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MSGF: TUES OCT. 22, 2019; 11AM - 1PM ROOM 323; 140 W.62ND ST.
PART 2: EXCEL : CHOOSE 4 OF THE 6 PROBLEMS: 10 POINTS EACH: TOTAL VALUE = 40 POINTS
THE PAYBACK TIME FOR A PROJECT IS THE NUMBER OF YEARS NEEDED FOR A PROJECT'S FUTURE PROFITS TO EXCE
THE PROJECT GENERATES A POSITIVE CASH FLOW, TIME=1, OF BETWEEN $30 MILLION AND $100 MILLION.
QUESTION: HOW DOES THIS PROJECT PAYBACK TIME,YEARS, DEPEND ON THE YEAR 1 CASH FLOW AND THE ANNU
ANSWER:
'S FUTURE PROFITS TO EXCEED THE INITIAL INVESTMENT.
ND $100 MILLION.
BEGINNING THIS YEAR AND FOR THE NEXT 39 YEARS ( I.E., YEARS 1 - 40 ) YOU WILL CONTRIBUTE AN AMOUNT OF
EACH YEAR , BEGINNING NEXT YEAR, YOU INCREASE THAT CONTRIBUTION BY $500
FOR THE FIRST 20 YEARS THE RETURN ON YOUR INVESTMENT WILL BE 10% PER YEAR, AFTER THAT IT WILL BE 5
BEGINNING YEAR 41, RETIREMENT BEGINS, NO MORE CONTRIBUTIONS AND YOU WITHDRAW EACH YEAR $100,000
ASSUME ALL CONTRIBUTIONS AND WITHDRAWALS OCCUR AT THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR.
QUESTION: WHAT IS THE LEAST AMOUNT OF MONEY YOU CAN CONTRIBUTE THIS YEAR AND STILL HAV
ANSWER:
WILL CONTRIBUTE AN AMOUNT OF MONEY EACH YEAR.
OF THE YEAR.
BUTE THIS YEAR AND STILL HAVE $100,000 LEFT AT THE END OF YEAR 60
PROBLEM 3: EMERGING MARKETS INFANT MORTALITY
The dataset below contains the following data for several underdeveloped / emerging market countries:
Infant mortality rate, Adult literacy rate, Percentage of students finishing primary school , Per capita GNP.
QUESTION: Use this data to (a) develop an equation that can be used to predict infant mortality.
(b) Interpret the coefficients in your equation. (c) Are there any outliers in this set of data?
(d) For ,say, China, what values should the 25th and 75th percentile of your predictions be for infan
%age
finishing
Infant Mortality(deaths %age adult primary
Country per thousand births) literacy school GNP per capita
Cuba 18 98 98 2,000
Sri Lanka 20 85 92 3,300
Costa Rica 19 94 84 5,800
Vietnam 44 85 58 600
China 54 80 86 2,400
South Africa 56 76 68 4,000
Saudi Arabia 38 59 68 11,000
Brazil 60 78 56 5,600
Zimbawe 68 82 76 1,800
Morocco 68 42 76 3,400
Pakistan 98 36 38 2,100
Nigeria 86 44 56 1,600
ANSWER:
emerging market countries:
mary school , Per capita GNP.
to predict infant mortality.
s in this set of data?
your predictions be for infant mortality ?
PROBLEM 4: THE IMPACT OF RISK ON DECISION MAKING:
Monte Carlo Simulation: Using the Excel Normal Distribution and the Excel RAND function
An auto dealer believes that demand for his Lexus 2018 model cars
will follow a normal distribution with a mean of 200 and a standard deviation of 3
His cost of receiving a Lexus is $ 25,000, and he sells a Lexus for $ 40,000.
Half of all the Lexus not sold at full price can be sold for $ 30,000.
He is considering ordering 200, 220, 240, 260, 280, or 300 Lexus.
QUESTION: How many should he order? To Maximize PROFIT
Objectives / Hints:
1) Develop a formula box , as per above discussion, which shows profit as a functio
2) Execute 500 simulations using Excel DataTable, incorporate the 6 levels of produ
3) Evaluate the DataTable distribution per production level, using the mean and sta
4) What is your recommendation for this Lexus auto dealer ?
