PERMAFROST

SEMINAR REPORT
2013

Submitted by
JYOTHISHA.K

DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING

GOVERNMENT ENGINEERING COLLEGE, KOZHIKODE
 GOVERNMENT ENGINEERING COLLEGE
DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING

Certificate
Certified that this is the bona fide record of the seminar report work titled

PERMAFROST
Submitted by
JYOTHISHA.K
Reg.No. GCAJECE029
of the eight semester Civil Engineering in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the award of
the Degree of Bachelor of Technology in Civil Engineering of the University of Calicut during
the year 2013.

Guided by:

Ms. Mumthaz Prof. A.K. MARAKKARUTTY

Guest Lecturer Head of the department
Dept. of Civil Engineering Dept. of Civil Engineering
Govt. Engineering College Govt. Engineering College
Kozhikode Kozhikode

Kozhikode-5
Date: ………
 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

I gratefully acknowledge the excellent and incessant help given by

Ms. Mumthaz under whose supervision this Seminar work was carried out. I am grateful to
Prof.A.K.Marakkarutty, Head of the Department, Civil Engineering, for his generosity and sincere
help rented throughout the tenure of this project. It is my pleasure to express my profound thanks
and heart-felt gratitude to my parents & friends for their valuable suggestions and for encouraging
me throughout the course of this seminar.

JYOTHISHA.K
 TABLE OF CONTENTS

SERIAL PAGE
TITLE
NUMBER NUMBER
1 ABSTRACT 5
2 INTRODUCTION 6
DIFFICULTIES IN CONSTRUCTION ON
3 PERMAFROST 7
4 ENGINEERING DESIGN CONSIDERATIONS 9

4.1 Temperature Changes 9

4.2 Drainage 9
4.3 Type of Soil 9
Ground Ice 10
METHODS OF DETERMINING DEPTH AND
5 PRESENCE OF PERMAFROST 11

5.1 Rodding 11
5.2 Auger Boring 11
5.3 Digging 11
5.4 Machine Coring 11
6 FOUNDATION SELECTION 12

6.1 Gravel Pad 12

6.2 Wood Piles 13
6.3 Thermal Pipes or Freezing tubes 13
7 TWO PHASE CLOSED THERMOSYPHON 14
7.1 The working mechanism of TPCT 14
8 CASE STUDY 16
8.1 The Trans-Alaska Pipeline 16
8.2 Qingzang Railway 17
9 CONCLUSION 18
10 REFERENCE 19
 1. ABSTRACT

In geology, permafrost or cryotic soil is soil at or below the freezing point of water 0 °C
(32 °F) for two or more years. Most permafrost is located in high latitudes (i.e. land close to the
North and South poles), but alpine permafrost may exist at high altitudes in much lower latitudes.
Ice is not always present, as may be in the case of nonporous bedrock, but it frequently occurs and
it may be in amounts exceeding the potential hydraulic saturation of the ground material.
Permafrost accounts for 0.022% of total water and exists in 24% of exposed land in the Northern
Hemisphere.
 2. INTRODUCTION
Permafrost is the soil or rock, with or without included water that has remained at or below
0° C throughout the year for at least two consecutive years. Permafrost lies under the seasonal frost
and remains frozen throughout the summer. It is mostly found in the Polar Regions and in mountain
ranges at high altitude.
About one-fifth of the earth’s land mass contains permafrost. Almost one-half of the world’s
permanently frozen ground is in Russia and Siberia, one-third is in Canada, a large portion in
Alaska, China, Japan and Northern parts of Asia. In Arctic zones, permafrost occurs and may
extend several hundred feet below an active layer.
Permafrost is not necessarily continuous or permanent. Changes in climate and terrain may
cause permafrost to thaw and disappear. In recent decades, with global warming, permafrost has
decreased in the Arctic and across the world's mountain ranges. This has had a significant impact on
natural features and man-made structures.
Experiments and studies show that the geographic features of Mars is very similar to the
permafrost regions. Apart from the gravitational force variations and atmospheric conditions, this
feature of permafrost regions make it challenging to built a permanent space station and future
constructions in Mars.
Constructing buildings on permafrost requires specific knowledge about permafrost and
specialized building techniques. Disturbing permafrost carelessly may cause melting, resulting in
uneven foundation settling and disastrous consequences for the building. It is not always possible to
build safely on permafrost. Always use caution and use the utmost care when considering building
on permafrost.
Despite all the problems associated with building on permafrost, permafrost is important to
arctic life. Precipitation is minimal in the Arctic. What little there is accumulates on the soil surface
because it cannot penetrate into the soil. This causes large portions of the arctic landscape to be
waterlogged throughout the summer months. Plants, animals, and insects rely on this abundant
water source.

