Professional Documents
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FINAL DRAFT
ECONOMICS
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
DECLARATION…………………………………………………………………………. 3
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT…………………………………………………………………. 4
PREFACE………………………………………………………………………………….. 5
LITERATURE REVIEW…………………………………………………………………..6
1. What is MSP?
3. Determination of MSP
IMPACT ON GDP……………………………………………………………………….15
SUGGESTIONS…………………………………………………………………………24
CONCLUSION………………………………………………………………………….25
REFERENCES………………………………………………………………………….25
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DECLARATION
I hereby declare that the project work entitled “Impact of increase in MSP and its analysis”
submitted to the Dr. Ram Manohar Lohiya National Law University, Lucknow is a record of
an original work done by me under the guidance of Dr. Mitali Tiwari, Assistant Professor
(Economics), Dr. Ram Manohar Lohiya National Law University and this project work is
submitted in the partial fulfillment of the requirements for the award of the degree of B.A.
LLB. (hons). The results embodied in this thesis have not been submitted to any other
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
I express my gratitude and deep regards to my teacher for the subject Dr. Mitali Tiwari, for
giving me such a challenging topic and also for his exemplary guidance, monitoring and
I would also like to thank the librarians of Dr. Madhu Limaye Library who extended their
assistance to me by helping me out consult the relevant books and provided me with research
material and good books to work upon and the distinguished authors, jurists and journals for
providing in the public domain such invaluable information. I also thank all of my friends and
Lastly, I thank almighty, my family and friends for their constant encouragement without which
I know that despite my best efforts some discrepancies might have crept in which I believe my
ADHIPATYA SINGH
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PREFACE
The basic objective of this study is to compile data and critically analyze the impact of
increase in MSP and the different steps taken by the government to double the farmers
income by 2022, the paper also analysis its effects on the different sectors of industries
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LITERATURE REVIEW
internal and external trade in agricultural commodities and maintaining its role of
price stabilisation can yield positive welfare benefi ts in the aggregate. If agricultural
commodity markets are spatially integrated, then producers and consumers will
realise the gains from liberalisation: the correct price signals will be transmitted
through the marketing channels, farmers will be able to specialise according to long-
term comparative advantage and the gains from trade will be realised. Spatial market
separated markets move together and price signals and information are transmitted
smoothly.
2- Vasant P. Gandhi (2008) analysis that there has been a sharp rise in the prices of
wheat and rice in India and the world, and in this scenario, managing food demand-
supply and prices has become a major concern in India. Wheat and rice marketing in
India takes place through a combination of public and private systems and there are
producers, and consumers, as well as the government and the economy. The lack of
necessary and reliable market information with various participants is a major cause
of the problem. The paper focuses on wheat and is based on a survey carried out in
seven states covering the entire marketing chain from farmers to consumers, including
traders, processors and retailers. It studies the existing marketing relationships and
seeks to identify the key decision-making and information needs of the players in the
system for wheat. The information system enabled by computers and internet will
source market information extensively from rural, and international sources, process
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it, and make it available to all the players. If implemented well, it will lead to greatly
improved and faster decisions on managing the supply, demand and prices, reduce
demand-supply mismatches, and help improve the marketing efficiency of the entire
operation.
3- Acharya (2007) observed that the official procurement operations are carried out
through regulated markets set up under APMR Act. A network of regulated markets
and Manipur, all the other states had enacted State level APMR Acts. In 2005, there
were about 7,557 regulated markets spread across various states in India. The
geographical distribution of markets was skewed towards large states: larger the size
of area, more the number of markets. States like Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra,
Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal had share of more than 50 per cent
4- World Bank (2005) analysis the direct benefits of MSPs accrued to a few states where
Haryana and Western Uttar Pradesh (accounting for 95 per cent of total wheat
procurement), and of rice in in five states: Punjab, Andhra Pradesh, Haryana, Uttar
Pradesh and Tamil Nadu ( accounting for 85-90 per cent of total procurement). The
5- Singh, Rangi and Kalra (2004) concluded that productivity of wheat in Punjab
increased by more than 5 times in five decades (1950 to 2000), area by three times
and production by more than 15 times. The increase in MSP during a period of more
than two decades, 1977-78 to 2000, was more than five times. The minimum support
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price policy played a crucial role in bringing India out from deficit to surplus position
that price intervention distorted output crop-mix. During the decade, area under wheat
had increased by 0.53 million ha. in Haryana, Punjab and Uttar Pradesh. The area
under paddy in Punjab increased from 2 million to 2.6 million hectares, presumably in
6- Another study by Karwasra, Kundu and Jain (2003) observed the impact of domestic
price policy on the production of rice and wheat. The study supported the fact that the
MSP for wheat and rice, which have been maintained reasonably high, has helped the
7- Landes and Gulati (2003), analysis two important policy changes occurred during
1990s affected incentive structure of the agriculture sector. These included domestic
agriculture sector were not included in economic reforms, but reduced levels of
industrial protection have improved the incentives in agriculture. Further, raising per
What is MSP?
