CHAPTER -1

INTRODUCTION

1.0. GENERAL
Cities play a vital role in promoting economic growth and prosperity of a nation. The
development of cities largely depends upon their physical, social, and institutional infrastructure.
Transport demand in most Indian cities has increased substantially, due to increases in
population as a result of both natural increase and migration from rural areas and smaller towns.
Availability of motorized transport increases household income, and increases in commercial and
industrial activities further adds to transport demand. In many cases, demand has outstripped
road capacity. Greater congestion and delays are prevalent in Indian cities and indicate the
seriousness of transport problems. A high level of pollution is another undesirable feature of
overloaded streets. The transport crisis also takes a human toll. Statistics indicate that accidents
are a primary cause of accidental deaths in Indian cities. The main reasons for these problems are
the prevailing imbalance in modal split, inadequate transport infrastructure, and its suboptimal
use. Public transport systems in metropolitan cities have not been able to keep pace with the
rapid and substantial increases in travel demand over the past few decades. Bus services in
particular have deteriorated, and their relative output has been further reduced as passengers have
turned to personalized modes and intermediate public transport.
Individual cities cannot afford to cater only to private cars and two-wheelers. There must
be a general recognition that without public transport cities would be even less viable. There is a
need to promote public transport instead of personal vehicles. This requires both an increase in
quantity as well as quality of public transport and effective use of demand as well as supply-side
management measures. People should also be encouraged to use non-motorized transport and
investments may be made to make it safer. Cities are the major contributors to economic growth,
and movements within cities are crucial for improved quality of life.

1.1. Transport and Socio Economic Activities

Transport is a key component of growth and globalization. A country’s economic status
depends upon how well served country is by its roads, railways, airports, ports, pipelines and
shipping. The rate at which a country’s economy grows is very closely linked to the rate at which
transport sector grows. Transport has throughout history been a spur to expansion; better
transport allows more trade and a greater spread of people. Economic growth has always been
dependent on increasing the capacity and rationality of transport.
Modern society dictates a physical distinction between home and work, forcing people to
transport themselves to places of work or study, as well as to temporarily relocate for other daily
activities. Passenger transport is also the essence of tourism, a major part of recreational
transport. Commerce requires the transport of people to conduct business, either to allow face-to-
face communication for important decisions or to move specialists from their regular place of
work to sites where they are needed.

Accessibility
In many cases, the objective of transport infrastructure investment is to improve the
accessibility of a given region by reducing travel time or increasing the potential to travel.
Accessibility can be measured as the quantity of economic or social activities that can be
reached using the transport system. Improvement in accessibility will increase the market size
for manufacturing, tourism and/or labor.

Employment
India is a country with huge unemployment problem. Transport is a sector which absorbs
labour force in good measure. Regional employment is often an important government objective.
The impacts of construction, operation and maintenance of transport infrastructure on
employment include both created and relocated jobs. The impacts of construction could be
assessed by methods which allow the direct, indirect and induced employment impacts of
transport infrastructure projects to be assessed. Direct and indirect employment, linked to the
operation and maintenance of transport infrastructure, is largely related to the level of traffic,
which can also be assessed.

Efficiency
For industry in a given region, time and cost savings as well as gains in
accessibility and reliability, arising from the transport infrastructure would allow productivity
gains to be achieved by improving their production and distribution. Wider access to the market
will create both new business opportunities and increased competition, leading to further
increase in profitability. The market will be redistributed to the advantage of those companies
which are able to adapt to the new market. The same process could occur for the labour market.
Thus, transport infrastructure project could be said to have an impact on private capital and
labour productivity, and hence on overall economic growth.

1.2. Historical Development of Transport

Nowadays, many people today take for granted the very means of travel available to
them. Few stop to think of how life would be different had man never tamed that first wild horse,
or shaped that very first wheel. Archaeologists believe that the very first step toward man-made
transportation began in either Mesopotamia or Asia, sometime around 4000-3500 BC, with the
invention of the wheel. By this point, man had long since domesticated the horse, and was using
it to help him tilt the soil and plant crops. But the invention of the wheel would eventually make
man's ability to transport his crops from one place to another less awkward, and gave birth to the
idea of trade and exchange. The invention of the wheel would lead to the development of mass
transportation, as man put his new invention to practical uses.
The next logical evolutionary step from the wheel was the invention of the cart and
chariot. The two-wheel chariot found its birthplace in Samaria, and is believed to be the world's
first form of wheeled transportation. Built around 3500 BC, this chariot increased the speed of
travel over land, and eventually led to the four-wheeled cart, which took the burden of carrying
supplies and equipment off of the shoulders of the common man.
As mankind overcame the boundaries of land travel, his curiosity about the world around
him increased. To his aid, man had developed a means of traveling on water even before he had
domesticated the horse. The origin of the dugout boat is one of history's great mysteries.
Historians are unable to pinpoint when or where the very first water vessel was set afloat, and
even speculate that it might have been purely an accident the first time. But, howsoever it
happened, the addition of the boat changed the face of transportation. Boats allowed man to, for
the first time ever, cross water bodies without getting wet.
Over time, the simple boat evolved to include a large square of cloth mounted on a
central pole. This cloth, called a sail, would turn the boat into a sail-propelled ship. This new
addition gave man the ability to use waterways as a means of swift travel from one place to
another, and even to travel against the rivers and sea current. However, the evolution of water
travel didn't stop with the sail. Ships would eventually take on sleekness as they increased in
size. Before long, they would add oars and rudders, and then deck covers. By Greek and Roman
times, ships had grown clunky shipboard towers, as well, which developed, over time, into the
medieval stern- and forecastles. By the late medieval era, these castles were built solid, as a part
of the ship's basic structure. Then, by the Renaissance and the Age of Exploration which
followed, ships had gained tiers of rigging and sails, becoming sleek and speedy.
Then, in the 1800s, ships began to shed their sails on the rivers once again. The advent of
automation was changing transportation forever. The very first automation in ships was the
cumbersome paddlewheel. Due to their bulky form and inability to turn easily, paddlewheel
boats were confined to river travel, where they would experience calmer currents and need less
maneuverability.
 
2.4 Types of Urban or Road Systems.
Following are the different system of streets or roads commonly adopted in the city:
2.4.1. Rectangular or Grid-Iron Street system.
2.4.2. Rectangular combined with Diagonal street system.
2.4.3. Concentric and Radial Street system.
2.4.4. Rectangular combined with Radial street system.
2.4.5. Organic street system.
2.4.6. Irregular Medieval street system.
2.4.7. Combination of Rectangular and Irregular Street system.

2.4.1 Rectangular or Grid-iron Street system

This system is suitable for a fairly plain country, without any predominant natural
features. Here the streets have equal widths and they cross each other at right angles. See Fig. 2.7
e.g. Jaipur (India)

The advantages of this system are:

I. It is convenient to traffic and so a speedy and free traffic can be maintained.
II. The houses are constructed in rectangular blocks so convenient, economical and most
suited for building construction.
III. There is no wastage of land since no irregular portions are left out.
IV. The maximum area is used for construction. It is therefore most advantageous for private
land-owners.
 Fig. 2.7 Rectangular
R or Grid-Iroon System
The disad
dvantages off this system
m are:
I. This
T system does not provide shortt cuts whic h provide a direct acccess to tradee and
sh
hopping centre.
II. In
n uneven cou
untry, this sy
ystem leads to
t inconveniience, discom
mfort and m
moreover beccomes
ex
xpensive.
III. This
T system has
h too man
ny junctions and crossinngs. So therre are more chances forr road
acccidents. Heence it is mosst unsatisfacctory from trraffic point oof view.
IV. This
T system is too math
hematical an
nd produces monotonouus effect sinnce the roadds are
sttraight as a result
r the visstas are open
n, devoid of iinterest and variety.

2.4.2 Rectangular
R combined with
w Diagon
nal street syystem
Itt is an impro
oved type of
o rectangulaar system. S
See Fig. 2.8,, England w
was the first town
which waas designed as this type of system.
 Fig.
F 2.8 Recttangular Co
ombined wiith Diagonaal System
The advaantages of th
he system aree:
I. This
T system provides
p direect communiication from
m distant partts of the tow
wn.
II. At
A the place where
w the diaagonals meeet, a park, gaarden, fountaain or memorial can be uup to
ad
dd aestheticss to the town
n.
III. This
T system is
i most practticable as theere are very few obstaclees.

The disad
dvantages arre:
I. This
T system gives
g rise to many dangeerous interseections at thee junctions oof diagonal sttreets
an
nd rectangu
ular streets and so mo
ost unsatisfaactory from traffic poiint of view E.g.
Washington,
W the Capital of
o U.S.A.

2.4.3 Concentric
C and
a Radial street
s system
m
In
n this system
m the circu
ular or ring road are coonnect to raadial roads. It is also ccalled
m’. See Fig. 2.9 (a) and (b).
‘Spider’ss Web System
This
T system represents
r th
he most natu
ural growth as many citties roughly possess a paart of
this featu
ure. Here thee town growss in the form
m of concenttric Ring roaads round thee hub of the town
so that eaach growth or
o part is as near
n to the centre. E.g. V
Vienna, Austtria.
 Fig
gure 2.9 (a)
 

Fig
gure 2.9 (b)
Figure 2..9: Concentrric and Rad
dial street syystem

The advaantages of th
he system aree:
 I. The radial roads provide direct access to the heart or central part of the town and are
earmarked for fast moving traffic. Hence, these ring roads can be designed as arterial
roads.
II. The circular roads function as the intermediary between diagonal roads and local roads.
III. The circular roads help to distribute the local traffic to the different thoroughfares. Hence
it is most suitable from traffic point of view.
IV. This system is found to be more useful for the economic expansion of the town
particularly if the town has central features such as important public buildings, market
etc.

The disadvantages of this system are:

I. The plots are formed trapezoidal in shape. So a lot of space is wasted due to irregular
portions left out.
II. It is not economical for the construction of houses, since maximum area is not utilized.
 
2.4.1 R
Rectangular combined with
w Radiall street systeem
Inn practice a combinatioon of rectanngular and radial
r system
m can be adopted
a if thhe
topographical featurees are favouurable to suiit the local requirement
r s of each pllace. See Figg.
2.10. It hhas both the advantages
a o rectangulaar roads and radial roadss. E.g. New Delhi
of D (India).

