ANALYSIS OF ENSO & IOD EFFECT ON SOY PRODUCTION IN INDONESIA

EPIFANIA N. A. SUDE, HALMAR HALIDE1

1
Professor and senior research of Geohydrometeorology

Student Deoartemen Physics, Geophysics Program, Hasanuddin

Abstrack
Climate patterns associated with El Niño and La Niña episodes exert dominant influences on
agricultural production and food security in Southeast Asia. In Indonesia it self, ENSO and IOD can
affect Indonesia's climate and have an impact on agriculture. ENSO and IOD for soybean production
in Indonesia have not been widely studied. So in this paper I take soybean crop production as a
dependent variable. Soybeans are nicknamed Gold from the Soil, or World's Miracle given the high
quality, balanced and complete protein. In the food crop group, soybeans are the third most important
commodity after rice and corn. In addition, soybeans are also a commodity of crops which are rich in
vegetable protein which are generally consumed in the form of processed products. Consumption of
soybeans by the Indonesian people will certainly continue to increase each year. Unfortunately,
soybean demand is not directly proportional to domestic soybean production. This paper is a literature
review that juxtaposes ENSO and IOD data with soybean production.

Introduction
Climate patterns associated with El Niño and La Niña episodes exert dominant influences on
agricultural production and food security in Southeast Asia. (Naylor et al, 2002).). Studies have
demonstrated ENSO’s impact on corn yields in Zimbabwe (Cane et al 1994), soybean and corn yields
in central–eastern Argentina (Podesta et al.1999), and soybean and corn production in the
southeastern United States (Hansen et al 1998). Although the connection between ENSO and
regional climate is much more remote for these regions than for the Indo- Pacific region, successful
modelling of Indonesian cereal production in response to ENSO has been limited to date by the
country’s island geography and multiple-season crop year (Iglesias et al 1996). In Indonesia it self,
the production of rice and corn is especially vulnerable to climate variability associated with El Niño–
Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. Two of the most significant El Niño events on record occurred
during the past 20 years, and both led to severe droughts that delayed rice and corn harvests (Naylor et
al 2000; Fox 2000; Safalsky 1994; Harge 1995; Amien et al. 1996; Holmes 1999).

In addition to ENSO, there are also symptoms of climate deviations generated by the interaction of the
ocean and atmosphere in the Indian Ocean around the equator called the IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole).
This interaction resulted in high pressure in the Eastern Indian Ocean (the southern part of Java and
West Sumatra) which caused the flow of air masses that blew into the West. This gust of wind will
push the mass of water in front of it and lift the mass of water from the bottom to the surface. As a
result, SST around the coast of South Java and the West coast of Sumatra will experience a dramatic
decline, while on the east coast of Africa there will be an increase in SST (Kailaku, 2009).

Positive IOD is associated with an increase in the incidence of drought in Indonesia, especially in the
western region, while a negative IOD is associated with an increase in the frequency and intensity of
extreme rainfall that has the potential to cause flooding. IOD events that coincide with ENSO can
exacerbate extreme climate events (Surmaini & Faqih, 2016). The emergence of strong El Niño
phenomena as many as seven times throughout the last 20 years is accompanied by the phenomenon
of positive IOD which almost coincides which results in quite serious drought. Based on the events of
drought that occurred 43 times in 1844-1998, only six drought events were not related to the El Niño
phenomenon (Allan, 2000, Boer and Subbiah 2005). These conditions have a significant impact on
cultural strategies and agricultural production, especially food crops (Hamada et al. 2002).

Based on data, ENSO and IOD can affect Indonesia's climate and have an impact on agriculture, so in
this paper I take soybean crop production as a dependent variable. Soybeans are nicknamed Gold
from the Soil, or World's Miracle given the high quality, balanced and complete protein. In the food
crop group, soybeans are the third most important commodity after rice and corn. In addition,
soybeans are also a commodity of crops which are rich in vegetable protein which are generally
consumed in the form of processed products, namely: tofu, tempeh, soy sauce, tauco, soy milk and
various forms of snacks (Sudaryanto & Swastika, 2007) while for non-food industries such as paper,
printing ink, watercolors, and so on. Soybeans can be used as glycerides, such as cooking oil, ink,
varnish, margarine, and so on. Soybeans can be used for Lecithin ingredients, such as margarine,
protein isolates, soy puffs, insecticides, plastics, pharmaceutical industries, etc. (CGPRT Center
1986).

The diversity of soybean benefits has driven the high demand for soybeans in the country. In addition,
the benefits of soybeans as a cheap source of protein make soybeans increasingly in demand. The
greater population of Indonesia has the potential for increasing demand for soybeans (Rante, 2013).
Consumption of soybeans by the Indonesian people will certainly continue to increase each year
considering several considerations such as increasing population, increasing per capita income, public
awareness of food nutrition. Compared to animal protein, soybean protein is cheap and affordable for
most people (Aldillah, 2014). Unfortunately, soybean demand is not directly proportional to domestic
soybean production. Annual soybean needs are around 2.3 million tons, but the ability of national
soybean production is only around 800 thousand tons per year, so the government need to import
soybeans from abroad (Dirjenpantan, 2013).

Data and Methodology

Crop Data
Records for the crop production of soybeans were obtained from Food and Agriculture Organization
of The United Nations (FAO). Soybeans production recorded during the periode 1980 to 2017 where
fluctuating occurs along the periode. This data provide in http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QC

2000000
1500000
1000000
SOYBEANS
500000
0
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016

Figure 1: Soybeans production during the periode 1980 to 2017 (in tons)

ENSO Phases
This study analyzes the variable responses of crop production to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation
(ENSO) categorization and sustainable measures. ENSO data was recorded during the period 1980 to
2017 which is provide in https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov. In this paper, ENSO events were
categorized according to the Nino Oceanic Index (ONI). The Oceanic Nino index is based on a 3
month walking average of the spatial anomalous SST averages in the Nino region (5oN – 5oS, 120o –
170oW). A year is classified as being in the El Niño phase when SST anomalies are bigger than 0.5°C
for at least 6 consecutive months. In the case where SST anomalies are below −0.5°C, the year is
considered as being in the La Niña phase. Otherwise it is considered a neutral year. The analysed
period included 10 El Niño (1982, 1983, 1987, 1991, 1992, 1997, 2002, 2004, 2009, 2015) and 9 La
Niña (1989, 1995, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011) events.

IOD Phases
In the analysis we also used the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) recorded during the periode 1980 to 2017
by taking data every three month per year, which is provide in https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov.
Unlike ENSO, IOD only has Positive (+) and Negative (-) conditions as shown in Figure 2. IOD (+)
is characterized by warmer waters in the warmer West Indian Ocean (African Continent) compared to
the Eastern Indian Ocean ( Indonesia). Whereas IOD (-) is the opposite of IOD (+) which is by
warming the eastern part of the Indian Ocean and lower temperatures in the western part of the Indian
Ocean. This phenomenon plays an important role in the weather in Indonesia for one year. Like El
Nino, the incidence of IOD is represented by one index named Dipole Mode Index (DMI), which is
the difference in SPL in the western Indian Ocean (50o - 70oE, 10oS - 10oN) and SPL in the eastern
Indian Ocean (90o - 110o, 10oS - equator).

Figure 2: Schematic of a positive and negative IOD event http://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/e/iod/about_iod.html

Method
Correlation analysis was used to determine the closeness of the relationship between ENSO and IOD
with fluctuating soybean production in Indonesia. The correlation coefficient shows how much the
relationship occurs between two variables. The correlation equation is defined as follows (Halide et
al., 2008:
n

(p
m 1
m  p)(o m  o)
 
r 1 1
n 2 
n
2
 ( p m  p )   (o m  o ) 
2 2

 m 1   m 1 
p : Mean Value of the prediction


o : Mean value of the Observation


Correlation values (r) range from one to minus one. Getting closer to one or minus one means that the
relationship between the two variables gets stronger, conversely if the value approaches zero, the
relationship between the two variables is getting weaker. Positive values indicate the relationship is
directly proportional, while negative values indicate the relationship is inversely proportional.

Results
Enso Analysis of Soybean Production

Figure 3: Correlation between ENSO AMJ and Soybeans Production

Figure 3 shows the effect of the ENSO phenomenon on soybean production in Indonesia. When
soybean production is low, the presentation values for El Nino and La Nina are only 28.6% and
33.3%, respectively. For production, the value for El-Nino is only 28.6% and has no effect on La-
Nina. Whereas for high production occurs at La Nina 66% and also occurs when El Nino is 42.9%
even though it does not have a significant value. When soybean production is low, the presentation
values for El Nino and La Nina are only 28.6% and 33.3%, respectively. For production, the value for
El-Nino is only 28.6% and has no effect on La-Nina. Whereas for high production occurs at La Nina
66% and also occurs when El Nino is 42.9% even though it does not have a significant value. This
shows that ENSO does not have a sufficiently high influence on soybean production.

IOD Analysis of Soybean Production

Figure 4: Correlation between IOD and Soybeans Production

Figure 3 shows the effect of the ENSO phenomenon on soybean production in Indonesia. In the state
of low soybean production occurs when the positive IOD phase with a percentage of 33.3%. At the
moment abundant soybean production is characterized by a positive IOD phase of 33.3% and a
neutral IOD phase of 45.7%. Soybean production has no effect on the negative IOD phase which
shows a value of 0%. Overall, soybean production increases in the neutral IOD phase. This shows that
IOD does not have a sufficiently high influence on soybean production. This shows that IOD does not
have a sufficiently high influence on soybean production, directly.

Conclusion
The analysis of the data and information above illustrates that it is not always the case for ENSO and
IOD followed by the fluctuating amount of soybean production in Indonesia. Maybe not directly. In
some papers, the effect of ENSO and IOD on food crops has a fairly high correlation value. This can
be happen because those food crops are correlated with the rainfall that occurs in Indonesia. The
rainfall had been correlated with the ENSO and IOD, so others anlyze the effect of rainfall on food
crops production. In this paper, the correlation obtained is only about 0.2 in ENSO and 0.4 in IOD.
Does not show a strong enough value.

Acknowledgments
The author thank Food and Agriculture Organization of The United Nations (FAO) and National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for providing data that can be accessed through
their websites. Thanks to Prof. Halmar Halide for discussion and input at various points in the
manuscript. The author would like to also acknowledge the support of family, friends and others
involved in it. Wait for my another paper on other occasion.

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