Minimum Support Price (MSP) is a form of market intervention by the Government of India
to insure agricultural producers against any sharp fall in farm prices. The minimum support
prices are announced by the Government of India at the beginning of the sowing season for
certain crops on the basis of the recommendations of the Commission for Agricultural Costs
and Prices (CACP). MSP is price fixed by Government of India to protect the producer -
farmers - against excessive fall in price during bumper production years. The minimum
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support prices are a guarantee price for their produce from the Government. The major
objectives are to support the farmers from distress sales and to procure food grains for public
distribution. In case the market price for the commodity falls below the announced minimum
price due to bumper production and glut in the market, government agencies purchase the
The Price Support Policy of the Government is directed at providing insurance to agricultural
producers against any sharp fall in farm prices. The minimum guaranteed prices are fixed to
set a floor below which market prices cannot fall. Till the mid 1970s, Government announced
Procurement Prices.
The MSPs served as the floor prices and were fixed by the Government in the nature of a
long-term guarantee for investment decisions of producers, with the assurance that prices of
their commodities would not be allowed to fall below the level fixed by the Government,
even in the case of a bumper crop. Procurement prices were the prices of kharif and rabi
cereals at which the grain was to be domestically procured by public agencies (like the FCI)
for release through PDS. It was announced soon after harvest began. Normally procurement
price was lower than the open market price and higher than the MSP. This policy of two
official prices being announced continued with some variation upto 1973-74, in the case of
paddy. In the case of wheat it was discontinued in 1969 and then revived in 1974-75 for one
year only. Since there were too many demands for stepping up the MSP, in 1975-76, the
present system was evolved in which only one set of prices was announced for paddy (and
other kharif crops) and wheat being procured for buffer stock operations.
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Determination of MSP
In formulating the recommendations in respect of the level of minimum support prices and
other non-price measures, the Commission takes into account, apart from a comprehensive
Cost of production
The Commission makes use of both micro-level data and aggregates at the level of district,
state and the country. The information/data used by the Commission, inter-alia include the
following:1
1
Farmer Portal
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Cost of cultivation per hectare and structure of costs in various regions of the country and
Cost of production per quintal in various regions of the country and changes therein;
Prices of commodities sold by the farmers and of those purchased by them and changes
therein;
Supply related information - area, yield and production, imports, exports and domestic
Demand related information - total and per capita consumption, trends and capacity of the
processing industry;
Prices in the international market and changes therein, demand and supply situation in the
world market;
Prices of the derivatives of the farm products such as sugar, jaggery, jute goods, edible/non-
Macro-economic variables such as general level of prices, consumer price indices and those
Crops Covered
Government announces minimum support prices (MSPs) for 22 mandated crops and fair and
remunerative price (FRP) for sugarcane. The mandated crops are 14 crops of the kharif
season, 6 rabi crops and two other commercial crops. In addition, the MSPs of toria and de-
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husked coconut are fixed on the basis of the MSPs of rapeseed/mustard and copra,
Cereals (7) - paddy, wheat, barley, jowar, bajra, maize and ragi.
Raw cotton.
Raw jute.
Copra.
De-husked coconut.
Sugarcane.
Giving a boost to farmers’ income, the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs chaired by
the Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi has approved the increase in the Minimum Support
Prices (MSPs) for all Rabi crops for 2018-19 to be marketed in 2019-20 season. The farmer
friendly initiative will give additional return to the farmers of Rs 62,635 crore by way of
increasing MSP of notified crops to at least 50 per cent return over cost of production and
The Minimum Support Prices for all rabi crops of 2018-19 season to be marketed in 2019-20
is as follows3:
2
Union Budget Portal
3
Press Information Bureau Government of India Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare.
