In the last chapter you learned hhow to graph linear equations with two variables. Now you will use wo variables in real-world situa- tions where the value of one vari- table depends on the value of the ‘other. For instance, the length of each vertical girder on a bridge depends on the distance of that sirder from the end of the bridge You will find an equation that fits a set of points, then use that equa tion to make predictions about such things as how high your grade could be if vou studied for 5 hours. You will aiso fit linear func- tions to data that is “scattered.” For insiance, the height of an oak tree is function of how od it But data gathered from many oak trees will not follow a perfectly smooth line. Figuring out some- thing about the real world by ana- Iyzing data is a problem in statis- tics. The reverse problem, using ‘knowledge of the real world to predict how the data will come out, is called probability. You will use both probability and statistics in this chapter81 Linear Functions 339 81 | LINEAR FUNCTIONS Sometimes in the real world two variable quantities are related in such a way that the graph is a straight line, As an example, suppose that a plumber charges $35 to make a house call, plus $25 an hour for the actual work. Let x be the number of hours the plumber works. Let y be the total number of dollars charged. An expression for the number of dollars charged is 25x + 35, So an equa- tion for y in terms of x is y= 25x + 35, From your work in Chapter 7 you should recognize that this is the equation of a straight line. ‘The slope is 25 and the y-intercept is 35. The figure shows a graph of this equation. Different scales are used on the two axes to make the graph have reasonable proportions. 12345678 If x and y are related by a linear equation, such as y = 25x + 35, then y is said to be a linear function of x. The following is a formal definition of linear function. DEFINITION LINEAR FUNCTION ‘A linear function is a set of ordered pairs (x, y) that are related by an equation of the form340 Chapter 8__Linear Functions, Scattered Data, and Probability ‘The value of one variable in a function often depends on the value of the ‘other. For instance, the number of dollars the plumber makes depends on the number of hours worked. The variable that depends on the other is called the dependent variable. The variable it depends on is called the independent variable. The dependent variable is usually plotted on the vertical axis, as Dependent variable in the sketch, -~ 250. 200. 130 100. i Indepenct o TS In the plumber example, above, the number of hours worked cannot be negative, If you assume that the plumber would not work more than 8 hhours on any one call, the permissible values of x would be all numbers from 0 through 8. These numbers are called the domain of the function ‘The total number of dollars cen range from 35 at 0 hours worked to 235 at 8 hours worked. The numbers from 35 through 235 are called the range of the function. These sets of numbers are shown in the sketch. DEFINITION DOMAIN AND RANGE ‘The domain of a function is the set of permissible values of the independent variable. ‘The range of a function is she set of values of the dependent variable corresponding to ll values of the independent variable in the domain.81 Linear Functions 341 Objective: Given a situation from the real world in which two variables are related by a linear function, find the equation and use it to predict values of the variables. EXAMPLE For the plumber problem, above: Find the total charge for 5 hours 15 minutes. 'b. How long could the plumber work without exceeding a total bill of $1207 Think These Reasons a. The equation is y = 25x + 35. From the first part of this section. 5 hours 15 minutes is 5.25 hours. 60 minutes in an hour. y = 25(5.25) + 35 Substitute 5.25 for x y = 166.25 Do the computations. $166.25 Answer the question. b. 120 = 28x + 35 Substitute 120 for y. 85 Subtract 35 345% Divide by 25. 3 hours 24 minutes ‘Answer the question ORAL PRACTICE State the domain and range of the linear function.342 Chapter 8 Linear Functions, Scattered Data, and Probability Tell which variable is independent and which is dependent. 1. Distance J. 4 Dols K.4Galons Tine | Hours Ay EXERCISE 8-1 1. Ify=2r+3, a y when x is ~4. b. Find x when y is 45. 2. fy = -0.4r + 170, a. Find y when x is 20. b. Find x when y is 87.81 Linear Functions For Problems 3-6, sketch the graph of the linear function described. 3. Slope is positive and y-intercept is negative. 4. Slope is negative and’y-intercept is positive. 3. Domain: 2= x <7, range: 3 ~ y =6 6. Domain: 0 = x = 8, range: 1 = 59 7. House-Building Problem The cost of building @ new house depends on the number of square feet of floor space. Suppose that the builder will charge $60 per square foot, and that the lot on which the house is to be built costs $40,000. 1, Write an equation expressing total cost as a function of square feet of floor space. b. What will the total cost be for a 2500-square-foot house? ©. The new owners can afford to pay as much as $220,000 for the house and lot. What is the largest house they could build? 4. Sketch the graph of this function and show domain and range. 