropical cyclone on record. Especially
by tropical storms in the Tropics. during the late hurricane season eastern Pacific hur-
The second most active basin is the eastern North ricanes can recurve and make landfall at the Mexi-
Pacific, with an average of 16.6 named cyclones dur- can Coast including Baja California. This happened
ing the hurricane season from the middle of May to in October 1997, as Hurricane Pauline severely dam-
the end of November. Most of the cyclones dissipate aged the town of Acapulco. Since the 1997 hurricane
over water north of 207N and between 120 and season also saw Hurricane Linda, the strongest East
1407W (Fig. 2b) because they encounter cold waters Pacific cyclone on record, with sustained winds of
and high wind shear. However, an average of one 160 knots and an estimated minimum pressure of

488
900 hPa, the simultaneous 1997–1998 El Niño event
has widely been held responsible for these weather
extremes. However, as discussed below, a clearcut
effect of El Niño on the tropical cyclone activity in
that basin is not supported by current scientific
knowledge.
In the Southern Hemisphere an annual average of
about 16 named cyclones occur in the Australian/
Southwest Pacific Ocean region and about 12 in the
Southwest Indian Ocean west of 1007E. In both of
these areas the initial disturbances are commonly lo-
cated in the monsoon troughs. In the Southwest In-
dian Ocean 85% of cyclones occur between Decem-
ber and March, with a peak in January. Interesting-
ly, the Southwest Indian Ocean is the only basin
other than the western North Pacific where tropical
cyclones occur in winter. Cyclones form rather regu-
larly in July and August in the Southern Hemis-
phere central Indian Ocean. In the Australian/
Southwest Pacific region the tropical cyclone season
extends from late October through May. In the
Southwest Pacific region the frequency distribution
has a single peak in February, while a double peak
occurs in the tropical seas north of Australia in Jan-
uary and March, with a distinct minimum in Februa-
ry. The reason for the double peak is simple: the
ITCZ is located mostly north of Australia in Janua-
ry and March, while it moves to its southernmost po-
sition in February and is then located over the conti-
nent of Australia. As a consequence, the potential
for tropical cyclone development is reduced over the
adjacent tropical seas.
In the North Atlantic, including the Caribbean Sea
and the Gulf of Mexico, an average of nine named
cyclones are observed between June and November.
In an average year five reach hurricane strength. As
discussed above, the most intense hurricanes form
from easterly waves, south of 207N and just east of
the Cape Verde Islands, mainly during the peak hur-
ricane season in August and September. The strong-
est Atlantic hurricane on record was Hurricane Gil-
bert in September 1988, with an estimated central
pressure of 888 hPa.
The least active cyclone basin is the North Indian
Ocean. Only five or six cyclones form each year in
the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea, and only
two of these reach hurricane force winds. However,
five to six times as many tropical cyclones form over
the Bay of Bengal than in the Arabian Sea [7]. The
cyclone frequency has a bimodal distribution, with
peaks in April–May and October–November. Be-
tween June and September strong vertical shear in-
hibits tropical cyclone development over this area.
Although only 7% of the global tropical cyclones
form in that basin, they are the most disastrous in
the world. The shallow waters of the Bay of Bengal,
the low flat coastal terrain and the funneling shape
of the coastline cause severe storm surges that flood
the delta of the Ganges River. In 1970 more than
200,000 persons were killed in Bangladesh, and in
1991 the death toll was more than 100,000. In some
years, such as 1988 and 1997, tropical storms in the
South China Sea cross the Malay Peninsula into the
