Bank Mandiri

(BMRI IJ)
4Q18 preview: Solidifying the groundwork

For 4Q18, we expect Bank Mandiri (BMRI) to post earnings of IDR6,096.3bn (+3.1%
QoQ, +9.4% YoY), driven by stable net interest margin (NIM), solid loan growth, and
Banks stable expenses. For 2018 as a whole, despite subdued top-line growth, we
anticipate better bottom-line growth on the back of strengthened credit risk
Company Report management, which has helped lower NPL ratio in problem segments and credit
January 22, 2019 costs. In 2019, we see upside (albeit small) for NIM, along with solid loan growth.
Asset quality should also improve thanks to management’s conservative stance.

4Q18 NIM stable QoQ; Improvement to come in 2019

(Maintain) Trading Buy
BMRI’s funding costs have increased since 1Q18, while loan yield reversed its trend
Target Price (12M, IDR) 8,700 in 3Q18. We believe asset yield and funding costs were higher in 4Q18, likely
keeping NIM flat; note that retail rate adjustments were carried out only for new
Share Price (1/21/19, IDR) 7,800 loan bookings. Nevertheless, a stable NIM was good enough to boost top line YoY,
given the NIM downtrend in 2017. Going forward, NIM should improve slightly
Expected Return 11.5% after new loan bookings start to affect overall loan yield. Also, BMRI will likely
continue to hike rates, with banks entering a rate hike cycle to offset funding costs.

Stabilizing loan growth in 4Q18; Loan growth to stay solid in 2019

Consensus OP (19F, IDRtr) 37.2 Loans (bank only) grew 13.9% YoY in 11M18, even outpacing 3Q18 (+13.0% YoY).
However, loan growth likely stabilized in 4Q18 given: 1) the high base effect from
EPS Growth (19F, %) 14.5 short-term borrowers in 4Q17, and 2) the gradual reduction in the lending portion
P/E (19F, x) 13.2 (working capital) of Pertamina—one of the drivers of non-IDR loan growth in
Industry P/E (19F, x) 13.9 2018—due to lower commodity prices. We estimate 2018 total loan growth at
Benchmark P/E (19F, x) 14.9 11.6% YoY, within BMRI’s full-year target range (11-13%). We believe loan growth
Market Cap (IDRbn) 364,000.0 will remain the key driver in 2019, given the normalization of problem segments
and BMRI’s efforts to take advantage of promising markets and sectors.
Shares Outstanding (mn) 46,666.7
Management hinted that for problem segments downsized throughout 2018,
Free Float (mn) 18,662.4
credit quality has improved enough to starting considering new loans in 2019.
Institutional Ownership (%) 78
Loans to the small and medium corporate segments shrank 6.8% and 10.0% YoY in
Beta (Adjusted, 24M) 1.4
3Q18, with NPL ratios of 2.96% and 10.86%, respectively. Meanwhile, we expect
52-Week Low (IDR) 6,175
BMRI to continue focusing on disbursing micro (salary-based) loans (disbursed to
52-Week High (IDR) 9,050
only 500,000 out of 4mn accounts so far). Despite recent downward movements in
(%) 1M 6M 12M bond yields, the current spread between bond yields and lending rates is still too
Absolute 8.0 19.5 -3.4 wide to support corporate loan growth. However, we caution that with the Fed
Relative 3.3 10.8 -2.8 giving indications of slower rate hikes in 2019, we could see fewer BI rate
adjustments as well as a rapidly narrowing spread between bond yields and
(D-1yr=100)
JCI BMRI lending rates.
Reiterate Trading Buy recommendation with TP of IDR8,700
120
110
100
90
We reiterate our Trading Buy recommendation on BMRI and retain our target price
80 of IDR8,700. Our target price implies a P/B of 2.0x our 12-month rolling forward
70
BPS estimate. Key risks to our call include decreasing bond yields, slowing domestic
60
50 growth, and tightening liquidity.
1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 10/18 11/18 12/18 1/19

