Received: 25 August 2017 Revised: 5 March 2018 Accepted: 12 April 2018

DOI: 10.1002/joc.5680

RESEARCH ARTICLE

Hydrological drought associations with extreme phases

of the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations over Turkey
and northern Iran
Saeed Vazifehkhah | Ercan Kahya

Hydraulics and Water Resources Division,

Department of Civil Engineering, Istanbul
Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey
Correspondence
Saeed Vazifehkhah, Hydraulics and Water
Resources Division, Department of Civil
Engineering, Istanbul Technical University,
Istanbul 34469, Turkey.
Email: vazifehkhah@itu.edu.tr
Funding information
Istanbul Teknik Üniversitesi, Grant/Award
Number: 39267
Impacts of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) on
hydroclimatic variables have been previously studied in various viewpoints. This
study adds a new perspective by focusing on the influences of winter NAO and
AO extreme phases on hydrological drought using a standardized streamflow index
(SSFI) over Turkey and northern Iran. Moreover, the physical mechanisms associ-
ated with the extreme phases of NAO over different atmospheric conditions were
investigated. The results concerning short-term droughts across Turkey revealed
that wet conditions dominate particularly in the winter and following spring during
the negative NAO and AO extreme phases while the NAO and AO impacts in Iran
are only significant during simultaneous winter. Furthermore, the outputs of SSFI
for the positive extreme phases of NAO and AO considerably differed in Turkey
and Iran so that multiple drought events were detected in Turkey for all timescales
as generally opposed to Iran. Western and eastern Turkey suffered from drought in
various magnitudes during the positive extreme phases of NAO while fewer
droughts were observed in Iran around the Caspian Sea during the negative NAO
and AO extreme phases. Results of correlation analysis depicts that negative cycles
are controlling wetness (drought) in Turkey (Iran) while there is a weak correlation
between positive NAO cycles and SSFIs in the study area. In addition, our study
showed that negative NAO and AO extreme phases could affect the hydrological
drought stronger but in a shorter period compared with a longer period regarding
the positive NAO and AO phases.

KEYWORDS

Arctic Oscillation, hydrological drought, Iran, North Atlantic Oscillation, Turkey

1 | INTRODUCTION thus, it has been continuing topic of numerous investiga-

Knowledge of atmospheric physics and climatic processes is
critical in dealing with a number of problems that we have
often encountered in our life. A wide spectrum of studies
concerning drought, flood and climate change problems
(e.g., Kalayci et al., 2004; Kahya et al., 2008; Şarlak et al.,
2009; Can et al., 2012) primarily requires the best under-
standing of such knowledge. In general, hydroclimatic vari-
ability has direct economic and social impacts on society;
tions. Many of most direct impacts happen to occur through
the hydrologic cycle in which climate is a driving force
(Kahya and Karabörk, 2001). Drought, which nowadays
occurs frequently, is the most natural catastrophic event
worldwide. It usually affects more area compared to other
natural disasters and thus its impacts will cause a widespread
hazard on larger population. Therefore, evaluation of
drought is the most important topics among hydrologists and
climatologists. Generally, there are four major drought types

Int J Climatol. 2018;1–17. wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/joc © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society 1

2 VAZIFEHKHAH AND KAHYA
focused in the literature: meteorological, hydrological, agri-
cultural and socio-economic (Wilhite, 2000). To date differ-
ent drought indices have been developed to characterize and
identify each type of droughts. On the other hand, analysis
of teleconnections between large-scale atmospheric circula-
tions and surface hydroclimatic variables is crucial for deci-
sion makers and researchers due to its potential impacts on
water resources.
In last three decades there are increasing number of stud-
ies evaluating the possible influences of North Atlantic
Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) on different
hydroclimatic variables (Rodó et al., 1997; Rogers, 1997;
Trigo et al., 2002; Bradbury et al., 2003; Krichak and
Alpert, 2005; López-Moreno et al., 2007; Vicente-Serrano
et al., 2011; Santos et al., 2013; Krichak et al., 2014; Ionita
et al., 2014; Santos et al., 2014; Mühlbauer et al., 2016).
Most of earlier studies concerning the impacts of large-scale
atmospheric circulations were only restricted to the temporal
simultaneous and lagged correlation analysis between pre-
dictors and predictand. For example, Ogi et al. (2003) pre-
sented lag correlation results between wintertime NAO and
summertime atmospheric circulations. Trigo et al. (2004)
assessed the impacts of NAO on some hydroclimatological
variability over the Iberian region and showed that all lag-1
correlation coefficients are consistently higher than those of
non-lagged ones for streamflow analysis. Steinschneider and
Brown (2011) suggested a lagged relationship up to 5 months
between summer streamflow and wintertime NAO over the
Connecticut River basin in United States. In addition, a num-
ber of studies evaluated various relationships between large-
scale atmospheric circulations and hydroclimatological vari-
ables (Coleman and Budikova, 2013; Giuntoli et al., 2013;
Salgueiro et al., 2013; Hidalgo-Muñoz et al., 2015). Further-
more, there are different studies assessing the relationship of
teleconnections associated with different hydroclimatic vari-
ables in Turkey (Kutiel et al., 2001; Karabörk et al., 2005;
Kalayci and Kahya, 2006; Saris et al., 2010) and Iran
(Ghasemi and Khalili, 2006; 2008; Raziei et al., 2012;
Tabari et al., 2014).
It is important to note that Turkey and Iran have recently
faced several droughts on varying spatial and temporal
scales (Raziei et al., 2009; Türkeş and Tatli, 2009; Golian
et al., 2014; Bazrafshan et al., 2015; Fazel et al., 2018). Cor-
relation information between the hydroclimatological vari-
ables and large-scale atmospheric oscillations is critical in
understanding drought patterns existing in this region. To
this end, numerous studies have assessed the relationship of
the NAO and AO with different drought types over Turkey
and Iran. For example, Dezfuli et al. (2010) focused on the
relationship of NAO and Southern Oscillation (SO) over the
southwestern Iran and found that autumn rainfall is nega-
tively correlated with NAO. Hosseinzadeh Talaee et al.
(2014) studied the possible association between SO and
NAO with hydrological drought in west of Iran and revealed
that there is a weak relationship between hydrological
drought and NAO. Molavi-Arabshahi et al. (2016) analysed
the impacts of SO and NAO on precipitation and tempera-
ture of southwestern coast of Caspian Sea and found a weak
connection between the precipitation and NAO variability.
There are a few studies concerning the linkage between
extreme phases of NAO and streamflow over Turkey
(Cullen and DeMenocal, 2000; Cullen et al., 2002; Türkeş
and Erlat, 2005); however, no study has appeared to focus
on the relationship of hydrological droughts with the
extreme NAO and AO phases over Turkey and Iran. The
objective of this study is to assess the influence of winter
extreme NAO and AO phases on the short-term (3 months),
mid-term (6 months) and long-term (12 and 24 months)
hydrological drought over Turkey and northern Iran using a
nonparametric drought index so-called the standardized
streamflow index (SSFI). In addition, we attempted to pre-
sent physical explanations behind the mechanism of telecon-
nection between the large-scale atmospheric oscillations and
drought patterns in the study region.
2 | S TUD Y A RE A A ND DA TA
2.1 | Climate of the study area
Turkey is typically classified as a Mediterranean macrocli-
mate, which is defined by hot, dry summers and cool, wet
winters resulting from the seasonal alternation of maritime
subpolar and subtropical air masses (Henderson-Sellers and
Robinson, 1986). The main geographical controls on precip-
itation variability in Turkey are (a) the continental seas
(Mediterranean, Black and Caspian Seas), which provide
natural corridors for frontal cyclones, and (b) a west–east-
oriented mountain range where the forced orographic ascent
of air masses promotes heavy rainfall along windwards
slopes and loss of moisture content resulting from adiabatic
“drying” upon descent along the leewards side (Türkeş,
1996). With an average of 574 mm during 1970–2015, the
spatial distribution of annual precipitation across Turkey
ranges from more than 2,200 mm along the eastern coast of
the Black Sea to less than 350 mm in the semi-arid central
Anatolia region (Turkish State Meteorological Service
annual report, https://www.mgm.gov.tr/).
On the other hand, based on the Köppen climate classifi-
cation (Köppen, 1900), Iran is in a region, which is often
characterized as having an arid and semi-arid climate. The
topography of Iran consists of rugged, mountainous rims
surrounding high interior basins. Along the coast overlook-
ing the Caspian Sea, the climate is mild, almost Mediterra-
nean. In northwestern Iran along the Caspian Sea,
precipitation totals are highest in the nation with rainy, mild
winters and hot, humid summers. Northwestern Iran is
mountainous and generally the coldest region where winters
around Urmia Lake typically fall below −10
C. The
VAZIFEHKHAH AND KAHYA 3

