Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Forecasting Exercise in POM
Forecasting Exercise in POM
values in a period.
Lemon Grass Rice Cakes Naïve SMA, n WMA, Wi ES, α Linear Trend
Period Price Number Sold F /e/ F /e/ F /e/ F /e/ x2 y2 xy
1 2.70 760
2 3.50 510
3 2.00 980
4 4.20 250
5 3.10 320
6 4.05 480
MAD
Sum
Using the data, forecast the sales for the next period with Naïve method, a 2-period moving average, a 2-
period moving average with weights of 0.6 for the recent period and 0.4 for the next forecast period, and
compute the forecast in exponential smoothing with an initial forecast for rice cakes sold of 300 and α =
0.5. What MAD results from using these approaches to forecasting give the better results?
Using the data, how many lemon grass rice cakes would be forecast to be sold according to simple linear
regression if the price per cake were P2.80?
The following are number of lemon grass rice cakes sold and over the six different price values in a period.
Lemon Grass Rice Cakes Naïve SMA, n WMA, Wi ES, α Linear Trend
Period Price Number Sold F /e/ F /e/ F /e/ F /e/ x2 y2 xy
1 2.70 760
2 3.50 510
3 2.00 980
4 4.20 250
5 3.10 320
6 4.05 480
MAD
Sum
Using the data, forecast the sales for the next period with Naïve method, a 2-period moving average, a 2-
period moving average with weights of 0.6 for the recent period and 0.4 for the next forecast period, and
compute the forecast in exponential smoothing with an initial forecast for rice cakes sold of 300 and α =
0.5. What MAD results from using these approaches to forecasting give the better results?
Using the data, how many lemon grass rice cakes would be forecast to be sold according to simple linear
regression if the price per cake were P2.80?