8. Owning a Car Problem Lisa Carr figures that it costs her 22 cents ‘a mile to drive her car, plus a fixed monthly cost of $230 for car payments, etc. So her total monthly cost for owning the car is a function of the number of miles a month she drives it a. Write an equation expressing total monthly cost in terms of ‘number of miles driven that month. b. How much will it cost Lisa if she drives 1000 miles a month? cc. Lisa can afford no more than $500 a month, total, for car expenses. About how far can she drive each month? d. Sketch the graph of this function and show domain and range. 9. Tip Money Problem Suppose that a waiter makes $40 a day, plus 70% of the tip money he receives. 1. Write an equation expressing total daily pay as a function of tip money received. 'b. How much tip money would be needed for the waiter to earn $100 in a day?” ¢. How much would the waiter make in a day if he received $57 in tip money? d. Sketch the graph of this function and show domain and range. 10. Commission Problem Suppose that an insurance agent makes $700 ‘a month base pay. In addition, she makes a commission of 8% of the value of the insurance policies she sells. a. Write an equation expressing total monthly pay as a function of ‘number of dollars worth of policies sold. b, How many dollars worth of insurance must she sell to make '$2000 in @ month? c. How many dollars will she get, total, if she sells $1 million worth of insurance in a month? 4d. Sketch the graph of this function, Show domain and range. 343,344. Chapter 8 Linear Functions, Scattered Data, and Probability 12. 3B Highway Painting Problem The Highway Department estimates, that it takes 2.3 hours to paint @ mile of center stripe on the highway. In addition, it akes about 45 minutes for the crew to get ready to paint. a. Write an equation expressing total time it will take as a function ‘of number of miles 10 be painted. b. How long will it take, total, for the crew to paint 2 miles? cc. What is the maximum number of miles a crew can paint in a day if they may speed no more than 8 hours, total, that day? 4. Sketch the graph of this linear function. Show clearly the range and domain, Elevator Cable Problem The number of feet of cable needed for an elevator in a building is 40 times the number of stories tall the building is, plus 50 feet fused to go into and out of the machinery) a, Write an equation expressing total number of feet of cable as a function of number of stories. b. How much cable would be needed for a 7-story building? ©. A reel of elevator cable contains 1000 fect of cable. What isthe tallest building that could be equipped with an elevator without having to splice together pieces of cable? 4. What is the domain of this linear function if the building codes do not allow spliced cable? (Think hard about your answet!) ©. Sketch the graph of this linear function. Use the domain in part). Corn Flakes Problem A 24-ounce box of corn flakes costs $1.95. An 18-ounce box costs oaly $1.49. Assume that the cost of a box of ‘corn flakes is a linear furction of the number of ounces in the box. a. Define variables for the number of ounces and the number of dollars. Write the given information as ordered pairs. bb. Find the slope of this linear function. cc, Use the point-slope form to write an equation for this function. d. How would you find out what they assume as the fixed cost for the box, etc.” What is this fixed cost? Haircut Problem Dan Druff shaved off all his hair some time ago. ‘At present, his hair is 6 cm long. Three weeks ago it was only 4.8 cem long. Let x be the number of weeks that have elapsed after the present, and Ict y be the number of centimeters long his hair is. a, Write the pieces of information about hair length and time as ordered pairs. You must decide in which order to write the variables. (Think carefully about the correct values of x!) Find the slope of this linear fnetion Write an equation for this function. How long ago did Dan shave off his hair? ‘Sketch the graph of sis linear function. Show the domain.82 Scattered Data and Linear Regression 345 82 SCATTERED DATA AND LINEAR REGRESSION In the last section you fitted a linear equation to two given points. If you ‘measure many data points for two variables that should be linearly related, ‘you usually find that the points are “scattered.” Figure 8-2a, below, shows the number of pushups (y) various elementary school children can do ver~ sus the number of days (x) since they started training to do pushups. Figure 8-2a Objective: Given scattered data that is linearly related, find the equation of the linear function that best fits the data, and use the equation to make predictions. A graph such as Figure 8-2a is called a seatter plot. The data may be scat tered for several reasons. First, several people are doing the pushups, 50 there may be several data points for the same day. Second, the same per- son might improve more, or not as much, one day as on the previous day. If the general trend of the data is linear it is possible to find the linear function that fits the data best. The bestfitting graph is called the regres- sion line, and its equation is called the regression equation. The process of finding the bestsitting linear function is called linear regression. In the example below you will see how you can fit a regression line to ssiven data. Cover the answers as you work the example. EXAMPLE Pushups Problem This problem relates to the data in Figure 8-2a. fa. Find the average value