Permafrost
 3. DIFFICULTIES IN CONSTRUCTION ON PERMAFROST
Since a large amount of permafrost contains frozen water between its soil particles, when
that water is allowed (or made) to melt, the soil will often settle into the void space created as the
water flows away or deeper into the ground. Almost any human inhabited structure is a source of
heat. Thus, if unchecked, when a structure is built on permafrost soil, it will likely conduct some of
its heat down into the soil, which will then melt some interstitial ice (and reduce the soils icy
strength). When a structure suddenly has weaker soil underpinning it, it may begin to settle down,
sometimes at an alarming pace.

The susceptibility of engineering works to thaw-induced damage is particularly relevant to

communities and structures throughout northern Alaska, Russia, and Canada. It is clear from the
long-term paleographic record in these areas that climatic warming can lead to increases in
permafrost temperature, thickening of the active layer, and a reduction in the percentage of the
terrestrial surface underlain by near-surface permafrost. Such changes can lead to extensive
settlement of the ground surface, with attendant damage to infrastructure. Despite its name,
permafrost is characterized to a certain extent by instability. It is covered by a layer that freezes and
thaws with the seasons (the "active layer") and although it can be thousands of years old, it often
exists close to melting point.

While permafrost can extend hundreds of feet deep, it is only the top section that concerns
builders. This poses a problem, because permafrost usually does not begin until several feet below
ground level. So long as it remains frozen, ground level permafrost is very strong and stable for
building. Ground above the permafrost layer is the opposite. The freeze-thaw cycle allows the water
between the soil particles to melt and freeze repeatedly, which weakens the integrity of the soil.

Although uniform settling of a structure can cause problems, there are bigger issues
associated with differential settling. If one area of the structure is warmer than the others, the
ground there will give way more there and floor slabs will crack and sink. Eventually, the uneven
support of the structure could cause big foundation cracks and serviceability issues, leading to the
evacuation of said structure.

Fires also can prevent permafrost from forming. A severe fire will burn off the vegetative
layer that protects and insulates the underlying permafrost. Vegetation in a severely burned area
will take a much longer time to return to an area compared to a low intensity burn. The soil
temperature will rise, thus increasing the active layer, until that protective vegetative layer is
returned.
 There are three common ways to deal with permafrost. The first is to avoid it, but this is not
always possible. For example, 85% of Alaska has permafrost. The second is to destroy it, usually by
stripping away any insulating top layers including vegetation, but this takes years even for thin
layers of permafrost.

The third and most common is to preserve permafrost by insulating the structures to be built
on top of it. One way to do this is to build on piles which allow air to circulate between the structure
and the ground. This is why the Alaska pipeline is elevated. A variant on this method is to install
open pipes under the structure, which carry unwanted heat away from the permafrost. Another way
of preserving underlying permafrost is to raise the construction ground with gravel to the height of
the foundations, or to dig down to permafrost and replace the soil with gravel. Such gravel infilling
is common in northern road construction.
 4. ENGINEERING DESIGN CONSIDERATIONS
The same factors that determine the local occurrence of permafrost must be taken into
account when designing buildings for permafrost areas. These are
 Temperature changes
 Drainage
 Type of soil
 Ground ice
4.1 Temperature Changes :

Permafrost is an excellent foundation as long as it remains frozen. But it is very sensitive to

temperature changes. Changes to the ground surface, like removing the ground cover, will change
the temperature of the ground causing the permafrost to thaw and possibly lose its rigidity. A
building radically changes the way heat moves in and out of the soil. Buildings are normally heated
in the winter, adding heat to the soil. A building also shades the soil in the summer, preventing
exposure to the sun. So, the soil is warm in the winter when it should be cold, and cold in the
summer when it should be warm. Several methods are used to keep the soil beneath the building
frozen and the permafrost stable. The strategy for reducing the engineering risks of building on
permafrost sites is to build the structure on piles or an elevated foundation taking special care to
insulate the ground and prevent thawing.

