N° de desvíaciones desviación

estandar estándar
NIVEL DE CONFIANZA DEL 99% 2.576 2.44% NIVEL DE CONFIANZA DE
VAR 6.28% VAR
ERRORES 6 2.47% ERRORES

Limite
Variación Limite inferior
Nemotecnic Fecha Precio cierre superior
ECOPETROL 28/12/2017 00:00:00 2,210.00
ECOPETROL 02/01/2018 00:00:00 2,260.00 2.24% 2,071.16 2,348.84
ECOPETROL 03/01/2018 00:00:00 2,350.00 3.91% 2,118.02 2,401.98
ECOPETROL 04/01/2018 00:00:00 2,460.00 4.57% 2,202.37 2,497.63
ECOPETROL 05/01/2018 00:00:00 2,500.00 1.61% 2,305.46 2,614.54
ECOPETROL 09/01/2018 00:00:00 2,555.00 2.18% 2,342.94 2,657.06
ECOPETROL 10/01/2018 00:00:00 2,535.00 -0.79% 2,394.49 2,715.51
ECOPETROL 11/01/2018 00:00:00 2,425.00 -4.44% 2,375.75 2,694.25
ECOPETROL 12/01/2018 00:00:00 2,375.00 -2.08% 2,272.66 2,577.34
ECOPETROL 15/01/2018 00:00:00 2,335.00 -1.70% 2,225.80 2,524.20
ECOPETROL 16/01/2018 00:00:00 2,420.00 3.58% 2,188.31 2,481.69
ECOPETROL 17/01/2018 00:00:00 2,465.00 1.84% 2,267.97 2,572.03
ECOPETROL 18/01/2018 00:00:00 2,475.00 0.40% 2,310.14 2,619.86
ECOPETROL 19/01/2018 00:00:00 2,465.00 -0.40% 2,319.52 2,630.48
ECOPETROL 22/01/2018 00:00:00 2,590.00 4.95% 2,310.14 2,619.86
ECOPETROL 23/01/2018 00:00:00 2,705.00 4.34% 2,427.29 2,752.71
ECOPETROL 24/01/2018 00:00:00 2,800.00 3.45% 2,535.07 2,874.93
ECOPETROL 25/01/2018 00:00:00 2,745.00 -1.98% 2,624.10 2,975.90
ECOPETROL 26/01/2018 00:00:00 2,760.00 0.54% 2,572.55 2,917.45
ECOPETROL 29/01/2018 00:00:00 2,775.00 0.54% 2,586.61 2,933.39
ECOPETROL 30/01/2018 00:00:00 2,700.00 -2.74% 2,600.67 2,949.33
ECOPETROL 31/01/2018 00:00:00 2,660.00 -1.49% 2,530.38 2,869.62
ECOPETROL 01/02/2018 00:00:00 2,770.00 4.05% 2,492.89 2,827.11
ECOPETROL 02/02/2018 00:00:00 2,665.00 -3.86% 2,595.98 2,944.02
ECOPETROL 05/02/2018 00:00:00 2,485.00 -6.99% 2,497.58 2,832.42
ECOPETROL 06/02/2018 00:00:00 2,500.00 0.60% 2,328.89 2,641.11
ECOPETROL 07/02/2018 00:00:00 2,430.00 -2.84% 2,342.94 2,657.06
ECOPETROL 08/02/2018 00:00:00 2,335.00 -3.99% 2,277.34 2,582.66
ECOPETROL 09/02/2018 00:00:00 2,445.00 4.60% 2,188.31 2,481.69
ECOPETROL 12/02/2018 00:00:00 2,420.00 -1.03% 2,291.40 2,598.60
ECOPETROL 13/02/2018 00:00:00 2,385.00 -1.46% 2,267.97 2,572.03
ECOPETROL 14/02/2018 00:00:00 2,500.00 4.71% 2,235.17 2,534.83
ECOPETROL 15/02/2018 00:00:00 2,490.00 -0.40% 2,342.94 2,657.06
ECOPETROL 16/02/2018 00:00:00 2,485.00 -0.20% 2,333.57 2,646.43
ECOPETROL 19/02/2018 00:00:00 2,480.00 -0.20% 2,328.89 2,641.11
ECOPETROL 20/02/2018 00:00:00 2,485.00 0.20% 2,324.20 2,635.80
ECOPETROL 21/02/2018 00:00:00 2,475.00 -0.40% 2,328.89 2,641.11
ECOPETROL 22/02/2018 00:00:00 2,565.00 3.57% 2,319.52 2,630.48
ECOPETROL 23/02/2018 00:00:00 2,625.00 2.31% 2,403.86 2,726.14
ECOPETROL 26/02/2018 00:00:00 2,655.00 1.14% 2,460.09 2,789.91
ECOPETROL 27/02/2018 00:00:00 2,630.00 -0.95% 2,488.21 2,821.79
ECOPETROL 28/02/2018 00:00:00 2,510.00 -4.67% 2,464.78 2,795.22
ECOPETROL 01/03/2018 00:00:00 2,480.00 -1.20% 2,352.32 2,667.68
ECOPETROL 02/03/2018 00:00:00 2,480.00 0.00% 2,324.20 2,635.80
ECOPETROL 05/03/2018 00:00:00 2,510.00 1.20% 2,324.20 2,635.80
ECOPETROL 06/03/2018 00:00:00 2,505.00 -0.20% 2,352.32 2,667.68
ECOPETROL 07/03/2018 00:00:00 2,450.00 -2.22% 2,347.63 2,662.37
