The Pyramids, Resurrected: Unearthing

Egypt’s Policy Decisions Fueling its Growing

Economy
By Group-6

Introduction
Egypt is a country with frequent make-overs. From gaining a republic status in 1953 to a civil war and a coup
in 2014, from self-sufficient, closed economy to liberalization in the 1990s, Egypt has gone through it all.

Egypt has always been a focus of attention, be it for its enormous pyramids, or the state of its economy. In the
past couple of decades, the Egyptian economy grew at a respectable rate. According to the data from
International Monetary Fund (IMF), the economy grew at about 8% in 2002-2009, and by 5.7% in the latest
quarter1. This growth has been crucial in improving the living standards of its approximately 100 million-strong
population. However, along with the much-desired economic growth, there has been a growth of some less-
desired (read derided) components, like poverty, inequality, absurd double-digit inflation, and a poor health
of external account amongst others.

A healthy Egyptian economy is important for the entire world. The world expects Egypt to thrive and, by doing
so, contain the beliefs-based extremism that affects the region, for its own good (and the world’s). With a
reputation of growing the fastest in one of the world’s most backward regions (in terms of economic and
geopolitical stability), the Egyptian economy has a big responsibility. To carry its people to prosperity. And in
the process, show light to other embattled countries that surround Egypt.
Sources: IMF, CBE, World Bank, Bloomberg, CEIC, The Economist
By Group-6: Kritika Ahuja (E006), Veeraraghavan D (E016), Siddharth Gupta (E026), Soutik Kumar (E036), Omkar Palsule
(E046), Akash Sharma (E056)
This study, recognizing the importance Egyptian economy holds, aims to look closely at the economic situation
in Egypt, macroeconomic policies that it follows, the changes in these policies, and the impact these policies
have had on the Egyptian economy, along with analyzing the impact of these policies on the people of the
country, by going beyond the economic indicators.

Overview and the Objective of the Analysis

This analysis report aims to look closely at the macroeconomic conditions in one of the fastest growing
economies of the world, by studying some macroeconomic metrics like GDP growth rate, inflation rate,
unemployment rate, etc. Given the fact that the country is located in one of the most backward and unstable
regions of the world, and that it has gone through a civil-war fairly recently, even more importance is attached
to the prosperity of the country and its people.

This study is not only limited to these metrics, many of which mostly fail to truly capture the real prosperity of
its people, but also goes beyond to unearth various factors and indicators which reflect the overall well-being
of the people of Egypt in a better sense, like poverty rate, per-capita GDP growth rate, happiness index etc. We,
throughout our analysis, bring the discussion down to the stakeholder at the bottom of the ladder, in order to
assess the quality of life as comprehensively as possible.

Next, the study looks closely at the macroeconomic policies of Egypt, both fiscal and monetary, and
subsequently tries to find the links between various economic indicators and these policies. The study then
maps the impacts of the macroeconomic policies on the quality of life and on the true sense of well-being of
Egyptians.

The study concludes by highlighting the strong points of the Egyptian economy, and the positives associated
with these. The study also gives out recommendations to leverage these strengths through various policies. In
addition, the study underscores the not-so-well points of the economy, and suggests the ways to improve on
these as well, in order to improve the quality of life of the people of Egypt.

The Prevailing Macroeconomic Scenario

According to the data from IMF, in the past 14 years, while the world economy grew at 3.7%, Egypt grew at
4.7%, about 100 basis points faster. More recently, in the past three years, Egypt grew at 5% against the world
economic growth of 3.5%1. As is often the consequence of a strong economic growth, the population of Egypt
grew at a healthy 3.23% during the same period, much faster than the average world growth of 1.13%2. Hence,
it becomes important for Egypt to exhibit faster economic growth in order to improve the standard of living in
the country as the nation houses a growing population.

In this section, we analyze parameters like GDP growth rate, inflation, government deficit, foreign exchange
rate movement, among others, to get a broader picture of the health of the Egyptian economy. It is important
to note that the country recently underwent an intense period of political crisis, and a consequent civil war.
Hence, only improvement in the economic parameters is not enough to help improve the living standards of
the people of the country. We must dive deeper into the economy, analyzing figures like poverty rate and
happiness level, to arrive at a fair and comprehensive analysis, in the process suggesting a more informed action
plan.