Bay of Bengal.
Year-to-Year Variation in Tropical
Cyclone Activity
Interestingly, the global average of 87 tropical cy-
clones per year is rather stable for a weather system
that is regarded as a relatively rare phenomenon in
any one basin. Its annual average variation is only
9% (Table 1 and Fig. 3d), with the extreme varia-
tions being –17% and c18%. In contrast, interan-
nual variations in tropical cyclone activity can be
quite remarkable in a given basin. This statement es-
pecially holds for the North Atlantic, where the av-
erage annual variation is nearly 40% (Table 1).
Thanks to the pioneering work by Prof. W. Gray
from the Colorado State University and others, fac-
tors that control tropical storm activity in the North
Atlantic are reasonably well understood. Since 1984
Professor Gray and his collaborators have issued
Atlantic tropical cyclone seasonal forecasts as early
as December of the preceding year. The forecasts
are updated in early June at the beginning of the
hurricane season, and in early August at the start of
the most active period (for the interested reader,
Professor Gray’s forecasts are available in the Inter-
net at http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/
index.html). Gray’s forecasts are based on a multi-
variate linear regression analysis [8].
Major factors that enter his formula and, that are
known to affect Atlantic hurricane formation are
the following. First is the state of the El
Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific
Ocean; during ENSO warm (or El Niño) years in-
creased upper-level westerlies over the tropical At-
lantic lead to an increased vertical wind shear. The
prolonged 1991–1994 El Niño resulted in the least
active period on record, with a total of only 15 hur-
ricanes. The substantial decrease in the number of
named Atlantic tropical storms during El Niño peri-
ods is evident from the filled bars in Fig. 3a, espe-
cially from the 1970s onward. Second is the phase of
the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). Stratospher-
ic winds at and above the top of tropical thunder-
489
storms change direction from west to east roughly
every 12–15 months. If stratospheric winds blow
from the east, Atlantic hurricane activity is reduced,
presumably due to increased upper-tropospheric to
lower-stratospheric wind shear. A third factor is
African West Sahel rainfall. A wet Sahelian rainy
seasons seems to be associated with a higher chance
of low-latitude “Cape Verde” type hurricanes, i.e.,
storms that form from African easterly waves.
Gray’s predictions have demonstrated considerable
accuracy. However, a major problem is the need for
accurate long-lead forecasts of the most influential
forcing mechanism, the state of the ENSO. For ex-
ample, in 1997 Gray overestimated the Atlantic hur-
ricane activity, partly because he forecast a weak El
Niño for 1997–1998, whereas it has in fact turned out
to be one of the strongest on record.
In contrast, the effect of El Niño on the number of
named East Pacific storms is not very clear (Fig. 3b).
Nonetheless, it is generally believed that El Niño ex-
erts an effect on the basin-wide tropical cyclone ac-
tivity. In the West Pacific cyclones originate farther
east and closer to the equator in both hemispheres
[9]. In the Southern Hemisphere fewer cyclones
form over the Coral Sea and threaten the eastern
Australian coast, while in the Northern Hemisphere
more cyclones are observed to move from the East
to the Central Pacific. Therefore the chance of the
Hawaiian Islands being struck by a cyclone in-
creases. In September 1992, an El Niño-year, Hurri-
cane Iniki caused substantial damage on the Ha-
waiian island of Kauai. In conclusion, some interan-
nual variability is related to ENSO, but with the ex-
ception of the Atlantic less is known about addition-
al causes of the year-to-year variations in other ba-
sins, and how they are interrelated.