ANSWER:
cel RAND function
ANSWER:
DALLAS, LOS ANGELES, MIAMI
LA MIAMI
2,112 1,390
801 1,332
2,757 0
100 MILES
PROBLEM 6: COST OF DEBT FOR MERCK: AS OF AUGUST 17, 2012
THE FOLLOWING TABLE GIVES THE TIME TO MATURITY AND YIELD TO MATURITY FOR 1,005 A-RAT
QUESTION:
A) GRAPH THIS DATA, Y- AXIS = YIELD TO MATURITY X-AXIS = TIME TO MATURITY
B) FIND A POLYNOMIAL REGRESSION EQUATION OF YIELD TO MATURITY AS A FUNCTION OF TIME
HINT: USE A CUBIC EQUATION: YLD_TO_MAT = F'N( TIME, TIME^2, TIME^3)
C) GIVEN THAT MERCK'S DEBT HAS AN AVERAGE MATURITY OF 7 YEARS, WHAT IS ITS COST OF BORRO
Time to
maturity Yield to
Price Coupon Maturity (YRS) maturity
HSBC FIN CORP HSBC FIN 105.00 5.40% 15/Sep/12 0.0795 -0.90%
HSBC FIN CORP HSBC FIN 103.12 3.85% 15/Sep/12 0.0795 -0.11%
PRUDENTIAL FINL INC MTNS BOOK 103.97 3.63% 17/Sep/12 0.0849 -1.33%
HSBC FIN CORP HSBC FIN 102.81 3.60% 15/Oct/12 0.1616 0.37%
PRUDENTIAL FINL INC MTNS BOOK 103.19 2.75% 14/Jan/13 0.4110 -0.09%
HSBC FIN CORP HSBC FIN 104.85 5.05% 15/Jan/13 0.4137 0.71%
PRUDENTIAL FINL INC MTNS BOOK 105.75 5.15% 15/Jan/13 0.4137 0.03%
HSBC FIN CORP HSBC FIN 104.38 5.00% 15/Feb/13 0.4986 1.33%
HSBC FIN CORP HSBC FIN 105.11 5.50% 15/Feb/13 0.4986 1.23%
HSBC FIN CORP HSBC FIN 105.48 5.65% 15/Mar/13 0.5753 1.35%
DEERE JOHN CAP CORP MTNS BE 107.10 4.50% 3/Apr/13 0.6274 -0.77%
JOHN DEERE CAP CORP CORENOTE P 107.33 5.00% 15/Apr/13 0.6603 -0.32%
HSBC FIN CORP HSBC FIN 106.13 6.00% 15/Apr/13 0.6603 1.47%
NATIONAL RURAL UTILS COOP FIN 107.46 4.65% 15/Apr/13 0.6603 -0.75%
ALLSTATE LIFE GLOBAL FDG SECD 107.67 5.38% 30/Apr/13 0.7014 -0.04%
DEERE JOHN CAP CORP MTNS BE 109.22 4.90% 9/Sep/13 1.0630 -0.29%
NATIONAL RURAL UTILS COOP FIN 102.38 1.13% 1/Nov/13 1.2082 -0.12%
BHP BILLITON FIN USA LTD 112.15 5.50% 1/Apr/14 1.6219 0.27%
GOLDMAN SACHS GRP INC MTN BE 105.73 6.00% 1/May/14 1.7041 3.51%
RIO TINTO FIN USA LTD 119.39 8.95% 1/May/14 1.7041 0.83%
HSBC FIN CORP HSBC FIN 101.00 1.95% 15/Jun/14 1.8274 1.55%
GOLDMAN SACHS GRP INC MTN BE 105.25 4.20% 15/Jul/14 1.9096 2.13%
HSBC FIN CORP HSBC FIN 107.65 6.00% 15/Aug/14 1.9945 3.05%
HSBC FIN CORP HSBC FIN 107.00 4.80% 15/Aug/14 1.9945 2.14%
HSBC FIN CORP HSBC FIN 103.69 4.50% 15/Aug/14 1.9945 3.08%
HSBC FIN CORP HSBC FIN 108.53 5.80% 15/Sep/14 2.0795 2.62%