Figure 2.10 Rectaangular com

mbined with
h Radial street system

2.4.2 O
Organic streeet system
Itt is also called as Topoggraphical andd Informal Street
S system
m. The namee ‘Organic’ is
applied bbecause the plan resem
mbles to a microscope
m slide, presennting the celll structure of
o
animal oor vegetablle tissues. Here the street
s system is entireely unplannned with aall
irregulariities, and hen
nce the nam
me “Studied Irregularities
I s”. The streets are curvin
ng, sometimees
discontinnuous, with variable
v widtth and irreguular open spaaces at somee intervals.
T make thiss system attrractive and pleasing
To p witth good scennic effects, the
t streets arre
planned in conformity with natuural surrounddings, such as river, lakke, hillock, sea-shore
s ettc.
E.g. Carccassonne, Frrance. See Fiig. 2.11.

10
 Figu
ure 2.11 Orrganic streett system

2.4.3 Irrregular Meedieval street system

M
Many of the old cities of the middlee ages have grown in thhis irregularr way withouut
any plannning. They have develloped immeethodically and
a illogicaally beyond control. E.gg.
Nasik, Varanasi
V citiees in India.

2.4.4 C
Combination
n of Rectanggular and irrregular strreet systems
T irregular type is of reecent development of thee town. Wheen the old syystem is founnd
The
difficult tto rectify to suit the moddern needs, the
t combinattion is adoptted E.g. Edinnburgh, U.K
K.

11
 CHAPTER – 3
GOODS MOVEMENT

3.1Broad Classes of Urban Goods Movement Demand

Following consideration are required for the forecast of urban goods movement.
(1). Location of terminal and transfer points.
(2). Land use pattern
(3). Potential technological innovations in goods movement.
(4). Changing patterns of Urban development and structure.
(5). Labour practice within industry.
(6). Governmental, social and economic consideration.

The classifications of urban goods based on spatial pattern of demand are broadly grouped as
follows.
1. Goods movement between the urban areas and external locations.
2. Inter industry goods movements within an urban area.
3. Household based goods movements within an urban area.

Terminology:
Unit: A unit receives certain type of commodity as input and dispatches other types of
commodity as output.
A manufacturing plant: It receives the input of raw materials and semi furnished products and
dispatches semi-finished and finished products for other destinations.
House hold: A house hold receives food and other consumer products and dispatch garbage for
disposal.
Freight terminals: It receives goods that are either consolidated into large consignment for
external locations are goods that must be separated into smaller consignments for distribution
within the area.
 External commodity Movements:
The commodity movements to from the external locations are termed as external
commodity movements. It is of two types:

(a) Direct consignments: The major portions of direct consignments are made by trucks.
(b) Consignment via a freight terminal: Consignment via freight terminals involves pickup
and delivery components by truck.

Truck Trip Generations:

Destination of urban truck trips is oriented towards the city centre about 80% of truck
trips being attracted to zones within 6-10 miles of the central business district.

Movement by the two axle trucks have been observed to account for 70-90% of the total
truck movements in urban areas. The individual consignment carried by these trucks tends to be
small and account for only 20-30% of total tonnage of freight moved by trucks in urban areas.
Urban trucks movement tends to peak just prior to the morning person trip peak period and again
in the mid-afternoon period.
3.1.1 CLASSIFICATION OF URBAN GOODS MOVEMENT

Urban Goods Movement

Internal
External

Inter industry Household

Direct Freight Consignments Based
Consignment Terminal      Consignment
Consignment

Pickup and
Delivery
Consignment
 Spatial pattern of Goods movements by
Commodity type and Consignment size

Figure 3.1: Classification of Urban Goods Movement

 
 CHAPTER – 7
TRIP DISTRIBUTION

7.1 Basis of Trip Distribution

After having obtained an estimate of the trips generated from and attracted to the various
zones, it is necessary to determine the direction of travel. The number and types of trips
originating and terminating in different zones of the study area have been estimated in the first
phase of the modeling process (Trip generation). It is known now for what purpose these trips
are to be made. The purpose of the trip distribution analysis phase is to develop a procedure that
synthesizes the trip linkages between traffic zones for both transit captive and choice trip makers.
Figure 7.1 shows that knowledge of the properties of the alternative horizon - year transport
networks is required for the trip distribution analysis phase.
If Oi is the number of trips having their origin in zone i and Dj is the number of trips
having terminated in zone j, trip distribution stage determines the number of trips Tij which
would originate from zone i and terminate in zone j. A trip matrix is drawn for the study area
with the sum of rows indicating the total number of trips (Oi) originated in zone i and the sum of
columns the total number of destinations (Dj) or attractions to zone j.
If an area is divided into ‘n’ number of zones, possible zone to zone movements will be n
x n and the trip matrix will be as shown in figure 7.1. The purpose of the procedure is to
complete each cell entry Tij so that the sum of rows and columns are as nearly equal as possible
to the total future trips in the study area.
 Figure 7.1
1: Propertiees required of
o synthesizzed trip disttribution maatrices
 

7.2 P-A Matrix

M to O-D
O Matrix
7.2.1 Bacckground
Once
O estimate of the trip generated, i.e.
i producedd from and aattracted to thhe various zzones,
are madee the next steep is to deteermine the direction
d of ttravel of theese trips. Thee number off trips
produced
d in any zon
nes of the stu
udy area hass to be appo rtioned to thhe zones to which thesee trips
are attraccted. Say, theere are pi trip
ps produced
d from zone i by trip makkers categoryy ‘q’ and aj is the
number of
o trip ends attracted to zone j, then
n the numberr of trips beetween zone i and zone j (i.e.
tqi-j) wou
uld be estimated using trip
t distributtion techniqu
que. This cann be represeented in a m
matrix
form as given
g below::

1 2 3 n ∑pi
1 t11 t12 t13 ….. t1n p1
2 t21 t22 t23 …..
… t2n p2

n tn1
n tn2 tn3 …..
… tnn pn
∑aj a1 a2 a3 …… an
 The horizontal axis of the trip matrix shown represents the zones of attractions (i.e.
destinations) and the vertical axis represents the zones of production (i.e. origins) numbered from
1 to n. The total of any individual row, i, represents the total number of trips produced in zone i
(pi) and the total of any individual column j represents the number of trips attracted to zone j (aj).
An Origin-Destination (O-D) trip table is a two dimensional matrix of elements whose
cells values represents the travel demand between each given origin (row) and destination
(column) zone. An O-D trip table can be obtained by conventional surveys such as license plate
surveys, home interviews, roadside surveys etc. Such surveys are time consuming, expensive and
labor intensive. In addition, many of these approaches involve sampling errors. These
conventional approaches also suffer from other drawbacks, such as an inability to reflect changes
in influencing factors. For instance, if the land use characteristics change, so will the trip table.
Hence the previously measured trip table may quickly become outdated, and one needs to repeat
these surveys in order to obtain new trip tables, which is cost prohibitive.

Nevertheless, transportation organizations may require the trip tables for planning
purposes. Due to constraints in budget, time and labor, researchers began exploring alternative
means of producing these trip tables. Since the early 1970’s several techniques have been
explored to obtain the trip table without the need for expensive surveys, as will be described
further in the literature review.

7.2.2 Needs for O-D Matrix

Traffic congestion is one of the major problems faced by both developed and developing
countries. Several potential solutions have been investigated to solve it, and a great deal of effort
is put into activities such as, transportation planning to transportation management in order to
attempt to alleviate the problem. Some solutions include: demand restriction policies (such as
increasing taxes or increasing other transportation expenses, ramp metering), increasing
transportation supply, improved transportation management strategies (such as better signal
coordination, real time traffic diversion) and recently development of ITS (Intelligent
Transportation Systems). Most transportation problems are complicated. However, solutions to
them are costly when put into practice, prohibiting trial and error approaches to finding the best
solution, as a careful investigation is needed to understand the effect of relevant demand and
supply before any strategy is implemented.
Demand information in transportation planning is described by trip tables. There are two
types of matrices; Production-Attraction (P-A) matrix and Origin-Destination (O-D) matrix. The
main difference between the two is that the cell values in a P-A trip table are non directional,
whereas the cell values of an O-D trip table have directional meaning, indicating the number of
trips going from an origin to a destination. Furthermore, a P-A trip table satisfies flow
conservation, i.e. the summation of productions must be equal to summation of attractions,
whereas an O-D trip tables does not exhibit such a property.
O-D trip tables are generally used for traffic assignment purposes. During the past few
years many transportation engineers have begun to focus on Intelligent Transportation Systems
(ITS), which include Advanced Traffic Management Systems (ATMS), Advanced Traveler
Information Systems (ATIS) and Automated Vehicle Control Systems (AVCS). It is believed
that accurate and fast O-D trip table generation techniques are needed, in the planning, operation
and maintenance of such ITS.

 
7.3.2 Case Studies of Gravity Model:-
Length frequency distribution for the base year. A gravity model of the type Figure -1
shows a simple five-zone city along with the trip productions, trip attractions and the trip defined
in equation below may be calibrated for this simple city.

DF
T O
ij i
j ij

D F
j
j ij

Figure 7.5 shows the relationship between the travel time factor and the travel time
assumed for the first iteration of the model. It should be noted for this simple city that there are
only two origin zones, numbers 3 and 5. Table 7.2 shows the calculations required by the first
iteration of the model. The entries in lines 1, 2, 6, and 7 of table 7.2 are obtained directly from
the information provided in figure 7.6 and 7.7. The Sum of Dj Fij products in lines 3 and 8 are the
denominators of the gravity model for zones 3 and 5 respectively.
 Figure 7.5
 
 Figure 7.6 Travel ch
haracteristiccs of a simplle city

This
T denomin
nators is usu
ually referred
d to as the aaccessibility of the particcular origin since
it convey
ys the accesss which thaat zone has to opportunnities in thee destinationn zones. Forr this
simply ciity, househo
olds located in
i zone 3 haave greater aaccessibility to employm
ment opportunities
than do households
h lo
ocated in zone 5.