Multidecadal Variability and Trends in

Tropical Cyclone Activity
Despite the very remarkable increase in the globally
averaged surface temperature in the past two de-
cades, which has also affected the land and oceanic
areas in the Tropics, no increase or decrease in the

Fig. 3. Total numbers of named tropical cyclones for: a) the Atlantic

basin (1944–1997), b) the eastern North Pacific (1949–1997), c) the
western North Pacific (1945–1997), and d) the sum over all tropical
basins (1968–1997). Filled bars, El Niño-years; right abscissa, long-
term average number

490
total number of named storms is discernible from
Fig. 3d for the period 1968–1997. A reliable global
number cannot be obtained for earlier years due to
the lack of global data coverage in the pre-satellite
era. Some authors have argued that the number of
tropical cyclones in the world’s most active basin,
the western North Pacific, has increased in recent
years [10]. Figure 3c apparently confirms this; how-
ever, the 1960s saw a similar highly active period,
and the increase may reflect only a decadal varia-
tion. The presence of island observing stations and
busy commercial shipping routes and the advent of
reconnaissance aircraft observations since the mid-
dle 1940s have resulted in rather reliable tropical cy-
clone records for the western North Pacific and the
North Atlantic. In contrast, the increase in the cor-
responding statistics on the East Pacific is artificial
(Fig. 3b). Due to its remoteness, the cyclone activity
in this basin was long underestimated before the ad-
vent of satellite observations at the end of the 1960.
In conclusion, tropical cyclone statistics do not sup-
port a significant trend in the number of named
tropical cyclones, with the possible exception of the
North Indian Ocean where data seem to support a
downward trend over the past two decades (not
shown).
However, a distinct decadal variability (i.e., tempo-
ral variations on the order of 10–50 years) in the
number and preferred tracks of intense Atlantic
hurricanes is evident in the historical record. For ex-
ample, in the more active 47-year period 1921–1967,
15 intense hurricanes with sustained wind speeds of
more than 50 m/s made landfall in Florida, while
there were 12 for the remaining eastern coast of the
United States. In the less active periods, 1900–1920
and 1968–1993, together 47 years, the corresponding
numbers were 4 and 5, respectively [6]. While the
variability in the early part of this century can partly
be explained by a shift in hurricane tracks from the
Gulf coast in the 1900s toward the Florida and mid-
Atlantic coast in the 1920s [11], the considerable de-
cline in the number of intense landfalling hurricanes
at these coastal strips in recent decades agrees with
a similar trend in the Caribbean Sea and in the Gulf
of Mexico. This is clearly visible from Fig. 4, which
displays the tracks of intense hurricanes for the 24-
year periods 1944–1967 (upper panel), and
1968–1991 (lower panel).
It should be pointed out here that the satellite detec-
tion of a few weaker storms in the remote areas of
the Atlantic in recent years may have prevented the
detection of a similar trend in the total number of
named storms. Despite the fact that ENSO warm
events have been more prominent in the past two
decades, it cannot explain the above decadal varia-
tions. Finding the causes of this decadal variation
has become an important scientific challenge, given
the prospect of a return of more active hurricane
seasons in the Caribbean Sea and at the Atlantic
and Gulf coasts of the United States. These areas
face an increasing risk, since the population and
property development have immensely grown, while
the hurricane preparedness and awareness of local
inhabitants have declined.
The question arises as to the potential causes of the
decadal-scale Atlantic hurricane variability. Recent
research, especially by Prof. Gray and his colleagues
(see, for example [6]), suggests that the decadal
changes in the ocean temperature in the tropical and
subtropical Atlantic are responsible for the changes
in the distribution and intensity of hurricanes in that
region. A concurrent cooling (warming) of the
North (South) Atlantic was observed in the 1960s
which is thought to be the major cause of a weaker
West African monsoon. The decadal West African
monsoon signal is reflected in the well-known pro-
longed Sahelian drought which began in the early
1970s and still is continuing. The timing of the de-
cadal changes in the Atlantic hurricane activity and
the West African rainfall suggests that these climatic
fluctuations are interrelated. Pasch et al. [12] give
evidence that the total number of African easterly
waves that leave West Africa, and that are known to
be the most important incipient disturbances for
tropical cyclogenesis in the Atlantic, is not related to
the year-to-year changes in Atlantic hurricane activ-
ity.
However, it appears that the changes in the Atlantic
sea-surface temperatures and in the low-level mon-
soonal flow off the coast of West Africa, which are
at least partly responsible for the decadal Sahelian
drought, created less favorable conditions for cy-
clone formation in the East Atlantic. For the quiet
season, 1994, Pasch et al. noted that cooler ocean
temperatures, higher stability, and vertical wind
shear inhibited a better organization of African
wave disturbances over the eastern Atlantic; the
waves became poorly organized, or even dissipated.
Gray [6] has speculated that sea-surface tempera-
ture anomalies in the Atlantic will weaken and take
on the opposite sign in coming years due to an in-
creased heat advection in the Gulf Stream. This
would increase the potential of strong landfalling
hurricanes along the eastern United States coast. In
the past three decades more than 90% of these sys-
tems originated from African easterly waves, a fac-
tor that would become stronger and more frequent
in Gray’s scenario. However, it remains speculative
whether the most active 3-year period on record,
1995–1997, and the concurrent warming of the
491

