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Female Infant Mortality Disadvantage in India: A Regional Analysis

Article  in  Review of Radical Political Economics · September 2012

DOI: 10.1177/0486613412446044

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Female Infant Mortality Disadvantage in India: A Regional Analysis

Sanjukta Chaudhuri

Dept. of Economics

University of Wisconsin – Eau Claire

SSS 468, Economics Dept.

University of Wisconsin – Eau Claire

WI 54702

chaudhs@uwec.edu

715-836-3527
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Abstract

Son preference in India manifests into extreme forms of daughter avoidance either through pre-
natal sex selective abortion or post-natal neglect of infant daughters. These victims who died due
to daughter aversion are India’s “missing girls.” This paper proposes and demonstrates a novel
methodology for estimating India’s missing girls. Results are based on state level analysis of
trends in the number, incidence and source of missing girls between the pre-natal stage and age
one for a sixty year time period (1950-2010.) Main findings are: (a) A total of 58.29m girls went
missing in India between years 1950 and 2010. The number of missing girls increased between
1950 and 1979, but declined between 1980 and 2010. (b) This decline has been driven by a
decline in the number of post-natal mortalities. The number of sex selective abortions however
has increased. As a result, the contribution of pre-natal sex selective abortion increased from
24% between 1950 and 1979 to almost 40% between 2000 and 2010. (c) The incidence of
missing girls for every hundred girls born has declined from twelve to around nine. (d)
Pronounced increasing trends in the incidence of sex selective abortions was found in the
northern and southern regions.

JEL codes: J11; J13; J16.

Keywords: India; son preference; daughter aversion; female infant mortality disadvantage;
regional gap; missing girls; sex selective abortion; pre-natal sex selective abortion; post-natal
discrimination; infant mortality.
Biographical notes: Sanjukta Chaudhuri holds a PhD in economics from the City University of New
York. She is an Assistant Professor of Economics at University of Wisconsin – Eau Claire. Her research
specialization is economics of gender inequality, including theory of feminist economics, gender gap in
infant and child mortality, women’s empowerment, and gender issues in South Asia. In a recently
published paper, Chaudhuri studies the determinants of female infant mortality disadvantage in India. In
her other recent works, she has examined correlates of marital violence in Bangladesh, women’s AIDS
awareness in Bangladesh, correlates of fertility in India, and excess female infant mortality in India.
 3

1. Introduction

Sons are considered more valuable offspring than daughters in India. (Das Gupta 1987; Jayaraj

2009; Kishor 1993; Mishra et al. 2004; Murthi et al. 1995; Oster 2009.) This is variously known

as son-bias or “son preference.” Considered a manifestation of deep-rooted conviction in the

ideologies of the patriarchal family system that advocates male superiority and female

subordination, this belief is transmitted through a schema of gender ranking of children, whereby

sons (males) are ranked above daughters (females.) The birth of a son is rejoiced because it is

associated with prestige, stature, privilege, and power. The birth of a daughter in contrast, is met

with less enthusiasm and even lamented because a daughter is a low ranked member of the

household and is perceived as lesser than a son.

An alarming aspect of son preference in India is that it can manifest into daughter

aversion. In its most extreme form, parents exercise their aversion before, at or after birth of a

daughter. Parents can use two mechanisms: (a) pre-natal sex selective abortion consisting of the

use of ultrasound technology to determine the sex of the fetus and then aborting the fetus if it is

found to be a female or (b) deliberate post-natal discrimination or sheer neglect of infant

daughters in providing childhood essential investment that can prove fatal. These victims of

selective discrimination, neglect and elimination due to daughter aversion have come to be

known variously as India’s “missing girls”, “missing daughters”, “missing females”, and “girl

deficit.”

Much research has been devoted towards creating national level estimates of the number

of missing girls, with focus on refining methods in order to improve accuracy of projections.

This paper proposes and demonstrates a novel methodology for estimating India’s missing girls.

The focus is on estimating the mortality rates of girl children that would have prevailed in an
 4

ideal environment characterized by absence of gender bias and son preference (“ideal” or

“benchmark” mortality rates.) This study hypothesizes that the benchmark mortality rates are

uneven amongst Indian states and depend on state specific factors including economic

development and cultural traits. In addition, the benchmarks can vary over time. The results of

this study are based on a detailed state level analysis of trends in the number, incidence and

source of missing girls between the pre-natal stage and by age one. The data comes from birth

and mortality records of 627,547 births of thirteen Indian states from three waves of the National

Family Health Survey (NFHS-1992-93, 1998-99, 2005-06.) Benchmarks were estimated by

employing a multivariate regression estimation strategy that included as controls, state fixed

effects, decade of birth (1950-79, 1980-1989, 1990-1999, 2000-2010), and various socio-

economic variables. Results were then used to predict benchmark mortality rates for thirteen

states by four decades. These were compared to the observed mortality rates to calculate the

incidence of missing girls. Data on annual number of live female births from the decennial

census data together with the incidences were used to estimate the number of missing girls that

occurred in India over a sixty year time period: 1950 - 2010.

The aggregated results for the thirteen states show that a total of 58.29m girls went

missing by age one in India between 1950 and 2010. Of these, 28% (16.11m) were due to pre-

natal sex selective abortion, and 72% (42.18m) due to post-natal discrimination. The decade wise

contribution to missing girls demonstrates that the number of missing girls increased between

1950 and 1979, and declined between 1980-2010. Although post-natal neglect has contributed

the majority proportion of missing girls, the contribution by pre-natal sex selective abortion has

increased. During 1950-1979, more than 76% of missing girls by age one were contributed by
 5

post-natal excess female mortality and 24% were contributed by pre-natal sex selective abortion.

In contrast, during the 2000s, the contribution by the pre-natal stage increased to almost 40%.

Results on the incidence of missing girls i.e. the probability that a girl child will go missing by

age-1 due to daughter aversion shows that the between 1950 and 2010, around ten girls have

gone missing for every 100 girls born. Of these ten, 7.7 girls went missing due to post-natal

neglect, and 2.81 went missing due to pre-natal sex selective abortion. The incidence of missing

girls was more than 12 per 100 female births during 1950s (due to either pre-natal or post-natal

causes) but has reduced to around 9.12 in the decade of 2000s. The problem of missing girls is

by no means over. As recent as the first decade of the 21st century, more than nine girls went

missing for every 100 girls born, which translates to 8m missing girls between 2000 and 2010.

The rest of the paper is organized as follows: section two introduces the literature, section

three describes the empirical estimation strategy, section four presents results, and section five

discusses the results.

2. Literature review

Patriarchal family customs

The family system in India is strongly patriarchal. Customs associated with birth, marriage,

death, and lineage are designed to give prime importance to male members. While men hold

superior positions in the family, women are relegated to subordinate status and are relevant only

so far as they serve the purposes of the male members. Patriarchy is manifested through various

customs that ensure the central importance of sons and subordination of daughters (Bhaskar and

Gupta 2007; Dyson and Moore 1983.) One only has to allude to a few customs to make the point.
 6

Due to a patrilineal system, property and descent is passed on through male members.

