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Hildebrand, Ott & Gray, Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers, 2nd edition, Chapter 7 1
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
Hildebrand, Ott & Gray, Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers, 2nd edition, Chapter 7 2
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
Hildebrand, Ott & Gray, Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers, 2nd edition, Chapter 7 3
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
Section 7.1
Point Estimation
Hildebrand, Ott & Gray, Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers, 2nd edition, Chapter 7 4
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
Point Estimation
• Concept: Use the sample data to come up with a
single number as an approximate value
of the population parameter
σ2 S2
π πˆ
E(Estimator) = Parameter
Long-run average
Hildebrand, Ott & Gray, Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers, 2nd edition, Chapter 7 7
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
Example: E( Y) = µ
⇒ Sample mean is an unbiased estimator
of the population mean.
µ =?
• The long-run average of all possible values of Y
equals µ.
Hildebrand, Ott & Gray, Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers, 2nd edition, Chapter 7 8
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
Example: E(S2) = σ2
σ2 = ?
• The long-run average of all possible values of S2 equals σ2
• If a divisor of n was used to calculate S2, then E(S2) ≠ σ2
Hildebrand, Ott & Gray, Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers, 2nd edition, Chapter 7 9
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
7.1 Point Estimation
Section 7.2
Interval Estimation of a Mean,
Known Standard Deviation
Hildebrand, Ott & Gray, Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers, 2nd edition, Chapter 7 11
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
Hildebrand, Ott & Gray, Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers, 2nd edition, Chapter 7 12
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
7.2 Interval Estimation of a Mean,
Known Standard Deviation
• Procedure for constructing a C.I. for µ (σ known)
Start with a random sample from a normal distribution.
1. Estimator for µ is Y.
2. Y is normally distributed with mean µ
and standard error σ Y = σy / n
3. Standardize the sample mean:
Y-µ
Z=
σ/ n
4. Specify the confidence level, say 95%.
Hildebrand, Ott & Gray, Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers, 2nd edition, Chapter 7 13
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Hildebrand, Ott & Gray, Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers, 2nd edition, Chapter 7 14
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
Y ± 1 .96 σ / n ( )
Hildebrand, Ott & Gray, Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers, 2nd edition, Chapter 7 15
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
7.2 Interval Estimation of a Mean,
Known Standard Deviation
• Percentiles of the Z-distribution
95% ⇒ zα/2 = z.025 = 1.96
Y ± zα/2 (σ / n)
Hildebrand, Ott & Gray, Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers, 2nd edition, Chapter 7 16
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
Hildebrand, Ott & Gray, Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers, 2nd edition, Chapter 7 17
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
Hildebrand, Ott & Gray, Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers, 2nd edition, Chapter 7 18
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
7.2 Interval Estimation of a Mean,
Known Standard Deviation
• Minitab output for part (a) of Exercise 7.9
One-Sample Z: Tax(%)
Hildebrand, Ott & Gray, Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers, 2nd edition, Chapter 7 19
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
Hildebrand, Ott & Gray, Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers, 2nd edition, Chapter 7 20
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
One-Sample Z: Tax(%)
Hildebrand, Ott & Gray, Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers, 2nd edition, Chapter 7 21
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
7.2 Interval Estimation of a Mean,
Known Standard Deviation
7.10: Give a careful verbal interpretation of the confidence
interval in part (a) of Exercise 7.9.
22.23 25.74
Sample No. 1
Sample No. 2
Sample No. 3
• •
• •
• •
Real number line
True µ = ?
• 95% of the CI’s you could construct would contain µ and 5% would not.
• Does the confidence interval [22.23, 25.74] contain µ? We don’t know.
Hildebrand, Ott & Gray, Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers, 2nd edition, Chapter 7 22
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
Rephrased:
Hildebrand, Ott & Gray, Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers, 2nd edition, Chapter 7 23
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60
50
40
30
20
10
1
15 20 25 30 35
Tax(%)
Hildebrand, Ott & Gray, Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers, 2nd edition, Chapter 7 25
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
Answer:
Regardless of the nature of the population distribution,
the sampling distribution of Y is nearly normal as long as
the sample size is large enough because of the Central
Limit Theorem.
Is n = 20 large enough?
Unless the distribution of the population is markedly non-
normal, a sample of size 20 should be large enough for
the CLT to apply.
Hildebrand, Ott & Gray, Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers, 2nd edition, Chapter 7 26
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
Hildebrand, Ott & Gray, Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers, 2nd edition, Chapter 7 27
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Section 7.3
Confidence Intervals
for a Proportion
Hildebrand, Ott & Gray, Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers, 2nd edition, Chapter 7 28
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
• Preliminary concepts
• For a binomial random variable:
E(Y) = nπ and V(Y) = nπ (1 - π)
• Y is the total number of successes in n trials.
• A binomial random variable can be
approximated by a normal random variable
because of the Central Limit Theorem.
∧
• The sample proportion, denoted by π , is
∧
π = Y/n
Hildebrand, Ott & Gray, Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers, 2nd edition, Chapter 7 29
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
Hildebrand, Ott & Gray, Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers, 2nd edition, Chapter 7 32
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
∧ ∧ ∧
π ± zα / 2 π (1 − π ) / n
Hildebrand, Ott & Gray, Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers, 2nd edition, Chapter 7 34
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
Hildebrand, Ott & Gray, Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers, 2nd edition, Chapter 7 35
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
Hildebrand, Ott & Gray, Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers, 2nd edition, Chapter 7 36
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
Section 7.4
How Large a Sample is Needed?
Hildebrand, Ott & Gray, Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers, 2nd edition, Chapter 7 37
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
Parameter Estimate
[?] [Based on data]
• In General
• Find the sample size (n) so that the bound on the error
of estimation (E) will hold with a high probability
(1 - α).
