Noticeable Points from Prashant Jain

● He observes that in India Inflation is around 4-5% in last few years and this is happeneing for
the first time in last 2-3 decades. (implying what?)
● Salary for white collar job has not increased in real terms compared to blue collar job
o "What is ailing consumption is that white collar salaries have degrown at the rate 2%
pa in real terms since 2004."
● India not created enough white collar jobs
● Last 10 years consumption comes from EMI culture (Bajaj finance benefitted)
● Corporate tax rate deduction – a game changer:
o Ship building in this world historically has been shifting to countries with low wage
rate. Currently China is the largest ship manufacturer.
o In last few years some companies leaving China (bcz of anything political issue or
rising wage rate) are not coming to India, despite of having low wage rate. The
reason was high tax rate.
o So now since tax rate has been reduced; he was positive on this front
● He believes the next growth in India will be led by global companies (companies having
global presence along with India) rather than India centric companies.
● Problem in car market is affordability, backed by his white collar job theory talked earlier.
Aspiration to have a car is still there.
● Two wheeler market in India is a mature market
● Real estate in India is suffering from issues of affordability. In Mumbai rental yield is 2%
whereas mortgage rate is 8% which means EMI is 3-4x of rent.
o 80% of Germany is on rent!
● Mr.Jain mentioned marshmallow test to say those who resist current momentum and move
to patience in beaten down scrips will make more meaningful returns.
● 'Everyone likes to talk about outliers, not averages. Outliers dictate the narrative." Media
focuses more on outliers but achieving average for a long time is in itself great.

Noticeable points from Utpal Seth:

● He majorly talked about “Mega Trends”.

o Named a book on Mega Trends written by John Naisbitt
o In case of investments which have the megatrend and leadership qualities, we do
not sell on high valuations as long as the qualities remain intact.
o Key is to be able to distinguish between structural changes and cyclical changes and
the Mega trend need to have scalability
● Portfolio management Tips for megatrends:-
o Focus on 3-4 mega trends where you have conviction In each mega trend
o focus on 2-3 players with leadership attributes Have high concentration in portfolio
to reflect conviction in Mega Trends & Leadership
● Some of the mega trends that he observes and find playing currently is :
o Woman in workforce
o Financial deepening
o Digital Transformation
 o Unorganised to organised …..etc
● He also talked about desirable leadership attributes in a company:
o Delta market share (Market share of incremental sale)
o Least cost player
o Share of profit or cash flow pool of that sector
o Leadership durability
o Expanding addressable market
o Leadership in new segment …..etc
● Economic cycles amplify leadership
● Economic cycle duration is shrinking
● My state of mind is my most important asset. Taking up misaligned capital messes up with
your mind. We can not afford to do that.

Noticeable points from Shankaran Naren (CIO) – ICICI: ​I found his presentation most interesting

● Investing is all about – Buying – Sizing – Selling

o More time should be putting on sizing and switching
o Selling should be replaced by switching in comparison to the next best alternatives
● VCTS Investment Framework of S Naren
o Valuation. Cycle. Trigger. Sentiment.
o Trigger is the hardest one to know. If others are in place, you have to act.
● Mr. Naren mainly advocated looking at market with the lense of cyclicity
o Cycle is how others behave
● He supported views of ‘Anthony Bolton’ that investors should look at chart before buying
and seeling; to know what others think
o Anthony Bolton is one of the UK's best known investment fund managers and most
successful investors, having managed the Fidelity Special Situations fund from
December 1979 to December 2007.
● The ability of keeping cash and deploying cash at the right time is The Most Important Thing.
o He mentioned some of the buying event by Buffet when whole market was fallen
but he had cash to buy
● Market cap signals topping … but not always
o Once DLF Mkt cap was higher than entire pharma sector
o In past 2 pharma companies (Lupin & Sun) combined mkt cap was more than entire
metal sector
o Now HUL’s mkt cap is higher than top 10 pharma shares…. But will this work in case
of HUL…. Not always
● Seemed positive on PSU power companies (OIL, GAS, etc)
● Mr. Naren recommends that all investors and aspiring investors should read this speech by
Mark Sellers.
o Link of above mentioned speech :
https://moiglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/mark-sellers_you-want-to-be-the-next-
warren-buffett.pdf

● His favourite four:

o James Montier (10 tenets of investing)
o Howard Marks
o Michael Mauboussin
o Atul Gawande