4.2 Drainage :

Permafrost, because it is frozen, is nearly impermeable to moisture. Water that occurs above
the permafrost table (the top of the permanently frozen layer), and the active zone on top of this
layer is extremely difficult to drain. So in spite of low rainfall poor drainage becomes extremely
noticeable. When flying over a permafrost area, the ground surface appears very wet because a thin
layer of water is trapped and unable to drain through the underlying permafrost zone. Permafrost
consequently limits ground water recharge into the subsurface areas below the permafrost.

4.3 Type of Soil :

Soil type is an important consideration when selecting a building site. Solid rock, gravel,
and sand normally contain very little ice at freezing temperatures or below. Thawing therefore does
not result in as much settling with coarse soils as with fine grain materials. Fine grain soils–such as
silt, clay or peat–typically have high ice content. They are susceptible to settling when permafrost
melts. These soils are also susceptible to heaving. However, when thawed, these soils can change
into soft slurry with very little strength for supporting a building and foundation failure can result.

4.4 Ground Ice :

The riparian soils found in Alaskan river valleys are nearly always friable (soft) silt. These
soils are highly susceptible to frost action and heaving. This type of soil combines good water
retention characteristics with a high hydraulic conductivity, factors that are necessary for ice lenses
to develop. In permafrost areas large masses of clear subterranean ice are formed. When these ice
lenses melt, they often leave large holes in the surface of the ground.
 5. METHODS OF DETERMINING DEPTH AND PRESENCE OF
PERMAFROST
Determining the conditions of permafrost at a site is made by measuring the depth of the
active layer down to the permafrost.

There are four methods of locating the depth of permafrost:

 Rodding
 Auger boring
 Digging
 Machine coring
5.1 Rodding :
Rodding is commonly used as a quick guide for determining depth to permafrost or the
thickness of the active layer. A ¼ to ½ inch sharpened steel rod is driven with a heavy hammer until
it cannot be penetrated. The rod is then turned by a wrench. If the rod turns easily, it probably hit a
stone. If back spring occurs, the rod has probably penetrated wood or permafrost. The sound of the
rod may indicate whether it struck a stone, wood or ice. A sharp clang indicates a stone, a dull clang
indicates ice, and a dead thud indicates wood.
5.2 Auger Boring :
Auger boring is usually more conclusive in determining the depth to permafrost. Auger
boring can also supply information on ground water levels and types of soils.
5.3 Digging :
Digging a pit requires more labour , but is a fairly reliable method of determining the active
layer depth and allows the character of the permafrost and the soil to be studied.
5.4 Machine Coring :

Machine coring is the most positive method of determining the depth of the active layer, the
thickness of the permafrost, and the characteristics of the frozen and unfrozen soil. Machine coring
is the recommended method to use before constructing all commercial and industrial buildings on
permafrost. The cost of boring is minor compared to the cost of repairing foundations that may
settle because of thawing permafrost.
 6. FOUNDATION SELECTION
After general site conditions are evaluated, a more detailed investigation is normally
required at the specific construction site. Alternatives can be selected when you are sure there is
permafrost present. Perennial freezing can be ignored on well-drained, coarse grained river sand
and gravel or bedrock, because they have few associated problems. In a continuous permafrost
zone, particularly with fine grained soils with high ice content, every effort must be made to
preserve frozen conditions. In the discontinuous zone, it may be necessary to remove frozen
material that is susceptible to frost action.

For some types of structures, in either continuous or discontinuous zones, it may not be
possible to prevent thawing without special design considerations. Permafrost may need to be
preserved through a combination of insulation and ventilation techniques.