of x (tx) and the average value of y (y's). b. Photocopy the scatter plot in Figure 8-2a or copy it onto a piece of ‘graph paper. Draw the line you think best fits the data. This line should go through the point (tm, Yi): ‘Write an equation for the line you drew in part (b).346 Chapter 8 Linear Functions, Scattered Data, and Probability 4. Based on your equation, how many pushups would you expect a child to be able to do after 50 days? e. Based on your equation, how many days would you expect a child to have to train before being able to do 100 pushups? Use a calculator or computer that does linear regression to find the ac- tual regression equation. How close did your equation in part () come toi? B4+54+6+647+9+104 10412413 7" "Add the values. Divide by 10. a Siw 81 BANHOHSHOLOHR HEED Mark (ta), Yo) = (8-1, 5.9) with an x, Pivot your ruler back and forth around this point until as mary points as possible are as close to the line as possible. The result will approximate the line of best fi. c. y-intercept ~ 1.3 Read the graph, above. Slope ~ 7— 3 = 0,57 Draw dotted ines on the graph, ‘Equation is 0.57x + 1.3 Use y = mx + b. ay ).57(50) + 1.3 = 29.8 ‘Substitute 50 for x and compute. About 30 pushups Write a real-world answer. &. 100= 057: +13 Sulbstiate 100 for y. 98.7 = 0.5Tx Solve the equation, 173.1578... = x About 173 days. Write a real-world answer.82 Scattered Data and Linear Regression 347 f. The graph below shows what the calculator display might look like. ‘The bestfit regression equation is y = 0.5715283x + 1.270183, 0 the equation in part (c) is close to the best fit. TUSTIN bo12TOUS ‘There are actually several kinds of “averages” for any set of numbers. If ‘you add up the numbers and divide by how many numbers there are in the Set, you are finding the mean of the set. You did this to get xq and yx i this section. There are two other averages of a set of numbers in statistics, the mode and the median. The mode is the number in the set that occurs most frequently. The median is the middle number in the set—the one that is in the middle of the list when all the numbers are arranged in numerical order. OR/ L PRACTICE, For each graph: a, Tell whether or not there is a pattern in the data. b. If there is a pattern, tell whether or not the pattern is linear. c. If the pattern is linear, tell whether the slope is positive or negative. Ap BOY 0\ear Functions, Scattered Data, and Probability 348 Chapter 8 Li 10] |82. Scattered Data and Linear Regression 349 EXERCIS For Problems 1 through 6, photocopy the scatter plot or copy it on graph ‘paper. Then draw the bestfiting line through the data points and write an ‘equation for the line you have drawn. The averages of x and y are given for some sets of data. 1 ‘0350 Chapter 8 For Problems 7 through 12: a b . a. 1 i. 13. Make a scatter plot of the data. Linear Functions, Scattered Data, and Probability Find x and yin, and graph the linear function that best fits the data, ‘Write an equation for the linear function you graphed in part (b. Use a graphing calculator or computer to find by linear regression the equation of the lincar funtion that actually fits the data best. Tell how your graph in part (b) differs from the bestit graph. 8. Ee oyoox oy x yor 0 3 36 19 3 1 2 7 6 18 4 2 4 8 8 17 4 45 9 8 2 6 4 5 4 0 9 304005 zx Y zy Oe es 2 003 6 4 40 7 205 6 3 $92 47 2 4 84 > 40067 44 8 2 6 5 8 s 4 9 3 7 4° 8 ot x Ly 1x _y 2 2 O33 2 74 2-6 33 303 1-7 5 0 42 -1 -6 5 2 7 0 1-6 5 2 7 1 0 7 5 3 7 2 1-5 6 1 8-2 1-5 6 2 8 4 1-4 6 4 9-1 20-4 8 4 0-3 Me tear Sawa a 10 u ul 12 12 2 13 B 4 17 Lee Gume’s Bean Problem Lee Gume plants some beans. Let x be the number of days since a bean was planted and let y be the height ‘of the bean plant in inches. The heights of several bean plants at var- ious numbers of days are shown on the scatter plot below. HHOet14, Scattered Data and Linear Regression 351 a. Photocopy this scatter plot, or draw it on your own graph paper. b. The average values of x and y are 21 and 8.2, respectively. Draw the line that best fits the given dat. ‘What is the slope of the line you drew? ‘Write an equation of the line you drew. fe. How tall should Lee expect a bean plant to be 100 days after it is planted? Show your work. Piano Solo Problem, You decide to examine the effets of repeated practice on a person's ability to play a piano piece without mistakes. From data you collect at the local junior high school you find that various students make the numbers of mistakes shown below (y) on a ven piece on the xth practice session EY ey Ey KY 13 8i7 Bie 7 42 98 BH 19 7199 917 4 14 19 82% 9 17 15 13 21 10 819 9 17 16 12 23 6 a. On graph paper, make a scatter plot of the above data, Figure cout a good way to show repeated data. Does the data seem to be linearly related? bb. Find the average values, xa and ya. Plot the point on your graph from part (a) c. Draw the graph of the best fitting linear function, 4d. Write the equation of the bestfitting line from part (c). . Based on your equation, find out, on the average, how many imes a junior high school student would be expected to have to practice this piece in order to make rio mistakes. f. The data above were really generated by computer using random values of x and y, with the y-values picked to cluster around a given linear function. If you acwally measured mistakes versus number