HSBC FIN CORP HSBC FIN 107.36 5.65% 15/Sep/14 2.0795 2.88%
HSBC FIN CORP HSBC FIN 107.88 5.85% 15/Sep/14 2.0795 2.89%
HSBC FIN CORP HSBC FIN 108.94 5.75% 15/Sep/14 2.0795 2.43%
HSBC FIN CORP HSBC FIN 104.47 4.60% 15/Sep/14 2.0795 2.92%
PRUDENTIAL FINL INC MTNS BOOK 109.52 5.10% 20/Sep/14 2.0932 1.61%
HSBC FIN CORP HSBC FIN 107.13 5.65% 15/Oct/14 2.1616 3.04%
HSBC FIN CORP HSBC FIN 104.32 4.15% 15/Oct/14 2.1616 2.58%
PRUDENTIAL FINL INC MTNS BOOK 105.87 3.88% 14/Jan/15 2.4110 1.93%
PRUDENTIAL FINL INC MTNS BOOK 111.17 6.20% 15/Jan/15 2.4137 2.46%
DEERE JOHN CAP CORP MTNS BE 108.31 2.95% 9/Mar/15 2.5589 0.39%
HSBC FIN CORP HSBC FIN 99.98 3.90% 15/Apr/15 2.6603 3.90%
GOLDMAN SACHS GRP INC MTN BE 102.81 4.50% 15/May/15 2.7425 3.63%
PRUDENTIAL FINL INC MTNS BOOK 107.55 4.75% 13/Jun/15 2.8219 2.50%
GOLDMAN SACHS GRP INC MTN BE 108.38 5.60% 15/Jun/15 2.8274 3.08%
HSBC FIN CORP HSBC FIN 101.88 4.00% 15/Jun/15 2.8274 3.43%
HSBC FIN CORP HSBC FIN 103.30 4.15% 15/Jul/15 2.9096 3.18%
HSBC FIN CORP HSBC FIN 102.94 3.90% 15/Jul/15 2.9096 3.04%
HSBC FIN CORP HSBC FIN 102.03 3.85% 15/Jul/15 2.9096 3.25%
NATIONAL RURAL UTILS COOP FIN 120.50 7.20% 1/Oct/15 3.1233 1.66%
RIO TINTO FIN USA LTD 103.84 1.88% 2/Nov/15 3.2110 0.88%
BHP BILLITON FIN USA LTD 117.69 5.25% 15/Dec/15 3.3288 0.79%
HSBC FIN CORP HSBC FIN 100.00 3.35% 15/Jan/16 3.4137 3.35%
ORACLE CORP / OZARK HLDG INC 117.78 5.25% 15/Jan/16 3.4137 0.85%
GOLDMAN SACHS GRP INC MTN BE 102.50 4.00% 15/Mar/16 3.5781 3.37%
HSBC FIN CORP HSBC FIN 99.42 3.20% 15/Mar/16 3.5781 3.35%
PRUDENTIAL FINL INC MTNS BOOK 111.17 5.50% 15/Mar/16 3.5781 2.72%
GOLDMAN SACHS GRP INC MTN BE 105.12 4.50% 15/May/16 3.7452 3.26%
GOLDMAN SACHS GRP INC MTN BE 113.00 5.85% 15/May/16 3.7452 2.73%
GOLDMAN SACHS GRP INC MTN BE 109.25 6.00% 15/May/16 3.7452 3.73%
RIO TINTO FIN USA LTD 105.25 2.50% 20/May/16 3.7589 1.29%
BARRICK GOLD CORP 105.45 2.90% 30/May/16 3.7863 1.64%
DEERE JOHN CAP CORP MTNS BE 106.10 2.25% 7/Jun/16 3.8082 0.87%
GOLDMAN SACHS GRP INC MTN BE 105.90 6.00% 15/Jun/16 3.8301 4.55%
AIR PRODS & CHEMS INC 104.44 2.00% 2/Aug/16 3.9616 1.02%
GOLDMAN SACHS GRP INC MTN BE 97.61 3.50% 15/Aug/16 3.9973 4.06%
COCA COLA ENTERPRISES INC NEW 103.18 2.00% 19/Aug/16 4.0082 1.30%
DEERE JOHN CAP CORP MTNS BE 103.37 1.85% 15/Sep/16 4.0822 1.13%
