9/25/2019 Could climate change make Siberia more habitable?

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Could climate change make Siberia more habitable?

Date: June 6, 2019

Source: IOP Publishing

Summary: Large parts of Asian Russia could become habitable by the late 21st century due to climate change,
new research has found. Scientists used current and predicted climate scenarios to examine the
climate comfort of Asian Russia and work out the potential for human settlement throughout the
21st century.

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FULL STORY

Large parts of Asian Russia could become habitable by the late 21st century due to
climate change, new research has found.

A study team from the Krasnoyarsk Federal Research Center, Russia, and the National Institute of Aerospace,
USA, used current and predicted climate scenarios to examine the climate comfort of Asian Russia and work out
the potential for human settlement throughout the 21st century.

They published their results today in Environmental Research Letters.

At 13 million square kilometres Asian Russia -- east of the Urals towards the Pacific -- accounts for 77 per cent of
Russia's land area. Its population, however, accounts for just 27 per cent of the country's people and is
concentrated along the forest-steppe in the south, with its comfortable climate and fertile soil.

"Previous human migrations have been associated with climate change. As civilisations developed technology that
enabled them to adapt, humans became less reliant on the environment, particularly in terms of climate," said the
study's lead author Dr Elena Parfenova, from the Krasnoyarsk Federal Research Center.

"We wanted to learn if future changes in climate may lead to the less-hospitable parts of Asian Russia becoming
more habitable for humans."

For their analysis, the team used a combination of 20 general circulation models (Coupled Model Intercomparison
Project Phase 5) and two CO2 Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios -- RCP 2.6 representing mild
climate change and RCP 8.5 representing more extreme changes.

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9/25/2019 Could climate change make Siberia more habitable? -- ScienceDaily

They applied the collective means of January and July temperatures and annual precipitation of the two scenarios
to Asian Russia to find their respective effects on three climate indices that are important for human livelihood and
well-being: Ecological Landscape Potential (ELP), winter severity, and permafrost coverage.

Dr Parfenova said: "We found increases in temperature of 3.4°C (RCP 2.6) to 9.1°C (RCP 8.5) in mid-winter;
increases of 1.9°C (RCP 2.6) to 5.7°C (RCP 8.5) in mid-summer; and increases in precipitation of 60 mm (RCP
2.6) to 140 mm (RCP 8.5).

"Our simulations showed that under RCP8.5, by the 2080s Asian Russia would have a milder climate, with less
permafrost coverage, decreasing from the contemporary 65 per cent to 40 per cent of the area by the 2080s."

The researchers also found that even under the RCP 2.6 scenario, the ELP for human sustainability would
improve in more than 15 per cent of the area, which could allow for a five-fold increase in the in the capacity of the
territory to sustain and become attractive to human populations.

Dr Parfenova concluded: "Asian Russia is currently extremely cold. In a future warmer climate, food security in
terms of crop distribution and production capability is likely to become more favourable for people to support
settlements.

"However, suitable land development depends on the authorities' social, political and economic policies. Lands
with developed infrastructure and high agricultural potential would obviously be populated first.

"Vast tracts of Siberia and the Far East have poorly developed infrastructure. The speed these developments
happen depends on investments in infrastructure and agriculture, which in turn depends on the decisions that
should be made soon."

Story Source:

Materials provided by IOP Publishing. Original written by Simon Davies. Note: Content may be edited for style
and length.

Journal Reference:

1. Elena Parfenova, Nadezhda Tchebakova, Amber Soja. Assessing landscape potential for human
sustainability and ‘attractiveness’ across Asian Russia in a warmer 21st century. Environmental
Research Letters, 2019; 14 (6): 065004 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab10a8

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