PT. Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia FY (Dec.) 12/14 12/15 12/16 12/17 12/18F 12/19F
Total OP (IDRbn) 55,878.2 65,656.0 73,343.9 77,136.5 83,189.4 93,925.2
Financials
PPOP (IDRbn) 31,213.2 37,638.9 42,741.4 42,750.2 47,100.8 52,996.8
Lee Young Jun Net OP (IDRbn) 25,978.1 26,339.6 18,612.7 27,169.8 32,290.8 37,070.5
+62-21-515-1140 Net Profit (IDRbn) 19,871.9 20,335.6 13,806.6 20,639.7 24,188.2 27,653.9
lee.youngjun@miraeasset.co.id
EPS (IDR) 426 436 296 442 518 593
BPS (IDR) 2,200 2,509 3,224 3,573 3,908 4,343
P/E (x) 12.6 10.6 19.5 18.1 15.0 13.2
P/B (x) 2.4 1.8 1.8 2.2 2.0 1.8
ROE (%) 21.3 19.0 10.2 13.2 14.2 14.4
ROA (%) 2.6 2.3 1.4 1.9 2.1 2.1
Note: Net profit refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT.
January 22, 2019 Bank Mandiri

Figure 2. Downtrend in corporate loan due to downsizing of

Figure 1. Loan growth by segment (quarterly)
mid corporate loans
(QoQ, %) 3Q18 (%) (%)
25 2Q18 73 Corporate and commercial (L) 37
1Q18 Consumer, small and micro (R)
20 72
1.7 35
15 71
7.6
10 2.0 70 33
17.0
2.4 2.0
5 5.8 69
4.4 9.2
5.3 31
1.2 2.9 1.9 68
0
-3.3 -4.6
-5 -9.1 67 29

-1.0 -17.2 66
-10
27
-15 65

64 25
-20
1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 1Q16 1Q17 1Q18
Corporate Commercial Small Micro Consumer Total

Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

Figure 3. Deposit growth by segment (quarterly) Figure 4. Net interest margin trajectory

(QoQ, %) 3Q18 (%) Net interest margins Yields on assets Cost of funds
2Q18
12 12
1Q18
10
8 10

6 4.0 3.5
9.4 8
4
6.8
2 4.4 4.4
6
0 0.3
-1.2
-2
-5.7 4
-4 -7.7 -8.5
-6 2
-8 -0.2
-10 0
Savings account Demand deposits Time deposits Total deposits 3Q11 3Q12 3Q13 3Q14 3Q15 3Q16 3Q17 3Q18

Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

Figure 5. Asset quality metrics Figure 6. 12-month forward P/B band

(%) (%) (IDR)

NPL coverage ratio (L)
250 4.0 10,000 2.5x
NPL ratio (R)
9,000
2.0x
200 3.5 8,000

7,000

6,000 1.5x
150 3.0
5,000
1.0x
4,000
100 2.5
3,000

2,000
50 2.0
1,000

0
0 1.5 1/041/051/061/071/081/091/101/111/121/131/141/151/161/171/181/19
3Q11 3Q12 3Q13 3Q14 3Q15 3Q16 3Q17 3Q18

Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research 2

 January 22, 2019 Bank Mandiri

Table 1. 11M18 earnings review (IDRbn, %)

