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• the several invasions of Afghanistan, first by far smaller countries—all of which share
by the Soviets and more recently by the a border with it except the Maldives—India
United States and NATO suffers from the ‘Kautilian dictum’, according to
which smaller surrounding countries naturally
• the incursion of more ‘puritanical’ seek to balance their giant neighbour with closer
Gulf-based versions of Islam into a relations with more distant, larger powers. China
region noted for its syncretic values and has been a prominent feature in this balancing
pervasive Sufi versions of Islam (which is exercise, particularly with Pakistan, but also to a
not to say the more fundamental forms lesser extent with all other South Asian powers
of Islam didn’t exist previously in the except Bhutan.
region, only that they have become more This structure has contributed to outside
widespread and entrenched) interference in South Asia—particularly during
the Cold War when India and the Soviet Union
• the use of South Asia as a proving and were opposed to China and the United States
‘breeding’ ground for global terrorism (after 1972) under a strategic ‘quadrilateral’
directed against the West and Hindu- structure—and more recently in relation to
majority India, and the Sino-Indian competition and the so-called
‘war on terror.’
• the nuclearisation of the India-Pakistan Recently, with the comparative decline of the
rivalry, with the assistance of outside West and rise of Asian powers like China, the
powers like China and North Korea. external dynamic has been changing. We may
be seeing the emergence of a ‘quadrilateral’
In a more positive context, South Asia promises consisting of China and Pakistan ranged against
to play a very important role in the global the United States and India. But just how this
economy if it can sort out its problems. In may evolve after the impending Afghanistan
particular, it provides an important reservoir of ‘end game’ remains to be seen. It is possible, even
labour-intensive manufacturing potential, which likely, that with the end of substantial US and
could be enhanced by its proximity to massive NATO involvement in Afghanistan, the already
energy sources: the hydropower of the Himalayas troubled Pakistan-US relations will deteriorate
and the relatively ‘clean’ gas of the Persian Gulf. further and the main US interest in South Asia
Finally, South Asia is important because it will devolve onto Washington’s predilection
hosts India, with all that country’s potential. India to use India to ‘balance’ the rise of China. For
will be the most populous country in the world the United States, India is especially relevant
by 2025, and its economy is growing at between because it occupies a box seat in the Indian
7% and 9% annually. India also sits in a box seat Ocean. Although strategically relatively weak in
in terms of the massive energy flows across the East Asia, India is potentially far stronger in the
Indian Ocean, which is in turn essential to fuel Indian Ocean because of its location. For the
the growth of the tigers of Asia and of China. United States, the Indian Ocean is important
However, India’s location in South Asia also acts because of its role as the ‘west about’ route into
as a sheet-anchor in its rise, forcing it to adopt the oil-rich and strategically important Persian
a fundamentally ‘continental’ security profile. Gulf. China too is concerned about the Indian
Ocean as it becomes ever more dependent on
Sergei DeSilva-Ranasinghe: How would you oil from the Persian Gulf. In that regard it is
describe South Asia’s strategic geography, concerned that India, perhaps in conjunction
geopolitical dynamics, and the inter-relationships with the United States, might one day during
of each South Asian country? times of tension or even war use its vital strategic
Sandy Gordon: India is clearly the regional location to interdict oil supplies. This concern
giant in terms of population, economy and is fuelling at least some of China’s growing
conventional military strength. Surrounded involvement in the Indian Ocean region.
Sergei DeSilva-Ranasinghe: How has the Asian powers scope to play off China and
China-India rivalry affected South Asia? How is India against each other. This is a potentially
it likely to affect the region’s future? dangerous game because it sharpens the security
Sandy Gordon: The Sino-Indian rivalry is one dilemma and is ultimately bad for the region. To
of the more troubling features of the geopolitical truly flourish, South Asia needs to set aside its
structure of South Asia. At least in the Indian differences so it can turn itself into the next great
Ocean, it is assuming all the hallmarks of a classic labour-intensive manufacturing hub after China
security dilemma. On the one hand, China fears graduates, leveraging from its massive number
that India might seek to interdict vital energy of cheap labourers and location near the oil
flows, possibly in collusion with the United and gas-rich Persian Gulf. For this to happen,
States. On the other hand, India is concerned India-Pakistan relations must improve by
that China, in building up its potential influence allowing SAARC to play its proper role in
throughout the Indian Ocean region (including breaking down economic and security barriers
South Asia), is seeking to ‘fish in the troubled across the region.
waters’ of what New Delhi regards as its backyard.
Much of this results from misinterpretation;
for example, many of China’s activities in South Except in relations with India, the
Asia can be seen as essentially commercial position of the United States in
(but also with a strategically hedging element).
South Asia is somewhat declining.
However, India has some grounds for concern
about the longstanding friendship, even strategic
relationship, between China and Pakistan. Sergei DeSilva-Ranasinghe: What is the status
China has hardened its position on its disputed of US influence in South Asia? How is the
border with India since 2007, and intensified United States likely to feature in the region’s
its claim to the Indian state of Arunachal long-term future?