• Equivalently, find n so that the width (2E) of a
100 (1 - α)% confidence interval does not exceed a
certain bound.
• E is measured in standard deviations of Y, where
E = zα / 2 (σ / n )
⇒ n = zα2 / 2 σ 2 / E 2
• Need to specify E, 1 - α and σ to find n.
Hildebrand, Ott & Gray, Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers, 2nd edition, Chapter 7 40
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
Exercise 7.45:
E = ± $500, σ = $10,000, 1-α = .95
n = zα2 / 2 σ 2 / E 2
= (1.96) 2 (10,000) 2 /(500) 2
= 1537
Hildebrand, Ott & Gray, Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers, 2nd edition, Chapter 7 41
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
Hildebrand, Ott & Gray, Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers, 2nd edition, Chapter 7 42
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
7.4 How Large a Sample is Needed?
σ πˆ = π (1 − π ) / n
⇒ E = zα / 2 π (1 − π ) / n
⇒ n = ( zα2 / 2 / E 2 ) π (1 − π )
Hildebrand, Ott & Gray, Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers, 2nd edition, Chapter 7 43
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
n = ( zα2 / 2 / E 2 ) (1/4 )
Exercise 7.69:
The utility wants a 90% confidence interval for the
proportion with a width of no more than .04. How
many meters must be sampled, if one makes no
particular assumption about the correct
proportion?
2
(
n = (1.645 ) / (.02 )
2
(¼ ) = 1692 )
Hildebrand, Ott & Gray, Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers, 2nd edition, Chapter 7 44
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
n = 863
Hildebrand, Ott & Gray, Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers, 2nd edition, Chapter 7 45
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
7.4 How Large a Sample is Needed?
Hildebrand, Ott & Gray, Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers, 2nd edition, Chapter 7 46
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
Exercise 7.69:
c. Does the assumption in part (b) lead to a
substantial reduction in the required
sample size?
Hildebrand, Ott & Gray, Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers, 2nd edition, Chapter 7 47
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Section 7.5
The t Distribution
Hildebrand, Ott & Gray, Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers, 2nd edition, Chapter 7 48
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
7.5 The t Distribution
• Recall
Y − µ
Z =
σ / n
has a standard normal distribution.
Hildebrand, Ott & Gray, Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers, 2nd edition, Chapter 7 49
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
Figure 7.8: A
t distribution with a -----
-----Normal
Normal Distribution
superimposed _____ t
___
Hildebrand, Ott & Gray, Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers, 2nd edition, Chapter 7 50
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
Hildebrand, Ott & Gray, Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers, 2nd edition, Chapter 7 51
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
7.5 The t Distribution
• For example, with n=10, the d.f. = 9, and P(t9 > 2.262) = .025
Hildebrand, Ott & Gray, Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers, 2nd edition, Chapter 7 52
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
Section 7.6
Confidence Intervals
with the t Distribution
Hildebrand, Ott & Gray, Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers, 2nd edition, Chapter 7 53
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
Y ± zα / 2 s / n ( )
• Also, need to replace zα/2 by tα/2.
Hildebrand, Ott & Gray, Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers, 2nd edition, Chapter 7 54
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
7.6 Confidence Intervals with the t Distribution
Hildebrand, Ott & Gray, Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers, 2nd edition, Chapter 7 55
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
Exercise 7.36:
A random sample of 20 taste-testers rate the quality of a proposed
new product on a 0-100 scale. The ordered scores are
16 20 31 50 50 50 51 53 53 55
57 59 60 60 61 65 67 67 81 92
Minitab output follows. A box plot is shown in Figure 7.12
One-Sample T: Scores
Variable N Mean StDev SE Mean 95% CI
Scores 20 54.9000 17.7108 3.9603 (46.6111, 63.1889)
Hildebrand, Ott & Gray, Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers, 2nd edition, Chapter 7 56
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
90
80
70
60
Scores
50
40
30
20
10
Hildebrand, Ott & Gray, Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers, 2nd edition, Chapter 7 58
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
60
50
40
30
20
10
1
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Scores
Hildebrand, Ott & Gray, Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers, 2nd edition, Chapter 7 60
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
7.6 Confidence Intervals with the t Distribution
Hildebrand, Ott & Gray, Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers, 2nd edition, Chapter 7 61
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Section 7.7
Assumptions for Interval
Estimation
Hildebrand, Ott & Gray, Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers, 2nd edition, Chapter 7 62
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
Hildebrand, Ott & Gray, Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers, 2nd edition, Chapter 7 64
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
Hildebrand, Ott & Gray, Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers, 2nd edition, Chapter 7 65
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
900
800
SALES
700
600
500
1 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60
Index
Hildebrand, Ott & Gray, Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers, 2nd edition, Chapter 7 70
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
Hildebrand, Ott & Gray, Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers, 2nd edition, Chapter 7 71
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
Keywords: Chapter 7
Hildebrand, Ott & Gray, Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers, 2nd edition, Chapter 7 72
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
Summary of Chapter 7
Summary of Chapter 7
Hildebrand, Ott & Gray, Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers, 2nd edition, Chapter 7 74
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
YES
IS USE:
IS IT A nπˆ - 5 ≥ 0 ∧ ∧ ∧
YES
C.I. FOR AND π ± zα / 2 π(1 − π) / n
π? nπˆ + 5 ≤ n
?
USE A t-INTERVAL:
NO s
NO y ± tα / 2, n −1
n
IS IT A YES IS σ
USE A Z-INTERVAL:
KNOWN?
( )
C.I. FOR
µ? YES
y ± zα / 2 σ / n
Hildebrand, Ott & Gray, Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers, 2nd edition, Chapter 7 75
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.