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Fin Econ 05 4 PDF
Fin Econ 05 4 PDF
Portfolio theory
Suppose there are N risky assets, whose rates of returns are given
by the random variables R1, · · · , RN , where
Sn(1) − Sn(0)
Rn = , n = 1, 2, · · · , N.
Sn(0)
Let w = (w1 · · · wN )T , wn denotes the proportion of wealth invested
N
X
in asset i, with wn = 1. The rate of return of the portfolio is
n=1
N
X
RP = wnRn.
n=1
Assumptions
Remark
2 . In mean-variance
The portfolio risk of return is quantified by σP
analysis, only the first two moments are considered in the port-
folio model. Investment theory prior to Markowitz considered the
maximization of µP but without σP .
Two-asset portfolio
Consider two assets with known means R1 and R2, variances σ12 and
σ22, of the expected rates of returns R1 and R2, together with the
correlation coefficient ρ.
σ1
The quantity (1 − α)σ1 − ασ2 remains positive until α = .
σ1 + σ2
σ1
When α > , the locus traces out the upper line AP2.
σ1 + σ2
Suppose −1 < ρ < 1, the minimum variance point on the curve that
represents various portfolio combinations is determined by
2
∂σP
= −2(1 − α)σ12 + 2ασ22 + 2(1 − 2α)ρσ1σ2 = 0
∂α
↑
set
giving
σ12 − ρσ1σ2
α= 2 .
σ1 − 2ρσ1σ2 + σ22
Mathematical formulation of Markowitz’s mean-variance analysis
N N
1 XX
minimize wi wj σij
2 i=1 j=1
N
X N
X
subject to wi Ri = µP and wi = 1.
i=1 i=1
Solution
wg =
Ω−1 1= 1 .
Ω−1
T
a
1 Ω−11
Another portfolio that corresponds to λ1 = 0 is obtained when µP is taken to be
c
. The value of the other Lagrangian multiplier is given by
b
¡ ¢
a cb − b 1
λ2 = = .
∆ b
The optimal weight of this particular portfolio is
Ω−1 µ Ω−1µ
w∗d = = T
.
b
1 Ω−1µ
¡ c ¢2 ¡c¢
a − 2b +c c
Also, σd2 = b b
= .
∆ b2
Feasible set
2. The feasible region is convex to the left. That is, given any two
points in the region, the straight line connecting them does not
cross the left boundary of the feasible region.
The left boundary of a feasible region is called the minimum variance
set. The most left point on the minimum variance set is called the
minimum variance point. The portfolios in the minimum variance
set are called frontier funds.
For a given level of risk, only those portfolios on the upper half
of the efficient frontier are desired by investors. They are called
efficient funds.
Remark
Let w1 = (w11 · · · wn
1 ), λ1, λ1 and w 2 = (w 2 · · · w 2)T , λ2, µ2 are two
1 2 1 n
known solutions to the minimum variance formulation with expected
rates of return µ1 2
P and µP , respectively.
n
X
σij wj − λ1 − λ2Ri = 0, i = 1, 2, · · · , n (1)
j=1
Xn
wiri = µP (2)
i=1
n
X
wi = 1. (3)
i=1
3. Note that
n h
X i
αwi1 + (1 − α)wi2 Ri
i=1
Xn n
X
= α wi1Ri + (1 − α) wi2Ri
i=1 i=1
= αµ1
P + (1 − α)µ 2.
P
Proposition
Proof
wu = (1 − u)wg + uwd
wv = (1 − v)wg + v wd
we then solve for wg and wd in terms of wu and wv . Then
Security covariance Ri
1 2.30 0.93 0.62 0.74 −0.23 15.1
2 0.93 1.40 0.22 0.56 0.26 12.5
3 0.62 0.22 1.80 0.78 −0.27 14.7
4 0.74 0.56 0.78 3.40 −0.56 9.02
5 −0.23 0.26 −0.27 −0.56 2.60 17.68
Solution procedure to find the two funds in the minimum variance
set:
vi1
wi1 = Pn 1
.
j=1 vj
1
After normalization, this gives the solution to wg , where λ1 =
a
and λ2 = 0.