Fig. 4. The tracks of all intense (i.e., maximum 1-min surface winds
exceeding 50 m/s) Atlantic hurricanes for the 24-year periods: a)
1944–1967 and b) 1968–1991
492
North Atlantic, signals a decadal upturn in the At-
lantic hurricane activity.
Tropical Cyclones and Global Climate
Change
Coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation
models (OAGCMs) predict an increase in the
oceanic area enclosed by the 26.57 C sea-surface
temperature isotherm as a result of increasing
greenhouse gas concentrations. It is a fallacy that
the increase in tropical ocean temperatures auto-
matically results in an increasing number of more in-
tense tropical cyclones. The world’s leading scien-
tists in the field of tropical cyclone research recently
reviewed the current state of knowledge with re-
spect to possible developments next century [9]. As
noted above, tropical cyclogenesis depends on a va-
riety of environmental factors, of which ocean tem-
perature is merely one. While the spatial resolution
of present OAGCMs is too low to simulate mature
tropical cyclones, they can give a crude prediction
regarding the environmental factors that favor tropi-
cal cyclogenesis. Many simulations show intensified
tropical atmospheric east-west and north-south
overturning circulation cells, known as the Walker
and Hadley circulation cells, which is associated with
an upper-tropospheric warming within the ITCZ as
a consequence of increased latent heat release over
warmed oceans. While the increased overturning in
the Walker and Hadley cells causes stronger vertical
wind shear, the increased dry static stability due
greater warming of the upper than of the lower tro-
posphere tends to counteract the decrease in moist
static stability at lower levels. The latter is caused by
the increased low-level water vapor content.
Moreover, Holland [13] showed with a thermody-
namic tropical cyclone model that the vertical tem-
perature and moisture profiles predicted by an
OAGCM causes the threshold ocean temperature
for tropical cyclone formation to increase to about
287 C, thus leaving the area susceptible to tropical
cyclogenesis at about the same size as presently.
Moreover, the maximum potential intensity of tropi-
cal cyclones underwent an only modest increase of
10–20%. Summarizing all the above results, the cur-
rent state of knowledge does not support any major
changes in the area or the global location of tropical
cyclone genesis in a greenhouse-warmed world.
However, increased ocean temperatures at higher
latitudes of the West Atlantic and West Pacific
Oceans could, given a favorable low vertical wind
shear, sustain single tropical cyclones at unpreced-
ented high latitudes and/or change the character of
the extratropical transition of the tropical cyclone.
Outlook
We have discussed several unresolved questions
with respect to the dynamic and thermodynamic in-
terplay that leads to a formation and intensification
of a tropical cyclone. The prospects for future pro-
gress are somewhat mixed. On the one hand, in-
creasing computer power will allow scientists to run
more sophisticated hurricane models, for example,
high-resolution coupled ocean-atmosphere models
capable of simulating the large-scale environmental
flow, and which can resolve a mature hurricane or
even single clouds. This will undoubtedly contribute
to a more thorough understanding of hurricane dy-
namics. On the other hand, model simulations must
be validated against observations. At present, the
extent of classical observational networks (surface
observations and weather balloons) is shrinking due
to budgetary reductions, and remote sensing data do
not always provide a suitable substitute for in situ
observations. In 1987 the very valuable reconnais-
sance aircraft flights into West Pacific typhoons
were canceled by the United States government.
Moreover, data collected in thousands of these
flights since 1945 have been lost. This lead to a fur-
ther: there are remarkably few scientists working on
the problem of understanding and predicting tropi-
cal cyclones, compared to those studying other natu-
ral disasters of similar social significance, such as
earthquakes [1]. It is indisputable that the potential
for loss of life and destruction of property caused by
tropical cyclones has dramatically increased in re-
cent years as a result of coastal development and ur-
banization in cyclone-prone areas. Society must
weigh the cost of maintaining an observational net-
work and funding basic scientific research against
the losses in human lives and economic damage.
Acknowledgements. The authors thank Ms. Peggy Allard for her as-
sistance in preparing the figures. The authors also thank two anony-
mous reviewers for their suggestions.
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