ECOPETROL 08/03/2018 00:00:00 2,475.00 1.02% 2,296.09 2,603.91
ECOPETROL 09/03/2018 00:00:00 2,505.00 1.20% 2,319.52 2,630.48
ECOPETROL 12/03/2018 00:00:00 2,480.00 -1.00% 2,347.63 2,662.37
ECOPETROL 13/03/2018 00:00:00 2,505.00 1.00% 2,324.20 2,635.80
ECOPETROL 14/03/2018 00:00:00 2,505.00 0.00% 2,347.63 2,662.37
ECOPETROL 15/03/2018 00:00:00 2,535.00 1.19% 2,347.63 2,662.37
ECOPETROL 16/03/2018 00:00:00 2,590.00 2.15% 2,375.75 2,694.25
ECOPETROL 20/03/2018 00:00:00 2,670.00 3.04% 2,427.29 2,752.71
ECOPETROL 21/03/2018 00:00:00 2,750.00 2.95% 2,502.26 2,837.74
ECOPETROL 22/03/2018 00:00:00 2,620.00 -4.84% 2,577.24 2,922.76
ECOPETROL 23/03/2018 00:00:00 2,700.00 3.01% 2,455.41 2,784.59
ECOPETROL 26/03/2018 00:00:00 2,775.00 2.74% 2,530.38 2,869.62
ECOPETROL 27/03/2018 00:00:00 2,645.00 -4.80% 2,600.67 2,949.33
ECOPETROL 28/03/2018 00:00:00 2,615.00 -1.14% 2,478.84 2,811.16
ECOPETROL 02/04/2018 00:00:00 2,690.00 2.83% 2,450.72 2,779.28
ECOPETROL 03/04/2018 00:00:00 2,730.00 1.48% 2,521.01 2,858.99
ECOPETROL 04/04/2018 00:00:00 2,740.00 0.37% 2,558.50 2,901.50
ECOPETROL 05/04/2018 00:00:00 2,740.00 0.00% 2,567.87 2,912.13
ECOPETROL 06/04/2018 00:00:00 2,730.00 -0.37% 2,567.87 2,912.13
ECOPETROL 09/04/2018 00:00:00 2,745.00 0.55% 2,558.50 2,901.50
ECOPETROL 10/04/2018 00:00:00 2,790.00 1.63% 2,572.55 2,917.45
ECOPETROL 11/04/2018 00:00:00 2,980.00 6.59% 2,614.73 2,965.27
ECOPETROL 12/04/2018 00:00:00 2,955.00 -0.84% 2,792.79 3,167.21
ECOPETROL 13/04/2018 00:00:00 2,835.00 -4.15% 2,769.36 3,140.64
ECOPETROL 16/04/2018 00:00:00 2,760.00 -2.68% 2,656.90 3,013.10
ECOPETROL 17/04/2018 00:00:00 2,870.00 3.91% 2,586.61 2,933.39
ECOPETROL 18/04/2018 00:00:00 2,935.00 2.24% 2,689.70 3,050.30
ECOPETROL 19/04/2018 00:00:00 3,030.00 3.19% 2,750.62 3,119.38
ECOPETROL 20/04/2018 00:00:00 3,030.00 0.00% 2,839.65 3,220.35
ECOPETROL 23/04/2018 00:00:00 3,085.00 1.80% 2,839.65 3,220.35
ECOPETROL 24/04/2018 00:00:00 3,060.00 -0.81% 2,891.19 3,278.81
ECOPETROL 25/04/2018 00:00:00 3,045.00 -0.49% 2,867.76 3,252.24
ECOPETROL 26/04/2018 00:00:00 3,010.00 -1.16% 2,853.71 3,236.29
ECOPETROL 27/04/2018 00:00:00 3,070.00 1.97% 2,820.91 3,199.09
ECOPETROL 30/04/2018 00:00:00 3,100.00 0.97% 2,877.14 3,262.86
ECOPETROL 02/05/2018 00:00:00 3,105.00 0.16% 2,905.25 3,294.75
ECOPETROL 03/05/2018 00:00:00 3,095.00 -0.32% 2,909.94 3,300.06
ECOPETROL 04/05/2018 00:00:00 3,095.00 0.00% 2,900.57 3,289.43
ECOPETROL 07/05/2018 00:00:00 3,030.00 -2.12% 2,900.57 3,289.43
ECOPETROL 08/05/2018 00:00:00 3,085.00 1.80% 2,839.65 3,220.35
ECOPETROL 09/05/2018 00:00:00 3,160.00 2.40% 2,891.19 3,278.81
ECOPETROL 10/05/2018 00:00:00 3,100.00 -1.92% 2,961.48 3,358.52
ECOPETROL 11/05/2018 00:00:00 3,135.00 1.12% 2,905.25 3,294.75
ECOPETROL 15/05/2018 00:00:00 3,290.00 4.83% 2,938.05 3,331.95
ECOPETROL 16/05/2018 00:00:00 3,205.00 -2.62% 3,083.32 3,496.68
ECOPETROL 17/05/2018 00:00:00 3,170.00 -1.10% 3,003.66 3,406.34
ECOPETROL 18/05/2018 00:00:00 3,150.00 -0.63% 2,970.85 3,369.15
ECOPETROL 21/05/2018 00:00:00 3,125.00 -0.80% 2,952.11 3,347.89
ECOPETROL 22/05/2018 00:00:00 3,110.00 -0.48% 2,928.68 3,321.32
ECOPETROL 23/05/2018 00:00:00 3,025.00 -2.77% 2,914.62 3,305.38