2. Set λ1 = 0 and λ2 = 1; solve the system of equations:
5
X
σij vj2 = Ri, i = 1, 2, · · · , 5.
j=1
Ω−1 µ c
T
µd = µ wd = µT = .
b b
c b ∆
Difference in expected returns = µd − µg = − = > 0.
b a ab
c 1 ∆
Also, difference in variances = σd2 − σg2 = 2 − = 2 > 0.
b a ab
How about the covariance of portfolio returns for any two minimum
variance portfolios?
Write
u = w T R and Rv = w T R
RP u P v
where R = (R1 · · · RN )T . Recall that
Ω−11 Ω−1 µ
σgd = cov R, R
a b
T Ã !
=
Ω−1 1 Ω
Ω−1µ
a b
=
1Ω−1µ = 1 since b = 1Ω−1µ.
ab a
cov(RPu , Rv ) = (1 − u)(1 − v)σ 2 + uvσ 2 + [u(1 − v) + v(1 − u)]σ
P g d gd
(1 − u)(1 − v) uvc u + v − 2uv
= + 2 +
a b a
1 uv∆
= + 2
.
a ab
In particular,
For any Portfolio u, we can find another Portfolio v such that these
two portfolios are uncorrelated. This can be done by setting
1 uv∆
+ 2
= 0.
a ab
Inclusion of a riskfree asset
Consider a portfolio with weight α for a risk free asset and 1 − α for
a risky asset. The mean of the portfolio is
For each original portfolio formed using the N risky assets, the new
combinations with the inclusion of the risk free asset trace out the
infinite straight line originating from the risk free point and passing
through the point representing the original portfolio.
The line originating from the risk free point cannot be extended
beyond points in the original feasible region (otherwise entail bor-
rowing of the risk free asset). The new feasible region has straight
line front edges.
The new efficient set is the single straight line on the top of the
new triangular feasible region. This tangent line touches the original
feasible region at a point F , where F lies on the efficient frontier of
the original feasible set.
b
Here, Rf < .
a
One fund theorem
Any efficient portfolio (any point on the upper tangent line) can be
expressed as a combination of the risk free asset and the portfolio
(or fund) represented by F .
subject to wT µ + (1 − wT 1)r = µP .
1 T
Define L = w Ωw + λ[µP − r − (µ − r1)T w]
2
N
X
∂L
= σij wj − λ(µ − r1) = 0, i = 1, 2, · · · , N (1)
∂wi j=1
∂L
=0 giving (µ − r1)T w = µP − r. (2)
∂λ
Solving (1): w∗ = λΩ−1(µ − r1). Substituting into (2)
Recall that ar2 − 2br + c > 0 for all values of r since ∆ = ac − b2 > 0.
The minimum variance portfolios without the riskfree asset lie on
the hyperbola
2 aµ2
P − 2bµP + c .
σP =
∆
b
When r < µg = , the upper half line is a tangent to the hyperbola.
a
The tangency portfolio is the tangent point to the efficient frontier
(upper part of the hyperbolic curve) through the point (0, r).
The tangency portfolio M is represented by the point (σP,M , µMP ),
and the solution to σP,M and µM
P are obtained by solving simultane-
ously
2 aµ2
P − 2bµP + c
σP =
∆
q
µP = r + σP c − 2rb + r2a.
Once µP is obtained, we solve for λ and w∗ from
µP − r ∗ = λΩ−1(µ − r 1).
λ= and w
c − 2rb + r2a
The tangency portfolio M is shown to be
Ω−1(µ − r1) c − br c − 2rb + r2a
w∗M = , µM
P = and 2
σP,M = 2
.
b − ar b − ar (b − ar)
b
When r < , it can be shown that µM
P > r. Note that
a
µ ¶µ ¶ µ ¶
b b c − br b b − ar
µM
P − −r
= −
a a b − ar a a
c − br b2 br
= − 2+
a a a
ca − b2 ∆
= 2
= 2
> 0,
a a
M b b
so we deduce that µP > > r, where µg = . Indeed, we can
a a
b
deduce (σP,M , µM
P ) does not lie on the upper half line if r ≥ .
a
b
When r < , we have the following properties on the minimum
a
variance portfolios.