mountains also create a specialized precipitation regime over NH winter sea level pressure (SLP) data, explaining 23% of
northwest Iran compared to other areas because the moun- the extended winter-mean (December–March) variance. It is
tains create barriers against air mass interaction (Ghasemi clearly dominated by the NAO structure in the Atlantic sec-
and Khalili, 2008). tor however; researchers have not yet agreed upon the physi-
cal distinction of NAO from such North Pacific indices
2.2 | Streamflow data (Hurrell and Deser, 2010).
In the spite of the fact that different NAO and AO indi-
Monthly streamflow data for 76 stations in Turkey were
ces has recently been developed in which there is yet glob-
compiled by the General Directorate of State Hydraulic
ally accepted form of NAO and AO indices (Hurrell and
Works (DSI, http://www.dsi.gov.tr) for the period
Deser, 2010). Pokorná and Huth (2014) studied the correla-
1970–2014. For northern Iran, monthly streamflow data for
tion of various NAO indices and climatic factors in Europe
47 stations were acquired from the Iran Water Resources
and revealed remarkable findings such as the sensitivity of
Management Company (IWRMC, http://www.wrm.ir/index.
analysis regarding to the selection of NAO index (NAOI). In
php?l=EN) for the period 1975–2010. Inspection on the
the literature, there are two prominent methods for
streamflow observations showed that less than 1% of our
evaluation of these indices including station SLP-based and
data set contains gaps, which latter were subjected to a data
principal component (PC)-based. The advantages and disad-
filling procedure through the linear regression method using
vantages of these methods are fully described by Hurrell and
observations of neighbouring station(s). The homogeneity of
Deser (2010). PC-based winter (DJF) NAOI, which is more
streamflow series in Turkey was already discussed by Kahya
optimal representation of the full spatial pattern of the NAO
and Karabörk (2001) and partially in Iran noted by Fathian
and being less noisy than station-based indices, was pre-
et al. (2014) and Modarres (2008)); therefore, the stream-
ferred in this study. Moreover, concerning AO, extended
flow data are assumed as homogenous series. Figure 1
wintertime (DJFM) SLP-based AO index has been selected.
shows the geographic location of the study area and spatial
The NAO and AO data sets are collected from the University
distribution of gauging stations. While stations in Turkey are
Corporation for Atmospheric Research (NCAR, 2016a;
covering all of its basins, Urmia Lake basin and several sub-
2016b). The utilized NAO and AO series are standardized
basins of Caspian Sea and central basins of Iran are selected with a mean of zero and standard deviation of one.
to investigate in this study. The altitude of stations varies
from 4 to 1,950 m above mean sea level in Turkey while it
ranges from −5 to 2,203 m in Iran. 3 | METHODOLOGY

2.3 | Large-scale atmospheric circulation indices
In the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere
(NH) during the cold season (November–April), the most
prominent and recurrent pattern of atmospheric variability is
the NAO (Hurrell et al., 2003). AO (Thompson and Wallace,
1998), or as it is more recently referred to the NH annular
mode, is defined as the first empirical orthogonal function of
3.1 | Determination of extreme phases of the NAO
and AO
Several methods for defining extreme phases of different tel-
econnections are previously published in the literature
(e.g., Türkeş and Erlat, 2005; López-Moreno et al., 2007;
Coleman and Budikova, 2013), we selected a value of ±0.05
percentile as a threshold level to identify extreme phases of

N
42ºN Black Sea
W E
41ºN S
Azerbaijan
40ºN

39ºN
Caspian Sea
38ºN

37ºN

36ºN

35ºN Mediterranean Sea

26.00ºE 28.00ºE 30.00ºE 32.00ºE 34.00ºE 36.00ºE 38.00ºE 40.00ºE 42.00ºE 44.00ºE 46.00ºE 48.00ºE 50.00ºE 52.00ºE 54.00ºE

FIGURE 1 The study area of Turkey and northern Iran with circles representing the streamflow gauging stations [Colour figure can be viewed at
wileyonlinelibrary.com]
4 VAZIFEHKHAH AND KAHYA
NAO and AO. Because the compiled indices are assumed to
follow a normal distribution, we decided to define an index
value of NAO/AO to be positive (negative) extreme if it is
greater (lower) than +1.645 (−1.645) standard deviation of
the NAO/AO series. We believe that the threshold we
defined is revealing the realistic meaning of extreme phases
of NAO and AO explaining the 5th and 95th percentiles of
the normal distribution. As a result, a set of negative extreme
years is identified as 1977, 1979 and 2010 for the NAO, and
1970, 1977 and 2010 for the AO. The set of positive extreme
years for the NAO are 1989, 1990, 1992 and 2000 and for
the AO are 1989, 1990, 1992 and 1993. Because of close
physical mechanism between the NAO and AO, it is not sur-
prising to observe the proximate isochronism of identified
extreme phases for the NAO and AO.
3.2 | Standardized streamflow index
The common parametric indices, for example, SDI
(Nalbantis and Tsakiris, 2009) based on lognormal probabil-
ity distribution and standardized runoff index (SRI) (Shukla
and Wood, 2008) based on Gamma and lognormal distribu-
tions have been widely used in the hydrological drought
assessment, if the streamflow data of interest were proven to
follow a known probability distribution function. In order to
decide whether we need to use a parametric or nonparamet-
ric approach to define hydrological drought index, we exam-
ined how well the streamflow series fit to common
probability distributions, (Vicente-serrano et al., 2012) such
as lognormal (LN), Pearson type III (P-III), log-logistic (L-
log), generalized extreme value (GEV) and Weibull (WEI-)
using a goodness of fit technique as Kolmogorov–Smirnov
test at 90% confidence level. Our results showed that 97 out
123 stations did not follow the LN distribution, similarly
113 (117, 98 and 100) for the P-III (L-log, GEV and WEI-)
(Table A1). Furthermore, the respective non-confirmation
percentage of the aforementioned distributions are 79, 92,
95, 80 and 81. It is important to note that there no exists a
criteria in the literature to select either parametric or non-
parametric approach to define drought index if someone has
a certain value of non-confirmation percentage. Although
the value of the lowest percentage belonging to LN is
79, we, therefore, did not feel comfortable to go for working
with a parametric hydrological drought index because we
would have to eliminate many stations from our data sets.
For all the reasons, we shaped our final decision in favour of
using a nonparametric hydrological drought index. In fact,
this conclusion did not come to surprise because the variabil-
ity and corresponding probability distribution of streamflow
series in a large area like ours dramatically varies from one
station to another.
Farahmand and AghaKouchak (2015) proposed to
derive a marginal probability of precipitation (and other
variables) using the empirical Gringorten (1963) plotting
position,
i− 0:44
p ðxi Þ = , ð1Þ
n +0:12
where n is the sample size, i denotes the rank of non-zero
precipitation data from the smallest and p(xi) is the corre-
sponding empirical probability. The outputs of Equation (1)
can be transformed to the standardized index (SI) as
SI =ϕ − 1 ðpÞ, ð2Þ
where ϕ is the standard normal distribution function and p is
probability derived from Equation (1). One can also stan-
dardize the percentiles using the following commonly used
approximation of Equation (2):
8