ECOPETROL 24/05/2018 00:00:00 3,075.00 1.64% 2,834.96 3,215.04
ECOPETROL 25/05/2018 00:00:00 2,955.00 -3.98% 2,881.82 3,268.18
ECOPETROL 28/05/2018 00:00:00 2,900.00 -1.88% 2,769.36 3,140.64
ECOPETROL 29/05/2018 00:00:00 3,030.00 4.39% 2,717.82 3,082.18
ECOPETROL 30/05/2018 00:00:00 3,120.00 2.93% 2,839.65 3,220.35
ECOPETROL 31/05/2018 00:00:00 3,090.00 -0.97% 2,924.00 3,316.00
ECOPETROL 01/06/2018 00:00:00 3,110.00 0.65% 2,895.88 3,284.12
ECOPETROL 05/06/2018 00:00:00 3,080.00 -0.97% 2,914.62 3,305.38
ECOPETROL 06/06/2018 00:00:00 3,015.00 -2.13% 2,886.51 3,273.49
ECOPETROL 07/06/2018 00:00:00 3,060.00 1.48% 2,825.59 3,204.41
ECOPETROL 08/06/2018 00:00:00 3,045.00 -0.49% 2,867.76 3,252.24
ECOPETROL 12/06/2018 00:00:00 3,005.00 -1.32% 2,853.71 3,236.29
ECOPETROL 13/06/2018 00:00:00 3,010.00 0.17% 2,816.22 3,193.78
ECOPETROL 14/06/2018 00:00:00 3,005.00 -0.17% 2,820.91 3,199.09
ECOPETROL 15/06/2018 00:00:00 2,960.00 -1.51% 2,816.22 3,193.78
ECOPETROL 18/06/2018 00:00:00 2,985.00 0.84% 2,774.05 3,145.95
ECOPETROL 19/06/2018 00:00:00 2,905.00 -2.72% 2,797.48 3,172.52
ECOPETROL 20/06/2018 00:00:00 2,875.00 -1.04% 2,722.50 3,087.50
ECOPETROL 21/06/2018 00:00:00 2,845.00 -1.05% 2,694.39 3,055.61
ECOPETROL 22/06/2018 00:00:00 2,880.00 1.22% 2,666.27 3,023.73
ECOPETROL 25/06/2018 00:00:00 2,820.00 -2.11% 2,699.07 3,060.93
ECOPETROL 26/06/2018 00:00:00 2,885.00 2.28% 2,642.84 2,997.16
ECOPETROL 27/06/2018 00:00:00 2,970.00 2.90% 2,703.76 3,066.24
ECOPETROL 28/06/2018 00:00:00 2,985.00 0.50% 2,783.42 3,156.58
ECOPETROL 29/06/2018 00:00:00 3,025.00 1.33% 2,797.48 3,172.52
ECOPETROL 03/07/2018 00:00:00 2,930.00 -3.19% 2,834.96 3,215.04
ECOPETROL 04/07/2018 00:00:00 2,930.00 0.00% 2,745.93 3,114.07
ECOPETROL 05/07/2018 00:00:00 2,895.00 -1.20% 2,745.93 3,114.07
ECOPETROL 06/07/2018 00:00:00 2,935.00 1.37% 2,713.13 3,076.87
ECOPETROL 09/07/2018 00:00:00 3,000.00 2.19% 2,750.62 3,119.38
ECOPETROL 10/07/2018 00:00:00 3,020.00 0.66% 2,811.53 3,188.47
ECOPETROL 11/07/2018 00:00:00 2,955.00 -2.18% 2,830.28 3,209.72
ECOPETROL 12/07/2018 00:00:00 2,945.00 -0.34% 2,769.36 3,140.64
ECOPETROL 13/07/2018 00:00:00 2,965.00 0.68% 2,759.99 3,130.01
ECOPETROL 16/07/2018 00:00:00 2,940.00 -0.85% 2,778.73 3,151.27
ECOPETROL 17/07/2018 00:00:00 2,960.00 0.68% 2,755.30 3,124.70
ECOPETROL 18/07/2018 00:00:00 2,965.00 0.17% 2,774.05 3,145.95
ECOPETROL 19/07/2018 00:00:00 2,950.00 -0.51% 2,778.73 3,151.27
ECOPETROL 23/07/2018 00:00:00 2,970.00 0.68% 2,764.67 3,135.33
ECOPETROL 24/07/2018 00:00:00 2,965.00 -0.17% 2,783.42 3,156.58
ECOPETROL 25/07/2018 00:00:00 3,000.00 1.17% 2,778.73 3,151.27
ECOPETROL 26/07/2018 00:00:00 3,005.00 0.17% 2,811.53 3,188.47
ECOPETROL 27/07/2018 00:00:00 2,985.00 -0.67% 2,816.22 3,193.78
ECOPETROL 30/07/2018 00:00:00 3,080.00 3.13% 2,797.48 3,172.52
ECOPETROL 31/07/2018 00:00:00 3,070.00 -0.33% 2,886.51 3,273.49
ECOPETROL 01/08/2018 00:00:00 3,125.00 1.78% 2,877.14 3,262.86
ECOPETROL 02/08/2018 00:00:00 3,130.00 0.16% 2,928.68 3,321.32
ECOPETROL 03/08/2018 00:00:00 3,095.00 -1.12% 2,933.37 3,326.63
ECOPETROL 06/08/2018 00:00:00 3,140.00 1.44% 2,900.57 3,289.43
ECOPETROL 08/08/2018 00:00:00 3,175.00 1.11% 2,942.74 3,337.26
