Traffic demand analysis (TDA) * If transport planners wish to modify a highway network either by constructing a new roadway or by instituting a program of traffic management improvements, traffic volume study is necessary. * Knowledge of the traffic volumes over its life span to be estimated, leading to the selection of number of standard width lanes in each direction to provide the desired level of service or the capacity of existing road that either the road need widening or some traffic managementTDA & Trip studies * Highway demand analysis is performed to explain travel behavior within the area under scrutiny, and, on the basis of this understanding, to predict the demand for the highway project or system of highway services proposed. * The prediction of highway demand requires a unit of measurement for travel behavior to be defined. This unit is termed a trip and involves movement from a single origin to a single destination.TDA The parameters utilized to detail the nature and extent of a given trip are as: * Purpose * Time of departure and arrival * Mode employed * Distance of origin from destination * Route travelledTDA * In highway demand analysis, the justification for a trip is based on the utility derived from a trip. * An individual will only make a trip if it makes the economic benefit or utility of making a trip is greater than the benefit achieved by not travelling, otherwise it makes sense to stay at home as travelling results in no economic benefit to the individual concerned. * Utility defines the ‘usefulness’ in economic terms of a given activity. Where two possible trips are open to an individual, the one with the greatest utility will be undertakenTDA * One should assume that the payment received by a given worker exceeds the cost of making the trip, otherwise it would have no utility or economic basis. * The ‘cost’ need not necessarily be in money terms, but can also be the time taken or lost by the traveller while making the journey. If an individual can travel to their place of work in more than one way, say for example by either car or bus, they will use the mode of travel that costs the least amount, as this will allow them to maximize the net utility derived from the trip to their destination. Net utility is obtained by subtracting the cost of the trip from the utility generated by the economic activity performed at the traveller’s destination.Travel demand modeling (TDM) ¢ All parameters determining the level of activity within a highway network must first be identified so that the results output from the model has an acceptable level of accuracy. * Acomplicating factor in the modeling process is that, for a given trip emanating from a particular location, once a purpose has been established for making it, there are an enormous number of decisions relating to that trip, all of which must be considered and acted on simultaneously within the model.TDM These can be classified as: Temporal decisions — once the decision has been made to make the journey, it still remains to be decided when to travel Decisions on chosen journey destination — a specific destination must be selected for the trip, e.g. a place of work, a shopping district or a school Modal decisions relate to what mode of transport the traveller intends to use, be it car, bus, train or slower modes such as cycling/walking Spatial decisions — focus on the actual physical route taken from origin to final destination.TDM * In basic highway model, the simplification can take the form of two stages: * (1) Separation of trips by purpose and time of day * (2) Estimating (a) the number of trips made from a given area under consideration, (b) the origin and destination of each, (c) the mode of travel used and (e) the route selectedTDM Four distinct traffic models are used to predict the movement of specific area’s population at a specific time of day. The models are: * The trip generation model, estimating the number of trips made to and from a given segment of the study area + The trip distribution model, estimating the origin and destination of each trip. * The modal choice model, estimating the form of travel chosen for each trip + The route assignment model, predicting the route selected for each trip.Land use models (LUM) * The relationships between land uses and people movements are fundamental to an effective transport planning. * Aland use model estimate the future development for each of the zones within the study area, with estimates relating not only to predictions regarding the different land uses but also to those socio-economic variables that form the basic data for trip generation, the first of the four-stage sequential models.LUM = * Itis the numerical relationship between land use and movement information derived using statistical/mathematical techniques. * A regression analysis is employed to establish, the relationship between the vehicle trips produced and characteristics derived both from the land use study and demographic projections. * This leads to the first trip modeling stage — trip generation.Trip generation studies (TGS) * In transportation Engg., three major variables govern the rate at which trips are made within the study area: 1. Distance of zone from the central business district/city centre area 2. Socio-economic characteristics of the zone population (per capita income, cars available per household) 3. Intensity of land use (housing units per hectare, employees per square meter of office space).TGS * The relationships between trips generated and the relevant variables are expressed as : Ty= aot arZij+a2Z2jt- t+anZ nj where Tij = number of vehicle trips per time period for trip type i (work, non- work) made by household j Z= characteristic value n for household j, based on factors such as the house-hold income level and number of cars available within it a= regression coefficient estimated from travel survey data relating tonTGS The model in simplified form can be written as: T=0+ 0.07 * Z:+ 0.005 * Z2+ 0.95 *Z3- 0.003 *Z4 where T = total number of trips per household per 24 hours Z1 = family size 22 = total income of household Z3 = cars per household 24 = housing densityExample The following model is compiled for shopping trips generated during the weekly peak hour for this activity (5.30pm to 6.30pm on Fridays). The relationship is expressed as: Tshopping = 0.15 + 0.1 * Z1 + 0.01 *Z2- 0.145 *Z3 where T = total number of vehicle-based shopping trips per household in peak hour Z1 = household size Z2 = annual income of household Z3 = employment in neighbourhoodExample * Calculate the trip rate for a household of four people with an annual income of Rs 30 000 within a neighborhood where 1000 people are employed. Solution: Number of trips = 0.15 + 0.1* 4 + 0.01* 30 - 0.145 *10 = 2.3 vehicle tripsExample For a given urban zone, using the information on trip rates given and the number of each household category within it as given, calculate the total number of daily trips generated by the 100 households within the zone. Solution For each table cell, multiply the trip rate for each category by the number of households in each category, summing all values to obtain a total number of daily trips as follows: T=4*1.04 + 23 *1.85+2*2.15+2*2.024+14*3.14+14*3.841* 2.6 +9*3.44+14*40+0*3.8+5*48+7*64+0*424+1*5.2+4* 6.4 = 340.45Daily trip rates per household category Available cars per household Household pop. 0 1 2 1 1.04 1.85 2.15 2 2.02 3.10 3.80 5 2.60 3.40 4.00 4 3.80 4.80 6.40 S+ 4.20 5.20 6.40Category analysis table Household pop. Available cars per household Oo 1 a+ 1 4 23 2 2 2 14 14 3 1 9 14 4 0 5 7 5+ 0 1 4