1. Efficient portfolios
b
When r = , µM
P does not exist. Recall that
a
w∗ = λΩ−1(µ − r1) so that
T
1 w = λ(1Ω−1µ − r1Ω−11) = λ(b − ra).
T
When r = b/a, 1 w = 0 as λ is finite. Any minimum variance port-
folio involves investing everything in the riskfree asset and holding
a portfolio of risky assets whose weights sum to zero.
b
When r > , only the lower half line touches the feasible region with
a
risky assets only.
Any portfolio on the upper half line involves short selling of the
tangency portfolio and investing the proceeds in the riskfree asset.
Alternative approach
vj
Finally, we normalize wj ’s by wj = Pn , j = 1, · · · , n.
j=1 vk
Example (5 risky assets and one risk free asset)
Data of the 5 risky assets are given in the earlier example, and
rf = 10%.
2 subject to
Optimization problem: max 2τ µP − σP 1 · w = 1.
w∈RN
Remark
w= τ Ω−1µ+
1−τ 1 Ω−1µ −1
Ω 1 = τ Ω−1µ −
1 Ω−1µ Ω−11+w .
T T −1 g
1 Ω−11 1 Ω 1
We obtain
T −1
∗ −1 1
z =Ω µ− T
Ω µ −1 T
Ω 1 and 1 z ∗ = 0.
1 Ω−11
Observe that cov(Rwg , Rz∗) = z ∗T Ωwg = 0.
Financial interpretation
Efficient frontier
Consider
µP = µT (wg + τ z ∗) = µg + τ µP,z ∗
2 = σ 2 + 2τ cov(R
σP , R ) + τ 2σ 2 .
g |
w g z
{z
∗
} z∗
z ∗T Ωwg =0
à !2
2 2 µP − µg 2 . Hence, the frontier is
By eliminating τ, σP = σg + σz ∗
µP,z ∗
2 )-diagram and hyperbolic in the (µ , σ )-
parabolic in the (µP , σP P P
diagram.
Inclusion of riskfree asset (deterministic rate of return R0 = r)
N
X
Let w = (w0 · · · wN )T and wi = 1.
i=0
2τ r + λ = 0 (i)
2τ µ c∗ + λ1 = 0
b − 2Ωw (ii)
N
X
wi∗ = 1 (iii)
i=0
Estimation of risk tolerance (inverse problem)
c
With w0 = 1 − 1 · w
c, we obtain the objective function
c
F (w b − r 1)T w
c) = 2τ [r + (µ cT Ωw
c] − w c
c
b − r 1) − 2Ωw
∇F = 2τ (µ c
so that
w∗ = wg + τ z ∗
where wg is the portfolio weight of the global minimum variance
portfolio and the weights in z ∗ are summed to zero.
3. The additional variance above σg2 is given by
τ 2σz
2 .
∗
Market value can hardly be determined since liabilities are not readily
marketable. Assume that some specific accounting rules are used to
calculate an initial value L0. If the same rule is applied one period
later, a value L1 results.
L1 − L0
Growth rate of the liabilities = RL = , where RL is expected
L0
to depend on the changes of interest rate structure, mortality and
other stochastic factors. Let A0 be the initial value of assets. The
investment strategy of the pension fund is given by the portfolio
choice w.
Surplus optimization
Maximization formulation:-
( " # Ã !)
1 1
max 2τ E Rw − RL − var Rw − RL
w ∈ RN f0 f0
N
X 1
subject to wi = 1. Note that RL and var(RL) are independent
i=1 f0
of w so that they do not enter into the objective function.
