1

El Futuro de la Guí a de
Diseño Mecaní stico-
Empí rico

Current Status
M-E Based Procedures—
Procedures— NOT a New
Concept or Approach!
n Shell, 1977
n FHWA, 1979
n Asphalt Institute, 1982
n South African, 1992
n Illinois, Kentucky, Minnesota, Texas, Washington

Its time has arrived because of

changes in materials, design
strategies, trucks, & other inputs!
 3

Current Status
MEPDG —Manual of Practice;
Summer 2007
1. Balloted through AASHTO—100%
affirmative vote.
2. Provide guidance on its use.
a) Determining the inputs.
b) Interpreting the outputs.

Current Status
Manual of Recommended Practice for
Calibration of M -E Based Models
1. Confirming or adjusting the global calibration
factors.
2. Detailed and practical guide to complete local
calibration.
MEPDG Software
NCHRP Project 1-40B
 5

Current Status
FHWA 2007 Summary of Agency
Plans—Efforts to Implement MEPDG
Does Agency Have Implementation Plan?

100
Responding (52)
Percent of Total

80
60
40
20
0
Yes < 0.5 0.5 to 1.0 1.0 to 5.0 > 5.0
Range of Cost for Implementation Plan, $M

Current Status
Local Implementation Efforts:
A Dual Experimental Plan.
v
v
1. Verify/confirm
calibration
v
v v factors
v &
v
default values.
v
2. Establish vinput
v
libraries.
 7

Current Uses
Use examples within the interim time frame.
n Missouri—Develop equivalent pavement
designs for Alternate Pavement Bids.
n Michigan—Evaluate pavement designs for
perpetual pavements.
n Colorado—Determining the effect of
increasing the allowable axle loads on
pavement performance.

Current Uses —Examples

Measured
4000.0 Predicted
Transverse Cracking (ft/mile)

3000.0

2000.0

1000.0

0.0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Time (Months)

Montana — Quantify effect of pavement

Montana—
preservation activities & strategies.
 9

Current Uses—Examples

1 2

3
Structural & Mix Design JMF
Integration: Specification
Compatibility

10

Comparison of Neat & PMA Calibration

Values: Rutting
MEPDG Global Value Line of
Rutting Calibration Factor,

-2
Equality
kr1 , PMA Mixes

-2.5
Outlier
-3

-3.5 k r1( PMA) = 1.13kr1( NeatHMA)

-4
-3.5 -3 -2.5 -2 -1.5
Rutting Calibration Factor, k r1 , Neat HMA Mixes
 11

#1

#2

#4
#3

kr1( PMA) = 1.13k r1( NeatHMA)

12

Comparison of Neat & PMA Calibration

Values; Fatigue
Line of
Fatigue Calibration Factor,

1 Equality
Kf1, PMA Mixes

0.1
0.01

0.001
0.0001 MEPDG Global Value
0.00001
0.00001 0.0001 0.001 0.01 0.1 1
Fatigue Calibration Factor, Kf 1, Neat Mixes

( ( ))
− − Log k f 1 ( NeatHMA ) 0. 8
k f 1( PMA ) = 10
 13

Comparison of Neat & PMA Calibration Values;

Transverse Cracking
100
Line of Equality
Calibration Coefficient, Kt3,

MEPDG Global Value

PMA Mixes

10

0.1
0.1 1 10 100
Calibration Coefficient, Kt3, Neat Mixes

β t 3 (PMA ) = β t 3( NeatHMA )

14

Current Uses —Examples

n Rutting:
l Over predicted in unbound layers.
l Under predicted in HMA layers.

n Thermal cracking:
l Over predicted in very cold environments.
l Under predicted in warm environments.

n Surface initiated cracking—does not

accurately predict measurements.
n Reflection cracking is an empirical
relationship.
 15

Verification/Local Calibration

LTPP GPS Test Sections Used in

Calibration of Distress Prediction
Models;
NCHRP Projects 1-37A & 1 -40D

16

Verification/Local Calibration
- Expansive Soils
- Maintenance/Preservation
Strategies
- New Technology & Material
Differences
- Other Design Policies &
Features

Consideration of factors NOT

included in MEPDG global calibration
process.
 17

Verification/Local Calibration
Measured
0.4 Predicted
Data measurement issues!
0.3
Rutting (in/mile)

0.2

0.1

0.0
0 20 40 60 80 100
Time (Months)

Data measurement errors represent the

higher component of the total error term.

18

Verification & Local Calibration

1. NCHRP 1-40B – Local Calibration

for the Recommended Guide for M-
E Design of New and Rehabilitated
Pavement Structures.
 19

Calibration—NCHRP 1-40B
¯ Simulated truck loading
¯ Full-scale truck loading
¯ Roadway; mixed truck loading

¯Ages
¯Climates
¯Mixtures
¯Different Loads
¯Volumetric Properties

20

Mix Calibration—Rutting
APT, Full-Scale Truck Loading Line of Equality
APT, Simulated Truck Loading Roadway, Mixed Truck Traffic

1.6
Predicted HMA Rut

1.4
1.2
Depth, in.

1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6
Measured Rut Depth, in.

# of Bias RMSE Se /Sy R2

Points
418 0.0303 0.1170 0.439 0.837
 21

Mix Calibration—Fatigue
WesTrack Line of Equality NCAT-Round 2 SPS-1

100
Cracking, % Total Lane

90
Predicted Fatigue

80
70
60
Area

50
40
30
20
10
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Measured Fatigue Cracking, % Total Lane Area

Bias RMSE Se /Sy R2

-0.616 7.84 0.409 0.841

22

Future Enhancements
n AASHTO responsible for making
future enhancements & revisions
n Version 2.0; 2009
n Future & on-going projects to
Develop or upgrade performance
prediction models.
 23

Future Enhancements
1. NCHRP 1-40A & AASHTO – Independent
Review, prioritize the modifications.
2. NCHRP 9-30A – Calibration of Rutting
Models for HMA Structural and Mix Design.
3. NCHRP 9-42 – Top-Down Cracking of HMA.
4. Reflection Cracking of HMA Overlays.
5. NCHRP 9-44 – Application of the Endurance
Limit for HMA Mixes.

24

Training
Ø NHI Course 131064; Introduction to
Mechanistic Design for New &
Rehabilitated Pavements.
Ø NHI Course 131109; Analysis of New &
Rehabilitation Pavements with the
MEPDG.
 25

Should we wait until its PERFECT ?

AASHTO Guide Time, yrs. MEPDG
n 1958; Road Test n 1989; LTPP
initiated initiated
-4
n 1962; AASHO n 1998; MEPDG
Road Test initiated
complete 10
n 2007; MEPDG
n 1972; Interim delivered
Design Guide 24
n 1986; Update
n 1993; Update
31
n 2008; still not
perfect. 46

26

Should we wait until its

PERFECT?
n If we wait until there are no more
changes, we will never use it.
n If we wait for perfection, it will be
impractical and cost will restrict its use.
There is NO perfect
procedure & it will never
be perfect!
 27

Remember where we
are coming from, as
you use the MEPDG!
Ø Assumptions used in the
Design Guides?
Ø Calibration of both Design
Guides?
Ø Error in the service life
predictions of both Design
Guides?

28

The future of
pavement
design, &
making it
better with
time!!

Thank you for your attention!