GDP Growth Rate

Sources: IMF, CBE, World Bank, Bloomberg, CEIC, The Economist

By Group-6: Kritika Ahuja (E006), Veeraraghavan D (E016), Siddharth Gupta (E026), Soutik Kumar (E036), Omkar Palsule
(E046), Akash Sharma (E056)
While much of the world shows signs of exhausting its growth potential, Egypt still has a lot of it locked, waiting
to be tapped into. This is better reflected by the fact that while the world grew at 3.5% in the last three years,
Egypt grew at a healthy 5%1. Egypt’s GDP grew at a robust rate of 5.5% in 2019. In the previous quarter itself,
the GDP grew by 5.7%1. However, before painting the picture entirely pink, it must be noted that much of this
increase is due to the boom in energy sector, particularly oil and gas. Hence, the increase does not reflect a
broad-based economic growth.

A glance at the historical GDP data shows that Egypt’s GDP has improved only modestly after early 1990s. Till
1992 (from 1980), the economy grew by 4.4% on average, while after 1992 (adjusting for years marred by the
civil war), it grew at a slightly higher 4.7%1. Though the increase is not much, one of the most important
observations is the relative stability in growth rate of Egypt after 1992. The GDP growth rate exhibited a
standard deviation of 1.5 after 1992, though the period was marred by rising protests and growing unrest
amongst the people, accompanied by the Arab Spring. Before 1991, during relatively peaceful times, the
deviation stood at 2.61.

More recently, in the past 12 years, Egypt grew

at a relatively stable rate, with an average
growth rate of 4.2%. Even during the great
recession of 2008, while the world economy
declined by 0.1%, Egypt kept growing at a
healthy 4.7%1. However, one notable trend that
emerges is that the Egyptian economy suffered
setback during 2011-2014. Understandably so, as
these were the years when the country was
facing some political instability. And a civil war.

Population and Per-Capita GDP Growth Rate

With political stability and peace coming back to Egypt in the past 5 years, the country has shown increasing
rate of population growth. While the world population grew at 1.15%, Egypt’s population grew at 2.74% in the
last 5 years. In the last 3 years, Egypt exhibited an even higher population growth of 3.23%2. The increase in the
rate can also be attributed to improving health conditions, as is evident from increasing life expectancy (from
65.4 years in 1992 to 71.6 years in 2017)3.

But the growth rate has not been fast enough to accommodate all of the Egyptians together. As population
growth rate continues to remain high for Egypt, its per capita GDP growth rate has come under pressure. Going
by the approximation:
Per capita GDP growth rate = GDP growth rate - population growth rate
The growth figures look less optimistic in this light. In the last three years, for example, while the real GDP
grew by about 5%, the growth in per capita real income was just about 1.7%. With such a small, it will take a
very long time, perhaps forever, for Egypt to witness the prosperity it is in desperate need of.

Sources: IMF, CBE, World Bank, Bloomberg, CEIC, The Economist

By Group-6: Kritika Ahuja (E006), Veeraraghavan D (E016), Siddharth Gupta (E026), Soutik Kumar (E036), Omkar Palsule
(E046), Akash Sharma (E056)
Inflation, Unemployment and Government Debt
Let’s look at what it cost people to hold their money in
cash, inflation. Based on the Central Bank of Egypt
(CBE) figures, Egyptian economy suffered from high
rate of inflation, which even peaked at about 33% in July
2017. Simple observation shows that inflation started
rising since March 2016, and within a year, rose to about
31%. The most significant change came in the latter part
of 2016, with inflation more than doubling in 4 months,
from 13.6% in October 2016 to 28.1% in January 20174.