of practice sessions for junior high school students, in ‘what ways would you expect the data to differ from this linear data? Sports Record Problem If you examine world or Olympic records for various races such as the mile or the 100 meters, you will find that over the years the length of time has decreased. Although the data is scattered, it often seems to follow a linear trend. Suppose someboxly tied to tll you that this kind of data celly is Tinea. ‘What reasoning would you use to show that it could not possibly be moChapter 8 Linear Functions, Scattered Data, and Probability PROBABILITY In the last section you looked for patterns in data gathered in some kind of real-world experiment. From the data you reached conclusions such as “The data are linearly relatee.” In this section and the next you will study the converse of this problem, From analysis of possible outcomes of a real- world experiment, you will predict the likelihood that a certain result will cecur. This likelihood is called the probability of the result. Suppose that 20 pieces of paper are marked with the integers 1 through 20. The papers are placed in a hat and you draw one at random. You win if the mumber you draw is a prime. To find out how likely you are to win, write out all possible outcomes: 12345678910 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 ‘These are the primes in this set of numbers (note that 1 is not a prime): 2357 1B 1719 Since there are 8 successful outcomes out of the 20, and each outcome is equally likely, itis reasonable to expect that you would draw a prime roughly 8/20 of the time. This fraction, 8/20, is called the probability of drawing a prime. The act of drawing a number is called a random experi- ment. Each number that could be drawn is called an outeome of the ran- dom experiment. The desired result of a random experiment, such as “The ‘number is prime,” is called an event. The set of all successful outcomes {for the experiment is called the event space. The set ofall possible out comes, successful or not, is called the sample space. Objective: Given a description of a random experiment, calculate the probability th: a certain event will happen. Cover the answers as you work these examples. EXAMPLE 1 A piece of paper with a number between I and 20 is drawn from a hat, as described above. 4. What is the special name given to this set? {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20} b. What is the name given to this set? (2, 3, 5, 7, 11, 13, 17, 19} ‘c. What is the name of each element of the set in part (a)? d. What name is given to “The result is a prime”?83 Probability ce, What name is given to the act of drawing one of the numbers? = ratio Humber of successful outcomes 1049 f. What isthe ratio ral number of outcomes“ ‘2. What must be true of each outcome for the probability of an event to qual the ratio in part (f)? bh. What is the probability of the event “The number selected is evenly divisible by 3°? i, What is the percent probability that the number selected is evenly divis- ible by 3? Think These Reasons a, Sample space. Read the text above. b. Event space. Read the text above. ¢, Outcome. Read the text above. rent. Read the text above. ‘e, Random experiment. Read the text above. Probability of an event. Read the text above. ‘They must be equally likely. Read the text above, ‘The successful outcomes are: 3, 6,9, 12, 15, 18 These are divisible by 3. ‘There are 20 possible outcomes. Probability = 6/20 = 3/10 (number successful)/(total number) (6/20)(100) 0% Sometimes you can find the probability of an event by using geometry. ‘The next example shows you how to find a geometric probability. EXAMPLE 2 Figure 8-3a shows a square, 10 units by 10 units, on a Cartesian coordi- nate system. Inside the square is a quarter-circle of radius 10 units. If a point is picked at random inside the square, what is the probability that it is also inside the quarter-circle?354 Chapter 8 Linear Functions, Scattered Data, and Probability ‘The sample space is all points in the square. ‘The event space is all points in the quarter-circle ‘Since any point is equally likely to be picked, the probability equals the area of the quarter-circle divided by the area of the square. itty = TO) * (1/4) area of event space Probably, 10 area of sample space Simplify Write as a decimal, if desired Write as a percent, if desired. TERMS ASSOCIATED WITH PROBABILITY. Random experiment: an action in which there is no way to tell beforehand just which of several possible things will happen. Outcomes: equally likely results of a random experiment. ‘Sample space: the set of all possible outcomes for a random ex: periment. Event: a favorable outcome of a random experiment. Event space: the set of all favorable outcomes for an event. tity: Dumber of favorable outcomes Probability: — otal numberof outcomes = umber of elements in the event space ‘number of elements in the sample space83 Probability 355 The following box summarizes the difference between probability and statistis. Probability: Given information about something in the real ‘world, predict the results of a random experiment. Statistics: Given data resulting from a random experiment, pre~ dict something about the real-world situation from which the data comes. ORAL PRACTICE Find the probability for each of the following random experiments: ‘A. Pick an even number from {I 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9} B. Pick an odd number from {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.8, 9} C._ Pick a prime number from {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9}. (1 is not a prime.) D. Pick 7 from {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9}. E. Pick a single-digit number from {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7. 8. 9}. Pick a two-digit number from {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9} G. Pick an outcome in an event space with 200 elements if the sample space has 1000 elements H. Pick an outcome that cannot happen from a sample space of 10 ele- ‘ments. 1. Pick an outcome that is bound to happen from a sample space of 3000 elements. J. Draw a 2 card from a normal 52-card deck. EXERCISE 8-3 1. Number Line Problem No. 1 The diagram shows the integers 0 through 10 on a number line. oro oer or or ar arenes o 0 If an intoger is selected at random from these, find the probability that: Itis6 b. Itis4 or7. ©. Itis even. 4. Itis evenly divisible by 3. ©. Iti atleast 2 £ Tris less than 10. Itis positive. h. Ithas three digits.356 Chapter 8 Linear Funciions, s tered Data, and Probability 2. Number Line Problem No. 2. The segment shaded on the number line represents all real numbers from 0 through 10. 7 = If a number is selected at random from these, find the probability that: a. Itis 4 or more. b. Itis at most 8. cc. Itis between 5 and 7. d. It is non-negative. fe. Iti greater than 11 f.Itis between 7 and 11. g. The next lower integer is even and the next higher integer is odd. 3. Area Problem ‘The diagram below at left shows a lightly shaded rectangle of width 6 units and height 4 units. Values of x = w and y= hare picked between 0 and 6, and between 0 and 4, respec- tively. A darker rectange is drawn with width w and height h a. Ifw = 4 and h = 3, what fraction of the lighter rectangle lies within the darker rectangle? b. fan ordered pair (x, v) is selected within the lighter rectangle, ‘what is the probability that it is also in the darker rectangle? c. Iw and h are picked at random, what is the probability that w=4? What is the probability that t= 32 4d. What do you suppose the probability is that both w <4 and hs3? How does your answer to part (d) relate to the answers to parts (a) and (b)? If w and hare selected at random, what is the probability that the perimeter of the darker rectangle is no more than 14? 4. Rectangular Array Problem The diagram above at right shows ordered pairs (x, y) with integer coordinates. The values of x are 1 through 6 and the values of y are 1 through 4. An ordered pair (x, y) is selected at random.83 Probability 357 ‘What is the probability that x = 32 ‘What is the probability that y > 1? cc. Sketch the above diagram on your paper. Show the points that have x = 3nd y > 1 4d. What is the probability that a point selected at random has x23andy >I? How could you calculate the probability that x = 3 and y > 1 from the answers to parts (a) and (b) without drawing a diagram? What is the probability that x + y > 42 What is the probability that xy <7? ‘What is the probability that x = 5 or y = 2? (Be careful!) ‘Suppose that an array of dots is made as shown above, but with x and y both from 1 through 1000. What would be the probability that a dot picked at random would have x = 567 and y > 3417 ve Pre o Archery Problem An archery target is circular, with a diameter of 48 inches (sce diagram). The five concentric rings have radii of 4.8", 9.6", 14.4", 19.2", and 24”, You recall that the area of a circle is given by A= ar", where A is the area, ris the radius, and a7 = 3.14159... a. What fraction of the area of the entite target is inside the “bull’s-eye” (4.8" radius)? b. If arrows hitting the target fall at random, what is the percent probability that one will hit the bull’s-eye? c. What is the probability that an arrow hitting the target at ran~ dom will land in the darkest band, between the 14.4” radius and the 19.2" radius? 4. Ann Archer shoots a National Round for women, consisting of a total of 72 arrows. Suppose that 10 of the arrows hit the bull’s- eye. Does her actual probability of hitting the bull’s-eye agree with the random probability you calculated in part (b)? How ‘might you account for any difference between the two swers?358 Chapter 8 Linear Functions, Scattered Data, and Probability 6. The Gnat and Sereen Problem A ghat attempts to fly through a ‘window screen without hitting one of the screen wires. The wires are spaced 2 mm apart, and the gnat has a diameter of I mm. An ex panded view of the sereen and gnat is shown in the diagram. a, Sketch a diagram siowing the part of one grid square at which the gnat could aim its center and pass through the screen with- out touching a wire, b. What fraction of the area of a grid square is the area of the rectangle you drew in part (a)? If the gnat flies at the sereen at random, what is the probability that it will get through without hitting a wire? 4. What is the probability that the gnat will bit a wire? ©. Annie Cologist observes hundreds of gnats flying at the screen. About 70% of them get through it without touching a wire. Does this, result suggest that the gnats are flying at random, or that they are able to “aim” for a clear space? 7. Sample Space and Event Space Problem ‘What is the sample space for each of the following? Selecting points on the number line in Problem 1. Selecting points on the number line in Problem 2, Selecting ordered pairs in Problem 3. Selecting ordered pairs in Problem 4. Shooting arrows in Problem 5. Flying through the screen in Problem 6 ‘What is the event space for each of the following? g. Selecting an integer in Problem 1.d hh. Selecting a number in Problem 2.2, Selecting an ordered pair in Problem 3.b. Selecting an ordered pair in Problem 4. Shooting an arrow in Problem 5.c. Flying through the screen in Problem 6. 8. Comprehension Problem Show that you understand the meaning of sample space and event space by answering the following questions. a. If you try to draw a card that is hearts from a normal 52-card deck, what is the sample space? What is the event space? What is the probability of success? What is the probability of failure? b. If you flip a coin three times, it could fall in various sequences ‘of heads and tails. These ways could be listed as HTH, HHT, etc, Write all outcomes in the sample space. Write all the out- ‘comes in the event “There are at least two heads.” What is the probability that there will be at least two heads? Surprising?10. 83 Probability 359 Counting Problem In this problem you are to find the probability that a five-digit positive integer has all different digits a. What is the lowest possible positive integer? What is the highest possible? How many positive integers are in the sample space? b. How many different ways could the first digit (the digit on the left) of the positive integer be picked? . After the first digit is picked, only nine different digits remain for the second digit. In how many ways could you pick the first digit and then the second so that the two are not the same? 4d. In how many ways could you pick the third digit? In how many ‘ways could you pick the first, then the second, then the third digit so that none of the three are the same? €. Calculate the number of positive integers in the event space for the event “None of the five digits is the same.” £. What is the probability that a five-digit positive integer picked at random has no two digits the same? Lottery Problem In one state’s lottery fifty balls, numbered 1 through 50, are placed in a container and six are drawn at random. a. There are 50 different ways the first number could be picked. For each way the first number is picked, there are 49 ways the second could be picked. For each way of picking the first and second numbers, there are 48 ways to pick the third, etc. In bow ‘many different ways could all six numbers be picked? b. A winning combination is all six numbers correct (in any order). ‘Show that there are 720 outcomes in part (a) for each winning combination, cc. What is the probability of getting a winning combination? 4. How much would you have to spend to buy a $1.00 lottery ticket for every possible winning combination? If the prize is $10 mil- lion, would you come out with a profit or a loss this way? Factorial Problem In Problems 9 and 10 you encountered strings of consecutive digits multiplied together, such as 9-8-7-6 and 50-49-48 47-46-45, Such continued products are called factorials. If the first factor (or last factor) is 1, then the factorial is given a special name. For in- stance, “five factorial,” abbreviated 51, is equal t9 5-4-3 - 2-1. ‘Thus 5! = 120. (You may have seen a factorial key on your caleula- tor. It is usually marked 2!) Evaluate the following expressions: a 4b 7! co 10! ©. 60! (Use a calculator.) fiat & GbAD ‘True or false? h. 121/31 is equal to 4! i. GIA is equal to 71. i. GGY is equal to 121 K. 241/6! is equal to 23!360 Chapter 8 Linear Functions, Scattered Data, and Probability EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY In the last section you calculated the probability that the results of a ran- dom experiment would come out a particular way. In this section you will predict the probability of a certain event, then do the random experiment to sce how close the experimental results come to the predicted results, Objective: Given a description of a random experiment, calculate a probability for a certain event. Then do the experiment and compare the actual and pre- dicted results ‘Suppose you flip eight coins. Since the probability of the event “The result is heads” ls 50% for each coin, you would expect four of the eight coins 10 come up heads. But there is no guarantee that this will be the result. ‘The diagram on the left shows the theoretically expected results of doing this random experiment 100 times. The graph on the right shows actual re- sults. The number of heads is plotted horizontally, and the number of times the experiment ended with this number of heads is plotted vertically. This kind of diagram is called a bar graph or a histogram. The mumbers ‘on the horizontal axis are written in the spaces instead of at the grid lines. Of pnp perpenpenpepeny MO Pap epnp pepe of Ss vo. TItsesate Cr Theoretical ‘Actual Figure 84a ‘The two histograms show that the results of an experiment match the theo- retical results only approximately. In the following exercises you will find theoretical results, then do an experiment to find actual results,8-4 Experimental Probability 361 ORAL PRACTIC If you draw a card from a normal 52-card deck, what is the theoretical probability that: ‘A. Itis black. B. Itis an ace. CC. Itisa face card. D._ Itis a black face card. E. Itisared 10 F._Itis the 3 of spades. G.I is a joker. H. Its black or red. ‘Suppose that you randomly select 20 cards from a standard deck. Then you draw a card from those 20, record its color, and return the card to Your stack of 20. You repeat this experiment until you have drawn a total of 50 cards, getting black only 10 times. True or false: 1. The experimental probability of “black” is 10/50. J. The experimental probability of “black” is 20%. K. The experimental probability of “red” is 80%. L. There are probably fewer black cards than red among the 20. M. There are definitely fewer black cards than red among the 20. 'N. If you draw 50 times again, you will get exactly 10 blacks again. ©. If you draw 50 times again, you might get more reds than blacks. P. If you draw 50 times again, you might get all blacks. 1. Coin Flip Experiment No. 1 a. Ifa fair coin is fipped once, what is the theoretical probability that it will come up tails? b. Flip a coin 10 times. Based on your random experiment, what is the experimental probability that the coin will come up tails? €. I you are working in groups, combine the results of the 10 flips of each member of your group to find the experimental probabil- ity that a flipped coin will come up tails. 4. Combine the results of the 10 flips of all groups to find the ex- perimental probability that a flipped coin will come up tails. If there are 30 students in the class and each flipped a coin 10 times, you would expect 150 of the 300 results t0 be tails. How ‘many tails would you expect for the experiment you have just done in your class? How many tails were there actually’? f. One of the “laws” of random events is that total numbers of out- comes tend to get farther from the theoretical value as the num- ber of trials increases, but averages tend to get closer to the the- oretical value. Do your results confirm this law? Explain362 Chapter 8. Linear Functions, Scattered Data, and Probability 2. Coin Flip Experiment No. 2 If you flip a coin once, there are two equally likely outcomes: “heads” and “tails” (H and 7). If you fip it twice, there are four equally likely outcomes: HH, HT, TH, and TT. The histograms below show the number of outcomes with exactly x tails for various numbers of fips. ba pee, Eee LEER a TTsT OT2sa~ [O23 “rasa One Flip “wo Flips ‘Three Flips Four Flips If you flip the coin three times there are eight equally likely out ‘comes. Write these outcomes using H and T. Confirm that there are three outcomes that have tails exactly twice. b. If you flip the coin four times there are sixteen equally likely ‘outcomes. Write these outcomes using H and T. Explain how there can be four cifferent outcomes that have tails exactly once. ©. Flipping four coins once is equivalent to flipping one coin four times. Flip four coins and record the number of tails by darken- ing the appropriate square. on graph paper as in the diagram above. Do this experiment 16 times. How is your histogram sim- ilar to the one shown above, and how does it differ? 4. Compare your histogram with those of other students in your group or class. Are most of the histograms exactly like the theo- retical one, or do most of them differ from it? . The darker squares in each graph above show how that histogram can be constructed from the one before it. Use this pattern to construct a theoretical histogram for five flips. How many differ- ent outcomes are there? What is the probability that there will be exactly three tals? How can you calculate the total number of outcomes from the number of flips? How many different out- ‘comes would there be for 10 flips? Dice Roll Experiment No. 1 If you roll a die (singular of “dice”) there are six equally likely outcomes for the number of spots on the top face: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6. a. Since there are six equally likely outcomes, you would expect that rolling a die 0 times would give I five times, 2 five times, etc. Draw a histogram on graph paper, as in Problem 2, showing the theoretical number of I’s, 2's, ete. b. Roll a die 30 times. As you do the rolling, construct a histogram by marking an X in the appropriate column for the result of each roll, In what ways is the experimental histogram like the theoretical one in part (a), and in what ways does it differ?4 8-4 Experimental Probability Dice Roll Experiment No. 2 If you roll a pair of dice there are 36 equally likely outcomes for the numbers of spots on the top faces. For instance, the first could be 5 and the second 3. The sum of the ‘numbers is what people are usually interested in. In this problem you will investigate what actually happens when you roll 1wo dice. a. Write an ordered pair for each possible outcome. For instance, (S, 3) would represent 5 on the first die and 3 on the second die. It will help if you arrange the ordered pairs systematically. b. Figure out how many outcomes produce a total of 2, how many produce a total of 3, and so forth, all the way to a total of 12. Present the results in a histogram as in Problem 1, where x is the total and y is the number of outcomes that give this total c. If you roll a die 36 times you might “expect” cach of the 36 out- comes to occur once. (They won’t, of course, but that’s what ‘you'd expect theoretically.) Roll a pair of dice 36 times. As you 4o the rolling, construct a histogram. Use the ordered pairs from part (a) as your list of possible outcomes and mark an X in the appropriate column for the result of each roll. In what ways is the experimental histogram like the theoretical one in part (b), and in what ways does it differ? Thumbtack Experiment If you flip a thumbtack, it can land either “point up” or “point down.” » However, for a thumbtack, unlike a coin, “up” and “down” are probably not equally likely. In this problem you will try to find ex- perimentally the probability of “up” and “down” for your thumbtack. a. Before you do any flipping, write down which you think is more probabie, “up” (U) or “down” (D). If you are working in groups, compare your answers. You need not all have the same answer. Then survey the entire class. Based on your preconceived ideas, what is the probability of U? b. Flip a tack 10 times (or 10 identical tacks once). Based on this ‘one experiment, what is the probability of U? ‘c. Get the results of the 10 flips from the entire class. Record the number of U's in 10 fips by making a histogram as in Problem 2. ‘There will be eleven columns, for 0 through 10 U's. 44. Based on the histogram, which seems more likely, U or D? cc. Repeat the 10-flip experiment until it has been done a total of 100 times. You may share data with other students in the class, Extend your histogram in part (c) to include the new data. Does the added data confirm your answer to part (A) or refute it? £. By appropriate computation, calculate the experimental probabil- ity that the kind of thumbtack you have been using will land U. 363364 Chapter 8 Linear Functions, Scattered Data, and Probability 85 | CHAPTER REVIEW AND TES In this chapter you have reversed the process of graphing a line from a ‘given equation. First you found an equation for the line whose graph goes through two given points. Tken you found an equation for the line that best fits many (possibly scattered) points. That equation can be used to ‘make predictions, such as how tall a plant will be at various times after the seed is planted. The scaticred data you analyzed is typical of events that happen at random. This fact led us to look at probability, both theoret ically and experimentally. CHAPTER TEST 1. House-Building Problem Bill Ding constructs quality homes. He figures that a house built on a particular lot should be sold for $373,000 if it has a floar space of 3000 square feet. A 4000-square- foot house constructed an the same lot should be sold for $483,000, The selling price is the sum of the construction cost, at a fixed numi- ber of dollars per square foot, and the cost of the lot. a. Figure out the number of doliars per square foot it costs to con- struct the house, and the cost of the lot. Write an equation ‘or price as a function of square fect. How big a house on this lot could be sold for $1 million? 4. Zoning restrictions specify that a house on this lot can have a floor space of no less than 2000 square feet. Mr. Ding wants the selling cost to be less than $1 million. Write the domain and range. €. Sketch the graph of this linear function, showing clearly the do- main and range. 2. Scattered Data Problem Copy the scatter plot shown below onto ‘your graph paper. Draw the graph of the linear function you think best fits this data. Write an equation of this linear function. Then use ‘the equation to predict y when x is 100. Note: x» = 10.3 and Yon = 3.6.3 85 Chapter Review and Test Spilled Ice Cream Problem Chris Cross is 14 months old, and is Just learning how to walk. He zigzags across the 12-by-15-foot room shown in the figure, eventually falling down. The ice cream cone he is carrying spills either on the 9-by-12-foot rug or on the floor around the rug. a. How many square feet are in the sample space? How many square feet arc in the event space “The ice cream lands on the rug”? b. What is the probability that the ice eream will land on the rug? ¢. What is the probability that the ice cream will land on the floor? Coin Flip Experiment This problem concerns the random experi- ment of fipping a coin twice. List the four possible equally likely outcomes. Use the letters H and T. . If you do the experiment 20 times, how many times would you expect to get no heads? Exactly one head? Two heads? Present ‘your answers in a histogram on graph paper. ©. Do this experiment 20 times. As you go, record the number of hheads in a histogram on graph paper. 4. In what ways is your experimental histogram from pact (c)simi- Jar to the theoretical one from part (b), and in what ways is it different?In Chapter 1 you learned about powers and exponents. For in- stance, means five 2s multiplied together. In this chapter you will learn how to multiply and divide powers quickly by operating with their exponents. For instance, when you divide two powers that have equal bases, you can sub- tract their exponents, The result leads to a definition of negative exponents. Positive and negative exponents can be used to simplify ‘operations with very large or very small numbers by writing them in scientific notation. For example, the 8,000,000,000 neurons in a person's brain could be written as 8 x 10°, Application: 8 billion equals 8,000,000,000, which equals 8 x 10°