These are :-
 Gravel pad
 Wood piles
 Thermal pipes or freezing tubes

6.1 Gravel Pad :

A gravel pad4-to-6-foot deep can be used to insulate the active layer. It is a way of
preserving underlying permafrost is to raise the construction ground with gravel to the height of the
foundations, or to dig down to permafrost and replace the soil with gravel. Such gravel infilling is
common in northern road construction

The building can be set on mud sills or other suitable foundation that allows free circulation of air
beneath the structure floor. The floor must be insulated to reduce heat transfer from the structure.
Some settling must be anticipated and taken into account in the design of the foundation. Boards of
polystyrene insulation were put down under the gravel bed to reduce the amount of gravel needed
while still providing the desired insulative effect

Foundation designs for non thaw stable permafrost commonly include piles or post and pad
foundations designed to thermally isolate the structure from the ground surface, thereby reducing
the transfer of building heat and subsequent thawing of underlying permafrost. Although these
foundations are cost effective and common for many structures, they are less desirable for heavy
structures or structures that are designed for high live loads. The concept of constructing structures
on a passively refrigerated gravel pad has proven to be a valuable and effective foundation design
alternative for foundations on non thaw-stable permafrost.

Gravel Pad

6.2 Wood Piles :

Wood piles anchored in the permafrost are considered the most stable foundation for arctic
building. The piles should be well embedded in the permafrost and the structure is raised above the
ground to permit natural air circulation beneath the structure and to minimize heat flow from the
structure to the frozen ground. Piles are driven in place with a pile driver. However, the permafrost
must be melted with a steam jet. The piles can be set in an augured hole filled with slurry and
allowed to refreeze. Autumn and early winters are the best time to set piles for the next construction
season. Piles should set undisturbed for a year until firmly frozen and anchored in place by the
permafrost. Sometimes piles are fitted with refrigeration coils to fasten the freezing process. The
tops of the piles are cut off 4 to 5 feet above ground, allowing free air circulation beneath the
structure floor.

Wooden Piles
6.3 Thermal Piles or Freezing Tubes :

Thermal piles or freezing tubes can be used to increase the depth, stability and amount of
permafrost and for stabilization during warm weather. These devices are filled with a non-freezing
liquid and use heat convection, drawing heat from the earth during sub-zero weather and convicting
it to the atmosphere. The power for the convection cycle comes from the warmer soil temperatures
in the ground. Building foundations should be designed with a uniform weight distribution. Lightly-
loaded, improperly anchored piles may be pushed out of permafrost by the active layer and heaving
action. Piles should be fitted with a slip fit casing that will minimize the surface friction on the
piles. In lightly loaded structures–houses for example–the number of rows of piles and beams
should be balanced for uniform load distribution and to minimize uneven floor movement. An
improperly designed structure may be costly to realign once it has settled. Foundations should be
designed for easy access to realignment and adjustment areas in the event minor dimensional
changes occur. At grade structures founded on thaw-unstable permafrost must rely on some form of
subgrade cooling system to intercept heat that could thaw the underlying subsoil, or the structures
must be designed to accommodate large differential settlements. Both active (mechanical) and
passive refrigeration systems have been used for sub-grade cooling beneath at-grade structures with
varying degrees of success.

Thermal Piles or Freezing Tubes

 7. TWO PHASE CLOSED THERMOSYPHON
A two-phase closed thermosyphon (TPCT) is a highly efficient heat transfer device,
decreasing the ground temperature around it in cold season, but not absorbing heat energy in warm
season. TPCT has effective thermal conductivity exceeds that of copper 200–500 times. Compared
with other types of heat pipes, the TPCT is structure-simple. Therefore, TPCTs are widely being
applied in many fields including heat exchangers, solar energy conversion systems, spacecraft
thermal control, etc. Besides these applications, in the engineering construction of permafrost
regions, one way to prevent the foundation damage caused by frost heaving in winter and thaw
settlement in summer is to use the TPCT. This technology has widely been applied to protect the
underlying permafrost of the cold regions roadway engineering. The Qinghai-Tibet Railway and
Qinghai-Tibet Highway are the examples for using this technology.

7.1 The working mechanism of TPCT :

TPCT is a highly efficient device that carries the internal heat without the aid of the external
power supply. The TPCT uses liquid Nitrogen as working fluid. The TPCT is divided into three
sections: evaporator- section, adiabatic-section and condenser- section. When the temperature on
the evaporator section is higher than that on the condenser section, the working fluid in the
evaporator section absorbs the external heat energy and vaporizes through the adiabatic section to
the condenser section because of the vapor pressure. In the condenser section, the vapor is
condensed on the wall, releasing its latent heat of vaporization and then, returns along the wall to
the evaporator section under gravity. However, when the temperature on the evaporator section is
equals to or is lower than that on condenser section, the heat transfer process stops. Therefore, the
heat energy of the underlying soil is dissipated into the outside air when the external is of lower
temperature. But when this soil's temperature is lower than the air temperature, the soil does not
receive external heat from TPCT. Thereby, installing the TPCT into the embankment in permafrost
regions can significantly cool down the underlying permafrost.

