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MOMENTUM PICK
New recommendations
Open Recommendations
Date Scrip I-Direct Code Action Initiation Range Target Stoploss Duration
26-Aug-19 Nifty NIFTY Buy 10840-10862 10877.0/10905.00 10,824.00 Intraday Gladiator Stocks
26-Aug-19 SBI STABAN Buy 272.00-273.00 274.90/277.00 269.90 Intraday
26-Aug-19 Ashok Leyland ASHLEY Buy 60.50-61.20 61.60/62.30 60.10 Intraday
Lal PathLabs Buy
23-Aug-19 M&M Financial MAHFIN Buy 308.00-312.00 338.00 294.00 14 Days Supreme Industries Buy
Symphony Buy
Duration: 6 Months
Open recommendations
Date Scrip I-Direct Code Action Initiation Range Target Stoploss Duration
Click here to know more…
6-Aug-19 Dabur India DABIND Buy 432.00-438.00 463.00 415.00 14 Days
Intraday recommendations are for current month futures. Positional recommendations are in cash segment
Research Analysts
Dharmesh Shah Nitin Kunte, CMT Ninad Tamhanekar, CMT
dharmesh.shah@icicisecurities.com nitin.kunte@icicisecurities.com ninad.tamhanekar@icicisecurities.com
PICK
Equity benchmarks extended their profit booking over a second From To From To (%)
10699.60 10862.55 10637.15 10829.35
Pick
consecutive week as the Nifty dropped 218 points or 2% to shut shop
for the week at 10829. Broader markets relatively underperformed as Jun'09 Jul'09 4693 3918 17
MOMENTUM
Nifty midcap small cap lost 3%, 4%, respectively. Jan'10 May'10 5310 4675 12
Momentum
Technical Outlook Nov'10 Dec'11 6338 4531 29
• The weekly price action formed a bear candle with a long lower
shadow, as supportive efforts emerged from key support of 10600
Feb'12 May'12 5629 4770 15
• In Friday’s session, despite a gap down opening, the index May'13 Aug'13 6229 5118 18
recovered 225 points from the day’s low (10637) with buying
Mar'15 Feb'16 9119 6825 25
emerging in heavyweights across sectors as it bounced from
oversold territory of daily stochastic oscillator (at 9) underpinned Sep'16 Dec'16 8968 7893 12
by positive divergence on RSI oscillator, indicating dwindling Jan'18 Mar'18 11171 9952 11
downward momentum
• We believe the index is approaching maturity of its price, time wise Sep'18 Oct'18 11760 10005 15
correction, making us confident on expecting the index to hold last Jun'19 Aug'19 12103 10637 12
week’s panic low (10637) on closing basis despite global volatility
and gradually head towards 11200 in coming weeks as its: Average excluding 2010 and 2015 14
38.2% retracement of entire decline since all time high
Technical Outlook Bank Nifty Index – Daily Candlestick Chart Nifty Bank daily change
The Bank Nifty witnessed profit booking for a second Open High Low Close Indices Close Change Change%
MOMENTUM PICK
consecutive week and ended more than 4% lower amid
26835.35 27207.30 26560.60 26958.65 Nifty Bank 26958.65 -75.55 -0.28
slowdown concerns.. The Bank Nifty ended the week at 26958,
down by 1258 points or 4.5%. 31783
Technical Outlook
• The weekly price action formed a sizable bear candle with a Nifty Bank Technical Picture
lower shadow, as supportive efforts emerged from the
vicinity of key support placed around 26500 Intraday Short term
• The index, on Friday, after a gap down opening witnessed a Trend
sharp recovery of almost 400 points with buying seen in
Support 26950-26800 26500
index heavyweights from the oversold territory indicating
dwindling downward momentum Resistance 27270-27400 28500
