Philippines among countries most threatened by rising seas, says new study

INQUIRER.net | November 04, 2019

The Philippines is one of eight Asian countries most threatened by coastal flooding due to increasingly
higher tides in the coming mid-century, a new study found.

The rising seas could affect three times more people than previously thought, and could even erase
some of the world’s great coastal cities by 2050, according to a study produced by Climate Central and
published on the journal Nature Communications, as per New York Times on Oct. 29.

The study shows that about 150 million people currently live in areas set to be submerged by 2050, and
about 70% of these people at risk are in the Philippines, China, Japan, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Indonesia,
India and Thailand.

The authors of the study found that the new estimate of land and people at risk is “far greater” than
previous estimations. They learned of this after developing a more accurate way of calculating land
elevation based on satellite readings.

“Global impacts of sea-level rise and coastal flooding this century will likely be far greater than indicated
by the most pessimistic past analyses relying on SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission),” the study
stated.

“Analysis reveals a developed global coastline three times more exposed to extreme coastal water levels
than previously thought.”

The most threatened areas can be viewed through a map on Climate Central’s website.

PH climate measures lack urgency despite vulnerable status, experts say

ABS-CBN News | October 16, 2019

Following the recent United Nations climate summit in New York, experts reminded world leaders of the
urgency to phase out coal power generation and other emissions-generating activities.

According to global think-tank Climate Analytics, the Philippines is not doing enough to adhere to the
Paris Agreement, a 2015 climate pact signed by nations to address climate change by curbing carbon
emissions and other harmful activities.

“We find that Philippines has a long way to go to halt emissions growth and get into a Paris Agreement
compatible pathway,” climate policy analyst Paola Parra told ABS-CBN News through an online
correspondence two days after the UN Climate Action Summit last Sept. 23.

“A clear example is the electricity sector, where there are plans to continue increasing substantially the
role of coal, locking-in the country into a carbon intensive pathway for decades,” wrote Parra, who is the
Decarbonisation Strategies Team Lead for Climate Analytics, a global non-profit climate science and
policy institute that has done extensive research and reports on the effectiveness of national climate
policies.

In a forum during the Climate Week in New York, Parra led a Climate Analytics discussion on what
countries can do to hit targets such as phasing out coal.

Parra said carbon emissions should peak at 2020 if the world wants to limit global heating by 1.5
degrees Celsius. At this level, the occurrence of severe heatwaves and droughts can be reduced.

Parra said the world should have also reached net zero by 2070 when it comes to emissions. This means
that either countries have eliminated carbon emissions or emissions have been balanced by offsetting it
with carbon-removal methods such as tree planting. However, she said countries should reach carbon
dioxide net neutrality at a much earlier date.

Currently, Climate Analytics classifies the Philippines, based on its Intended Nationally Determined
Contributions (INDC) document submitted in 2015, as compatible with the two degrees Celsius goal,
which is considered still too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement.

The INDC states the Philippines’ pledge to reduce emissions by 70 percent below business as usual (BAU)
levels by 2030. However, this is a conditional target that is reliant on matching financial support from
developed countries.
“We assess both current targets and projected emissions levels for the Philippines and find that there is
a lot of uncertainty around the way that the Philippines defined its NDC (nationally determined
contributions) target, and very little transparency around the underlying BAU scenario behind it, as well
as the contribution of different sectors to the achievement of the NDC,” Parra told ABS-CBN News.

“In addition, the draft document from the Climate Change Commission shows a seemingly less
ambitious target, which goes completely against the spirit of the Paris Agreement ambitious cycle,” she
said.

However, the Climate Change Commission (CCC), through a letter, told ABS-CBN that the commitment is
"within the range of what is considered to be a fair share of global effort."

The CCC also assured that "upon the ratification to the Paris Agreement, the administration made it
clear that the Philippines will re-submit its NDC, making the INDC [its] unofficial submission."

While several nations increased their climate pledges last month - from extensive use of renewable
energy to the ban of coal plants, the Philippines, which used to play a more high-profile role among
climate-vulnerable countries, did not give any statement and did not send a high-level delegation to the
UN Climate Action Summit.

As the Philippines has yet to re-submit its NDC, global think-tank Climate Analytics expressed concern
over the country’s energy policy.

DIRTY ENERGY

Parra and Climate Analytics estimate that the “massive expansion of coal-fired power plants” in the
Philippines would mean that coal power generation in the country will only “peak” by 2035 and phased
out by 2062.

“This far exceeds the phase-out date derived from regional benchmarks for Paris Agreement compatible
scenarios, which sees coal-fired power being phased out in the ASEAN region at the latest by 2040,”
Parra said.

Coal is the biggest contributor to human-made climate change as its continued combustion releases
carbon dioxide in an increasingly warmer atmosphere.

A report released last August of research group Fitch Solutions says the Philippines’ energy industry
expansions will continue to be driven by coal.

The report said that while renewable energy will increase, coal remains dominant and will represent 59
percent of the country’s power mix by 2028 based on Fitch Solutions’ forecast.