Nov 17 Oct 18 Nov 18 MoM YoY 11M17 11M18 YoY
Net interest Income 2,519.1 3,916.5 3,720.6 -0.1 5.2 40,924.7 42,026.1 2.7
Non-Interest Income 925.2 2,028.1 1,677.6 13.3 37.0 17,717.0 20,433.9 15.3
Fee and commission income 679.2 966.5 870.9 -11.7 -2.0 9,690.4 9,813.3 1.3
Trading related income 130.9 158.8 327.2 123.2 8.3 3,374.6 3,686.3 9.2
Other operating income 115.1 902.8 479.5 20.7 127.2 4,652.1 6,934.4 49.1
Total operating profit 3,444.2 5,944.6 5,398.2 4.5 15.0 58,641.8 62,460.0 6.5
G&A expenses 1,739.9 2,474.3 2,347.8 6.6 12.4 24,203.6 25,108.7 3.7
Pre-provisioning OP (PPOP) 1,704.4 3,470.4 3,050.5 2.9 17.1 34,438.2 37,351.3 8.5
Loan loss provisions 105.3 915.3 819.4 19.0 32.9 10,980.4 10,706.8 -2.5
Net operating profit 1,599.1 2,555.1 2,231.0 -2.8 11.3 23,457.8 26,644.6 13.6
Net non-operating income -11.8 -2.4 -1.3 -1,679.1 -2,903.9 -6.6 31.8 N/A
Pre-tax profit 1,587.3 2,552.7 2,229.7 -1.2 13.1 23,451.2 26,676.4 13.8
Tax expenses 431.4 538.6 451.8 -3.0 15.6 4,742.3 5,226.9 10.2
Minority interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A 0.0 0.0 N/A
Attributable net profit 1,155.9 2,014.1 1,777.8 -0.8 12.4 18,708.9 21,449.5 14.6
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research 3

January 22, 2019 Bank Mandiri

Bank Mandiri (BMRI/Trading Buy/TP IDR8,700)

Income Statement (Summarized) Balance Sheet (Summarized)

(IDRbn) 12/16 12/17 12/18F 12/19F (IDRbn) 12/16 12/17 12/18F 12/19F
Net interest income 51,825.4 52,327.2 55,780.3 63,880.3 Cash and cash equivalents 22,907 24,269 26,331 28,701
Non-interest income 21,518.5 24,809.3 27,409.1 30,044.9 Current account with BI 111,262 104,625 110,473 119,919
Net commission income 13,460.4 14,315.6 15,494.6 16,632.2 Placement at other banks 25,287 32,547 35,470 42,755
Trading related income 2,382.9 3,937.5 3,946.7 4,435.5 Securities assets 160,185 164,965 188,480 199,367
Other non-interest income 5,675.3 6,556.3 7,967.8 8,977.2 Net loans and advances 643,351 705,612 787,795 887,144
Total operating profit 73,343.9 77,136.5 83,189.4 93,925.2 Net loans 616,706 677,922 752,975 848,568
SG&A expenses 30,602.5 34,386.3 36,088.6 40,928.4 Gross Loans 649,323 712,038 794,751 894,927
Pre-provisioning OP 42,741.4 42,750.2 47,100.8 52,996.8 (Allowance for credit losses) -32,617 -34,116 -41,777 -46,359
Net provisions 24,128.7 15,580.4 14,810.0 15,926.3 Total assets 1,038,706 1,124,701 1,246,825 1,385,178
Net operating profit 18,612.7 27,169.8 32,290.8 37,070.5 Total customer deposits 762,501 815,807 881,371 997,229
Non-operating income -39.8 -12.9 74.5 76.9 Demand deposits 187,052 203,390 220,816 259,499
Pretax profit 18,573.0 27,156.9 32,365.3 37,147.4 Savings Deposits 302,328 336,913 357,178 393,878
Corporate tax 3,922.8 5,713.8 7,326.2 8,626.8 Time Deposits 273,121 275,504 303,377 343,852
Minority interest 843.6 803.4 850.9 866.8 Other deposits 9,668 8,795 17,590 19,173
Attributable net profit 13,806.6 20,639.7 24,188.2 27,653.9 Borrowings 36,105 35,895 53,843 57,719
Growth (%) Debentures 8,954 16,776 22,639 24,676
Net interest income 14.2 1.0 6.6 14.5 Total liabilities 885,336 954,695 1,060,663 1,178,143
Non-interest income 6.0 15.3 10.5 9.6 Capital stock 11,667 11,667 11,667 11,667
Total operating profit 11.7 5.2 7.8 12.9 Capital surplus 17,316 17,316 17,316 17,316
SG&A expenses 9.2 12.4 5.0 13.4 Accum. translation adjustments 24,633 26,484 24,073 27,469
Pre-provisioning operating profit 13.6 0.0 10.2 12.5 Retained earnings 94,597 109,024 127,111 143,880
Net provisions 113.5 -35.4 -4.9 7.5 Non-controlling interest 2,916 3,287 3,768 4,368
Net operating profit -29.3 46.0 18.8 14.8 Total shareholders' equity 153,370 170,006 186,162 207,034
Attributable net profit -32.1 49.5 17.2 14.3