• Going ahead, we expect the index to hold last week’s panic 20 day EMA 28222
low (26560) on a closing basis and gradually head towards
28500 in coming weeks as it is the confluence of: 200 day EMA 28735
the 200 days SMA placed at 28500 levels
the high of last three weeks placed around 28500 26560
MOMENTUM PICK
Thrusting line like candlestick on daily charts CMP 271.90
suggest further upsides in coming sessions
Action Buy
Target 274.90/277.00
Action Buy
Target 61.60/62.30
Buy M&M Financial Services (MAHFIN) in the range of 308.00-312.00 Target: 338.00 Stop Loss: 294.00 Technical Observations
Weekly Bar Chart The stock is consolidating at the 80% retracement of • In the last four weeks, the stock has
MOMENTUM PICK
534
the previous rally | 244 to | 534 been forming consolidation base
near the major support area of |
295-300 being the 80% retracement
of the entire rally of CY 2017-2018 (|
442 244 to 534). We expect the current
consolidation is approaching
38.2% maturity so offers fresh entry
retracement opportunity to ride the up move in
@ 340 the short term
• During the last four weeks of
342 consolidation, the stock has been
forming higher high and higher low
and the recent consolidation is
supported by strong volume
80% retracement of previous signalling larger participation at the
rally | 244 to 534 support area
• Structurally, the stock has already
Buy Dabur India (DABIND) in the range of 432.00-438.00 Target: 463.00 Stop Loss: 415.00 Technical Observations
Weekly Bar Chart The stock has generated a bullish Flag breakout signalling a resumption of up move • The stock has registered a resolute
MOMENTUM PICK
thus providing fresh entry opportunity breakout above the falling trendline
490 80% joining the high of August 2018 (|
retracement @ 490) and February 2019 (| 464)
464 464 signalling a reversal of the
corrective trend and offers fresh
entry opportunity to ride the next up
move in the stock
• Structurally, the stock is in a strong
up trend. During May 2019, it
rebounded taking support near its
November 2019 low (| 363), thus
forming a potential double bottom
at the 61.8% retracement of the
entire up move of CY17-18 (| 265-
362 490)
Potential double bottom at the 61.8% • The share price has immediate
retracement of the 2017-2018 rally support at | 415 as it is the 38.2%
MOMENTUM PICK
Change Change Change Change Hong Kong -3.8
-3.4
Currency Brazil -2.1
-2.3
India -1.7
USD INR 0.6
71.7 0.2 -0.7 -3.8 -2.3
Japan -1.6
-2.3
Dollar Index -1.0
97.7 0.1 -0.7 -0.3 0.1 US -2.4
EURO USD UK -0.31
1.1 0.0 0.6 0.1 -0.5 -0.5
Germany -1.2 0.4
GBP USD
1.2 0.0 1.2 -0.9 -3.2 France 0.5
-1.1
JPY China 0.5
105.2 0.1 1.3 3.3 4.1 0.5
Swiss Franc -4.9 -2.9 -0.9 1.1 3.1
1.0 -0.1 0.7 1.8 2.9 % Change
Commodities ($) 5 Day Change 1 Day Change
MOMENTUM PICK
Change Change Change Change
Sensex
36,701.2 0.6 -1.7 -3.1 -6.9 510 373
Nifty
10,829.4 0.8 -2.0 -4.0 -8.6 10
BSE Auto
Rs Crore
15,728.0 1.5 -0.1 -2.8 -17.5 -490 -306
Bankex -771
30,444.2 -0.3 -4.5 -8.1 -13.5 -990 -903
Capital Goods
16,446.9 -0.2 -2.9 -7.5 -16.4 -1,490
Consumer
-1,737
Durables 22,821.0 1.0 1.0 -0.5 -5.9 -1,990
19-Aug 20-Aug 21-Aug 22-Aug 23-Aug
FMCG
10,706.4 -0.8 -2.5 -3.7 -7.4 Date
MOMENTUM PICK
Zee Ent Yes Bank BPCL ONGC Scrip Name Close
6.7% Ltd 6.5% 5.2% 5.2% 4.5% % SMA ( %) Divis Laboratories 1572.00 89.5
GRASIM INDS 719.5 122.8 533.3 188.0 India Bulls 467.9 Supreme Industries 1131.95 2.91 1080.88 83.66 Infosys 802.20 83.1
