Cuarta Asignación de Estadística Aplicada a la Ingeniería Química 2019 II

Grupo 1, si son cinco miembros: 1, 6, 11, 16, 21

Grupo 2 2, 7, 12, 17, 22

Torres Bustamante Paola
Camargo poma Ruth Mayli
León Bravo Jean Pierre
Diaz Chochoca Christian Rodrigo
Cachi Abril

Grupo 3, si son cinco miembros 3, 8, 13, 18 20

Grupo 4, deben ser solo 4, dado que se retiraron alumnos 4, 9, 14, 19

Grupo 5 5, 10, 15
Palomino Inche Camila Denisse 18070048
Ruiz Rivas Christie Marcela 18070116
Sánchez Chamana Kerem Yemina 1807013

Problemas

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An oil refinery has a problem with air pollution. In any one year, the probability of
escape of SO2 is 23%, and probability of escape of a sticky oil is 16%. Escape of
SO2 and escape of the oil will not occur at the same time. If the wind direction is
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right, the SO2 or oil will blow away from the city and no damage will result. The
probability of this is 55%. Otherwise, an escape of SO2 will result in damage
claims of $80,000, an escape of oil will result in damage claims of $45,000, and
there will be possibility of a fine. If the pollutant is SO2, under these conditions
there is 90% probability of a fine, which will be $150,000. If the pollutant is oil, the
probability of a fine depends on whether the oil affects a prominent politician’s
house or not. If oil causes damage, the probability it will affect his house is 5%. If
it affects his house, the probability of a fine is 96%. If it does not affect his house,
the probability of a fine is 65%. If there is a fine for pollution by oil, it is $175,000.
Answer the following questions for the next year.
(a) What is the probability there will be damage claims for escape of SO2?
(b) What is the probability there will be damage claims for escape of oil?
(c) What is the probability of a $150,000 fine?
(d) What is the expected cost for damages and fines?

A mining company is planning strategy with respect to its operations. It has the
option of developing 3 properties, but only in a given sequence of A, B, and C. The
probability of A being successful and yielding a net profit of $1.5 million is 0.7,
and the probability of its failing and causing a loss of $0.5 million is 0.3. If A is
successful, B has 0.6 probability of being successful and producing a gain of $1.2
million, and 0.4 probability of being a failure and causing a loss of $.75 million. If
A is a failure, B has 0.4 probability of being a success with a gain of $1 million,
and 0.6 probability of being a failure with a loss of $1.8 million. If both A and B
are failures, then the company will not proceed with C. If both A and B are
successes, C will be a success with probability of 0.9 and a gain of $2.5 million, or
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a failure with probability of 0.1 and a loss of $1.5 million. If either A or B is a
failure (but not both) then C is attempted. In that case, the probability of success of
C would be 0.3 but a gain of $5 million would result; failure of C, probability 0.7,
would result in a loss of $0.8 million. The company decides to proceed with this
strategy.
(a) What is the expected gain or loss?
(b) Given that A is a failure, what is the expected total gain from projects B and C?
(c) Given that there is a net loss for all three (or two) projects taken together,
(d) what is the probability that B was a failure?

A fraction 0.014 of the output from a production line is defective. A sample of 95

items is taken. Assume defective items occur randomly and independently.
(a) What is the standard deviation of the proportion defective in a sample of this
size?
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(b) What is the probability that the proportion of defective items in the sample will
be within two standard deviations of the fraction defective in the whole
population?

A quality-control engineer wants to check whether (in accordance with

specifications) 95% of the electronic components shipped by his company are in
good working condition. To this end, he randomly selects 15 from each large lot
ready to be shipped and passes the lot if the selected components are all in good 10
working condition; otherwise, each of the components in the lot is checked. Find
the probabilities that the quality-control engineer will commit the error of
(a) holding a lot for further inspection even though 95% of the components are in
 good working condition;
(b) letting a lot pass through without further inspection even though only 90% of
the components are in good working condition;
(c) letting a lot pass through without further inspection even though only 80% of
the components are in good condition.

Pollution control regulations. A task force established by the Environmental

Protection Agency was scheduled to investigate 20 industrial firms to check for
violations of pollution control regulations. However, budget cutbacks have
drastically reduced the size of the task force, and they will be able to investigate
only 3 of the 20 firms. If it is known that 5 of the firms are actually operating in
violation of regulations, find the probability that 11
(a) None of the three sampled firms will be found in violation of regulations.
(b) All three firms investigated will be found in violation of regulations.
(c) At least 1 of the 3 firms will be operating in violation of pollution control
regulations.