ECOPETROL 09/08/2018 00:00:00 3,030.00 -4.67% 2,975.54 3,374.46
ECOPETROL 10/08/2018 00:00:00 3,070.00 1.31% 2,839.65 3,220.35
ECOPETROL 13/08/2018 00:00:00 3,060.00 -0.33% 2,877.14 3,262.86
ECOPETROL 14/08/2018 00:00:00 3,100.00 1.30% 2,867.76 3,252.24
ECOPETROL 15/08/2018 00:00:00 3,000.00 -3.28% 2,905.25 3,294.75
ECOPETROL 16/08/2018 00:00:00 3,065.00 2.14% 2,811.53 3,188.47
ECOPETROL 17/08/2018 00:00:00 3,095.00 0.97% 2,872.45 3,257.55
ECOPETROL 21/08/2018 00:00:00 3,140.00 1.44% 2,900.57 3,289.43
ECOPETROL 22/08/2018 00:00:00 3,220.00 2.52% 2,942.74 3,337.26
ECOPETROL 23/08/2018 00:00:00 3,240.00 0.62% 3,017.71 3,422.29
ECOPETROL 24/08/2018 00:00:00 3,270.00 0.92% 3,036.46 3,443.54
ECOPETROL 27/08/2018 00:00:00 3,305.00 1.06% 3,064.57 3,475.43
ECOPETROL 28/08/2018 00:00:00 3,330.00 0.75% 3,097.37 3,512.63
ECOPETROL 29/08/2018 00:00:00 3,385.00 1.64% 3,120.80 3,539.20
ECOPETROL 30/08/2018 00:00:00 3,445.00 1.76% 3,172.35 3,597.65
ECOPETROL 31/08/2018 00:00:00 3,420.00 -0.73% 3,228.58 3,661.42
ECOPETROL 03/09/2018 00:00:00 3,395.00 -0.73% 3,205.15 3,634.85
ECOPETROL 04/09/2018 00:00:00 3,455.00 1.75% 3,181.72 3,608.28
ECOPETROL 05/09/2018 00:00:00 3,430.00 -0.73% 3,237.95 3,672.05
ECOPETROL 06/09/2018 00:00:00 3,390.00 -1.17% 3,214.52 3,645.48
ECOPETROL 07/09/2018 00:00:00 3,410.00 0.59% 3,177.03 3,602.97
ECOPETROL 10/09/2018 00:00:00 3,410.00 0.00% 3,195.78 3,624.22
ECOPETROL 11/09/2018 00:00:00 3,480.00 2.03% 3,195.78 3,624.22
ECOPETROL 12/09/2018 00:00:00 3,820.00 9.32% 3,261.38 3,698.62
ECOPETROL 13/09/2018 00:00:00 3,765.00 -1.45% 3,580.02 4,059.98
ECOPETROL 14/09/2018 00:00:00 3,790.00 0.66% 3,528.47 4,001.53
ECOPETROL 17/09/2018 00:00:00 3,870.00 2.09% 3,551.90 4,028.10
ECOPETROL 18/09/2018 00:00:00 3,940.00 1.79% 3,626.88 4,113.12
ECOPETROL 19/09/2018 00:00:00 3,850.00 -2.31% 3,692.48 4,187.52
ECOPETROL 20/09/2018 00:00:00 3,715.00 -3.57% 3,608.13 4,091.87
ECOPETROL 21/09/2018 00:00:00 3,680.00 -0.95% 3,481.62 3,948.38
ECOPETROL 24/09/2018 00:00:00 3,900.00 5.81% 3,448.81 3,911.19
ECOPETROL 25/09/2018 00:00:00 3,930.00 0.77% 3,654.99 4,145.01
ECOPETROL 26/09/2018 00:00:00 3,925.00 -0.13% 3,683.11 4,176.89
ECOPETROL 27/09/2018 00:00:00 3,980.00 1.39% 3,678.42 4,171.58
ECOPETROL 28/09/2018 00:00:00 4,030.00 1.25% 3,729.97 4,230.03
ECOPETROL 01/10/2018 00:00:00 4,150.00 2.93% 3,776.83 4,283.17
ECOPETROL 02/10/2018 00:00:00 4,105.00 -1.09% 3,889.29 4,410.71
ECOPETROL 03/10/2018 00:00:00 4,160.00 1.33% 3,847.12 4,362.88
ECOPETROL 04/10/2018 00:00:00 4,080.00 -1.94% 3,898.66 4,421.34
ECOPETROL 05/10/2018 00:00:00 4,015.00 -1.61% 3,823.69 4,336.31
ECOPETROL 08/10/2018 00:00:00 3,990.00 -0.62% 3,762.77 4,267.23
ECOPETROL 09/10/2018 00:00:00 4,080.00 2.23% 3,739.34 4,240.66
ECOPETROL 10/10/2018 00:00:00 4,015.00 -1.61% 3,823.69 4,336.31
ECOPETROL 11/10/2018 00:00:00 3,900.00 -2.91% 3,762.77 4,267.23
ECOPETROL 12/10/2018 00:00:00 3,950.00 1.27% 3,654.99 4,145.01
ECOPETROL 16/10/2018 00:00:00 3,970.00 0.51% 3,701.85 4,198.15
ECOPETROL 17/10/2018 00:00:00 3,965.00 -0.13% 3,720.60 4,219.40
ECOPETROL 18/10/2018 00:00:00 3,925.00 -1.01% 3,715.91 4,214.09
ECOPETROL 19/10/2018 00:00:00 3,950.00 0.63% 3,678.42 4,171.58