The net government borrowing in this period was at

12.5% of its GDP5, its highest ever, as the theory would predict. In fact, throughout the period of high inflation,
government’s net borrowings remained high consistently5. A continuously high government borrowing crowds
out the private investment opportunities, by sucking up all the domestic savings, increases the burden of
servicing the debt on future generations, and hinders long term growth. Additionally, it increases the
transactions demand for money, pushing up the inflation levels in the economy, as was the case.

Continuing high inflation has well-known negative effects on the economy. It imposes welfare costs on society;
hampers efficient resource allocation by causing hinderance in the signaling role of relative price changes; hits
the poor disproportionality because they do not hold financial assets that can be a hedge against inflation; and
reduces long-term economic growth. In the case of growth, studies have shown that double-digit inflation has
serious negative consequences.

However, inflation in Egypt continued to be high till the end of 2017, after which it started falling rapidly. The
latest figures from the Central Bank of Egypt reveal that the core inflation has cooled down to 3.1%, lowest in
almost 9 years, since the Arab Spring brought disruptions to the economy.

Associated very intricately with inflation, is unemployment. Theoretically, both are negatively correlated; as
inflation rises, unemployment falls down, as explained by Phillips’ Curve. However, the case has been
somewhat different in Egypt. Even with high inflation, the unemployment rates have peaked. Since 2011, with
the onset of Arab spring, the related violence and a consequent civil war, the unemployment rate (as reported
by Bloomberg) skyrocketed from 8.9% to almost 12.5% in just about 1 year. This rate continued to stay above
12% for the better part of 2017. Since then, it has started falling. According to the CBE, the unemployment rate
is now down at 7.8% (as on September 2019), second lowest in the history of Egypt (the lowest reported
unemployment rate was on June 2019, at 7.5%)6.

Current Account Balance and Foreign Exchange Rate

Egypt’s trade balance as a percentage of its GDP, after 2009, interestingly, was consistently in deficit. In 2016
and 2017, it reached its lowest levels (-6% and -6.1% of GDP, respectively) in the last 30 years. Since 2017
however, the trade deficit declined significantly, from 6% in 2016 to 2.4%7 in 2018. Correspondingly, the
Egyptian pound (EGP) also lost its value sharply in the second half of 2016, dropping from EGP 8.8/$ to more
than its double, at EGP 18.88/$ within 3 months8. The EGP has stabilized since then, currently hovering at
about EGP 16/$. We explain the link between these two movements and the policy actions in the next section.

Summing Up; Looking at the Ground Reality

It is evident that the past decade, Egypt witnessed one of the worst phases any economy can go through. The
economy went through continued inflation with high unemployment rate. Even though the GDP growth

Sources: IMF, CBE, World Bank, Bloomberg, CEIC, The Economist

By Group-6: Kritika Ahuja (E006), Veeraraghavan D (E016), Siddharth Gupta (E026), Soutik Kumar (E036), Omkar Palsule
(E046), Akash Sharma (E056)
figures clocked respectable numbers, there remains a widespread view that the economic growth is only
benefitting the rich.

Last year Egypt vowed to halve poverty by 2020 and eliminate it by 2030. It is going in the wrong direction. On
July 29th the national statistics agency released a long-delayed report on household finances. It found that 33%
of Egypt’s 99m people were classified as poor last year, up from 28% in 2015. Even that dismal finding may not
be dismal enough. The government has fixed the official poverty line at just 736 EGP ($45) a month, a figure
that many economists say is too low. The World Bank said in April that 60% of Egyptians were “either poor or
vulnerable”.

The macroeconomic analysis of Egypt over the past decade reveals that while the growth was relatively stable
and fairly well maintained ever since the liberalization policies of 1990s, Egyptian economy had to fight off
other major hurdles like low GDP per capita growth, high inflation and unemployment, growing public unrest
after the Arab Spring, ever increasing government borrowings, an overvalued currency (which had to be
devalued, more on that later) and a poor external account. However, with sustained policy initiatives (which
we discuss about next), the government succeeded in taming down inflation and unemployment rate,
controlling public spending, stabilizing the Egyptian pound and reining in the external account deficit. We
now look at these policy measures, and whether the government reforms have been as good on the ground for
Egyptians, as good they appear on paper.

