2018 International Conference on Computing, Mathematics and Engineering Technologies – iCoMET 2018
River Flow Pattern Recognition for Flood Mitigation
Muhammad Hussain Mughal
Department of Computer Science
Sukkur IBA University
Sukkur ,Pakistan
muhammad.hussain@iba-suk.edu.pk
Abstract— Climate change increasing variation of Indus
river flow pattern and impact on the community
compelled the national and international organization to
develop a sustainable proactive solution for flood
mitigation. We are investigating the strategy that can save
recurring cost of recovery and rehabilitation imposed
after every flood disaster. A great literature has been
published demonstrating statistically analysis of flood
impact and proposed solution of reservoirs. Other’s
modeled flood mathematically, to predict future disasters.
In this paper, we proposed a deterministic computational
model supported by contextual knowledge base and live
monitoring of flood plain. We proposed the deterministic
approach for flow configurations and their adjustment
catering flood disaster mitigation and maintaining smooth
flow. Identifying River flow configurations are then setting
the configuration to avoid flooding are simulated for
recommendation system towards modeling autonomous
system for river flow.
Keywords- Deterministic model; Monitoring; flood
disaster; contingency planning; flow configurations, flow
pattern recognition.
I. INTRODUCTION
The climate change triggered disaster has great
impacts on the country economy[1]. These disasters jerk
down the growth of country development and prosperity
graph downward. In this paper, our proposal is based on
the application of the determinism in theoretical
computer science domain. The disaster management
caused due to the unexpected flooding triggered by
climate change in the south Asia. The theme of the
entire project is to monitor, diagnose possible solution,
control and add-on management strategy based on
effectiveness and need of irrigation system. The flood
water is mainly the cause of heavy rainfall or
unpredictable patterns of snow melting mountains
during summer’s season. That caused variation in river
flow further agitated by rainfall on river belt or suburb.
With the deficiency of dams or reservoirs, which can
store that water and enable to use that water generating
electricity later. The precious unused water is being
wasted. This excess water flows out of the dams and
then makes the way towards the surroundings and
ultimately carrying everything which comes in its way.
For case study, we have selected the Indus River area as
main irrigation system network of Pakistan to apply our
deterministic model. Identifying real-time flow
configuration of five rivers with collection of bridges
generates a large search space of safe flow
configurations. From configuration flow model, the
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Zubair Ahmed Shaikh
Department of Computer Science
Mohammad Ali Jinnah University
Karachi, Pakistan
zubair.shaikh@jinnah.edu
recommendation system will map the water flow
configuration on the simulated stream of data from
WSN(Wireless Sensor data) generated by WaterGrid
[2].In the last decade, pattern recognition techniques
were utilized for water quality [3] variation.
Recommender system would be integrated with structure
information of river contextual flow symmetric
information from WaterOnto [4] an ontology of water
resources and related concepts along relationship.
Diagnosing the flood pattern and configuration of the
river flow triggering breaches are identified captured for
avoidance strategy.
II. LITERATURE REVIEW
The systems well defined structures are used to
model the automated application [5] . Theoretical
computer science has supported identification of pattern
and characterizing the situations. The string pattern
based on abstract theory opened the dimension in the
medical science. DNA structure are classified and
searched based on non-deterministic machines and
different string pattern be classified[6] on aggregation
levels of DNA string . Machine learning and automating
algorithms are used for text categorization in past[7].
The deterministic approaches also used for sewer
systems improved accuracy of sewerage water flow and
determines the impacts of rainfall on drainages for
improved prediction level[8]. We categorize the
situations based on different flow in rivers and
categorize the situation in normal, above average,
danger etc. The requirements of stakeholders translated
to machine configuration followed by authenticating the
mandate of the interacting user. The RAT( Requirement
Analysis Tool)[9] are affective to translate water
diversion and management stakeholder requirements in
natural language, categorize to types for authentication
and mapped to optimal configuration keeping the flow
normal with flood avoidance strategy. pEvoSAT [10]
was proposed for Reduction of complexity of search
space by applying SAT theory on the Boolean variables
and optimization with genetic algorithm. Pakistan is
agricultural country with major portion of economy
coming from agricultural productivity. Prospective
improvements in agricultural productivity is directly
proportional to provision of water to drought suffered
areas. Remote sensing for diagnosing the irrigation
performance is discussed in [11]. Management of
ground[12] water is remained a big challenge, hurdles in
sustainable distribution plan and developing strategy for
balancing supply-consumption problem.
 2018 International Conference on Computing, Mathematics and Engineering Technologies – iCoMET 2018

III. METHODOLGY

A. Components of flood mitigation

We proposed a deterministic model based on flow states
of the river and tagging the river flow at particular point
by distributing in different ranges. The water flow
ranges are aggregated to categories of water levels as
shown in Table 1. We assigned labels to water flow
ranges for simulation and string configuration
generation. For modeling our case study, we selected
the biggest Indus River from irrigation system of
Pakistan. We generated strings based on the flow levels
and generating all permutation of the set of all possible
flow configuration. This enables the identification of
the flood generating or dangerous situation triggering
configurations were classified into difference ranges
and tagged based on their magnitude or possible impact.
Identifying the correlation among these configuration,
factors contributing this configuration are identified,
turned up to last stable states. In case of unavoidable
situation the mitigation strategy applied by estimating
the impacts of tentative river breach on particular spot
result in loss of lives and socio-economical destruction. Figure 1. Components of deterministic river flow monitoring
We can predict the occurrence of the danger situation B. Mapping of river components to state transition
and develop the contingency planning with more graph
efficiently than based on historical data coined with
other parameters such as humidity, temperature The Indus river system of the Pakistan has ten (10)
main barrages. We represented barrages as states in our
resulting snowfall glaciers and or evaporation rate in
state transition diagrams, which is staring from Skardu
the fields , rainfall forecast, breach point suburb,
and ends in the Arabian Sea. The system is entirely
magnitude of loss, approachability of volunteers and deterministic as the flow of the entire system is
relief organizations, etc. Furthermore by assimilation of unidirectional. The water flow starts from Skardu
the these parameters of the rainfall , statistical data, and passing through different intermediate states with
ontology of the relevant domain knowledge for better different flow capacity reaches to terminal state Arabian
understanding assisting efficient planning, and Sea. Hence, water flow is asymmetric with irreversible
mitigation strategy. flow direction in the entire system. The Indus River (IR)
area is distributed in ten (10) states to simulate as
In situation of the development of bridge, construction, nondeterministic Machine (M1) as shown shaded areas
or maintenance works, we need to divert flow .These in Figure 2.
string captured patterns will support for suitable flow The main states of the machine (M1) from upward to
plans as well. The successful implementation on this downward order are Skardu, Partab Bridge, Besham,
model and after pruning, tuning and validation of the Tarbela, Attock, Kalabagh, Chashma, Taunsa, Guddu,
results, same may be replicated for the other rivers or Sukkur, Kotri and Arabian Sea. We represented
any irrigation system on the globe. The following accepting and rejected states based on danger flow
subsections describes the macro level characterization exceeding capacity limits controlled by context sensitive
and labeling of Indus river portion that recursively grammar related to the entire system. The accepting
would be applicable for canals and waters courses after state / conditions are the normal conditions in which no
flooding possibility. Whereas, rejecting states/
success implementation and validation. We proceed in
conditions are the abnormal or unexpected water levels,
this scheme horizontally for other rivers and vertically
which represents high tendency towards flood. Defining
or recursively for canals and water courses. Component the deterministic flow by machine M1, we will integrate
of flood mitigation are shown in Figure1. the other machines also so that we can conclude that our
solution is feasible and we may able to control, monitor
and manage the flood through deterministic system.

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 2018 International Conference on Computing, Mathematics and Engineering Technologies – iCoMET 2018

Tarbela = TR
Attock = AT
Kalabagh = KA
Chashma = CH
Taunsa = TA
Guddu = GU
Sukkur = SU
Kotri = KO
F = Arabian Sea = SE

Machine Description:
M1 = ( Q , ∑ , , qo , F ) Where Q = Finite Set of States
Q = {q0, q1, q2, q3,…,qn }
For our machine Q = {Skardu, Tarbela, Attock,
Kalabagh, Chashma, Taunsa, Guddu, Sukkur, Kotri,
Arabian_Sea}
∑ = Finite set of flow ranges. For our machine ∑ = {
l1,m1,h1,v1,x1 , l2,m2,h2,v2,x2, l3,m3,h3,v3,…, ln, mn, hn, vn,
xn }
=transition function
qo = initial state
For our machine qo = S (Skardu)
F = Set of Final States
For our machine F = SE (Arabian Sea)
The water level ranges symbol (x) are derived from
Table-I Flow Limits of Rivers are mentioned in map
figure 3:

TABLE I. WATER LEVE RANGES

Level Water Level Symbol
Categories Ranges
2.5 ≤ x ≤ 3.75 l1
Low 2.0 ≤ x ≤ 3.5 l2
2.0 ≤ x ≤ 3.0 l3
3.75 ≤ x ≤ 5 m1
3.5 ≤x ≤ 5 m2
Medium 3.0 ≤ x ≤ 4.5 m3
Figure 2. The barrages links mapped for representation of the
Machine (M1) and its states. [13] 5.0 ≤ x ≤ 6.5 h1
5.0 ≤ x ≤ 7.0 h2
High 4.5 ≤ x ≤6.5 h3
C. Proposed Machine description
6.5 ≤ x ≤ 8.0 v1
We proposed the system focused on the implementation
of the finite states in the domain of flood disaster 7.0 ≤ x ≤ 9.0 v2
Very High 6.5 ≤ x ≤ 8.0 v3
management. This designed to control, monitor and
management of the floods caused by drastic variation of Extra High 8.0 ≤ x ≤ 9.0 x1
flow pattern.
9.0 ≤ x x2
We have selected the Indus river (IR) area as machine
M1. Pakistan irrigation system consists of 19
Configuration of the Machine:
barrages[14], we mapped 7 on Indus river as states of
R(L) = TR(l1,m1,h1,v1,x1) . AT(l1,m1,h1,v1,x1) . KA
the machine. The starting state qo is Skardu, we have
(l1,m1,h1,v1,x1) . CH (l1,m1,h1,v1,x1) . TA (l1,m1,h1,v1,x1)
denoted it with S, while the final state (F) is Arabian
. GU (l2,m2,h2,v2,x2) . SU (l2,m2,h2,v2,x2) . KO (l3,m3,
Sea.
h2,v2,x2)
The flow of the water from the initial state qo to final
Consider the Transition Function
state Arabian Sea (F). Every machine state (barrage)
has its own unique symbol & different storage capacity
level. The state symbols in the sequential format are
shown below: Which describes the result of a transition from
States Symbols (Naming Conventions): state q with symbol x’s value as input. In our
qo = S= Skardu

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 2018 International Conference on Computing, Mathematics and Engineering Technologies – iCoMET 2018
proposed system transition from state symbol (q)
and the water level symbol (x) range value on the
basis x it passes through that particular state.
Water level may be changed on each successive
location by discharge to canals or adjoining canals,
rainfall, evaporation, or any other deterministic and
nondeterministic reasons. The varying magnitude
must be determined to control the flow, and avoid
from dangerous situation. The water level next to
state or barrage can be predicted from current state
to the next state by catering the parameters for
efficient contingency planning. Some of the
transitions from one state to the next state are
shown below:
(Skardu, ) = {Tarbela}
(Tarbela, l1) = {Attock} is similar to (qo, a)=q1
(Attock, l1) = {Kalabagh}
(Kalabagh, l1) = {Chashma}
(Chashma, l1) = {Taunsa}
(Taunsa, l1) = {Guddu}
(Guddu, l2) = {Sukkur}
(Sukkur, l2) = {Kotri}
(Kotri, l3) = {Arabian Sea}
Strings generated by the Machine:
W = TR l1 AT l1 KA l1 CH l1TA l1 GU l2 SU l2 KO l3 SE
In the proposed system, we have used the
Nondeterministic automation model as the system
don’t needs to memorize the previous state of flow data
and all the states have their own storage capacity, so if
the water level is high in the previous state, it doesn’t
means that it is also remains high in the next state. It
may decrease by discharge, breach or increase by
rainfall or adjoining points.
The string generated by machine with values & states
are mentioned below:
W = (Tarbela) (2.5) (Attock) (2.7) (Kalabagh) (2.8)
(Chasma) (3.0) (Taunsa) (3.1) (Guddu) (2.0) (Sukkur)
(2.1) (Kotri) (1.9) (Arabian Sea)
W = TR l1 AT l1 KA m1 CH m1 TA m1 GU m2 SU m2
KO m3 SE
W = (Tarbela) (3.5) (Attock) (3.7) (Kalabagh) (3.8)
(Chasma) (4.0) (Taunsa) (4.1) (Guddu) (3.5) (Sukkur)
(3.6) (Kotri) (3.9) (Arabian Sea)
State Transition Diagram of the Machine
The representation of the state transition graphs of river
flow assist in mitigation by diverting the flow to
medium or low flow level through discharges to canals.
On other hand estimating the abundance of water in
these canals and communicating farmer for development
of utilization plan for that access water efficiently.
Visualization of the flow model with flow configuration
in water levels would be input for recommender system
assisting management authorities for contingency
planning. The string configuration first compared to all
flood triggering configuration. On matching generated
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alert for action on river flow controlling gates to avoid
situation and transform to safe configuration. This
process continues for all barrages and values of flow
ranges from the domain {l1, l2, l3, …, x2}depends on
the capacity of that particular barrage and outflowing
canals. The coordination between nodes computing flow
at each barrages are monitored by other nodes in
hierarchical scheme. The recommender system notify
the administrative authorities for confirmation and
committing the action.
IV. GENTIC ALOGORITH FOR OPTIMIZATION
We proposed Genetic Algorithm for search space
complexity reduction. The permutation of all
possible configuration of fourteen (14) proposed
levels and sample 7 barrage would be computation
expensive especially for real-time systems. The
genetic algorithm is used for generating the
permissible flow configurations. Suppose we start
with chromosome “Wi = TR l1 AT l2 KA m1 CH m3
TA x1 GU v2 SU h3 KO l3 SE” and “Wj = TR l3 AT l2
KA m2 CH m1 TA x2 GU v2 SU h2 KO l1 SE” are
representing the acceptable strings configuration. Our
fitness function is complement of flood generation
configuration. Crossover by changing the levels from
the domain of levels in Table 1. The two new
chromosome are generated. The mutation stage will flip
highest level to one lower level. If the resultant new
population is not from flood configuration then
resultant configuration is stored tagged as smooth
configuration set and indexed with time of the flow to
classify seasonal flow pattern.
V. IMPLEMENTATION
For simulation, we create IDs at different places saved
longitude and latitude for each ID (Area) of the all five
rivers in Pakistan with GIS coordinate information of
the locations and flood capacity as shown in Figure 3.
The transition shown in Figure 4 are sample of flow
determination model. The calculated flow from
simulated data and characterizing it as normal flow,
average and danger flow. Longitude, latitude, minimum
and maximum flow rate is saved for each specific ID
(Area). The simulated number is generated randomly
between the maximum and minimum for level
generation and flow is communication to admin by
representing on web portal as shown in Figure 5. If the
flow is average, that status update for each specific
area. If simulated flow is more than maximum flow
then status updated as dangerous flow for
administrative authorities for proactive strategy for
adjusting flow to control and avoid flooding. Besides,
the particular string of flow configuration is also stored
in the flood configuration set. The data of flow is stored
with time location, and strategy for prospective usages.
2018 International Conference on Computing, Mathematics and Engineering Technologies – iCoMET 2018

Figure 3. Flood Limits of the Rivers

Figure 4. Transition graphs for flow levels

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 2018 International Conference on Computing, Mathematics and Engineering Technologies – iCoMET 2018
Figure 5. Live monitoring of flow processed by transition graph for location
VI. CONCLUSION AND FUTURE WORK
We proposed and simulated the flood pattern
configuration identification models for flood mitigation.
Machine learning algorithm can be integrated for
developing autonomous systems. In future, we may
develop a coordination system that integrate with
agricultural depart and irrigation department for
effective usage of that access water for more crops
production.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
The authors thank the Department of Computer Science
of Sukkur IBA University and CRUC of Mohammad
Ali Jinnah University for collaboration and support for
this research work. We also acknowledge Alhassan
Systems & Pakistan metrological department for data
source provision for mapping and other designed
solution.
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