Pradesh, which has a population of 1.1 million Sandy Gordon: Except in relation to India,
people. Controlling it would extend Chinese the position of the United States in South Asia
influence down to the foothills of the strategically is somewhat declining—a situation that could
important Himalayas and put Beijing in a accelerate once the United States and NATO
commanding position over much of Eastern leave Afghanistan. The United States is no
India’s waters. India would never accept such longer as influential in the region’s multilateral
a claim. economic institutions as it once was. It no
In response, India has hardened its stance longer has massive capital reserves to invest in
towards China, especially since 2009. It is the region. That mantle is progressively being
spending US$13 billion to raise an additional taken up by China and other cashed-up Asian
four mountain divisions. It is locating two powers. The United States no longer holds
squadrons of frontline SU-30 Mk I fighters in the degree of sway over the conduct of human
Assam and improving its border roads. And it rights as it once did—again for financial
is attempting to play tit-for-tat with China by reasons—as illustrated by the denouement of
further developing its relationships with Vietnam the civil war in Sri Lanka, when Colombo was
and Japan. able to shrug off Western concerns about
Given this hardening in relations, India may human rights because it was funded by China
eventually decide to turn its current ‘hedge’ with and other Asian powers. As for China, it is not
the United States into a ‘strategic’ relationship fundamentally concerned about trading off
but keep it short of an ‘alliance.’ This is by human rights for its financial resources.
no means certain and would depend on how But the United States remains important in
Sino-Indian relations develop. relation to India and maintaining energy flows
In terms of current and future effects, the out of the Persian Gulf. Should the hedge in
Sino-Indian competition offers other South relations with India sharpen, an interesting
trade-off would emerge. The United States which has tested not only Sri Lankan-US relations
is losing comparative advantage to China in but also those with many other Western nations.
the production of research, technology and But this setback is likely to be temporary.
potentially weapons systems due to China’s Australia is very much an Indian Ocean power,
far cheaper cost structures. The United States with the region’s second-largest navy after India,
could undertake a trade-off with India where a massive search and rescue zone stretching as far
production—or parts of it—could be exchanged as Sri Lanka, and strategically important Indian
for technology. Its recent offer of ‘joint Ocean island possessions. But the rest of South
production’—if that is indeed what it was—of Asia does not consider Australia as a strategic
the Joint Strike Fighter could be a ‘straw in the power in the Indian Ocean region.
wind,’ even though the offer was refused by In inserting Australia into Indian Ocean
India in favour of the French Rafale. forums, however, Canberra faces a key challenge:
That said, India-US relations are likely to wax to find a way to create multilateral trade and
and wane in reaction to events and challenges as they security regimes in the region to mitigate the
emerge, for example, India’s continuing reliance security dilemma involving the India-US-China
of Iranian oil and refusal to toe the American triangle. The problem is that India, like any
line towards Iran. But over time, and depending great power, wishes to dominate the multilateral
on the trajectory of Sino-Indian relations, the security and trading regime in the Indian Ocean.
India-US relationship could strengthen. One of India’s aims thereby is to lock out the
China-Pakistan combine, like it did with the
Sergei DeSilva-Ranasinghe: How has Australia Indian Ocean Rim-Association for Regional
engaged with South Asian countries since the Cooperation (IOR-ARC), which originated
end of the Cold War? How is the relationship under Indian tutelage as the ‘Mauritius process.’
likely to evolve in the coming decades? Pakistan is not a member of IOR-ARC; China
Sandy Gordon: Australia virtually ignored is an observer along with some other outside
South Asia for many years after the Cold War users of the Indian Ocean, but not a member.
except when it was parroting the United States, Canberra can do very little in the short term
for example, in relation to Afghanistan after to soften India’s stand and make for a more
September 2001. Equally, it was virtually ignored inclusive Indian Ocean multilateral regime—
by the South Asian powers, especially India, one in which all users of the Indian Ocean could
which saw it as a ‘pale shadow’ of the United ‘rise on the same tide.’ When Australia tried to
States. This has changed with the development set up its own process under Gareth Evans in
of India’s semi-liberalised economy over recent 1995, the initiative was torpedoed by India.
years. Canberra now wants to engage with India Canberra should accept the current situation
but is having difficulty gaining traction. India is and work quietly within the parameters set by
being widely courted and Australia is only one India, focusing on trade and non-conventional
of the many courtiers. Canberra’s refusal to sell security issues. It should also attempt to recruit
uranium to India until last year did not help. the United States, which is not yet even an
This situation will progressively change. As observer in IOR-ARC, because Washington
India and China develop, further pressure will be obviously has far more clout with New
placed on resources, especially energy supplies. Delhi than Canberra. And it should work on
Just as Australia has emerged as a reliable supplier Washington to convince New Delhi of the need
of commodities to Japan and then China, the for a more inclusive multilateral security and
same is likely happen in relation to India. trading regime in the Indian Ocean region. But
Equally, Australia has suffered in all South in the final analysis, Washington may not see it
Asian countries because it has been assumed to be this way, choosing to develop the US-Indian
following Washington’s bidding. This is especially relationship as the preferred security regime for
true of Sri Lanka and the issue of human rights, the Indian Ocean and as a deterrent to China.