Policy Analysis: Understanding the Policies Undertaken, and their Impact

on the Economic Performance
Ballooning government debt, deteriorating external account, ever-increasing inflation, political unrest and
rising unemployment are a few among the plethora of challenges the Egyptian economy faced. These challenges
necessitated policy changes, and Egypt responded, by shifting its policies as the situation demanded. We now
focus on the set of policy measure taken by Egypt, both fiscal and monetary, to combat various challenges that
arose in its way to economic growth.

Fiscal Policy
Even though the GDP growth averaged 4.4% from 1980 8
Egypt Growth Rate
till 1992, deeper analysis shows that in the last 5 years
Growth rate in %

before liberalizing the economy, Egypt grew at a dismal 6

2.34%. The government came under severe pressure 4
due to increasing budget deficit. The difficult financial
situation forced the government to reschedule its 2
public debt twice, in 1987 and 1991. By 1992, the growth 0
had fallen to 0.3%1. An aid from IMF required Egypt to
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998

open up its economy. Egypt recognized the need to act, Egypt

and hence followed liberalization in 1991-1992.

The immediate result was that the average growth rate bounced to about 4.5% in the 5 years prior to
liberalization. In the sixth year, the growth rate touched 7.5%1, as can be seen in the diagram. Trade liberalized
as well, albeit partly and as the Egyptian economy opened up, it started showing a much stable growth, as the
domestic factors were no more the only reason for economic growth, with international economy also playing
an increasing part.

More recently, Egypt has undertaken a slew of reforms overseen by the president, Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi. The
country has been facing huge budget deficits, and by the time the civil war came to an end, the budget deficit

Sources: IMF, CBE, World Bank, Bloomberg, CEIC, The Economist

By Group-6: Kritika Ahuja (E006), Veeraraghavan D (E016), Siddharth Gupta (E026), Soutik Kumar (E036), Omkar Palsule
(E046), Akash Sharma (E056)
had climbed to 11.3%5 of the GDP. As is often the case after any war, Egypt required to rebuild its cities, which
required government spending. But with an already heavy subsidy program, and increasing budget deficit, it
became increasingly difficult for the government to borrow more, without impacting inflation. However, to
bring up the GDP growth rate and raise the city back from ashes, spending had to be undertaken, and with the
help of the IMF, the government went ahead with its expansionary fiscal policy, albeit with some riders.

In need of monetary assistance from IMF, Mr. Sisi went ahead with a number of economic reforms, backed by
the IMF. These included removal of fuel subsidies, letting the currency depreciate and imposition of a 14%
value-added tax. The reforms paved the way for long-term economic growth. And a $12bn aid from IMF.

But macroeconomic gains came at the expense of Egyptians themselves. Cuts to fuel subsidies have pushed up
transport costs. For an Egyptian on the official poverty line, a short daily trip on Cairo’s metro would now
consume 25% of their monthly income. The price of almost every service, from driving licenses to gun permits,
has gone up. Public-school fees has jumped by 20-50%. For businesses, there is a proposed 0.25% levy on
revenue that would be used to fund a new national healthcare scheme.

Many of these changes are long overdue. (Fuel subsidies were regressive, inefficient and unaffordable; hospitals
need investment.) But the government seems oblivious to their impact on the poor. Subsidies were the heart
of Egypt’s social safety-net. Nothing has adequately replaced them. Ration cards give access to cut-rate staples,
but no one can live on cooking oil and rice alone.

Monetary policy
Arguably, one of the biggest challenges Egypt has to face is inflation. The authority tasked with handling the
monetary policy in Egypt is the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE). CBE, as its tools for effectively managing the
monetary policy in the country, has established two standing facilities, the overnight lending and the overnight
deposit facility. The CBE tinkers with the interest rates on these two standing facilities, the overnight lending
and the overnight deposit rates, to effectively control the liquidity in the economy, and achieve its goal of
desired level of inflation.
With growing government spending, a deteriorating domestic currency, and economic growth, inflation was
at outrageous levels. For three years ending 2018, the average inflation remained above 20.9%. As a result, the
CBE went on with a series of massive interest rate hikes. In 2016 alone, the central bank hiked the interest rate
by 550 bps. In November 2016, on the back of sustained double-digit inflation, the central bank hiked the
deposit and overnight lending rates by 300 bps in one go.