IOC M&M Coal India
LTD 4.5% 4.2% 4.2% 4.0% Hsg Fin 3.8% Knsai nerolac 473.65 0.14 451.36 65.39 PVR 1491.00 83.4
345.3 118.5 427.8 Bank of 93.5 Tata 111.1 TCS 2247.70 1.43 2194.35 52.37
Tata Steel NTPC Sun Pharma Oversold Stocks
3.5% 3.3% 3.2% Baroda 3.1% Motors 3.1%
BAJAJ M&M Financial services 311.95 2.13 305.76 39.41
Scrip Name LTP Stochastic
124.4 1,275.9 180.3 Tata 54.5 6,884.6
GAIL RIL Hindalco FINSERV Ambuja Cement 197.30 5.1
3.1% 2.3% 2.1% power 2.1% 1.7%
LT
TITAN CO Bharti ITC 236.00 5.4
2,043.8 2,247.7 349.4 1,073.5 356.4
HDFC Ltd TCS Adani Ports Negative Trend Universe: NSE 500
1.5% 1.4% 1.2% LTD 1.1% Airtel 1.0% SBIN 271.00 14.9
271.1 802.2 1,087.0 6,254.4 Asian 1,580.4 Change 20-day Delivery
SBI Infosys HCL Tech Maruti Scrip Name Close 52 Weeks High
Paints % SMA (%)
0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6%
Scrip Name LTP
3,861.8 2,640.2 663.9 465.9 1,468.8 PTC India 57.35 -1.21 57.55 58.49
Ultratech Hero Moto Axis Bank Cipla ACC Den 98
0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% Kajaria Ceramic 466.30 -1.19 475.60 54.54
Glaxo consumer 8149
MOMENTUM PICK
27399
26952 over the week amid fears over
26617 26696 trade tensions between US and
China. DJIA lost 1% and ended at
25629
• The weekly price action formed a
small bear candle with upper
24680
shadow, indicating stiff resistance
near last weeks high (26427)
23345
Weekly Stochastic trading sideways, • Going ahead, index need to
21712 indicating prolonged consolidation sustain above 25300 as holding
above the same would lead index
to consolidate in the last three
weeks trading range (26415 –
25340), else extended correction
towards 78.6% retracement of
June-July rally (24680 – 27399),
placed at 25266
MOMENTUM PICK
weeks decline and ended the week
31521 on a positive note by gaining 1.73%
at 26179
30280
• The weekly price action formed a
29007
small bull candle carrying higher
high-low as index witnessed follow
through strength to last weeks
26672 hammer like candle as buying
demand emerged from long term
24897 downward sloping regression trend
Weekly Stochastic recorded bullish crossover, indicating impending breather
line (as shown in chart), placed at
25275 coinciding with 78.6%
retracement of last major up move
(24540 – 30280), at 25770
• Going ahead, we expect index to
witness pullback towards 27450 in
coming weeks as it is 61.8%
MOMENTUM PICK
safe haven as US and China escalated
trade war tensions. Gold prices settled
around $ 1536/ounce, up by around
1% for the week
1375 1365 1350 • The weekly price action formed a
small bull candle as entire week’s
trade remained enclosed within prior
week’s high-low range ($1546-1480)
indicating breather with positive bias.
1270 Going ahead bias would remain
positive as long as prices sustain
above last week’s low of $1480 for
1160 target of $1550-1560 which is the
1123 price parity of the previous major up
move ($1285-1450) as projected from
July 2019 trough of $1396
• Only breach below $1480 would
indicate consolidation
MOMENTUM PICK
74.50 sixth week led by weak EM currencies
and continued selling by foreign
investors. The rupee ended 0.8% down
72.44 at 71.55
70.54 • The US dollar/rupee pair continued to
February 2016 form higher high-low after breaking past
@ 68.86 double bottom break out (70.5)
indicating extended decline for Rupee.