ECOPETROL 22/10/2018 00:00:00 3,960.00 0.25% 3,701.85 4,198.15
ECOPETROL 23/10/2018 00:00:00 3,845.00 -2.95% 3,711.22 4,208.78
ECOPETROL 24/10/2018 00:00:00 3,685.00 -4.25% 3,603.45 4,086.55
ECOPETROL 25/10/2018 00:00:00 3,705.00 0.54% 3,453.50 3,916.50
ECOPETROL 26/10/2018 00:00:00 3,755.00 1.34% 3,472.24 3,937.76
ECOPETROL 29/10/2018 00:00:00 3,690.00 -1.75% 3,519.10 3,990.90
ECOPETROL 30/10/2018 00:00:00 3,750.00 1.61% 3,458.19 3,921.81
ECOPETROL 31/10/2018 00:00:00 3,740.00 -0.27% 3,514.42 3,985.58
ECOPETROL 01/11/2018 00:00:00 3,465.00 -7.64% 3,505.05 3,974.95
ECOPETROL 02/11/2018 00:00:00 3,430.00 -1.02% 3,247.32 3,682.68
ECOPETROL 06/11/2018 00:00:00 3,440.00 0.29% 3,214.52 3,645.48
ECOPETROL 07/11/2018 00:00:00 3,480.00 1.16% 3,223.89 3,656.11
ECOPETROL 08/11/2018 00:00:00 3,425.00 -1.59% 3,261.38 3,698.62
ECOPETROL 09/11/2018 00:00:00 3,440.00 0.44% 3,209.83 3,640.17
ECOPETROL 13/11/2018 00:00:00 3,240.00 -5.99% 3,223.89 3,656.11
ECOPETROL 14/11/2018 00:00:00 3,250.00 0.31% 3,036.46 3,443.54
ECOPETROL 15/11/2018 00:00:00 3,280.00 0.92% 3,045.83 3,454.17
ECOPETROL 16/11/2018 00:00:00 3,275.00 -0.15% 3,073.94 3,486.06
ECOPETROL 19/11/2018 00:00:00 3,190.00 -2.63% 3,069.26 3,480.74
ECOPETROL 20/11/2018 00:00:00 3,060.00 -4.16% 2,989.60 3,390.40
ECOPETROL 21/11/2018 00:00:00 3,150.00 2.90% 2,867.76 3,252.24
ECOPETROL 22/11/2018 00:00:00 3,140.00 -0.32% 2,952.11 3,347.89
ECOPETROL 23/11/2018 00:00:00 3,020.00 -3.90% 2,942.74 3,337.26
ECOPETROL 26/11/2018 00:00:00 3,075.00 1.80% 2,830.28 3,209.72
ECOPETROL 27/11/2018 00:00:00 3,140.00 2.09% 2,881.82 3,268.18
ECOPETROL 28/11/2018 00:00:00 3,115.00 -0.80% 2,942.74 3,337.26
ECOPETROL 29/11/2018 00:00:00 3,110.00 -0.16% 2,919.31 3,310.69
ECOPETROL 30/11/2018 00:00:00 3,105.00 -0.16% 2,914.62 3,305.38
ECOPETROL 03/12/2018 00:00:00 3,290.00 5.79% 2,909.94 3,300.06
ECOPETROL 04/12/2018 00:00:00 3,160.00 -4.03% 3,083.32 3,496.68
ECOPETROL 05/12/2018 00:00:00 3,220.00 1.88% 2,961.48 3,358.52
ECOPETROL 06/12/2018 00:00:00 3,100.00 -3.80% 3,017.71 3,422.29
ECOPETROL 07/12/2018 00:00:00 3,100.00 0.00% 2,905.25 3,294.75
ECOPETROL 10/12/2018 00:00:00 3,020.00 -2.61% 2,905.25 3,294.75
ECOPETROL 11/12/2018 00:00:00 2,980.00 -1.33% 2,830.28 3,209.72
ECOPETROL 12/12/2018 00:00:00 3,015.00 1.17% 2,792.79 3,167.21
ECOPETROL 13/12/2018 00:00:00 2,960.00 -1.84% 2,825.59 3,204.41
ECOPETROL 14/12/2018 00:00:00 2,940.00 -0.68% 2,774.05 3,145.95
ECOPETROL 17/12/2018 00:00:00 2,875.00 -2.24% 2,755.30 3,124.70
ECOPETROL 18/12/2018 00:00:00 2,835.00 -1.40% 2,694.39 3,055.61
ECOPETROL 19/12/2018 00:00:00 2,815.00 -0.71% 2,656.90 3,013.10
ECOPETROL 20/12/2018 00:00:00 2,615.00 -7.37% 2,638.16 2,991.84
ECOPETROL 21/12/2018 00:00:00 2,665.00 1.89% 2,450.72 2,779.28
ECOPETROL 24/12/2018 00:00:00 2,550.00 -4.41% 2,497.58 2,832.42
ECOPETROL 26/12/2018 00:00:00 2,720.00 6.45% 2,389.80 2,710.20
ECOPETROL 27/12/2018 00:00:00 2,715.00 -0.18% 2,549.12 2,890.88
ECOPETROL 28/12/2018 00:00:00 2,645.00 -2.61% 2,544.44 2,885.56
 N° de desvíaciones desviación
estandar estándar
IVEL DE CONFIANZA DEL 95% 1.96 2.44% NIVEL DE CONFIANZA DEL 90%
VAR 4.78% VAR
ERRORES 12 4.94% ERRORES