In 2017, there were two more interest rate hikes by the central bank, increasing the deposit rate by 400 bps
from 14.75% to 18.75%, and similarly impacting the overnight lending rate, increasing from 15.75% to 19.75%.

Sources: IMF, CBE, World Bank, Bloomberg, CEIC, The Economist

By Group-6: Kritika Ahuja (E006), Veeraraghavan D (E016), Siddharth Gupta (E026), Soutik Kumar (E036), Omkar Palsule
(E046), Akash Sharma (E056)
 Deposit Rate Lending Rate

The expected impact would have been a tamed inflation. Instead, immediately after the 300 bps rate hikes,
the inflation rate jumped from 13.5% in October to 19.4% in November 2016. And by the time the central bank
hiked interest rate for the
second time in 2017, the
inflation had touched its peak, at
32.9% as can be seen in the
following diagram4.

Increasing deposit rates

implied increasing cost of
holding cash. This had resulted in
lower demand for money, due to
lower speculative demand for
money on the back of higher
current interest and lower
expected increase in interest rate. Because of this lower demand for money, there was a subsequent decline in
the inflation rate, although with a time lag (we discuss about this lag next). Particularly, only after mid-2017,
did the inflation start declining on the back of continuously high rate of interest.

We now focus our attention to the time lag between declining inflation rate as a result of higher interest rates.
Theoretically, with interest rate hikes, inflation rate should have declined. Instead, despite a total hike of 950
basis points in 2016 and 2017, inflation continued to grow, almost along with the interest rates. The reason
behind this lies in the exchange rate of the Egyptian Pound (EGP).

In March 2016, there was severe upward pressure

on the EGP exchange rate. The government and
the CBE gave in to this pressure and devalued
the EGP by 13%. This resulted in greater external
account deficit in the immediate time period, as
we also observed in the previous section,
pushing up inflation in the process. However,
the currency was still seen as overvalued by
many. On the back of declining foreign reserves
(hence inability to artificially maintain the
exchange rate), the CBE finally took the bitter
pill and free floated (allowed the market forces
of demand and supply to determine the
equilibrium exchange rate) the EGP on 3
November 2016. Within 5 days, the EGP fell from 8.85/$ to 17.8/$8.

The result was that import bill rose significantly, deteriorating the external account balance. Data from IMF
shows that in 2016 itself, external account deficit increased to 6% of the GDP, from 3.7% a year before.
Increasing import bill pushed the inflation. Hence, we see that even after a steep rate hike, the inflation sky-
rocketed, hitting the poorest segment the hardest. This was the impact that trade (liberalized partly after 1991)
had on Egypt. No wonder, the majority of poor people feel that liberalization, apart from benefitting a few
corporates, has barely helped the Egyptian poor.

Sources: IMF, CBE, World Bank, Bloomberg, CEIC, The Economist

By Group-6: Kritika Ahuja (E006), Veeraraghavan D (E016), Siddharth Gupta (E026), Soutik Kumar (E036), Omkar Palsule
(E046), Akash Sharma (E056)
Perhaps the CBE knew this would happen, and hence took the decision to hike the interest rates by 300 bps
immediately after floating EGP exchange rate. Perhaps not. But this step turned out to be crucial for Egypt, as
without it, who knows what would have been the level that inflation rate might have scaled.

Once the economy was in a better shape by the end of 2017, with lower level of inflation, the monetary policy
shifted its stance to accommodative and started cutting interest rates. A noticeable fact is that the inflation has
been kept in check throughout, and as of October 2019, it is down to 3.1%4. With EGP priced at its fair value,
exports were bound to take off in medium to long run. It had become cheaper to travel to Egypt, and being the
tourist hotspot that it is, this fact would definitely go on to benefit the country. Consequently, the
unemployment in the country has come down as well, and the engines off the economy have started rolling
too. All of this, after controlling for the interest rate and liberalizing EGP. This is the impact that monetary
policy of any country can have, and this is best shown in the Egyptian case.

