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This article has been accepted for publication and undergone full peer review but has not been
through the copyediting, typesetting, pagination and proofreading process which may lead to
differences between this version and the Version of Record. Please cite this article as doi:
10.1002/ijc.32232
Funding: This work was funded in part by the National Cancer Institute grant R03 CA199383
(MME). MME and MACA are supported in part by the National Center for Research Resources
and the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences, National Institutes of Health,
Key words: Multiple myeloma, temporal trends, cause of death, Puerto Rico
Abbreviations: MM, multiple myeloma; PRCCR, Puerto Rico Central Cancer Registry; SEER,
Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program; APC, Annual Percent Change; MGUS,
This study examined temporal trends in cause of death among patients with multiple
myeloma in Puerto Rico and the US SEER population over 26 years. We found that although
multiple myeloma-specific death decreased over time, it remains the predominant cause of death
for individuals diagnosed with multiple myeloma in both populations. However, as multiple
Abstract
patients’ long-term survival. This study examines trends in common causes of death among
patients with MM in Puerto Rico, and in the US Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results
(SEER) population.
We analyzed the primary cause of death among incident MM cases recorded in the Puerto
Rico Central Cancer Registry (n=3,018) and the US SEER Program (n=67,733) between 1987-
2013. We calculated the cumulative incidence of death due to the eight most common causes and
analyzed temporal trends in mortality rates using joinpoint regression. Analyses of SEER were
MM accounted for approximately 72% of all reported deaths among persons diagnosed
with MM in Puerto Rico and in SEER. In both populations, the proportion of patients who died
from MM decreased with increasing time since diagnosis. Age-standardized temporal trends
showed a decreased MM-specific mortality rate among US SEER (annual percent change
[APC]= -5.0) and Puerto Rican (APC=-1.8) patients during the study period, and particularly
also observed among US SEER (APC=-2.1) and Puerto Rican (APC=-0.1) populations.
MM-specific mortality decreased, yet remained the predominant cause of death for
individuals diagnosed with MM over a 26-year period. The most pronounced decreases in MM-
specific death occurred after 2003, which suggests a possible influence of more recently
developed MM therapies.
Introduction
Multiple myeloma (MM) is a cancer of plasma cells in the bone marrow which is
protein”.1 MM accounts for 1% of all cancers and approximately 10% of all hematologic
malignancies diagnosed in the US each year.2 In 2018, 30,770 new cases and 12,770 deaths from
MM were expected in the US, with only 50.7% of MM patients surviving 5 years after
diagnosis.3 Few risk factors for MM are known, but men are slightly more likely to develop MM
than women, and African Americans are twice as likely to develop MM as white Americans.4
The development of new treatments for MM over the past 10-15 years has encouragingly
extended the median survival of patients with this condition. Patients diagnosed with this
malignancy in the US had a 5-year survival rate of only 25-30% in the late 1970s,7 whereas
are generally diagnosed with MM at older ages — e.g., on average at age 70, when other co-
morbidities are also more common8 — and that survival rates for MM patients have improved, 4
it is likely that causes of death other than MM will be increasingly more common among MM
population of approximately 3.6 million, primarily of Hispanic origin (98%).9 It has been shown
that cancer trends in Puerto Rico differ strikingly from those of the continental United
States.10 Puerto Ricans also exhibited higher cancer mortality rates than other Hispanic ethnic
groups in a recent study.11 To the best of our knowledge, MM mortality has not been specifically
investigated in the Puerto Rican population. In addition, changing trends in the cause of death in
persons diagnosed with MM has not yet been examined in the US Surveillance, Epidemiology,
and End Results Program (SEER) and Puerto Rican populations. We hypothesized that, although
MM still accounts for most deaths among patients with this disease, a higher percentage of
people may be dying from other causes in recent years when compared to earlier periods. In
addition, due to varying prevalence of lifestyle risk factors and healthcare access,12 it is possible
that the specific causes of death may be different for patients diagnosed with MM in Puerto Rico
This study involved a secondary analysis of the databases of the Puerto Rico Central
Cancer Registry (PRCCR) and the SEER Program of the National Cancer Institute. The PRCCR
is responsible for collecting, analyzing, and publishing information on all cases of cancer
diagnosed and/or treated in Puerto Rico since 1950. The PRCCR has been part of the CDC's
National Program of Cancer Registries since 1997 and has complete information available from
1987 (http://www.rcpr.org/).13 The SEER program has collected data on cancer incidence and
mortality from various locations throughout the US since 1973 (https://seer.cancer.gov/). The
present analysis includes data from the SEER 18 registries.14 PRCCR uses similar standards for
coding data to those used by SEER, making the resulting data comparable.
This analysis included all MM cases aged 40 and older reported to the PRCCR and the
SEER Program and diagnosed between 1987-2013, because less than 1% of MM cases are
diagnosed under age 40. We began the study period in 1987 since this was the first year when
complete data were available from both study populations. The study was approved by the
Institutional Review Board of the University of Massachusetts Medical School, and a written
letter of approval for this analysis was obtained from the PRCCR.
Case ascertainment
A total of 4,246 cases of MM were diagnosed in Puerto Rico between 1987 and 2013. We
excluded cases with unknown diagnostic confirmation (n=624), different histologic type (other
than ICD-O-3 morphology code 9732; n=308), cases with a secondary diagnosis of MM
The US SEER Program data were extracted using SEER*Stat's client-server mode.15 A
total of 91,894 cases of MM were diagnosed in the US SEER population from 1987 to 2013. We
excluded cases of unknown diagnostic confirmation (n=4,056), cases with a different histologic
type (other than ICD-O-3 morphology code 9732; n= 5,700), cases with a secondary diagnosis of
MM (n=13,387), and people <40 years old (n=1,018), leaving 67,733 MM cases from SEER in
For patients with MM diagnosed in Puerto Rico, de-identified cause of death data were
provided by the Demographic Registry of Puerto Rico at the Puerto Rico Department of Health.
The Registry used the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Edition (ICD-9) to code
deaths occurring from 1987 to 1998 and the ICD Tenth Edition (ICD-10) to code deaths
occurring between 1999 and 2013. The SEER program used the ICD-9 to classify cause of death
for people who died from 1979 through 1998 and the ICD-10 to code deaths that occurred
thereafter.
The causes of death of study participants were harmonized between the US SEER and
Puerto Rico registries. We focused on MM and on the eight most common categories of non-
MM cause of death: certain infectious and parasitic diseases; diseases of the circulatory system;
system; endocrine, nutritional, and metabolic diseases; other cancers; and all other causes of
death. Cause of death categories were defined by ICD codes in the PRCCR (Supplemental Table
1) and by predetermined, descriptive categories based on ICD codes in the US SEER population
(Supplemental Table 2), as individual ICD codes were not available for the SEER population.
Statistical Analysis
compare categorical variables and ANOVA for continuous variables between populations. We
described the distribution of the most common causes of death among patients with MM in
Puerto Rico, and the overall SEER population, and further examined cause of death stratifying
the SEER population by Hispanic ethnicity. Cause of death was examined overall and by gender,
age at MM diagnosis, calendar year of MM diagnosis, and survival time. Survival time was
calculated from the date of MM diagnosis to the recorded date of death, loss to follow-up, or the
end of follow-up (December 31, 2013), whichever occurred first. We assessed the distribution of
causes of death among patients diagnosed with MM by calculating the percentage of total deaths
and the cumulative incidence of death from each of the selected causes using total deaths among
patients with MM as the denominator. We also examined temporal changes in cause of death by
calendar period defined by developments of new therapies for this disease.7 All analyses of the
SEER population were also stratified by Hispanic ethnicity (Hispanic versus non-Hispanic).
Population (10 age groups - Census P25-1130). We then used joinpoint regression to identify the
best-fit line through 26 years of annual age-standardized mortality rates, looking separately at
death from MM and from other causes. The annual percent change (APC) and 95% confidence
intervals (95% CI) were calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 4.6.0.0)
available from the National Cancer Institute.16 The Joinpoint Regression Program identifies the
the joinpoint regression findings, we calculated one-year limited duration prevalence estimates.
For the purposes of the prevalence estimates, the population at risk in 1987 was defined as all
men and women diagnosed with MM in 1987. In 1988 and subsequent years, we defined the
population at risk as people diagnosed with MM from all previous years. The age-standardized
joinpoint regression results were similar to those based on the limited-duration prevalence
estimates, and thus only the results of the joinpoint regression are presented. All other analyses
Results
MM was diagnosed slightly more often in men than women in both populations. The
median age at diagnosis was the same among non-Hispanics in the SEER population and in
Puerto Rico at approximately 69 years old, but slightly lower among Hispanics in SEER at 65
years (p-value <0.01) (Table 1). The median survival time was longer for cases diagnosed in the
median age at death was 2 years older in the US SEER population. In both populations, patients
with MM were more likely to die from MM than from other causes during the study period.
Among all deaths occurring in the study period, approximately 72.0% were due to MM in both
populations. The second most common cause of death in MM patients in Puerto Rico was from
other cancers (11.2%) followed by diseases of the circulatory (5.3%) and respiratory (3.7%)
systems. In the US SEER population, the second most common cause of death was diseases of
the circulatory system (11.6% of non-Hispanics and 10.0% of Hispanics) followed by other
causes of death (5.7% non-Hispanics and 4.6% Hispanics) and other cancers (5.3% non-
A greater proportion of deaths from MM occurred in men (51.9% in Puerto Rico; and
52.5% of non-Hispanics and 51.4% of Hispanics in SEER) than in women (48.1% in Puerto
Rico; and 47.5% of non-Hispanics and 48.6% of Hispanics in SEER) in both populations during
the study period (Table 2). The mean age at death from both MM and other causes was higher
among non-Hispanics in SEER when compared to both Puerto Ricans and Hispanics in SEER (p-
value< 0.001). Furthermore, Hispanics in SEER had a younger median age at death from both
In general, MM patients were more likely to die from MM than from other causes across
all time periods in all populations (Figure 1); nonetheless, the proportion of deaths due to MM
decreased somewhat for patients who lived three or more years after diagnosis in Puerto Rico
Hispanics and Hispanics). The decrease in the proportion of MM-specific deaths coincided with
a slight increase in the proportion of deaths from causes other than MM for patients who lived
longer. In these patients, we observed increasing proportions of deaths due to other cancers and
diseases of the circulatory and respiratory systems in Puerto Rican patients, and due to
circulatory system diseases, other cancers and other causes of death in SEER patients.
The results of the joinpoint regression suggest that while MM-specific mortality declined
in all populations over the study period, trends in non-MM causes varied by population. In the
non-Hispanic SEER population between 1987 and 2003, we observed an annual percent decrease
of 2.1% per year in deaths from MM, which grew to an annual percent decrease of 5.2% per year
from 2003 to 2013 in age-standardized temporal trends models (Figure 2 and Table 3). In the
Hispanic SEER population between 1987 and 2013, we observed an annual percent decrease of
3.0%, with no distinction over the time period. In Puerto Rico, an annual percent decrease of
only 1.8% per year was observed between 1987 and 2013 (Table 3). We observed fairly steady
mortality rates from all non-MM causes in the SEER population through 2003. From the
joinpoint regression, we also observed an annual percent decrease of 2.0% per year in death from
all non-MM causes from 2003 to 2013 among non-Hispanics, while the Hispanic US SEER
population had an annual percent decrease in non-MM causes of 2.3% from 1987 to 2013. In
contrast, in Puerto Rico, an annual decrease in non-MM death of just 0.1% per year was
We examined temporal trends in causes of death among patients with MM over 26 years
in two well-defined populations. Despite recent improvements in the treatment and long-term
survival of patients with MM, people diagnosed with MM in Puerto Rico and the US SEER
population, including Hispanics and non-Hispanics, remain more likely to die from MM.
However, in the most recent years, a decrease in the overall number of deaths from MM was
evident. We observed a slight increase in the proportion of deaths resulting from non-MM causes
with increasing survival time since diagnosis, which may be due to more effective treatments
prolonging the lives of MM patients.19 We also observed a decrease in both MM and non-MM
causes of death, particularly among non-Hispanics in the SEER population since 2003; this could
reflect patients living longer after their MM diagnosis, or a decrease in overall mortality in the
SEER population, as a decline in the age-standardized death rate in the United States has been
reported.20 However, it should also be noted that the Hispanic SEER population and the Puerto
Rican population were much smaller, and may have lacked the statistical power to detect such a
trend.
The results of the joinpoint regression analysis suggested that, in Puerto Rico overall,
deaths from MM have decreased over the study period, while deaths from other causes have also
decreased slightly as patients survive longer past diagnosis. Similarly, in the SEER population,
we observed a decrease in the proportion of deaths from both MM and other causes over the
decrease in deaths from non-MM causes. The more striking decline in both MM and other causes
treatment options.21 However, this may differ in Puerto Rico where the decrease in the
proportion of deaths was lower than in the SEER population. Puerto Ricans are known to be
vulnerable to cancer disparities and may have less access to new treatments due to higher cost,22
Rico lives in poverty,23 although the percentage of individuals in Puerto Rico without health
insurance was lower (6%) compared with mainland US (9%) in a 2015 survey.24
populations. In Puerto Rico, other cancers, diseases of the circulatory system, and diseases of the
respiratory system were the three most common non-MM causes of death among MM patients,
while in the SEER population including both non-Hispanics and Hispanics, diseases of the
circulatory system, other causes of deaths, and other cancers were the most common. Cause of
death among Hispanics in the SEER population appeared more similar to non-Hispanics in
SEER than to MM patients in Puerto Rico. Due to existing evidence for an increased risk of
certain types of secondary cancers like bone and other lymphoid cancers in survivors of MM, it
is not surprising that other cancers would comprise one of the major non-MM causes of death in
MM patients; however we were unable to assess the contribution of specific cancer types.25,26
Circulatory disease, which includes ischemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease, was
and treatment may increase the risk of cardiovascular events; pre-existing cardiovascular risk
factors could increase an MM patient’s risk of dying from this secondary cause.27 In addition,
respiratory disease was a common cause of death in Puerto Rico, but not among the top causes in
the SEER population. The respiratory tract is a common site of infection in MM patients.28 In
addition, in Puerto Rico, there is a high incidence of respiratory diseases likely due to
environmental factors like fungal spores,29 which may partially explain the elevated rate of death
from respiratory causes in this population specifically. Future studies could investigate the
In this study, we used reliable population-level data collected over 26 years by the
PRCCR and the US SEER program. The comparison of data from Puerto Rico with the Hispanic
between Puerto Rico and the US, and to evaluate the similarities and differences between these
populations with regards to MM outcomes. The lengthy study period allowed us to describe
subtle variations in the rates of death from MM and non-MM causes over nearly three decades.
Our analysis investigated time trends for MM-specific and non-MM deaths, which to our
knowledge has not previously been reported in these populations. We also were able to assess
MM patients in the Puerto Rico database, which may have limited the power to detect temporal
changes in less common causes of death. In addition, since data were only available through
2013, our findings may only partially reflect the influence of more recently approved therapies
for MM.31 We also lacked individual-level information on variables such as smoking, alcohol,
medication use, and obesity, which may contribute to risk of death from both MM and non-MM
causes. We limited the analyses to the primary cause of death and ignored contributing causes,
which may have over- or underestimated the number of deaths from MM, as patient deaths may
have been incorrectly attributed to their MM. Differences in the approach to coding cause of
death between populations may have resulted in misclassification of some less common causes
Conclusions
Our data illustrate that people diagnosed with MM are still more likely to die from MM
than from non-MM causes despite improvements in patient survival and treatment options during
the study period. Furthermore, the decreases in MM-specific death in Puerto Rico have occurred
at a lesser rate than in the SEER population, among both Hispanics and non-Hispanics, between
1987 and 2013 for reasons that are not immediately clear from this analysis. Nonetheless, death
rates from MM do appear to have decreased in both Puerto Rico and in the SEER population. It
is to be expected that as MM patients continue to survive longer, the management of other co-
morbid conditions will be of increasing importance in this patient population, and that the
warranted to further clarify trends in co-morbidity and cause of death, to elucidate potential areas
for improvement in care, and enhance the survival of patients with MM. Multi-center studies
with detailed individual-level data are needed to further investigate the underlying explanations
for our observed results, including examining associations between temporal changes to
individual risk factors and treatment patterns with survival time and cause of death in MM
patients.
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Facts
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United States Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER) 1987–2013
Non-Hispanics US
Overall US SEER Hispanics US SEER Puerto Rico*
SEER
Characteristics (n=67,733) (n=61,138) (n=6,595) (n=3,018)
n % n % n % n %
Male 36,177 53.4 32,691 53.5 3,486 52.9 1,537 50.9
Median age at diagnosis, years 69 69 65 69
Age at diagnosis in years
40-59 17,410 25.7 15,190 24.9 2,220 33.7 686 22.7
60-69 18,401 27.2 16,503 27.0 1,898 28.8 889 29.5
70-79 19,460 28.7 17,812 29.1 1,648 25.0 947 31.4
≥80 12,462 18.4 11,633 19.0 829 12.6 496 16.4
Year of diagnosis
1987-1997 13,226 19.5 12,375 20.2 851 12.9 999 33.1
1998-2002 12,670 18.7 11,500 18.8 1,170 17.7 388 12.8
2003-2007 17,227 25.4 15,446 25.3 1,781 27.0 577 19.1
2008-2013 24,610 36.3 21,817 35.7 2,793 42.4 1,054 34.9
Median survival time, years (±SD) 2 2 2 1
Median age at death, years1 74 74 71 72
Died from all causes 46,746 69 42,648 69.8 4,098 62.1 2,293 76
Died from multiple myeloma 33,336 49.2 30,280 49.5 3,056 46.3 1,628 54
Died from other cause 13,410 19.8 12,368 20.2 1,042 15.8 665 22
Censored2 20,987 31 18,490 30.2 2,497 37.9 725 24
Cause-specific death
Myeloma 33,336 71.3 30,280 71 3,056 74.6 1,628 71.7
1987–2013 and the United States Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER), 1987–2013*
and other causes of death by calendar period using joinpoint regression, and age-standardized to the United States population in 2000.