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MSP MSP
Cost of production Increase in MSP Return over
2017-18 2018-19 cost*
Crop
(Rs/ (Rs/ 2018-19 (Rs/quintal)
Absolute % (in per cent)
quintal) quintal)
Wheat 1735 1840 866 105 6.1 112.5
Barley 1410 1440 860 30 2.1 67.4
Gram 4400 4620 2637 220 5.0 75.2
Masur (Lentil) 4250 4475 2532 225 5.3 76.7
Rapeseed &
4000 4200 2212 200 5.0 89.9
Mustard
Safflower 4100 4945 3294 845 20.6 50.1
Giving a major boost for the farmers’ income, the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs
chaired by Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi has approved the increase in the Minimum
Support Prices (MSPs) for all kharif crops for 2018-19 Season.
The decision of the CCEA is a historic one as it redeems the promise of the pre-determined
principle of fixing the MSPs at a level of at least 150 percent of the cost of production
announced by the Union Budget for 2018-19. The Commission for Agricultural Costs and
Prices (CACP) has recommended MSPs for all kharif crops broadly in line with the announced
principle.
The Minimum Support Prices (MSPs) for all kharif crops of 2018-19 season have been
increased as follows:
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(Rs/quintal)
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Sunflower - 4100 5388 1288 31.42 50.01
Seed
Impact on GDP
4
Government's decision to hike MSP for kharif crops is expected to impact GDP by 0.1-0.2
According to the global financial services major, higher MSPs carry inflation as well as fiscal
costs.
4
DBS report
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5
"For the fiscal math, impact is likely to be in the tune of 0.1-0.2 per cent of GDP, which
might necessitate higher revenue support or lower capex spending to limit any risk to the
The move is expected to lead to higher inflation and widen fiscal deficit because of increase
in food subsidy bill to over Rs 2 trillion from Rs 1.70 trillion provided in the Budget for
Analysts and economists have warned the move could help push up inflation, add to the fiscal
deficit and prompt India’s central to raise interest rates more steeply than expected:
6
“Most of the wholesale prices are higher than the mininum support price (MSP). How that
translates into market prices will be a function of how exactly the implementation of these
MSPs would be. At this point, it is a little difficult to gauge exact impact on inflation. It
“There has been a lot of farm distress and measures have been taken to alleviate these
problems, this being one of them. This move was something that was necessary, but needs to
be implemented in the right way to ensure they get what they need, to be able to cover up for
the costs.”
7“The Rs200 per quintal hike for paddy is very reasonable, so not likely to rattle markets. If
the number was anything beyond Rs200, there could have been some market implication. The
hike will add about a 25 basis point number to headline inflation, which the government
would be okay with. I think this hike should not have too much of a negative impact.”
5
DBS research report
6
Upasna Bhardwaj, senior economist, Kotak Mahindra Bank
7
Tirthankar Patnaik, India strategist, Mizuho Bank
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“The hike in ragi crop was higher than expected. A larger hike in paddy would have moved
the needle. So, this is a negative, but not an unexpected negative from a fiscal balance
perspective. It is quite clear it was a question between keeping the farmer community happy
in the pre-election year and also not to upset the credit rating agencies. With this hike for
“We may see these populist measures coming from the state governments instead of federal
government. I’ll not be surprised if we see similar sops from the state government simply
because the current GST collection, crude at over $70 does not leave much room for fiscal
8
“The median hike from the minimum support prices (MSPs) is 25% compared with 3-4% in
the last three years. The impact from these MSP hikes will be 35 basis points to headline
inflation in the current fiscal year, and another 35 bps in the next. MSP hike is broadly along
expected lines, and as such, may not accentuate concerns for the Reserve Bank of India on
this account.
“However, a larger concern emanates from continued elevated prices of crude oil. We
maintain a risk of one more hike of 25 bps by October. We don’t see any material risk on
fiscal as the impact is at a manageable level of 0.1% of GDP. In every preceding election
year the MSP hikes have been high, like it was 40% in 2009, 27% in 2013 and 25% in 2018.