However, with all its theories of efficiency, economic equilibrium and the related policies may not always lead
to welfare of all the segments of the society. The policies adopted by the Egyptian authorities have helped the
broader economy to grow, but have also resulted in growing poverty, discontent among its people, and
inequality. The GDP growth often is inefficient in its indication of growing prosperity. Even though the GDP
growth in Egypt has increased over the past year, the jump is mostly due to a boom in oil and gas. Other sectors
look stagnant. Though jobs are being created, many are in low-wage or informal sectors.

We, therefore, now look at the policy suggestions to help Egypt address the shortcomings it faces.

Policy Suggestions and Conclusion

Egypt boasts a history of more than 8000 years. The country’s rich history is full of disruptive make-overs.
There have been several significant changes in the past 20 years alone, as is also evident form our analysis. The
country has time and again, managed to adapt to these. However, significant issues, as are highlighted
throughout the report, remain unsolved.
The Egyptian economy has majorly relied on subsidies to help beef up the social-security net of the country.
This policy stung the Egyptian economy in the years following the civil war, with the government not being
able to fund its expenditure. The result was abolishing these very subsidies, EGP free floating, subsequent
inflation, and hardships for the poorest of poor. Even though the growth figure jumped after these reforms, the
question on the associated tradeoff remains. Data from CBE and The Economist highlights a remarkable fact.
Adjusted for inflation, which peaked at 33% in 2017, Egyptians are earning less than they did three years ago.
In totality, it seems that Egypt’s economy is being propelled forward by stepping on the poverty-hit people of
the country.
While we do not support fuel subsidies (which used to exist in Egypt), fiscal policy shift towards focused
expenditure on education through efficient income transfers (like Direct Benefit Transfer, undertaken by India)
to the poor would reduce the inefficiencies associated with subsidies. The government must focus on bringing
down the public-school fees, and other essential services, to help the cause of poor, who were the hardest hit
due to the recent double-digit inflation. There is also a need to build better healthcare facilities and hospitals,
for which the government seems to be taking some steps forward. However, these steps must be business
friendly. Additionally, it looks as if the government wants to squeeze out as much money as they can, from its
people. However, the government should be pragmatic about the issue, understanding that high tax rates might
not always result in high revenues. Further, unclear and excessive taxation policies will hamper the FDIs in the
economy as well.
The country’s population growth has been staggering, especially in the past 3 years. This puts undue pressure
on the resource availability with any country, and reduces the positive impacts of the economic growth as well.
Sources: IMF, CBE, World Bank, Bloomberg, CEIC, The Economist
By Group-6: Kritika Ahuja (E006), Veeraraghavan D (E016), Siddharth Gupta (E026), Soutik Kumar (E036), Omkar Palsule
(E046), Akash Sharma (E056)
A renewed focus on educating the people on the importance of controlling population growth rate will be an
intelligent decision, helping reduce the population growth rate and in the process, pushing up the per capita
GDP growth rate significantly.
On the monetary front, the CBE has done a good job in controlling the inflation, which at one point, looked
would never stop spiraling up. The inflation rate, through active policy monitoring, has been brought down
from a high of 33% in 2017 to 3.1% in the last reporting month, October 2019. The CBE exhibited the foresight
to hike interest rate steeply, as soon as it floated the EGP to $ exchange rate. The result was that even though
the inflation rate increased initially, CBE could continue to focus on maintaining a tightening stance, until
inflation started receding significantly. Unemployment level, which also rose following the years after political
unrest, have been brought down by the fiscal policy-monitory policy mix. However, the youth unemployment
remains disturbingly high, and the government policies must take this into cognizance. The exchange rate free
floating resulted in booming tourism industry. It has also impacted the external account negatively, but this is
the true reflection of the current account. Hiding this by artificially high exchange rate would just have delayed
the crisis. Moreover, in the long run, we expect to see the imports decline and the current account balance to
improve.
However, the CBE faces a new headache. The inflation cooled off very suddenly in the economy. In such a light,
it becomes a possibility that the economic output may be impacted negatively in the medium run. It might be
the case that declining economic activity (due to high real interest rate) is what is pulling the inflation rate
down (due to lower transactions demand for money). Hence it becomes difficult to determine on what basis
should the monetary policy proceed. As the inflation level has come down, it should no more be the only pillar
of the monetary policy, and hence other factors, like economic growth, competitive rates, unemployment rate,
etc. come into picture.
The real interest rate in the economy is still more than 10%. This is one of the highest real interest rates in the
world. Hence, in order to improve its competitiveness, the CBE should go ahead with the rate cuts, so as to
bring down the real rate of interest, to spur investments in the economy. This would also lead to a further
depreciation in the EGP, which would likely push up an already low inflation slightly. However, much caution
is required, as the country can ill-afford another episode of high inflation, which is what the loosening
monetary policy might ultimately result in, if not careful.
It is hard to believe that a country which has stood the test of time for so long, would fail to do it again.
However, it is not impossible. Egypt’s decline would result in a possible political and economic meltdown in a
region, which is already highly unstable and fragile. There is hence a more pressing need for the country’s
administration to handle the economy with sufficient care. Many significant issues still require solution and
sustained policy efforts. Egypt needs to take cognizance of these, before the discontent among public sparks
off another make-over.