68.30 We expect current decline to extend
68.26 towards 72.50 in the coming weeks as it
is the measuring implication of the range
breakout which coincides with early
2019 swing low
January 2018 @ 63.24 • Going forward, we expect 70.50 to act as
key hurdle for rupee against US dollar
MOMENTUM PICK
S&P BSE SENSEX INDEX Negative 36701.16 36267 35832 35562 36972 37242 37677
NIFTY BANK Negative 26958.65 26611 26262 25964 27257 27556 27904
NIFTY 50 FUTURES Negative 10855 10708 10561 10475 10941 11027 11174
NIFTY BANK FUTURES Negative 27040 26688 26335 26054 27322 27603 27957
ACC LTD Negative 1468.75 1450 1432 1417 1482 1496 1515
AMBUJA CEMENTS Negative 197.3 196 194 193 200 202 204
ADANI POWER LTD Negative 58.6 57 54 53 61 62 65
ADANI ENTERPRISE Neutral 131.3 126 120 117 135 138 144
ADANI PORTS AND Neutral 349.35 342 334 327 356 363 371
ASHOK LEYLAND Negative 60.25 57 55 54 61 63 65
AMARA RAJA BATT Positive 616.6 599 581 571 627 637 655
APOLLO HOSPITALS Negative 1440.85 1423 1404 1383 1463 1484 1503
ASIAN PAINTS LTD Negative 1580.4 1563 1545 1535 1590 1601 1618
APOLLO TYRES LTD Positive 165.6 162 158 155 168 172 175
MOMENTUM PICK
BOSCH LTD Positive 13757.6 13459 13161 12958 13961 14163 14462
BHARAT PETROL Neutral 329.35 315 301 293 338 345 360
BERGER PAINTS Positive 363.6 361 356 354 367 370 374
BRITANNIA INDS Positive 2466.65 2412 2357 2312 2512 2557 2612
CANARA BANK Negative 216.7 209 202 197 221 226 232
CONTAINER CORP Neutral 487.75 472 457 438 506 525 541
CADILA HEALTHCAR Positive 220.4 212 204 199 225 230 237
CENTURY TEXTILE Neutral 826.7 807 786 771 843 858 879
CESC LTD Negative 756.65 751 744 738 764 770 777
CHOLAMANDALAM IN Neutral 260.65 246 233 223 269 279 293
CIPLA LTD Negative 465.9 455 443 437 473 479 491
COLGATE PALMOLIV Positive 1191.35 1180 1169 1157 1203 1215 1226
COAL INDIA LTD Positive 188 183 177 173 192 195 201
CASTROL INDIA Positive 119.65 115 110 107 123 126 130
MOMENTUM PICK
GMR INFRASTRUCTU Positive 14.95 15 14 14 16 16 16
GLENMARK PHARMA Neutral 368.15 358 347 341 375 381 391
GRASIM INDS LTD Neutral 719.45 686 653 626 746 773 806
HAVELLS INDIA Negative 647.2 631 615 600 661 675 691
HCL TECH LTD Positive 1087 1077 1067 1057 1096 1107 1116
HOUSING DEV FIN Negative 2043.75 1992 1940 1907 2077 2110 2162
HDFC BANK LTD Negative 2162.7 2143 2123 2106 2180 2197 2218
HEXAWARE TECHNOL Positive 386.3 381 373 369 392 397 404
HERO MOTOCORP LT Neutral 2640.2 2612 2584 2555 2669 2698 2727
HINDALCO INDS Neutral 180.25 174 168 164 184 188 194
HINDUSTAN PETRO Neutral 238.3 228 216 209 246 254 265
HINDUSTAN UNILEV Neutral 1860 1849 1836 1822 1875 1890 1902
HINDUSTAN ZINC Neutral 202.45 196 190 186 207 211 217
IDBI BANK LTD Negative 24.7 25 23 23 26 27 28
MOMENTUM PICK
CUMMINS INDIA Positive 576.05 563 548 536 589 601 616
KOTAK MAHINDRA Negative 1470.2 1449 1427 1408 1490 1509 1531
LIC HOUSING FIN Negative 424.85 405 384 371 438 450 471
LUPIN LTD Negative 738.65 719 699 686 752 765 786
LARSEN & TOUBRO Negative 1286.5 1275 1263 1251 1298 1309 1321
L&T FINANCE HOLD Negative 89.9 89 86 84 93 96 98