It also cited the government’s approval of several coal plant projects such as the supercritical “clean”
coal-fired power plants in Bataan and Atimonan, Quezon. These power plants are considered more
efficient but not necessarily emission-free.

While the Philippines is not a high-emitter country, for the Paris Agreement plan to work, all countries
need to contribute.

Parra said the Philippines’ continued plans to tap coal “stands in stark contrast with the sense of urgency
that one would expect considering that the Philippines is one of the most vulnerable countries to
climate change impacts in the world.”

It also goes against the trend as planned projects for coal shrunk by 75 percent globally in the last five
years, according to Parra.

A May 2019 report of Climate Analytics on the Southeast Asian region states that while renewable
energy share is decreasing in the Philippines (from 26 percent in 2000 to 15 percent in 2015).

In its letter, the Climate Change Commission acknowledged the effects of climate change on human
populations and ecosystems.

"Severe flooding and more intense typhoons, for example, become the new normal. Extreme
temperatures are also manifestations of climate change, increasing the number of cold days in cold
areas, such as in the United States, or the number of very warm days, such as in the tropics like the
Philippines," it said.
It cited the Paris Agreement and how nations agreed to limit greenhouse gas emissions but at the same
time recognizing "the need for the developing countries to reach the maximum potential of economic
development."

"As stated under Article 4 of the [Paris] Agreement, 'peaking [of greenhouse gas emissions] will take
longer for developing country parties' like the Philippines," CCC said.

"The right of developing countries to development space must be respected. Given the means, the
country is more than ready to transition to low-carbon and sustainable development," the agency said.
"But addressing the impacts of climate change requires our undivided attention. Therefore, the
Philippines put forth adaptation as the core of our long-term development strategies and has promoted
national climate policies to avert losses and build our resilience."

The agency said greater and more ambitious efforts to reduce emissions will come from developed
nations "given their means and historical responsibility to the accumulation of [greenhouse gases] in the
atmosphere."

It also pointed out that the current greenhouse gases footprint of the Philippines is at 0.3 percent -
"small compared to the contribution of industrial countries of the world, but our geographical location
makes us one of the most vulnerable countries."

Meanwhile, Red Constantino, executive director of the Institute for Climate and Sustainable Cities, said
they cannot comment on the numbers until the government officially submits its new NDC.

“Government is in serious debates and this is welcome. The agencies need space to duke things out as
we have always insisted the NDC is the country’s new industrial investment strategy,” he told ABS-CBN
News.

Constantino said there is no reason to reduce the Philippines’ conditional target as “in effect, we would
be reducing what those historically responsible are obliged to provide.”

“Instead, we must increase the conditional target, even as we offer a separate unconditional one, to
show what we are already doing and to shame big emitters into cutting emissions far more and far
earlier,” he said.

ABS-CBN News reached out to the Department of Energy for comments but it has yet to receive its
reply, as of this updated posting.

It is unclear when the Philippine government will be submitting its updated NDC but all countries are
expected to submit more ambitious goals by 2020.

Climate Analytics said the global outlook is not positive as well with only a few countries making
ambitious pledges.

Parra said the world is still far from reaching peak coal emissions, which should ideally be done by 2020.

At least 67 countries have pledged to enhance their climate commitments by 2020 at the historic UN
Climate Action Summit in New York last month, which saw Pope Francis and Swedish activist Greta
Thunberg criticize the world for insufficient climate action.

However, many of these are developing countries and in total, the 67 only represent eight percent of
global emissions. In addition to these, 14 countries - many from Europe, representing 10.1 percent of
emissions, promised to update their commitments next year.

Greenpeace Southeast Asia's executive director Yeb Sano described the promises of world leaders at the
summit as "weak" or "empty."

He called it a betrayal of the young people who led climate strikes all over the world and "against the
people at the frontlines who experience the most severe impacts of climate change."

Agreeing with Thunberg, Sano said the main takeaway at the high-profile event is that "the people
cannot forgive the complicity of governments for failing to take action and for continuing to disappoint."

Climate Analytics senior policy analyst Claire Stockwell said the current level of commitment around the
world is “insufficient.”
Parra said it is a product of the very nature of the Paris Agreement, which takes on a bottom-up
approach.

It meant that it was possible to gather everyone and make them offer whatever they can deliver.

“The price of that is nobody knew how many countries will commit,” Parra said. “You are waiting to see
what was happening.”

Parra pointed out that nations will need to step up and at the same time adapt appropriate plans that
will allow them to reach global climate targets.

For Southeast Asia, Climate Analytics projects a need to reach zero emissions by 2050 through a long-
term plan to use 100 percent renewable energy power generation and other measures.

“Even if we stop building coal power plants today, it’s still not enough to retire power plants earlier,”
Parra warned.

“What we need is transformational change,” Stockwell said, adding that the next year or so leading to
the 2020 climate negotiations will be crucial for governments to figure out how to drastically restructure
their industries to meet climate targets.