This will help in boosting farmer income and potentially offset the adverse impact of high oil
prices on growth.”
8
Shubhada Rao, chief economist, Yes Bank, Mumbai
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Impact on various industrial sectors
Automobiles
A hike in MSP does not immediately have an impact on automobile companies. However,
correct implementation of the MSP hike will put more money in the hands of farmers. This
translates into higher spending towards buying two wheelers (specifically motorcycles, half
of which are sold in rural areas) and agricultural equipment. This augurs well for the
following automobiles companies whose sales are largely dependent on rural economy.
Higher MSP augurs well for the farmers as it increases their purchasing capacity. This would
result into increase in demand for fertilizers and other agro-inputs like pesticides, herbicides,
insecticides, animal feed and others. The farmers would aim to increase productivity and
The government’s decision to hike MSP for various crops will lead to an improvement in
the economic activity of the farmers. The rural income would increase owing to the higher
MSP, which will boost consumption. The vehicle finance industry would witness a
Textiles
Increase in the cotton MSPs may impact textile exporters. This is expected to reduce
competitiveness of Indian players in foreign markets. Further, pricing pressure may also
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affect the margins of the exporters like Trident Ltd, Himatsingka Seide, etc. However,
Further, we may see fabric companies to increase the blending of polyester with cotton.
We expect Ganesha Echosphere and Bombay Dyeing to benefit from increase in the cotton
prices. Further, owing to volatility in cotton prices, key players like Vardhman Textiles
The government is not able to provide the required price and the system that dolls out the
Swaminathan committee in its report provided proper measures and system which are
1. A2: Swaminathan committee covered all the types of cash expenditure under the A2 to
generate the crop. In it, things like seeds, manure, chemicals, labour costs, fuel costs
2. FL: Under the FL, the Swaminathan Committee added the estimated cost of work to the total
3. C2: Under C2, the estimated land rent and the cost of interest on the money taken for farming
At present, the Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP), adds both A2 and FL
The government ads 50 per cent of the value obtained by adding A2 and FL only to fix the
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But farmers say they should be given MSP after adding 50 per cent to the cost under C2.
And thus, there is a large difference between the MSP sought by the farmers and the MSP
Still, if recommendations of the Swaminathan Committee are made the basis, farmers will not
Apart from this, if the advantages of this MSP are discussed, only six per cent of the country's
farmers will get the benefits (because the other 94 per cent are either landless farmers or hold
very small land) and that too will not suffice for the crop value.
And that is because the government only buys as much as 25 per cent of the grain produced
in the country at the rate of MSP, while the rest of the remaining crop (75 per cent) is sold at
In 2017-18, about 111 million tonnes of rice was produced in the country
Of these, only 25.3 million tonnes of rice was purchased by the government
The rest of the rice was sold on the basis of market prices
In such a situation, after the ignorance in deciding the MSP, there are so many flaws in the
implementation process that the farmers are unable to receive the value of their time, labour
case
The Budget for 2018-19 had indicated that a paradigm shift in the agricultural policies is needed
to achieve the objective of doubling farmers' income by 2022 through greater emphasis on
generating higher incomes of farmers. The increase in the MSPs of Nigerseed at Rs.1827 per
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quintal, moong by Rs.1400 per quintal, sunflower seed by Rs.1288 per quintal and cotton by
Amongst cereals and nutri cereals, in terms of absolute increase, MSP of paddy (common) has
been raised by Rs 200 per quintal, jowar (hybrid) by Rs 730 per quintal and ragi by Rs 997 per
quintal. The highest percentage increase in MSP over the previous year is for ragi (52.47 %)
followed by jowar hybrid (42.94%). For pulses, apart from Moong, MSP of arhar (tur) has been
raised by Rs 225 per quintal yielding a return over cost by 65.36 per cent and urad by Rs 200
per quintal with a return over cost by 62.89 per cent in order to maintain inter-crop-price parity.