MAHANAGAR GAS LT Negative 846.25 830 813 803 857 867 885
MAX FINANCIAL SE Neutral 447.15 439 430 424 454 460 469
MCX INDIA LTD Neutral 849.6 827 803 788 865 881 904
MANAPPURAM FINAN Negative 120.1 115 111 108 122 125 129
MAHINDRA & MAHIN Neutral 533.25 516 499 489 543 553 570
M&M FIN SERVICES Negative 311.95 304 295 288 319 327 335
MARICO LTD Negative 380.05 374 369 360 388 397 403
MRF LTD Neutral 57859.5 56788 55715 54909 58667 59473 60546
MOMENTUM PICK
PIRAMAL ENTERPRI Neutral 1779.95 1724 1667 1634 1814 1847 1904
PETRONET LNG LTD Neutral 238.8 236 234 231 241 244 246
PUNJAB NATL BANK Negative 63.6 62 60 59 65 66 68
POWER FINANCE Neutral 101.85 98 95 92 104 107 111
PVR LTD Neutral 1491.35 1450 1407 1377 1523 1553 1595
POWER GRID CORP Negative 201.5 199 198 196 203 206 207
RBL BANK LTD Negative 354.2 341 328 318 364 374 386
RELIANCE CAPITAL Negative 34.75 32 28 25 38 40 44
REC LTD Neutral 141.95 136 132 128 144 148 152
RELIANCE INFRAST Negative 37.75 35 31 29 41 43 47
RELIANCE INDS Neutral 1275.85 1240 1205 1183 1298 1320 1355
RAYMOND LTD Negative 560 541 521 509 573 585 604
STEEL AUTHORITY Negative 31.35 30 29 28 32 33 35
STATE BANK IND Negative 271.1 265 257 252 277 283 290
MOMENTUM PICK
TITAN CO LTD Neutral 1073.5 1047 1022 1004 1090 1108 1133
TATA CHEMICALS Neutral 553.25 545 537 531 559 565 573
TATA MOTORS LTD Neutral 111.05 108 106 104 112 114 116
TATA MOTORS-A Neutral 52.3 51 50 49 54 54 56
TVS MOTOR CO LTD Neutral 365.55 357 347 342 371 377 386
UNITED BREWERIES Neutral 1305.25 1273 1241 1220 1326 1347 1379
UJJIVAN FINANCIA Neutral 265 258 250 245 271 276 284
UNION BANK INDIA Negative 59.4 58 57 56 60 61 63
UNITED SPIRITS Neutral 582.5 567 553 544 590 599 613
UPL LTD Neutral 547.25 524 501 487 560 573 596
ULTRATECH CEMENT Negative 3861.8 3803 3743 3694 3911 3959 4019
VEDANTA LTD Neutral 137.4 130 123 119 140 145 151
VOLTAS LTD Positive 612.65 595 576 566 624 634 652
WIPRO LTD Positive 251.4 249 245 241 256 261 264
MOMENTUM PICK
26-Aug Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 27-Aug Industrial Profits YoY
28-Aug MBA Mortgage Applications 29-Aug Swift Global Payments CNY
29-Aug GDP Annualized QoQ UK
India 27-Aug UK Finance Loans for Housing
30-Aug GDP YoY 28-Aug BRC Shop Price Index YoY
MOMENTUM PICK
23-Aug-19 Nifty NIFTY Sell 10765-10788 10750.0/10724.0 10,802.00 (26)points stoploss triggered
23-Aug-19 TCS TCS Buy 2200.00-2207.00 2223.80/2242.80 2,183.40 - No trade
23-Aug-19 Bajaj Finance BAJFI Sell 3115.00-3125.00 3090.30/3062.20 3,149.80 - No trade
Future Positional
Profit/Loss
Date Scrip Idirect Code Strategy Recommended Price Targets SL Comment
per Lot
20-Aug-19 IndusInd Bank Fut INDBA Sell 1402.00 1330.00 1442.00 22800.00 Booked profit at 1345.00
MOMENTUM PICK
16-Aug-19 Dr. Lal Pathlabs Buy 1150-1165 1,320.00 1075.00 6 Months
11-Jun-19 Symphony Buy 1275-1315 1,530.00 1175.00 6 Months
All the recommendations are in Cash segment
MOMENTUM PICK
ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research
August 26, 2019 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 23
Notes......