>
> c0 + c1 t + c2 t 2
< − t− if 0<p≤0:5

1 +d1 t +d2 t 2 +d3 t 3
SI = , ð3Þ
>
> c0 +c1 t + c2 t 2
: + t− if 0:5<p≤1
1 +d1 t +d2 t 2 + d3 t 3
where c0 = 2.515517; c1 = 0:802583; c2 = 0:010328;
d1 = 1:432788; d2 = 0:189269; d3 = 0:001308 and
8 qffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
>
< ln p12
t = qffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi: ð4Þ
>
: ln ð1−1pÞ2
This algorithm could be used for any variable such as
streamflow to derive hydrological droughts. A sequence of
positive SSFI indicates a wetness period, as does a sequence
of negative values for a dry period (Farahmand and Agha-
Kouchak, 2015).
In order to analyse drought temporal patterns comprehen-
sively, we processed the SSFI series for the short-term
(3 months), mid-term (6 months) and long-term (12 and
24 months) periods. To show the influences of the NAO/AO
on the short-term hydrological droughts across our study
domain, we used winter (extended winter) large-scale atmo-
spheric oscillation indices and grouped the SSFI series into four
3-month seasons as (a) lag-0 season (DJF), (b) lag-1 season
(MAM), (c) lag-2 season (JJA) and (d) lag-3 season (SON).
Regarding the mid-term droughts, we formed two 6-month
SSFI series; one spanning from December to May (DJFMAM)
and other with the period June–November (JJASON). We
formed the SSFI having a length of 12- and 24-month series
based on the period December–November. After setting up
eight distinct SSFI series, the next analysis step is to form a
composite SSFI using the positive and negative years of the
extreme NAO and AO phases identified in section 3.1.
4 | RESULTS
4.1 | Extreme negative NAO and AO impacts on the
SSFI patterns
The boxplots representing different SSFI series during extreme
negative phases of NAO and AO are presented in Figure 2.
VAZIFEHKHAH AND KAHYA 5

Considering extreme negative NAO and AO impact on
short-term SSFIs, generally there are wet conditions in win-
ter (DJF) across Turkey and, to a lesser extent, in Iran.
Sixty-six out of 76 stations have positive SSFIs for winter in
Turkey whereas 31 out of 47 stations experienced wet condi-
tion in Iran during negative NAO extreme phases. This
short-term wetness condition has continued for the following
spring with an average of 0.17 (0.22) during the negative
NAO (AO) extreme phases, while near-normal condition
dominates on the following summer and autumn in Turkey.
A similar pattern was not observed in Iran where the average
short-term outcomes are almost zero during the following
seasons.
Focusing on the mid-term droughts, there is a contrast
between first 6-month period outcomes for Turkey and Iran,
in which the average of DJFMAM records for Turkey is
0.39 (0.44) while for Iran is −0.01 (−0.09) during NAO
(AO) extreme phases, respectively. This dissimilarity disap-
peared during second 6-month period (JJASON) where the
average SSFIs for all cases are almost zero across the study
area. Furthermore, the least values are associated with
24-month period during negative AO extreme phases in both
Turkey and Iran.
Figure 3 illustrates the spatial pattern of various SSFI
series at several short-, mid- and long-term periods. It is
clearly recognizable that there is a resembling pattern for
NAO (AO) in all seasons. The condition in winter is simi-
lar for NAO and AO with only further positive results
associated with NAO in Turkey (Figure 3a,i). The out-
comes belong to the vertical strip located in the central
parts of Turkey are the highest records during extreme
negative NAO and AO phases in winter; however, few sta-
tions in northwestern and northeastern regions of Turkey
and the sporadic stations located in Iran faced drought in
winter. The positive results associated with spring show
three distinct regions located in western, central and east-
ern central of Turkey (Figure 3b,j). The outcomes associ-
ated with summer follow the same pattern as mentioned in
spring with only lower (higher) tolerance for Turkey (Iran)
(Figure 3c,k). The mentioned condition has been repeated
during latter autumn in the study area; however, the num-
ber of negative records has increased associated with the
AO (Figure 3d,l).
Focusing on the 6-month SSFI outcomes in association
with extreme negative phases, the pattern is similar for the
NAO and AO. Concerning the DJFMAM period, except
northeastern region of Turkey and scarce spots clustered in
central north of Iran, all of the stations experienced above
zero records (Figure 3e,m). Contrary to the DJFMAM
period, this pattern changed dramatically during JJASON, in
which drought occurred in multiple levels especially in the
Black Sea coasts and southern parts of Turkey along with

1.5

0.5
SSFI

–0.5

–1

DJF MAM JJA SON DJFMAM JJASON 12 months 24 months DJF MAM JJA SON DJFMAM JJASON 12 months 24 months
NAO– AO–

1.5

0.5
SSFI

–0.5

–1

–1.5

–2

DJF MAM JJA SON DJFMAM JJASON 12 months 24 months DJF MAM JJA SON DJFMAM JJASON 12 months 24 months
NAO– AO–

FIGURE 2 Boxplots for various SSFI series during negative extreme phases of NAO and AO in Turkey (top) and Iran (bottom) [Colour figure can be
viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]
6 VAZIFEHKHAH AND KAHYA

42ºN Black Sea Black Sea

(a) (i)
40ºN

Caspian Sea Caspian Sea

38ºN

36ºN Mediterranean Sea Mediterranean Sea

42ºN Black Sea Black Sea

(b) (j)
40ºN

Caspian Sea Caspian Sea

38ºN

36ºN Mediterranean Sea Mediterranean Sea

42ºN Black Sea Black Sea

(c) (k)
40ºN

Caspian Sea Caspian Sea

38ºN

36ºN Mediterranean Sea Mediterranean Sea

Black Sea Black Sea

42ºN (d) (l)
40ºN

Caspian Sea Caspian Sea

38ºN

36ºN
Mediterranean Sea Mediterranean Sea

42ºN Black Sea Black Sea

(e) (m)
40ºN

Caspian Sea Caspian Sea

38ºN

36ºN
Mediterranean Sea Mediterranean Sea

42ºN Black Sea Black Sea

(f) (n)
40ºN

Caspian Sea Caspian Sea

38ºN

36ºN
Mediterranean Sea Mediterranean Sea

42ºN Black Sea Black Sea

(g) (o)
40ºN

Caspian Sea Caspian Sea

38ºN

36ºN Mediterranean Sea Mediterranean Sea

42ºN Black Sea

(h) Black Sea
(p)
40ºN

Caspian Sea Caspian Sea

38ºN

36ºN Mediterranean Sea Mediterranean Sea

26ºE 28ºE 30ºE 32ºE 34ºE 36ºE 38ºE 40ºE 42ºE 44ºE 46ºE 48ºE 50ºE 52ºE 54ºE 26ºE 28ºE 30ºE 32ºE 34ºE 36ºE 38ºE 40ºE 42ºE 44ºE 46ºE 48ºE 50ºE 52ºE 54ºE