Sources and References

References
1.
GDP Growth Rate, IMF:
https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD/EG
Y
2.
Population growth rate, IMF:
https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/LP@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD/EGY
3.
Life expectancy, World Bank: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN?locations=EG
Sources: IMF, CBE, World Bank, Bloomberg, CEIC, The Economist
By Group-6: Kritika Ahuja (E006), Veeraraghavan D (E016), Siddharth Gupta (E026), Soutik Kumar (E036), Omkar Palsule
(E046), Akash Sharma (E056)
 4.
Inflation (historical), CBE:
https://www.cbe.org.eg/en/EconomicResearch/Statistics/Pages/Inflationhistorical.aspx
5.
Government budget deficit, IMF:
https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/GGXCNL_NGDP@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD/
EGY
6.
Unemployment data from Bloomberg and CEIC,
https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/egypt/unemployment-rate
7.
Current account, IMF:
https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/BCA_NGDPD@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD/EG
Y
8.
Exchange rate (historical), CBE:
https://www.cbe.org.eg/en/EconomicResearch/Statistics/Pages/OfficialRateshistorical.aspx

Other references:
The Economist: Used for fiscal policy and monetary policy inputs

• https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2019/08/08/egypt-is-reforming-its-economy-but-
poverty-is-rising
• https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2019/04/25/egypts-economy-thrills-investors-but-
locals-are-struggling

For inflation, interest rate hikes and free-floating exchange rate regime:

• https://www.pwc.com/m1/en/publications/the-egp-devaluation-a-new-beginning.html
• https://www.reuters.com/article/egypt-cenbank/update-2-egypts-central-bank-makes-third-straight-cut-to-
interest-rates-idUSL8N27U7LU
• https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/why-inflation-is-so-high-in-egypt/
• https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-09/egypt-inflation-at-9-year-low-in-boost-for-central-
bank-rate-cut

Sources

• International Monetary Fund, IMF: for GDP growth rate (historical), population growth rate
(historical), government net borrowings as a % of GDP (historical), current account balance as a % of
GDP (historical)
• Central Bank of Egypt, CBE: Inflation data (historical)
• Bloomberg: Unemployment (historical), inflation (historical)
• Other Sources: National Statistics Agency (Egypt), World Bank, The Economist (for policy
information), TradingEconomics (for diagrams, data sourced at CBE)

Sources: IMF, CBE, World Bank, Bloomberg, CEIC, The Economist

By Group-6: Kritika Ahuja (E006), Veeraraghavan D (E016), Siddharth Gupta (E026), Soutik Kumar (E036), Omkar Palsule
(E046), Akash Sharma (E056)