Check whether the following can define probability distributions, and explain your
answers.
𝑥
𝑎) 𝑓(𝑥) = 10 for x = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4. 12
(𝑥−1)2
𝑎) 𝑓(𝑥) = for x = 0, 1, 2, 3.
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The random variable X has p.d.f. given by:

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1. Draw the graph of p.d.f.
2. Calculate the probabilities P(X ≤ 6,5), P(X > 8,1), P(5 < X < 8).
3. Calculate and draw the graph of c.d.f.
4. Calculate mean E[X].
5. Calculate variance Var[X].
6. If we define new random variable Y = 5 − 2X, calculate E[Y] and Var[Y].

Cada día, el número de apagones de red tiene una distribución (función de masa de
probabilidad)
x 0 1 2
P(x) 0,7 0,2 0,1 14
Una pequeña empresa de comercio de Internet estima que cada apagón de la red
resulta en una pérdida de $ 500. Calcule la expectativa y la variación de la pérdida
diaria de esta compañía debido a los apagones.
 Una compañía proveedora de productos químicos tiene en existencia 100 kg de un
producto que vende a sus clientes en lotes de 5 kg. Sea X:= número de lotes
encargados por un cliente seleccionado al azar. Suponga que X tiene la siguiente
función de probabilidad puntual:
X 1 2 3 4
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P(X) 0,2 0,4 0,3 0,1
a) Calcule E(X) y Var(X).
b) Calcule el número esperado de kilogramos sobrantes después de embarcar el
pedido del siguiente cliente, y la varianza de los kilos sobrantes.

En una planta productora de tubos fluorescentes, se ha encontrado que el equipo de

vacío funciona irregularmente 20 minutos en cada jornada de 8 horas. Cuando esto
sucede, el porcentaje de defectuosos se eleva del 3 % habitual al 12 %. Del almacén
se extrae un tubo, se lo examina y resulta ser defectuoso.
a) ¿Cuál es la probabilidad de que ese tubo haya sido fabricado en un momento en 16
que el equipo funcionaba irregularmente?
b) ¿Cuál es la probabilidad de que ese tubo haya sido fabricado en un momento en
que el equipo funcionaba regularmente?

In the manufacture of a modified natural resin, the three key properties are the
melting point (E1), color (E2) and acid number (E3), each of which is independent
of the others. The marketing office suggests that the sales specifications should be a
minimum melting point of 130°C, a maximum color of 3 (arbitrary scale) and the
acid number of 12. Analysis of available data indicate that the probabilities of the
material is out of specification are P (E1) = 0,03; P (E2) = 0,05 and P (E3) = 0,02. 17
A) What is the probability that the resin will maintain the melting point
specification?
B) What is the probability that the resin maintains the specifications of the color
and number of acidity?

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Un lote de 500 contenedores de jugo de naranja congelado contiene cinco que son
defectuosos. Dos de ellos son seleccionados al azar, sin reemplazo del lote.
a) ¿Cuál es la probabilidad de que el segundo seleccionado sea defectuoso, ya que
el primero estaba defectuoso?
b) ¿Cuál es la probabilidad de que ambos sean defectuosos?
c) ¿Cuál es la probabilidad de que ambos sean aceptables?
Tres contenedores son seleccionados al azar, sin reemplazo, del lote. 21
d) ¿Cuál es la probabilidad de que el tercer seleccionado sea defectuoso, ya que el
primero y el segundo que se seleccionaron fueron defectuosos?
e) ¿Cuál es la probabilidad de que el tercer seleccionado sea defectuoso, ya que el
primero seleccionado fue defectuoso y el segundo seleccionado estuvo bien?
f) ¿Cuál es la probabilidad de que los tres sean defectuosos?

Un equipo se arma con 7 tornillos para ser montados por el cliente, pero el equipo
solo necesita 4 para funcionar. Si la proporción de tornillos defectuosos es del 10%,
¿Cuál es la probabilidad de que un equipo pueda montarse? ¿Cuál es la 22
probabilidad de que si compramos 3 equipos no podamos hacer funcionar ninguno,
por culpa de los tornillos? (Los tornillos de un equipo no sirven para el otro).