CAUTIOUS

Telecommunication Services
India JULY 20, 2019
UPDATE
BSE-30: 38,337

R-Jio 1QFY20 – topline growth slows. It is difficult to comment on R-Jio’s below-

revenue-line 1QFY20 performance given the company’s decision to not share any useful
numbers on the P&L/CF impact of fiber/tower asset transfer to the two respective InVIT-
owned SPVs. Restricting disclosures to strictly the ‘sale’ part of what were in spirit ‘sale
and leaseback transactions’ hampers our ability to analyze numbers below revenues.
Leaseback details would have been useful voluntary disclosure to have, given the
materiality of the transactions. On the revenue front, ARPU declined more than
expected even as other metrics (EOP subs, data volumes, voice traffic, etc.) were in line.

Revenue growth slows down to 5.2% qoq

R-Jio’s net revenue growth pace continues to come down. 1QFY20 revenues grew a modest 5.2%
qoq and 44% yoy to Rs116.8 bn, 3.7% below our estimated Rs121.3 bn. Revenue growth was
led by a 8% qoq increase in EOP subs with average subs base growing 8.7%. ARPU/sub/month
declined a sharp 3.3% qoq and 9.3% yoy to Rs122.1/share; our estimate was Rs126.5. The
company attributed the sequential ARPU decline to – (a) higher adoption of long-term (>= 70
day) plans (please see Exhibit 1 for R-Jio’s most popular plans and implied ARPU), (b) increase in
proportion of discounted digital recharges, and (c) impact of JioPhones.

We are a tad surprised with the magnitude of qoq ARPU decline as none of these factors was a
completely fresh one. If anything, with two mega cricketing events during the quarter, 1Q
should have seen an ARPU bump up from sale of cricket pack top-ups (Rs251 top-up; additional
102 GB data for 51 days). The company had indicated good adoption of this top-up plan in the
CY2018 IPL season. With an additional mega cricketing event to boot, we are surprised 1QFY20
did not see much demand for this top-up plan. If the current data allowances are sufficient for
watching long cricket matches on a wireless connection on the go, as R-Jio suggested, case for
increasing ARPU by selling higher-value, higher-allowance plans seems quite weak.

Ind-AS 116 adoption lifts reported EBITDA by Rs3.7 bn; below-revenue P&L tough to analyze

R-Jio’s reported EBITDA of Rs46.7 bn for the quarter was materially (26%) ahead of our
expected Rs37.1 bn. Ind-AS 116 lease accounting adoption boosted reported EBITDA by Rs3.7
bn as the company recognized Rs66.3 bn right-to-use assets (and a corresponding lease liability)
pertaining to tower rental agreements that qualify for lease accounting under AS116. PBT and
PAT impact was marginal. The company did indicate that not all tower rental agreements
qualified and hence, the disclosed numbers (Rs66.33 bn asset/liability recognition or the Rs3.72
bn EBITDA impact) do not convey much about the leaseback agreements with the tower SPV.

P&L contours (below revenue line) were impacted further and materially so, by the transfer of
tower and fiber assets to the two respective InVIT-owned SPVs effective March 31, 2019.
Balance sheet impact (asset transfer value post revaluation, debt transferred, fresh preference
shares, etc.) on R-Jio was duly disclosed in 4QFY19 analyst meet. Sufficient details were Rohit Chordia
provided to understand the ‘sale’ part of the two ‘sale and leaseback’ transactions (in spirit). We rohit.chordia@kotak.com
Mumbai: +91-22-4336-0885
were hoping to get sufficient details to understand the ‘leaseback’ part of the transactions in
the 1QFY20 print or the analyst meet. We did not; published disclosures didn’t help nor did the Aniket Sethi
analyst meet. These disclosures were of course voluntary (and not statutory) in nature; choosing aniket.sethi@kotak.com
Mumbai: +91-22-4336-0881
to disclose details on one half (‘sale’ or balance sheet impact) and not the other (‘leaseback’ or
P&L/cash flow impact) is a tad disappointing and seriously restricts our ability to analyze the
1QFY20 P&L below the EBITDA line. We are leaving our model and fair value estimate for R-Jio
unchanged for now; will review the same post ARFY19 release.

Kotak Institutional Equities Research

kotak.research@kotak.com
Mumbai: +91-22-4336-0000

For Private Circulation Only. FOR IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT KOTAK SECURITIES’ RATING SYSTEM AND OTHER DISCLOSURES, REFER TO THE END OF THIS MATERIAL.
India Telecommunication Services

Brookfield consortium to invest Rs252 bn in the tower InVIT

R-Jio announced an agreement with Brookfield Infrastructure Partners and its affiliates for an
investment of Rs252 bn in the tower InVIT. Brookfield will subscribe to units issued by the
InVIT. The InVIT will subsequently – (a) buyout the 49% stake in the tower SPV, not owned
by the trust yet, for a consideration of Rs2.15 bn, and (c) infuse the balance Rs250 bn as
debt to the tower SPV. The tower SPV would also raise new external debt of Rs115 bn. Total
new debt of Rs365 bn (Rs250 bn from the InVIT + Rs115 new external debt) would be used
to replace the extant debt as at end-FY2019 – Rs110 bn bank borrowings, Rs137 bn capex
credit, and Rs118 bn RIL NCDs.

Transaction closure is subject to regulatory approvals. R-Jio did not disclose any details on
the yield/IRR of the Brookfield investment. As discussed earlier, we think these would have
been good disclosures to help the Street appreciate the ‘sale and leaseback’ transaction in its
entirety. Voluntary as these disclosures may be, they would have scored high on the
governance scorecard.

Capex remains high; partly on increase in capitalized costs, in our view

R-Jio’s 1QFY20 capex stood at Rs85 bn. We note that tower and fiber related capex is now
outside Jio (being done by the respective SPVs). Capex on digital assets (platforms, software,
content, etc.) is also outside Jio; this stood at Rs35 bn for the quarter. Even as capitalization
of fiber rentals paid to the fiber SPV (company indicated that a bulk of these costs are being
capitalized) partly explains the still-high capex, we are surprised with the high levels of capex
at R-Jio. There was no spectrum capex during the quarter, tower and fiber capex is now
outside R-Jio and so is capex on digital assets. We are not sure if a bulk of R-Jio’s capex now
reflects just cost capitalization. We understand from our discussions with tower companies
in the industry that Jio’s pace of site rollout has slowed down materially in the past few
months.

A chart in the presentation with worrying implications for the industry

Jio indicated that its subs and revenue market share (26% and 40%, respectively) is still well
below its 4G subs and 4G traffic market share. This gap should narrow as LTE is adopted by
a larger base of subs, per the company. This can be seen as an indirect indication that Jio
does not see itself anywhere close to its subs and revenue market share target. Worrying if
this were to be extrapolated to Jio being in no rush to raise pricing, especially when seen in
conjunction with the aggressive non-pricing ‘deleveraging’ moves. Exhibit 2 reproduces the
chart.

Voice traffic flow getting more balanced

Jio reported a sharp 23% qoq decline in net interconnect costs to Rs8.5 bn. With no change
in IC rates during the quarter, this is reflective of both higher on-net and outgoing minutes
at Jio. We do note that Jio’s net IC costs, reflective of net IC EBITDA for the rest of the
industry, is still a fairly large number in the context of the decimated/low current EBITDA
base of Bharti and VIL. This going down to zero from Jan 1, 2020 would still hurt.

Operating KPIs – strong volume growth sustains

 EOP subs base stood at 331 mn, +24.5 mn net adds qoq; churn stood at 0.97%.

 Data volumes stood at 10.9 bn GB for the quarter, +15% qoq, implying a data usage per
sub of 11.4 GB/month, +5% qoq.

 Voice traffic stood at 786 bn minutes, +8.5% qoq and +75% yoy; MOU was 821
minutes per sub per month, flat qoq but up 10% yoy.

2 KOTAK INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES RESEARCH

Telecommunication Services India

Exhibit 1: Comparison of Jio's short (28 days) and long (>=70 days) tariff plans

Price Validity Data allowance Fair usage policy Effective ARPU Consumer price
Operator (Rs) (days) (GB) (GB/day) (Rs/month) (Rs/GB/day)
28-day validity plans
Jio 149 28 42 1.50 137 3.5
Jio 198 28 56 2.00 182 3.5
>70-day validity plans
Jio 349 70 105 1.50 129 3.3
Jio 399 84 126 1.50 122 3.2
Jio 449 91 137 1.50 127 3.3
Jio 398 70 140 2.00 147 2.8
Jio 448 84 168 2.00 137 2.7
Jio 498 91 182 2.00 141 2.7

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities

Exhibit 2: Jio’s market share across metrics, March-2019 (%)

70 66
64

60

50

40
40

30 26

20

10

0
Subs AGR 4G subs 4G traffic

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities

KOTAK INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES RESEARCH 3

India Telecommunication Services

Exhibit 3: Interim performance of Reliance Jio, March fiscal year-ends (Rs mn)

1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19 4QFY19 1QFY20 qoq (%) yoy (%) 1QFY20E Deviation (%)
Profit model
Revenues 81,091 92,400 103,830 111,060 116,790 5.2 44.0 121,326 (3.7)
Interconnect (net) (10,570) (10,460) (10,050) (10,990) (8,510) (22.6) (19.5) (11,500) (26.0)
LF/SUC (8,602) (9,830) (11,360) (11,800) (12,870) 9.1 49.6 (12,950) (0.6)
Network operating costs (21,429) (26,040) (31,900) (34,010) (38,240) 12.4 78.5 (48,068) (20.4)
Employee costs (3,677) (4,060) (4,260) (4,580) (3,920) (14.4) 6.6 (4,900) (20.0)
SG&A and other costs (5,353) (6,290) (5,740) (6,420) (6,550) 2.0 22.4 (6,800) (3.7)
EBITDA 31,460 35,720 40,520 43,260 46,700 8.0 48.4 37,108 25.8
Other income 14 10 10 30 160 43
Finance cost (7,676) (9,960) (10,910) (12,940) (16,600) 28.3 116.3 (9,458)
Depreciation and amortization (14,394) (15,310) (16,840) (17,440) (16,570) (5.0) 15.1 (12,025)
Profit before taxes 9,405 10,460 12,780 12,910 13,690 6.0 45.6 15,668 (12.6)
Current tax (2,027) (2,250) (2,760) (2,780) (2,950) (4,593)
Deferred tax (1,259) (1,400) (1,710) (1,730) (1,830) (875)
Net income/(loss) 6,119 6,810 8,310 8,400 8,910 6.1 45.6 10,200 (12.6)
Contribution to RIL's EPS (Rs) 1.03 1.15 1.40 1.42 1.50 6.1 45.4 1.72 (12.7)
Operational metrics
EOP subscribers (mn) 215.3 252.3 280.1 306.7 331.2 8.0 53.8 332.7 (0.5)
Average subscribers (mn) 201.0 233.8 266.2 293.4 319.0 8.7 58.7 319.7 (0.2)
ARPU (Rs/sub/month) 134.5 131.7 130.0 126.2 122.1 (3.3) (9.3) 126.5 (3.5)
EBITDA margins (%) 38.8 38.7 39.0 39.0 40.0 30.6
Data consumption (bn GB) 6.42 7.71 8.64 9.56 10.90 14.0 69.8 10.84
Data consumption per user (GB/month) 10.65 10.99 10.82 10.86 11.39 4.9 7.0 11.30
Total voice traffic (bn min) 449 534 634 724 786 8.5 75.2 794
MOU (min/sub/month) 744 761 794 823 821 (0.2) 10.4 828
Costs as % of revenues
Interconnect costs (net) 13.0 11.3 9.7 9.9 7.3 9.5
LF/SUC as % of net revenues 12.2 12.0 12.1 11.8 11.0 10.7
Network operating costs 26.4 28.2 30.7 30.6 32.7 39.6
Employee costs 4.5 4.4 4.1 4.1 3.4 4.0
SG&A and other costs 6.6 6.8 5.5 5.8 5.6 5.6
ETR (%) 34.9 34.9 35.0 34.9 34.9 34.9

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities

4 KOTAK INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES RESEARCH

Telecommunication Services India

Exhibit 4: Reliance Jio condensed balance sheet, March fiscal year-ends (Rs mn)

Rs bn Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19

Assets
Non-current assets
Net PP&E 10 856 958 1,116 746
CWIP 1,124 523 610 751 310
Intangible assets 0 599 598 589 594
Intangible assets under dev 656 82 90 95 36
Investments 9 9 10 11 11
Other financials assets 0 0 0 0 0
Deferred tax assets 42 43 40 38 34
Other non-current assets 37 35 36 39 91
Total non-current assets 1,877 2,148 2,342 2,638 1,823
Current assets
Receivables — 8 9 16 7
Cash and equivalents 0 0 7 1 0
Other bank balances 0 0 0 4 4
Other financial assets 2.4 1 3 32 8
Other current assets 129 155 176 201 115
Total current assets 132 164 195 253 135
Total assets 2,009 2,312 2,537 2,891 1,958

Equty and liabilities

Share capital 450 450 450 450 450
Other equity 259 461 579 592 (46)
Total equity 709 911 1,029 1,042 404
Non-current liabilities
Borrowings 384 334 352 557 656
Other financial liabilities 90 89 85 140 100
Deferred payment liabilities 201 204 202 197 188
Provisions — — 4 4 -
Total non-current liabilities 676 627 643 898 945
Current liabilities
Borrowings 59 61 133 208 36
Payables — 36 31 37 33
Other financial liabilities 535 632 658 662 485
Deferred payment liabilities 7 15 9 9 14
Other current liabilities 22 29 34 34 41
Provisions 1 1 1 1 1
Total current liabilities 624 774 865 951 609
Total liabilities 1,300 1,401 1,508 1,849 1,554
Total equity and liabilities 2,009 2,312 2,537 2,891 1,958

Net debt 1,266 1,324 1,417 1,726 1,456

Adjusted net debt 2,163

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities

KOTAK INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES RESEARCH 5

India Telecommunication Services

Exhibit 5: Condensed pro-forma balance sheet, fiber and tower SPVs (Rs bn)

Rs bn Fiber SPV Tower SPV Total

Assets 1,664 368 2,032

Share capital 5 2 7
Preference shares 781 1 782
Liabilities
Bank borrowings 270 110 380
Others (capex creditors) 190 137 327
RIL NCDs 248 118 366
Advance paid by Jio 170 - 170
Total liabilities 1,664 368 2,032

Note:
(a) Adjusted for loan movements and advances paid by Jio post March 31, 2019.

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities

Exhibit 6: Reliance Jio InvIT structure

Source: Company

6 KOTAK INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES RESEARCH

Disclosures

"Each of the analysts named below hereby certifies that, with respect to each subject company and its securities for which
the analyst is responsible in this report, (1) all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views
about the subject companies and securities, and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or
indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report: Rohit Chordia, Aniket Sethi."

Kotak Institutional Equities Research coverage universe

Distribution of ratings/investment banking relationships
Percentage of companies covered by Kotak Institutional
70%
Equities, within the specified category.

60%
Percentage of companies within each category for which Kotak
Institutional Equities and or its affiliates has provided
50%
investment banking services within the previous 12 months.

40% * The above categories are defined as follows: Buy = We

expect this stock to deliver more than 15% returns over the
29.9% next 12 months; Add = We expect this stock to deliver 5-15%
30% 26.0%
23.5% returns over the next 12 months; Reduce = We expect this stock
20.6% to deliver -5-+5% returns over the next 12 months; Sell = We
20% expect this stock to deliver less than -5% returns over the next
12 months. Our target prices are also on a 12-month horizon
basis. These ratings are used illustratively to comply with
10%
3.4% 3.4% applicable regulations. As of 30/06/2019 Kotak Institutional
0.5% 0.0% Equities Investment Research had investment ratings on 204
0% equity securities.
BUY ADD REDUCE SELL

Source: Kotak Institutional Equities As of June 30, 2019

Ratings and other definitions/identifiers

Definitions of ratings

BUY. We expect this stock to deliver more than 15% returns over the next 12 months.

ADD. We expect this stock to deliver 5-15% returns over the next 12 months.

REDUCE. We expect this stock to deliver -5-+5% returns over the next 12 months.

SELL. We expect this stock to deliver <-5% returns over the next 12 months.

Our Fair Value estimates are also on a 12-month horizon basis.

Our Ratings System does not take into account short-term volatility in stock prices related to movements in the market. Hence, a particular Rating may not
strictly be in accordance with the Rating System at all times.

Other definitions

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designations: Attractive, Neutral, Cautious.

Other ratings/identifiers

NR = Not Rated. The investment rating and fair value, if any, have been suspended temporarily. Such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulation(s)
and/or Kotak Securities policies in circumstances when Kotak Securities or its affiliates is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction
involving this company and in certain other circumstances.

CS = Coverage Suspended. Kotak Securities has suspended coverage of this company.

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RS = Rating Suspended. Kotak Securities Research has suspended the investment rating and fair value, if any, for this stock, because there is not a sufficient
fundamental basis for determining an investment rating or fair value. The previous investment rating and fair value, if any, are no longer in effect for this stock
and should not be relied upon.

NA = Not Available or Not Applicable. The information is not available for display or is not applicable.

NM = Not Meaningful. The information is not meaningful and is therefore excluded.

KOTAK INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES RESEARCH 7

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91-(022) 4285 8301.
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