Hence women are important only as far as they give birth to sons, so that the family (male)

lineage can be continued. While a son has the privilege of property and descent, the position of

the daughter is dubious. Not only is she excluded from lineage, but a patrilocal marriage system

implies that she is a temporary member in her parental household. She “belongs” to her future

husband into whose household she will move after marriage, and where her chief task will be to

produce sons who will carry on the male lineage of her husband’s family.

Patriarchal marriage customs reinforces son preference. One such custom is the

“kanyadaan” which in English means “giving away (“daan”) of the daughter (“kanya”).

kanyadaan requires that the bride’s parents be “grateful” while giving their daughter away,

because the burden of the daughter is finally raised from their shoulders by the groom’s family.

In return, they must lavish dowry gifts on the groom’s family. In many cases, the unilateral flow

of gifts develops a recurrent pattern. During the marriage of sons, the flow of gifts is now in the

reverse direction.

An example of patriarchal custom related to death is the ritual of “mukhagni”, which in

English means “lighting of funeral pyre.” This ritual is based on the belief that one can gain

“moksha” or liberation from the cycle of rebirth if their funeral pyre lit only by the male

offspring. This custom reinforces son preference because apparently, one must have at least one

son in order to “qualify” for “moksha.” As a result, daughters are denied the right to light the

funeral pyre under any circumstance. Even if there is no son, the honor of performing last rites

are bestowed on a male relative rather than one’s own daughter.

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Missing girls

In the backdrop of a deeply ingrained patriarchal culture that welcomes the birth of a son

and mourns the birth of a daughter, parents exercise daughter aversion with the objective of

ensuring a lower chance of survival past infancy. Consequently, female children suffer from

serious mortality disadvantage that starts at the fetal stage, as soon as child sex can be

determined, and continues till the end of childhood. Son preference has resulted in a serious

population imbalance in India, characterized by a shortage of girls, excess number of boys, and

an abnormally masculine population sex ratio (number of males per 100 females.) The 2001

census of India reported that the 0-7 years sex ratio in India was 107.84 (Arnold et al. 2002). The

biological sex ratio that would prevail in the absence of son preference ranges between 103 and

105 (Clark 2000.)

There are two sources of mortality disadvantage of the girl child that are attributable to

son preference and daughter aversion. The first source is pre-natal sex selection and abortion of

female fetuses. Abortion was legalized in India in 1971in all states except Jammu and Kashmir

through the passage of the Medical Termination of Pregnancy (MTP) Act by the parliament of

India. This law legalized abortion under conditions of health risk factors, contraceptive failure or

if pregnancy resulted from rape. Legal abortion would normally be hailed as a landmark

achievement in progressing women’s empowerment. By 1983 however, just twelve years after

abortion was legalized in India, provisions of the MTP Act had been “misused” to abort

approximately 13,000 female fetuses every year (Ahmad 2010.) Since the 1970s, the advent of

medical abortion technology has allowed parents to abort unwanted female fetuses.

Pre-natal sex selection contributes to the population sex ratio imbalance by distorting the

population sex ratio at birth (SRB), defined as the number of male children born for every 100
 8

female children born. Most recent estimates of India’s missing girls have focused on the annual

number of missing girls due to sex selective abortion. The estimate range is as follows - 74,600

annual sex selective abortion of female fetuses (Sudha and Rajan 1999), 0.10m (Arnold et al.

2002), 0.14m (Chaudhuri 2011), 0.20m (Mishra et al. 1998), 0.37 (Bhaskar and Gupta 2007),

0.45 – 0.54m (Jha et al. 2006) and 1.12m (Seth 2007.)

The second source is post-natal discrimination and neglect in providing basic childhood

investment to infant daughters. Post-natal discrimination distorts the population sex ratio by

increasing the sex ratio of the infant mortality rate (IMR) (ratio of female IMR to male IMR).

Resulting “excess female infant mortality,” occurs when the observed female IMR is excessive

compared to observed male IMR, and is attributed to early childhood neglect or discrimination

against daughters. Childhood discrimination can take the form of vaccination gaps

(Perianayagam 2004; Oster 2009,) lack of breast feeding and early weaning (Jayachandran and

Kuziemko 2010,) lack of care of daughters when they consume contaminated post weaning food

(Bhattacharya 2006,) lower quantity of nutritious food such as milk, fat and cereals, sugars,

clothing and medical expenses (Das Gupta 1987,) malnutrition, and lack of illness treatment

(D’Souza and Chen 1980.) Recent estimate of the annual number of excess female deaths by age

one due to post-natal discrimination is 0.24m (Chaudhuri 2011.) The two sources together have

led to millions of deaths of unwanted female children - the “missing girls” of India.

While Visaria (1961) had indirectly alluded to the missing girls by raising the issue of

abnormally high masculine sex ratios in 1961, Sen’s contribution to this issue since 1982 has led

to the creation of a vast literature on missing girls in India (Sen 1983, 1984, 1989; 1990a, 1990b;

Dreze and Sen 1989, 1995; Sen and Sengupta 1983; Kynch and Sen 1983.)The term “missing

women” was developed by Sen to describe missing females of any age, rather than childhood
 9

only (Sen 1990.) The term “missing girls” was coined specifically to refer to female mortality

disadvantage before birth, and after birth during infancy and childhood. Much research has been

devoted towards India’s missing girls, especially since it has been demonstrated that as much as

80% of India’s missing females could be explained by female mortality disadvantage during the

most vulnerable period of human life – childhood (Agnihotri et. al 2002; Oster 2009.)

The demographic and social price of son preference and daughter aversion

Estimation of missing girls has demonstrated the enormous cumulative effect of daughter

aversion on mortality disadvantage. Miller (1981) coined the phrase “endangered sex” to

describe the problem of missing girls in India. The shockingly high figure of missing girls has

even prompted the use of the phrase “gendercide” or female genocide (Ahmad 2010.) The excess

masculinity of the population is already beginning to show social stresses in India. These include

more aggression and violence, including violence against women, and high rates of murder

(Dreze and Khera 2000; Oldenburg 1992; Miller 2001.) Ahmad (2010) draws attention to the

social problem of marriage squeeze and continued devaluation of women in a patriarchal society

despite more masculine sex ratio. This includes trafficking of brides from states with balanced

population into more masculine states.

Regional gap in missing girls – The role of culture, economics and politics

While national level studies reveal the serious nature of the problem, wide regional gaps exist in

the prevalence of missing girls, with the problem being most serious in the northern region, and

gradually diminishing as one moves towards the southern region. The northern region consists of

states such as Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan. According to the Census of India 2011, the
 10

juvenile sex ratio in the northern region states of Punjab and Haryana was excessively masculine.

The 2011 census reported that the 0-6 years sex ratio in India was 109 males for every 100

females. The 0-6 years sex ratio in Punjab was 118 male for every 100 females. The sex ratio in

Haryana was 120, and 113 in Rajasthan.