Errores Límite inferior Límite superior Errores Límite inferior

0 2,104.36 2,315.64 0 2,121.34

0 2,151.97 2,368.03 0 2,169.33
0 2,237.67 2,462.33 0 2,255.72
0 2,342.41 2,577.59 0 2,361.31
0 2,380.50 2,619.50 0 2,399.71
0 2,432.87 2,677.13 0 2,452.50
0 2,413.83 2,656.17 0 2,433.30
0 2,309.09 2,540.91 0 2,327.72
0 2,261.48 2,488.52 0 2,279.72
0 2,223.39 2,446.61 0 2,241.33
0 2,304.33 2,535.67 0 2,322.92
0 2,347.17 2,582.83 0 2,366.11
0 2,356.70 2,593.30 0 2,375.71
0 2,347.17 2,582.83 1 2,366.11
0 2,466.20 2,713.80 0 2,486.10
0 2,575.70 2,834.30 0 2,596.48
0 2,666.16 2,933.84 0 2,687.67
0 2,613.79 2,876.21 0 2,634.88
0 2,628.07 2,891.93 0 2,649.28
0 2,642.36 2,907.64 0 2,663.67
0 2,570.94 2,829.06 0 2,591.68
0 2,532.85 2,787.15 0 2,553.29
0 2,637.60 2,902.40 0 2,658.87
1 2,537.61 2,792.39 1 2,558.09
0 2,366.22 2,603.78 0 2,385.31
0 2,380.50 2,619.50 0 2,399.71
0 2,313.85 2,546.15 0 2,332.51
0 2,223.39 2,446.61 0 2,241.33
0 2,328.13 2,561.87 0 2,346.91
0 2,304.33 2,535.67 0 2,322.92
0 2,271.00 2,499.00 1 2,289.32
0 2,380.50 2,619.50 0 2,399.71
0 2,370.98 2,609.02 0 2,390.11
0 2,366.22 2,603.78 0 2,385.31
0 2,361.46 2,598.54 0 2,380.51
0 2,366.22 2,603.78 0 2,385.31
0 2,356.70 2,593.30 0 2,375.71
0 2,442.39 2,687.61 0 2,462.10
0 2,499.53 2,750.47 0 2,519.69
0 2,528.09 2,781.91 0 2,548.49
0 2,504.29 2,755.71 0 2,524.49
0 2,390.02 2,629.98 0 2,409.31
0 2,361.46 2,598.54 0 2,380.51
0 2,361.46 2,598.54 0 2,380.51
0 2,390.02 2,629.98 0 2,409.31
0 2,385.26 2,624.74 0 2,404.51
0 2,332.89 2,567.11 0 2,351.71
0 2,356.70 2,593.30 0 2,375.71
0 2,385.26 2,624.74 0 2,404.51
0 2,361.46 2,598.54 0 2,380.51
0 2,385.26 2,624.74 0 2,404.51
0 2,385.26 2,624.74 0 2,404.51
0 2,413.83 2,656.17 0 2,433.30
0 2,466.20 2,713.80 0 2,486.10
0 2,542.38 2,797.62 0 2,562.89
0 2,618.55 2,881.45 0 2,639.68
0 2,494.77 2,745.23 0 2,514.89
0 2,570.94 2,829.06 0 2,591.68
0 2,642.36 2,907.64 0 2,663.67
0 2,518.57 2,771.43 0 2,538.89
0 2,490.00 2,740.00 0 2,510.09
0 2,561.42 2,818.58 0 2,582.08
0 2,599.51 2,860.49 0 2,620.48
0 2,609.03 2,870.97 0 2,630.08
0 2,609.03 2,870.97 0 2,630.08
0 2,599.51 2,860.49 0 2,620.48
0 2,613.79 2,876.21 0 2,634.88
1 2,656.64 2,923.36 1 2,678.07
0 2,837.56 3,122.44 0 2,860.45
0 2,813.75 3,096.25 0 2,836.45
0 2,699.49 2,970.51 0 2,721.27
0 2,628.07 2,891.93 0 2,649.28
0 2,732.82 3,007.18 0 2,754.86
0 2,794.71 3,075.29 0 2,817.26
0 2,885.17 3,174.83 0 2,908.44
0 2,885.17 3,174.83 0 2,908.44
0 2,937.54 3,232.46 0 2,961.24
0 2,913.73 3,206.27 0 2,937.24
0 2,899.45 3,190.55 0 2,922.84
0 2,866.12 3,153.88 0 2,889.25
0 2,923.26 3,216.74 0 2,946.84
0 2,951.82 3,248.18 0 2,975.64
0 2,956.58 3,253.42 0 2,980.44
0 2,947.06 3,242.94 0 2,970.84
0 2,947.06 3,242.94 0 2,970.84
0 2,885.17 3,174.83 0 2,908.44
0 2,937.54 3,232.46 0 2,961.24
0 3,008.95 3,311.05 0 3,033.23
0 2,951.82 3,248.18 0 2,975.64
0 2,985.15 3,284.85 1 3,009.23
0 3,132.74 3,447.26 0 3,158.01
0 3,051.80 3,358.20 0 3,076.42
0 3,018.48 3,321.52 0 3,042.83
0 2,999.43 3,300.57 0 3,023.63
0 2,975.63 3,274.37 0 2,999.63
0 2,961.34 3,258.66 0 2,985.23
0 2,880.41 3,169.59 0 2,903.64
0 2,928.02 3,221.98 0 2,951.64
0 2,813.75 3,096.25 0 2,836.45
0 2,761.38 3,038.62 0 2,783.66
0 2,885.17 3,174.83 0 2,908.44
0 2,970.87 3,269.13 0 2,994.83
0 2,942.30 3,237.70 0 2,966.04
0 2,961.34 3,258.66 0 2,985.23
0 2,932.78 3,227.22 0 2,956.44
0 2,870.88 3,159.12 0 2,894.05
0 2,913.73 3,206.27 0 2,937.24
0 2,899.45 3,190.55 0 2,922.84
0 2,861.36 3,148.64 0 2,884.45
0 2,866.12 3,153.88 0 2,889.25
0 2,861.36 3,148.64 0 2,884.45
0 2,818.51 3,101.49 0 2,841.25
0 2,842.32 3,127.68 0 2,865.25
0 2,766.14 3,043.86 0 2,788.46
0 2,737.58 3,012.42 0 2,759.66
0 2,709.01 2,980.99 0 2,730.87
0 2,742.34 3,017.66 0 2,764.46
0 2,685.21 2,954.79 0 2,706.87
0 2,747.10 3,022.90 0 2,769.26
0 2,828.04 3,111.96 0 2,850.85
0 2,842.32 3,127.68 0 2,865.25
0 2,880.41 3,169.59 0 2,903.64