RIO TINTO FIN USA LTD 103.09 2.25% 20/Sep/16 4.0959 1.58%
AMERICAN INTL GROUP INC MTN BE 100.44 5.60% 18/Oct/16 4.1726 5.49%
NATIONAL RURAL UTILS COOP FIN 116.94 5.45% 10/Apr/17 4.6493 2.09%
PRUDENTIAL FINL INC MTNS BOOK 113.00 6.10% 15/Jun/17 4.8301 3.50%
HSBC FIN CORP HSBC FIN 110.67 6.00% 15/Jul/17 4.9123 3.87%
PITNEY BOWES INC GLBL MTN 113.10 5.75% 15/Sep/17 5.0822 3.25%
DEERE JOHN CAP CORP MTNS BE 106.71 2.80% 18/Sep/17 5.0904 1.58%
HSBC FIN CORP HSBC FIN 112.18 5.85% 15/Oct/17 5.1644 3.55%
PRUDENTIAL FINL INC MTNS BOOK 112.67 6.00% 1/Dec/17 5.2932 3.63%
AMERICAN INTL GROUP INC MTN BE 99.06 5.85% 16/Jan/18 5.4192 6.03%
NATIONAL RURAL UTILS COOP FIN 120.06 5.45% 1/Feb/18 5.4630 1.98%
HSBC FIN CORP HSBC FIN 106.21 5.60% 15/Feb/18 5.5014 4.45%
GOLDMAN SACHS GRP INC MTN BE 101.00 4.00% 15/Mar/18 5.5781 3.82%
DEERE JOHN CAP CORP MTNS BE 120.88 5.35% 3/Apr/18 5.6301 1.84%
RIO TINTO FIN USA LTD 121.47 6.50% 15/Jul/18 5.9123 2.91%
DEERE JOHN CAP CORP MTNS BE 125.38 5.75% 10/Sep/18 6.0685 1.76%
BANK AMER CORP SUB INTNTS BE 101.91 6.35% 15/Sep/18 6.0822 6.00%
BANK AMER CORP SUB INTNTS BE 98.25 6.35% 15/Sep/18 6.0822 6.67%
NATIONAL RURAL UTILS COOP FIN 128.00 6.55% 1/Nov/18 6.2110 2.17%
SOUTH CAROLINA ELEC & GAS CO 127.75 6.50% 1/Nov/18 6.2110 2.16%
GOLDMAN SACHS GRP INC MTN BE 108.18 7.50% 15/Feb/19 6.5014 6.08%
BHP BILLITON FIN USA LTD 125.90 6.50% 1/Apr/19 6.6247 2.60%
RIO TINTO FIN USA LTD 137.00 9.00% 1/May/19 6.7068 3.33%
GOLDMAN SACHS GRP INC MTN BE 112.00 6.75% 15/May/19 6.7452 4.82%
PRUDENTIAL FINL INC MTNS BOOK 118.31 7.38% 15/Jun/19 6.8301 4.49%
GOLDMAN SACHS GRP INC MTN BE 95.42 4.25% 15/Aug/19 6.9973 4.97%
GOLDMAN SACHS GRP INC MTN BE 101.00 5.05% 15/Sep/19 7.0822 4.89%
NATIONAL RURAL UTILS COOP FIN 101.55 3.00% 15/Oct/19 7.1644 2.78%
GOLDMAN SACHS GRP INC MTN BE 95.82 5.38% 15/Mar/20 7.5808 6.02%
GOLDMAN SACHS GRP INC MTN BE 99.95 6.00% 15/Jun/20 7.8329 6.01%
RIO TINTO FIN USA LTD 105.49 3.50% 2/Nov/20 8.2164 2.80%
GOLDMAN SACHS GRP INC MTN BE 101.55 5.00% 15/Nov/20 8.2521 4.79%
PRUDENTIAL FINL INC MTNS BOOK 101.17 4.50% 15/Nov/20 8.2521 4.34%
RIO TINTO FIN USA LTD 109.33 4.13% 20/May/21 8.7616 2.99%
BARRICK NORTH AMERICA FIN LLC 108.43 4.40% 30/May/21 8.7890 3.36%