Similarly, the MSP of Bajra has been raised by Rs.525 per quintal yielding a return of 96.97
Promoting cultivation of pulses can help India overcome nutrition insecurity, improve soil
fertility by nitrogen fixation and provide income support to farmers. Thus, increased MSPs for
pulses will give a price signal to farmers to increase acreage. Further enhanced MSPs would
boost production of oilseeds and encourage investment in its productivity and help reduce
India's import bill. Increase in MSPs of nutri-cereals will improve nutritional security and allow
Food Corporation of India (FCI) and other designated State Agencies would continue to provide
price support to the farmers in the case of cereals including nutri-cereals. National Agricultural
Cooperative Marketing Federation of India Limited (NAFED), FCI, Small Farmers Agri -
Business Consortium (SFAC) and other designated Central Agencies would continue to
undertake procurement of pulses and oilseeds. Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) will be the
central nodal agency for undertaking price support operations for Cotton.
Other intiatives
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Besides increase in Minimum Support Prices (MSP) of kharif crops, Government has also taken
• The premium rates to be paid by farmers are very low - 2 % of sum insured for all kharif
crops, 1.5% for all rabi crops and 5 % for commercial and horticulture crops under smart
technology through phones & remote sensing for quick estimation and early settlement
of claims. The Government has also launched a Mobile App "Crop Insurance" which will
help farmers to find out complete details about insurance cover available in their area and
• The Government has also launched a scheme to develop a pan India electronic trading
platform under 'National Agriculture Market' (NAM) aiming to integrate 585 regulated
markets with the common e-market platform in order to facilitate better price discovery
and ensure remunerative prices to farmers. Each State is being encouraged to undertake
three major reforms - allow electronic trading, have a single license valid throughout the
State and a single entry point market fee. It will also enable farmers to discover better
prices for their produce. As on 23rd March, 2018, 585 markets in 16 States and 2 Union
• Government has also formulated a new model Agricultural Produce and Livestock
Marketing (Promotion & Facilitation) Act, 2017 to provide farmers market options
• Soil Health Cards are being issued to farmers across the country. These will be renewed
every two years. The card provides information on fertility status of soil and a soil test
based advisory on use of fertilizers. As on 25th June, 2018, 15.14 crore Soil Health Cards
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• Under Paramparagat Krishi Vikas Yojana (PKVY), the Government is promoting
• The Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchai Yojana is being implemented with the vision of
extending the coverage of irrigation 'Har Khet ko Pani' and improving water use
efficiency 'Per Drop More Crop ' in a focused manner with end to end solution on source
wheat, coarse grains and pulses under the National Food Security Mission.
• A dedicated online interface e-Krishi Samvad provides direct and effective solutions to
Organisations (FPQs) for helping farmers aggregate their needs of inputs, farm services,
• Government has set up a buffer stock of pulses and domestic procurement of pulses is
also being done under Price Stabilization Fund (PSF) mainly with a view to protect
consumers. The Budget for 2018-19 indicated that increasing MSP. is not adequate and
it is more important that farmers should get full benefit of the announced MSP. For this,
it is essential that if price of the agriculture produce market is less than MSP, then
Government should purchase either at MSP or work in a manner to provide MSP for the
farmers through some other mechanism. NITI Aayog, in consultation with Central and
State Governments, will put in place a fool-proof mechanism so that farmers will get
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• A handbook for women farmers 'Farm Women Friendly Hand Book' containing
special provisions and package of assistance which women farmers can claim under
With the above measures taken, the Government has set a target to double the farmers'
Income by 2022.
Suggestions
The current system of fixing the MSP is problematic to the government as well as the farmers
so here are 3 options of systems which can be used for the fixation of MSP.
The schemes are market assurance scheme, a price-deficiency procurement scheme and a
The market assurance scheme proposes procurement by States and compensation of losses up
to certain extent of MSP after the procurement and price realisation out of sale of the
procured produce.
price deficiency procurement scheme, if the sale price is below a modal price then the
farmers may be compensated to the difference between MSP and actual price subject, which
Under the third option, procurement would be done by private entrepreneurs at MSP and the
government would provide some policy and tax incentives to these entrepreneurs.
Conclusion
In my view, the increase in the Minimum Support Price (MSP) has more advantages than dis-
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stabilising the economy. This will mainly help reduce the burden on financial institutions as
banks are mainly run of funds procured by the public at large. The produce purchased by the
government can also be sold at fair price shops to people below poverty line. This will help
reduce though not completely but partially the burden on the government in respect of
REFERENCES
Shodhganga
Vikaspedia
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