• In case of intraday stock recommendations, execute the trade within +/- 0.25% of the recommended range provided in
the report. The stock recommendation has to be execute after the first 5 minutes of trade and only up to 11:00 am. In
MOMENTUM PICK
case of Nifty future execute after the first 5 minutes of trade and up to 03:00 pm
• In case of positional recommendations, execute the recommendations in the range provided in the report
• Once the recommendation is executed, it is advisable to maintain strict stop loss as provided in the report. For positional
recommendation maintain stop loss on daily closing basis
• We adapt a trading strategy of booking 50% profit when the position is in profit by 4-5% and trail stop loss on remaining
position to the entry point (In case of positional stock recommendations)
• In case of intra day Nifty futures recommendation, once recommendation is activated, consider booking 50% profit near
1st Target (tolerance of 3 points) and trail stop loss to cost for remaining positions
• If the recommended intra day stock hits the target price before getting activated, then it is considered not initiated
• The Intra day recommendations are valid only for the day and should be squared off by 15:10 hrs. The positional
recommendations are valid only for the prescribed period and are to be squared off at the end of mentioned period
• Only stocks in derivatives segment have been considered for intra day recommendations
• Medium to long-term prospects of a stock does not have any bearing on the intra day view
• It is recommended to spread out the trading corpus in a proportionate manner between the various technical research
products
• Please avoid allocating the entire trading corpus to a single stock or a single product segment
• Within each product segment it is advisable to allocate equal amount to each recommendation
• For example: The ‘Momentum Pick’ product carries 2 to 4 intraday recommendations. It is advisable to allocate equal
amount to each recommendation
MOMENTUM PICK
allocation In 1 Stock Number of Calls Return Objective Duration
Stocks on the move 25% 12-15% 6-8 Per Month 10-12% 3 Months
Cash
100%
MOMENTUM PICK
to the placement of the pattern within larger trend
Morning Star: Potential bottom reversal pattern made of three candle lines. The first sizeable black candle reflects a market in which the bears are in complete charge.
The next candle line--the small real body--shows a slight diminution of the bearish force. The white candle that makes up the last part of the morning star visually
displays the bulls are gaining the upper hand. Lowest low amongst three candles becomes technical support
Bullish Engulfing Line: A potential bottom reversal pattern. This pattern typically appears at the culmination of a decline or downtrend. The market falls, and a black
candle forms (ideally a small black candle). Next, a white real body wraps around the prior session’s black body. Low of the pattern becomes short term support for
prices
Piercing Line: Potential bottom reversal pattern. A black body forms in the downtrend. The market continues moving south on the next session’s open but that session
culminates in a white real body that closes (e.g. pierces) than half way or more into the prior black body. Lowest low between two candles is referred to as technical
support for prices
Hammer: A candlestick line which, during a downtrend, has a very long lower shadow and small real body (black or white) at the top end of the session’s range. There
should be no, or a very small, upper shadow. Pattern suggests buying support during declines and needs confirmation in terms of sustainability of prices above head of
the Hammer in following session
Bearish Engulfing Line: Potential top reversal signal. This two candlestick pattern emerges during a rally. A black candle real body wraps around a white real body
(classically a small white candle) Highest high between two candles becomes resistance level for prices for future reference
Dark Cloud cover: A dark cloud cover forms a top reversal pattern. The first session should be a strong, white real body. The second session’s price opens over the
prior session’s high (or above the prior session’s close). By the end of the second session, it closes near the low of the session and should fall well into the prior
session’s white body. Pattern suggests that market has a poor chance of rising immediately
Shooting Star: A single candlestick line during a rally in which there is a small real body (white or black) at the bottom end of the session's range and a very long
upper shadow. The candle line should also have little or no lower shadow. Pattern suggest the trouble for prices overhead
Continuation Patterns: Other than widely known Candlestick reversal patterns discussed above, there are numerous patterns mentioned in literature on Candlestick
which describe the continuation of existing sentiments i.e. bullish or bearish. We have refrained from mentioning names of these patterns to avoid confusion. However,
the remark Continuation Pattern refers to bullish or bearish candlestick patterns which suggest continuation of existing trend
Road No 7, MIDC,
Andheri (East)
research@icicidirect.com
MOMENTUM PICK
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