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Note: Quantity and final cost of machinery is subject to monthly and yearly production
target.
Demand Forecast of Lead Acid Battery
By Automanufacturers
Actual Past Sales
Month 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
July 8,560 9,796 14,856 8,996 9,288 5,911 13,013 12,147 16,337 18,875
August 9,390 9,829 10,697 9,329 9,592 10,555 16,155 15,170 18,664 15,389
September 8,862 10,405 12,512 8,481 9,659 11,164 15,204 14,088 15,639 16,957
October 11,110 11,911 13,690 8,184 8,690 11,232 15,709 14,454 19,400 21,342
November 8,575 10,259 10,598 8,216 8,437 10,343 15,724 16,018 17,233 15,334
December 7,068 7,446 9,533 7,381 7,213 9,522 14,019 14,024 16,159 16,141
January 11,400 12,934 13,125 11,571 11,955 15,770 18,083 18,255 19,924 19,353
February 10,310 11,645 13,241 11,344 11,238 14,041 14,027 17,119 19,027 17,071
March 11,208 13,579 14,469 11,581 10,323 16,806 15,272 18,295 18,988 19,897
April 11,335 12,172 13,360 10,384 10,837 15,598 15,023 15,863 21,540 17,076
May 11,819 11,479 14,934 11,786 10,557 15,781 15,278 17,478 18,223 15,428
June 14,320 6,489 16,310 11,577 10,313 14,411 13,638 12,870 15,652 14,767
Total 125,967 129,955 159,337 120,843 120,116 153,149 183,161 187,798 218,804 209,649
Forecasted Future Sales
Month 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
July 10,968 12,613 14,505 15,956 17,551 19,306 21,237 22,299 23,414 24,585
August 11,569 13,304 15,300 16,830 18,513 20,364 22,401 23,521 24,697 25,932
September 11,006 12,657 14,555 16,011 17,612 19,373 21,311 22,376 23,495 24,670
October 12,580 14,467 16,637 18,301 20,131 22,144 24,358 25,576 26,855 28,198
November 11,340 13,041 14,997 16,497 18,147 19,961 21,957 23,055 24,208 25,418
December 11,112 12,779 14,696 16,165 17,782 19,560 21,516 22,592 23,721 24,907
January 13,577 15,614 17,956 19,751 21,726 23,899 26,289 27,603 28,983 30,433
February 12,132 13,952 16,045 17,649 19,414 21,355 23,491 24,665 25,899 27,194
March 13,087 15,050 17,308 19,038 20,942 23,036 25,340 26,607 27,937 29,334
April 12,523 14,401 16,562 18,218 20,040 22,044 24,248 25,460 26,733 28,070
May 11,622 13,365 15,370 16,907 18,598 20,458 22,503 23,629 24,810 26,050
June 9,800 11,270 12,961 14,257 15,682 17,250 18,975 19,924 20,920 21,966
Total 143,335 162,513 186,890 205,579 226,137 248,751 273,626 287,308 301,673 316,757
Note: The second table shows the forecasted sales of next 10 years. The demand has been increased by 15 % in the starting 3 years due to relaxations
given by ADP Policy 2016- 2022. After that growth rate decreases to 10% and finally reaching a low of 5% due to maturation in the market demand.
By Vehicle Owners
Year Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
2019 495 540 536 515 510 521 533 503 516 506 512
2020* 507 520 519 519 518 518 517 516 516 515 515
2021* 583 598 597 596 596 595 595 594 593 593 592
2022* 671 687 687 686 685 684 684 683 682 682 681
2023* 772 790 790 789 788 787 786 785 785 784 783
2024* 849 869 869 868 867 866 865 864 863 862 861
2025* 934 956 955 954 953 952 951 950 949 948 947
2026* 1,027 1,052 1,051 1,050 1,049 1,048 1,047 1,045 1,044 1,043 1,042
2027* 1,078 1,105 1,103 1,102 1,101 1,100 1,099 1,098 1,097 1,095 1,094
2028* 1,132 1,160 1,159 1,157 1,156 1,155 1,154 1,153 1,151 1,150 1,149
2029* 1,189 1,218 1,217 1,215 1,214 1,213 1,211 1,210 1,209 1,208 1,206
Total 9,238 9,495 9,481 9,451 9,437 9,438 9,441 9,401 9,406 9,386 9,382
Note: The demand for battery by vehicle owners is subject to the economic conditions and individual's perception of an average battery life. And it shows the
same growth pattern as demand by automanufacturers.
*Forecasted
Sales Forecast of 45 Amp Battery (in millions)
Month 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
July 439 505 580 638 702 772 849 892 937 983
August 463 532 612 673 741 815 896 941 988 1,037
September 440 506 582 640 704 775 852 895 940 987
October 503 579 665 732 805 886 974 1,023 1,074 1,128
November 454 522 600 660 726 798 878 922 968 1,017
December 444 511 588 647 711 782 861 904 949 996
January 543 625 718 790 869 956 1,052 1,104 1,159 1,217
February 485 558 642 706 777 854 940 987 1,036 1,088
March 523 602 692 762 838 921 1,014 1,064 1,117 1,173
April 501 576 662 729 802 882 970 1,018 1,069 1,123
May 465 535 615 676 744 818 900 945 992 1,042
June 392 451 518 570 627 690 759 797 837 879
Budgeted Sales (Units) 5,653 6,501 7,476 8,223 9,045 9,950 10,945 11,492 12,067 12,670
Per Unit Price (PKR) 4,500 5,040 5,645 6,322 7,081 7,931 8,882 9,948 11,142 12,479
Budgeted Sales (PKR) 25 33 42 52 64 79 97 114 134 158
Note: The forecasted sales is estimated to be 10% of the overall demand in each product category.
Jun Total
524 6,207
514 6,194
591 7,123
680 8,192
782 9,420
860 10,363
946 11,399
1,041 12,539
1,093 13,166
1,148 13,824
1,205 14,515
9,385 112,941
Production Budget
Note: The desired ending inventory is kept at 8% of next month's budgeted sales.
Production Budget