PUBLIC SVC ELEC & GAS CO 150.06 9.25% 1/Jun/21 8.7945 3.12%
DEERE JOHN CAP CORP MTNS BE 110.11 3.90% 12/Jul/21 8.9068 2.70%
DAIMLER FINANCE NORTH AMER LLC 102.09 3.88% 15/Sep/21 9.0849 3.62%
RIO TINTO FIN USA LTD 104.78 3.75% 20/Sep/21 9.0986 3.18%
DEERE JOHN CAP CORP MTNS BE 104.70 3.15% 15/Oct/21 9.1671 2.61%
AIR PRODS & CHEMS INC 104.39 3.00% 3/Nov/21 9.2192 2.50%
GOLDMAN SACHS GRP INC MTN BE 101.57 4.75% 15/May/22 9.7479 4.56%
GOLDMAN SACHS GRP INC MTN BE 108.00 5.70% 15/Jun/22 9.8329 4.73%
GOLDMAN SACHS GRP INC MTN BE 103.06 5.00% 15/Aug/22 10.0000 4.64%
GOLDMAN SACHS GRP INC MTN BE 103.54 5.10% 15/Jun/24 11.8356 4.73%
GOLDMAN SACHS GRP INC MTN BE 103.87 5.25% 15/Aug/24 12.0027 4.84%
ENTERGY LOUISIANA LLC 118.07 5.40% 1/Nov/24 12.2164 3.64%
GOLDMAN SACHS GRP INC MTN BE 106.05 5.00% 15/Aug/25 13.0027 4.41%
PUGET SOUND ENERGY INC SR MTN 128.00 7.02% 1/Dec/27 15.2986 4.54%
FLEET FINL GROUP INC NEW 100.25 6.88% 15/Jan/28 15.4219 6.85%
RIO TINTO FIN USA LTD 139.46 7.13% 15/Jul/28 15.9205 3.88%
PUGET SOUND ENERGY INC SR MTN 132.00 7.00% 9/Mar/29 16.5699 4.35%
GOLDMAN SACHS GRP INC MTN BE 104.00 5.25% 15/Jun/29 16.8384 4.91%
GOLDMAN SACHS GRP INC MTN BE 102.78 5.35% 15/Nov/31 19.2575 5.13%
GOLDMAN SACHS GRP INC MTN BE 104.00 5.25% 15/Dec/32 20.3425 4.94%
SOUTH CAROLINA ELEC & GAS CO 123.00 5.80% 15/Jan/33 20.4274 4.15%
TRAVELERS PPTY CAS CORP NEW 132.01 6.38% 15/Mar/33 20.5890 4.11%
PRUDENTIAL FINL INC MTNS BOOK 108.46 5.75% 15/Jul/33 20.9233 5.10%
PRUDENTIAL FINL INC MTNS BOOK 104.02 5.90% 17/Mar/36 23.5973 5.59%
PRUDENTIAL FINL INC MTNS BOOK 100.52 5.70% 14/Dec/36 24.3425 5.66%
PITNEY BOWES INC GLBL MTN 107.50 5.25% 15/Jan/37 24.4301 4.74%
GOLDMAN SACHS GRP INC MTN BE 105.00 5.75% 15/Feb/37 24.5151 5.39%
CENTRAL HUDSON GAS & ELEC CORP 117.86 5.80% 23/Mar/37 24.6137 4.60%
BANK AMER CORP SUB INTNTS BE 90.99 6.05% 15/Feb/38 25.5151 6.79%
GOLDMAN SACHS GRP INC MTN BE 100.85 5.75% 15/Feb/38 25.5151 5.69%
BARRICK NORTH AMERICA FIN LLC 137.03 7.50% 15/Sep/38 26.0959 4.98%
PRUDENTIAL FINL INC MTNS BOOK 113.99 6.63% 21/Jun/40 27.8630 5.63%
PRUDENTIAL FINL INC MTNS BOOK 107.47 6.20% 15/Nov/40 28.2658 5.67%
PRUDENTIAL FINL INC MTNS BOOK 98.88 5.63% 12/May/41 28.7534 5.70%
GOLDMAN SACHS GRP INC MTN BE 103.30 5.75% 15/Jul/41 28.9288 5.52%
ANSWER: