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9 16
State of Nature
Alternative Poor Risk Average Risk Good Risk
Extend Credit -$15,000 $10,000 $20,000
Don't Extend Credit 0 0 0
Prior Probabilities 0.2 0.5 0.3
Bayes' Decision Rule for the Fine Farbics Mill
Data: P(Evaluation│State)
State Prior Evaluation
of Nature Probabilities Poor Risk Average Risk Good Risk
Poor Risk 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1
Average Risk 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.1
Good Risk 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4
Posterior P(State│Evaluation)
Probabilities: State of Nature
Evaluation P(Evaluation) Poor Risk Average Risk Good Risk
Poor Risk 0.36 0.278 0.556 0.167 1
Average Risk 0.45 0.178 0.556 0.267 1
Good Risk 0.19 0.105 0.263 0.632 1
Với EVSI là -2394.64 <0 thì chúng ta không nên s
EP(with more information) 5605.36 công ty xếp hạng tín dụng với bất kỳ mức giá nào
EP(without more information) 8000
EVSI -2394.64
(Expected Value of Sample Information)
4.64 <0 thì chúng ta không nên sử dụng
g tín dụng với bất kỳ mức giá nào