Predictive Simulation

& Big Data Analytics

ISD Analytics

“Predict a better future”

Overview

Simulation can play a vital role in the emerging $billion field of Big Data
analytics to support Government policy and business strategy decisions

Overview
 How simulation plays a key part in the Big Data Predictive Analytics process
 Introduce Simulait simulation-based consumer analytics platform
 Case studies: water, energy, emergence response, retail, transport
 Simulait Online – simulation in the cloud for on-demand access and large scale
simulations

“Predict a better future”

 Data Analytics & Decision Process
Past
Observe
Descriptive Analytics
Business Questions:
What happened?
Why did it happen?
What is happening?
Why is it happening?
Solutions:
Data mining & forensics
Real-time analytics & mining
Market segmentation
Reporting & dashboards
Ad-hoc database queries
* Based on Gartner’s model of analytics
Future
Predict
Predictive Analytics
Business Questions:
What is likely to happen?
Solutions:
Simulation
Statistics & linear regression
Predictive data-mining
Forecasting & trend reporting
Less data, greater insight, greater value
“Predict a better future”
Influence
Prescriptive Analytics
Business Questions:
What should I do about it?
How do I influence the future?
What are the consequences?
Solutions:
Simulation
Optimisation
 Projection vs Prediction
Traditional statistical approaches project future behaviour by extrapolating
past behaviour
 Observe and forecast what people do but not “why” they do it
 Unable to effectively represent complex consumer behavior
 Limited functionality – unable to address a broad range of business problems
 Past demand is not always a good predictor of the future

10 000

Influence future sales by testing

strategies with Simulait

1000
Total Sales

Changing population
& consumer trends

100

0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
“Predict a better future”
SimulAIt – An Analogy
SimulAIt is a real life SimCity application where businesses or Government can
predict and test strategies to influence the behaviour of large populations
 Diverse domains: water, energy, emergency response, retail, transport, ...
 Diverse applications: strategy, policy, pricing, demand forecasting, marketing,
community behaviour and social planning, new product uptake, etc....
 Global applicability: Australia, Europe, USA
 Cloud solution: SimulAIt Online can be accessed on-demand using a web browser

“Predict a better future”

Simulait: A Truly Predictive Approach
 Accurate: proven approach, demonstrated over 95% accuracy
 Model not built on past demand data – demand data used to validate the model
 Accuracy due to greater representation of a broad range of consumer factors
 Benefits are more than accuracy – it’s the scenarios that you can test with it!!

“Predict a better future”

Simulait Architecture

“Predict a better future”

Case Study 1: Victorian Water Utilities
Objectives
 Isolate and quantify the effectiveness of past water conservation strategies – economic,
regulatory, social (communications) & environmental

 Forecast bounce-back in water demand from easing restrictions & price increases

 Assess impact of product uptake on demand and revenue

 Build a business case to industry regulators – pricing review

 Build demographic demand profiles

 Blind validation: Used 4 yrs of demand data to calibrate outdoor water use and then
forecast next 6 years of demand without access to actual demand data

“Predict a better future”

Case Study 1: Victorian Water Utilities
Blind validation results
Average monthly household water consumption
35

30
Water consumption

25

20

15

10
Simulated
5 Actual-calibration data
Actual - blind validation data
0

Jul-00 Jul-01 Jul-02 Jul-03 Jul-04 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10

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Case Study 1: Victorian Water Utilities
Key outcomes and benefits

 Informed capital expenditure, corporate plans, water restriction schedules

 Rigorous business case to industry regulators to maximise product price and

revenue

 Isolated and quantified the effectiveness of past & future strategies (campaign
analysis)

 Informed & increased ROI on future strategies

“Predict a better future”

Case Study 2: Water in USA & France
Key outcomes and benefits
 Model transferable to different countries
 Better for long term forecasting – tendering, strategic & financial planning, design
future cities, etc...
 Support water conservation, regulation, new water rates, impact of recession, etc...

Calibration
point

>90%
Accuracy

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Case Study 3: Rebates/Retail
Objective
 Identify a mix of products and prices for the water rebates program that maximises
efficiency and keeps within the program budget
 Three projects, and now a 3 year license to 2015
Approach
 Simulated 2 million households, 4.5 million consumers
 Incorporated consumer preference and affordability, and product age, failure and
price
 Simulated product uptake and efficiency with different prices
Key outcomes and benefits
 Accurate predictions of product up-take and budget spend
 Prevented budgets blow-outs
 Cost/benefit (triple bottom line) analysis of different strategies
 Forecast the ROI of different demographics and regions, and to assist with targeted
(micro)-marketing of the rebate program

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 Case Study 4: Energy Customer Personalization
Using 1% of CRM data in the first 6 months, Simulait was able to accurately
predict what each specific customer will do, and why, for the next 2 years!!!
Energy load forecasting accuracy
Total Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2008 99.0% 99.2% 97.9% 98.8% 98.0% 95.0% 98.5% 99.6% 97.0% 99.6% 98.7% 96.5% 85.0%

2009 99.8% 96.7% 99.3% 99.3% 99.0% 98.9% 98.4% 98.8% 95.1% 97.3% 93.1% 98.6% 98.3%

2010 98.3% 91.9% 97.9% 97.1% 97.6% 98.6% 98.1% 99.1% 97.1% 87.8%

400 Calibration
350
Actual
Prediction
300 Forecast

250

200

150

100

50

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Case Study 5: Energy - EV Uptake & Transport
Objective
 Predict the uptake of Electric Vehicles over time to 2040

 Predict usage and charging behaviour of electric vehicles

 Impact on the electricity network (extra peak load) to support reliability and quality
risk management

“Predict a better future”