0 2,789.95 3,070.05 0 2,812.46
0 2,789.95 3,070.05 0 2,812.46
0 2,756.62 3,033.38 0 2,778.86
0 2,794.71 3,075.29 0 2,817.26
0 2,856.60 3,143.40 0 2,879.65
0 2,875.65 3,164.35 0 2,898.85
0 2,813.75 3,096.25 0 2,836.45
0 2,804.23 3,085.77 0 2,826.85
0 2,823.27 3,106.73 0 2,846.05
0 2,799.47 3,080.53 0 2,822.05
0 2,818.51 3,101.49 0 2,841.25
0 2,823.27 3,106.73 0 2,846.05
0 2,808.99 3,091.01 0 2,831.65
0 2,828.04 3,111.96 0 2,850.85
0 2,823.27 3,106.73 0 2,846.05
0 2,856.60 3,143.40 0 2,879.65
0 2,861.36 3,148.64 0 2,884.45
0 2,842.32 3,127.68 0 2,865.25
0 2,932.78 3,227.22 0 2,956.44
0 2,923.26 3,216.74 0 2,946.84
0 2,975.63 3,274.37 0 2,999.63
0 2,980.39 3,279.61 0 3,004.43
0 2,947.06 3,242.94 0 2,970.84
0 2,989.91 3,290.09 0 3,014.03
0 3,023.24 3,326.76 0 3,047.63
0 2,885.17 3,174.83 0 2,908.44
0 2,923.26 3,216.74 0 2,946.84
0 2,913.73 3,206.27 0 2,937.24
0 2,951.82 3,248.18 0 2,975.64
0 2,856.60 3,143.40 0 2,879.65
0 2,918.49 3,211.51 0 2,942.04
0 2,947.06 3,242.94 0 2,970.84
0 2,989.91 3,290.09 0 3,014.03
0 3,066.09 3,373.91 0 3,090.82
0 3,085.13 3,394.87 0 3,110.02
0 3,113.70 3,426.30 0 3,138.82
0 3,147.02 3,462.98 0 3,172.41
0 3,170.83 3,489.17 0 3,196.41
0 3,223.20 3,546.80 0 3,249.20
0 3,280.33 3,609.67 0 3,306.80
0 3,256.53 3,583.47 0 3,282.80
0 3,232.72 3,557.28 0 3,258.80
0 3,289.85 3,620.15 0 3,316.39
0 3,266.05 3,593.95 0 3,292.40
0 3,227.96 3,552.04 0 3,254.00
0 3,247.00 3,573.00 0 3,273.20
0 3,247.00 3,573.00 0 3,273.20
1 3,313.66 3,646.34 1 3,340.39
0 3,637.41 4,002.59 0 3,666.75
0 3,585.04 3,944.96 0 3,613.96
0 3,608.84 3,971.16 0 3,637.96
0 3,685.02 4,054.98 0 3,714.75
0 3,751.67 4,128.33 0 3,781.94
0 3,665.97 4,034.03 0 3,695.55
0 3,537.43 3,892.57 0 3,565.96
0 3,504.10 3,855.90 1 3,532.37
0 3,713.58 4,086.42 0 3,743.54
0 3,742.15 4,117.85 0 3,772.34
0 3,737.39 4,112.61 0 3,767.54
0 3,789.76 4,170.24 0 3,820.33
0 3,837.37 4,222.63 0 3,868.33
0 3,951.63 4,348.37 0 3,983.51
0 3,908.78 4,301.22 0 3,940.32
0 3,961.15 4,358.85 0 3,993.11
0 3,884.98 4,275.02 0 3,916.32
0 3,823.09 4,206.91 0 3,853.93
0 3,799.28 4,180.72 0 3,829.93
0 3,884.98 4,275.02 0 3,916.32
0 3,823.09 4,206.91 0 3,853.93
0 3,713.58 4,086.42 0 3,743.54
0 3,761.19 4,138.81 0 3,791.54
0 3,780.24 4,159.76 0 3,810.73
0 3,775.48 4,154.52 0 3,805.93
0 3,737.39 4,112.61 0 3,767.54
0 3,761.19 4,138.81 0 3,791.54
0 3,770.71 4,149.29 0 3,801.14
0 3,661.21 4,028.79 0 3,690.75
0 3,508.86 3,861.14 0 3,537.17
0 3,527.90 3,882.10 0 3,556.37
0 3,575.51 3,934.49 0 3,604.36
0 3,513.62 3,866.38 0 3,541.97
0 3,570.75 3,929.25 0 3,599.56
1 3,561.23 3,918.77 1 3,589.96
0 3,299.37 3,630.63 0 3,325.99
0 3,266.05 3,593.95 0 3,292.40
0 3,275.57 3,604.43 0 3,302.00
0 3,313.66 3,646.34 0 3,340.39
0 3,261.29 3,588.71 0 3,287.60
0 3,275.57 3,604.43 1 3,302.00
0 3,085.13 3,394.87 0 3,110.02
0 3,094.65 3,405.35 0 3,119.62
0 3,123.22 3,436.78 0 3,148.42
0 3,118.46 3,431.54 0 3,143.62
0 3,037.52 3,342.48 0 3,062.03
0 2,913.73 3,206.27 0 2,937.24
0 2,999.43 3,300.57 0 3,023.63
0 2,989.91 3,290.09 0 3,014.03
0 2,875.65 3,164.35 0 2,898.85
0 2,928.02 3,221.98 0 2,951.64
0 2,989.91 3,290.09 0 3,014.03
0 2,966.10 3,263.90 0 2,990.03
0 2,961.34 3,258.66 0 2,985.23
0 2,956.58 3,253.42 1 2,980.44
0 3,132.74 3,447.26 0 3,158.01
0 3,008.95 3,311.05 0 3,033.23
0 3,066.09 3,373.91 0 3,090.82
0 2,951.82 3,248.18 0 2,975.64
0 2,951.82 3,248.18 0 2,975.64
0 2,875.65 3,164.35 0 2,898.85
0 2,837.56 3,122.44 0 2,860.45
0 2,870.88 3,159.12 0 2,894.05
0 2,818.51 3,101.49 0 2,841.25
0 2,799.47 3,080.53 0 2,822.05
0 2,737.58 3,012.42 0 2,759.66
0 2,699.49 2,970.51 0 2,721.27
1 2,680.44 2,949.56 1 2,702.07
0 2,490.00 2,740.00 0 2,510.09
0 2,537.61 2,792.39 0 2,558.09
1 2,428.11 2,671.89 1 2,447.70
0 2,589.99 2,850.01 0 2,610.88
0 2,585.22 2,844.78 0 2,606.08
N° de desvíaciones desviación
estandar estándar
1.645 2.44%
4.01%
26 10.70%

