14003 2

12003 Column C Column D Column E Column F 1.8

10003 1.6

8003 1.4

6003 1.2

4003 1

2003 0.8

3 0.6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Promedio Promedio Ratio Valor

Año Trimestre Ventas (Miles) Movil (5 Movil Irregular y/o
Trimestres) Centrado Estacional
I 2,250
II 1,737 3417.00
2002
III 2,412 3733.00 3575.00 0.675
IV 7,269 3834.50 3783.75 1.921
I 3,514 4096.25 3965.38 0.886 TRIMESTRE 1
II 2,143 4043.00 4069.63 0.527 TRIMESTRE 2
2003
III 3,459 4480.50 4261.75 0.812 TRIMESTRE 3
IV 7,056 4760.38 4620.44 1.527 TRIMESTRE 4
I 4,120 4124.50 4442.44 0.927
II 2,766 4423.75 4274.13 0.647
2004
III 2,556 5680.75 5052.25 0.506
IV 8,253 5797.00 5738.88 1.438
I 5,491 4867.38 4813.88 1.141
II 4,382 6555.75 5711.56 0.767
2005
III 4,315 6595.00 6575.38 0.656
IV 12,035 6423.50 6509.25 1.849
I 5,648 6555.50 6489.50 0.870
II 3,696 6821.00 6688.25 0.553
2006
III 4,843
IV 13,097
 Mes (t) Ventas (yt) t x Yt t² Año

0.96 1 2353.20 2353.20 1.00

0.62 2 2786.38 5572.75 4.00
2006
0.66 3 3642.85 10928.56 9.00
1.68 4 4317.00 17268.00 16.00
0.96 0.96 5 3675.17 18375.87 25.00
0.62 0.62 6 3437.65 20625.93 36.00
0.66 0.66 7 5224.14 36568.99 49.00
1.68 1.68 8 4190.50 33524.01 64.00
0.96 9 4308.97 38780.73 81.00
0.62 10 4437.03 44370.29 100.00
0.66 11 3860.34 42463.71 121.00
1.68 12 4901.39 58816.68 144.00
0.96 13 5742.85 74657.09 169.00
0.62 14 7029.31 98410.28 196.00
0.66 15 6516.96 97754.43 225.00
1.68 16 7147.49 114359.83 256.00
0.96 17 5907.05 100419.92 289.00
0.62 18 5928.87 106719.68 324.00
0.66 19 7314.40 138973.65 361.00
1.68 20 7778.20 155564.05 400.00

t Yt t x Yt t²
210 100499.76964 1216507.659 2870
t Promedio Y Promedio
10.5 5024.9884822

B(1) 242.496 Pendiente

B(0) 2478.777 Intercepción

 Pronóstico
Pronóstico de Índice
Trimestre Tiempo Trimestral
Tendencia Estacional (miles)
1 21 7571.20 0.96 7239.16
2 22 7813.70 0.62 4870.98
3 23 8056.19 0.66 5334.15
4 24 8298.69 1.68 13973.40
 14003 2

12003 Column C Column D Column E Column F 1.8

10003 1.6

8003 1.4

6003 1.2

4003 1

2003 0.8

3 0.6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Promedio Promedio Ratio Valor

Año Trimestre Ventas (Miles) Movil (5 Movil Irregular y/o
Trimestres) Centrado Estacional
I 3,200
II 7,658 4415.50
2002
III 4,420 4529.00 4472.25 0.988
IV 2,384 4784.50 4656.75 0.512
I 3,654 5103.25 4943.88 0.739 TRIMESTRE 1
II 8,680 4995.50 5049.38 1.719 TRIMESTRE 2
2003
III 5,695 5950.75 5473.13 1.041 TRIMESTRE 3
IV 1,953 6514.00 6232.38 0.313 TRIMESTRE 4
I 4,742 6752.00 6633.00 0.715
II 13,673 6948.00 6850.00 1.996
2004
III 6,640 7047.88 6997.94 0.949
IV 2,737 7412.63 7230.25 0.379
I 3,486 6483.13 6498.56 0.536
II 13,186 6401.25 6442.19 2.047
2005
III 5,448 7461.75 6931.50 0.786
IV 3,485 8313.00 7887.38 0.442
I 7,728 9010.00 8661.50 0.892
II 16,591 8967.75 8988.88 1.846
2006
III 8,236
IV 3,316
 Mes (t) Ventas (yt) t x Yt t² Año

0.96 1 3346.77 3346.77 1.00

0.62 2 12284.44 24568.88 4.00
2006
0.66 3 6675.54 20026.63 9.00
1.68 4 1415.84 5663.35 16.00
0.72 0.96 5 3821.60 19107.98 25.00
1.90 0.62 6 13923.86 83543.18 36.00
0.94 0.66 7 8601.18 60208.27 49.00
0.41 1.68 8 1159.87 9278.97 64.00
0.96 9 4959.50 44635.49 81.00
0.62 10 21933.29 219332.94 100.00
0.66 11 10028.42 110312.61 121.00
1.68 12 1625.48 19505.79 144.00
0.96 13 3645.89 47396.58 169.00
0.62 14 21152.08 296129.15 196.00
0.66 15 8228.14 123422.05 225.00
1.68 16 2069.71 33115.41 256.00
0.96 17 8082.46 137401.76 289.00
0.62 18 26614.15 479054.71 324.00
0.66 19 12438.86 236338.42 361.00
1.68 20 1969.35 39386.91 400.00

t Yt t x Yt t²
210 173976.44393 2011775.8744 2870
t Promedio Y Promedio
10.5 8698.8221964

B(1) 278.230 Pendiente

B(0) 5777.403 Intercepción

 Pronóstico
Pronóstico de Índice
Trimestre Tiempo Trimestral
Tendencia Estacional (miles)
1 21 11620.24 0.72 8374.29
2 22 11898.47 1.90 22629.79
3 23 12176.70 0.94 11457.31
4 24 12454.93 0.41 5124.28