Identification

Technology Management
Activities and Tools
Objectives
Contents

Definitions
Technological capabilities
The use of technology foresight
Identification processes at the firm level
Definition

Identification of technological
opportunities and threats
The goal is to spot technologies and
their applications to the business
Technology identification

Technology push the organization needs to

produce and market its innovations resulting
from its technological research, analysis activity
and development. While , The market –pull- the
demands for technological innovations and the
organization works to satisfy this need with
innovative solutions.
Definitions( different terms)

❑ Technology planning
❑ Technology forecasting

❑ Technology foresight

❑ Technology roadmapping

❑ Intelligence
 Technology planning

Involves assessing your

existing resources, defining
your needs, and exploring
solutions.

A successful planning process

will draw on management
support and the leadership of
a technology team made up of
a range of staff members to
provide input.
Foresight / Forecast
Technology forecasting

Technological Forecasting (TF) is concerned

with the investigation to predict new trends,
radically new technologies, and new forces
which could arise from the interplay of factors
such as new public concerns, national policies
and scientific discoveries.
Technology Foresight

Foresight methodologies seek to gather

data and make sense of it so that people
can think in different and new ways about
the future. That data might be collected
from humans or from the analysis of
documents and artefacts, or both.
Technology Road mapping
It is a flexible technique that is widely used
within industry to support strategic and long-
range planning. It provides a structured –
visualized- means for exploring and
communicating the relationships between
evolving and developing markets, products
and technologies over time.
Some different examples for Road mapping
Some different examples for Road mapping
 Some different examples for Road mapping

Technological roadmap for space development

Space Innovation Policy for Disaster Management Capabilities: a Case Study on the Nascent
Filipino Space Program (https://www.researchgate.net)
Technology Intelligence
(TI) is an activity that enables companies
to identify the technological opportunities
and threats that could affect the future
growth and survival of their business.

It aims to capture and disseminate

the technological information needed for
strategic planning and decision making.
Summary of previous Definitions

The goal is to spot technologies and their applications to the

business (opportunities and threats). The literature on
identification activities is massive and the terminology is used
interchangeably for overlapping activities such as;

• Technology intelligence
• Technology forecasting
• Technology foresight
• Technology scouting
• Technology exploration
• Strategic foresight
• Technology monitoring
• Technology scanning
Identification process

Technology auditing
Forecasting technology, market and
external environment
Identification of capabilities
Documenting and disseminating the
information
Technology auditing
❑ Purpose: Identifying and evaluating the firm’s
technological resources and capabilities as well as
assessing and ranking technologies based on
selected criteria such as:

❖ Maturity of technology
❖ Competitive position
❖ Level of competencies
Technology auditing
Steps

Identify List Rank

Based on different criteria

Maturity Competitive Level of

level position competencies
Technology auditing
How to identify?
Product technology matrix

The technologies product can be identified using a mapping technique

called “product/ technology matrix”.
 Technology auditing
An extension of these might be / market diagnostic matrix”. This kind of matrices (model)
helps to list technologies important for the company and show their link with particular
products and markets.
Various ways of listing technologies can be achieved

I. List of market
II. Identify the products in each market
III. Technologies used in producing the products are than listed
IV. Product families might be used to summarize the entire product
Classification of technology

➢ Enabling technology
➢ Key technology

➢ Pacing technology
➢ Emerging technology
Enabling technology
Base/enabling technology - It is essential to be in business
and is widely exploited by competitors, so their competitive
impact is low.

❑ Equipment and/or methodology that, alone or in

combination with associated technologies, provides
the means to generate giant leaps in performance
and capabilities of the user.

❑ For example, the coming together of

telecommunication technologies, internet, and
groupware has leveled the field so that even smaller
firms are able to compete in areas where they
otherwise could not.

http://www.businessdictionary.com/definition/enabling-technology.html
Key technology
Critical/ key technology - It is well embodied in products and
processes and their competitive impact are high.

The emerging technologies which will most profoundly

impact the human self at the intro- and extrospective
levels of description.

These are the Internet and information

communications technologies’ applications (ICTs),
artificial intelligence and robots, neuro- and
cognitive technologies, nanotechnologies,
biotechnologies.
Pacing technology
Pacing technology - It might be under
experimentation by some competitors. And if
technology succeeds, its competitive impact is
likely to be high.