The north is followed by the central, western and central-eastern region that also exhibit

excessive masculinity, although to a lesser extent. The central region consists of Uttar Pradesh

(juvenile sex ratio = 111) and Madhya Pradesh (juvenile sex ratio = 110.) Excess masculinity in

the juvenile sex ratio is also found in the western region consisting of Maharashtra and Gujarat.

In contrast, the problem of missing girls is relatively less pressing in the states of eastern and

southern region that incidentally also have more balanced juvenile sex ratios. For example, the 0-

6 year sex ratio of west Bengal (east) is around 105 and that of Kerala (south) is 104.

Interestingly, this regional pattern of juvenile sex ratio and missing girls also coincides

with a regional variation in the degree of patriarchy. The north and central regions exhibit higher

degree of patriarchy and greater devaluation of women. The southern region in contrast is

relatively more egalitarian. The west and eastern regions fall in between the two extremes. In

examining the specific reasons for the regional gap in excess masculine sex ratios and missing

girls, three arguments have been forwarded. First, authors such as Dyson and Moore (1983)

focus on the cultural causes of this contrast. While the north is patrilineal, patrilocal, the south is

relatively matrilineal. As a result, daughters are valued more in the south than the north.

Second, authors such as Rosenzweig and Schultz (1982) focus on the economic reasons,

arguing that child survival depends on the labor market earnings prospects of children. Similarly,

Rahman and Rao (2004) contend that the mode of production tends to be more labor intensive in

southern India that specialize in rice cultivation. This enables higher economic participation by
 11

women in the farms. The north on the other hand has a more capital intensive mode of farm

production that creates barriers to women’s economic contribution. A related economic argument

is that parents view daughters as more expensive in northern India due to the widespread practice

of dowry.

The third argument is political, forwarded by Sen (2003) who suggests the possible nexus

between patriarchal forces and political parties that cater to patriarchal ideologies, and as a result

do very little to actually stop the outrageous violation of human rights. Incidentally, during the

general elections of 1999, more than 85% members of parliament who were elected from the

Hindu right wing party (The Bharatiya Janta Party – BJP) were from the regions of north and

west where missing girls is most serious an issue. In contrast, the ruling political party in the

more balanced states of West Bengal and Kerala is the west wing party - the Communist Party of

India1 (CPI.) Sen (2003) reflects on this phenomenon: “Are there differences in traditional

cultural values that are hidden away? Is there any cultural or deep political significance in the

fact that religion based parties have been able to make much bigger inroads precisely in the north

and the west and not in the east and the south?” (Sen 2003: 1298.)

Estimation challenges

The key methodological step in estimating the number of missing girls is the selection of a

suitable benchmark environment that has no evidence of son preference or daughter aversion.

This benchmark provides the SRB which when applied to India’s female infant population would

give the number of girls at birth if parents did not practice daughter aversion. Similarly the IMRs

provided by the benchmark when applied to India’s female population would provide the number

1
The CPI Party governed West Bengal until the last state assembly elections of 2011, in which it was decisively
defeated.
 12

of female deaths that should have occurred if no daughter aversion was practiced. The missing

girls are then estimated by subtracting the observed female population from the expected female

population. Since the estimated number of missing girls can fluctuate widely depending on the

choice of the benchmark, its selection is imperative. A key estimation hurdle however arises in

ascertaining the specific benchmark by locating another population that is similar to India along

all other demographic and socio-economic indicators, and yet represents a low discrimination

environment for female children.

Search for the benchmark SRB

In calculating the number of missing girls that arise due to pre-natal sex selective abortion of

female fetuses, the observed SRB needs to be compared to the benchmark SRB. In determining

the benchmark SRB, one class of studies assumes that developed countries of Europe or North

America are the models of low discrimination environment and hence their SRBs are suitable

benchmarks. In addition, these studies usually assume that the benchmark SRB is constant,

exogenous, and time-invariant. In the Indian context, this benchmark SRB varies between 103-

105 males for every 100 females (Arnold et. al 2002; Jayaraj 2009.) In justifying the benchmark

SRB of 105, Jha et al. (2002) argue that any SRB greater than 105 in 10,000 or more births is

indicative of pre-natal abortion of female fetuses. In a typical application of the time-invariant

benchmark SRB, (Bhaskar and Gupta 2007) demonstrate based on the assumptions of 20m

annual births in India during the 2001 census, an observed SRB of 1.10, and an ideal SRB of

1.059 that 0.37m sex selective abortion of female fetuses are performed annually in India.

The assumption of a constant, time-invariant SRB however has been criticized by Klasen

(1994), Klasen and Wink (2002; 2003) and Jayaraj and Subramaniam (2004) who caution that
 13

for various reasons, the benchmark SRB can in fact differ across population, within populations,

and across time in a population. Using a constant SRB as the benchmark suffers from over-

simplification and ignores the possibility that the benchmark in itself may depend on factors that

change over time. This can result in misleading estimates of missing girls. The main argument is

that a country’s economic development over time is associated with increase of the biological

SRB due to improved health status of the population. Given that male fetuses are biologically

proven to be more susceptible to birth related trauma, stillbirths and miscarriages, the

improvement of health care systems and pre-natal care will reduce the number of male fetal

wastage, and hence increase the SRB.

To address the issue of variability of the benchmark SRB due to its association with

economic development, Klasen (1994) fitted a linear relationship between a country’s life

expectancy at birth (LEB) and SRB. This linear relationship was then applied to find the

benchmark SRB at the prevailing LEB. Klasen demonstrates that every 13 year increase in LEB

is associated with one percentage point increase in the benchmark SRB. Using the same

technique, Klasen and Wink (2003) shows that every ten years of greater LEB increases the

benchmark SRB by about 0.8 percentage point.

A related argument on the link between economic development, health care and

benchmark SRB is put forward by Oster (2009) who claims that the ideal SRB can vary depend

on maternal health, as measured by contraction rate of Hepatitis – B. Hence, to the extent that

disease prevalence influences the benchmark SRB, the decline in infectious disease rate due to

better health care systems will alter the benchmark SRB.

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Search for the benchmark female IMR

In calculating the number of missing girls that arise due to post-natal discrimination, one has to

compare the observed sex ratio of IMR with a suitable benchmark sex ratio of IMR. The extent

to which the observed ratio exceeds the benchmark provides estimates of the “excess” female

infant mortality due to gender bias.

Challenges also arise in establishing the benchmark female IMR. One class of studies

make the simplified assumption that the ideal sex ratio of IMR is a constant. Dasgupta (1987)

and Sudha and Rajan (1999) assume that in the absence of son preference, the male and female

IMR should be the same and hence the benchmark sex ratio of IMR should be one. However,

given that male infants are likely to face a higher mortality probability than female infants (Hill

& Upchurch 1995; Oster 2009) this method would lead to an under estimation of excess female

mortality. Hence, a second benchmark in the literature assumes that the ratio of IMR is less than

one (Goodkind 1995 assumes that this ratio should be 0.909). A third method is to use countries

of Sub-Saharan Africa as benchmark (Sen 1992; Oster 2009) to compare female IMR in India

with these countries that have been known to have low levels of discrimination. Oster (2009)

uses six countries of Sub-Saharan Africa as the benchmark in order to estimate the excess

mortality faced by a girl who is born in India. A fourth method of benchmarking is to apply

demographers’ life tables, such as the Coale & Demeny Regional Model Life Tables (Coale and

Demeny 1983) to compare the observed male and female IMR of India with the IMRs that would

prevail in countries with similar life expectancy at birth and gross reproduction rate, but with

historically low levels of discrimination (Coale 1991; Jayraj 2009; Klasen and Wink, 2002;

Klasen and Wink 2003.)