The
T entries in
n lines 4&9 are measurees of the atttraction that a destinatioon zone has to an
origin zo
one. It should
d be noted th
hat the entriees in these linnes sum to 11.00 since prroductions frrom a
zone of origin must all find destinations. The
T six Tij’ss calculated in table 7.22 along witth the
associateed Dij’s may be used to construct
c the simulated trrip-length frrequency disstribution andd this
is shown on fig 7.7. Also
A shown on fig 7.7 iss the observeed frequencyy distributionn.
 7: Characteriistics of firstt Iteration off gravity model for sampple city
Figure 7.7

A Compariso
on of these frequency distributions
d indicates thhat the gravvity model iis not
distributiing sufficien
nt trips to th
he shorter travel time. E
Estimate of the travel tiime factors to be
used for the second iteration & figure 7.7. Travel timee factors haave been inccreased for ttravel
times of less than 3 minutes,
m thiss will have th
he effect in tthe gravity m
model of disstributing a llarger
number of
o trips to deestinations with
w shorter trravel times.
 The
T calculatiions presentted in table--1(below) coould now be repeated w
with the neew Fij
magnitu
udes and a seecond trip len
ngth frequen
ncy distributtion.
TABLE 7.2
7 Calculaations requireed for first itteration

Calculatio
ons Destinatiion Zone
1 2 4
Attraction
ns(Oi) 450 250 3300

Origin 3 3 2 5
1.Travel tiime Dij 0.36
0 0.45 0..18
2.Travel tiime factor Fij 162
1 112 554 328
3.Dj Fij 0.50
0 0.34 00.16 1.00
4.Oi Fij / ∑D
∑ j Fij

DF
5. T O j ij
150
1 102 448 300
D F
ij i
j ij

Origin 5
6. Travel time
t Dij 3 5 4
7. Travel time
t factor Fij 0.36
0 0.18 0..25
8. Dj Fij 162 45 775 282
9. Oi Fij / ∑D
∑ j Fij 1.57 0.16 0..27 1.00

DF
10. T O j i
ij
399 112 1889 700
D F
ij i
j ij

7.4 Grow
wth Factor Methods
M of Trip Distriibution:-
Growth
G factors methods are
a generally
y simple andd have been used in earllier studies. Their
basic assumptions are projected to
t the design
n year in the future by ussing certain expansion fa
factor.
Various growth
g facto
or methods which
w have been
b developped from tim
me to time arre given beloow –

i) Uniform Growth
G Facttor Method
 ii) Average Growth Factor Method
iii) Detroit Method
iv) Frater Method
v) Furness Method
7.4.1 Uniform growth Factor Method
This is the oldest method and a Single growth factor, F is calculated for the entire zone.
The future trips between zone i & j are then calculated by using equation –

T  T F
ij
h
ij
b

Where h and b stand for horizon year and base year respectively and F is the growth
factor. Let us take a numerical example to illustrate the Procedure –

Example: The trip interchanges among three zones of a study area are shown in the matrix
below –
1 2 3 4
1 - 50 25 25
2 50 - 100 75
3 25 100 - 150
4 25 75 150 -

The growth factors estimated for different zones over the 20 year design period are as given
below. Estimate the trip matrix for the design year.

Zone: 1 2 3 4
G.F : 3 4 1 2

Solution: Future trip matrix will simply be forecasted by multiplying each row by its growth
factor as shown below:

1 2 3 4
1 - 150 75 75
 2 200 - 400 300
3 25 100 - 150
4 50 150 300 -

This method of trip distribution suffers from numbers of brawbacks. The assumption of
uniform growth rate for the entire zone is not rational. The method underestimates the
movements where present day trips are intensive.
 
 7.4.2 Average Factor Method
In this method an average of two zonal growth factors is applied to the base year
trips to arrive at a forecast for the design year.

F F
T t 
h
ij
b
i j
i j

2
Where Fi & Fj are growth factors for zone i&j respectively.
Taking the Previous example future trips between zone 1 and 2 may be calculated as follws.

F F
T t 
h
12 12
b i j

2
3 4
 50   175
2
Similarly,

1 2
T  150 
h
3y
 225and so on
2
the resulting matrix is given in table 7.3
Table 7.3
1 2 3 4 Oi Oi New G.F
required
1 - 175 50 62.5 287.5 300 1.043
2 175 - 250 225* 650 900 1.384
3 50 250 - 225 525 275 0.524
4 62.5 225* 225 - 512.5 500 0.975

As may be seen average of two growth factors has underestimated some trips and over
estimated. Others zone a new growth factor is to be calculated by taking the ratio of Oi
estimated and process is to be repeated till the completed values match with the required
values.

7.4.3 Fratar Growth Factor Method:

Several naive trend or simple growth factor models have been developed for use in
special situations. Among these the Fratar model is often used to estimate external trips. That
71 
 
is trips that are either produced and/or are attracted outside the boundaries of the region under
study from outlying areas whose character is not explicitly analyzed. The Fratar growth-
factor method uses the following expression to synthesize horizon year trip- interchange
magnitudes:

h  T b  F  F  Li L j
T ij ij i j 2
 T bij
j
Where, Li 
 T bij  F j
j

 T bij
Lj i
 T bij  F i
i
h = The number of vehicle trips between zones i& j in the horizon year.
T ij

T bij = The number of vehicle trips between zones i & j observed in the base year.

F i , F j = the growth factor for zones i& j which reflect the growth in trip productions and

trip attractions expected between the base and horizon years where
Li , L j = the locational factors

N.B: The locational factors defined the reciprocals of the average attracting forces of all of
the surrounding zones.
Application of Fratar model
Mathematical expressions are:

h  T b  F  F  Li L j
T ij ij i j 2
 T bij
j
Where, Li 
 T bij  F j
j

 T bij
Lj i
 T bij  F i
i

72 
 
Taking an example
1 2 3 4
1 - 25 50 25
2 25 - 150 75
3 50 150 - 200
4 25 75 200 -

The growth factors estimated for different zones over the 20 year design period are as
given below.

Zone: 1 2 3 4
G.F: 3 4 2 1
Using the above equation we get
25  50  25
L   0.44
1
(25  4)  (50  2)  (25  1)
25  150  75
L   0.55
2
(25  3)  (150  2)  (75  1)
 L2
 L1  (0.44  0.55) 2  0.50
2

T 12
 25  3  4  0.50  150

Similarly all other values are calculated. The matrix obtained after 1st iteration will be as
follows:
1 2 3 4 O i O i
reqd Modified G.F

1 - 150 130 31 311 300 0.96

2 150 - 587 192 929 1000 1.07
3 130 587 - 162 879 800 0.91
4 31 192 162 - 385 300 0.78

For second iteration

150  130  31
L   1.03
1
(150  1.07)  (130  0.91)  (31 0.78)
150  587  192
L   1.12
2
(150  0.96)  (587  0.91)  (192  0.78)

73 
 
 130  587  162
L   0.99
3
(130  0.96)  (587  1.07)  (162  0.78)
31  192  162
L   1.00
4
(31  0.96)  (192  1.07)  (162  0.91)

After second iteration we make a matrix and one more iteration may be carried out for
further refinement in the results.
Disadvantage
i. It is not sensitive to changes in the properties of transport network.
ii. Changes in the behavior of trip makers in forming linkages between various types of
land-based cannot be reflected in this trip distribution model.
iii. For those cities in which significant changes in urban structure are not expected in
this model.
iv. It breaks down mathematically when a new zone is built after the base year since all
base year interchange volumes involving such a zone would be equal to zero.

7.4.4 Disadvantage of Growth Factor Method:

The major disadvantage of growth factor method – are- that in each method present
day trip distribution matrix has to be obtained first and any error in that will get magnified in
future trip matrix. They do not take into account any changes in the accessibility during the
forecast period.
Conclusion:
Despite the above shortcomings, the growth factor methods are relatively simpler to
use and understand. They can be used for studies of small areas for updating stable and
uniform data.
 

74 
 
 CHAPTER – 8
TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT

8.1 DESCRIPTION OF TRANSPORT NETWORK

Route assignment, route choice, or traffic assignment concerns the selection of routes
(alternative called paths) between origins and destinations in transportation networks. It is the
fourth step in the conventional transportation forecasting model, following trip generation, trip
distribution, and mode choice. The zonal interchange analysis of trip distribution provides origin-
destination trip tables. Mode choice analysis tells which travellers will use which mode. To
determine facility needs, costs and benefits, the number of travellers on each route and link of the
network should be known (a route is simply a chain of links between an origin and destination),
and therefore to undertake traffic (or trip) assignment. Suppose there is a network of highways
and transit systems and a proposed addition. We first want to know the present pattern of traffic
delay and then what would happen if the addition were made.
Each number of trips from a particular origin to a particular destination must be assigned to the
alternative routes connecting the pair of nodes. While the path flows are of particular interest
from the traveller’s point of view, the network designer is usually more interested in the
corresponding link flows to detect bottlenecks.

8.1.1 Objectives of Traffic Assignment

During the classic traffic assignment stage a set of rules or principles is used to load a fixed trip
matrix onto the network and thus produce a set of links flows. This is not, however, the only
relevant output from the assignment stage; this has several objectives which are useful to
consider in detail. Not all of them receive the same emphasis in all situations nor can be achieved
with the same level of accuracy. The primary and secondary objectives of traffic assignment are
:
1. Primary:
 To obtain good aggregate network measures, e.g. total motorway flows, total
revenue by bus service;
 To estimate zone-to-zone travel costs (times) for a given level of demand;
 To obtain reasonable link flows and to identify heavily congested links.
 2. Secondary :
 To esttimate the ro
outes used beetween eachh O-D pair;
 To analyse which O-D pairs use
u a particullar link or rooute;
 To ob
btain turning movements for the desiign of future junctions.
In
n general teerms we sh
hall attain the primaryy objectivess more accuurately thann the
secondarry ones. Eveen within obj
bjectives we are likely too be more aaccurate withh those earliier in
the list. This
T is essen
ntially becau
use our mod
dels are morre likely to estimate coorrectly aggrregate
than disaaggregate vallues.
Itt is a criticaal step in th
he sequentiaal procedure, which dettermines linkk and OD ttravel
times, th
hereby influeencing OD choice and mode choicce through a “feedbackk” mechanism
m, or
through the solution
n of a route choice model integrateed with a m
model of vaariable OD fflows
(demand)). A schematic diagram for traffic asssignment is given in Figgure 8.1.

Figuree 8.1: Schem

matic Diagra
am for Depiicting Trafffic Assignmeent
 

8.1.2 Inp
puts and Ou
utputs in Assigning a Network
To carry out a traffic assignment, the followiing data are rrequired:
1. The
T number of trips thatt will be maade from onne zone to annother (this informationn was
determined frrom trip distrribution phaase.
2. Available
A hig
ghway or tran
nsit routes between zonees.
3. How
H long it will
w take to trravel on eacch route.
4. A decision ru
ule (or algoriithm) that ex
xplains how m
motorists orr transit userss select a rouute.
5. External
E tripss that were not consideered in the pprevious tripp generationn and distribbution
stteps.
 All
A assignment techniquees are based
d on route seelection. Thee choice of rroute is baseed on
several criteria
c such
h as travel tiime, length of travel, c ost of traveel, comfort, conveniencee and
safety.
The
T highway network is described
d by
y a system off links and nnodes (Figuree 8.2).
Link: A link is a section of a hig
ghway netwo
ork between two intersecctions.
Node: A node is eith
her the centro
oid of a zonee or the two or more inteersections.

Figure 8.2 Alternate Routes

R for T
Traffic Assiggnment
The
T number of
o available paths betweeen any pair of zones deepends on thhe mode of trravel.
In the case of privatee transportatiion modes a driver has ggood deal off freedom too select a posssible
path betw
ween different sets of paath variation
ns. Private annd public traavel demandd mainly deppends
upon trav
vel time and
d travel costt. These aspects insist thhe vehicularr traffic to sselect a partiicular
path betw
ween any paiirs of zones.
Traffic
T assignment is th
he stage off transportatiion networkk problem wherein thee trip
interchan
nges are allocated to the network. Asssigning of a network givves the folloowing outputts:
1. To
T estimate in
nter-zonal deemand by mode.
m
2. To
T determinee trip-maker’s choice of paths
p betweeen all zones along the neetwork.
3. To
T predict resulting flow
ws on the ind
dividual linkss of the entiire network oof the considdered
mode.
m
Trip
T assignm
ment processes involves earlier estim
mated demaand and netw
work descriiption
(links an
nd nodes) as inputs and individual
i fllows w.r.t inndividual linnks as outpuuts. The estim
mates
of link utilization
u caan be used to
t assess the likely level of service and to annticipate poteential
capacity problems.
8.1.3 Asssumptions in Trip Assignments
 A time perio
od of substaantial length, compared with the duuration of triips, in whicch the
ngestion in the networrk is relativvely constannt (either hiigh or low)); for
level of con
 example, a period of one or two hours. Such models are static, in contrast to dynamic
models.
 An input trip table giving the flow per hour from each origin zone to each destination
zone.
 A road network description consisting of nodes, links and link travel a time-flow
function, which increases indefinitely as flow increases without limit.
 In practice, the travel time pattern for each link is typically defined on its own flow,
ignoring the flows of opposing or conflicting links. However the links nominal capacity
may reflect the effect of intersecting links. The link capacity is not a strict upper limit on
flow.
 Drivers have perfect information about travel times (deterministic), or perfect
information plus a perception error (limited stochastic case), models with truly stochastic
times are much more difficult, and not considered.
8.1.4 Applications of Trip Assignment
Some of the applications of traffic assignment analysis to the network are:
1. To determine the deficiencies in the existing transport system by assigning the future
trips to the existing transport system.
2. To evaluate the effects of limited improvements and additions to the existing transport
system by assigning estimated future trips to the improved networks.
3. To develop construction priorities by assigning estimated future trips for the intermediate
years to the transport system proposed for those years.
4. To test alternative transportation system proposals by systematic and readily repeatable
procedures.
5. To provide design hour volumes on highway and turning movements at junctions.
Thus the assignment processes is applicable for both transport planners and highway facility
design engineers. The main need of traffic assignment processes is to evaluate:
 How the proposed transport system will work presently, and to the latter date.
 For the geometric design of highways and intersections.
Developments in computer technology made it possible to facilitate traffic assignment
techniques computations so laborious. A computer network assignment procedure requires:
 A way of coding the modal network for computer processing.
  An understanding of the factors affecting the trip-maker’s path preferences.
 A computer algorithm that is capable of producing the trip-maker’s preferred paths.
For computer analysis, the network is coded, key punched and stored in the computer memory.
The computer is then made to select the minimum path between the zones and assign predicted
trips to these paths. Traffic volumes are thus accumulated for each section of the network.
 
8.2 ROUTE CHOICE BEHAVIOUR:
The most fundamental element of any traffic assignment is to select a criterion which
explains the choice by driver of one route between an origin-destination pair from among the
number of potential paths available.

8.2.1 Wardrop criterion:

Wardrop had proposed two criteria that might be used to predict the paths between an origin
and destination pair. They are:
1. System optimal equilibrium criterion.
2. User optimal equilibrium criterion.

System equilibrium criterion:

“the trip times on all the routes actually used are equal and less than those which would
be experienced by a single vehicle on any unused route”
The first criterion is quite likely in practice. It is assumed that traffic will tend to settle
down into an equilibrium situation in which no driver can reduce his journey time by choosing a
new route.
The relationship labelled “average travel time” shows the variation in the average travel
time faced by individual vehicles as the traffic volume increases.
For example, when the traffic volume is 2000vehicles per hour, each vehicle will
experience an average travel time of 5.0 minutes per mile. When the volume is 3000 vehicles per
hour, then each vehicle will experience an average travel time of 15.0 minutes per vehicle.
The second relationship labelled “marginal travel time,” shows the increase in the
aggregate travel time experienced by all vehicles as traffic volume increases.

At low traffic volumes, the marginal or additional total travel time contributed to all
vehicles by an additional vehicle entering the traffic stream is small. At a volume of 3000
vehicles per hour the average travel time per vehicle is 15 minutes. The marginal travel time
imposed on the set of vehicles by one additional vehicle is 105 minutes. The extra vehicle would
actually experience a travel term increased by 90 minutes.
 Fig
gure 8.3 Va
ariation of Travel
T Timee with Trafffic Volume
 

Wardrop’s
W firrst criterion is equivalen
nt to the nottion of averaage cost priccing of econnomic
theory. Drivers
D mig
ght be regarrded as actiing selfishlyy in that thhey considerr only their own
individuaal travel timees in making
g route choicce decisions,, and not thee manner in which their route
choice in
nfluences thee aggregate travel
t time experienced
e by all motoorists. That iis, they base their
route cho
oice decision
ns on the aveerage travel time
t relationnship.
User equ
uilibrium critterion:
“The
“ averag
ge journey times
t mum which implies thaat the
of all motorists aare a minim
aggregatee vehicle hou
urs spent in travelling iss a minimum
m”.
A user optimal pattern reefers to the in
ndividual pooint of view of each mootorists who tends
to be unaaware of, or at least to be unresponsive to, certaain costs he iimposes on oothers. Hencce the
driver wiill rationally
y not take intto account th
hese costs inn his travel rrelated decissions. Driverrs are
only con
ncerned with
h the privatee costs that they
t must bbear themselves such as petrol costss, the
time cosst of making
g the trip and
a maintaining the veehicle. Conssequently, m
motorists tennd to
underestiimate the soccial cost of trip
t that shou
uld include aall impacts oof their activities on otheers.
A path flow is
i called Waardrop user equilibrium when no drriver has lesss costly alteernate
route.
 Wardrop restated “each path in use operates at minimum cost and each unused path
shows at least minimum cost”.
Wardrop’s second criterion implies that motorists select their routes according to the
marginal cost criterion of economic theory. Drivers are thought to as acting as though they are
aware of the way in which their route choices influence travel times of all drivers using the road
network. If motorists react to the marginal costs they create when they choose a route, then the
total travel time of all vehicles using the system will be minimized.
A number of studies of the route selection behaviour of motorists have shown that
motorists behave according to some criterion intermediate between the two criteria. Blunden and
Taylor both argue that wardrop’s second criterion describes the route choices of motorists better
than Wardrop’s first criterion. However, this evidence is far from conclusive and most of the
traffic assignment techniques used on a routine basis in urban transport studies assumes that
Wardrop’s second criterion governs trip-distribution behaviour. The other trip-distribution
techniques assume that the minimum individual average travel times govern trip-distribution
behaviour.
8.2.2 Diversion Curves
Diversion curve models was developed in early 1950s to know how many drivers would be
diverted from arterial streets to a proposed freeway in order to make decisions related to the
geometric design and capacity of proposed urban freeways.
This model employs empirically derived curves to compute the percentage of trips that would
use the freeway in route between two points on some measure of relative impedance between the
freeway route and the fastest arterial route between the two points.

California diversion curves

These curves used travel-time and travel-distance differences between two alternative paths to
estimate the percentage of trips that would use the freeway.
The formula for determining percentage usage of the freeway in route between two points is
given by
Where
p = percentag
ge usage,
d = distance saved
s in milees,
t = time saveed in minutess,
The diversion curve developed
d by Californiaa diversion cuurve methodd is shown inn figure 8.4.

Fig
gure 8.4 Caliifornia diverrsion curves
8.2.3 Dettroit diversiion curves
The Detrroit Area Traansportation study estim
mated diversioon from a soomewhat diffferent viewppoint,
still using
g a two-paraameter appro
oach. In thiss case, the paarameters foound to be reelated to freeeway
usage weere the ratio of expressw
way speed to
o arterial speeed, and the ratio of exppressway disstance
to arterial distance.. In each case
c the minimum
m appplicable paath was useed for the ratio
computattions.
The diversion curve developed
d by Detroit Arrea Transporrtation Studyy is given in fig 8.5.
 Fiigure 8.5 Deetroit diversiion curves
8.2.4 Burreau of Pub
blic Roads Diversion
D Cu
urve
Undoubtedly, the mo
ost widely used method of diversionn is that whiich is availabble in the Buureau
of Public Road’s series of traafic planning computerr programs. This form
m of diversioon is
dependen
nat on one parameter
p on
nly, the ratio
o of travel ttimes by thee quickest coombined artterial-
freeway route to the quickest arrterial-only route.
r With a one-param
meter relationnship, one ssingle
diversion
n curve defin
nes the relatiionship. Thee form of S-sshaped diverrsion curve iis similar to those
used in th
he Detroit sttudy for high
her speed rattios. Total frreeway usagee occurs wheen the travell time
ratios falll below 48% while no
o freeway ussage can bee anticipatedd when the travel time ratio
exceeds 150% of th
he quickest surface routte.Diversionn curve deveeloped by B
Bureau of P
Public
Road’s iss given in Fiigure 8.6.
 100

EQUAL TIME 
90
Zone‐to‐Zone usage of freeway in 

80
70
PASSENGER CARS 
60
percent 

50 50% USAGE
40
30
20
10
0
0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5
TRAVEL TIME RATIO 

Figure 8.6 Diversion curve developed by Bureau of Public Road’s

The following formula can be fitted to these curves:

Where p = percent of traffic diverted to new system

tr = travel time ratio = .

 
8.3 THE MINIMUM PATH
8.3.1 The minimum path algorithm
Tree building is an important stage in any assignment method for two related reasons.
Firstly, it is performed many times in most algorithms, at least once per iteration. Secondly, a
good tree building algorithm can save a great deal of computer time and costs. An algorithm
searches out routes from a street network according to the driver route selection criterion. There
are two basic algorithms in general use for finding the shortest paths in road networks, one due to
Moore (1957) and one due to Dijkstra (1959). The two will be discussed using a more
convenient node-oriented notation: the length (cost) between links A and B in the network is
denoted by dA,B. the path or route is defined by a series of connected nodes, A-C-D-H, etc.,
whilst the length of the path is the arithmetic sum of the corresponding link lengths in the path.
Let dA denote the minimum distance from the origin of the tree S to the node or centroid A: pA is
the predecessor or backnode of A so that the link (pA, A) is part of the shortest path from S to A.
 
8.3 ROUTE ASSIGNMENT TECHNIQUES:
8.4.1 All-or-nothing assignment:
In this method the trips from any origin zone to any destination zone are loaded onto a single,
minimum cost, path between them. This model is unrealistic as only one path between every O-
D pair is utilised even if there is another path with the same or nearly same travel cost. Also,
traffic on links is assigned without consideration of whether or not there is adequate capacity or
heavy congestion; travel time is a fixed input and does not vary depending on the congestion on
a link. However, this model may be reasonable in sparse and uncongested networks where there
are few alternative routes and they have a large difference in travel cost. This model may also be
used to identify the desired path: the path which the drivers would like to travel in the absence of
congestion. In fact, this model's most important practical application is that it acts as a building
block for other types of assignment techniques. It has a limitation that it ignores the fact that link
travel time is a function of link volume and when there is congestion or that multiple paths are
used to carry traffic.
8.4.2 Multipath traffic assignment:
Mclaughlin developed one of the first multipath traffic assignment techniques. A driver route
selection criterion is used by Mclaughlin which is a function of travel time, travel cost, and
accident potential. The minimum resistance paths between each origin and destination pair are
calculated with all the link resistances set to values which correspond to a zero traffic volume.
The minimum resistance value between an origin and destination pair with resistance values less
than this maximum value are identified.
Mclaughlin used certain principles of linear graph theory to accomplish the multipath
assignment. Using an electrical analogy it is possible to identify through variable y that
corresponds to current, or traffic flow. An across variable x may be identified that corresponds to
potential difference, or traffic pressure.
Two postulates from linear graph theory may be introduced that are known as the vertex and
circuit postulates. At any vertex

Where e = the number of oriented terminal graphs, or elements

Yi = the through variable of the ith element
 ai = 0 if the ith element is not connected to V
= 1 if the ith element is oriented away from V
= -1 if the ith element is oriented toward V
For any circuit,

Where Xi = the through variable of the ith element

bi = 0 if the ith element is not in the jth circuit
= 1 if the ith element orientation is the same as the jth circuit
= -1 if the ith element orientation is opposite to the jth circuit
A subgraph is then established for each origin and destination pair with these representing two
vehicles. The connecting elements are the acceptable paths between the verticles plus one flow
driver element that corresponds to the car travel demand between the origin and destination pair.
The travel demand is assigned among the potential paths in accordance with the path resistance
values calculated during the path building phase. The traffic assigned to each path must be such
that the alternative paths have an equal across variable value.
The across variable X, the resistance value R(y) and the through variable y for each path are
assumed to be related as follows:
X = R(y)y
Equation is analogous to Ohm’s law in that potential is equal to the resistance times the flow. In
this case the resistance along a path is assumed to be a function of the flow along that path.
 
 CHAPTER - 9
TRANSPORTATION SURVEY

9.0 INTRODUCTION
The first stage in the formulation of a transportation plan is to collect data on all factors
that are likely to influence travel pattern. The work involves a number of surveys so as to have
an inventory of existing travel pattern, an inventory of existing transportation facilities and an
inventory of existing land use and economic activities. It also helps in the building up of a local
authority database used for policy & priority determination or in allocating costs & income on a
jointly operated venture.

9.1 DEFINITION OF STUDY AREA

Transportation planning can be at the national level, regional level or at the urban level.
For planning at the urban level, the study area should embrace the whole conurbation containing
the existing and potential continuously built-up areas of the city.
The imaginary line representing the boundary of the study area is termed as the ‘external
cordon’. The area inside the external cordon line determines the travel pattern to a large extent
and as such is surveyed in great detail.
The selection of the external cordon line for an urban transportation study should be done
carefully due to the following factors.
i. The external cordon lines should circumscribe all areas which are already built-up
and those areas which are considered likely to be developed during the period of
study.
ii. The external cordon line should be compatible with previous studies and the area
of studies planned for the future.
iii. The external cordon line should be continuous and uniform in its course so that
movement crosses it once. The line should intersect roads where it is safe and
convenient to carry out traffic surveys.

9.2 ZONING
The defined study area is sub-divided into smaller areas called zones. The purpose of
such a sub-division is to facilitate the spatial quantification of land use and economic factors
which influence travel pattern. The data collected on individual household basis cannot be
conveniently considered and analysed unless they are aggregated into small zones.
Sub-division into zones further helps in geographically associating the origins and
destinations of travel. In large study projects, it is more convenient to divide the study area into
sectors, which are sub-divided into smaller zones.
A convenient system of coding of the zones will be useful for the study. One such system
is to divide the study area into 9 sectors. Each sector is sub-divided into 10 zones. A sub-zone
bearing a number 481 belongs to sector 4 and to zone 8 in that sector and is sub-zone 1 in that
zone.
Zones are modelled as if all their attributes and properties were concentrated in a single
point called the zonecentroid. The centroids are connected to the nearest road junction or rail
station by centroid connectors. Both centroid and centroid connectors are notional and it is
assumed that all people have same travel cost from the centroid to the nearest transport facility
which is the average for a zone. The intersection from outside world is normally represented
through external zones. The external zones are defined by the catchment area of the major
transport links feeding to the study area. Although the list is not complete, few guidelines are
given below for selecting zones.
1. Zones should match other administrative divisions, particularly census zones.
2. Zones should have homogeneous characteristics, especially in land use, population etc.
3. Zone boundaries should match cordon and screen lines, but should not match major
roads.
4. Zones should be as smaller in size as possible so that the error in aggregation caused by
the assumption that all activities are concentrated at the zone centroids is minimum.
5. The zones should have a homogenous land use.
6. Natural or physical barriers such as canals, rives etc can form convenient zone
boundaries.
9.3 TYPES
T OF MOVEMEN
M NTS
The
T basic mo
ovements forr which surveey data are rrequired are::
i. Intern
nal to Internaal
iii. Intern
nal to External
iiii. Extern
nal to Internal
iv
v. Extern
nal to Extern
nal

Figure
F 9.1: Basic
B Movem
ments in a T
Transportatioon Survey

For largee urban areass, the internaal to internal travel is heaavy whereass for small arreas having small
populatio
on the intern
nal to internaal travel is insignificant
i t. The internnal to internaal and internnal to
external travels can be studied
d by home interview teechnique. T
The external to externall and
external to internal travels
t can be
b studied by
y cordon surrveys. The iinternal to innternal traveel can
urveyed by home
also be su h interviiew techniqu
ue
Movemeent Type
i) Business movement
ii) Commuteer movementt
iii) Holiday movement
m
iv) Other priv
vate movement
Data Collection Tecchniques
1. Home
H Interviiew Survey
 i) Telephone survey
ii) Mail back
iii) Face to face
2. Commercial Vehicle Survey
i) Stop line survey
ii) Innovative Commercial Vehicle Tracking Methods
3. Intermediate Public Transport Survey
4. Cordon-Line Survey
5. Post Card Questionnaire Survey
6. Registration – Number Survey
7. Tag – on – Vehicle Survey
8. Group Survey
9. Observation Survey
10. In Depth Survey
11. Online Web Survey
 
9.4.4 Intermediate Public Transport Survey
These survey can be carried out in different ways as follows:
1) Direct interview survey
2) Post card distribution and collection survey
3) Pre paid questionnaires distribution and collection survey
In order to assess the number of bus passengers passing through an external cordon,
the survey can either be by direct interview with the passengers or by issuing post-card
questionnaires. Direct interview is likely to result in large delays and requires a large number
of interviews.
In order to minimize the delays, the interviewer may enter the vehicle and carry out
the interviews when the vehicle is in motion. Post-card questionnaires eliminates delays, but
are likely to evoke poor response or contain and element of bias.
An external cordon rail survey can be carried out by interviewing the passengers on
trains. Alternatively, pre-paid questionnaires may be distributed to persons residing at
stations outside the survey area. These questionnaires may also be collected at the stations
inside the survey area.
9.4.5 Cordon-Line Survey
These provide useful information about trips from and to external zones. For large
study area, internal cordon line can be defined and surveying can be conducted. The objective
of the survey is primarily to collect the origin and destination zones and for this many
suitable methods can be adopted. It could be either recording the license plate number at all
the external cordon points or by post-card method.
Screen lines divide the study area into large natural zones, like either sides of a river,
with few crossing points between them. The procedure for both cordon-line and screen-line
survey are similar to road-side interview. However, these counts are primarily used for
calibration and validation of the models.
9.4.6 Post-Card Questionnaire Survey
In this survey, reply-paid questionnaires are handed over to each of the drivers or a
sample of them at the survey points and requesting them to complete the information and
return by post. The method avoids delay caused to the drivers by the direct roadside interview
method but suffers from the disadvantage that the response may not be good. For this reason
its use is not generally recommended for developing countries. It is possible to get a good
amount of information from this method. The method is simpler and cheaper than many

105
others.
A good amount of publicity is needed before the actual survey in order to get
favourable response. It is reported that well planned and publicized post card questionnaire
surveys have yielded returns of 50% or more.
This method can be used on roadways with higher traffic volumes because they
require less interaction time with the driver. Drivers may not have to be directed off the
roadway; rather, postcards can be quickly handed out in the traffic lanes to every vehicle as
they stop at the roadside station. Like the roadside interview, adequate advanced warning
signs and traffic control must be in place for the safety of the drivers and observers.
To complement roadside interviews, this method may be used when backups occur
upstream from the interview site. In this case, postcards may be handed to the drivers and
they are then permitted to leave. This will eliminate or reduce the delay and number of angry
drivers who are stopped to take the interview. This method can be used as an alternative or in
combination with roadside interviews (RSIs).
In this method, the same information is generally collected as in RSIs, but the survey
is conducted via a postcard that is handed to the driver, completed after the trip, and mailed
back. A given number of personnel could hand out more questionnaires than conduct
roadside interviews.
The problem with this method is the lower response rate than with a roadside
interview. In addition, more of the questions may be skipped or answered incorrectly.
Generally, response rates for this method are between 15% and 30%. Furthermore, a lot of
time has to be spent reducing returned survey forms, and more money is spent for printing
them. There may be a bias in this type of survey, if non respondents (such as certain vehicle
types or income levels) have different travel characteristics and demographics than
respondents. For example, surveys may not be completed for several reasons: refusal to
accept survey, failure to read it, failure to understand it, failure to complete it, and failure to
send it back.
9.4.7 Registration – Number Survey
In the registration address technique vehicle registration numbers are recorded and
their origin or destination is deduced from their registered address. Alternatively a
questionnaire is sent to the registered address in order to collect information on the trip
details. For commercial vehicles the registered address often bears no relationship to the trip
origin or destination, particularly for vehicles engaged in long distance travel. Furthermore, a

106
mail questionnaire would be subject to a low response rate in the same way as the postcard
reply technique. An added complication is that by the time a particular driver received a
questionnaire the exact details of the trip may have been forgotten. First of all, the area to be
surveyed is defined, and the roads intersecting cordon lines are identified. At each survey
point, one or two observers are stationed to record the data in each direction of travel. One
can call out the registration number of the vehicle and the other can record. Time should be
recorded at regular intervals. If actual time at entry and exit are noted, an estimate of the
journey speed of the vehicle can also be had. The type of vehicle and as well as the full
registration number are noted. The analysis consists of tallying the numbers of vehicles at
points of entry and exit.

9.4.8 License Plate Follow-Up Survey Technique

This technique uses one of methods described above in order to record license plates
at a particular roadside station. A list of license plates is then supplied to the Department of
Motor Vehicle (DMV) to obtain contact information for the vehicle owner. A survey is sent
to the vehicle owner, who is then asked to respond to a survey of questions regarding the
specific trip on which their license plate was recorded. In order to obtain contact information
of vehicle owners from the DMV, the full license plate must be recorded. Depending upon
the recording method and the requirements of each DMV, the license plates may or may not
have to be transcribed into a specific format. Once the contact information is obtained from
the motor vehicles department, a survey of the vehicle owners can be conducted. It is critical
that the date, time stamp, location, direction of travel, and other relevant information (such as
how their vehicle was recorded and contact information obtained) be included in the
information provided to the vehicle owner. This survey is usually conducted via a telephone
interview or postcard mail-out with response via mail-in, telephone, and/or internet. License
plate follow-up surveys have resulted in both successful and unsuccessful OD studies. They
are beneficial in that they are unobtrusive like the license plate matching technique, but
detailed information (trip purpose, true origin and destination, etc.) can still be obtained from
the actual driver of the vehicle using that specific road. Below figure illustrates the types of
trips that can be obtained from the license plate follow-up survey technique. Like the license
plate matching technique, the lighter-shaded arrows represent the trips from one entry node to
all other exit nodes (E-E trips). However, instead of one dark-shaded arrow that aggregates
all E-I trips from the external station to the internal TAZs, information provided from the

107
license pplate follow up survey teechnique proovides inforrmation on tthe distributiion of the E-I
E
trips to each of the TAZs inside the
t cordon liine.

F
Figure: 9. 1 Types of Trrips from Liccense Plate F
Follow-Up S
Survey Technnique

L
License plates must be reecorded roaddside using one
o of the meethods descrribed above in
i
the license plate mattching sectioon. With thiis method, however,
h it iis important to record thhe
full licennse plate of the
t vehicle in
i order to contact
c the proper
p state m
motor vehiclle departmennt
(the Indiiana Bureauu of Motor Vehicles
V dooes not havee informatioon on out-off-state licensse
plates) aand a partiaal license pllate will noot be usefull. The advaantage over license plaate
matchingg is that obtaaining each and every passing
p licennse plate is not
n as criticaal because thhe
plates aree not being matched to another obsservation staation, althouugh it is stilll important to
t
record ass many licen
nse plates as possible. Thhe license plates will likeely have to be
b transcribeed
into an acceptable foormat and seent to each of the respecttive departm
ments of mottor vehicles to
t
obtain adddresses.
108
9.4.9 Tag – on – Vehicle Survey
In this method, drivers are stopped at roadside stations where a colour-coded
identifier is placed on the bumper, front window, or radio antenna of passing vehicles. Each
roadside station has one unique colour assigned to it. Data collectors at each station then
record the passing vehicles' tag color (if it has one) to determine the percentage of vehicles
coming from another station. Drivers are instructed to remove the identifier at their next
destination. With this method, a time stamp will not likely be obtained. The tag-on-vehicle
method is a combination of the VIS and matching techniques. Because the vehicles have to
be stopped on the roadway in order for a tag to be placed on their vehicle, it is considered a
VIS. However, the tags are monitored as they pass observers through subsequent stations on
their trip, so it is also a type of matching technique. The advantages of the tag-on-vehicle
method are that it is quicker to conduct than an RSI and easier to match between stations than
license plates. However, time stamps may not be collected, unless the vehicle is stopped
again at the second station to obtain that information.
On the downside, some motorists may not like the idea of physically attaching a tag to
their vehicle, and may disapprove of its placement or remove it before their destination. Still
other motorists may leave it attached even after they arrive at their destination, which may
cause a significant number of false matches if the vehicle is spotted later in the study. In
addition, litter could become a problem if tags are not secured or drivers do not dispose of
them properly.

109
110
111
112
113
 Origin and Destination Survey – Roadside Interview Method

Date: Name of Town: Sheet No.:

Survey Location: Name of Interviewer: Weather conditions:

Location (km): Direction of Travel: Hours:

From: To:

Whether likely
Whether a
No. of Goods carried to halt in the
Time of Route bypass will
Sl. Vehicle Registration Trip Trip persons town Trip
intervie course be desirable
No. type number origin destination in the No. Purpos purpose
w (via) if not state
vehicle Type Tonnage of e of
reasons
halts halts

Source: IRC: 102-1988.

114
 Typical Form for Commercial Vehicle Survey

Firm/Owner Visit Time Date Interviewer’s Name Sheet of

1
2
Address 3 Comments: Ser. No.
4
Person Interviewed 5 Zone No.

Telephone No.

Part I. Business Information

A. Nature of Business Male/female

B. Total Number of employees
C. Number of vehicles operating from address
Cars Parked on premises Parked elsewhere
Light Goods Parked on premises Parked elsewhere
Heavy Goods Parked on premises Parked elsewhere
D. Day of travel
E. Total number of trips made on day of travel
F. Type and number of vehicles interviewed
Vehicle No.
Vehicle Reg. No.

Part II. Vehicle Trip Information

G H I J K L

Time of Trip
Vehicle Vehicle Trip Origin Destination Start Finish
Type Number Number Address Address
AM AM
PM PM
Nature of Nature of
Business: Business:
AM AM
PM PM
Nature of Nature of
Business: Business:

115
 Sample Roadside Interview Form

Day Wet Separate Yes… Sheet

Date Dry Count ? No… No.
Site Private Sample Total
Direction Bus
Half-hour starting at Goods
Last Next
Veh. No. of Last Stop Trip
Next stop land land
Type occupants purpose
use use

Vehicle Type Land use Trip purpose

0. Motor cycle 0. Residential 0. To work
1. Car 1. Hotel, guest house, 1. Work to home
Restaurant
2. Taxi 2. School, College, 2. Others to home
University
3. City Bus 3. Offices 3. Shopping
4. Light Commercial 4. Shops, markets 4. Business (own or
employed)
5. Heavy Commercial 5. Industrial, docks, 5. Personal affairs
(truck) utilities
6. Passenger Vehicle 6. Hospitals, doctors 6. School
(truck)
7. Country Bus 7. Cultural recreational 7. Eat meal
and other
8. Police, military, fire 8. School/recreational
stations
9. Transport terminals, 9. Serve passenger
bus stops

116
 Sample Registration Number Plate Survey Form

Sheet No.
Site : Okhla Weather : Overcast
Observation point : Mathura Road Observer : BNG
Movement Observed : Delhi-bound Recorder : OPB
Sheet starting time : 8-00 A.M. Date : 24-1-76
Sample :
Registration Numbers ending with : all even numbers, including zero.
Vehicle class : All
Column Start Time
8-00 8-05 8-10 8-15
DLQ 2660 DLX 742 JKN 528 UPS 584
DLM 2832 DLN 3856 PUN 4973
DLP 8485 HRP 9485 DLQ 947

117
 CHAPTER -10
TRANSPORT RELATED LAND-USE MODELS

10.1 INTRODUCTION
Land use models seek to predict a region’s future spatial distribution of households and
employment, and provide key inputs to models of travel demand, emissions, and air quality.
Integrated transport-land use models (ITLUMs) allow analysts to anticipate system response to
new policies, preference functions, economic conditions and other scenarios. Though not nearly
as complex as the human systems they seek to mimic, such model systems are very complicated.
Such complication results in multiple challenges and attendant abstractions result in many
modeling limitations as well as prediction errors.
Land use comprises two elements; the nature of land use which relates to which activities
are taking place where, and the level of spatial accumulation, which indicates their intensity and
concentration. Central areas have a high level of spatial accumulation and corresponding land
uses, such as retail, while peripheral areas have lower levels of accumulation. Most economic,
social or cultural activities imply a multitude of functions, such as production, consumption and
distribution. These functions take place at specific locations and are part of an activity system.
Some are routine activities, because they occur regularly and are thus predictable, such as
commuting and shopping. Others are institutional activities that tend to be irregular, and are
inspired by lifestyle (e.g. sports and leisure) or by special needs (e.g. healthcare). Others are
production activities that are related to manufacturing and distribution, whose linkages may be
local, regional or global. The behavioral patterns of individuals, institutions and firms have an
imprint on land use in terms of their locational choice.
At the global level, cities consume about 3% of the total land mass. Although figures can
vary considerably depending on the city, residential land use is the most common, occupying
between 65 and 75% of the surface of a city. Commercial and industrial land uses occupy 5-15%
and 15-25% of the surface respectively. Land use, both in formal and functional representations,
implies a set of relationships with other land uses. For instance, commercial land use involves
relationships with its supplier and customers. While relationships with suppliers will dominantly
be related with movements of freight, relationships with customers would include movements of
people. Thus, a level of accessibility to both systems of circulation must be present. Since each
type of land use has its own specific mobility requirements, transportation is a factor of activity
location, and is therefore associated intimately with land use.
Within an urban system each activity occupies a suitable, but not necessarily optimal
location, from which it derives rent. Transportation and land use interactions mostly consider the
retroactive relationships between activities, which are land use related, and accessibility, which
is transportation related. These relationships have often been described as difficult to identify the
triggering cause of change; do transportation changes precede land use changes or vice-versa?
There is a scale effect at play as large infrastructure projects tend to precede and trigger land use
changes while small scale transportation projects tend to complement the existing land use
pattern. Further, the expansion of urban land uses takes place over various circumstances such as
infilling (near the city center) or sprawl (far from the city center) and where in each case,
transportation plays a different role.
Urban transportation aims at supporting transport demands generated by the diversity of
urban activities in a diversity of urban contexts. A key for understanding urban entities thus lies
in the analysis of patterns and processes of the transport / land use system. This system is highly
complex and involves several relationships between the transport system, spatial interactions and
land use:

 Transport system. Considers the set of transport infrastructures and modes that support
urban movements of passengers and freight. It generally expresses the level of
accessibility.
 Spatial interactions. Consider the nature, extent, origins and destinations of the urban
movements of passengers and freight. They take into consideration the attributes of the
transport system as well as the land use factors that are generating and attracting
movements.
 Land use. Considers the level of spatial accumulation of activities and their associated
levels of mobility requirements. Land use is commonly linked with demographic and
economic attributes.

10.2 URBAN LAND USE MODELS

 The relationships between transportation and land use are rich in theoretical
representations that have contributed much to regional sciences. Since transportation is a
distance-decay altering technology, spatial organization is assumed to be strongly influenced by
the concepts of location and distance. Several descriptive and analytical models of urban land
use have been developed over time, with increased levels of complexity. All involve adequate
consideration of transport in the explanations of urban land use structures. The following is a
non-exhaustive categorization:

 Central places and concentric land uses. Von Thunen’s regional land use model is the
oldest representation based on a central place, the market town, and its concentric
impacts on surrounding land uses. It was initially developed in the early 19th century
(1826) for the analysis of agricultural land use patterns in Germany. It used the concept
of economic rent to explain a spatial organization where different agricultural activities
are competing for the usage of land. The underlying principles of this model have been
the foundation of many others where economic considerations, namely land rent and
distance-decay, are incorporated. The core assumption of the model is that agricultural
land use is patterned in the form of concentric circles around a market that consumes all
the surplus production, which must be transported. Many concordances of this model
with reality have been found, notably in North America.
 Concentric urban land uses. The Burgess concentric model was among the first
attempts to investigate spatial patterns at the urban level (1925). Although the purpose of
the model was to analyze social classes, it recognized that transportation and mobility
were important factors behind the spatial organization of urban areas. The formal land
use representation of this model is derived from commuting distance from the central
business district, creating concentric circles. Each circle represents a specific
socioeconomic urban landscape. This model is conceptually a direct adaptation of the
Von Thunen's model to urban land use since it deals with a concentric representation.
Even close to one century after the concentric urban model was designed, spatial changes
in Chicago are still reflective of such a process.
 Polycentric and zonal land uses. Sector and multiple nuclei land use models were
developed to take into account numerous factors overlooked by concentric models,
 namely the influence of transport axis (Hoyt, 1939) and multiple nuclei (Harris and
Ullman, 1945) on land use and growth. Both representations consider the emerging
impacts of motorization on the urban spatial structure. Such representations also
considered that transportation infrastructures, particularly terminals such as rail stations
or ports, occupy specific locations and can be considered as land uses.
 Hybrid land uses. Hybrid models are an attempt to include the concentric, sector and
nuclei behaviour of different processes in explaining urban land use. They are an attempt
to integrate the strengths of each approach since none of these appear to provide a
completely satisfactory explanation. Thus, hybrid models, such as that developed by Isard
(1955), consider the concentric effect of central locations (CBDs and sub-centers) and the
radial effect of transport axis, all overlain to form a land use pattern. Also, hybrid
representations are suitable to explain the evolution of the urban spatial structure as they
combine different spatial impacts of transportation on urban land use, let them be
concentric or radial, and this at different points in time.
 Land use market. Land rent theory was also developed to explain land use as a market
where different urban activities are competing for land usage at a location. It is strongly
based in the market principle of spatial competition where actors are bidding to secure
and maintain their presence at a specific location. The more desirable a location is, the
higher its rent value. Transportation, through accessibility and distance-decay, is a strong
explanatory factor on the land rent and its impacts on land use. However, conventional
representations of land rent leaning on the concentric paradigm are being challenged by
structural modifications of contemporary cities.

Most transportation - land use models are essentially static as they explain land use
patterns, but they do not explicitly consider the processes that are creating or changing them.
Their applicability is related to issues such as the age, size and the locational setting of a city. For
instance, concentric cities are generally older and of smaller size, while polycentric cities are
larger and relate to urban development processes that took place more recently. While most of
the conceptual approaches related to transportation and land use relationships have been
developed using empirical evidence related to North America and Western Europe, this
perspective does not necessarily apply to other parts of the world.
10.3 TRANSPORTATION AND URBAN DYNAMICS
Both land use and transportation are part of a dynamic system that is subject to external
influences. Each component of the system is constantly evolving due to changes in technology,
policy, economics, demographics and even culture or values. As a result, the interactions
between land use and transportation are played out as the outcome of the many decisions made
by residents, businesses and governments. The field of urban dynamics has expended the scope
of conventional land use models, which tended to be descriptive, by trying to consider
relationships behind the evolution of the urban spatial structure. This has led to a complex
modeling framework including a wide variety of components. Among the concepts supporting
urban dynamics representations are retroactions, whereby one component changes it influences
others. The changes will influence the initial component back, either positively or negatively.
The most significant components of urban dynamics are:

 Land use. This is the most stable component of urban dynamics, as changes are likely to
modify the land use structure over a rather long period of time. This comes as little
surprise since most real estate is built to last at least several decades. The main impact of
land use on urban dynamics is its function of a generator and attractor of movements.
 Transport network. This is also considered to be a rather stable component of urban
dynamics, as transport infrastructures are built for the long term. This is particularly the
case for large transport terminals and subway systems that can operate for a very long
period of time. For instance, many railway stations are more than one hundred years old.
The main contribution of the transport network to urban dynamics is the provision of
accessibility. Changes in the transport network will impact accessibility and movements.
 Movements. The most dynamic component of the system since movements of passengers
or freight reflect almost immediately changes. Movements thus tend more to be an
outcome of urban dynamics than a factor shaping them.
 Employment and workplaces. They account for significant inducement effects over
urban dynamics since many models often consider employment as an exogenous factor.
This is specifically the case for employment that is categorized as basic, or export
 oriented, which is linked with specific economic sectors such as manufacturing.
Commuting is a direct outcome of the number of jobs and the location of workplaces.
 Population and housing. They act as the generators of movements, because residential
areas are the sources of commuting. Since there are a wide array of incomes, standards of
living, preferences and ethnicity, this diversity is reflected in the urban spatial structure.
10.4 TYPES OF MODELS
To understand the behavior of urban areas, several operational transportation / land use
models (TLUM) have been developed. The reasons behind using TLUM are the ability to
forecast future urban patterns based on a set of economic assumptions or to evaluate the potential
impacts of legislations pertaining to environmental standards. Other uses of TLUM relate to
testing theories, policies and practices about urban systems. With a simulation model, urban
theories can be evaluated and the impacts of policy measures, such as growth management and
congestion pricing can be measured. It is not surprising that since TLUM are planning tools per
se, their development and application has mainly been done by various government agencies
related to transportation, regional planning and the environment.
Broadly taken, a model is an information construct used to represent and process relationships
between a set of concepts, ideas, and beliefs. Models have a language, commonly mathematics
(expressed as functions in various computer programming languages), an intended use and a
correspondence to reality. There are four levels of complexity related to the modeling
transportation / land use relationships:

 Static modeling. Express the state of a system at a given point in time through the
classification and arithmetic manipulation of representative variables. Measuring
accessibility can be considered as static modeling.
 System modeling. Express the behaviour of a system with a given set of relationships
between variables. The gravity model is an example of system modeling as it tries to
evaluate the generation and attraction of movements.
 Modeling interactions between systems. Tries to integrate several models to form a
meta-system (a large and complex system). A transportation / land use model offers such
a perspective.
 Modeling in a decision-taking environment. This not only implies the application of a
transportation / land use model, but the analysis and reporting of its results in order to
find strategies and recommendations. Geographic Information Systems are useful tools
for that purpose as they can include the modeling, its graphic display as well as being the
platform over which decision making can take place.
10.5 DATA REQUIREMENTS
A variety of survey methods are used to collect data including roadside questionnaires,
telephone interviews, and detailed activity modeling. Data availability and limitation is an
important factor behind the applicability of such models and there is a constant trade-off between
the costs of fulfilling the data requirements and the benefits supplementary data may offer. Data
needs to be constantly be updated as demographic, economic and technological changes are
taking place. This is one of the major reasons why the transportation / land use modeling process,
although theoretically and conceptually sound, has not been applied comprehensively. Among
the major types of variables, it is possible to identify:

 Land use data. Include socio-economic variables pertaining to the area under
investigation, such as population, employment, income level, commercial activity, etc.
Such data is used to estimate or calibrate the amount of travel generated and
attracted by each zone.
 Travel generation factors. Considering the available land use data, these factors
estimate the number of trips, people and/or freight, each level of economic activity
generates. They consider a multitude of issues such as income, modal preferences and
consumption levels. Most of this information can be gathered using surveys or inferring
from observations made elsewhere.
 Friction of distance factors. They represent the difficulty of travelling between different
locations of the area under investigation, commonly measured in terms of time, distance
of cost. There is a significant variance according to mode and purpose of travel. Friction
of distance factors enable to assess trip distribution and modal split.
 Calibration factors. It is uncommon that the results produced by an uncalibrated model
are corresponding to the reality. Calibration factors thus try to match the results produced
by the model with data based on observations, surveys or common sense. Calibration can
often be an obscure process, because it tries to incorporate factors that are not explained
by the model itself.
 Transportation networks. A representation of the structure and geometry of
transportation within the area under investigation mainly composed of nodes and links.
Transportation networks are commonly divided by modes. For road transportation, a
 node could represent an intersection, a stop or a parking lot, while a segment could be
linked with attributes such as permitted speed, distance and capacity. For public transit, a
node could represent a bus stop or a metro station, while a segment could have attributes
such as capacity and frequency of service. Transportation networks, along with origin-
destination matrices, are fundamental elements of the traffic assignment procedure.

10.6 MAJOR MODELS

There are a wide variety of TLUM, most of them developed during the quantitative
revolution that transformed geography in the 1960s and 1970s. Among the best known are:
 Lowry Model. Considered to be the first transportation / land use model (1964), it links
two spatial interaction components. The first calculates spatial interactions between basic
employment activities and zones of residence, while the second calculates spatial
interactions between service employment activities and zones of residence. The Lowry
model is discussed in more details later section.
 ITLUP. The Integrated Transportation and Land Use Package is composed of a
residential allocation model, an employment allocation model, and a travel demand
model.
 MEPLAN. This model is a derivative of the Lowry model, since it is based on the
economic base theory. It considers the two components of the transportation / land use
system as markets, one market for land use and one market for transportation.
 TELUS. Transport Economic Land Use System. (under construction)
 Cellular automata. A new range of models where space is represented as a grid (raster)
with a set rule enforced to govern the state of a cell depending on the configuration of its
adjacent cells.

The core of most transportation / land use model is some kind of regional economic
forecast that predicts and assigns the location of the basic employment sector. As such, they are
dependent on the reliability and accuracy of macro-economic and micro-economic forecasting.
Traditionally, such forecasting tends not to be very accurate as it fails to assess the impacts of
economic, social and technological changes. For instance, globalization and the emergence of
global commodity chains have significantly altered the dynamics of regional economies.
Additionally, few TLUM are dealing with freight transportation. This can be explained
by the fact that passengers transportation in urban areas tends to be highly regulated by
governmental agencies (e.g. public transit) while freight transportation is dominantly controlled
by private entities. Paradoxically, while freight related activities such as terminals and
distribution centers tend to occupy a large amount of space, they do not generate a large amount
of passenger traffic.
10.7 COM
MPONENT
TS OF A TR
RANSPORT
TATION / LAND
L USE SYSTEM

Figuree 10.1: Com

mponents of Transporta
T ation Land U
Use System

A transpoortation / lan
nd use system
m can be divvided in threee subcategorries of modeels:
 L
Land use models are geenerally conncerned abouut the spatiaal structure of
o macro annd
m
micro-econom
mic compoonents, which are oft
ften correlated with transportatio
t on
reequirements.. For instannce, by using a set of economic
e acctivity variaables, such aas
population annd level of consumption
c n it becomess possible too calculate thhe generatioon
annd attractionn of passengeers and freigght flows.
 Spatial interractions moodels are moostly concernned about the spatial distribution
d oof
m
movements, a function of land use
u (demandd) and trannsportation infrastructurre
(ssupply). Theey produce flow
fl estimatees between spatial
s entities, symbolizzed by originn-
destination paairs, which can
c be disagggregated by nature, modde and time of
o the day.
 T
Transportati
ion network
k models aree trying to evvaluate how
w movementss are allocateed
ovver a transpportation network, oftenn of severall modes, nootably privatte and public
trransportationn. They prrovide traff
ffic estimatees for anyy given seegment of a
trransportationn network.
T provide a compreheensive modeeling framew
To work, all thhese modelss must sharre
informatiion to form an
a integrateed transporrtation / land
d use modell. For instan
nce, a land usse
model caan calculatee traffic genneration andd attraction, which can be inputtedd in a spatial
interactioon model. Th
he origin-deestination maatrix provideed by a spattial interactio
on model caan
be inputtted in a trafffic assignmeent model, reesulting in ssimulated floows on the transportatio
t on
network.
10.8 ME
EASURING THE TRAN
NSPORTAT
TION / LAN
ND USE SY
YSTEM

Figuree 10.2: Measuring the Transportat

T tion Land Use
U System

Four majjor categoriees of variablees are measuuring the trannsportation / land use system:
 A
Administrati
ive Division
ns. Most datta is gathereed along a spatial
s frameework, whicch
coorresponds to
t administraative divisioons. Since the space overr which the transportatio
t on
laand use moddeling process is undertaaken is adm
ministered in one way or another (is it
possible to finnd any portiion of space that is not claimed
c to bbe administerred by a form
m
of institution
n?), this poolitical attribbute is of significant consequencce. The data
coollection proocess inheritts the established zoningg, such as cennsus districtss, counties, or
o
m
municipalities, to name a few. In som
me cases, addministrativee divisions are
a politicallly
coonvenient and
a structurred, but may
m underm
mine the vaalidity or relevance oof
trransportationn / land use modeling. On
O the abovve figure, seection A rep
presents a citty
diivided in siix administrrative divisiions (i1 to i6), in whiich data is acquired annd
m
maintained by
b governmeental agenciies. It is poossible for tthe modelin
ng process tto
reedefine the divisions
d of space, but costs
c are alsoo significanttly increasedd, because thhe
data gathering
g process woould have to be started fr
from scratch..
 L
Land Use. This type of information
i is commonlly maintaineed as zoningg maps, wherre
thhe formal or
o functionaal (preferablly) characteeristics of thhe territory are defined.
A
Although thiss data is moostly qualitattive, it is off high relevaance since itt links spatial
innformation, such as administrativ
a ve division--related infoormation, too a tangible
geographic reeality. In secction B, the city
c is characcterized by ffour types off land use (L
L1
too L4). If we assume thatt land use typpe L1 is com
mmercial, it iis logical to conclude that
anny commerccially relatedd data conceerning adminnistrative division i4 inv
volves a verry
sppecific area.
  Traffic. This type of information pertains to maintain, validate and update a spatial
interaction matrix. Commonly, the centroid of an origin-destination matrix, is an
abstraction of an administrative division, as centroid T6 is an abstraction of
administrative division i6 (section C). It is "assumed" that all traffic coming from or
going to i6 is generated or attracted by centroid T6. Traffic between centroids is also a
component of this matrix, where T32 would represent traffic between zone i3 and i2
and T32 would present the opposite. It is also possible to use an index k identifying a
mode, if the transportation system is multimodal, which is almost always the case.
 Transportation Network. This type of information is related to the characteristics
and structure of transportation infrastructures. The network is commonly represented
as a geometric construct composed of nodes and segments. In the case of a
multimodal network, such as the one portrayed on section D, there are two types of
segments and intermodal nodes (Ikl) are possible.

10.9 THE LOWRY MODEL

The model can be singly constrained, that is the only constraint is the fixed location
of basic employment, as it is the case for the below set of equations. It can also be doubly
constrained, where the location of basic employment and housing are fixed. The Lowry
model structure may be expressed in terms of the following system of equations :
p  eA (1)

e s  pB (2)

e  eb  e s (3)
where p  a row vector of the population or households within each of the n

zones.
e  a row vector of the total employment in each zone
e s  a row vector of the population-serving employment in each zone
e b  a row vector of the basic employment in each zone
A  an n  n matrix of the workplace-to-household accessibilities.
B  an n  n matrix of the household-to-service centre accessibilities

The A accessibility matrix may be expanded as follows :

A  [aij' ][a j ] (4)

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Where
[ a 'ij ]  n  n square matrix of the probabilities of an employee working in i and

living in j .
[ a j ]  an n  n diagonal matrix of the inverse of the labour participation rates,

expressed either as population per employee, or households employee.

The B accessibility matrix be expanded as follows:
B  [b 'ij ] [bi ] (5)

Where [b 'ij ]  an n  n square matrix of the probabilities that the population in j

will be serviced by population service employment in t

[bi ]  an n  n diagonal matrix of the population serving employment-to-

population ratios.
The Lowry model has obviously several limitations. It is notably a static model,
which does not tell anything about the evolution of the transportation / land use system.
Furthermore, current economic changes are in the service (non-basic) sectors, forming the
foundation of urban productivity and dynamics in many metropolitan areas. Under such
circumstances the model is likely to be inaccurate in the major service-oriented metropolitan
areas of today. A way to overcome this issue is to consider some non-basic service
employment as basic. The Lowry model does not consider movements of freight in urban
areas, which are very significant and have impacts on the friction of distance.

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