Key performance indicators Balance sheet growth rate

12/16 12/17 12/18F 12/19F (%) 12/16 12/17 12/18F 12/19F
Per share data Cash and cash equivalents -8.8 5.9 8.5 9.0
EPS (IDR) 296 442 518 593 Current account with BI 33.3 -6.0 5.6 8.5
EPS growth (%) -32.1 49.5 17.2 14.3 Placement at other banks 23.9 28.7 9.0 20.5
BPS (IDR) 3,224 3,573 3,908 4,343 Securities assets 8.4 3.0 14.3 5.8
BPS growth (%) 28.5 10.8 9.4 11.1 Net loans and advances 10.2 9.7 11.6 12.6
DPS (IDR) 131 131 233 267 Net loans 9.3 9.9 11.1 12.7
Key ratios (%) Gross Loans 10.7 9.7 11.6 12.6
Non-int. income/ Total OP 29.3 32.2 32.9 32.0 (Allowance for credit losses) 46.4 4.6 22.5 11.0
Cost-to-income 41.7 44.6 43.4 43.6 Total assets 14.1 8.3 10.9 11.1
Provisions/ Loans 4.00 2.33 2.00 1.89 Total customer deposits 12.7 7.0 8.0 13.1
Tax rate 21.0 22.0 23.0 24.0 CASA deposits 8.6 8.7 8.6 17.5
Loan-to-deposit ratio 85.2 87.3 90.2 89.7 Savings Deposits 11.3 11.4 6.0 10.3
Yields on IEA 9.63 9.18 8.70 9.30 Time Deposits 17.5 0.9 10.1 13.3
Yields on IBL 3.19 3.19 2.87 3.37 Other deposits -25.4 -9.0 100.0 9.0
Margins on IEA 6.51 6.04 5.88 6.00 Borrowings -3.7 -0.6 50.0 7.2
Spreads on IEA 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 Marketable Securities Issued 285.8 87.4 34.9 9.0
ROA 1.4 1.9 2.1 2.1 Total liabilities 12.0 7.8 11.1 11.1
ROE 10.2 13.2 14.2 14.4 Capital stock 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Balance sheet gearing Capital surplus 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Avg. adjusted equity (IDRbn) 135,719 156,434 170,189 192,530 Accum. translation adjustments NM 7.5 -9.1 14.1
Average total assets (IDRbn) 960,423 1,068,766 1,159,775 1,316,001 Retained earnings 18.4 15.3 16.6 13.2
Financial leverage (x) 7.1 6.8 6.8 6.8 Non-controlling interest 20.4 12.7 14.6 15.9
Avg. equity / Avg. assets (%) 14.1 14.6 14.7 14.6 Total shareholders' equity 28.4 10.8 9.5 11.2
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research estimates

Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research 4

January 22, 2019 Bank Mandiri

APPENDIX 1

Important Disclosures & Disclaimers

Disclosures
As of the publication date, PT. Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia, and/or its affiliates do not have any special interest with the subject company and
do not own 1% or more of the subject company's shares outstanding.

Stock Ratings Industry Ratings

Buy Relative performance of 20% or greater Overweight Fundamentals are favorable or improving
Trading Buy Relative performance of 10% or greater, but with volatility Neutral Fundamentals are steady without any material changes
Hold Relative performance of -10% and 10% Underweight Fundamentals are unfavorable or worsening
Sell Relative performance of -10%
* Our investment rating is a guide to the relative return of the stock versus the market over the next 12 months.
* Although it is not part of the official ratings at Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia, we may call a trading opportunity in case there is a technical or
short-term material development.
* The target price was determined by the research analyst through valuation methods discussed in this report, in part based on the analyst’s
estimate of future earnings.
The achievement of the target price may be impeded by risks related to the subject securities and companies, as well as general market and
economic conditions.