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Current study

In the backdrop of the problem of India’s missing girls, the need for accurate estimates, and the

persistent estimation issue faced in ascertaining suitable bias-free benchmarks of comparison,

this paper proposes and demonstrates a novel methodology for estimating India’s missing girls.

In doing so, this study makes four methodological contributions. First, most existing estimates of

missing girls were performed at the national level. The problem with national level estimates is

that they wash out underlying regional patterns as evidenced by wide variations in the number,

percentage, as well as source of missing girls. Overlooking these regional patterns result in

drawing generalized conclusions about missing girls. Resulting policy prescriptions are also

generalized, and do not address regional differences in the kinds of mortality risk faced by

female children and hence fail to address the need for targeted, customized policies to address

the problem. The results of this study are based on a detailed state level analysis of trends in the

number, percentage and source of missing girls between pre-natal stage and age one. The data

for this study comes from birth and mortality records of 627,547 births of thirteen states across

five regions of India from three waves of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-1992-93,

1998-99, 2005-06.) Findings demonstrate large regional gaps in incidence and source of missing

girls. Based on regional findings, state-by-state customized policy interventions are prescribed in

the discussion section to target the specific dimension of the missing girls problem that persists

in each state.

A second contribution of this study is that it unlike existing studies that invariably

compare female mortality levels in India with another country or continent, this study employs

the SRB and sex ratio of IMR of the southern state of Kerala in order to determine bias-free

benchmarks for comparison. Kerala is a state that is recognized as the most gender egalitarian
 16

state of India, as evidenced by various indicators of women’s status. Aside from being bias free,

an additional advantage of Kerala is that it offers a benchmark within India, rather than distant

countries of Western Europe or Sub-Saharan Africa. Another advantage is that since this study

performs a state-level analysis of missing girls, the use of Kerala rather than a country as the

benchmark offers an appropriate geographic unit of comparison that is more conducive for state-

to-state comparison. Benchmarks set on the basis of countries do not have the advantage of state

level application.

A third contribution is that similar to Klasen (1994) and Klasen and Wink (2003), this

paper hypothesizes that the benchmark SRB and F/M IMR vary across states within India and

also vary across time within states. This is based on the rationale that large gaps exist amongst

these states along various indicators of economic development and health status – state GDP, per

capita income, overall mortality levels, and LEB. These indicators also change over time within

a state. To the extent that these variables influence the benchmarks, the benchmarks themselves

vary across states and shift over time within states. Hence benchmarks that are adjusted for these

sources of variability into account will improve estimation accuracy. This paper uses a

multivariate estimation strategy that incorporates state fixed effects, decade of birth (1950-79,

1980-1989, 1990-1999, 2000-2010), and various socio-economic variables as controls. This

estimation strategy yielded benchmarks for both SRB and sex ratio of IMR that were adjusted for

unevenness of economic development, overall mortality levels and cultural differences. The

benchmarks for each of the thirteen states by four decades together with observed SRB and IMR

were then applied to annual live female births from the decennial census data to estimate the

number of missing girls for female births that occurred in each state from pre-natal and post-

natal source between 1950 and 2010. Resulting estimates are presented by decade and by source
 17

of missing girls. This enables trend analysis in the number, incidence and share of source of

missing girls.

A related fourth contribution of this study is that while most studies take a “stock

approach” and estimate the number of missing girls at a particular point of time (Coale 1991;

Klasen 1994; Klasen and Wink 2002; 2003,) this study takes a flow approach and studies the

trends in missing girls over a sixty year time period.

3. Empirical Estimation

Data description

The birth recode of the NFHS is especially suitable for the purposes of this study because

it is the only large household level survey in India that has birth and death records of children

born to women ages 15-49 years. The following variables were of primary interest – sex of child,

birth location (state), year of birth, and age of death. In addition, the NFHS also contains detailed

socio-economic information on the parents of each child. These include mother and father’s

education, rural/urban location, religion, and caste or tribe membership. Table 1 shows the

distribution of births, decade of birth, as well as SRB and IMRs across the three surveys. The

analysis is restricted to thirteen states of India that together contribute 85% of the country’s

population. The states included in the study are: Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan (North), Uttar

Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh (Central), Maharashtra and Gujarat (West), West Bengal, Bihar

and Orissa (East), Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu (South). Kerala (South) serves as

the benchmark. The following are the definitions of key terms used in the remainder of the paper.
 18

Sources of missing girls: (a) Pre-natal sex selective abortion that creates daughter deficit at birth,

as measured by the SRB. (b) Post-natal discrimination and neglect that creates daughter deficit

between birth and age one, as measured by the female age-1 IMR.

Number of missing girls: The number of girl children who have died between pre-natal stage and

age one because they were victims of daughter aversion.

Incidence of missing girls due to pre-natal source: The number of girls who are selectively

aborted for every 100 girls born.

Incidence of missing girls due to post-natal source: The number of girls who die of childhood

deprivation by age one for every 100 girls born.

Benchmark region: This is the bias-free, gender egalitarian region in India where son preference

and daughter aversion are either non-existent or low compared to other parts of the country.

Kerala is the benchmark region.

Benchmark SRB: The (ideal) SRB that would prevail in the egalitarian comparison state of

Kerala after controlling for developmental and cultural differences between Kerala and any other

state.

Benchmark female IMR: The female age-1 IMR that would prevail in Kerala after controlling for

developmental and cultural differences between Kerala and any other state.

Justifying Kerala as the suitable benchmark

Kerala is considered by many authors to be the most gender egalitarian state of India (Rahman

and Rao 2004; Dyson and Moore 1983; Rajan et. al 2000; Sudha and Rajan 1999.) Along several

indicators of women’s status, Kerala is an exemplary state in India. In 2005-2006, the female

literacy rate in India is 65%, and the highest female literacy rate was in Kerala (94% - NFHS-3.)
 19

Overall for India, 53% of women attain at least secondary education, while 85% of women in

Kerala attain at least secondary education. The average number of total children ever born in

India is 2.06 and 1.55 children in Kerala. The rate of marital violence is 33% in India and 15% in

Kerala. The ideal SRB is 105 in India and 100 in Kerala. A comparison of sex ratio of IMR

across the three waves of NFHS (1992-93, 1998-99, 2005-06) shows that for India overall, the

sex ratio of IMR was 1.024 in 1992-93. This reduced to 1.016 in 1998-99, and further dropped to

0.962 in 2005-2006. In contrast, Kerala had the lowest sex ratio of IMR in all three surveys, with

the sex ratio always below one, and ranging between 0.70 and 0.80. Given Kerala’s special status

as a gender egalitarian state, this study employs Kerala as the benchmark region of low

discrimination.