–2.0 –1.5 –1.0 –0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

FIGURE 3 The spatial pattern of SSFI during negative extreme phases of NAO for DJF (a), MAM (b), JJA (c), SON (d), DJFMAM (e), JJASON (f ),
12-month (g), 24-month (h) and negative extreme phases of AO for DJF (i), MAM (j), JJA (k), SON (l), DJFMAM (m), JJASON (n), 12-month (o), 24-month
(p) [Colour figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]

the northwestern region of Iran (Figure 3f,n). The long-term
SSFI results show significant differences between Turkey
and Iran. Based on the 12-month period from December to
November, a segregated regions located in the northern Tur-
key have faced drought in which for Iran, most of the study
area experienced multiple drought levels excepts those
located in the vicinity of Turkish border (Figure 3g,o). This
discrepancy between Iran and Turkey has exacerbated for
the 24-month period particularly during the negative AO
extreme phases (Figure 3h,p).
VAZIFEHKHAH AND KAHYA 7

4.2 | Extreme positive NAO and AO impacts on the
SSFI patterns
Figure 4 demonstrates the boxplots showing that how the
positive extreme phases of NAO influence on different SSFI
periods.
Focusing on the 3-month SSFIs, the outputs illustrate
respective negative average values across Turkey associated
with the NAO and AO (−0.14 and −0.13) in winter as the
average of SSFIs is almost zero for NAO and 0.16 for AO
for the case of Iran. The similar results in winter have contin-
ued during spring in Turkey with a little increase in range of
outputs and decrease in minimum records with an average of
−0.17 and −0.39 for the positive NAO and AO extreme
phases, respectively. This dry condition disappears in the
following summer, but appears in autumn with the least
magnitudes across Turkey. The outputs obtained for SSFI
series during following seasons associated with the positive
extreme phases of NAO and AO for Iran show dominant
wet conditions. Considering 6-month periods, the average of
outputs for the DJFMAM period across Turkey is −0.2 and
−0.38 regarding respective NAO and AO positive extreme
phases whereas the values of SSFI abruptly increased in the
JJASON period. It is worth noting that the extreme positive
phases of NAO and AO cause dryness condition in all time-
scales except summer in Turkey, whereas they cause to
increase SSFIs in Iran for all cases particularly those associ-
ated with the AO.
Figure 5 depicts the spatial pattern of the derived results
for the extreme positive phases of NAO and AO. Similar to
the case of the negative extreme phases, the pattern resem-
bles each other between NAO and AO cases. A large area
with drought occurrences is observed across western and
eastern (western) Turkey during winter in association with
NAO (AO), while negative SSFIs were found at stations dis-
persedly located in Iran except those at Caspian Sea coasts
(Figure 5a,i). The spatial condition of SSFIs during spring is
similar to winter except with the increase for the outputs
related to central Turkey and Iran (Figure 5b,j). The scheme
of SSFIs during autumn is similar to that in winter in the
study area except with decreased records obtained for west-
ern Turkey (Figure 5d,l).
The pattern associated with DJFMAM (JJASON) period
is very similar to DJF (JJA) (Figure 5e,f,m,n). The long-time
SSFIs also reveal that dry conditions dominate western Tur-
key, whereas the opposite condition prevails in Iran
(Figure 5g,h,o,p). Generally, the spatial patterns of SSFI
associated with the positive AO extreme phases at all time-
scales exhibit more positive anomaly in Iran compared to
those of the NAO; however, this discordance becomes very
limited for the case of Turkey.

1.5

0.5
SSFI

–0.5

–1

–1.5

DJF MAM JJA SON DJFMAM JJASON 12 months 24 months DJF MAM JJA SON DJFMAM JJASON 12 months 24 months
NAO– AO–

1.5

0.5
SSFI

–0.5

–1
DJF MAM JJA SON DJFMAM JJASON 12 months 24 months DJF MAM JJA SON DJFMAM JJASON 12 months 24 months
NAO– AO–

FIGURE 4 Boxplots for various SSFI series during positive extreme phases of NAO and AO in Turkey (top) and Iran (bottom) [Colour figure can be viewed
at wileyonlinelibrary.com]
8 VAZIFEHKHAH AND KAHYA

42ºN Black Sea

(a) Black Sea (i)
40ºN

Caspian Sea Caspian Sea

38ºN

36ºN Mediterranean Sea Mediterranean Sea

Black Sea Black Sea

42ºN (b) (j)
40ºN

Caspian Sea Caspian Sea

38ºN

36ºN Mediterranean Sea Mediterranean Sea

Black Sea
42ºN Black Sea
(c) (k)
40ºN

Caspian Sea Caspian Sea

38ºN

36ºN Mediterranean Sea Mediterranean Sea

42ºN Black Sea (d) Black Sea (l)

40ºN

Caspian Sea Caspian Sea

38ºN

36ºN
Mediterranean Sea Mediterranean Sea

Black Sea Black Sea

42ºN (e) (m)
40ºN

Caspian Sea Caspian Sea

38ºN

36ºN Mediterranean Sea Mediterranean Sea

Black Sea
42ºN (f) Black Sea
(n)
40ºN
Caspian Sea Caspian Sea
38ºN

36ºN Mediterranean Sea Mediterranean Sea

42ºN Black Sea Black Sea

(g) (o)
40ºN

Caspian Sea Caspian Sea

38ºN

36ºN Mediterranean Sea Mediterranean Sea

42ºN Black Sea (h) Black Sea

(p)
40ºN

Caspian Sea Caspian Sea

38ºN

36ºN Mediterranean Sea Mediterranean Sea

26ºE 28ºE 30ºE 32ºE 34ºE 36ºE 38ºE 40ºE 42ºE 44ºE 46ºE 48ºE 50ºE 52ºE 54ºE 26ºE 28ºE 30ºE 32ºE 34ºE 36ºE 38ºE 40ºE 42ºE 44ºE 46ºE 48ºE 50ºE 52ºE 54ºE

–2.0 –1.5 –1.0 –0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

FIGURE 5 The spatial pattern of SSFI during positive extreme phases of NAO for DJF (a), MAM (b), JJA (c), SON (d), DJFMAM (e), JJASON (f ),
12-month (g), 24-month (h) and positive extreme phases of AO for DJF (i), MAM (j), JJA (k), SON (l), DJFMAM (m), JJASON (n), 12-month (o), 24-month
(p) [Colour figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]

4.3 | Correlation analysis
Furthermore, because of low data lengths associated with
defined extreme phases to use in correlation assessments, to
make realistic and practical analyses, we attempt to evaluate
20th and 80th percentiles with the extracted NAO/AO indi-
ces. The obtained positive and negative cycles for NAO/AO
indices are presented in Table 1. For this purpose, we calcu-
lated the Pearson’s correlation coefficient between monthly
winter (December–February) NAOI and corresponding
3-month SSFI series on winter (December–February) for the
negative/positive cycles. The monthly extended-winter
(December–March) AO index has been assessed for the
VAZIFEHKHAH AND KAHYA
same analysis with corresponding 3-month SSFI series on
extended winter (December–March).
The results of Pearson’s correlation coefficient at 95%
confidence level are presented in Figure 6. Majority of the
stations depicted a negative correlation between negative
NAO cycles and corresponding SSFIs for Turkey
(Figure 6a). Contrary to the results obtained for Turkey,
there was a strong positive correlation between negative
NAO cycles and corresponding SSFIs in northwestern Iran;
however, the southern Caspian Sea region does not show a
strong relation. The analysis regarding positive NAO cycles
and corresponding SSFIs does not show a strong correlation
for whole study area where, only two of 123 stations showed
a significant relation at 95% confidence level (Figure 6b).
Similar to the relation of negative NAO cycles and corre-
sponding SSFIs showed in Figure 6a, there was a negative
(positive) correlation between negative AO cycles and SSFIs
in Turkey (Iran) (Figure 6c). Contrary to the results showed
in Figure 6a, eastern Turkey showed a stronger relationship
than compared with western regions. Several stations
depicted a strong positive correlation between positive AO
cycles and SSFIs in eastern and northeastern Turkey while
only 3 out of 47 stations showed a strong positive correlation
in Iran (Figure 6d). Detailed information of the correlation
analysis is presented in Table 2.
4.4 | Physical mechanisms of NAO extreme phases
over drought variability
Majority of the previous studies concerning the impacts of
NAO and other large-scale atmospheric circulations in Tur-
key and Iran have focused on the statistical connections with
common surface climatic variables but did not provide
explanations for physical mechanisms behind the detected
relationships. In order to gain a clear understanding of the
extreme phases influence on the surface drought variability
in the study area we extracted composite maps from Physical
Sciences Division of National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA/PSD: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/
psd, https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/
printpage.pl) to prepare the surface SLP, geopotential height
(GPH) at 500 hPa, vector winds at 500 hPa and surface air
temperature (SAT) anomaly maps. Because the teleconnec-
tion of NAO with precipitation has been fully described by
TABLE 1 The obtained positive and negative cycles for NAO/AO indices
based on 20th and 80th percentiles
Cycles Years
NAO− 1970–1977–1979–1985–1986–1996–2010–2011a
NAO+ 1973–1975–1976–1981–1983–1984–1989–1990–1991–1992–
1993–1995–1999–2000–2005–2008–2012a
AO− 1970–1977–1979–1985–1996–2006–2010–2013a
AO+ 1973–1975–1976–1989–1990–1992–1993–1995–1997–2000–
2002–2007–2008–2012a–2014a
a
Only utilized for analysis of the stations located in Turkey.
9
Türkeş and Erlat (2005) over Turkey and Ghasemi and kha-
lili (2008) in Iran, we did not explain the teleconnection of
precipitation in this study. Because of the proximate syn-
chronism in the NAO and AO extreme phases, it is decided
to investigate this subject only on the effect of NAO.
Figures 7 and 8 illustrate different conditions for the
mentioned climatic factors. It is clear that the both NAO
extreme phases brought out the well-known pattern in which
there are remarkable atmospheric pressure differences with
the long-term mean conditions (Figure 7a–f ). Surface SLP
anomaly shows an opposite pattern during the negative and
positive phases extending far to the northwestern Iran. Dur-
ing the negative extreme phases, Turkey and northwestern
Iran have experienced a slightly low-pressure system while a
weak high-pressure system is the dominating pattern during
the positive phases. Focusing on negative (positive) 500-hPa
GPH anomaly, it clearly manifests a strong low (high) pres-
sure centre near southern Britain, whose footprints even
extend to the northwestern Turkey. A southwest–northeast
high- (low-) pressure region in the 500-hPa GPH composite
anomaly pattern exists during negative (positive) NAO
extreme phases over northeastern Africa and extending to
northwestern Russia (Figure 7d,f ). Considering vector wind
at 500 hPa, there is a counter clockwise (clockwise) pattern
over Europe and northwestern Africa during negative (posi-
tive) extreme phases (Figure 8a,c), which has reached central
Turkey in a weaker magnitude. The above-(below-) normal
anomaly of SAT is obvious during negative (positive)
extreme phases over the study area (Figure 8d,f ).
Although the extreme negative NAO phases leads to
enhance the mid-latitude westerlies over western Mediterra-
nean Sea towards Turkey (Figure 7a), a weak high-pressure
system which extends from northern Caspian Sea to the
northern Africa deflects these winds northwards to the east-
ern Europe. Thus, only western to central parts of Turkey
are directly influenced by these atmospheric rivers, which
bring moisture from the Atlantic Ocean. The typical pattern
during the negative NAO extreme phases reveals the impacts
on streamflow at weaker intensity at northern and northwest-
ern Iran; however, topographic effects further enhance rain-
generating mechanisms in the mountainous northern and
northwestern regions along southern Caspian Sea coasts.
During the positive extreme phases of NAO, there is a
strengthening of westerly winds from northeastern Africa
towards southern Iran (Figure 8c), which veers northeasterly
near southwestern Iran and enhanced by a weak high-
pressure system over Indian Ocean. The associated wind pat-
terns are consistent with the low pressure at 500 hPa GPH
anomaly centred over Kazakhstan, Syria and the northwest-
ern African coast (Figure 7f ). The typical positive NAO
extreme phases pattern also reveals a strong low-pressure
system located in the northern Caspian Sea, which might
bring favourable precipitation occurrences over northern
Turkey and Iran.
10 VAZIFEHKHAH AND KAHYA

N
42ºN Black Sea
W E (a)
41ºN S
Azerbaijan
40ºN
39ºN
Caspian Sea
38ºN
37ºN
36ºN
35ºN Mediterranean Sea
26.00ºE 28.00ºE 30.00ºE 32.00ºE 34.00ºE 36.00ºE 38.00ºE 40.00ºE 42.00ºE 44.00ºE 46.00ºE 48.00ºE 50.00ºE 52.00ºE 54.00ºE
N
42ºN Black Sea
W E (b)
41ºN S
Azerbaijan
40ºN
39ºN
Caspian Sea
38ºN
37ºN
36ºN
35ºN Mediterranean Sea
26.00ºE 28.00ºE 30.00ºE 32.00ºE 34.00ºE 36.00ºE 38.00ºE 40.00ºE 42.00ºE 44.00ºE 46.00ºE 48.00ºE 50.00ºE 52.00ºE 54.00ºE
N
42ºN Black Sea
W E (c)
41ºN S
Azerbaijan
40ºN
39ºN
Caspian Sea
38ºN
37ºN
36ºN
35ºN Mediterranean Sea
26.00ºE 28.00ºE 30.00ºE 32.00ºE 34.00ºE 36.00ºE 38.00ºE 40.00ºE 42.00ºE 44.00ºE 46.00ºE 48.00ºE 50.00ºE 52.00ºE 54.00ºE
N
42ºN Black Sea
W E (d)
41ºN S
Azerbaijan
40ºN
39ºN
Caspian Sea
38ºN
37ºN
36ºN
35ºN Mediterranean Sea
26.00ºE 28.00ºE 30.00ºE 32.00ºE 34.00ºE 36.00ºE 38.00ºE 40.00ºE 42.00ºE 44.00ºE 46.00ºE 48.00ºE 50.00ºE 52.00ºE 54.00ºE

FIGURE 6 The correlation coefficients between extracted NAO (AO) for negative/positive cycles and corresponding SSFIs (a/b, c/d). The asterisks indicate
significant correlations at 95% confidence level. The upwards (downwards) arrows indicate a positive (negative) correlation. The size of arrows is proportional
to the magnitude of correlations: from the smallest (~0) and highest (~0.58) [Colour figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]

5 | DISCUSSION and effect factors are crucial in order to justify study find-
ings. Although a considerable amount of studies is lacking
In a climate-based research study, the efforts in regard to of this important part, we here particularly aimed to put for-
explaining possible physical mechanisms between the cause ward such explanations behind the NAO and drought
VAZIFEHKHAH AND KAHYA 11

TABLE 2 The correlation coefficients between extracted NAO/AO for negative/positive cycles and corresponding SSFIs. The bold values indicate
significant correlations at 5% significance level
St. No. NAO− NAO+ AO− AO+ St. No. NAO− NAO+ AO− AO+ St. No. NAO− NAO+ AO− AO+
1 −0.38 −0.03 −0.12 −0.27 42 −0.33 0.02 −0.25 −0.04 83 0.20 −0.04 0.21 0.23
2 −0.17 −0.02 −0.15 −0.10 43 −0.33 0.09 −0.31 0.02 84 0.09 −0.04 0.11 0.15
3 −0.40 −0.10 −0.22 −0.09 44 −0.26 0.06 −0.18 −0.01 85 0.46 0.04 0.42 0.01
4 −0.40 0.01 −0.30 −0.06 45 −0.33 −0.04 −0.29 −0.04 86 0.30 −0.08 0.35 0.16
5 −0.51 −0.14 −0.28 −0.05 46 −0.22 −0.03 −0.22 −0.05 87 0.16 −0.06 0.10 0.16
6 −0.14 −0.01 −0.21 0.18 47 −0.49 0.11 −0.27 −0.04 88 0.00 0.16 0.22 0.29
7 −0.57 −0.15 −0.26 0.10 48 −0.19 0.08 −0.37 0.18 89 0.01 0.31 0.21 0.34
8 −0.43 −0.14 −0.16 −0.13 49 −0.45 −0.06 −0.38 0.04 90 0.08 0.06 0.33 0.26
9 −0.53 −0.09 −0.14 −0.14 50 −0.51 −0.05 −0.29 −0.04 91 0.30 −0.03 0.13 0.10
10 −0.41 0.05 −0.23 −0.09 51 −0.12 0.19 −0.35 0.33 92 0.37 0.13 0.11 0.07
11 −0.41 −0.22 −0.22 −0.24 52 −0.32 0.09 −0.33 0.38 93 0.32 0.09 0.12 0.08
12 −0.36 −0.20 −0.35 −0.19 53 −0.40 −0.16 −0.43 0.00 94 0.47 0.01 −0.01 0.07
13 −0.40 −0.18 −0.25 −0.11 54 −0.30 0.11 −0.25 0.24 95 0.40 0.09 0.29 0.15
14 −0.30 −0.11 −0.39 −0.20 55 −0.44 0.24 −0.26 0.18 96 0.43 0.01 0.12 0.07
15 −0.48 −0.12 −0.33 −0.16 56 −0.11 0.10 −0.01 0.07 97 0.39 0.04 0.30 0.13
16 −0.35 −0.08 −0.30 −0.14 57 −0.11 0.10 −0.20 0.17 98 0.39 0.07 0.32 0.18
17 −0.13 −0.17 −0.31 −0.12 58 0.09 −0.16 0.16 −0.07 99 0.28 −0.08 0.47 0.04
18 −0.29 −0.05 −0.27 −0.09 59 −0.28 0.12 −0.30 0.31 100 0.50 0.01 0.31 0.04
19 −0.36 0.00 −0.26 −0.13 60 0.09 0.08 −0.07 0.16 101 0.46 0.09 0.20 0.09
20 −0.19 0.00 −0.31 −0.10 61 −0.36 0.08 −0.42 0.08 102 0.24 −0.05 0.14 0.18
21 −0.40 −0.21 −0.05 −0.10 62 −0.17 0.06 −0.32 0.22 103 0.03 −0.04 0.23 0.17
22 0.15 −0.03 0.03 0.08 63 −0.34 0.05 −0.32 0.26 104 −0.20 −0.02 0.13 0.14
23 −0.37 0.04 −0.07 −0.01 64 −0.14 0.29 −0.25 0.26 105 0.06 −0.21 0.19 −0.12
24 −0.39 −0.12 0.20 −0.01 65 −0.34 0.25 −0.27 0.32 106 0.19 0.12 0.22 0.17
25 −0.33 −0.02 −0.24 −0.09 66 −0.06 −0.01 −0.06 0.23 107 −0.15 0.04 −0.03 0.15
26 −0.31 −0.16 −0.05 −0.17 67 −0.31 0.05 −0.26 0.34 108 −0.15 −0.14 0.09 −0.01
27 −0.32 −0.01 −0.03 −0.21 68 −0.27 −0.03 −0.28 0.07 109 −0.04 −0.08 0.08 0.17
28 −0.22 0.23 −0.05 −0.14 69 −0.38 −0.16 −0.21 0.13 110 0.30 −0.03 0.42 0.05
29 −0.31 0.07 −0.22 −0.10 70 −0.29 −0.01 −0.18 0.15 111 0.32 0.03 0.37 0.05
30 −0.29 0.12 −0.20 0.32 71 −0.32 −0.15 −0.29 0.09 112 −0.25 0.06 −0.21 0.28
31 −0.17 0.03 −0.16 −0.01 72 −0.33 0.06 −0.33 0.00 113 0.13 0.12 −0.23 0.14
32 −0.29 0.11 −0.24 0.23 73 −0.45 0.16 −0.30 0.08 114 0.21 −0.04 −0.08 0.03
33 −0.08 0.18 −0.16 0.22 74 −0.37 0.03 −0.23 0.09 115 0.09 −0.01 0.20 0.17
34 −0.14 0.04 0.05 0.29 75 −0.26 0.00 −0.20 −0.11 116 0.20 0.01 0.17 0.02
35 0.33 −0.22 −0.22 −0.16 76 −0.17 −0.05 0.01 0.08 117 −0.17 −0.03 −0.13 −0.03
36 −0.33 −0.21 −0.22 0.08 77 0.48 −0.10 0.49 0.16 118 0.08 0.12 −0.09 −0.17
37 −0.34 −0.11 −0.29 0.00 78 0.37 0.03 0.31 0.16 119 −0.09 0.04 0.06 −0.17
38 −0.58 0.10 −0.17 0.24 79 0.33 0.16 0.26 0.32 120 −0.30 −0.04 −0.10 0.12
39 −0.26 −0.05 −0.08 −0.01 80 0.48 −0.15 0.33 0.01 121 −0.40 0.07 −0.16 0.09
40 −0.19 −0.12 −0.23 0.11 81 0.29 −0.09 0.47 −0.18 122 −0.22 0.02 −0.10 0.04
41 −0.28 0.01 −0.27 0.10 82 0.09 0.03 0.33 0.02 123 −0.13 0.25 0.10 0.36

teleconnections in our study area. For this purpose, we
formed composite anomaly maps using different atmo-
spheric variables such as surface SLP, GPH at 500 hPa, vec-
tor winds at 500 hPa and SAT to connect shifts in
atmospheric circulation associated with its extreme phases
and hydrological drought. Our wind patterns are well consis-
tent with the indications of Karaca et al. (2000), who stated
the four main cyclone track paths bringing moisture to Tur-
key. The 500-hPa GPH patterns, which we extracted during
the negative NAO extreme phases, are pointing to the third
and fourth cyclone tracks. They also stated that the fre-
quency of these tracks is high in winter. The composite
anomaly of GPH at 500 hPa associated with wind patterns at
the same level are similar to those found by Ghasemi and
Khalili (2008), who assigned these conditions with wet years
in Iran. They also found that wet years in Iran are owing to
negative centres over Kazakhstan, Syria and northwestern
Africa at 500-hPa GPH. The results for SAT are consistent
12 VAZIFEHKHAH AND KAHYA