Emerging technology
Emerging technology - It is at early research stage or
emerging in other industries and their competitive impact is
unknown although they expected to be tomorrows pacing
technologies
 Technology Life Cycle & Competitive Advantages

Life Cycle Importance of Technologies for Competitive Advantages

Emerging Have not yet demonstrated potential for changing the basis
Technologies of competition.

Packing Have demonstrated potential for changing the basis of

Technologies competition.

Key Are embedded in and enable product/process.

Technologies Have major impact on value-added stream.
Allow proprietary/patented positions.
Base Have minor impact on value-added stream; common to all
Technologies competitors; commodity.
Assessing the technology level of maturity
 S-curve or life cycle
assessing the maturity of technology refers to it position in S-
curve or life cycle.

The evolution of a company’s technologies follows an s-shape

distribution over time with following phase in life cycle:

Embryonic - The direction of technological advance is not clear

Growth - The major technological advance can be expected
with regular efforts
Mature - Minor technological advance would require very high
efforts
Ageing / declines- No technological advance can be expected.
 The major declines- No
technological advance technological
can be expected with advance can
regular efforts be expected
Minor
technological
The direction advance would
of technological require very
advance is not high efforts
clear
Level of competencies
Level of competencies
 What is Forecasting?
◆ Process of predicting
a future event
◆ Underlying basis
of all business
??
decisions
◆ Production
◆ Inventory
◆ Personnel
◆ Facilities
 Forecasting Approaches
Qualitative Methods
◆ Used when little data exist
◆ New products
◆ New technology
◆ Involves intuition, experience
◆ e.g., forecasting sales on
Internet
 Qualitative Methods
1. Jury of executive opinion (Pool opinions of high-
level experts, sometimes augment by statistical
models)
2. Delphi method (Panel of experts, queried iteratively
until consensus is reached)
3. Sales force composite (Estimates from individual
salespersons are reviewed for reasonableness,
then aggregated)
4. Consumer Market Survey (Ask the customer)
 Quantitative Approaches
◆ Used when situation is ‘stable’ and
historical data exist
◆ Existing products
◆ Current technology
◆ Involves mathematical techniques
◆ e.g., forecasting sales of LCD
televisions
 Quantitative Approaches

1. Naive approach
2. Moving averages
3. Exponential time-series
models
smoothing
4. Trend projection
5. Linear regression associative
model
 Time Series Forecasting

◆ Set of evenly spaced numerical data

◆ Obtained by observing response
variable at regular time periods
◆ Forecast based only on past values,
no other variables important
◆ Assumes that factors influencing past
and present will continue influence in
future
Time Series Components

Trend Cyclical

Seasonal Random
 Components of Demand
Trend
component
Demand for product or service

Seasonal peaks

Actual demand
line

Average demand
over 4 years

Random variation
| | | |
1 2 3 4
Time (years)
Figure 4.1
Forecasting technology, market
and environment
Simple tools for forecasting
STEP, PEST,SWOT
STEEPA ( social, technological,
economic, environment, political and
aesthetic)
PESTEL( political, economic, social,
environment, legal)
STEEPA ( social, technological, economic,
environment, political and aesthetic)
Linking National Foresight to Company Action

• Market and technological trends

for broad industry areas
• Priorities & policy recommendations

• Market and technological trends

for specific sectors
• Priorities & policy recommendations
• Support

• Market and technological trends

facing company
• Strategy
• Actions
Technology roadmapping
Two basic forms

1. Planning 2. Forecasting
- How to reach a goal? - What opportunities could arise?

• Market focus • Technology focus

• Assumes product market • Looking for opportunities
opportunity • Open ended
• Deterministic • Divergent
• Convergent
• Customer driven
 IDENTIFICATION OF ORGANIZATIONAL CAPABILITIES

A study in identification a capability profile indicates four

dimensions of organizational capability:
1- Facilities and equipment
2- Personnel skills,
3- organizational capabilities
4- management capabilities
Discuss:
Forecasting is possible
(advantages of forecasting)

Forecasting is NOT possible

(disadvantages of forecasting)