Case Study 5: Energy - EV Uptake & Transport
Approach
 EV Uptake consumer decision model
 Simulated the new and used vehicle market across Australia
 Considers many dynamic factors: consumer type, petrol and elec price, car
range, charge times, charge infrastructure, upfront price, ongoing costs, dwelling
suitability, battery replacement, depreciation, market penetration, etc...
 EV usage: transport/activity model
 Model each consumer’s daily activities and transport/vehicle use
 Factors include: consumer type (e.g. occupation, family structure), day of week,
number of vehicles in the household, activity types (work, school, shopping,
entertainment, family/social visits, etc...)
 Other factors: passenger trips, infant trips to carers if both parents working,
separate household activities for independents, vacation from work (e.g. for
parents during school holidays), etc...
 EV charging and increase in peak demand
 Charge times and location: home, work, fuel station, shopping centre, etc..
 Other complex factors: power point upgrades, vehicle-to-grid system

“Predict a better future”

Case Study 6: Emergency response - bushfire

Following the 2009 bushfires that claimed 173 lives, the Victorian Royal
Commission identified that

“...strategies must reflect how people actually behave... Timely and accurate
warnings can provide triggers, but the content and delivery must be carefully
developed to elicit the right response”

“Predict a better future”

Case Study 6: Emergency response - bushfire
Objective
 Model community behaviour to bushfires and warnings to support bushfire
strategy and policy, and ultimately save lives
 The model predicts:
 What people do and when: Stay, leave or “wait and see”
 Where will people go: neighbours, designated shelter, leave region, open area

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Case Study 6: Emergency response - bushfire
Approach
 Based on a health model of behaviour change – individual’s life is at risk
 Potential to be applied to support health policy and manage the unsustainably
increasing health costs
 Given where people are, who they are, what they are observing, the
warnings they are receiving (and which mediums, e.g. radio, text, etc.), and
the progression of the bushfire, we determine the level of threat,
vulnerability and uncertainty for each individual/family, and thus response
Level of
motivation Wait Wait
to act

Stay Leave

Decision Decision
threshold threshold
Perceived
Threat

Wait Wait

Wait Wait

Perceived Vulnerability
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Case Study 6: Emergency response - bushfire
Validation & outcomes
 Applied the model to two bushfires in Victoria and South Australia and
demonstrated >90% accuracy
 Currently assessing hypothetical bushfire scenarios to support bushfire
policy and strategy
 Can be applied in emergency response situations beyond bushfires...

“Predict a better future”

SimulAIt Online (SOL)
 Access SimulAIt via a web browser
 SimulAIt Online allows:
 Access validated models online
 Add many users
 Create multiple scenarios – test assumptions and what-if analysis
 Share scenarios (models), results, notes and descriptions
 Refresh data and configure assumptions, parameters, etc...
 Run simulations
 Download results – disaggregated via region and time or other factor

 Benefits
 On-demand access to models, for technical and non-technical users
 Control, visibility, ease of use
 Facilitates collaboration and consistency: share scenarios and results
 Maximise ROI: execute many scenarios when required
 Hosted solution: no installation of software or hardware required to run large
scale simulations

“Predict a better future”

Case Study 7: Vic ESC & Retailers
Challenge
 Limited availability of suitable data and forecasting models presents a
challenge for regional water retailers to produce accurate forecasts for their
pricing review

Approach
 Team members collaboratively used SOL to create validated models with
minimal data

Key outcomes and benefits

 SOL enabled team members to access, configure, validate, and share
models and forecast results
 Demand forecasts were used to support their pricing review

“Predict a better future”

Summary
 Simulation can add significant value to support strategic decision making
and policy for Government and business
 Unique and important role to play in “Big Data”
 Provide the “right” information to make better decisions: predict and
how to influence
 Simulait is a practical approach for problems involving consumers and
populations: i.e. human behaviour
 High level of accuracy and functionality
 Demonstrated in various domains and countries with minimal
configuration
 Simulait Online web/cloud based solution provides on demand access for
users globally
 Collaborative tool: access, share, run scenarios, and download results
 Access to “limitless” computing power to run large scale scenarios

“Predict a better future”

 Questions?

ISD Analytics
27 Chesser Street,
Adelaide, South Australia, 5000

Phone: +61 8 7200 3589

info@isdanalytics.com
www. isdanalytics.com

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SOL Technical Overview
SimulAIt Online (SOL)
SimulAIt Hosting Centre

CPU On Demand Web User Interface

Users
• Configure scenarios
SOL
Internet • View/compare results
Server
Application
Scenarios
& Results

SimulAIt Platform and Models (SPM)

Dynamic Multi- New/Updated

Dimensional SimulAIt Models
Database Micro-Simulation Models
Engine Domain Specific Data utilised:
Models
Models • Market research &
Models
(water, energy, social data
retail, f inance, ...) • Econometric &
statistical data
Rules, behaviors, • Engineering and
Census Population
logic, reasoning, ... environmental data
Data • Customer data
Dynamics
(billing, purchases....)

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 Main SOL screen
Scenario menu items Session messages Admin menu items

User &
Model type logout

Session
Scenario
message
groups
log

Scenarios

Active
scenario

Working
pane

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Scenario: Configuration
Time associated with
parameter values

Config input
type

Parameters
tree:
hierarchical
to reduce
complexity

Slide to increase
working pane

Time explicit
parameter
values (cells)

Scroll cells
through time
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Run scenario – SimulAIt!

Start simulating
the scenario

Set the scenario

start and end
times

Region tree

Selected regions

Save the selected

regions for the
scenario
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 Scenario: Results

Range of results to
download:

Water, energy, carbon,

revenue, etc.

Monthly, yearly

Disaggregated into
different regions,
appliances

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Outputs: Monthly Demand

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Outputs: Yearly Demand

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Outputs: Household Usage

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