70ºN 70ºN
NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division

65ºN 65ºN

60ºN 60ºN

55ºN 55ºN

50ºN 50ºN

45ºN 45ºN

40ºN 40ºN

35ºN 35ºN

30ºN 30ºN

25ºN 25ºN

20ºN 20ºN

15ºN 15ºN
(a) (d)
10ºN 10ºN
20ºW 10ºW 0 10ºE 20ºE 30ºE 40ºE 50ºE 60ºE 70ºE 20ºW 10ºW 0 10ºE 20ºE 30ºE 40ºE 50ºE 60ºE 70ºE
Dec–Feb: 1977,1979,2010 Dec–Feb: 1977,1979,2010

–10 –8 –6 –4 –2 0 2 4 6 8 10 –100 –80 –60 –40 –20 0 20 40 60 80 100

70ºN 70ºN
NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division

65ºN 65ºN

60ºN 60ºN

55ºN 55ºN

50ºN 50ºN

45ºN 45ºN

40ºN 40ºN

35ºN 35ºN

30ºN 30ºN

25ºN 25ºN

20ºN 20ºN

15ºN 15ºN
(b) (e)
10ºN 10ºN
20ºW 10ºW 0 10ºE 20ºE 30ºE 40ºE 50ºE 60ºE 70ºE 20ºW 10ºW 0 10ºE 20ºE 30ºE 40ºE 50ºE 60ºE 70ºE
Dec–Feb: Dec–Feb:

1002 1005 1008 1011 1014 1017 1020 1023 1026 1029 5200 5300 5400 5500 5600 5700 5800
70ºN 70ºN
NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division

65ºN 65ºN

60ºN 60ºN

55ºN 55ºN

50ºN 50ºN

45ºN 45ºN

40ºN 40ºN

35ºN 35ºN

30ºN 30ºN

25ºN 25ºN

20ºN 20ºN

15ºN
(c) 15ºN (f)
10ºN 10ºN
20ºW 10ºW 0 10ºE 20ºE 30ºE 40ºE 50ºE 60ºE 70ºE 20ºW 10ºW 0 10ºE 20ºE 30ºE 40ºE 50ºE 60ºE 70ºE
Dec–Feb: 1989,1992,1993,2000 Dec–Feb: 1989,1992,1993,2000

–6 –4 –2 0 2 4 6
–80 –60 –40 –20 0 20 40 60 80

FIGURE 7 Composite maps of anomalous SLP and 500-hPa GPH during extreme negative phases (a, d) long-term mean conditions (b, e) and extreme
positive phases (c, f ), respectively [Colour figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]

with those found by Molavi-Arabshahi et al. (2016) where particularly in northern and northwestern Iran. Hosseinzadeh
they exhibited that NAO is negatively correlated with 2-m Talaee et al. (2014) explained several weak correlations
temperature at southern coasts of Caspian Sea. The compos- between hydrological drought and winter NAO in western
ite anomalous maps depicted in Figure 8d–f improves their Iran. Our findings improve their suggestions with focusing
findings, suggesting that NAO strongly controls temperature on the amplitude of NAOI with different timescale/lag
VAZIFEHKHAH AND KAHYA 13

70ºN 70ºN
NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division

65ºN
(a) 65ºN
(b)
60ºN 60ºN

55ºN 55ºN

50ºN 50ºN

45ºN 45ºN

40ºN 40ºN

35ºN 35ºN

30ºN 30ºN

25ºN 25ºN

20ºN 20ºN

15ºN 15ºN

10ºN 10ºN
20ºW 10ºW 0 10ºE 20ºE 30ºE 40ºE 50ºE 60ºE 70ºE 20ºW 10ºW 0 10ºE 20ºE 30ºE 40ºE 50ºE 60ºE 70ºE
Dec–Feb: 1977,1979,2010 Dec–Feb: 1977,1979,2010

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 –5 –4 –3 –2 –1 0 1 2 3 4 5
70ºN 70ºN
(c) NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division
(d) NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division

65ºN 65ºN

60ºN 60ºN

55ºN 55ºN

50ºN 50ºN

45ºN 45ºN

40ºN 40ºN

35ºN 35ºN

30ºN 30ºN

25ºN 25ºN

20ºN 20ºN

15ºN 15ºN

10ºN 10ºN
20ºW 10ºW 0 10ºE 20ºE 30ºE 40ºE 50ºE 60ºE 70ºE 20ºW 10ºW 0 10ºE 20ºE 30ºE 40ºE 50ºE 60ºE 70ºE
Dec–Feb: 1977,1979,2010 Dec–Feb: 1977,1979,2010

2 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 –20 –15 –10 –5 0 5 10 15 20 25

70ºN
(e) NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division
70ºN
(f) NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division

65ºN 65ºN

60ºN 60ºN

55ºN 55ºN

50ºN 50ºN

45ºN 45ºN

40ºN 40ºN

35ºN 35ºN

30ºN 30ºN

25ºN 25ºN

20ºN 20ºN

15ºN 15ºN

10ºN 10ºN
20ºW 10ºW 0 10ºE 20ºE 30ºE 40ºE 50ºE 60ºE 70ºE 20ºW 10ºW 0 10ºE 20ºE 30ºE 40ºE 50ºE 60ºE 70ºE
Dec–Feb: 1989,1992,1993,2000 Dec–Feb: 1989,1992,1993,2000

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 –4 –3 –2 –1 0 1 2 3 4

FIGURE 8 Composite maps of anomalous 500 hPa vector winds and SAT during extreme negative phases (a, d) long-term mean conditions (b, e) and
extreme positive phases (c, f ), respectively [Colour figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]