Analyst Certification
Opinions expressed in this publication about the subject securities and companies accurately reflect the personal views of the Analysts primarily
responsible for this report. PT. Mirae Asset Seukritas Indonesia (“Mirae Asset Daewoo”) policy prohibits its Analysts and members of their
households from owning securities of any company in the Analyst’s area of coverage, and the Analysts do not serve as an officer, director or
advisory board member of the subject companies. Except as otherwise specified herein, the Analysts have not received any compensation or any
other benefits from the subject companies in the past 12 months and have not been promised the same in connection with this report. No part of
the compensation of the Analysts was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report
but, like all employees of Mirae Asset Daewoo, the Analysts receive compensation that is determined by overall firm profitability, which includes
revenues from, among other business units, the institutional equities, investment banking, proprietary trading and private client division. At the
time of publication of this report, the Analysts do not know or have reason to know of any actual, material conflict of interest of the Analyst or
Mirae Asset Daewoo except as otherwise stated herein.

Disclaimers
This report is published by Mirae Asset Daewoo, a broker-dealer registered in the Republic of Indonesia and a member of the Indonesia Stock
Exchange. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith and from sources believed to be reliable, but such
information has not been independently verified and Mirae Asset Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as
to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein or of any translation into English from the
Indonesian language. In case of an English translation of a report prepared in the Indonesian language, the original Indonesian language report
may have been made available to investors in advance of this report.
The intended recipients of this report are sophisticated institutional investors who have substantial knowledge of the local business environment,
its common practices, laws and accounting principles and no person whose receipt or use of this report would violate any laws and regulations or
subject Mirae Asset Daewoo and its affiliates to registration or licensing requirements in any jurisdiction shall receive or make any use hereof.
This report is for general information purposes only and it is not and shall not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to effect
transactions in any securities or other financial instruments. The report does not constitute investment advice to any person and such person shall
not be treated as a client of Mirae Asset Daewoo by virtue of receiving this report. This report does not take into account the particular investment
objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. The report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent
judgment. Information and opinions contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The price and value of
the investments referred to in this report and the income from them may depreciate or appreciate, and investors may incur losses on
investments. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur.
Mirae Asset Daewoo, its affiliates and their directors, officers, employees and agents do not accept any liability for any loss arising out of the use
hereof.
Mirae Asset Daewoo may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the opinions presented in this
report. The reports may reflect different assumptions, views and analytical methods of the analysts who prepared them. Mirae Asset Daewoo may
make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the opinions and views expressed in this research report. Mirae Asset Daewoo, its affiliates
and their directors, officers, employees and agents may have long or short positions in any of the subject securities at any time and may make a
purchase or sale, or offer to make a purchase or sale, of any such securities or other financial instruments from time to time in the open market or
otherwise, in each case either as principals or agents. Mirae Asset Daewoo and its affiliates may have had, or may be expecti ng to enter into,
business relationships with the subject companies to provide investment banking, market-making or other financial services as are permitted
under applicable laws and regulations.
No part of this document may be copied or reproduced in any manner or form or redistributed or published, in whole or in part, without the prior
written consent of Mirae Asset Daewoo.

Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research 5

January 22, 2019 Bank Mandiri

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responsibility for the contents of this report in the U.S. The securities described in this report may not have been registered under the U.S.
Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and, in such case, may not be offered or sold in the U.S. or to U.S. persons absent registration or an applicable
exemption from the registration requirements.
Hong Kong: This document has been approved for distribution in Hong Kong by Mirae Asset Securities (HK) Ltd., which is regulated by the Hong
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All Other Jurisdictions: Customers in all other countries who wish to effect a transaction in any securities referenced in this report should contact
Mirae Asset Daewoo or its affiliates only if distribution to or use by such customer of this report would not violate applicable laws and regulations
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Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research 6