Estimation strategy

The primary estimation objective was to estimate the benchmarks for SRB and female

IMR for thirteen Indian states by employing the state of Kerala was the benchmark region.

Kerala needs to satisfy two conditions: (a) it must be a low discrimination state in India and (b) it

must be similar in other aspects with the specific state S for which missing girls are being

calculated. Based on indicators and previous research outlined above, Kerala is assumed to

satisfy the first condition. Satisfying the second condition entails estimating the SRB and IMR

that would prevail in Kerala if Kerala was similar to state S in terms of state specific conditions

of economic development, overall mortality levels, and cultural traits, where S = 1,2,…13 is one

of the thirteen states being examined.

The strategy consisted of first pooling data on each state S and Kerala resulting in a total

of thirteen pooled datasets. The estimation strategy should yield the SRB and age-1 female IMR
 20

that would have prevailed in the bias-free state of Kerala if Kerala was exactly similar to a biased

state along other indicators of economic development and cultural traits. In addition, the

variation in the benchmarks due to economic development over time must also be controlled.

Dependent variables and controls

The first dependent variable that measures SRB is a binary indicator variable on whether a live

birth was a girl. The second dependent variable measures female IMR and is a binary indicator

variable on whether a child died by age twelve months. Thirteen multivariate logistic regressions

were performed on each dependent variable with the pooled datasets for a total of twenty six

regressions. Explanatory variables included dummy variable on Kerala, various socio-economic

controls and dummy variables on decade of birth (1950-79, 1980-1989, 1990-1999, 2000-2010.)

For the models on female IMR, a binary indicator variable on whether the child was a girl was

also included as an explanatory variable in order to demonstrate the association between girl

child and probability of dying by age-1. Formally:

P ( girl ) = α + β 1 Kerala + β 2 D80 + β 3 D90 + β 4 D2000 + β 5 controls -------------(1)

P ( Mortality ) = α + β1 girl + β 2 Kerala + β 3 ( girlXKerala ) + β 4 D80 +

+ β 5 D90 + β 6 D2000 + β 7 controls − − − − − − − − − − − − − − − −(2)

Girl = 1 if female

Mortality =1 if a child died by age 12 months

Kerala = 1 if state is Kerala

=0 if state S

D80, D90, D2000 are dummy variables on decade of birth, with D50,60,70 serving as the base

category.
 21

Controls include several measures of economic development that are set at the averages

prevailing in state S. The hypothesis is that the benchmarks should be adjusted for state-specific

socio-economic-cultural conditions such as economic development, as well religious, caste, and

cultural differences between Kerala and any other state. These included first of all, mother’s

education in years, father’s education, and whether mother is currently working. These variables

were included because of their positive correlation with economic development. Mother’s

education and work status variables are also indicative of women’s status. Another indicator of

economic development included is dummy variable on whether mother’s place of residence is an

urban location. I also included an indicator variable for whether the child’s mother belongs to

economically backward groups including scheduled caste, scheduled tribes, and other backward

classes. In addition, five dummy variables for religion are included (“Hindu,” “Muslim,” “Sikh,”

“Christian,” and “others,”) with Hindu serving as the base variable. I expect that there will be

differentials in social norms and acceptability of human intervention due to the presence of these

groups in the sample. In addition, birth order of child was included as an explanatory variable in

order to account for the correlation between fertility level and economic development. Lastly,

dummies for survey year were also included.

Estimation result: Incidence of missing girls

For regression (A), the predicted probabilities of a child being female in Kerala (Kerala

= 1) were calculated for each decade separately. All other variables were set at the sample

average of state S. These predicted probabilities of a child being female in Kerala in decade D

after controlling for all other differences between Kerala and state S are the benchmarks for the

ideal SRB. The difference between the predicted benchmark probability of a female child and the
 22

observed probabilities in state S in decade D is interpreted as the incidence of missing girls at

birth due to sex selective abortion, as follows:

Incidence of missing girls at birth

due to sex selective = Pred. P(female)Kerala, D – Obs. P(female)S, D
abortion in state S in decade D

For regression (B), the predicted probabilities that a girl child will die by age twelve months

were calculated for each decade in Kerala. The resulting probabilities of a girl child dying in

Kerala served as the benchmarks. The incidence of excess female infant mortality was then

calculated as follows:

Incidence of missing girls by age-

1 due to post-natal neglect in state = Obs. IMRS, D - Pred. IMRKerala, D
S in decade D

4. Results

The above regressions yielded a total of 104 benchmarks (2 sources X 4 decades X 13 states).

Table 2 shows the incidence of missing girls due to pre-natal source by state and decade. Table 3

shows the incidence due to post-natal source.

Regional gap in female infant mortality disadvantage

As evidenced by existing literature, incidence of pre-natal sex selective abortion is highest in the

northern region. In addition, the decade-wise results suggest that sex selective abortion is on the

rise in north, especially in Punjab. The incidence of post-natal neglect on the other hand has been

declining in the north, especially in Punjab and Haryana.

 23

Between 1980 and 1989, for every 100 girls born in Punjab, 3.17 girls were aborted. This

increased to 3.66 abortions for every 100 girls born in 1990-1999, and further to 4.39 abortions

for every 100 girls born in the 2000s.2 A similar trend is observed in Haryana, where the

incidence of selective abortion was 3.56 for births in the 1980s. This reduced slightly to 3.30 for

births in the 1990s but increased back to 3.56 for the 2000s. A similar increasing trend in

incidence is also seen in Rajasthan where the incidence of selective abortion was 1.97 for every

100 girls born in the decade of 2000s.

As for incidence of missing girls due to post-natal neglect, the incidence in Rajasthan is

more than seven girls for every 100 girls born, i.e. more than seven girls die of neglect for every

100 girls born. In Haryana, almost nine girls went missing up to 1979. This has since then

declined to around three girls. In Punjab, the incidence has been somewhere between three and

four for every 100 girls born.

Both sex selective abortion and post-natal discrimination have been declining in the

central region. In Uttar Pradesh, the incidence of abortion hovered at 1.80 for every 100 girls

between 1950 and1999, and reduced to 1.71 for births in the 2000s. In Madhya Pradesh, the

incidence has steadily declined from 1.84 during the 1980s to less than one (0.85) per 100 girls

born in the 2000s. However, Uttar Pradesh has historically exhibited very high incidence of post-

natal discrimination. Between 1950 and 1979, more than fifteen girls died of neglect for every

100 girls born. This has reduced since then to around six girls. Over the same time period, the

incidence has reduced in Madhya Pradesh from more than ten girls to around five girls for every

100 girls born.