Límite superior Errores Gráficas

2,298.66 0 Back Testing 99%

2,350.67 0 5000
2,444.28 1
4500
2,558.69 0
2,600.29 0 4000

2,657.50 0 3500
2,636.70 1 3000
2,522.28 0
2500
2,470.28 0
2,428.67 0 2000
2,517.08 0 1500
2,563.89 0
1000
2,574.29 0
500
2,563.89 1
2,693.90 1 0
1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64 71 78 85 92 99 06 13 20 27 34 41 48 55 62 6
2,813.52 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2,912.33 0 Li mi te inferior Li mi te s uperi or Erro
2,855.12 0
2,870.72 0
2,886.33 0 Back Testing 95%
2,808.32 0 5000
2,766.71 1 4500
2,881.13 0 4000
2,771.91 1 3500
2,584.69 0 3000
2,600.29 0
2500
2,527.49 0
2000
2,428.67 1
2,543.09 0 1500

2,517.08 0 1000
2,480.68 1 500
2,600.29 0 0
2,589.89 0 1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64 71 78 85 92 99 06 13 20 27 34 41 48 55 62 6
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2,584.69 0
Lími te inferi or Lími te s uperi or Erro
2,579.49 0
2,584.69 0
2,574.29 0 Back testing 90%
2,667.90 0 5000
2,730.31 0 4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
 Back testing 90%
5000
4500
2,761.51 0 4000
2,735.51 1 3500
2,610.69 0 3000
2,579.49 0 2500
2,579.49 0 2000
2,610.69 0 1500
2,605.49 0 1000
2,548.29 0 500
2,574.29 0 0
1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64 71 78 85 92 99 06 13 20 27 34 41 48 55 62 6
2,605.49 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2,579.49 0
Lími te i nferi or Lími te s uperi or Erro
2,605.49 0
2,605.49 0 CONCLUSIONES
2,636.70 0 Una vez realizados los cálculos para los dos diferentes niveles de confianza, podem
1. Cuando nuestro margen de confianza disminuye, disminuyen tambien los error
2,693.90 0 2. Que esta herramienta nos sirve para la toma decisiones, tomando en cuenta nu
2,777.11 0 3. Que al aumentar el nivel de confianza se cierra cada vez más la brecha entre los
2,860.32 1 4. Por lo tanto podemos medir de una forma mas real y segura el riesgo que toma
variable, para este caso
2,725.11 0
2,808.32 0
2,886.33 1
2,751.11 0
2,719.91 0
2,797.92 0
2,839.52 0
2,849.92 0
2,849.92 0
2,839.52 0
2,855.12 0
2,901.93 1
3,099.55 0
3,073.55 1
2,948.73 0
2,870.72 0
2,985.14 0
3,052.74 0
3,151.56 0
3,151.56 0
3,208.76 0
3,182.76 0
3,167.16 0
3,130.75 0
3,193.16 0
3,224.36 0
3,229.56 0
3,219.16 0
3,219.16 0
3,151.56 0
3,208.76 0
3,286.77 0
3,224.36 0
3,260.77 1
3,421.99 0
3,333.58 0
3,297.17 0
3,276.37 0
3,250.37 0
3,234.77 0
3,146.36 0
3,198.36 0
3,073.55 0
3,016.34 1
3,151.56 0
3,245.17 0
3,213.96 0
3,234.77 0
3,203.56 0
3,135.95 0
3,182.76 0
3,167.16 0
3,125.55 0
3,130.75 0
3,125.55 0
3,078.75 0
3,104.75 0
3,021.54 0
2,990.34 0
2,959.13 0
2,995.54 0
2,933.13 0
3,000.74 0
3,089.15 0
3,104.75 0
3,146.36 0
3,047.54 0
3,047.54 0
3,011.14 0
3,052.74 0
3,120.35 0
3,141.15 0
3,073.55 0
3,063.15 0
3,083.95 0
3,057.95 0
3,078.75 0
3,083.95 0
3,068.35 0
3,089.15 0
3,083.95 0
3,120.35 0
3,125.55 0
3,104.75 0
3,203.56 0
3,193.16 0
3,250.37 0
3,255.57 0
3,219.16 0
3,265.97 0
3,302.37 1
3,151.56 0
3,193.16 0
3,182.76 0
3,224.36 0
3,120.35 0
3,187.96 0
3,219.16 0
3,265.97 0
3,349.18 0
3,369.98 0
3,401.18 0
3,437.59 0
3,463.59 0
3,520.80 0
3,583.20 0
3,557.20 0
3,531.20 0
3,593.61 0
3,567.60 0
3,526.00 0
3,546.80 0
3,546.80 0
3,619.61 1
3,973.25 0
3,916.04 0
3,942.04 0
4,025.25 0
4,098.06 0
4,004.45 0
3,864.04 0
3,827.63 1
4,056.46 0
4,087.66 0
4,082.46 0
4,139.67 0
4,191.67 0
4,316.49 0
4,269.68 0
4,326.89 0
4,243.68 0
4,176.07 0
4,150.07 0
4,243.68 0
4,176.07 0
4,056.46 0
4,108.46 0
4,129.27 0
4,124.07 0
4,082.46 0
4,108.46 0
4,118.86 0
3,999.25 1
3,832.83 0
3,853.63 0
3,905.64 0
3,838.03 0
3,900.44 0
3,890.04 1
3,604.01 0
3,567.60 0
3,578.00 0
3,619.61 0
3,562.40 0
3,578.00 1
3,369.98 0
3,380.38 0
3,411.58 0
3,406.38 0
3,317.97 1
3,182.76 0
3,276.37 0
3,265.97 0
3,141.15 0
3,198.36 0
3,265.97 0
3,239.97 0
3,234.77 0
3,229.56 1
3,421.99 0
3,286.77 0
3,349.18 0
3,224.36 0
3,224.36 0
3,141.15 0
3,099.55 0
3,135.95 0
3,078.75 0
3,057.95 0
2,990.34 0
2,948.73 0
2,927.93 1
2,719.91 0
2,771.91 1
2,652.30 1
2,829.12 0
2,823.92 0
 Gráficas

k Testing 99%

6 13 20 27 34 41 48 55 62 69 76 83 90 97 04 11 18 25 32 39
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2

Li mi te s uperi or Errores

k Testing 95%

6 13 20 27 34 41 48 55 62 69 76 83 90 97 04 11 18 25 32 39
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2

Lími te s uperi or Errores

k testing 90%
k testing 90%

6 13 20 27 34 41 48 55 62 69 76 83 90 97 04 11 18 25 32 39
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2

Lími te s uperi or Errores

NCLUSIONES
niveles de confianza, podemos concluir:
isminuyen tambien los errores
ones, tomando en cuenta nuestro apetito al riesgo.
a vez más la brecha entre los límites superior e inferior
y segura el riesgo que tomamos al realizar inversiones en renta