PAKISTAN ECONOMIC

SURVEY 2017-2019

BY: - SEEMA KHAN (22181)

To: - MA’AM MISBAH IQBAL
SUB: - IBF
Abstract:-____________________________________________
This study examines the Impact of Pakistan economic growth and development
from past 3 years. Availableliterature review shows both negative and positive
impacts of development. Including variouscross-country thinks about have
appeared positive relationship between trade openness andfinancial
development. The changing global condition in fund, HR, innovation,
legislativeissues, financial matters, and social conditions has made open doors for
the entrepreneur’sventures to extend their worldwide organizations at a lot
quicker pace. Its effect on systemwill be significant, yet additionally uncertain.
Common clash and psychological warfareutilizing weapons of mass demolition are
among the new dangers that can puzzle customaryapparatuses of system.
Echinococcus multilocularis, the reason for human alveolar echinococcosis, has
been accounted for in a few new nations both in conclusive hosts due
toglobalization. By analyzing Pakistan’s per capita income, performance of
economy, sectorcontribution in GDP, real GDP growth.

INTRODUCTION:-_____________________________________
Pakistan’s economy continues to perform impressively and its economic
fundamentals have gained further traction in the fiscal year 2016-17. After the
elections of 2013 when the previous government came into power it particularly
focused on the revival of the economy and within a short period of time it
achieved considerable gains in restoring economic stability. Pakistan likewise
endeavored to incorporate its economy in the worldwide economy through
changing its speculation and exchange routine inside the structure of the IMF and
the World Bank. A survey of writing demonstrates that in spite of the fact that
various cross-country examines have appeared positive relationship between
trade openness and monetary development. As being an agriculture country they
mainly focused in this sector and introduced more job opportunities. Throughout
the most recent four decades, the structure of Pakistan's GDP has experienced
extensive change as the offer of administrations division in GDP has expanded.

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The legislature stayed submitted in giving business well-disposed
condition so as to attract foreign investment interest in the
nation, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is an achievement in such
manner. In 2017-18, services sector kept up the development force.

Above graph is just an overview of Pakistan economic growth in different sectors

over a decade. During FY 2018, GDP development of 5.79 percent is shared
between the services and commodity producing (agriculture and industry)
segments of the economy. The two segments (agriculture & industry) of item
creating segments have appeared in contributing in by and large economic
growth. Out of the commodity producing sector, agribusiness division shared 0.73
percentage focuses to by and large GDP development when contrasted with 0.41
percentage focuses a year ago, while industrial sector contributed 1.21 rate
focuses in FY 2018 when contrasted with 1.14 percentage purposes of a year ago.
Amid FY 2018, services sector contributed 3.85 percent guides analyzed toward
3.83 percentage focuses.

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“PAKISTAN ECONOMIC SURVEY
2016-17”

GDP GROWTH: -
When the previous government came in to power in 2013 since then from there
very first year the increase in GDP of Pakistan was recorded until 2017. Inflation
rate remained 4.09% while the volume of Pakistan’s economy surpassed $300
billion.
During their tenure and by the end of 2015 a massive jump in Pakistan’s
agriculture sector was recorded, which was 0.3% in 2015-2016 to 3.5% in 2016-
2017.Moreover Growth of forestry is 7.17 percent due to high timber production
reported by Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK).
The services sector has also recorded an increase in growth as it finished at 5.98%
in 2016- 2017 compared to last year’s figures which enabled it to stand at 5.70%.
The increased caused by the following reasons:
I. Revenues from telecom sector reached an estimated Rs 235.5 billion.
II. E commercial launch of 3G and 4G Long Term Evolution (LTE) services
opened new opportunities for revenue generation for the mobile
operators.
The broadband penetration jumped from 3.7 million to 52 million

E agriculture, industrial and service sectors of Pakistan grew by 3.8percent.

Economy continued to benefit from growth oriented initiatives, including higher
development spending, low inflation, vigilant monetary policy, and CPEC related
investment thus providing impetus for economic recovery.
Industrial growth was at the best phase if compared to the past 10 years and it
was increased by the rate of 5.80% till 2016, However it declined to 5.0% in 2017
due to unstable political situation of the country.

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Investment and Savings Total investment was reached to the level
of Rs. 5026 billion as compared to the Rs 4526 billion previous
years. Investment to GDP ratio were reached to 15.78 percent in FY 2017. Fixed
investment was increased to Rs 4517 billion as compared to Rs. 4061 billion
previous years. National savings were 13.1 percent of GDP in FY2017 against 14.3
percent last year. Domestic savings were recorded at 7.5 percent of GDP in
outgoing fiscal year as compared to 8.2 percent of GDP last year.
Per capita income is one of the most useful and accurate measures of the well-
being of countries around the world. It is a vital economic indicator that also
points out to the economic development that has taken place in a country.
As per the Economic Survey of Pakistan, the per capita income has seen a growth
of 6.4% in FY2017 as compared to last year when the figure stood a 1.1%. Foreign
Direct Investment Pakistan also registered a growth in FDI for this year.
According to the Economic Survey of Pakistan, a 12.75% growth was registered in
FDI as compared to last year. Currently, Pakistan’s FDI stands at Rs. 1.733 billion
whereas last year it stood at $1.537 billion. Major FDI inflows Major FDI inflows
during the period under review were from China ($ 744.4 Million), Netherland
($478.6 Million), France ($171.0 Million), Turkey ($137.7 Million), US ($103.2
Million), U.A.E ($ 48.4 Million), UK ($47.6 Million), Italy ($ 47.4 Million), Japan ($
42.1 Million) and Germany ($ 40.5 Million).
Fiscal deficit decreases to 4.2 percent the fiscal deficit of Pakistan has also
registered a decrease. From 2015-16 when it was 4.6 percent, the fiscal deficit has
been brought down to 4.2 percent. As can be seen, the fiscal deficit has been
decreasing ever since 2012-2013 when it was at a staggering 8.2 percent.
Overall the economic year of Pakistan 2016-2017 was pretty good, many growths
were recorded in different industries and sectors. Other sectors like wise
manufacturing grew by 6.24 percent, which is highest in 11 years of economic
history.

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“PAKISTAN ECONOMIC SURVEY 2017-18”
With the help of graph on page No.2 of this document shows the financial year
(FY) that During FY 2018, GDP development of 5.79 percent is shared between the
services and commodity, the two segments (agriculture & industry) of item
creating segments have appeared in contributing in by and large economic
growth. Out of the commodity producing sector, agribusiness division shared 0.73
percentage focuses to by and large GDP development when contrasted with
0.41% focuses a year ago, while industrial sector contributed 1.21 rate focuses in
FY 2018 when contrasted with 1.14 percentage purposes of a year ago. Amid FY
2018, services sector contributed 3.85 percent guides analyzed toward 3.83
percentage focuses a year ago.

Amid FY2018, per capita pay expanded by 0.5 percent to $1,641. According to PBS
(Pakistan Bureau of Statistics), per capita pay amid 2016-17 is Rs. 162,230
($1,641) in view of provisional figures of Population Census 2017 held in March
2017 207,774,520. The amended arrangement of per capita salary will be
accumulated after conclusion of sixth Housing and Population Census.
During the fiscal year of 2017-2018 the change in exports can be seen by the
increase 12.0 percent while imports have slowed down to 16.6 percent as
compared to 48 percent at the start of current financial year.

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The following trend was fade out due to Government supportive
initiatives towards lowering the imports of luxury items in order
control the monetary supply of money.The government’s vision is focused on the
diversification of exports to include new products/services and partners,
increased involvement in global value chains, increasing foreign direct investment
greater revenue collection, transparency in trade transactions and expanded
participation of small and medium-sized enterprises in international trade. SBP
has prepared a comprehensive ‘Policy for Promotion of SME Financing’ which was
launched by Prime Minister of Pakistan on December 22, 2017. The policy will
enhance the share of SME financing in total private sector credit from 8.8 percent
as of December 2017.
Growth and Investments: -
The growth momentum remained above 5 percent for the last two years in a row
and reached 5.79 percent in FY2018 which is 13 years high on account of a strong
performance in agriculture, industry and services sectors which grew by 3.81
percent, 5.80 percent and 6.43 percent, respectively.
1. Agriculture: -Agriculture sector recorded a remarkable growth of 3.81
percent and exceeded its targeted growth of 3.5 percent and also last
year’s growth 2.07 percent.

2. Manufacturing and Mining: -During July-February FY 2018, the Large Scale

Manufacturing (LSM) registered a growth of 6.24 percent as compared to
4.40 percent in the same period last year. On Year on Year (YoY), LSM
recorded a growth of 5.52 percent in February 2018 compared to 9.47
percent in February 2017.

INFLATION: - During current fiscal year FY 2018, CPI increased to 4.6 percent
which was the highest since the start of current fiscal year FY 2018, in January
2018 it was came down to 4.4 percent and in March 2018, it fell eight month low
at 3.2 percent on account of subdued food prices which offset the impact of rise
of petroleum prices.

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 “PAKISTAN ECONOMIC SURVEY 2018-19”
Pakistan’s political and economic management history, fiscal year 2018-19
represents a break from the past. People of Pakistan voted into power a new
party – Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) – mainly as it was seen to provide a
transparent, more efficient government with a more egalitarian development
agenda. However so farthey are badly failed to do so. The present government
inherited a weakening economy. The fiscal deficit was high, the current account
deficit was also at the highest level in country’s economic history, debt liabilities
had risen to a level where servicing of the debt took a sizeable portion of the
federal government’s budget, and foreign exchange reserves had depleted to a
level that was insufficient to finance even two months of imports. This instability
was a result of structural weaknesses in the economy.
Some proofs of weak governance are being seen by various sectors of the
economy. However the new elected government faces formidable
macroeconomic challenges. The foremost challenge to the economy is the rising
aggregate demand without corresponding resources to support it, leading to
rising fiscal and external account deficits.
Few good aspects are also taken place like wise as a short-term measure to get a
breathing space, the current government secured $ 9.2 billion from friendly
countries to build up buffers and to ensure timely repayment of previous loans.
The outgone fiscal year 2018-19 witnessed a muted growth of 3.29 percent
against the ambitious target of 6.2 percent. The target was based upon sectorial
growth projections as previous government have forecasted due to do good
establishment policies, for agriculture, industry, and services at 3.8 percent, 7.6
percent and 6.5 percent respectively. The actual sectorial growth turned out to be
0.85 percent for agriculture, 1.4 percent for industry and 4.7 percent for services.
Some of the major crops witnessed negative growth as production of cotton, rice
and sugarcane declined by 17.5 percent, 3.3 percent and 19.4 percent
respectively. The crops showing positive growth include wheat and maize which

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grew at the rate of 0.5 percent and 6.9 percent respectively.
Other crops have shown growth of 1.95 percent
Growth and Investment: -
The provisional GDP growth rate for FY2019 is estimated at 3.29 percent. Various
departments has grown accordingly as explained below. However it is yet being
confirmed that Pakistan economy is facing a hard times. Though if we compare to
the first year of Nawaz Government with the first year of Imran’s Government the
huge difference would be seen in terms of success.
1. Agriculture: -The provisional agriculture sector growth is estimated at 0.85
percent. The crops sector has witnessed negative growth of 4.4 percent
during FY2019 mainly due to negative growth (-6.6 percent) of important
crops. Moreover Production of cotton and sugarcane the two very
important cash crop were also declined.
2. Industry: - During FY2019, the provisional growth in industrial sector has
been estimated at only 1.40 percent mainly due to decline by 2.06 percent
in large scale manufacturing sector and by 1.96 percent in mining and
quarrying sector. The decline was faced because many companies have
been shut down and the FDI (foreign Direct Investment) was also effected
due to bad governance.
3. Investment: -The provisional estimates of Gross Fixed Capital Formation
(GFCF) for the year FY2019 stands at Rs.5340.0 billion with a growth of 1.9
percent. In private sector, the GFCF is estimated at Rs.3796.1 billion during
FY2019 against Rs.3564.0 billion in FY2018 with an increase of 6.5 percent,
while in Public Sector GFCF posted a growth of 9.8 percent as it is estimated
at Rs.345.3 billion during FY2019 against Rs.314.6 billion during FY2018.

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