2
The incidence of selective abortion in Punjab in the 2000s is based on less than 2000 births. This maybe a source
of inaccuracy. Given that the observed SRB in Punjab was 135 for births taking place in the 2000s, the incidence of
abortion is likely to be higher than 4.39.
 24

A mixed trend is seen in the western region. The incidence of sex selective abortion has

increased but the incidence of post-natal has declined in the state of Maharashtra. In particular,

Maharashtra had zero deficit of daughters at birth up to 1979. This increased to 0.87 in the

1980s, then to 1.22 in the 1990s, and to 1.57 in the 2000s. This means that from no deficit at

birth, Maharashtra now witnesses almost two sex selective abortions at birth. Interestingly in

Maharashtra, while the incidence of pre-natal incidence has increased from zero to 1.57, the

incidence of post-natal has declined. More than seven girls would die of neglect up to 1979. This

has reduced to less than 1.50 by 2000s. The state of Gujarat on the other hand has witnessed a

decline in both the post-natal incidence and pre-natal abortion incidence.

The trend in the eastern region is mixed. While the trend is generally towards decline in

both pre-natal and post-natal incidence in West Bengal and Bihar, the trend in Orissa shows an

increase in pre-natal and a decline in post-natal. Specifically, West Bengal shows little incidence

of sex selective abortion. The incidence was 0.35 in the 1980s, and declined to 0.25 in the 1990s,

and further to 0.12 in the 2000s. The state of Bihar also shows a declining trend in sex selective

abortion. While almost 2 abortions occurred for every 100 female births during the 1980s, this

has declined to zero incidence for births in the 2000s. On the other hand, Orissa is the only

eastern state where incidence has actually increased. In the 1980s, less than one abortion took

place for every 100 female births. This has increased to more than one (1.33) in the 2000s.

Post-natal neglect has also declined in the eastern region. In West Bengal the incidence of

missing girl by age one has declined from more than eight (8.42) to less than two (1.72) for every

100 female births. The incidence is much higher in Bihar where the incidence is more than five

girls (5.53,) although this has declined over time. A similar declining trend is seen in Orissa,
 25

where the incidence was more than eleven (11.53) up to 1979 and has declined to less than four

(3.91.)

The south shows an interesting pattern. While the incidence of pre-natal abortion has

increased over time in all three southern states, the incidence of post-natal missing girls has

declined during the same time period. None of the three southern states exhibited evidence of

appreciable selective abortion up to the end of 1980s. However, all three states have witnessed

increase in the incidence since the 1990s. In Karnataka, while pre-natal incidence has increased

from 0.59 to 1.23, the incidence of post-natal missing girls has reduced from 7.97 to 1.96. In

Andhra Pradesh, the pre-natal incidence has increased from 0.58 to 1.18, but the incidence of

post-natal has declined from 7.79 to 1.15. In Tamil Nadu, pre-natal incidence has increased from

zero to 1.87, while post-natal missing girls has reduced from 8.69 to 1.32.

National level analysis

Incidence of missing girls

Table 4 shows the overall incidence of pre-natal and post-natal sources for India. Between 1950

and 2010, around ten girls have gone missing for every 100 girls born. Of these ten, 7.7 girls

went missing due to post-natal neglect, and 2.81 went missing due to pre-natal sex selective

abortion. Overall, the incidence of missing girls from either source has declined slightly. During

1950-1979, twelve girls went missing for every 100 girls born. By the 2000s, this reduced to nine

girls for every 100 girls born. In decomposing the overall incidence into the two sources of

missing girls, table 4 shows that the majority incidence of missing girls is contributed by the

post-natal source. In 1950-79, more than nine girls went missing due to post-natal neglect for

every 100 girls born. This reduced to 6.6 for every 100 girls in the 2000s. The incidence of pre-
 26

natal source has remained steady at around 2.80 (i.e. in India, for every 100 girls born, 2.80 girls

are not born because they were selectively aborted.) with a slight decline to 2.50 in the 2000s.

Thus, the overall incidence of missing girls has reduced in India, and so has the incidence due to

the post-natal source and pre-natal sources. However, the problem of missing girls is by no

means less serious, given that even in the 2000s, more than nine girls go missing for every 100

girls.

Trends in the number of missing girls

While the incidence of missing girls shows the probability that a girl child will go missing, I

applied the incidence in tables 2 and 3 to estimate the number of missing girls by source and

decade. The process involved the use of census data on India’s population and the crude birth

rate (CBR) by decade (1951, 1961, 1971, 1981, 1991, 2001, and 2011.) The population and CBR

were used to calculate the number of live births in each decade. The decade-wise observed SRB

from table 2 were applied to calculate the number of female live births. The incidence of missing

girls by each source from tables 2 and 3 were applied to the number of female live births to

estimate the number of missing girls. Aggregated results for India is shown in table 5.

Between 1950 and 2010, a sixty year period, a total of 58.29m girls went missing by age

one. The majority of missing girls were contributed by post-natal source. 42m (72%) went

missing due to post-natal neglect. 16m (28%) went missing due to pre-natal sex selective

abortion. post-natal neglect thus is the primary source of missing girls in India. The decade wise

contribution to missing girls demonstrates that the number of missing girls increased between

1950 and 1979, but then declined between 1980 and 2010. Between 1950 and 1959, a total of 8m

girls went missing. This increased to 9.57m in 1960-1969, and further increased to 12m in 1970-
 27

1979. Thereafter it declined slightly to 11.36m in 1980-1989, further to 9m in 1990-1999.

Finally, during the first decade of the 21st century, the number of missing girls reduced further to

8.4m.

The decline in the number of missing girls has been driven by a decline in the number

due to post-natal source since 1970. Between 1960 and 1969, 7.33m girls went missing due to

post-natal source. This increased to 9.15m in 1970-1979. It reduced thereafter and during 2000-

2010 contributed around 5m missing girls.

However, since 1970, the number of sex selective abortions has increased (Note that the

MTP Act that legalized abortion was passed in 1971.) 2.85m female fetuses were selectively

aborted in 1970-1979. This increased to 3m during 1980-1989 and another 3m in 1990-1999.

This further increased to 3.24m in 2000-2010.

Contribution by source

The share of post-natal source has steadily declined over time, while the share of pre-natal source

has increased. Between 1950 and 1979, 76% of missing girls arose due to post-natal neglect

(24% due to pre-natal source.) This reduced to 73% in 1980-89 (26% due to pre-natal source,)

68% in 1990-1999 (32% due to pre-natal source.) Between 2000-2010, the share of post-natal

neglect was around 60% while the share of pre-natal selective abortion had increased to 40%.

5. Discussion

Contribution of the current study to three strands of debates surrounding India’s missing girls

The literature on missing girls has seen three debates regarding recent trends in the number and

source of missing girls. The results of this study contribute towards all three strands of debate.
 28

The first debate is whether the number of missing girls has increased or decreased. Some authors

predicted that sex ratio has improved in India (Dreze and Sen 1996; Wink 2000). Others have

predicted a worsening of India’s sex ratio (Gupta and Bhat 1997; Mayer 1999; Basu 1999; Sudha

and Rajan 1999), mainly driven by a fertility transition, high levels of son preference, renewed

spur in female infanticide, and advent of sex selective abortion. In addressing the first debate,

this study demonstrates (a) the incidence of missing girls is on the decline (b) there is a declining

trend in the total number of missing girls, especially since 1980. However, the overall decline is

due to decline in the post-natal source of missing girls. The number of sex selective abortions has

increased.

The second debate surrounds whether the two sources of female mortality disadvantage

are substitutes or complements. Authors such as Sen (1990, 1992) have expressed concern that

the spread of pre-natal sex selection will be increasingly used as a new form of discrimination

against the girl child. As Sen (2003: 1297) contends: “There have been two opposite movements:

female disadvantage in mortality has typically been reduced substantially, but this has been

counterbalanced by a new female disadvantage - that in natality - through sex specific abortions

aimed against the female fetus.” Sen’s contention is that pre-natal sex selection will replace post-

natal discrimination. On the other hand, in a comparative study of the 1981 and 1991 Indian

census, Gupta and Bhat (1997) argue that fertility decline and higher SRB have occurred with an

accompanying increase in excess female infant mortality. They conclude that both pre-natal and

post-natal discrimination have been on the rise. Similar findings are reported by Sudha and Rajan

(1999) who refer to the increased female disadvantage in pre-natal and post-natal survival as a

“double jeopardy” for girls.

 29

In addressing the second debate, the findings of this study supports Sen’s hypothesis by

demonstrating that there has been a decline in the number as well as share of the post-natal

source. Simultaneously, there has been an increase in the number as well as share of the pre-natal

source. In particular, results show that while the overall contribution of the pre-natal source for

the sixty year period was 28%, this share has increased since the advent of medical abortion

technology since the passing of the MTP Act in 1971. From a contribution of less than 24% until

1979, the contribution of pre-natal sex selective abortion has increased to almost 40% during

2000-2010. The share of post-natal source has simultaneously reduced from more than 76% to

around 60%. This finding supports the hypothesis of Sen (2003) and Goodkind (1995) that the

advent of modern pre-natal sex selective abortion will replace or become a substitute of post-

natal excess female IMR.

The third debate surrounds whether son preference and daughter aversion has increased

in South India so that South India might be “catching up” with the north in terms of the number

of missing girls. In a district and village level study of daughter deficit in the southern state of

Tamil Nadu, Srinivasan and Bedi (2008) find strong evidence of both pre-natal sex selective

abortion and post-natal excess female infant death. Similarly, Basu (1999) demonstrates that

there has been an increase in female infanticide and sex selective abortion in Tamil Nadu,

especially Salem district, where mothers have admitted that female infants have been eliminated

in their families and would probably again be eliminated if born. This sudden surge in excess

female deaths in the south is attributed to a gradual devaluation of women creeping into this

region, driven by lower caste ambition to ape the Brahmin upper caste.

In addressing regional gaps in number, incidence and source of missing girls, this study

contributes to this strand of debate by demonstrating that the incidence of pre-natal sex selective
 30

abortion has indeed increased in all three states of South India, including Tamil Nadu, even as

the incidence of post-natal source has declined. This study thus draws attention to the possibility

that the problem of missing girls is now surfacing in South India with sex selective abortion

possibly being the preferred method of eliminating unwanted daughters.

Region/State specific policy intervention

Lastly, this study draws attention to the need for state-specific policy interventions. Table

6 presents customized policy prescription in order to pay urgent attention to the most pressing

issues that are specific to each state. Policy prescriptions are summarized as follows:

North: All states in North India need policy intervention and enforcement to curb pre-natal sex

selective abortion because of very high incidence and the possibility that this source of missing

girls is becoming more prominent. In addition, both Punjab and Rajasthan need policies to curb

post-natal source also, especially Rajasthan that has the highest incidence in the country.

Central: Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh need to focus on post-natal incidence. Although the

incidence in itself is declining, but nonetheless it is very high, with around 5-6 girls affected for

every 100 girls born.

West: The state of Maharashtra needs to focus on curtailing the surge and possible increasing

trend in the incidence of sex selective abortion.

East: Both Orissa and Bihar need to focus on policies to eliminate post-natal source of missing

girls. Between 4-5.50 girls die of post-natal neglect for every 100 girls born. In addition, Orissa

also needs to focus policies to restrain a possible increasing incidence of pre-natal sex selective

abortion.
 31

South: All three states of South India need to focus on curtailing a surge and possible increasing

trend in the incidence of sex selective abortion.

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 37

Table 1: Number and percentage distribution of births, Sex Ratio at Birth (SRB), male and
female infant mortality rate (IMR) by three waves of the National Family health Survey (NFHS)

NFHS-1 NFHS-2 NFHS-3

No. and % of births 272,687 264,608 256,782
(34%) (33%) (32%)
% of births in 1950-1979 40% 19% 4%
% of births in 1980-1989 46 39 27
% of births in 1990-1999 14 41 43
% of births in 2000-2005 0 0 26
SRB 107 109 108
Male age-1 IMR (per 1000 0.124 0.112 0.094
births)
Female age-1 IMRs (per 1000 0.127 0.114 0.090
births)
 38

Table 2: Benchmark SRB, Observed SRB, and incidence of missing girls due to pre-natal sex selective abortion by
state and decade of birth
1950-79 1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-2005

REGION: NORTH
Punjab
Est. % female deficit 1.7 3.17 3.66 4.39
Obs. SRB 107 115 120 135
Exp. SRB 99.96 101.28 103.61 113.02
Haryana
Est. % female deficit 3.9 3.56 3.3 3.56
Obs. SRB 110 110 114 128
Exp. SRB 94.10 95.39 99.88 110.88
Rajasthan
Est. % female deficit 1.74 1.84 1.5 1.97
Obs. SRB 114 114 109 112
Exp. SRB 106.32 105.89 102.65 103.50
REGION: CENTRAL
Uttar Pradesh
Est. % female deficit 1.82 1.88 1.81 1.7
Obs. SRB 110 111 107 110
Exp. SRB 102.27 102.95 99.52 102.76
Madhya Pradesh
Est. % female deficit 2.37 1.71 1.26 0.85
Obs. SRB 113 109 106 107
Exp. SRB 102.76 101.79 100.79 103.42
REGION: WEST
Maharashtra
Est. % female deficit 0 0.87 1.22 1.57
Obs. SRB 111 108 106 111
Exp. SRB 111.00 104.30 100.95 104.23
Gujarat
Est. % female deficit 1.49 1.32 1.03 0.92

Obs. SRB 109 107 107 110

Exp. SRB 102.69 101.49 102.68 106.02
Continued on next page
 39

Table 2 (continued): Benchmark SRB, Observed SRB, and incidence of missing girls due to pre-natal sex selective
abortion by state and decade of birth

1950-79 1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-2005

REGION: EAST
West Bengal
Est. % female deficit 1.15 0.35 0.25 0.12
Obs. SRB 110 104 105 106
Exp. SRB 105.05 102.55 103.95 105.49
Bihar
Est. % female deficit 2.78 1.79 1.22 0

Obs. SRB 111 106 105 101

Exp. SRB 99.31 98.67 100.00 101.00
Orissa
Est. % female deficit 0.88 0.93 1.06 1.33

Obs. SRB 109 107 108 111

Exp. SRB 105.23 103.09 103.51 105.24
REGION: SOUTH
Karnataka
Est. % female deficit 0.59 0.99 1.36 1.23
Obs. SRB 105 105 107 105
Exp. SRB 102.55 100.92 101.33 99.96
Andhra Pradesh
Est. % female deficit 0.58 0.51 0.97 1.18

Obs. SRB 109 104 105 110

Exp. SRB 106.50 101.90 101.00 104.92
Tamil Nadu
Est. % female deficit 0 0.56 1.05 1.87

Obs. SRB 108 106 104 107

Exp. SRB 108.00 103.65 99.72 99.29
 40

Table 3: Benchmark female age-1 IMR, observed female age-1 IMR, and incidence of missing girls due to post-
natal discrimination and neglect by state and decade of birth

1950-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-2005

REGION : NORTH
Punjab
% excess IM 3.23 4.09 3.95 3.30
Obs. FEMALE IMR 9.30 8.10 6.90 5.70
Exp. FEMALE IMR 6.07 4.01 2.95 2.40
Haryana
% excess IM 8.89 6.38 5.92 2.98
Obs. FEMALE IMR 15.8 10.6 8.9 5.1
Exp. FEMALE IMR 6.91 4.22 2.98 2.12
Rajasthan
% excess IM 6.93 8.06 7.30 7.16
Obs. FEMALE IMR 16.8 14.1 11.10 9.50
Exp. FEMALE IMR 9.87 6.04 3.80 2.34
REGION : CENTRAL
Uttar Pradesh
% excess IM 15.55 12.52 9.33 6.20
Obs. FEMALE IMR 25.8 18.2 12.6 8.10
Exp. FEMALE IMR 10.25 5.68 3.27 1.90
Madhya Pradesh
% excess IM 10.47 10.32 8.49 5.19

Obs. FEMALE IMR 21.20 16.80 12.30 7.40

Exp. FEMALE IMR 10.73 6.48 3.81 2.21
REGION : WEST
Maharashtra
% excess IM 7.54 3.64 2.45 1.62
Obs. FEMALE IMR 14.9 7.60 5.20 4.10
Exp. FEMALE IMR 7.36 3.96 2.75 2.48
Gujarat
% excess IM 6.45 5.70 4.63 3.24
Obs. FEMALE IMR 13.9 11 8.4 6.2
Exp. FEMALE IMR 7.45 5.30 3.77 2.96

Continued on next page

 41

Table 3 (continued): Benchmark female age-1 IMR, observed female age-1 IMR, and incidence of missing girls due
to post-natal discrimination and neglect by state and decade of birth
REGION : EAST
West Bengal
% excess IM 8.42 5.72 3.59 1.72
Obs. FEMALE IMR 15.9 10.4 6.6 4.1
Exp. FEMALE IMR 7.48 4.68 3.01 2.38
Bihar
% excess IM 8.53 8.84 7.08 5.53

Obs. FEMALE IMR 18.1 14.7 10.9 7.5

Exp. FEMALE IMR 9.57 5.86 3.81 1.97
Orissa
% excess IM 11.58 9.29 6.75 3.91

Obs. FEMALE IMR 19.5 14.4 10.3 6.1

Exp. FEMALE IMR 7.92 5.11 3.55 2.19
REGION: SOUTH
Karnataka
% excess IM 7.97 5.21 3.14 1.96
Obs. FEMALE IMR 16.7 10.3 6.6 4.8
Exp. FEMALE IMR 8.73 5.09 3.46 2.84
Andhra Pradesh
% excess IM 7.79 4.12 3.19 1.15
Obs. FEMALE IMR 15.8 8.8 7.1 4.1
Exp. FEMALE IMR 8.01 4.68 3.91 2.95
Tamil Nadu
% excess IM 8.69 4.92 3.33 1.32

Obs. FEMALE IMR 15.4 9.1 6.3 3.5

Exp. FEMALE IMR 6.71 4.18 2.97 2.18

Table 4: Estimated incidence of missing girls in India by source and decade (1950-2010)

Incidence of missing Incidence of missing Incidence of missing

girl from pre-natal girl from post-natal girl from both sources
Decade source (%) source (%) (%)
1950-1959 2.82 9.25 12.07
1960-1969 2.82 9.25 12.07
1970-1979 2.82 9.25 12.07
1980-1989 2.83 7.84 10.67
1990-1999 2.81 8.8 11.61
2000-2010 2.52 6.6 9.12
Total (1950-2010) 2.81 7.7 10.51
 42

Table 5: Estimated number and contribution to missing girls by source and decade (1950-2010)

no. of missing no. of missing total no. of % of

girls due to girls due to missing girls missing % of missing
excess IMR abortion by age girls due to girls due to
Decade (millions) (millions) 1(millions) excess IMR abortion
1950-1959 6.1 1.87 7.97 76.54% 23.46%
1960-1969 7.33 2.24 9.57 76.63 23.37
1970-1979 9.15 2.85 12.01 76.23 23.77
1980-1989 8.35 3.01 11.36 73.53 26.47
1990-1999 6.09 2.9 8.99 67.75 32.25
2000-2010 5.16 3.24 8.4 61.43 38.57
Total (1950-
2010) 42.18 16.11 58.29 72.36 27.64
 43

Table 6: Region/state specific recommended policy prescription

Region/State Policy intervention should Reason Incidence in 2000-2010

specifically target reducing…
North
Punjab Pre-natal sex selective Highest incidence in More than 4 female fetuses
abortion India that may be aborted for every 100 females
increasing born
3.30 females die by age -1 for
Post natal discrimination High incidence every 100 females born

Haryana Pre-natal sex selective High incidence that may More than 3.50 female fetuses
abortion be increasing aborted for every 100 females
born

Rajasthan Pre-natal sex selective Incidence may be Almost 2 female fetuses aborted
abortion increasing for every 100 females born

Post natal discrimination The highest incidence in More than 7 females die by age -1
India for every 100 females born

Central

Uttar Post natal discrimination High incidence More than 6 females die by age -1
Pradesh for every 100 females born
Madhya Post natal discrimination High incidence More than 5 females die by age -1
Pradesh for every 100 females born
West

Maharashtra Pre-natal sex selective Incidence may be More than 1.57 female fetuses
abortion increasing aborted for every 100 females
born

East
Orissa Pre-natal sex selective Incidence may be More than 1.57 female fetuses
abortion increasing aborted for every 100 females
born

Post natal discrimination High incidence Almost 4 females die by age -1

for every 100 females born

Bihar Post natal discrimination High incidence More than 5.50 females die by
age -1 for every 100 females born
South
Karnataka Pre-natal sex selective Incidence may be More than 1 female fetus aborted
abortion increasing for every 100 females born

Andhra Pre-natal sex selective Incidence may be More than 1 female fetus aborted
Pradesh abortion increasing for every 100 females born

Tamil Nadu Pre-natal sex selective Incidence may be Almost 2 female fetuses aborted
abortion increasing for every 100 females born

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