responses. In addition, our analysis revealed various correla- between the eastern Mediterranean and Atlantic sector is
tions in different timescale/lag in the study area; the presented expected because the NAO controls Atlantic heat and mois-
typical extreme phases explained the potential impacts of ture fluxes into the Mediterranean region. Because winter
NAO and AO over Iran. Kahya (2011) documented the cyclones are the dominant source of middle eastern rainfall
impacts of the NAO on the hydrology of eastern Mediterra- and streamflow, changes in Atlantic westerly heat/moisture
nean countries from a general perspective with a special transport and Atlantic/Mediterranean SSTs in relation to the
attention focusing on the NAO influences on the formation of NAO are expected to influence the middle eastern climate.
streamflow homogeneous region and on the probability distri- Considering the impacts of positive NAO and AO
bution functions of critical droughts. He stated that a link extreme phases with SSFI results during following summer,
14
most of the stations in Iran have experienced wetness condi-
tion while an intense increase takes place in entire Turkey
particularly in northeastern regions (Figure 5c,k). These are
in good agreement with those found by Karaca et al. (2000)
who emphasized the paths (numbered one and two) which
usually enter Turkey in summer and sometimes causes
flooding in Black Sea coasts.
The results of correlation analysis also confirmed those
found by Karabörk et al. (2005) who stated that streamflow
and precipitation in western Turkey are more sensitive to
NAO signal in winter than compared to those located in east-
ern regions. The western and southern Anatolian regions
depicted intermediate negative correlation where, only 10 of
them were significant. These results are supporting their
finding who showed the negative correlation between
streamflow and NAOI in the simultaneous wintertime, which
exhibits dominating effects of local climatic factors on SSFI
across eastern Turkey and along with northern Iran.
6 | CON CLU SION S
A network of streamflow series compiled from 123 hydro-
metric stations was used to explore the spatial and temporal
pattern of hydrological drought based on SSFI over Turkey
and north to northwestern Iran in association with the
extreme phases of NAO and AO. Although relationships
between surface climatic variables with NAO and AO have
previously been noted in the study area, we attempted to pre-
sent the physical mechanism of the large-scale atmospheric
circulations affecting SSF pattern during its extreme phases.
In this study, considerable temporal links were detected on
SSFI outcomes during the extreme phases of NAO and AO
and can be summarized as:
• Concerning the short-term SSFI results with regard to
the negative NAO extreme phases, a decreasing pattern,
whose timing is simultaneously in winter, is observable
and continued to the following seasons, while the latter
autumn got a notable increase across Turkey; however,
this decline pattern even continued to the following
autumn during the negative AO extreme phases.
Although this reduction in the SSFI results was occurred
in Iran during spring, the following seasons remain sta-
ble during the negative NAO and AO extreme phases.
• The negative AO extreme phases cause more drought
events compared to those of NAO at all timescales in
Iran. Furthermore, the most significant link between neg-
ative extreme phases and SSFIs occurred in the simulta-
neous winter, but less relevancy takes place during other
periods. Therefore, we concluded that the NAO and AO
in winter is considerably linked with SSFI in winter but
it is not dominating in the following seasons.
• The positive results of different cases in the first
6-month period (DJFMAM) is prevailing in the study
VAZIFEHKHAH AND KAHYA
area, even some stations experienced extreme to excep-
tional wetness conditions during the negative extreme
phases under NAO and AO influences. The dispersion
of outputs for the second 6-month period (JJASON) for
the both of the extreme phases is high. The northwestern
of Turkey got the minimum SSFI results in comparison
with higher outcomes appeared in the northeastern Tur-
key during positive extreme phases.
• In investigating comprehensive temporal relationships
between the extreme phases of NAO and AO and differ-
ent timescales of SSFIs, there is a strong zero-lag depen-
dency between the negative NAO/AO extreme phases
and SSFI in Turkey; however, the relation is weaker
across Iran. It is also evident that the positive extreme
phases of NAO and AO seem to impress the study area
persistently. The spatial distribution of SSFI during the
positive extreme phases reveals drought predictability in
Turkey except interior regions, while no considerable
drought event is predictable in Iran.
• Results of statistical significant analysis depicted that
negative cycles are controlling wetness (drought) condi-
tion in Turkey (Iran) while there is a weak correlation
between positive NAO cycles and SSFIs in the study
area. In addition, the eastern Turkey along with north-
western Iran suffer from drought during positive AO
cycles while the rest area does not show a considerable
correlation.
Although a number of earlier studies in Iran exhibited
mostly weak negative correlations between NAO and precip-
itation/streamflow, the applied NAO and AO extreme phases
used in this study could be considered to improve aforemen-
tioned relationships or to get precise results. Furthermore,
our analysis showed that seasonal investigation along with
shorter period (e.g., monthly or weekly, if applicable) might
be a proper timescale in the analysis of NAO and AO influ-
ences in the study area. It seems to be a substantial issue for
water resources managers and decision makers to consider
the NAO and AO extreme phases in future management
planning and strategies.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This research was partially supported by the Scientific
Research Projects Unit of Istanbul Technical University
through the project (# 39267). The authors appreciate the
general directorate of Turkish State Hydraulic Works
(TSHW) and Iran Water Resources Management Company
(IWRMC) for providing daily streamflow data. We would
also thank Physical Sciences Division of Earth System
Research Laboratory of National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) for providing climatological com-
posite maps and National Center for Atmospheric Research
(NCAR) for their provision of NAO and AO records. We
VAZIFEHKHAH AND KAHYA
also would like to thank Mr. Turhan Uludag, who is cur-
rently acting as an English lecturer at ITU North Cyprus, for
editing the manuscript entirely.
ORCID
Saeed Vazifehkhah http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3700-9319
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How to cite this article: Vazifehkhah S, Kahya E.
Hydrological drought associations with extreme
phases of the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations
over Turkey and northern Iran. Int J Climatol. 2018;
1–17. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5680
VAZIFEHKHAH AND KAHYA 17

APPEN DIX

TABLE A1 The results of streamflow series to reject to follow the corresponding probability distributions based on Kolmogorov-Smirnov test at 90%
confidence level
St. No. L-N P-III L-log GEV WEI- St. No. L-N P-III L-log GEV WEI- St. No. L-N P-III L-log GEV WEI-
1 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 42 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 83 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
2 Yes Yes Yes No Yes 43 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 84 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
3 No Yes No No Yes 44 No Yes Yes Yes Yes 85 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
4 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 45 Yes Yes Yes Yes No 86 No Yes Yes Yes Yes
5 No Yes Yes Yes Yes 46 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 87 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
6 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 47 No Yes No No Yes 88 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
7 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 48 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 89 No Yes No Yes Yes
8 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 49 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 90 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
9 Yes Yes Yes No Yes 50 No Yes Yes Yes Yes 91 No Yes Yes Yes No
10 Yes No Yes Yes No 51 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 92 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
11 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 52 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 93 Yes Yes Yes Yes No
12 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 53 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 94 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
13 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 54 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 95 Yes No Yes Yes No
14 No Yes Yes Yes No 55 No Yes Yes Yes Yes 96 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
15 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 56 Yes Yes Yes No Yes 97 Yes No Yes Yes No
16 No Yes No Yes Yes 57 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 98 Yes Yes Yes Yes No
17 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 58 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 99 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
18 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 59 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 100 Yes Yes Yes No Yes
19 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 60 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 101 Yes Yes Yes No No
20 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 61 No No Yes No No 102 No Yes No No Yes
21 No Yes Yes No Yes 62 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 103 No Yes No No Yes
22 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 63 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 104 Yes No Yes No No
23 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 64 Yes Yes Yes Yes No 105 Yes Yes Yes Yes No
24 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 65 No No No No Yes 106 No Yes Yes Yes Yes
25 No Yes Yes Yes No 66 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 107 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
26 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 67 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 108 No Yes No Yes No
27 No Yes Yes Yes Yes 68 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 109 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
28 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 69 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 110 Yes Yes No No Yes
29 No Yes No No Yes 70 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 111 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
30 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 71 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 112 No Yes No No Yes
31 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 72 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 113 Yes Yes Yes No Yes
32 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 73 Yes No Yes Yes No 114 Yes No Yes No No
33 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 74 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 115 Yes No Yes Yes Yes
34 Yes Yes No Yes Yes 75 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 116 No Yes No No Yes
35 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 76 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 117 Yes No Yes Yes Yes
36 Yes Yes Yes No No 77 Yes Yes Yes No No 118 Yes Yes Yes No No
37 No Yes No Yes Yes 78 Yes Yes Yes Yes No 119 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
38 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 79 No Yes No Yes No 120 Yes Yes Yes No Yes
39 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 80 Yes Yes Yes Yes No 121 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
40 Yes Yes No No Yes 81 No Yes No No Yes 122 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
41 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 82 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 123 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes