WEEKLY COMMODITY UPDATE

DATE –Oct 28 2019

PRECIOUS METAL WEEKLY COMMODITY OUTLOOK

Gold:-Gold price closed higher last week in further buildup to

expectations of an impending Fed rate cut. further investors plowed

into the safe haven amid currency devaluations, recession fears,
Brexit uncertainty and other tensions involving China and Iran. On
weekly basis Gold closed higher 0.92 % on COMEX & 0.47 % higher
on MCX.

``

Silver :-Silver prices closed on higher note last week which rode
the winds of a technical move to its biggest weekly gain in three
months. Silver has been the main outperformer in recent days as
under invested traders appear to pile in on both precious and
industrial optimism. On weekly basis silver closed higher 2.65% on
COMEX & 1.88 % higher on MCX.

STRATEGY

Exchange Commodity Recommendation

Prices went near to our targets of 1480 given last week, low made was 14884. Favored view for the week
COMEX Gold Oct.
is as long as 1485/1475 holds support we could see a move higher towards 1520/1530.

Prices remained in a range given last week. Favored view for the week is as long as 37800/37500 holds
MCX Gold Dec.
support we could see a move higher towards 38600/38800.

Prices didn’t moved as expected. Favored view for the week is as long as 17.70/17.40 holds support we
COMEX Silver Dec.
could see levels of 18.30/18.60

Prices didn’t moved as expected. Favored view for the week is as long as 45400/45000 holds support we
MCX Silver Dec.
could see levels of 47000/47500.

PIVOT

Exchange Commodity Close Pivot R3 R2 R1 S1 S2 S3

COMEX Gold Dec. 1507.1 1504 1561 1541 1524 1487 1467 1450
MCX Gold Dec. 38269 38236 39032
39447 38423 37855 37440 37059
COMEX Silver Dec.
18.035 17.94 19.35 18.85 18.16 17.53 17.03 16.62
MCX Silver Dec. 46306 46224 49467 48359 46725 45197 44089 43062
 ENERGY

`
WTI crude oil Prices closed higher last week as supplies tightened
and the White House signaled progress on U.S.-China trade talks.
Futures in New York rose for a fourth day. U.S. crude stockpiles fell
for the first time in six weeks, the EIA said Wednesday, while a
critical North Sea oil pipeline was briefly shut Thursday. The U.S. and
China “seem to be on the glide path” to a possible signing of phase
one of a trade deal in Chile next month, a White House adviser told.
On weekly basis Crude closed higher 5.46 % on NYMEX & 4.86 %
lower on MCX.

Natural Gas on weekly basis closed lower 1.87 % on NYMEX & 2.17
% higher on MCX. The move came As The U.S. EIA inventory build of
87 BCF places stockpiles into a surplus versus the five-year average;
withdrawals however could begin as early as the last week of
October. Despite a triple-digit inventory build and week/week
increase in production, weather rules and stronger evidence of a
colder late October potentially persisting into November drive prices
higher last week.

STRATEGY

Exchange Commodity Recommendation

Crude oil
NYMEX Prices went near to our targets of 52.40 given last week, low made was 52.71. Favored view for the
Nov.
week is long as 55.30/54.10 holds support we could see 57.70/58.50 levels.
Crude oil Prices remained in a range given last week. Favored view for the week is long as 3880/3800 holds
MCX Nov. support we could see 4080/4170 levels.

NYMEX Natural Gas Nov. Prices remained in a range given last week. Favored view for the week as long as 2.21/2.15 holds
support we could see levels of 2.41/2.47.
Prices remained in a range given last week. Favored view for the week is as long as 170/165 holds
MCX Natural Gas Nov.
support we could see levels of 181/185.

PIVOT

Exchange Commodity Close Pivot R3 R2 R1 S1 S2 S3

Crude oil
NYMEX
Nov. 56.63 55.36 59.39
62.04 56.31 53.98 51.33 49.95
Crude oil
MCX
Nov.
3993 3920 4351 4183 3982 3825 3657 3562
Natural Gas
NYMEX
Nov.
2.315 2.290 2.496 2.419 2.320 2.238 2.161 2.109
Natural Gas
MCX
Nov.
175.8 175.8 186.9 183.2 177.5 172.1 168.4 164.7

WEEKLY INVENTORY

COMMODITY 17-Oct-2019 24-Oct-2019 Change

Crude oil inventory 9.3M -1.7M -11M

Natural Gas inventory 104B 87B -17B
 BASE METALS

Base metals complex closed mostly on higher note last week As as

investors were cautious about the global economy and demand for
copper, as well as a forecast that there would be a surplus of the
red metal next year. Copper is often used a gauge of global
economic health, which has been hit by a prolonged trade war
between China and the United States, the world’s two biggest
economies. The copper market should see a surplus of 281,000
tonnes in 2020, swinging from this year’s deficit of 320,000 tonnes,
the International Copper Study Group said this week. On
Aluminium front Aluminium prices spent most of the year below
$2,000 per tonne and since mid-July have been below $1,800 per
tonne despite available stocks nearly falling to their lowest in a
decade. In addition, on-warrant aluminium stocks have not
exceeded 1 million tonnes since January.

On MCX weekly basis Zinc & Lead closed higher 2.46% & 2 %
respectively, Nickel & Copper closed higher 0.22% & 0.47 %
respectively However Aluminium Closed lower 1.31%.

STRATEGY

Exchange Commodity Recommendation

Prices met our targets of 5920 given last week. Favored view for the week is as long as 5815/5750
LME Copper
holds support we could see a move higher towards 5980/6020 zone.

MCX Copper Nov. Prices went near to our targets of 447 given last week, high made was 445. Favored view for the week
is as long as 437/434 holds support we could see a move higher towards 449/454 zone.
Prices remained in a range given last week. Favored view for the week is as long as 1160/1130 holds
MCX Nickel Nov. support we could see levels of 1230/1250.

Prices met our targets of 160 given last week. Favored view for the week is as long as 156/154 holds
MCX Lead Nov.
support we could see a move higher towards 161/163 zone.

Prices met our targets of 192 given last week. Favored view for the week is as long as 186/183 holds
MCX Zinc Nov.
support we could see a move higher towards 194/196 Zone.

Prices remained in a range given last week. Favored view for the week is as long as 130/128 holds
Aluminum
MCX support we could see a move higher towards 133/136 zone.
Nov.

PIVOT

Exchange Commodity Close Pivot R3 R2 R1 S1 S2 S3

LME Copper 5907.5 5874 6123 6029 5911 5813 5719 5658
MCX Copper Nov . 442.65 441.6 454.1 449.6 443.4 438.1 433.6 430.1
MCX Nickel Nov. 1202.1 1,195 1,297 1,261 1,211 1,166 1,130 1,101
MCX Lead Nov. 158.45 158.0 165.8 163.0 159.2 155.7 152.9 150.6
MCX Zinc Nov. 189.75 188.6 201.0 196.5 190.5 185.2 180.7 177.3
Aluminum
136.4
MCX Nov. 131.55 131.1 139.3 132.3 128.7 125.8 123.4
LME WARHOUSE INVENTORY WEEKLY CHANGE

WEEKLY LME INVENTORY

COMMODITY
18-10-2019 25-10-2019 Change

COPPER 268400 261025 -7375

ZINC 60825 58525
-2300
LEAD 69125 69250 125
ALUMINIUM 977125 966200 -10925
NICKEL 86580 76758
-9822

METALS COMMODITY REVIEW

AGRI COMMODITY REVIEW

 SOYA COMPLEX

Indian Soybean futures closed higher last week. As price

consolidate amid strong fundamentals. Soybean Processors'
Association (SOPA) cut its soybean production estimated for India
83.5 lakh tonnes from 91.5 lakh tones of its previous estimates.

Lower Crop from Argentina Providing Support at Lower levels in

global markets.

STRATEGY

Exchange Commodity Recommendation

Soya Bean. As long as 3730/3680 holds support we could see 3840/3860 levels.
NCDEX
Nov.

NCDEX RM SEED Nov. As long As 4240/4200 holds support we could see 4340/4360 levels.

NCDEX SOY OIL Nov. As long As 755/750 holds support we could see 775/780 levels.

PIVOT

Exchange Commodity Close Pivot R3 R2 R1 S1 S2 S3

Soya been
NCDEX Nov.
3780 3795 3,853 3,839 3,805 3,765 3,751 3,721
RM SEED
NCDEX Nov.
4297 4253 4,539 4,429 4,294 4,187 4,077 4,011
Soy Oil
NCDEX Nov.
765.9 763 784.7
797.0 768.1 753.6 741.3 731.9
SPICES

Jeera

Indian Jeera futures closed higher Last week As prices consolidate

after resent correction amid weak local demand. Prices continues to
be on firm track on long term basis on back of Quality deterioration
at turkey & Syria . As The harvesting season ends the arrivals are
declining.

STRATEGY

Exchange Commodity Recommendation

NCDEX Jeera Nov. As long as 16200/15900 holds support we could see 16800/17000 levels.

PIVOT

Exchange Commodity Close Pivot R3 R2 R1 S1 S2 S3

NCDEX Jeera.Nov.
16500 16392 17,023 16,777 16,482 16,253 16,007 15,868
 WEEKLY ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Date Time Event Forecast Previous

OCT 28 02:30 Pm EUR M3 Money Supply y/y 5.7% 5.7%

OCT 28 06:30 Pm
USD Goods Trade Balance -73.5B -72.8B
OCT 29 07:30 Pm
USD CB Consumer Confidence 128.2 125.1
OCT 29 07:30 Pm USD Pending Home Sales m/m 0.9% 1.6%
OCT 30 05:45 Pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 125K 135K
OCT 30 06:00 Pm USD Advance GDP q/q 1.6% 2.0%
OCT 30 08:00 Pm
USD Crude oil Inventories -1.7M
OCT 30 11:30 Pm
EUR Consumer Confidence -7 -7
OCT 30 11:30 pm
USD Federal Funds Rate <1.75% <2.00%

OCT 31 05:20 Am
JPY Prelim Industrial Production m/m 0.4% -1.2%
OCT 31 06:30 Am
CNY Manufacturing PMI 49.9 49.8
OCT 31 60:30 Am
CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI 53.7 53.7
OCT 31 TENTATIVE
JPY Monetary Policy Statement -- --
OCT 31 03:30 Pm
EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y 0.7% 0.9%
OCT 31 06:00 Pm
USD Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.1% 0.1%
OCT 31 06:00 Pm
USD Unemployment Claims 215K 212K
OCT 31 06:00 Pm
USD Personal Spending m/m 0.3% 0.4%
OCT 31 07:15 Pm
USD Chicago PMI 51.0 50.9
OCT 31 08:00 Pm
USD Natural Gas Storage 87B
NOV 01 07:15 Am
CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI 51.0 51.4
NOV 01 06:00 Pm
USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.3% 0.0%
NOV 01 06:00 Pm
USD Non-Farm Employment Change 90K 136K
NOV 01 06:00 Pm
USD Unemployment Rate 3.6% 3.5%
NOV 01 07:30 Pm
USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 49.0 47.8
 Research Desk

PRIYANK UPADHYAY +91 22 4300 8861

(AVP-RESEARCH)

VIRAT UPADHYAY +91 22 4300 8870

(RESEARCH ANALYST)

1st Floor, Merchant Chambers, Opp. Patkar Hall, 41, New Marine Lines Mumbai 400 020, INDIA
Tel: + 91 22 3300 8800, Fax: + 91 22 3300 8899 Email: commodityresearch@ssjfinance.com

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