Part I is railway ballast; Part II is embankment fill, Part III is sub clay, and Part IV is
weathered mudstone. Part V is TPCT which is composed of the working liquid of ammonia and the
carbon-steel tube, and the interval of the TPCTs is 4.0 m.

Thermosyphons function because of the two-phase working fluid. The working fluid is
contained in a closed, sealed vessel (Thermopile or Thermo probe) that is partially buried.
Thermosyphons have typically functioned passively in cold climates during the winter months, at
which time the above-ground portion is subjected to cold ambient air which cools and condenses
the working fluid. The condensed fluid gravitates to below-ground level. Below ground, subjected
to warmer temperatures, the working fluid warms, vaporizes, and rises upward to repeat the cycle.
This continuous recycling is irreversible because the cycling ceases in the summer when the air
temperature is above the soil temperature. This closed two-phase process should not be confused
with the open two-phase process whereby liquid nitrogen is used in ground freezing applications.
The latter process simply releases the nitrogen gas to the atmosphere having gained sufficient heat
from the soil to vaporize the liquid nitrogen.

The coupled air-TPCT-soil heat transfer model can reasonably describe the heat transfer
process of TPCT embankment; The TPCT is a highly effective heat transfer device and can reduce
the ground temperature around it in cold season. Furthermore, it hardly transfers heat energy in
warm season; The TPCT embankment can effectively protect the underlying permafrost and ensure
the stability of embankment in permafrost regions. Furthermore, it could play rapidly a cooling
effect on the underlying soil layers and its temperature fields tend to be stable after 5 years of
construction. It is recommended to use the TPCT in the construction of new engineering and/or in
the maintenance of the existing engineering in permafrost regions. Besides, the TPCT, if combined
with other engineering methods, e.g. insulation, crushed rock, etc., will be an more effective
engineering measure to ensure the stability of engineering in warm permafrost regions.

Physical Configuration of TPCT The computational model of TPCT embankment

 8. CASE STUDY
8.1 The Trans-Alaska Pipeline :
The Trans-Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS), the only large-diameter pipeline to traverse
environmentally sensitive permafrost terrain has been called an engineering marvel. 1,287 km of the
pipeline with the diameter of 122 cm that conveys oil from Prudhoe Bay, to Valdez, Alaska. The
crude oil pipeline is privately owned by the Alyeska Pipeline Service Company.
The construction of the pipeline was one of the first large-scale projects to deal with
problems caused by permafrost, and special construction techniques had to be developed to cope
with the frozen ground. To avoid permafrost degradation, soil liquefaction, and subsidence, pipeline
along 434 of the 800 miles of the TAPS was elevated on vertical support members (VSMs) The
VSMs represented a new approach to engineering when they were designed in the early 1970s.
Design standards were based on the permafrost and climate conditions of the period 1950–1970.
The objectives of the design were to eliminate thawing of permafrost soils and maintain soil
stability. About 61,000 of the 78,000 VSMs are equipped with pairs of thermosyphons (heat pipes),
which were installed to remove heat from the permafrost by releasing it to the atmosphere. They are
designed to operate between a range of temperatures in summer and winter and were installed
mainly in areas of warm permafrost.
The pipeline includes 200 elevated segments, where the thermosyphons function is
particularly important because local soils have high liquefaction potential. A thawing south-facing
slope first identified in 1990 at the Squirrel Creek crossing resulted in one VSM tilting seven
degrees by 1993. VSMs at this site were replaced in 2000. Proper functioning of the VSMs is
critical to the future reliability of the TAPS. It is important to note that the 20-year period used to
determine design standards was one of the coldest periods in recent Alaskan history.
In addition to the TAPS segments elevated on VSMs, soil stability in non-permafrost areas
where the pipeline is buried may be affected. While there was no permafrost located immediately
adjacent to the buried pipeline, changes in freeze–thaw depth, water table location, and soil bearing
capacity may cause degradation in down slope areas, river crossings, and other areas.
Oil going into the Trans-Alaska Pipeline comes from one of several oil fields on Alaska's
North Slope. The Prudhoe Bay Oil Field, the one most commonly associated with the pipeline,
contributes oil, as do the Kuparuk, Alpine, Endicott, and Liberty oil fields, among others. Oil
emerges from the ground at approximately 49 °C and cools to 44 °C by the time it reaches Pump
Station 1 through feeder pipelines that stretch across the North Slope North Slope crude oil has a
specific gravity of 29.9 API at 16 °C. In 2008, the pipeline carried approximately 110,000 m3/d,
less than its theoretical maximum capacity of 340,000 m3/d. From Pump Station 1 it takes an
average of 11.9 days for oil to travel the entire length of the pipeline to Valdez, a speed of 6.0 km/h.