( )
2
max 2τ E[Rw ] − var(Rw ) + cov(Rw , RL)
w ∈ RN f0
N
X
subject to wi = 1. Recall that
i=1
N
X N
X
cov(Rw , RL) = cov wiRi, RL = wicov(Ri, RL).
i=1 i=1
1
where γ T = (γ1 · · · γN ) with γi = cov(Ri, RL),
f0
Quadratic utility
b 2
The quadratic utility function can be defined as U (x) = ax − x ,
2
where a > 0 and b > 0. This utility function is really meaningful
only in the range x ≤ a/b, for it is in this range that the function is
increasing. Note also that for b > 0 the function is strictly concave
everywhere and thus exhibits risk aversion.
mean-variance analysis ⇔ maximum expected utility criterion
based on quadratic utility
The optimal portfolio is the one that maximizes this value with
respect to all feasible choices of the random wealth variable y.
Normal Returns
Consider a financial market with the riskfree asset and several risky
assets, suppose the utility function satisfies
u0(z)
− 00 = a + bz, valid for all z,
u (z)
then the optimal portfolio at different wealth levels is given by the
combination of the riskfree asset and market fund consisting of the
risky assets. The relative proportions of risky assets in the market
fund remain the same, irrespective of W0.
Remark
Assume that
a∗j (W0) = αj (W0)(a + bRW0)
where αj (W0), j = 1, · · · , n, is a differentiable function.
For any value of W0, from the optimality property of a∗j (W0), we
deduce that
f )]
∂E[u(W 1
∂ak
N
X
0 e − R)
e − R)α (W )(a + bRW ) (R
= E u RW0 + (Rj j 0 0 k = 0,
j=1
| {z }
f1
W
(1)
k = 1, 2, · · · , N.
Next, we differentiate eq (1) with respect to W0. First, we observe
that
f N
X
dW 1 e − R)α (W )b
= R 1 + (R j j 0
dW0 j=1
N dα (W )
X j 0 e − R)(a + bRW ).
+ (Rj 0
j=1 dW 0
E[u0(W
f )(R
1
e − R)] = 0
k k = 1, 2, · · · , N.
Combining eqs (1) and (4), and knowing that the column vector on
the right hand side of eq (2) is a zero vector, we deduce that
dαj
(W0) = 0, j = 1, 2, · · · , n,
dW0
provided that the matrix in eq (2) is non-singular. We then have
Relating u00(W
f ) with u0(W
1
f ) using eq (3), we obtain
1
h ³ Pn ´i
RE u0 (W
f )R
1
e
1 + j=1(Rj − R)αj b R
V 00(W 0) = − =− V 0(W0).
a + bRW0 a + bRW0
Combining the results
V 0(W0) a
− 00 = + bW0.
V (W0) R
Formulation for finding the optimal portfolio
Let α be the weight of the riskfree asset so that the wealth invested in risky
assets is W0 (1 − α). Let bj be the weight of risky asset j within W0(1 − α) so that
Xn
bj = 1. The random wealth W f at the end of the investment period is
j=1
f )]
max E[u(W
{α,bj }
where
n
X
f
W = W0 α(1 + rf ) + W0 (1 − α)bj (1 + rej )
j=1
n
X
= W0 1 + αrf + (1 − α) bj rej
j=1
subject to
n
X
bj = 1.
j=1
Lagrangian formulation
n
X
f )] + λ 1 −
max E[u(W bj .
{α,bj ,λ} j=1
First order conditions give
n
X
E u0(W
f )W r −
0 f bj rej = 0 (1)
j=1
h i
E 0 f
u (W )W0(1 − α)rej = λ, j = 1, 2, · · · , n, (2)
n
X
bj = 1. (3)
j=1
n
X
From eq. (1), E[u0(W
f )r ]
f = E u0(W
f) bj rej ,
j=1
E[u0(W
f )(re − r )] = 0
j f
or equivalently,
n
X
E u0 W0 1 + rf + (1 − α) b`(re` − rf ) (rej − rf ) = 0,
`=1
j = 1, 2, · · · , n. (4)
Exponential utility