Trans Alaska Pipeline

8.2 Qingzang Railway :

The Qingzang railway is a high-altitude railway that connects Xining, Qinghai Province, to
Lhasa, Tibet Autonomous Region, in China. The total length of Qingzang railway is 1956 km.
Construction of the 815 km section between Xining and Golmud was completed by 1984. The 1142
km section between Golmud and Lhasa was inaugurated on 1July 2006.

The railroad traverses stretches of unstable permafrost and harsh mountain roads. It reaches
the highest altitude of any railroad in the world at more than 5,072 m above sea level. The Tanggula
Mountain at 5,072 meters above is now the location of the Tanggula Railway Station, the highest
railway station in the world. Referred to as “the loftiest rail stopover”, the station is operated and
monitored by satellite.

During the journey to and from Lhasa, the railway passes through thirty kilometers of
tunnels and 286 bridges to avoid contact with a layer of ice that melts and refreezes almost daily
according to the seasons, and also to avoid contact with the unstable permafrost that lies a meter or
more below the earth’s surface. Of the 1,956kms of track that form the railway, 960kms lie at an
altitude of over 4,000 meters above sea level, and 550kms are built on continuous permafrost.
Perhaps more importantly, of the track lengths laid over permafrost, 190kms are considered
unstable and 100kms, most unstable. Pipes fitted with cooling elements and driven into the earth’s
crust have been used to stabilize track embankments on permafrost.

There were and are many technical difficulties for such a railway. About half of the second
section was built on barely permanent permafrost. In the summer, the uppermost layer thaws, and
the ground becomes muddy. Chinese engineers dealt with this problem by building elevated tracks
with foundations sunk deep into the ground, building hollow concrete pipes beneath the tracks to
keep the rail bed frozen, and using TPCT.

Qingzang Railway
 9. CONCLUSION
Construction on permafrost is challenging and should be done with utmost care since
permafrost is highly susceptible to temperature changes Suitable foundation should be selected and
proper insulation and ventilation technique should be used while construction is done on
permafrost. Disturbing permafrost carelessly may cause melting of ice resulting in uneven
foundation settling and disastrous consequences for the building. It is not always possible to safely
build on permafrost. Always use caution and use the utmost respect when considering building on
permafrost. Changes in climate and terrain may cause permafrost to thaw and disappear. TPCT is
an effective heat transfer device decreasing the ground temperature around it in cold season, but not
absorbing heat energy in warm season Before construction in permafrost regions, it is necessary to
stabilize the ground. For this we use Gravel pad, wood piles and Thermal pipes or freezing tubes.
 10. REFERENCES
1. Mingyi Zhang , Yuanming Lai, Jianming Zhang, Zhizhong Sun,”Numerical study on cooling
characteristics of two-phase closed thermosyphon embankment in permafrost regions”, Cold
Regions Science and Technology, August 2010.
2. Richard Seifert, “PERMAFROST A Building Problem in Alaska”, Energy Specialist
Cooperative Extension Service, the University of Alaska Fairbanks Cooperative Extension
Service, February 2009.
3. Johnston. G.H, “Engineering Site Investigations in Permafrost Areas”, National Research
Council of Canada, 1966.
4. French H, Nelson F, “Frozen in Time: Permafrost and Engineering Problems”, American
Society of Civil Engineers 2008.
5. Permafrost on Mars and Earth, NASA’s Earth Observatory, May 2008.
6. Smith M.W, D.W Rise borough, “Permafrost monitoring and detection of climatic change”,
1996.